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A steady decline in the price of Brent crude from $115 to $92 in the period from June to October 2014. Slow or no economic growth in Europe, and declining growth in China was the main reason. A cut in oil price by Saudi Arabia in September with lack of coordination in OPEC to control supplies when prices are declining, and increasing supplies from the U.S., provided additional basis for price declines. This price decline comes as large energy companies invested heavily in mega-projects to bring more oil supplies when prices were up to $128 by mid-2012. Consulting company EY estimate is that there are 163 such mega projects worth $1.1 trillion underway, most behind schedule and over budget. The projects were based on oil prices being over $100. Oil field development costs are increasing rapidly. Douglas Westwood, a consulting firm, estimate is that productivity of upstream capital spending has fallen by a factor of 5 since 2000, declining by 5% a year, as oilfield equipment and services demand exceeds supply. Greater technological sophistication also adds to cost such as Shell's Nobel Bully platform for deep sea drilling. See link- Noble Bully. Oil majors are now cutting spending, and some planned big projects are on hold. About $300 billion in assets may be up for sale. Shell plans to cut spending by 20% in 2014, Exxon and Chevron 5-6%. Shale oil projects in America need about $57 to be profitable with an internal rate of return of 10%, by one estimate. Yet this is an average and does not reflect differing producer costs. This estimate does not reflect the high cost producers, some of whom need closer to $110....

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Nathaniel Tapin says about China's debt laden economy and struggling property developers that this has been seen before. What matters most is the confidence household borrowers have in the country to buy homes and spend versus putting more money into savings. And this confidence that that has been the strength of the economy for three decades is fading. About 12 million jobs in the internet platform economy were lost in 2020-2022. This absorbed a fourth of the Chinese graduating from colleges each year. The manufacturing sector is affected by declining demand overseas and cannot pick up for this. Much of this is a result of Xi's government efforts to tamp down debt of housing developers, to reduce housing speculation, to limit the power of internet companies, and develop a fairer economy, and these were policy decisions not easily reversed. A pervasive pessimism is leading to a disinclination to spend or buy a house. Surveys of Bank of China show inclination to save increased by 15 percentage points to 58% in second quarter 2023. In the past Chinese put money in homes as a way to deposit money in a savings account, homes were sold even before they were built. This cash was passed on to property developers and in turn the local governments benefited by selling the land to property developers. After property developers could not pay interest on debt and collapsed the households decided to pay down their mortgages and $28 billion went to pay down residential mortgage debt in first 6 months of 2023.  ...

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This WSJ editorial in August 2013- with the sharp depreciation of currencies in India and Indonesia, with Thailand and Malaysia expected to follow- says this will help improve the productivity of investments in emerging markets, but hurt revenue growth of American companies in emerging markets. Ben Bernake's QE monetary easing is proving difficult to unwind as experts fom Meltzer, Feldstein, and Taylor, and the Jounral's own editorials had warned. As the U.S. and the eurozone recover capital is moving back to developed countries.

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London could lose 66,000 out of 353,000 finance professionals according to Centre for economics and Business Research. About $2.4 trillion flowed in and out of the UK in 2006 only $400 billion less than the USA according to McKinsey Global Institute. The London Stock Exchange has seen international listings fall by by 70% in capitalization year to date as many emerging market companies list in their home countries financial centers. Dubai, Shanghai, Moscow and other places are getting some of this business.

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With strong US growth Nvidia data center sales sales are up to $39 billion up 73% in mid 2025. After taking a $4.5 billion charge on chips designed for China after US government stopped sales to China of sensitive technologies Nvidia is doing very well. This is the result of the rapid growth in AI investments in the US being made by Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and other companies. During DJT's visit to Saudi Arabia he signed agreements that allow US exports of AI chips to Saudis in exchange for $1 trillion in investments in the US in AI infrastructure. A Biden Diffusion rule had blocked such sales to allies.

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This is a WSJ special report on Nissan and the failure of Carlos Ghosn's management style at Nissan leading to deep discontent in management ranks and employees, and also in Japan. Ghosn failed to invest in Japan seeing it as an aging society, and preferred the U.S. for investment. This was an affront to many Japanese, not just Nissan employees.  A big problem was that Ghosn's salary was larger than that of all nine top Nissan executives combined. Even during the 2008 financial crisis and cost cutting Ghosn's salary was understated by using accounting methods not approved by its auditor Ernst & Young. Under new Japanese rules oversight on compensation was given to Mr. Imazu who had to uncover the different shell companies that were used to shield the compensation and benefits going to Ghosn from public view. Lack of transparency and frugality was a major issue as one Nissan executive put it- "where is the transparency, and where is the frugality." New laws introduced in Japan in 2015 required release of compensation for any company executive making more than $800,000. Under these rules Japanese prosecutors were able to investigate the situation at Nissan.  In the end when the CEO of Nissan, appointed by Mr. Ghosn announced the arrest and detention of Mr. Ghosn, the Japanese audience applauded, showing how deep the discontent was in Japan. On November 19, in a carefully managed operation that would make a detective type story Japanese prosecutors arrested Mr. Ghosn as his plane landed in Tokyo, and arrested his assistant Mr. Kelly on the same day after his plane landed and his car was taken off the road to a rest area. Ghosn story has also its management lessons as this type of hard driving management with time spent jet-setting more than in contact with people and employees of the company is becoming unpopular. It is bad for employees and presents a rather unhealthy lifestyle, lacking any kind of role model for the rest of the company and society where the company is located. In this case not just Yokohama, but all of Japan, which resented the way it was treated. Recent articles have highlighted the situation at other companies. The General Electric story about the failure at GE in the U.S. - also explored this week in the WSJ -tells a story of hard driving management style of some executives that is increasingly becoming unpopular. A more thoughtful management style, with mindfulness, not based on personality or ego, is more productive leading to better decisions after taking in all views and enabling participation of other top and middle managers. ...

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When even the NYT, or the host of CBS television Face the Nation does it poorly, how are independent voters, and voters leaning Democrat or Republican, or leaning not vote, to have a clear idea of policies?  This review of Trump statements about Harris statements on red meat, ICE, law enforcement, fails to get down to the policies she has stated at Wake Tech in North Carolina and in other places before this. It also does not address the Trump plan to end tax on Social Security which would lead to about $550 going to seniors but lead to a cut of 25% in Social Security in 2032, defunding Social Security and Medicare. Immigration- the first thing Harris would do as president is to sign the legislation written by Republicans Lankford, McConnell with the backing of the party and agreed to by president Biden that will in effect close the Border with Mexico and fix the asylum policy, not done in three decades. Cost of Living- Harris policy on price gouging is for taking the action that companies follow and play by the rule on pricing, so that they do not take unfair advantage of the public. It is not about passing a law or fixing prices. This has been done in Texas and in Kentucky, other states. Restrict rent to 5% increases and increase the supply of new houses by building 3 million new homes, $100 billion to be allocated for fixing housing supply shortages.   ...

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Vaccine mandates are becoming a favored action as companies and governments see the dangers of rapid spread of highly transmissible delta variant. Following the action by the French government to make vaccinations mandatory for all healthcare workers, and require health pass passe sanitaire showing one is fully vaccinated at restaurants, cafes, and trains, more governments are taking up this action. This is supported by French premier Castex showing that 97% of the 18000 average daily cases in France this week, up 150% from prior week, are from unvaccinated people. Similar situation prevails in the US making it critical that governments take action early, and not miss the right time for such action.

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Walden International was founded by Lip-Bu Tan- similar to Morris Chang a graduate of MIT Engineering- in 1987. Between 2017-2021 Walden made investments in China's advanced tech companies in 40% of the venture deals from the US. At a time when some of these investments were larger than that in the US. 

National security adviser Jake Sullivan following these investments said in a speech in July 2024 that the Biden administration is “looking at the impact of outbound U.S. investment flows that could circumvent the spirit of export controls or otherwise enhance the technological capacity of our competitors in ways that harm our national security.”

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A critical part of the Affordable Care Act is the setup of marketplaces or exchanges to let people without insurance buy individual health plans. Some states setup their own exchanges, and some states let the federal government step in and run them. To help the lower middle class and poor the Act provides health subsidies to buy insurance in the exchanges, and 85% of customers in the exchanges qualify for this benefit. The U.S. Supreme Court voted 6-3 in 2015, compared to a tight vote in 2012 on the Affordable Care Act, to maintain the health subsidies. Justice Roberts wrote the majority opinion, saying "Congress passed the Affordable Care Act to improve health insurance markets, not destroy them." Justice Scalia dissented calling it "interpretive jiggery-pokery." Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito Jr. dissented. Voting in favor were Justices Anthony Kennedy, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, Justice Kennedy dissented in the 2000 case. The challengers petition to the courts was based on a reading of phrases in the Affordable Act which had not occurred to the writers of the law. The reading suggests only people enrolled in state setup exchanges are eligible for subsidies. If the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the plaintiffs the 6.4 million Americans who are enrolled in the federal exchanges would lose the subsidies provided under the law and lose health insurance. And the economic foundations of the Affordable Act would be undermined with insurance companies required to provide insurance to all regardless of pre-existing conditions and subsidies removed, leaving the companies with sicker pool of customers resulting in destabilizing the exchanges and higher premiums. The court ruled in favor of an interpretation that is compatible with the whole law and the intentions of the statute to help the middle class and the poor buy health insurance. The chaos in the insurance markets that would result in going with the plaintiffs because of a careless writing of a phrase, was uppermost in the majority's mind. Chief Justice Roberts emphasized this, saying- "The statutory scheme compels us to reject petitioners' interpretation, because it would destabilize the individual insurance market in any state with a federal exchange and likely create the very 'death spirals' that Congress designed the act to avoid." This case originated with 4 plaintiffs from Virginia who challenged the IRS regulation that said subsidies were allowed regardless of whether the exchanges were run by the state or the federal government, arguing that this was at odds with the particular phrase in the law that was ambiguous about federal exchanges eligibility for health subsidies. Judge Roger Gregory of the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond, Virgina, ruled that the phrase was indeed ambiguous, but the IRS was owed deference in its opinion. Chief Justice Roberts made it clear that this was not a case for the IRS, saying "it is instead our task to determine the correct reading." ...

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Problems of declining production at the Cantarell oil field in Mexico have been known for some time. Now President Calderon is trying to take on this issue. Brazil's Petrobras reached an impasse also some years back but was able to make the reforms, see the link to Petrobras. See the link in the WSJ for 8/30/07 on Petrobras . In 1995 President Cardozo of Brazil pushed through reforms after a oil workers strike at Petrobras. Upto that time Petrobras had problems similar to Pemex with underinvestment, state meddling in its affairs and finances, and too much bureaucracy and inefficiency. Can Calderon get reform for Pemex. Which amount of Pemex revenues should go to the government, how much should Pemex have so that it can adequately fund investment in new oil field exploration offshore, how to overcome bureaucracy and inefficient management, and how to arrange board representation so that Pemex can transform itself like Petrobras did. Some of the answers to these questions are emerging. Calderon wants to prepare his political position as the reform of Pemex is something that previous Presidents have failed to tackle. To do this the Senate's Energy Committee is holding a private debate on the issues. Calderon may try to forge a consensus with the Institutional Nacional Party, as he did with pension reforms if an all party consensus eludes him. Already in reforms of public finances that Calderon has pushed through Pemex will pay 71.5 centavos on every peso of oil extracted by 2012, instead of 79 centavos as royalty payments to the government. One reform being considered is to givePemex control of its own budget. At this time $10 billion a year goes back to the government on top of the royalty tax payments. Another reform would open up refining, transport and distribution to private enterprise. A think tank expert at CIDAC in Mexico City thinks that this can be done without reforming the constitution as was done to allow private investment in electricity generation in the 1990's. The same methods could be used to promote risk sharing contracts with other companies to bring in new technology for oil exploration, including companies from emerging countries like Petrobras, Petrochina and others, given Mexican's bias against the western oil majors. Especially because Petrobras has proven expertise in deep water drilling offshore. There is no question that Mexico is falling behind. One energy expert at the National Autonomous University estimates that the density of drilling rigs in the American portion of the Gulf of Mexico is 20 times greater than in the Mexican part, with Mexico having drilled only 20 exploratory wells in water deeper than 980 feet. in other areas like refining Pemex has not built a new refinery in 20 years, and imports 40% of its gasoline from US refineries, and its 7500 gasoline stations need expansion as Mexico's economy expands. Cardozo's transformation came with setting up an independent Board of Directors and putting an investment banker in charge. International oil companies were allowed into Brazil as a way to get Petrobras to compete with western oil companies and increase efficiency. And Cardozo got Petrobras listed on the New York Stock Exchange selling some 16% of Petrobras in the capital markets. This listing ensured transparency and improved corporate governance, as about 50 analysts now tracked Petrobras. ...

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Bradsher, Tankersley and Cohen say in this NYT report- US industrial policy under president Biden corrects the failures of the past. Chinese experts in Hong Kong say the US and Europe deindustrialized their economies with pursuing of policies called "neo-liberal" but basically Reagan era policies that Democratic presidents Clinton-Obama imitated. As they deindustrialized it created disaffection among the struggling lower and middle income classes making $35,000-$106,000 that were big losers in the process, creating threats to democracy as financial and tech, plus pharmaceutical sectors took control of the economy. China's success comes from three decades of mastering the ways of practicing industrial policy that it can support private companies with low cost land, additional subsidies that reduce the cost of production and provide a buffer to absorb losses so that it could dominate key industries. Policies where textbooks and economists trained in the US failed utterly and completely leading to dangers to US democracy that we see as opportunities for good paying jobs in manufacturing disappeared for middle and lower income households from 1980 to 2020. These economists trained in the US always said see lower cost Chinese made goods means lower and middle income people pay less, never saying that this means all opportunities for better paying jobs in manufacturing will be lost for these classes in society. The tech and financial sectors had close ties to the new arrangement that turned manufacturing over to China from the Reagan era to the Obama and Trump era. Apple and Tesla and many industries benefitted from manufacturing mostly outsourced to China. ...

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Paulson says in his new book that debt as a percentage of GDP is up in China from 130% in 2008 to 204% in 2014. He sees the borrowing surge in China as certain to cause trouble, and describes a scenario where the real estate market runs into trouble. He is particularly concerned about the trust companies in China. The Economist has decribed this in similiar terms in its recent issues. And experts including Krugman have warned about this for some time.

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An indication of how much controversy is becoming part of the drug risk appraisal process, involving the medical journals, the FDA, the Congress, the drug companies, the courts, and independent physicians, and the users of the drugs, with charges thrown back and forth. The information on Avandia comes from Merck's own website and was an attempt to provide more public disclosure of drug studies conducted by the manufacturer.

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What we bring is scale, says Teskey, co-founder of Brookfield Asset Management, which has set a target of $25 billion for 2 private funds for climate action. $10 billion has been raised and it continues fundraising. $2 billion from the UAE for energy transition fund and $1 billion for emerging markets transition. Additional fund raising will take place for emerging markets fund. Across all its funds Brookfield says it has raised $100 billion for investment in renewable power and energy transition projects. The demand for renewable power comes from cities and companies looking for cleaner ways of powering everything from data centers to manufacturing. It also comes from regulations on climate and from generous incentives offered by governments. The demand for renewable power from corporates, says Connor Teskey of Brookfield, is simply overwhelming. Teskey and Mark Carney, the former head of the central banks of UK and Canada and the point man on climate for the UN, are co-founders.   Total global energy transition investment was $1.8 trillion in 2023, a 17% increase from 2022, and yet this is nowhere near the needed investment of $4.8 trillion for climate goals needed annually for 2024 to 2030. Lyrarc.com will track these investments in its Climate Change Action part of the site. Brookfield is looking at cutting emissions in what is a broader strategy. whih means it will invest in fossil fuel projects where it can significantly cut emissions. This includes cement and steel makers.    ...

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"This year something has happened in Labour. The hope of a Labour victory has turned into a belief." Keir Starmer UK's Labour party leader says being dull does not bother him. One of the big differences with the UK Conservatives is now on display says Starmer on windfall profits of fossil fuel companies to be taxed in the call by Labour. "One of those big differences is between a Labour party that wants the fossil fuel giants to contribute more of their windfall profits to pay for the energy price freeze, and a Conservative government that would not countenance this." See Starmer's big plans for renewable energy announced today, on this page.

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Dow Chemical CEO, Anthony Liveris, is co-chair of the Advanced Manufacturing Partnership, an effort to bring together federal government, industry, universities and other groups to invest in new technologies that would generate good-quality jobs and increase U.S. competitiveness. He writes this letter in the Wall Street Journal to correct two misperceptions. The first, is that government has no significant role in nurturing an environment that is good for business and manufacturing industry. Because other countries, including China, are now operating like companies, it is important not to let the U.S. be in a disadvantageous position. Government has always been involved in its writing of tax and incentive policies, regulations, trade agreements, and creating a climate of certainty. The second, is that the loss of manufacturing capacity and job losses in the last 10 years are different from the job losses in the 1980's. These are not the low tech and less efficient manufacturing job losses of the 1980's, but job losses as a result of moving advanced manufacturing capacity and research and development centers to outside of the U.S. Of the 8 million jobs lost in the last recession, he says two million manufacturing jobs of higher pay and supporting employment in other sectors were lost. His point: its time to focus on expanding manufacturing in the U.S. because manufacturing is the sector with the highest multiplier effect on other sectors. Public-private partnerships are critical to this effort for increasing technology development and increasing investment. This view is supported by other experts....

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Brazil's oil company, Petrobras, has 55.7% of voting shares controlled by the government. Petrobras's nonvoting shares make up most of the widely held stock, which has increased significantly in recent years. Petrobras is Latin America's largest publicly traded company with market value of $96.9 billion. Oil production by Petrobras is 1.9 million barrels a day, larger than Brazil's expected consumption of 1.85 million barrels a day for 2006. The policies of former President Henrique Cardoso are credited with making Petrobras competitive. Cardoso passed a constitutional amendment that allowed foreign companies to compete against Petrobras. And he put new managers from banking in charge of the company, leading to significant changes in how the company was run. With new deepwater drilling oil production increased by 12% a year during the Cardoso years 1997-2002. Under the Lula administration Petrobras has also reflected the government's social goals by delaying passing on price increases in gasoline and cooking gas and limiting the price increases. Under President Lula the CEO and senior managerial appointments for Petrobras have come from the ranks of his political party, the PT. Jos Eduardo Dutra, and Jos Gabrielli are members of PT. Under the Lula government Petrobras faced little competition from foreign oil companies and Petrobras dominates the Brazilian oil sector....

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In the past market forces pushed the US out of the chip business to highly subsidized chip companies TMC and SMIC in Taiwan and China. US cannot have it both ways. It cannot compete with China in chips and allow temporary market forces do the job of decimating its chip industry.    Market forces are rags to riches and mostly short term ignoring long term. Nvidia now valued at $1 trillion under market forces would not exist today. WSJ showed recently that only with the help of a loan from a Japanese Sega videogame executive Iramijiri to Nvidia founder Jensen Huang was Nvidia able to survive market forces in 1998. Qualcomm a maker of phone chips has made a takeover offer of Intel in 2024. Intel shares dropped 60% this year and is valued on share basis at $90 billion- yet was recently at $290 billion closer to its true value as America's chip pioneer and leader. Qualcomm is at $185 billion. Yet share values can be rags to riches as Nvidia story of going up to $1 trillion in 2021 and $3 trillion in 2024 shows. Such a deal draws anti trust concerns with too much control under one company. A deal for takeover of British owned ARM by Nvidia was stopped by regulatory authorites in UK and the EU in 2022. The US government is giving $8.5 billion to Intel to build up its chip making technology in competition with China. The Gelsinger plan is for manufacturing to be boosted up, so is the effort of the Biden administration. It may take time yet it is the right approach for the US. Pat Gelsinger is leading this effort at Intel. In the past market forces pushed the US out of the chip business to highly subsidized chip companies TMC and SMIC in Taiwan and China.    ...

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The Ford Motor Company's effort to get president Trump to work on a compromise with California on fuel economy standards has failed. Leaving the industry split with Ford on one side and GM, Toyota on the other siding with president Trump on lower fuel economy standards than set by California and lower than the standards set by Mr. Obama. When Ford made a deal with California it got an antitrust inquiry, and led to the Trump administration speeding up its effort to strip California of its authority to set its own fuel economy standards. This WSJ report says the legal fight between Mr. Trump and California is likely to be long and drawn out with Ford and the auto companies caught in the middle. It also shows how the disagreement with the Trump White House can lead to unforeseen consequences and more uncertainty. Ford had originally expected that a deal with California which relaxed standards set by Mr. Obama but not similar to Mr. Trump's would show California would compromise. This is not how it has worked out. ...

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The rulings in Britain for "duty of care" protect a customer or worker from harm. The rule "to love your neighbor becomes in law "you must not injure your neighbor." This is the new idea that the British government is moving forward so that the internet as public space is protected for all who use it. It does not state how many fire extinguishers are to be installed in a public building. Britain's Health and Safety Act simply requires the owners to do all that is needed to protect the users and occupants from harm. Since 1945 this is the foundation for heath and safety laws in the U.S. and in the UK.  This is the principle that 2 researchers Mr. Perrin and Ms. Woods have come up to tackle the protection of the internet as public a space. Perrin is a civil servant and founder of Ofcom, the UK's version of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission regulator. Woods is a professor of internet law at Essex University. It is now part of the legislation proposed by Boris Johnson's government in The Queen's Speech outlining government priorities. A new regulator would have the power to require companies to protect users of public spaces (the internet) from online harms such as pornography, extreme content, cyber bullying. The 2017 suicide death of Molly Russell a British teenager made this a priority for the government. The French government is also proposing rules based on this principle. ...

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This WSJ report looks at the efforts of sugarly cola companies such as Pepsico under a new CEO to push their cola products aggressively with advertising, and modern logistics. It cites Barry Popkin, nutrition professor at the University of North Carolin School of Public Health that they are making products that are killing us more slowly. With less sugar than before but still at a time of dangerously high obesity levels in the world just as dangerous or more dangerous to humans, because they are not as healthy as previous generations. The pandemic proved the danger of higher obesity levels. The numbers say it all-1% of children 5-19 years obese in 1975 going up by 8% to 9% in 2020, and doubling to 19% in 2035, says the WSJ. That is doubling by 2035 to 19%-  simply astounding. Popkin says the fact that Americans are living more years with disabilities, and fewer disability free years, is very much linked to the food intake. On The Guardian's pages was an article about a surgeon who has a startup in Austin, Dr. Attia of Early Medical, that promotes "healthspan." It focuses on getting healthy living habits  through better nutrition, exercize, to start at an early age as being critical for a healthy life span. It is not the same starting at an early age with good food and exercize habits vs starting later in life as this means fewer disability free years when starting later in life.  ...

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Epic Systems of Verona, Wisconsin, is one of the companies engaged in digitizing health records. It has helped develop records for 40 million patients in hospital systems such as Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, Kaiser Permanente, the Cleveland Clinic, and John Hopkins Medicine in Baltimore and the Weill Cornell Physicians Organization of New York. Epic provides the software, the IT systems, the training and support. Epic is one of the pioneers in this, having been in the business for 30 years. About 40% of primary care doctors in the U.S. and 25% of hospitals use electronic patient records. The Federal government has provided $2.7 billion in funding from $27 billion of Stimulus funds assigned for the purpose of conversion to electronic medical records. This is likely to speed up the conversion. Other providers are Cerner, Allscripts, Meditech, Siemens Healthcare, G.E. Healthcare, and IBM. Epic Systems is considered the defacto standard in the industry for medical schools and some of the major hospital systems in the country. New contracts are leading to a major expansion of Epic Systems which employs 5100 people. Epic plans to hire an additional 1000 people. Revenue for the privately owned company are estimated at $1.2 billion, a 45% increase over the prior year. Epic is expected to have 127 million patients under medical records by mid 2013. To get the feedback essential for such a large conversion, CEO Faulkner relies on feedback from 250,000 doctors who use the Epic systems software, and on nurses and doctors from Epic who visit customer's sites to see first hand how it works and what needs improvement. Judith Faulkner started Epic more than 30 years ago. A project for the Psychiatry department led to other projects after she graduated in computer science from the University of Wisconsin. Epic continues to attract programmers to Wisconsin by making the Epic campus a fun environment and a great place to work. ...