LyrArc Article Gist
Der Spiegel has this interview with Robert Habeck, Economy Minister of Germany, on how Germany will cope with a step by step cutoff of oil and gas supplies from Russia in winter 2022. Habeck says this is likely to happen. Der Spiegel ask Habeck questions about the various actions Habeck is taking to get Germany through this winter. This includes bringing back coal plants that were being phased out, plans for industry to pass on gas that it is not using, setting priorities for homes over industry where possible, providing aid to people with low incomes who cannot afford to heat their homes this winter. Habeck calls for greater efforts for conservation that can reduce gas consumption by 10% with simple steps such as shorter time in the shower,  setting the thermostat down by 1 or 2 degrees in winter, using air conditioning less often, cooking in a way that uses gas efficiently, increasing insulation in the home, better distribution of air in the home, and so on. How much time does Habeck spend in the shower- less than 5 minutes. He leaves home by 7 and gets back late at night after work. Does he think Germans have the grit and determination to meet the challenge Putin is posing of creating disaffectionmnin German society through first gas prices and then gas shortages this winter? Habeck believes Germans can and will respond in a way that takes Germany through this winter and through all the threats Russia under Putin is posing. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Rachel Ensign's WSJ report shows huge disparity in incomes and spending that has happened in the US even with the best efforts and intentions of the Biden administration in 2020-2024. US cumulative excess savings by income for the bottom 90% are a mere $291 billion compared to $1.2 trillion for the top 10%, 4 times as large. As a result about half of consumer spending comes from the top 10% in incomes says the WSJ. (Moody's Analytics). It provides clues on why Biden and even less so Harris failed to convince Americans, the middle class, blue collar workers, and others that large social gaps, income disparities and wealth disparities gap were being bridged under Democrats. And makes it harder for Republicans and Democrats alike to address such huge gaps built up over time by outshoring jobs and manufacturing, the 2009 financial crisis from banks speculation, the pandemic and supply shock cost of living crisis. As the $2.6 trillion in pandemic assistance from Biden faded people in the bottom 80% dipped into savings to pay for rising cost of living as supply chain bottlenecks and price gouging sent prices of groceries, housing, apartment rentals, cars up significantly. This has'nt happened to the top 10% or even the top 20% who continue to spend in the same way as before prices went up. Something like this is also happening in Europe and in China, India fueling and anti-incumbency mood, and dissatisfaction with governments. The Net Worth of the top 20% has grown by 45% or $35 trillion since 2019 compared to $14 trillion for the bottom 80%. (Moody's Analytics) ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Higher oil prices help the U.S. oil industry which is on track to be larger than the oil industry of Russia, now that prices exceed $70 a barrel. Yet another $10 or $15 increase in oil prices could lead to reducing economic growth. Efforts by OPEC to cut production and coordination with Russia has taken most of the excess supply out of the global oil markets, and the economic growth in U.S. and Europe has increased demand.

Analysts say the higher oil prices will negate the benefits from tax cuts for low income families.

LyrArc Article Gist
Highest economic growth since the Second World War predicted for Britain in 2021, says the Bank of England.

LyrArc Article Gist
Bolivia's economy showed 6.5% growth in 2013 and the portion of the people in extreme poverty has dropped from 38% in 2005 to 24% in 2013. Policies of president Morales are winning praise for being prudent from the IMF and the World Bank. A greater share of the revenues from natural gas production and high natural gas prices, Bolivia's main export products, has enabled the government to build international reserves to $14 billion. This is half the country's GDP, and the highest ratio of reserves to GDP in the world. Morales has adopted socialist policies and at the same time provided fiscally responsible management, showing the two are not inconsistent and can be adapted to local conditions to build a middle class and improve living conditions.

LyrArc Article Gist
For the first time in three decades US economic growth will be much faster than China's. Second quarter 2021 growth in the US was 12.2% compared to 7.9% in China, and will continue to be much higher for five consecutive quarters. This report in the WSJ says it is the result of the US response to the Covid pandemic. The US vaccination drive, massive fiscal stimulus and near zero interest rates have helped, including the confidence generated by the $1 trillion infrastructure investments planned for this decade. Over the longer term Capital Economic estimates China's GDP around 2030 will drop to 2% growth with demographic decline, just as the demographic factors favor Indian growth to levels that China has seen in the last two decades. This was the plan and vision set out by the Indian prime minister for 2047, on the 100th anniversary of independence. For the future government help has helped US households accumulate $2.6 trillion in excess household savings, which Moody's estimates is 7 times that in China.  In the longer term gaps will have narrowed between Asia and Europe, the US, which is a good thing. More will need to be done in Africa and Latin America. Much of the talk about who leads ignores the local needs in cities and towns across all parts of the world for a better quality of life, better education, better nutrition, better healthcare, meeting aspirations of young people, and supporting hope for a better future. ...