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The Lewinsky scandal broke out in January 1998. Bill Clinton admitted "an imprpper relationship" in August 1998. The vote to impeach Clinton was in December 1998. The acquittal took place in Jan-Feb 1999 with the lack of a two thirds majority of 67 votes in the Senate. The damage is not just in reputations. It is in distraction sufficient to lead to flawed legislation that lacked key provisions for the China US Relations Act of 2000 that was taken up by the Senate in May 2000. Could such a major step be taken in the last year of a lame duck administration? Republicans returned to the White House in December of 2000 with George Bush. There were no provisions in the China Relations Act for abuse of the status after joining WTO through unfair trad practices. The result is millions of jobs lost and the entire manufacturing base of the US and Europe shipped to China by 2019. Under Xi Jinping China returned to an adversarial relationship with the US on the issues of Hong Kong and Taiwan. It could have done serious damage to the 1.4 billion people of India as the gap between China and India opened up dangerous security implications for South Asia, a time when governance model of the Nehru era had failed by 2014 leading to fragmentation of the kind that happened in China when Japan had surged ahead in the 1920's and 1930's leading to the devastating war and Japanese invasion of China in the 1930's by provoked incidents. It shows the grave consequences of poor governance including the periods under Bush and Obama that led to decisions to get into wars in remote mountainous and desert regions. A series of such events can as shown by Joel Mokyr of Northwestern University, that can lead to permanent decline for regions and nations. Under both Biden and DJT an effort is underway to respond to these challenges. ...

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Action by the Securities and Exchange Board of India to limit the foreign investment through offshore derivatives that is helping to create a sudden rise in the stock markets, about 40% increas this year in stocks, and 12% increase in value of the ruppee.

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Allyson Chiu and Emily Wright show how inventors in India are working on more efficient residential air conditioning units that cool single rooms. About 1.2 billion units are there across the globe, billions more may be needed to replace the old ones and to meet surging demand in Asia, Latin America and Africa. International Energy Agency estimate is for these AC units to triple by 2050 what they are now, adding 2.4 billion AC units. Using the existing technology and emissions would mean putting 2 billion metric tons of emissions from these older AC units into the atmosphere in 2050 or what 476 million cars put out, says IEA.  The Indian government, RMI, a global coalition including Gree of China, and Daikin of Japan are doing the research on new AC units. In 2015 about 5% of India's 300 million households had such AC units. 8-10 million units were sold in 2023. This would rise to 1 billion units sold and installed by 2050 says IEA, that would emit 25 gigatons of cumulative emissions in 2050, or what a staggering  6 billion gas powered cars emit. ...

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Washington Post Analysis and reporting shows Russian economy is now sensitive to cuts in oil purchases by India. Russian economy with $213 billion a year in the war effort would suffer from higher inflation and interest rates higher than current 18% if India cuts Russian oil purchases of about $119 billion a year. A shift may be already taking place as India buys more from Saudis, UAE and Iraq. Studies by CLSA cited in the Economic Times show India gaining only about $1 to 3 billion by buying Russian oil. India has much more to gain by shifting away from Russian oil. Russian inflation is at 9% and the economic growth is about 0.4%.  A further increase in interest rates from 18% in a war time economy could kill the civilian economy say experts in Russia the Washington Post has talked to. About 17% of Russian refineries production is removed by Ukrainian strikes on refineries in Russia, leading to higher prices for oil. More crude oil is being exported instead of refined product as a result. This explains why the US under president DJT decided to take the difficult step to deter India from Russian oil purchases as it would not have been able to get China to reduce its $136 billion Russian oil purchjases each year the way it could for India. This was done to end the war even though it is little understood in India.  ...

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Indian salary growth is expected to be 15% a year and salaries for professionals doubling every 5 years based on GDP growth for Vikshit Bharat 2047 of 12% per year. This is why India will seek to limit migration to legal migration only and further limit the brain drain by creating attractive opportunities in India, including ones from GCC's or global capability centers of foreign corporations in India that are expanding as US reduces its overdependence on China for manufacturing and returns jobs and factories back to the US.

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PM Narendra Modi is nominated in the historic old parliament building in New Delhi for a new five year term in office by the parties in the National Democratic Alliance on June 7, 2024. The importance of the event is because of the 294 seats of 543 in parliament of the NDA parties and the nomination based on achieving the vision of a developed country similar to the US, EU, Japan and China, by 2030. With the modernization complete by 2047, the 100th anniversary of Gandhi's struggle that won Hind Swaraj (Indian freedom), the title of a book put out by Gandhiji in 1909 as he negotiated a settlement with the British Empire for South African Indians and Black people. Leaders of every party in NDA cited this as the reason and the goal in their nomination speeches.

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Bollywood actor Aamir Khan is compared to Tagore as an export from India that helps improve Sino-Indian understanding and relations. Aamir Khan's movie Secret Superstar was received with acclaim in China, and reflected issues that China also faces of gender inequality, domestic violence, and the social presence of You Tube  and internet. A young Muslim teenage girl is taken up by a You Tube video and sees herself in an a roleas a singer.

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Oil prices and the US war with Iran -Straits of Hormuz how much of it remains open, European supplies, and drop in production in Gulf region, how these risks are managed will have an impact on inflation. Inflation could end up at 2.9% instead of 2% says Greg Ip. Gep Ip does not take into acocunt new flexible oil policy under which India gets a waiver to buy oil supplies from Russia, China sources more of its supplies from Russia to make up for the supplies lost from the Middle East. Russia steps in for a temporary period to keep oil prices lower. US ramps up Venezuelan and its own oil production to meet the needs of other countries such as Japan and S. Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Europe. Conservation measures are enacted to reduce oil use for the same level of GDP as taken in Japan and Germany.

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A senior Indian diplomat, and former ambassador to China, Gautam Bambawale, says China's action in the June 15 clash at Galwan Valley was the worst violence since 1967. He sees it as a premeditated and well thought out action. His view is that India's relations with China will deteriorate further. That this was an action by the PLA to take territory to what it sees as the LAC or border. For small tactical gains he says "China has strategically lost India." This will impact trade and other relations going forward in his view.  Nothing of this sort was expected says Bambawale. All the agreements put in place since 1993, everything for tranquillity at the border, all the mechanisms, have now collapsed. Bambawale has provided a very lucid and clear account of the relations and the border issues. He goes on to say that Chinese observers have given reasons for the Galwan clash with PLA- that India should stay away from the US and other democracies such as the European Union. Some reflection shows that the opposite has happened. And further reflection would show that the same situation was repeated in the period of transfer from British Empire to Republican India, and from Nationalist China to Communist China from the period 1947 onwards. Different perceptions and different leaderships that gave the perception of gaps between the two countries. In the 1950's after the Korean War Chinese perceptions about India could have led to the incursions that brought China to the borders of India in 1950, similar perceptions of gaps in development and capabilities could have led to the conflict in 1962. From 1993 peace prevailed with India after China entered the World Trade Organization under president Clinton in 2001 following a 10 year effort. Because the focus in China was on development after a series of crises, internal sense of a widening technological gap with the US and Europe, disagreements with the Soviet Union, and the experiments with market economy, internal struggles for democracy. With that period coming to a close as the new trading relationship has led to working class losses in factory jobs in the US, China is faced with protecting its economy as it and the US look at changing supply channels and how it affects both countries. It is a critical time for China as it faces governments in US, France, UK and Canada determined to protect their own interests in manufacturing jobs, renewing supply channels, and in technological advancement. The response is similar to that in 1962 when seen from the Communist party perspective as a gap has opened up with India following China's progress in the 30 year trading relationship with the US and Europe. That gap and the difficult situation China faces today with the US and EU in trade and technology has brought forward the Galwan clash and future clashes in Ladakh and at the border.  As Mr. Jaishnkar, India's Minister of External Affairs as well as former ambassador to China,  has pointed out this is a very different aspirational India that China faces. The same kind of grassroots development that happened in China and rapid pooling of capital, human resources and technology inputs for development is taking place in India, and will continue for the next two decades, quickly bridging any gaps in modernization between the two countries. The difference between a youthful population in India and aging population in China and Japan, is likely to add another dimension. China's Buddhist culture that came from India is not likely to go away, more likely is that China will see a revival of Buddhist ideas of wellness and living more as culture than religion. The experience with British colonialism that prevailed both in India and China, and which from its base in India caused so much grief to China during the Opium wars will recede from memory. Extending borders from historical memory of Japanese incursions into border areas in Manchuria could have led leaders after 1950 in China to extend borders to remote areas in the Arunachal region of India and communist theory books may have created the perception of defensive moves. In the context of an aspirational India similar to China, and no real intention on the part of India to extend itself in any way to China's provinces in Sichuan, this extending of borders as a defensive move will be seen as stemming from memories of Japanese incursions in the 1930's, but simply costly and not relevant in any way to China's own aspirational development and progress. ...

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The Hindu's Piyush Pandey describes the fire sale of assets that is planned as the Reserve Bank of India pushes forward with the effort to clean up the balance sheets of Indian banks. Indian banks have an estimated 5 lakh crore of bad loans. Separately Crisil ratings agency cited the bad loans in the banking system as a hurdle that must be cleared for India to make the necessary investments in infrastructure in the next five year period 2018-2022. The Hindu's own review shows a startling amount of debt in the ten largest corporate business groups in India-  500,000 crore of debt to the banks. Anil Ambani's group alone owes 121,000 crores to the banks, with some of the businesses not able to service the debt. Canadian pension funds, Nippon Life Insurance and other foreign companies are taking stakes in business as this process takes place. The Mukesh Amani Group alone has increased the debt load as a result of the 150,000 crore rupees spent on Reliance Jio. Other investments that have led to losses is the steel business of Tata Group in Britain, which is down to zero value, says the Hindu. This report gives details of the fire sale for the other leading companies in India. ...

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PM Modi opens the new campus of an ancient university named Nalanda University which is dated from the 5th century AD to 12th century AD in Buddhist India. Nalanda means the gift of knowledge, that is also a theme for Lyrarc.com as an open site for all as a gift of knowledge. Near this campus is the Maha Vihara ancient Buddhist temple which has been restored after excavation from ruins. Modi is shown on the site of the ancient Buddhist temple in its current renovated state. Around Nalanda University are the other places of the Buddha- Kushinagar where the Buddha spent his last years, and Bodh Gaya where he attained enlightenment under a Bodhi tree in the 5th century BC. From here by the 5th century AD Buddhism spread to China, Korea, Vietnam and Japan, through Bodhidharma Indian prince who brought Buddhism to China.

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The Indian government is putting a 76% stake in Air India up for sale. Air India has not made a profit since 2007 and a bidder would be taking on $5 billion in debt. What makes it attractive is a market in India growing at 20% for airline passengers. Potential bidders include Indigo, which is interested only in the international business of Air India to add to the 9 destinations overseas it flies to. Vistara, a joint effort of Singapore Airlines and the Tata Group is also a likely bidder. Air India has international slots at London Heathrow and at New York JFK airports that are attractive for bidders.

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AIIMS Director Randeep Guleria says it is critical to do three things to prevent a possible third wave from becoming a serious threat in India. The three steps are- to adopt covid appropriate behaviours such as mask wearing, social distancing and washing hands and to not fall into the habit of thinking that the virus has gone away when it is spreading and developing into new mutations. To do testing, tracing and micro containment zones quickly to isolate infection prone areas and prevent transmission. Gene sequencing analysis would enable understanding variants quickly to respond. And to vaccinate rapidly the entire Indian population, a program which is being tackled by the federal government.

These tasks are critical also to let the economy recover and let all segments of society recover soon from the pandemic. It is through mutual responsibility and fulfilling one's duty by every citizen that this becomes possible.

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The most senior management person of Indian origin in the US financial business, Vikram Pandit came to Columbia University from India at the age of 16, receiving a doctorate from Columbia. He was in a teaching position at Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana before joining Morgan Stanley and heading its institutional client division. Richard Parsons was leading the committee making the choice, and Robert Rubin was lobbying hard for Vikram Pandit because he is deeply thoughtful, has international background, and can bring the strategic sense that Rubin sees as important. Rubin will help from the sidelines as Head of the Citigroup Executive Committee.

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Indian and Chinese leaders agreed to increase trade from the current $60 billion to $100 billion by 2015. China agreed to open its consumer markets to Indian pharmaceuticals, information technology and agricultural products to better balance trade between the two countries. During the first 10 months of 2010, China exported goods valued at $32.9 billion dollars to India and India exported $17 billion to China.

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Foreign institutional investors responding to negative sentiment for emerging markets in general took out $2.6 billion from India in August 2015. Yet average allocations to India for emerging market funds have increased to about 10.7% in July 2015, because India looks much better than other emerging markets. By comparison China is at 20.25%.

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US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says this is not chaos in tariff policy because you don't change 70 years of policy overnight. He says China's is highest because it has the highest trade deficit, then EU, Japan, South Korea at 15% because of the smaller deficits with these nations, Vietnam because it is used  by China to send products to the US, India because of geopolitical reasons buying Russian oil. See Dasha Burns, Politico White House Bureau Chief's  interview with USTR Jamieson Greer.  He says about India- Jamieson USTR calls India "an outlier" and says "I'm confident we will get a deal with India in the near future." India he says has largely corrected its imports of Russian oil and negotiations are underway for a deal.  ON USMCA Greer says of the $31 trillion in trade with Canada and Mexico $29 trillion is us right. trade between Canda and Mexico is small. So he says it makes sense to negotiate separately with Canada and separately with Mexico. This suggests that there doesnt need to be a USMCA- separate deals are just fine says Greer. Mexico has gained much in automobiles under USMCA- US wants to make more in the US including auto parts which it can do by negotiating this with Mexico. It does not make a ton of economic sense to marry the three economies together, says Greer, as the import export profiles, lab,or situations are all different. Are Tariffs good for the economy and do they lead to higher prices? Greer says inflation was down in the first DJT term in trade with China and tariffs. Greer says there is never a 1 to 1 with tariffs. It tariffs become a kind of leveage in getting agreements. That is the style of these tariffs. You tell Ecuador or Brazil we don't make these here so there will be no tariffs on bananas and on coffee. Says Greer- we have seen inflation in check, imported goods relatively low priced. We have seen that we can have growth and higher wages with tariffs at the same time. The growth in 2025 third quarter at 3.8% annual growth, and Atlanta Fed predicting 4.2% growth in 2026. And tariff money can be used for paying down the debt and financing America's reindustrialization, Greer says members of Congress are asking about this.When a new administration comes tariffs will still be part of the playbook. ...

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Questions raised about Price Waterhouse's audit procedures, whether it contacted the banks directly to verify the cash balances on hand and whether it looked for signs of trouble like the huge discrepancies between net income and operating cash flow in recent years. The Institute of Chartered Accountants of India, India's professional accounting body is conducting its own investigation and may revoke licenses and remove members for violations of its code of conduct and ethics.

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China's Xi Jinping meets leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Tianjin, a northeastern coastal city near Beijing. He will meet Putin and Indian prime minister Modi. This is Modi's first visit to China in 7 years. A parade in Beijing will mark the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II with attendance of Putin with Xi. On May 9 2025 Xi attended the parade in Moscow on the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II. 

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Srinivasa Raghavan reviews 3 books in the Business Standard on Periyar, Kamaraj, and MGR. Brahmins are a caste in India that held sway under the British rule in Madras in the Madras Presidency and dominated the professions and local government. Madras presidency was named Tamilnadu after independence. Think of Brahmins like the Boston Brahmins as upper caste, and the Irish as another deprived caste the Vanniyars in Madras state.  Madras was a very caste conscious state Periyar led a movement of Self-Respect for the lower castes improving their social condition. Kamaraj was from the entrepreneurial Nader case and was part of Gandhiji's satyagraha in Tamilnadu in 1925, going on to lead the Indian National Congress Madras wing by 1940. Madras state was very poor in those days- with 80% of the population illiterate under British rule and with agriculture based extreme poverty. Kamaraj changed the face of Madras, adding schools and high schools, midday meals in schools, and set up industry with large public sector projects, brought dams and electricity to the state, between 1954 to 1963, 13 years of transformation, may be the biggest in India in the period 1950-1975. ...

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Kudos to Ellen Barry for hands on reporting right from Amethi, Uttar Pradesh state in India. For years UP (Uttar Pradesh) has been seen as one of India's most backward states, even though it is the largest state in India centering around the Ganges valley. Politicians were content to use backward parts of the state as mere vote banks at the time of elections. The elections in 2014 focussed on development are beginning to change this. The Gandhi family based in Allahbad, India, had Amethi in UP as the place where family members stood for parliamentary elections. In recent years as the Gandhi family's grip on UP loosened, the same vote bank policies were employed by caste group parties led first by Ms. Mayawati and then Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav. The elections of 2014 were about making the shift and sea change in Indian politics in the heart of the country- the north central Ganges valley region- away from vote bank politics and caste groups. The BJP under Gujarat's Modi focussed the election on development and delivery on infrastructure and jobs. For too long reporting on an important part of Asia has been laid back from metropolian centres without the hard work needed to grasp the situation in the countryside and on site. Kudos also to NYT's Bearak's report from Ladakh on the enormous logistics required for an election of this magnitude with about half a billion voters. ...

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The reasons for pessimism are the effect of the global credit decline which makes it harder for Indian business to get access to credit, and the impact of shrinking export markets overseas. The lower inflation and less need for oil subsidies with the fall in the oil price are positive factors. The biggest positive factors though are the fact that exports amount to a much smaller amount of GDP, about 22%, smaller than other Asian exporting countries, as the export markets shrink. The resilience of its democracy and the energy and dynamism of its young people, added to the demographics that show about half the population is below the age of 25, and 40% under the age of 18, so there will be more wage earners and savings to support growth for decades to come. What experts including at the Economist see as the major advantage is the high savings rate which has risen from 28% in 2003-2004 to 35.5% in 2007 according to the Economist statistics. With this the investment rate in India has grown from 25% in the 1990's to 35% in the last five years since 2003 with Indian manufacturing growing at arate of 12% in 2007. And the Indian investment rate has been covered mostly by domestic savings. The two areas that hobble growth are the education levels and the state of the infrastructure which are challenges for organizations inside and outside the government and for business and will remain so for many years. With the global financial crisis the Indian growth rate is expected to fall to somehwere in the range of 5-6% for 2009 by experts. ...