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Cillizza points to two demographics that the Republicans missed in the 2008 and 2012 U.S. presidential elections. The Hispanic vote comprises 10% of the electorate. Obama won this demographic with 69% compared to 29% for Romney. Romney's extreme positions, to the right of Governor Rick Perry of Texas got him through the Republican primaries but left him exposed in the national elections as he defended his statements of support for "self-deportation." In this respect Reagan, Bush, Perry adopted moderate positions and favored helping children of immigrants get a good education so they could be integrated into American society. Perry even took a hit for his moderate position supporting immigrants in the primaries even before his memory slip in a debate. Romney failed to support even the Dream Act for a pathway to be given to children of immigrants supported by Mark Rubio, a Cuban-American Republican senator of Florida. The second key demographic is the young people vote ages 18-29. This was 18% of the electorate in 2008, and about 19% in 2012. Obama took this demographic with a lead of 34 points in 2008 and a lead of 24 points in 2012. So that even with diminishing support such large numbers meant there was a large cushion to win the election by combining several demographics even if the Democratic position eroded somewhat because of the economy and unemployment at near 8%. This is what happened because of the 6 out of 10 voters, or 60% of the electorate who voted, Romney won 51% to Obama's 47%. This enabled Obama to get the small victory margin he needed in the popular vote. In many ways Romney was "an unnatural candidate" as the Wall Street Journal described him in its editorial, being a private equity business executive fighting a election with Democrats fighting to protect middle and working class interests....

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Greek tax evasion is estimated by three economists who studied data from Greek banks at about $11 billion based on a 40% tax rate, a third of the country's annual deficit for 2009. Unreported income is estimated at $28 billion. Doctors, dentists, lawyers, architects, engineers are the biggest groups underreporting income. Greece's parliament took up a bill in 2010 but the bill failed because of oposition from these groups. It remains to be seen if the Samaras government with support of the IMF-EC can take action similiar to that taken by the Monti government in Italy to go after tax evaders. By cutting the minimum wage and incomes of lower income groups disproportionately compared to cracking down on tax evasion and protecting incomes of higher income groups the economic plan for Greece proposed by the IMF-EC and the Greek government becomes unworkable and threatens the social fabric. By not raising this issue Germany's media and government have appeared callous in their pursuit of austerity measures as working class Greeks protested in Athens in 2011-2012, even though some of the issues raised by the Germans are legitimate. France and Italy are imposing a wealth tax to cut the deficit but this is not taking place in Greece. Global financial media has also not reported adequately on these aspects of the problem in Greece and Italy....

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The top three books in Vanguard's recommended reading list for serious investors say its not more profitable to get into complex investments and strategies- simple investment approaches of putting money in Vanguard core funds or mutual funds of Vanguard and Fidelity are more likely to produce good performance. 2013 was another year in which this proved to be true, and to a remarkable degree. Hedge funds and complex strategies did worse than investing in broad index funds that produced about 29% in returns similiar to the rise in the broad market averages. Malkiel and Ellis suggest the simple approach in Elements of Investing. Swensen in Conventional Investing, and Bernstein in Four Pillars of Investing provide evidence of the wisdom of such an approach for serious investors. All four authors are financial experts who have followed the stock markets for six decades since 1950.

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Jack Ewng's interview with Norbert Reithofer, CEO of BMW, in Nov. 2012. Reithofer tells Ewing about the time in 1997- 2000 when he was in charge of the BMW Spartanburg plant in the U.S. Reithofer made a list of problems and presented this to managers. Managers at the plant told Reithofer that in the U.S. the company did not have problems, it had challenges and every challenge was an opportunity. This made a deep impression on him and he sees the current problems in the European auto market in that light. BMW has an agreement with unions to cut production quickly as it did in 2008, if there is a sharp decline in the market. It will continue to invest in R&D, bring out a light weight battery powered car in 2013, and build a new factory in Brazil.

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GE will spin off GE Capital into a separate business and put up about 20% of the assets for an IPO in 2014. GE will also get out of the retail lending business. The unit may also be put up for sale at a later date. This move is designed to meet shareholder interest in separating the industrial assets with steady earnings from the volatile financial business. GE Capital is the fifth largest bank in terms of its size and still generates a large part of profits for GE. Profits in 2012 for GE Capital were $7.4 billion. Other moves would reduce exposure to consumer lending and increase lending to midsized businesses. These are remaining moves following the 2008 financial crisis, in which GE Capital hurt GE's overall performance badly, for GE to return to its industrial business roots.

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Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke says he plans to keep interest rates low till the end of 2014. Bernanke told a news conference after a two day policy meeting of the Fed April 23-24: "It's a little premature to declare victory. Keeping interest rates low is still appropriate for our economy."

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The U.S. Federal Reserve policy in March 2015 changes to take out the phrase about being "patient" on future interest rate increases. At the same time Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen points to the 2% target rate for inflation and the stronger dollar making it harder to reach that target. The Fed will take a data driven approach looking at all the relevant information before making its decision, says Yellen.

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Automobile parts imports into the U.S. have increased from $89 billion in 2008 to $138 billion in 2014, up from only $31.7 billion in 1990. In a huge shift in wages with increasing global competition wages at an American Axle plant in Michigan at $10 an hour are about what Target stores and Wal-mart pay for retail workers. An new generation of workers in manufacturing are seeing a shift from being in the middle class during their parents generation to lower class, with this downward pressure on wages as parts are manufactured in places such as Mexico and China.

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Macy's story is told by figures showing an increasing share in a shrinking department store business. Macy's increased its share of department store sales to 44% in 2013, from 33% in 2006 by acquiring other department stores. As a result the improvement in recent years disguises some serious weakness in the company's strategies. It took Macy many years before launching an off price chain to carry discounted merchandise- only now getting off the ground under the Backstage chain. The change in consumer buying habits after the 2008 recession continues today, buyers are frugal and waiting for markdowns which take longer at Macy's and come quickly at TJ Maxx. As a result Macy's sales are declining in 2015. This benefits discount retailers carrying name brands at lower prices such as TJ Maxx, which has about the same sales as Macy's and over 3 times the market value. Macy's share price has fallen about 40% so far in 2015. As other stores such as J.C. Penneys have shifted and adopted strategies offering more value and everyday competitive pricing Macy's faces the risk of being too slow to change....

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The sudden change in the prospects for Venezuelan bonds with the sharp drop in oil prices by Dec. 2014. Price of credit default swaps on Venezuela debt show a 61% chance of default in 2015, and a 90% chance of default in the next 5 years. In previous years Venezuela debt was considered safe by emerging market investors because of oil revenues. Venezuela and its state owned oil company, PDVSA, issued a significant amount of debt from 2007 to 2011. Analysts say the debt outstanding for PDVSA and Venezuela is $66 billion. In the short period of a year sharp declines in commodity prices have created a crisis for Venezuela's finances. Fitch Ratings has lowered the credit rating on the bonds to CCC from B. Venezuela's benchmark bonds traded at 46 cents to the dollar on Dec. 19, 2014, after dropping as low as 38 cents. Yields on short dated bonds are above 40%. Problems in Venezuela can create contagion effects for other emerging markets- Russia, Argentina, Turkey, Brazil, India, Indonesia, China- especially with Fed signals about raising rates which lead to capital outflows. ...

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Spencer Jakab provides this balanced perspective on Buffett's performance as an investor. Breaking the past 25 years into five periods gives a sense of how Buffett has fared in recent years compared to his performance in the early years. In the latest period since 2010 Berkshire stock has outperformed the market by a mere 0.9% annually. In the period 1995-1999 Berkshire performance trailed the S&P 500 significantly, making up for this in the next 5 years. As Berkshire became larger it was harder to generate results of the period around 1975. In that year returns were 129.3%. In 2015 Berkshire had to take big stakes in large companies such as Kraft. Gains for 2009 were 2.7%, 2010 21.4%, and 2011 minus 4.7%. Showing that Buffett's principles and approach remained intact- invest in what you know and be careful to respect what you don't know, invest in companies and their prospects for the long run (an option not easily available to mutual fund managers who are judged yearly), invest in companies generating large cash flows. Yet as Jakab points out performance has gradually declined over the years....

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BP's global oil outlook 2013-2030 shows demand from China is still a big part of the story two decades from now. Factor in demand from Russia, the Middle East and India, yet China still dominates the picture for growth in demand. For 2000-2011 China's share of global demand growth for energy was 55%, under BP's outlook China's share for 2011-2030 drops to 43%. Fossil fuels still dominate. The continuing dependence on fossil fuels is also the perspective of Shell CEO Voser in an interview with the WSJ in Jan 2013, who also sees strong growth in shale gas supplies from China. Coal will account for 61% of global demand growth to 2030, oil 43%, gas 25%, in BP's outlook. If Voser is right and with the need for cleaner burning natural gas gas considering high air pollution in Chinese cities, gas may take a bigger share than 25%. Shell CEO Voser looks out 4 decades from now and sees one third of global demand coming from renewable energy, 10% from nuclear, and the rest from fossil fuels.

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AP Moller-Maersk, the Danish energy and shipping company, says profits will decline in 2012 from 2011 profit of 18.08 billion kroner ($3.1 billion). Maersk expects global demand for seaborne containers to go up by 4-6% in 2012, but sees lower traffic in the Europe-Asia trade lanes. Maersk has 16% of the container shipping market worldwide. The Maersk Line had losses of 3.4 billion kroner in the 1st quarter of 2012.

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The cancellation of the G-8 summit in Sochi, Russia, and the planned G-7 meeting in June 2014 in Brussels.

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The International Organization for Migration says the number of refugees crossing the Mediterranean to Greece and other places will reach 1 million in 2015. The UN high commissioner for refugees says 5 million displaced people were added in the first 6 months of 2015 to the 59.5 million people recorded as displaced in Dec. 2014.

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Groupon, the online coupon service, showed a net loss of $2.98 million for the third quarter of 2012. Revenue growth from gross billings increased by only 5% in the third quarter with slow growth in Europe. Shares of Groupon closed on Nov. 8, 2012 at $3.92, down from the $20 IPO price of Nov. 2011.

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The real estate bubble in Canada in March 2012. Rental rates for office space increased by 17% in 2011, according to Cushman. Toronto office space vacancy is below 5% for 2011. Scotia Plaza of Bank of Nova Scotia draws many bidders as banks in Canada use the high demand to sell their office buildings.

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The suicide note left by CFO Wauthier of Zurich Insurance in August 2013. This followed heated and tense exchanges with chairman Josef Ackermann of Zurich Insurance, who joined the company in 2012. Wauthier says Ackermann created a very stressful working environment and treated managers disrespectfully, putting pressure on the finance department. Ackermann joined Zurich Insurance after a career as investment banker and CEO of Deutsche Bank AG. Zurich Insurance's board said an internal investigation will be conducted on cultural issues about whether excessive pressure was placed on the finance department by senior management. Ackermann resigned immediately. Ackermann had tried to change the culture at Zurich of courteous and quiet internal meetings. His position was non executive chairman but he took a vigorous role. Zurich Insurance was facing a difficult macroeconomic environment and missed three year operational targets set in 2010. Wauthier was a 53 year old dual French-British citizen who joined the company in 1996. He worked in southern California for the company in one position, where he improved his surfing skills. The differences between the hard charging investment banking demeanor of Ackermann and the quiet demeanor with engagement in sports of Wauthier, suggests serious differences in management styles leading to conflict that ended in tragedy....

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Leonhardt points out in the NYT that Hillary Clinton actually won in the popular vote by a substantial margin, by more than 2 million votes and more than 1.5 percentage points. He says that Democrats need to pay more attention to the working class in midwestern states- the job losses, crumbling infrastructure, and the plight of communities such as Detroit, Michigan which suffered through the bankruptcies of Chrysler and GM, and again with the foreclosure crisis, the financial crisis of the City of Detroit. With a similar situation in the neighboring states of Wisconsin and Ohio, in places like Toledo and other parts of communities facing industrial decline. While the Silicon Valley centred region powered the economy in California, and the financial industry and real estate powered New York, older midwestern communities never really recovered from a long decline stretching over 2 decades. The result was the loss of faith in Democrats among union workers and young people, leading to the loss of Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan. For most of its history the Democratic Party was based on its union and working class base including a large number of white voters. Only under Obama because of his unique candidacy was the coalition so dependent on the minorities vote. Before minorities were part of the Democratic coalition, but not in the way under the Obama candidacy. A return to its historic and normal base among whites in unions and working class communities, liberals, minorities, is a way to go back to the historic and natural base of Democratic support. In a sense dependence on tech communities for election funding and the tech booms, globalization, may have distorted Democrats sense of their historic role as champions of the working class and middle class communities throughout the country. There is now an opportunity to restore this lost mission of protecting the interests of the middle and working class who have seen huge drop in net worth as reported by Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve at the Inequality Conference on October 17, 2014-"62 million households with a net worth of $11,000 for the year 2013." Poorly covered in the media and not made the utmost priority by Democrats (or Republicans). In the words of Janet Yellen, this was in the past several decades "the most sustained rise in inequality since the 19th century after more than 40 years of narrowing inequality since the Great Depression." She added the shocking words "by some estimates, income and wealth inequality near their highest levels in the past hundred years, and probably much higher than much of American history before then." Even discussion in the media goes back to the Obama coalition and treats it as a way forward for Democrats, when history shows it was different and the situation described by Yellen calls for a serious response. ...

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The first of a series of quarterly reports put out by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, on the subject of household debt and credit. It shows that the process of unwinding consumer debt in the US is a slow and painful one. The figures tell the story, which touch every aspect of the US economy and business, with ripple effects through the world economy. Total consumer debt is $11.7 trillion as of June 30, 2010, which is down 6.5% from the crest reached in the third quarter 2008. Credit card accounts are down 23% from the high reached in second quarter 2008, and mortgage obligations down 6.4% from 2008. By mid 2010 11.4% of consumer debt was delinquent, and this was up from 11.2% in 2009. $1.3 trillion of consumer debt is delinquent, and $986 billion is seriously delinquent- that is 90 days late. Serious delinquencies are up by 3.1%. Other figures fromt he Fed report: Half million people in the USA had a foreclosure added to the credit reports for the period March 31, 2010 to June 30, 2010. This was up 8.7% above the figure for first quarter of 2010. New bankruptcies showed up in credit reports for 624,000 people during that quarter, an increase of 34%. Another major problem stacked on top of this for consumer spending- the Fed's interest rate policy according to Todd Petzel, chief investment officer of Offit Capital Advisors, burdens consumers with a tax of $350 billion in income lost from low to zero interest rates. This creates two problems of its own. Not only does it depress consumer spending. It also makes consumers reach out for riskier investments. This figure was calculated by taking $14 trillion in debt issued by Treasury, federal agencies and municipalities. Rates are near zero on short term Treasuries compared to 3% average over the years. Taking 2.5% on $14 trillion, the figure of $350 billion was arrived at. Or 2% of gross domestic product. Analysts say that it would be better not to save a few zombie banks at the expense of consumers and pension funds. It lowers the cost of the deficits through the lower interest rates the government pays on its debt, but lower consumer spending and a limping economy hurt tax revenues and increases the deficit....

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The Iraqi army takes over the Al Nuri Grand Mosque in Mosul, but what the mosque and the city itself lie in ruins. The minaret is gone in the debris, a shattered city is what is left from the Islamic State takeover of the city in 2014 and the eight month effort in 2017 by the Iraqi army to retake the city.   For more depth see links and groups or search- The problems of Mosul started with the openly sectarian administration of prime minister Nouri Maliki leading to alienation of Sunnis in Mosul. Corruption in the administration and weakness in the Iraqi army combined with alienation of Sunnis to create an opening for a militant group Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. As Iraqi units disintegrated Mosul fell, leading to a worsening of the refugee crisis in Syria and Iraq, increasing the flood of refugees to Europe, and the series of terrorist incidents in Paris, Berlin, London, rise of right wing groups in the European Union, in a chain reaction. The failure of the Obama administration to setup a "no fly zone" in Syria simply compounded the crisis into what it is today. At the root of the crisis - the failed efforts to reconcile Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq, and the sectarian conflicts in the region as a whole stretching from Saudi Arabia and Egypt to Iran.     ...

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A detailed discussion of P/E ratios and opinion of different experts on why the U.S. stock market may be overpriced in 2012. The divergence between P/E ratios in Europe and the U.S. is of special concern. P/E ratios for 10 years in Germany and France are at 12, compared to 22 for the U.S. The gap between U.S. and German and French valuations is about 10%, compared to a 120 year average of 1.7 percentage points, says the chief investment officer of Citi Private Bank in London. Safety is one factor, but the divergence is too wide to be accounted for by safety alone.

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With the effects of the government tax credit fading, Commerce Department numbers show a 33% drop in sales of new single-family homes from 446,000 units in April to 300,000 annual rate in May 2010. The supply of homes for sale went up by 47% to 8.5 months in May from 5.8 months supply in Aprill 2010.

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For the second time in two decades U.S. carmakers embrace SUV's with growing demand, moving away from passenger cars. The last time this happened in the decade before the financial crisis of 2008, automakers in the U.S. took a big hit when SUV sales collapsed, with GM and Chrysler heading into bankruptcy, and Ford in dire straits. This time increases in fuel economy and a more favorable economy are leading to higher demand for SUV's. In 2017 sedans, coupes and other passenger cars made up 37% of U.S. sales compared to 51% in 2012.  The Trump administration's move to lower fuel economies in a way poses new risks for U.S. automakers, as it is the very strong push for higher fuel economy and rapid improvements in the technologies that make this possible that have made the newer SUV's such as the Ford SUV line more attractive to buyers.  Historically the U.S. automakers have slipped badly on this issue and not managed it well as economic swings have completely reversed automakers profits. This mistake will be repeated without the automakers own push to drive demand in directions that cushion it from reversals in the economy with a broad based product line supported by new technologies. A look at Japanese car strategy shows a commitment to this concept of maintaining a borader based product line with new technology advances in each segment. Something where the U.S. automakers have found themselves asleep at the wheel. ...

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The increase in immigrants in German society is creating new tensions especially with immigrants who fail to integrate into German society. A large increase in refugees from the wars in the Middle East in 2014 is creating new tensions. Asylum applications went up from 127,023 in 2013 to 181,453 for 11 months of 2014. According to the OECD the 1.2 million immigrants admitted to Germany in 2014 make it the second largest destination for economic migrants in the world. Immigrants have also come from Greece and other countries experiencing economic difficulties. The protests in Dresden, drawing 10,000 people, show a significant minority opposes the current immigration policy. Similiar opposing views were expressed in the recent elections in Sweden and at the elections for the European parliament. The CDU Interior minister Maiziere says the Pegida movement cannot call itself as "patriots," as the acronym Pegida stands for "patriotic Germans against the Islamization of the West."