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The broken world economy has hurt the American people, in small communities and towns across the US whose societal fabric was destroyed by a system of world trade with abuses done by China. Japan, European Union, Canada and Mexico since 2000. Shortsighted American leaders and economists allowed this to happen. Robert Lighthizer on the New World Order a new system of world trade that replaces the old in 2026. The old trading system was one in which lip service was made to free trade while all the time the system was used by Japan, Germany, China, Canada, Mexico and other nations to build non tariff barriers and other policies to support their industry  at the expense of the United States leading to disillusionment in the US. The facts are mind boggling- the loss of 5 million jobs, many small communities across the US decimated with loss of jobs. About 20 trillion in wealth transfers to China and other countries over 2000-2020, with foreigners owning $27 trillion more of US assets than the US owns of theirs. US Trade Deficits that went up by 40% in 4 years of the Biden administration from $800 billion to $1.2 trillion. Economists and weak leaders got it all wrong allowing this to happen from Geoge W. Bush to Clinton Bush and Obama. Lighthizer says "shortsighted leaders aided and abetted this process," from 1990 to early 2010. Consider that US had 17.3 million  people in manufacturing, in factories all over the US in 1970, in 1999 we had the same number of jobs, even though there were changes in technology and productivity- the US held its own with the rest of the world. The Bush, Obama years were the worst for the US industry - by 2026 we have 12.6 million - loss of 4.7 million jobs since 1999. And real median household income took a big hit growing from $72,000 to $84,000 about 17% in the last 25 years, compared to twice that in the period 1975-2000 prior quarter century. The result is the fracturing of American society- and dire consequences for healthcare as communities suffered from loss of jobs leading to drug overdoses, alcohol abuse and suicides, which are common in post industrial American communities. Think of this fact: two thirds of America's workforce that does not have a college degree, that is working class people, lives 8 fewer years than college graduates, a gap that was only 2.5  years in 1992. The wars carried on by Bush and continued by Obama in the Middle East also wracked these same communities till Biden and DJT pulled out. One has only to drive across America to see this with one's own eyes. Trade may be an abstract topic for economists and politicians- there is nothing abstract about this. And the economic growth of the US has suffered with the unfair trading system with China, European Union, Japan, Canada and Mexico. From 1945 to 2000 American growth was 3.2% a year. Since 2000 only 2 years of growth over 3%. US has not seen historically normal growth for the last 19 years and at this rate (if we continued along this path) the Congressional Budget Office says 1.8% growth for 2027-2035. There are other factors yet the the major driver of this is our trade deficit of $1.2 trillion dollars a year. It is a story of remarkable persistence in the Nation's interest through 2 adminstrations- this Lighthizer story. Lighthizer fought Japanese commercial interests as Deputy Trade Representative under Ronald Reagan, and as US Trade Representative under DJT in the first DJT administration in 2016-2020. His Deputy at the time is Jamieson Greer who is now the US Trade Representative in the second DJT adminstration in 2025. For 30 years this brave American patriot has fought to reverse the bad actions of presidents and economists that have led to devastating losses in the American countryside. He says any new trading system must be perceived as fair to working people. It will survive only if working people think it is good for them. It cannot and must entrench a small, permanent elite. The benefits going to labour must be at least as great as those going to capital. It should create fulfilling high paying jobs for the vast majority of the American people. This is America's new promise to its people, its new compact with its people. ...

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How unequal Britain is compared to say Finland or France and its effects on gender relationships is shown in this report by Elle Hunt in The Guardian. Wealth and assets grow faster in value than income growth in the UK and a small section of the population has inherited wealth that accumulates faster than income. Vast gaps in income and wealth are shown for several marriages, how each person felt in the marriage, how they had to deal with public perceptions, and where their own sense of wellbeing helped them navigate this territory. In France or Finland with lower wealth and income disparities and a different culture much less of this is expected than in the UK or the US which has Anglo-Saxon cultural tendencies.

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There are about 2.4 million workers on American farms. 44% of them are undocumented workers says the Department of Labor.  They do jobs such as picking the fruits and vegetables that are part of the food supply. Deporting them all will increase prices of farm products as harvesting fruits and vegetables will be difficult. During the Eisenhower administration in 1953 deportation plan large growers in California and New Mexico used seasonal agricultural labor from Mexico, and the nation's food supply of vegetables and fruits depended on these workers. These companies lobbied hard for ways to keep these workers. On the other side were smaller farm owners who used fewer migrant workers. The complication this time 2024 is that unlike in 1953 under Eisenhower mass deportation when the border was otherwise peaceful, in 2024 the US has faced a decade unprecedented in its history of flows of fentanyl and drugs across the southern border. The deportation is about migrants who are not easily integrated culturally into the US, about the dangers of illegal entry in such large numbers that it disturbs the quiet life of the small towns and cities in the US. The US needs immigrants but in a planned way with legal entry, and no flows of drugs across the Border, that protects the American people and serves America's interests.    ...

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The US faces a shortage of hydroelectric power in western states as the runoff of water from the mountains is only 25% of its normal level. The drought in California and the lack of hydroelectric power will lead to blackouts in the state. Normally Hoover dam provides electricity to power 1.3 million homes with 23% going to Nevada, 13% to Arizona, and the rest to Southern California. With the water levels low in Lake Mead, Hoover Dam will provide only a small fraction of the electricity it normally does to California. Colorado river's Lake Powell which feeds into Lake Mead has only 25% of its normal water levels.

The dry winter and spring led to less snowpack to feed rivers and streams in California, with loss of enough water to produce electricity for about 1 million homes for a year. This means more blackouts will hit California and western states.

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Trump says he supports the House Republican tax plan for three brackets 12%, 25% and 33%. In his earlier proposal Trump has supported a top rate of 25%. He made these comments, including support for deducting childcare costs, in a speech at the Economic Club of Detroit. Trump did not repeat a call for repealing Dodd-Frank bank supervision legislation. Clinton was critical of Trump's economic team of business people from hedge funds and the real estate industry, saying this was another example of "trickle down economics,"  for giving  "super big tax breaks to large corporations." Michigan has not voted Republican since 1988, and the auto industry rescue was organized by president Obama, a point heavily advertised in the 2012 presidential campaign. Romney had opposed the rescue effort, and during the 2012 campaign the WSJ reports say  Trump called the bailout of automakers a mistake because of expansion overseas.

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The 2 tier wage system is scrapped at U.S. autoworkers Ford, GM and Fiat Chrysler after a vote following the Fiat Chrysler negotiations leads to a rejection of the system. This is a major achievement of UAW president Steve Williams and union members. All autoworkers can now have a path to the top factory wage of $29 per hour.

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This report looks at the high tech devices that help monitor seniors at elder care facilities and at home in Japan. Japan has a rapidly growing seniors population with three million expected to be over 90 by 2025, and over 65's expected to be one third of the population by then. The government's goal is to keep seniors in their home for as long as possible, and use information technology to support caregivers. Of 92 Japanese startups looking for valuations over $1 billion 25 are focused on health care, with backing not much from VC's (only $32 million in 3rd quarter 2018) but from large companies looking for growth businesses. Patient monitoring devices are getting funding from companies such as Sharp Corp, Canon and others. Devices check details including whether people are at risk of falling out of bed or taking too long to get back from the toilet. Healthcare for elderly in Japan will reach about $300 billion by 2025 and new advances are expected in monitoring seniors- including for such devices as DFree that help patients  know about how to monitor bladders, also used by caregivers to know when to take someone to the bathroom.  ...

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There are more women drivers in the U.S. than men. In 2011 50.5% of licensed drivers were women. This is an increase from the 39.6% figure in 1963, according to the Federal Highway Administration. Part of the reason for this is the decline in young men getting drivers licenses, and the larger share of older drivers with more women in that age group. Even though women still earn less than men the numbers are increasing, with women making 81 cents to every dollar made by men in 2012, increasing from 62 cents in 1979. In educaton levels achieved women are doing better- Labor Dept figures show 30% of women born in the early 1980's with bachelors degrees, and only 22% for men. That suggests their earning prospects will continue to increase. Studies by R.L. Polk show women prefer more fuel efficient cars. A study by RDA Group shows women buying the average new car in 2012 at a price 12% less than the average car bought by men. Only two of the top ten cars purchased by women in 2012 were U.S. brands- the Ford Escape at No.7 and the Chevy Equinox at No. 9. This shows that Ford, GM and Chrysler have more work to do to attract women customers....

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Chinese are saving for the future as there is no safety net, no social security and no welfare or food stamps.And this means there will be a strong cutback in consumption and in sales of most products in China. Even before this global economic crisis China was becoming even more export oriented. In the last decade consumption as percentage of GDP actually declined from 47% to 37%. And the $586 billion stimulus has some measures to boost consumption but most of the money will go to infrastructure like new highways, railroads and airports. Housing construction is coming to a halt with home prices down 15% in Shenzen. And layoffs among exporters in the area north of Hong Kong like Li Kai which made 9 million sneakers for New Balance in 2007 will make 7 million in 2008, and is laying off 22% of its workers. Migrant workers are headed back home. The sales of foreign firms will be affected. GM's Buick brand saw sales decline an estimated 12% this year and JD Powers estimates decline in 2009 by 21%. Researcher BDA China sees cell phone sales down to 9% growth each year for next 5 years, down from 30% increases in the past 5 years....

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This report in the WSJ gives an inside look at recent events in Venezuela. Venezuela's Opposition was fractured without a common strategy to deal with Mr. Maduro for the last 3 years, until Jose Guiado and a small group called Popular Will decided to take action. On Jan 23, 2019 very few opposition leaders knew that the leader of the National Assembly, Jose Guiado, would declare himself president in front of a crowd of 100,000. Venezuela is enduring horrendous inflation of over 1 million percent for the year. After 3 years of setbacks a small group of opposition leaders decided to take action seeing the National Assembly as reflecting democratic voice in the country. In December leaders discussed strategy and a breakthrough came on Jan. 4th when the Lima Group of 14 Latin American countries and Canada called on Mr. Maduro to hand over power to the National Assembly. Most countries have not accepted the results of the recent election of Mr. Maduro. As recently as Jan. 22 even Mr Guiado was not convinced. It was only after Mr. Mike Pence the U.S. VIce President called to express support that he came around. ...

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Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida  holds talks with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi. Japan has pledged to increase trade with India with $42 billion in investment in India over 5 years. In the 20 years 2000-2019 when Japan invested heavily in China, Japan invested only $32 billion in India. The US and Germany also invested heavily in China, compared to the investment in India.  Business in the US, Germany, the EU, and Japan integrated their economies with China over two decades. The Trump administration brought attention to the US working class and the effects of trade and investment that hurt workers in the domestic economy. The election of Biden in the US, Scholz in Germany and Kishida in Japan have shifted focus to the working class, inequality, lack of infrastructure investment in the domestic economy, and the effects of business decisions that cost jobs in the domestic economy. It is in this context that foreign investment is being shifted to India, Vietnam, and other manufacturing locations in Asia as the entire world supply chain is being reinvented to protect workers in the domestic economy, and the local economies. The pandemic and the war in Europe are now accelerating the reinvention of world supply chains. Indi abstained from the vote in the United Nations on Ukraine yet it maintains that all disputes be settled through peaceful resolution under international law. The joint Kishida Modi statement says- "We confirm that any unilateral change in the status quo cannot be forgiven in any region, and it is necessary to seek peaceful resolution of disputes under international law." ...

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A Berlin based think tank, German Institute for Economic Research, says Germany could end its dependence on energy imports by winter of 2022. That is much sooner than mid-2024 as Economy Minister Habeck has stated.The issue has serious urgency as the war continues in April in Ukraine entering a new and more dangerous phase in the east. And every day oil and gas imports by European Union gives Russia $16 million for coal, $434 million for natural gas, and $489 million for oil, a total of close to $1 billion every day.  With new missile attacks on civilian buildings this is one way for European Union to shoulder some of the burden that it has not done so far. DIW think tank says this could be done with decreased industry and household consumption that could generate about 18-26% savings of the demand for Russian natural gas, suggesting that households turn down thermostats and use less warm water, and industry turn to alternative fuels such as coal and biomass. Another saving is from increased supplies from Norway and the Netherlands of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Increased supplies from Norway alone says DIW could cover 20% of current annual imports of gas from Russia. Instead of waiting to build new infrastructure, the new LNG terminals on the coast which face long construction times and eventually falling demand for natural gas which make them financially untenable, the best approach is to use existing infrastructure in LNG terminals in the Netherlands, Belgium and France to increase volume in EU pipelines. Such action would cover 25% of demand for Russian natural gas. Other action is get more efficient use of the European pipeline system to increase German gas imports from Algeria, Libya and other North African nations vis southern EU nations. ...

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So far 17 million people in the UK have received the Astra Zeneca vaccine.  35 cases of blood clots, 15 of pulmonary embolism and 22 of deep vein thrombosis have been reported across the UK and EU. In a normal year more than this number of cases of blood clots are seen say experts. These occur naturally in the population, including elderly population. Astra Zeneca's chief medical officer, Ann Taylor, says the number of blood clots in the 17 million people who have received the vaccine across Europe is actually lower than would be expected in the general population. The EU countries of Germany, France, Netherlands and Italy have temporarily stopped using it after 3 healthcare workers in Norway had blood clots. In Germany 7 out of 1.6 million had a rare condition of cerebral sinus thrombosis. Both EU and medical regulators say that there is no evidence that these blood clots are caused by the vaccine. The number of clots are similar to what was seen in the population before the coronavirus. Also this report in The Times says taken together there is no difference between the number of clots in the population that received the Pfizer vaccine or the Astra Zeneca vaccine.  The Daily Telegraph reports that one in 1000 people have blood clots every year, so that for 17 million people in vaccinated population with the Astra Zeneca vaccine there would be 17000 cases of blood clots over 12 months. During the clinical trials Astra Zeneca reported there were fewer people with blood clots who had been vaccinated than in the people who were not vaccinated. ...

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Horowitz provides a rare portrait of Donald Trump's father, Fred Trump. This is  useful in understanding Donald Trump because as Trump says frequently many of the traits- self-promotion, aggressive business promotion, taking advantage of political connections to advance the family business, penny pinching for construction sites- are all traits he inherited from his father. His father did not want to go to Manhattan as business was already nice and easy in Brooklyn and other places. The son went into Manhattan and put his name on Towers he built in the city. Fred Trump benefitted from the FHA and depression era programs setup under the New Deal by FDR, and the flow of immigrants and returning veterans, the zoning allowances given by politicians. Without this the business would be nowhere as successful as it was. Making it self-made only upto a point, in the intensity and the individualism displayed. Fred Trump was born in 1905 to German immigrants who spoke mostly German at home. His brother John was into books, and went on to teach at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, so the family was certainly aspirational immigrant. Fred was the doer and started his business with his mother at the age of 21, and by 28 had won the mortgage services business of a failing German bank, by 1938 at 33 he had setup property developments in Brooklyn. Federal Housing programs were the key- homeownership was emphasized in the New Deal with F.H.A. 25 year mortgage loans- as affordability was an issue in the Depression era period. Fred Trump keenly used these loan subsidies with price tags so it would be a stretch to say the business simply went up on the intensity and the business skills.  ...

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Voter turnout of 83.5% in federal elections in Germany in Feb 2025 is the highest since reunification in 1990.  The Free Democrats and the Wagenknecht BSW  fail to meet the threshold of 5% for representation in parliament. The CDU manage 28.5% of the vote less than the forecast 30%, and the AfD is at 20.7%. Scholz Social Democrats drop 9% points from 25% in 2021 to 16.5% and the Greens are at 11.7% of the vote. The Left Parties get 8.7%. German broadcaster ARD cites exit polls showing 82% of voters were dissatisfied with the government coalition, 72% of voters dissatisfied with chancellor Scholz, yet the Greens  voters gave it 45% approval.  In terms of seats in the 630 seat Bundestag  Christian Democrats  208 seats Social Democrats.      121  The Greens                  85  Left Party                       64 AfD                               151        The likely outcome is resignation of chancellor Scholz and new leader for Social Democrats. A CDU SPD coalition Merz as chancellor, with Greens/ Left parties and AfD in the Opposition with equal number of seats.                                                                                                        ...

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Under a new law going into effect on Oct. 1, 2017 and supported by Angela Merkel's government, all social networks will be required to delete within 24 hours "all illegal content." This is an effort to take immediate action against hate speech, libel and other illegal content. Companies could be fined upto $57 million. Germany's Justice Minister Heiko Maas said "we cannot accept that social networks ignore our laws." Mr. Maas says the voluntary effort setup earlier had not worked as the social media companies were too slow. The law now means the networks will devote more resources, with Facebook increasing the staff for this purpose doubling it almost from 4500 to 7500, showing that the problem had not been addressed the way it needed to be. The new law details 22 sections of the criminal code that social networks need to enforce. Including laws banning libel, character defamation, hate speech, insults against religions, offensive statements and privacy violations. Britain's May and France's Macron have also called the efforts of the networks insufficient. A similar law in the U.S. before the 2016 election could have saved the country from many of the problems arising from illegal content being posted, including damage to the image of the U.S., inciting deep divisions, racial tensions, hate rhetoric and defamation leading to coarsening of public dialogue and debate.  During 2016 many European leaders were exposed to hate speech including Angela Merkel. The social networks were slow to respond and did not take their civic duty as seriously as they should have considering the grave damage to the social and political fabric of the U.S. and the European Union countries. The governments also took time to act, studying the problem carefully before taking action leading to further damage, one reason the current legislation was passed quickly and decisively. Experts say other countries will act following the German example to preserve civil dialogue and strengthen democracy. ...

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The Agnipath scheme for Indian Army, Navy and Air Force is explained here in The Indian Express. The scheme is for 45,000 to 50,000 people between about 18 and 21 years to be hired each year. These trainees will be kept for 4 years, and only 25% of those in training will be selected to continue for another 15 years. The recruits will receive between Rs 30,000 and 40,000 a month. 30% of this will be retained for benefits trainees will receive.  The idea behind it is to lower the average of soldiers in the armed services from 32 years to 26 years to reflect India's youthful population and to help those returning to the job market to find jobs in business or as entrepreneurs starting new business with government help. The experience gained in the armed services is seen as also becoming attractive to businesses that are hiring good disciplined employees. The circulation of people joining the services also makes the army a leaner force of about 1.3 million and keeps the cost of pensions at reasonable levels. With India's rapid growth in coming years the trainees leaving after 4 years will have better job opportunities and can contribute to the economic development of the country in many ways. Upon leaving the armed services the trainees will get about Rs. 1.2 million as a package to make a new start in the economy. If there was a death then Rs 1 crore would be given by the government. The government will offer skill certificates and bridge courses so that the quality of trainees remains high and this would provide a skilled workforce for the economy during a period of high growth. A modern armed services like that of India constantly being filled with next generation technology should be able to offer these new recruits the skills and training in advanced electronics, computers, and other technical fields with field training to supplement courses, and the motivation to excel, that would be valuable to many companies. This is the idea behind Agnipath. It is also a tested path as the US armed services also provides this kind of training and many people who have joined and left the US armed services have performed at high levels in American companies in technical and managerial positions. Another feature is "All India All Class" which will make it open to all caste, all region, all religion, and free up the armed services from the current situation of regiments having a caste and region bias. This is a constructive and well thought through aspect of the plan. ...

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All three countries in the South Asian neighborhood now face economic crisis of large proportions - Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, all turning to the IMF for help. In the case of Sri Lanka there was help from the beginning from India. It was lack of jobs and not enough jobs generated even with a decade of 7% economic growth. It was in protests over job quotas reserved for independence soldiers that led to the ouster of Sheik Hasina's government. This report in NYT shows overdependence on garment exports which generated growth for decades under PM Hasina as having a drawback during Covid. The disruptions in the supply chain during Covid hurt Bangladesh when garment earnings dropped. At one point the industry was closed for months. India provided assistance including vaccines during Covid and India is the largest destination for Bangladesh exports with economic ties to 5 Indian states. The recovery from Covid has not been strong and has led to reduction in foreign exchange reserves. In 2022 Bangladesh turned to the IMF for assistance. Not enough jobs were being created for a large population. In 2000 the population was 129 million, in 2019 before pandemic 165 million. Today in 2024 it is 171 million, increasing by 33% from 2000. By contrast in a communist state Vietnam population increased by 22 million to 99 million or 29% in 2024 from 2000   Foreign exchange reserves dropped during the pandemic to $23 billion in July 2023, in the last 11 months it dropped by $4 billion to $19 billion. By comparison Pakistan's are at $13 billion, up $4 billion in 11 months. Foreign remittances from Bangladeshis overseas are another source of foreign exchange. The major problem of getting tax revenues with people and business not paying taxes due is a problem for Bangladesh and for Pakistan. India has made huge gains through GST and digitization of economy to get tax revenues to support economic growth and infrastructure. And under the leadership of prime minister Modi there is discipline, girt, a strategic focus, with good governance, that is similar to what helped transform Japan and China into industrialized nations. This is missing in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh and in Burma. This gives some idea why in the present budget north and eastern Indian states of Bihar, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, with a combined population of 230 million people are in a specially designated region for development. It is a gathering momentum against centuries of foreign occupation and neglect similar to that seen in China. ...

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Dan Balz of the WP points out the effect of the bruising campaign with Bernie Sanders on Hillary Clinton's negative perceptions by April 2016- with the references to her fund raising speeches on Wall Street and on other issues. The NBC/WSJ poll in April 2016 shows her with minus 40 negative ratings among men, mimus 72 among white men, among women minus 9 points and minus 25 points among white women. With minorities her net poitive with Latinos has dropped from 21 points positive in the first quarter to 2 points positive, and for African Americans dropped from 64 points positive plus to 51 points positive.

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Derek Scissors writes that the effects of stimulus weakens over time, even in economies like China's that are only partly market based. And he says China has used stimulus for years. He says that in 2001, fixed investment was at 38% of GDP, investment growth 12% and revised GDP growth 8%. In the first 3 quarters of 2010, GDP growth was 10.6%, but this required investment growth of 24% and that was with fixed investment now equal to 72% of GDP. These figures suggest the difficulty of getting growth at higher and higher levels of investment. His view is that more likely than a crisis is a stalling economy.

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A detailed discussion of P/E ratios and opinion of different experts on why the U.S. stock market may be overpriced in 2012. The divergence between P/E ratios in Europe and the U.S. is of special concern. P/E ratios for 10 years in Germany and France are at 12, compared to 22 for the U.S. The gap between U.S. and German and French valuations is about 10%, compared to a 120 year average of 1.7 percentage points, says the chief investment officer of Citi Private Bank in London. Safety is one factor, but the divergence is too wide to be accounted for by safety alone.

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IDC reports that Samsung sold 72.4 million smartphones in the second quarter of 2014. The pace of growth is slowing as Samsung faces intense competition from Lenovo, HTC, ZTE in the low end of the smartphone market. High marketing costs are pressuring margins. Samsung second quarter net profit increased by 50% over the prior year quarter. Samsung expects weaker sales of the Galaxy S4 and has ramped up marketing promotion. Demand for expensive smartphones is declining. This has resulted in a 12% decline in Samsung's share price since late April when Samsung started selling the Galaxy S4. Apple faces a 22% decline in profits in the second quarter of 2013.

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Novartis bought form Nestle SA a 25% stake in Alcon for $11 billion with an option to buy Nestles's remaining 52% holding in 2010 and combine its eye care operations with Alcon's. But there is uncertainty about how this will work out and at what price Nestle will sell as share price of Alcon has dropped. This leaves Novartis in a bind when it comes to other acquisitions as it has to raise and set aside capital to complete the Alcon acquisition. Novartis raised $5.5 billion in debt in February 2009, and $2.2 billion in a bond sale in June, and will raise more capital.

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A 60% turnout in the election in Kashmir with the National Conference Party under Omar Abdullah winning 28 seats out of 87 seats, and the People's Democratic Party winning 21 seats and the Congress Party winning 17 seats. A coalition between the Congress party and the National Conference party is expected. The turnout in Srinagar the main city was 20%, higher than the 5% in 2002, which suggests that the terrorism in Kashmir is focussed in areas like Srinagar and in the rest of the country including rural districts the people are looking for ways to improve their lives free of the violence and poverty resulting from the insurgency.