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Alan Meltzer would like to see the Fed reverse its quantitative easing, and lower excess reserves gradually starting now. By this he hopes to see the Fed avoid the mistake of making a big shift from excessive ease to severe contraction further down the road. He also warns agains excessive deficit spending. He says a weak economy is not the time to cut spending or raise taxes, and he is not talking of draconian immediate steps. He would like to see a multiyear program to increase fiscal probity and reduce deficits size and frequency. As it stands now he takes both parties to task for lack of fiscal discipline and honest accounting. About $1 trillion in deficits each year on average for next 10 years is in the works, and is an underestimate because the savings of $200-$300 billion in medicare spending have still to be realized, and states do not have funds for increased Medicaid spending, and payments to doctors have still to go down by 25%. Chinese government purchases of half our debt will postpone the day of reckoning says Meltzer, but far better for us to strike at the problem now, before we blow a hole in the dollar and start a downturn. See the separate report on the shrinking UK economy....

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China's BYD started in electric batteries and expanded into electric cars. It has emerged as the dominant electric car company in the world as China now has half of the electric cars on the road in the world. 35% of exports of electric cars are from China. Keith Bradsher of NYT reports from Shenzen that its first car was made in 2007 of poor quality, similar to Toyota in the 1930's as it tried car manufacturing for the first time. It has surpassed Tesla in making electric cars. In each of the last 2 years it has increased electric car sales by one million to reach electric car sales on 3 million. EV sales in China were up in 2023 to 9.49 million cars giving BYD the largest share of 31%., by comparison US electric car sales were 1.2 million. New assembly lines are being built in Brazil, Hungary and Thailand. And new lines are planned for Mexico and Indonesia. This kind of growth was seen only by General Motors in 1946 after the end of the war. It also shows the progress China is making. In solar panels something like the addition of 900 million solar panels meeting the entire increase in electricity demand for each year, so that emissions targets can be met earlier than planned to tackle climate change.  The same changes are happening in electric cars. China now has 40% of electric cars or gasoline/electric plug in cars going up to 50%. For export China is building large carrier ships, the first that will take 5000 cars for export to the Netherlands. The lowest priced electric car model the Seagull was priced at $11,000. BYD's lowering of manufacturing costs have given it the ability to price the cars to attract new car buyers.  Wang Chuanfu who studied at Central Southern University in Changsha known for its battery research, was an engineer who started the company in the 1990's to make batteris for Motorola. Between 2003-2006 he experimented with making cars in the hope of making electric cars. Stalled efforts in 2009 and 2011 were met with arenewed effort in 2016 trying a new approach to cut costs by developing a battery where supplies of lithium or cobalt would not be a constraint. He developed a new battery using iron and phospate to replace lithium cobalt batteries. A big break came in 2020 with the Blade battery that increased range to the level of cobalt lithium batteries at a much smaller cost. BYD hired German Audi designers for new model design. This time BYD was in the right position to build a car company matching all others with costs lower by about 35% than VW for some models. This comes from- lower costs to make in China, making its own parts inside the company for 75% of parts compared to VW only about 35%, and by the savings from its battery research.  BYD has shown ability to shift with market needs and opportunities. In 2022 assisted driving was facing hurdles, BYD had second thoughts about the new technology, by 2023 as it was increasing in use BYD committed $14 billion in autonomous driving technology. Driving range is a problem for people in urban areas going back to their villages in China. BYD has an advantage here compared to Tesla- it makes hybrid plug ins that account for half its sales. Toyota has also had emphasis on hybrid plug ins where it missed the opportunity was that it moved very slowly on all electric cars not realizing how fast things were moving outside it's world. This is the situation America also faces in 2024 and beyond who can deliver on the infrastructure capabilities, new research ,and tap American potential to compete in this new world where one innovation will follow another. ...

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The severe impact of sanctions on availability of car parts in Russia is shown here in this Guardian report. Few industries are impacted by Russia's total isolation as the car industry says this report. Car sales in Russia have dropped by 84% according to the Association for European Business and car prices are up 50%. Import substitution is not working for the car industry say experts. The owner of a car repair firm in Moscow says speculation for car parts is rampant with parts cost up by 800% and original oil up 1000%. Reports show counterfeit or stolen parts flooding the market. The airline industry is also impacted by the severe shortage of aircraft parts. One Russian pilot says there are enough aircraft wheels and pads for one month maximum. A manager of Sukhoi Superjet says he gives the Russian airline industry one year if nothing changes. Safety concerns of pilots are being ignored says one pilot. Parts are being cannibalized from older planes for new ones to keep them running. With the nation's automobile and airline industries affected in this way the quality of living is affected in Russia only 3 months into this war. Having a large inflow of revenues from oil and gas for the 6-12 month period that it takes Europe to respond, and a large reserve fund of about $610 billion is not a real reflection of the strength of a country. In today's interconnected system of supply chain no degree of industrial strength would allow a nation to wage war through invasion with impunity without finding itself in severe difficulties for the quality of life in the country as the world community responds. The response is to prevent the wrong lessons being drawn by one nation using full scale war to occupy another nation and getting away with it.    ...

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Modi refers to an ecosystem that continuously shrinks the pool of capital from government revenues, revenues intended to fund development roads, bridges and other infrastructure illegally siphoned away, that stalled and suffocated rapid development in India for 75 years. Without foreign investment there can be no rapid development in India. Without strong and efficient institutions foreign investment has not come to India in the last 30 years in the way it has come to China. These institutions of good governance that prevent such siphoning away of revenues enable 100% of every dollar or rupee of taxes to go into development essential for funding infrastructure, climate infrastructure, logistics and the other inputs of capital, labor, energy and land to build manufacturing capabilities. An ever widening pool of the inputs of capital, labor and land year after year- a process that Japan, then South Korea, then China has accomplished is possible. I It is only now taking place in India. What Mohandas Gandhi, Nehru and Sardar Patel failed to grasp in the 30's, 40's and 50's is that it was possible to have an independent India and still remain a backward undeveloped nation for a staggering period of 75 years or almost half of the period the British ruled India. What Mao failed to grasp in China and which was corrected by other leaders to make China an advanced economy able to fulfill the aspirations of the Chinese people, is also the situation that prevailed in India. Post independence leaders in China and India both isolated their economies, both limited human potential, both let institutions fail in good governance.  It is only now moving India into the process of developing an advanced developed economy by 2040, able to fulfill the aspirations of a youthful population of 1.2 billion people. ...

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The House Energy and Commerce Committee passes ahealthcare plan with 31 to 28 vote. The Senate version takes adifferent approach. The Senate version has moved away from the employer requirements in the House bills. The Senate committee is moving towards aproposal to require employers to contribute if their workers are getting government assisted insurance coverage. It has also moved away from the surtax on the wealthy in the House bills which is expected to raise $500 billion. Instead the Senate version proposes an excise tax on insurers for health plans that offer generous benefits. Under the current bill being considered in the Senate such a insurance policy tax could raise $180 billion. The Senate Finance Committee is also different in that instead of the public insurance option it offers nonprofit health insurance cooperatives as an alternative. There is agreement between the two parties on anumber of things so the debate will center on the public insurance option, surtax on the wealthy to pay for the plan, and the requirement for an employer mandated coverage for all employees....

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A study by professors at Yale, University of Southern California, and UC Davis, (Geanakoplos, Magill, Quinzii) uses a MY ratio of persons 35-49 years in age to persons 25-34 years in age to predict stock market performance trend. This number is expected to rise in years 2018 to 2035 as more millenials come into an age when they need to start investing in the stock market. This kind of model would show a much better performance for the stock market and S&P 500 for the next decade than for the period 2000-2015, years of the financial crisis and recovery.  Part of the reason not mentioned here is the gradual completion of the recovery itself from the financial crisis and the controls put in place to prevent a recurrence of past mistakes in financial markets. Needs for infrastructure and defense spending, efforts to ensure more favorable trade relations, efforts to help the middle class, university students in future budgets to increase opportunity, would create more opportunities for equity price growth. ...

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Merkel visits China in August 2012 with a large trade delegation including heads of SAP, Siemens, VW and BASF. Germany's largest export market is in the eurozone, at the same time growth in exports has surged to China and India. Between 2005 and 2011, German exports to the EU countries increased by 24%, to the U.S. by 6.3%, and to China by 206%, according to German government data. German investment in China was 26 billion euros in 2011. By contrast China's investment in Germany is small- only about 1.2 billion euros. The impression is that large firms such as VW and Siemens make up most of the investment. In actual fact the German Chamber of Commerce in China says 5000 German companies operate in China, employing 220,000 people, and three fourths of this is from the German "Mittelstand," midsize family owned companies. The Foundation for Family Businesses, representing 400 German Mittelstand companies says it needs more help regarding intellectual property protection in China and is not as well represented in the German trade delegation....

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India's demographics show one startling fact. By 2020, the average age of Indians will be 29. This is happening just as the rest of the world is aging very fast. In the next 15 years India will have 130 million more people in the 20 to 49 age group. This compares with a shrinking in population of 100 million in that age group in developed countries and China, according to the U.N. Population Division. The problem facing India is malnutrition that runs as high as 43% for children with half the mothers anemic, weak educational system at the primary and secondary school levels especially in the government run schools, lack of good governance in the most populated states such as Uttar Pradesh in the Ganges plains which has 200 million people, the consequent overburdening of cities which have no plans to manage the migration of the rural poor to the cities. India has to find ways to fill the huge gaps in getting better nutrition, education, dignity and sense of opportunity, and work for the growing numbers....

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Barcelona's football club is unique for several reasons and may support time tested ideas of good ways of managing an organization. It is unique because it is a source of Catalan pride- Catalan having suffered under the rule of General Franco. The Club is owned by its members, called socis in Catalan. There are 150,000 members. Management is responsible to 2500 randomly selected socis and 600 senior socis. Barca also has a boarding school, La Masia, where it brings up talented athletes from a young age, almost like a children's choir in European cathedrals. The boarding school stresses character building and values of team spirit, self-sacrifice, perseverance. Messi is a product of this school's training and support from a very young age. This special feeling of the Catalan spirit, of which Barca becomes the embodiment, makes the club something that may not be easily created elsewhere. Yet the Catalans may have learned some things about nurturing talent, character and team spirit that they have used to setup their unique arrangement. ...

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Under a proposed capital infusion into Peugeot the French government, Dongfeng Motor of China, and the Peugeot family would each control 15% of the company. Dongfeng and the French government would buy new shares of about $7.50 to $8 each, and providing 800 million euros each. The Peugeot family would provide 100 million euros. Currently the Peugeot family controls 25.4% of the shares and 38.1% of voting rights. Earlier GM sold its 7% stake in Peugeot, and Peugeot turned to its partner in China for the capital increase. Peugeot shares declined by 11% to 10.21 euros on Jan 23, 2014, as a result of investor concerns about the prospect of three different shareholders interests. Peugeot expects to use the capital increase for technology investments as it struggles to come out of a prolonged slump in its European markets. One of the conditions made by Dongfeng Motor is that the current chairman Thierry Peugeot be succeeded by an executive not connected to the Peugeot family or the French government....

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BP will cut an additional 5000 jobs by mid 2009 with most of these cuts at places like its London headquarters. This is on top of about 9500 jobs that are part of a plan to sell gasoline stations in the USA. The refinery that had a fire in Texas will be back to production at full capacity by mid 2008. Profit excluding one-time items was $4.0 billion for 4rd quarter 2007, less than analysts expected because of declining production and smaller refining margins. BP sees oil at between $60 and $90 a barrel for 2008 and 2009, and plans to increase production to 4 million barrels a day in 2009 and 4.3 million barrels a day in 2012. New production will come from places like Canada, Oman and Libya. Spending for exploration will increase by $3 billion to $22 billion this year. Under Browne BP had stayed away from Canadian oil sands, but Hayward has formed a joint venture with Husky Energy to link a BP refinery in Ohio with Husky's Sunrise oil sands project in Alberta.

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The sheer glory and joy of Bach cycle from St Thomas Choir in Leipzig at Christmas can now be heard in this audio and video of 1 hour 56 minutes from DW.com. 73,000 visitors will visit Leipzig for the Bach Festival in 2021. The theme of the cycle this year is salvation. Here is an opportunity to hear this monumentally creative event right in your own home. Other videos show the new Elbphilharmonie in Hamburg that has already brought 15 million visitors. It sits atop a former brick warehouse once used for storing cocoa- now 16,000 square meters of glass panelling built by a Swiss architecture firm. Recently 800 people were vaccinated here in Europe's classiest vaccination center.

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French parliamentary elections will be held June 12 and June 19. This report in FR24 looks at the work of Jean Luc Melenchon's parliamentary group in the National Assembly in the last 5 years. He leads a coalition of Socialist, Greens, Communist and other parties that is expected to either form a government or be the second largest group in parliament with over 200 seats. The program of the Melenchon led parties is for an increase in the minimum wage, protecting incomes of workers and families, and reversing years of neglect of the social fabric of society.

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A dairy farmer in Petaluma, California, shows that storm water runoff capture is worth the effort. He has collected 670,000 gallons of water so far this winter enough for 700 cows in his herd for 1 month. Governor Newsom has ordered the state of California to collect storm water runoff from rain storms that happened this year following three dry years.

Researchers say that water runoff is a serious proposition. About 2.5 million people can have enough water for 1 year if the water is collected in southern California and the San Francisco Bay area.

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Finland makes the decision to join NATO on May 12, 2022. NATO's land. border will increase from 1215 kilometres or 745 miles to 2600 kilometres. Sweden is expected to join NATO in a paradigm shift as it has been neutral for 200 years. Once Finland joins Sweden would be alone in the Baltic if it did not join NATO. Both Finland and Sweden have integrated their defenses and built up defenses at a time when other European states had not invested in the military. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg has welcomed FInland and Sweden joining NATO.

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During a meeting with British prime minister Boris Johnson, German chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany will stop importing Russian oil by the end of this year and stop importing Russian gas very soon. Johnson said Germany will stop importing Russian gas by 2024, and that a lot of infrasgtructure had to be put in place. He called the German decision a big one and said that he applauded the German decision which was a seismic one to move away from Russian hydrocarbons. Scholz said this would be permanent and that Germany would be 100% on renewable energy in 20 years.

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Images of 5 galaxies in the constellation Pegasus will be shown by president Biden at a White House event today July 11. The pictures are from the $10 billion James Webb telescope now 1 million miles from earth and looking back at distant galaxies from the beginning of time. The Pegasus constellation is a mind boggling distance away- 290 million light- years away.

NASA, the European Space Agency and the Canadian Space Agency have together developed the Webb telescope, that is 100 times more powerful than the Hubble telescope that was there before.

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Australian prime minister Morrison says it is imperative that Australia build its own guided weapons capability as a priority. On the 100th Anniversary of the Australian Air Force he announced a $550 million investment in building a new manufacturing facility for its own weapons, so that Australia is not dependent on long supply chains which could be disrupted. Funds will be fast tracked to build Australia's own production in 3 years, and a partner will be chosen. Australia sees China's new posture as a threat in the Indian Ocean region.

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This picture of Indian finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman picking out vegetables on a visit to the vegetable market and talking to vegetable vendors in Mylapore, Chennai, will be remembered for a long time for its casual feeling and simplicity. This is not just the Sitharaman as cabinet minister- this is also with Modi one of the proponents of the free rations food program that provided 5 kilograms of rice or wheat to 800 million Indians, with vegetables and lentil dhals, during the pandemic. This is what built the resilience of the world's largest section of humanity during the pandemic.

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WSJ's Kate Linebaugh talks to Pedro Pizzaro CEO of Edison electric utility company in California on the impact of president Biden's $369 Climate bill on California's energy needs. He describes what his company is doing today with the wild fires, and how the Biden bill will help the transition to renewables in a state that requires 100% renewables by 2045. His company Edison is at 35% renewables today. By 2045 energy use will increase by about 60% in California and he is looking ahead to that future.