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Adam Taylor explains what Brexit is about. What should be added is that Brexit is a child of the time in 2015-2016 when Angela Merkel was ill prepared to tackle the sudden wave of migrants from North Africa from wars and population growth outstripping what little progress was made, making decisions to let in close to a million migrants. Migrants are now being returned back to their home countries and the issue has faded. The austerity policies in the EU with Greece, Spain and Portugal as bad poster childs for the EU are also largely over, with economic recovery in Europe.  As a result confidence is growing in the future of the European Union. What pessimists including Mr. Trump saw as a breakup of the European Union is no longer the case. Britain's long negotiations and divisions for Brexit are now reinforcing an opposite conclusion- that it is beneficial to stay in the European Union. Fully 68% in a Eurobarometer Survey of 27 EU countries by the European Commission in March 2019 think so, only 17% think it is not beneficial. In Britain also a majority now support membership in the EU. The European Union and Britain have a lot to learn from this experience and the divisions generated, which is likely to be part of the acquired experience of a new generation of leaders.  ...

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German economy contracts in second quarter 2024 by 0.1%. Growth is forecast at 0.3% for 2024 and 1.1% for 2025, according to country statistics office Destatis. The contrast could not be greater in Biden's management of the economy as US economic growth was much higher at about 2.8% in 2024. It shows the positive effects of Biden's effort to revive American manufacturing, and to support chips and science and American industry, and the investment of a trillion dollars from the Inflation Reduction Act in American infrastructure. Without these investments American recovery strong at this time would have hobbled along with much worse effects on jobs and inflation, and looming recession, under a Trump administration. Unusual factors such as the concentration of the supply chain in China have influenced US inflation, which Biden is correcting, and also bringing jobs at home. The economic management is excellent it  is the effects of the pandemic and broken supply chains, high mortgage rates and 20% price increases in apartment rentals that are making cost of living a problem for average Americans. Biden has taken cost of living action including canceling student debt and calling for limiting rent increases for apartment rentals to 5%. Harris has a program to support renters when housing takes up more than 30% of their income. ...

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The expected EU turnout in 2024 is at a high of 68 percent. Over the years since its formation the early enthusiasm and vision was replaced by dry directives issued by bureaucrats in Brussels leading to lethargy. 1979's 62 percent voter turnout contrasts with 2014's 48% voter turnout. Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have each in their way created new surge of interest in EU and the parliament in Strasbourg, says Caroline Gruyter from her conversations in France, Switzerland, Netherlands, Czech Republic. Today 74% of EU citizens polled say they support the European Union. Similar numbers even in the UK as Labor party is about to come back in a big way.  What happened? The war in Ukraine, Russia and NATO, US and NATO, the UK drift back to EU in sentiment, Italy's conservative parties called Right wing are supporting the EU under Meloni. Another reason for the sense of EU coming back to life comes from my visit to Germany, where after decades of disinvestment in infrastructure the rail station in Frankfurt is being rebuilt and new infrastructure is being built all over the city. Posters all over Frankfurt for EU parliament elections show a new spirit for Respect for workers, working families, and a sense that the FDP, SPD, CDU and Greens can take the decisions to give new vigor to the German democratic process.    ...

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The total government expenditure of the US including the individual states spending is 37% of US GDP (IMF). Musk $2 trillion cuts is 92% of the 2.17 trillion excluding defense, veterans benefits, interest on debt, Social Security, Medicare. The simple math means he plans to shut down the government. US  37.5%  Germany 48% France 57% UK and Canada 43% Japan 42% This shows that the US that has no universal health insurance and  subsidized public transportation, spends less than the developed OECD countries as a percentage of its GDP. Of the Budget of $6.75 trillion in 2024 Social Security $1.46 trillion   22% Medicare            $874 billion   13% Interest on Debt  $880 billion    13% Trump plans to remove tax on Social Security which would take this from 48% to over 50% meaning half of the Budget is off limits. If defense spending goes up not down then $874 and $325 for Veterans benefits are $1.2 trillion also off limits.  This means cuts of $2 trillion on $2.17 trillion or 92%. Do the simple math and this would shut down the government. ...

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Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer interview by NYT's Lulu Navarro looks at the swing state of Michigan and its popular governor. Asked about president president Biden's 3 trillion dollar investments in Manufacturing, in Chips and Science, in Infrastructure, Whitmer says the public is still just coming out of the pandemic and has seen only some of the beneficial effects of this program of massive investment in the US economy. She says it is similar to what she heard from Michiganders which amounted to "Governor Fix the Dam Roads." She says the former president Trump lacks any such vision for the US economy, and for the future. Of the present time Whitmer says that the pandemic has taken a toll in people's lives, people are stressed out, and just hanging in there trying to pay the grocery bills, get the kids to school, and show up at work. They have hardly the time to figure out what the CHIPS Act means. Whitmer is in her second term as governor and comes from the western part of the state around Grand Rapids which is traditionally Republican. In her election for governor she was able to win with good margins in this western part of the State even as a Democrat. This interview show Whitmer wanting to be able to work with Republicans in the best interests of the state and the Nation. ...

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The European Union goes forward with $39 billion for Ukraine aid. The aid is backed by interest from the $300 billion in Russian assets in Europe frozen when war began. Another $15-20 billon is expected from the US when legal questions about frozen Russian assets are resolved- the US asking for a 36 month review of sanctions to replace 6 months in place in 2024. The European Union offices in Brussels have done a poor job of communicating how the EU is  aiding Ukraine with its own resources. Lyrarc.com had to point out that Ukraine aid from EU was about twice that of the US at about $200 billion compared to about $95 billion for the US. Former president Trump stated that this was just the opposite the US spending twice what the US was spending. Media in today's world means little or nothing because it operates highly fragmented and organically outside the control of any particular source online, television or print. And established sources apart from bias are spread so thin many important matters for the betterment of people's lives or giving a true picture from which to make observations, are left to wither or distort. The highly formal  corporate environments of the EU are impervious to the outside so that institutions such as the ECB, European Union headquarters are out of touch with the people worldwide.  ...

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Joe Biden will hit the campaign trial in key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin starting Labor Day. This is the Joe Biden who stood on a picket line in Detroit. Across these states white working class voters see Biden as having their interests at heart. The United Auto Workers endorsed Biden and Harris. And Kamala Harris says this of Biden in interview with CNN Dana Bash- "History is going to show, not only has Joe Biden led an administration that has achieved those extraordinary successes, but the character of the man is one that he has been in his life and career, including as a president, quite selfless and puts the American people first.” The extraordinary successes are the bipartisan legislation only Biden with 50 years in Congress could have achieved in this century- trillions of dollars going to fight the pandemic, fight inflation, fight the battle for bringing manufacturing home to America. And instead of Trump doing nothing for infrastructure after talking for years about it Biden has launched the biggest infrastructure effort in the US in 50 years. Never in recent history has so much been done in so short a time, with so much to follow, and never has it been so little reported or discussed. Yet history will show what Biden has set out to do and given the opportunity for his vice president to do in her turn.  ...

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Zapotosky of the Washington Post explains what the Supreme Court's partial approval of the Trump travel ban means for visitors to the U.S. He points out that the Supreme Court's version is limited because it only applies it to persons without any bonafide relationship with a person or entity in the U.S.. In addition the Court urged the administration to complete its vetting procedures review. The travel ban was for 6  countries Iran, Sudan, Somalia, Libya, Yemen and Syria. There are conflicts and wars in most of the countries on the list. Also important to bear in mind is that the administration presented its case as one in which this was a temporary measure till vetting procedures are addressed to reduce the "investigative burden."

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Boeing plans to have a new facility in China complete assembly of its 737 jets by the end of 2018. The finishing center is being built near Shanghai. Boeing's order book is up to 5800 jets at a value of $518 billion. About one fifth are in deliveries planned for China. Inflight entertainment systems, seat systems and other finishing for aircraft will be done at the new facility. Boeing continues to see this a a part of doing business in China even as tensions have increased with China over tariff issues and market access. Boeing says it will continue to assemble 737s at its plant near Seattle, and send some planes for completion to China. Sales to Iran will require following Trump administration guidelines.

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China's central banks cuts the reserve requirement ratio, the amount of money banks need to keep at the central bank, by half a percentage point. Banks are required to use the money that is freed up of $100 billion to help heavily indebted companies and small business lacking collateral to get new loans.

This is a response to the Trump tariffs on $100 billion of Chinese goods with a equal response from China and the trade war between China and the U.S., so that the Chinese economy can be bolstered before the impact of the tariffs hurts the economy. In the past China was reluctant to reduce the reserve requirement. Chinese debt soared with local government debt and debt accumulated from the 2008 large stimulus in the financial crisis.

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This NYT article looks at another side of Biden in the meeting with Putin, Biden's optimism. Biden says of his style- "the important thing is to put an optimistic front, an optimistic face." By doing this he achieved more with Putin than was thought possible after years of deteriorating relations. In a way it could be said that Biden brought the optimism that Russia, Germany, France, India, and other nations, the rest of the world also need, especially now during the pandemic. He prepared carefully for his meeting, more than most presidents, much more than Reagan, Trump or Obama. He met with German and French  leaders, prepared with Blinken and Sullivan, coordinated with G-7 allies at Cornwall in the UK, in a way that was rarely done before.  After the meeting Biden could tell reporters "The country has put a different face on where we've been and where we're going- and I feel good about it." It is also a measure of Biden's leadership style that he took a constructive approach in the face of difficult issues.  Biden based it on a sound footing. The way Biden says "is to know what your adversary's interests are." In Russia's case Biden and his team see this as "legitimacy, standing in the world stage." And for Russia "desperately wanting to be relevant." For the most part Putin and Russia responded positively to this effort by Biden to change the tone, texture of voice, and manner in the conversation. ...

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Efforts by president Macron to setup a meeting between Rouhani of Iran and president Trump in New York to reduce tensions of miscalculation and disproportionate response after the attacks on Saudi oil facilities by drones and missiles. Macron says the "maximum pressure" sanctions placed by the U.S. are resulting in Iran placing "maximum pressure" on its neighbors. The Yemen civil war is fought by proxy.  One outcome appears to be the Houthi rebels backed by Iran in Yemen announcing a unilateral ceasefire. And the Saudis announcing a ceasefire of their own. This gives the European Union, the U.S., Saudis, Iran, China and Japan, time to consider the implications of the counterproductive approaches of the different sides to give enough room for new talks. Iran nuclear deal, U.S. relations with Iran, and any new talks on these issues are now seen in a different way. The nuclear deal is now linked with other issues in the region, including building peace in the region. Countries that depend on oil flowing through the Straits of Hormuz such as Japan, China, South Korea, and India are now also involved as silent partners pushing for peace in the region.  ...

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This article in the NYT provides a look at the features of the Republican House Health Care Plan- Both the Affordable Health Care Act and the House Plan provide incentives for buying insurance- the ACA bases these incentives on income levels whereas the House Plan does not provide additional help for low incomes or elderly. Incomes at $20,000 would see a loss greater than  $2000 under the House Plan and as many of the elderly poor living in high cost areas may not have the resources to make up for this loss of subisidies they may forgo buying insurance or have insurance coverage that protects only in a limited way. President Trump has given assurances that all will be covered. For people with incomes of $50,000 or $75000 the loss of $2000 subisidies would also have some impact. At larger incomes or the well to do the subsidies are not handed out under either plan. Under the ACA the emphasis was on income levels and high cost insurance areas the subsidies were greater, under the House Plan the subisidies would be higher for the elderly compared to the young but very low income levels are not given additional help.     ...

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There is a two week period before the 25% tariff on steel coming into the U.S. goes into effect. This gives time for Canada, Mexico, the EU, Japan and other countries to come up with offers to negotiate or as with the EU come up with its own plan to put tariffs on some American goods. An exemption for Canada is supported by the United Steel Workers Union, as many American companies make steel across the borders. Canada sends the most steel and aluminium to the U.S. With the departure of Gary Cohn as economic advisor, Mr. Lighthizer, the U.S. Trade Representative who pushed for the tariff plan becomes a trusted advisor to the President. Lighthizer is to be seen in Lyrarc pages as having consistently supported fair trade and protecting U.S. workers in these situations since his work in the Reagan administration. The other advisors who are ascendent are Peter Navarro, a trade expert, and Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary. Ross is an experienced business veteran in consolidation of steel and auto parts companies, who pushed for a moderate position to renegotiate NAFTA and convinced president Trump to pursue renegotiation instead of rejecting NAFTA following calls from president Nieto of Mexico and Trudeau of Canada. ...

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Robert Mueller, the special counsel, says the Mueller Report and his investigation into the 2016 presidential election does not exonerate president Trump. If we had exonerated the president we would have said so, said Mueller in a public statement. "If we had confidence the president did not commit a crime we would have said that," Mueller said. He said the constitution of the U.S. does not allow a sitting president to be charged by the special counsel. Because the special counsel office is under the Justice Department and the department policy set the manner of the report, charging the president was not an option he had. The Republican party controls the Senate and the Democrats control the House of Representatives. Any effort by Democrats in the House to impeach the president would fail in the Senate. Democrats and Speaker Pelosi are wary of impeachment proceedings. Mr. Mueller's statement suggests there is also growing discomfort in Congress about taking no action at all that would be construed as exonerating the president for what happened during the presidential election, because it might set improper precedent for the future. This increases the pressure for impeachment proceedings in the House of Representatives from some Democrats for more information to let Congress decide. ...

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Chancellor Merkel has shown exceptional leadership during the coronavirus health crisis in Germany, leading to increasing popularity for her government. Her approval ratings are the highest of any coalition government in the last 23 years. The government says this report in DW.com has appeared level headed in its actions, and Merkel has paid careful attention to advice from Germany's Robert Koch Institute, the German public health agency. Merkel also shared important facts for tackling coronavirus in an effective television address. By listening to the expertise of RKI public health agency the government has maintained calm and better handled the crisis. In the U.S. a similar process is taking place with the heads of the public health agencies, Dr. Fauci and Dr Birx playing a similar role, and president Trump paying careful attention to health experts. DW.com says doctors, nurses, police officers, and people working at supermarkets and pharmacies, are being applauded by the public, with people taking to the balconies to applaud. This is also happening in Spain. The hope expressed by DW.com is that going forward these professions will be better paid and public health become a top priority. ...

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Most of it is because of Donald Jr. and his affinity for Vance, a bonding that developed once the former president left office. Donald Jr. championed Vance choice over Burghum and Rubio. For the former president the choice was natural because his style fitted that of Vance of saying directly with candor what he thought. Vance's criticism that a second Trump administration focused on tax cuts and not investing in the American economy would not lead to economic growth still rings true as shown in the adjoining article on the US dollar, on inflation moving up with tariffs and job growth affected by lack of the government investing in the economy and American manufacturing. Even in the Depression years Republicans stuck to their idea that governments should stay out, are they likely to change that today? Vance's criticism was made before he became senator, in 2016. It would lead to another lost decade for the American economy and people, and put America just where the Tories have left Britain today so that Keir Starmer's Labour cannot bring immediate relief to the British people struggling with cost of living in 2025, with the mess the Tories have left behind.  ...

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For the first time the U.S. focuses on the huge trade deficit with China in a serious way. The trade negotiating team led by Robert Lighthizer has set forth its negotiating terms.  1. China must reduce its trade deficit with the U.S. by $100 billion in the first 12 months. In the next 12 months it must reduce its deficit by another $100 billion. In 2 years the trade deficit the U.S. has with China must come down by $200 billion. The issue is no longer just the tariffs on steel, it is about the core issue of balance in  trade. 2. The U.S. says subsidies to state industries in the "Made in China 2025" program must stop. Here the focus is on gaining an unfair technological advantage with a combination of U.S. technology imports and subsidies to state advanced manufacturing industries to erode over time the U.S. technological lead.  3.  China is expected to cut its tariffs by about two thirds on imported products so that the tariffs match that of the U.S. This is the first serious negotiation the U.S. has conducted with China on the core issue of the trade surplus which is growing with a stronger dollar not declining. The surplus approaches $1 billion each day for about $365 billion a year, unsustainable from any perspective. The vital issue of the erosion of the U.S. technological advantage under the Made in China 2025 has turned this issue into one in which the U.S. is unlikely to back down. Especially now that Mr. Lighthizer is leading the  negotiations and has the confidence of the president of the U.S. Lighthizer is a veteran of negotiations from an earlier period -under the Reagan administration in a similar situation with another national competitor- then it was the Japanese. A relentless negotiator as the U.S. seeks to reverse a trade imbalance of stupendous proportions neglected by previous administrations.           ...

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Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson has modeled his positions on that of the Trump image. He is the Republican candidate for Governor of North Carolina and Republican Senator Tillis of North Carolina sees him as taking extreme positions that are counterproductive. Josh Stein the Attorney General is the Democrat opposing him. North Carolina had a popular two term Democratic Governor Roy Cooper and this state is closely watched. Cooper concentrated on roads, bridges, infrastructure, public services. Other governors in Michigan and Kentucky have the same focus. Culture wars are a wasteful and unnecessary distraction from the real work in rebuilding manufacturing, and rebuilding infrastructure facing America that are in the Biden plan.

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French 2025 Bayrou budget compromise deficit of 5.4% target is a fragile one. Le Monde says PM Bayrou is dependent on the goodwill of his opponents the RN National Rally and the Partie Socialiste PS. Cutting the budget slightly is not popular with RN or PS and it remains a compromise to avoid the worst of not passing the budget for 2025, a responsibility the public places on all politicians and parties. As in Germany France with fragile coalitions and lack of clear voter support for one program, is not able to invest in its economy as Biden and Trump have done in the US, slowing growth in the European Union.

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As drops in price of steel could lead to imports into the US with paying lower tariff Trump increases tariffs on steel to 50% on May 30, 2025. Nippon Steel says it will increase its investments in US steel mills at US Steel including older mills, $7.7 billion in modernization of plants, and $2.2 billion at Mon Valley plant. Ownership of US Steel based in Pittsburgh with 14,000 workers will stay in American hands. DJT intervened to make these investments possible. Investments will keep furnaces open 10 years and give every worker a $5000 bonus. It is this type of action that has helped DJT win in Pennsylvania and win worker support.