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This report in the WSJ gives the background and positions taken by Patriarch Krill of the Russian Orthodox Church, and his support for the war in Ukraine as part of Russian lands nationalism. Russian lands nationalism is an idea that comes from the beginnings of the Russian version of Christianity that had its origins in Kviv Ukraine in the 10th century. Patriarch Krill has had a varied role questioning some some state policies and then backing off and supporting the state says WSJ. In 2011 patriarch Krill stood up for protesters critical of manipulation in parliamentary elections that year. Patriarch Krill grew up in the years of Soviet rule and was 24 in 1970 when he began his work in the church. He was rector of a seminary in Leningrad by 1984 and after being critical of the Soviets and war in Afghanistan was sent to Smolensk says this report in WSJ. After he returned he worked with the Soviet state, and after voicing concerns in 2011 about parliamentary elections described as manipulated he has supported the Russian state as it becomes assertive about Russian lands nationalism. To understand the Orthodox Church in Russia one has to know its presence in the post Soviet period. About 63% of Russians belong to the Orthodox Church. It also includes Ukrainians. After Crimean invasion by Russia the Ukrainian Orthodox Church that makes up one third of the Russian Orthodox parishes was recognized as a separate church by Patriarch Bartholomev of Constantinople. Patriarch Bartholomev and Pope Francis the two leaders of the eastern and western churches in Constantinople and Rome have been critical of Patriarch Krill and his support for the war and the idea of Russian lands nationalism. Since the war some parishes in Russia have signed a letter opposing the killing of brothers in Christ and one parish leader was fined $500 for his statements. There is now intense debate among Russians about what this war means in bringing conflict on brotherly peoples about their preferences in 2022 for aligning with Europeans in the western part of Europe. For most of Europe in the 21st century there is a big change, in the countries near the Baltic sea in Northern Europe, in countries in the middle of Europe, in Eastern Europe, the 21st century is seen as a time when states and peoples are making their own choices about freedom and what their preferences are particularly the young people. They no longer understand or conform to ideas of the earlier period or centuries. And this is what has made Ukrainian young people oblivious about what Russian lands nationalism means and its relevance today. Buddhism is today not prevalent in South Korea a democratic state and in China a Communist state in the way it existed for centuries. For it to be relevant people need to begin to believe in it as in Japan or Sri Lanka or Thailand. In the 21st century young people are making different choices and this may well be where the Ukraine war shows that people's choices count particularly in the 21st century, and it has little to do with the west or the US or NATO or even Russia. ...

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Trade shows and exhibitions for different industries are limping back to life in Europe. One show for camper vans in Dusseldorf, Germany, uses a limited physical event with online and virtual contact as a way to stage a successful event. The new world is one of hybrid shows in 2021 and beyond with digital media and physical activity in the real world mixed in. Europe's cities depend on a large share of their business on fairs. Everything in trade fairs is being scaled down and new ways are being tested.

The CIbus agricultural products fair in Parma, Italy too place is a slimmed down version focussed on a conference on how to relaunch Italy's agricultural and food industries. Masks mandatory and social distancing strictly done. Two auto camper fairs are planned one in Dusseldorf this weekend and one in Parma.

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Just five prime ministers have remained in office for more than 5 years in Japan since 1945. Prime minister Yoshihide Suga's popularity dropped to 26% from high sixties since September 16 of last year. Five candidates are trying to lead the LDP party. Another period of uncertain revolving door politics appears to be the prospect. This would mean a weak effort in vaccinations and in tackling the coronavirus pandemic. 

Just as in Europe and the US, in Japan there are effects of the pandemic, economic downturn, widening social disparity, plus a contracting population. Yukio Hatoyama, Yoshhide Suga, and Shinzo Abe in his first term served for short periods of one year or less since 2012. There is a perceived need for the older leaders to retire from politics and let a younger generation tackle the problems the country faces as in Europe.

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The future both of Turkey and Europe at stake in the elections in Turkey. Turkey has been hit by inflation of over 60%, a severe earthquake, difficult relations with the EU and the US, a lack of foreign investment. The mayoral elections in Ankara and Istanbul went to opposition parties. A civil servant is heading the opposition parties contesting the election with Mr. Erdogan who has led Turkey for 2 decades.

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Emergency teams face subfreezing temperatures as they work to keep the power on in Ukraine. Russia has attacked Ukrainian electricity power grid causing blackouts in many areas. This attack on civilian infrastructure is one aspect of the war in addition to the millions of refugees woman and children, that has caused particular outrage in Europe and America that Russia is following a pattern that is unacceptable in the course of human affairs.

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What happened with the Allied strategy of area bombing of Hamburg with 4 British raids a day, in 1943 when victory was far from assured, is shown by a historian of UK German relations. Most of the city destroyed, a million homeless.  King Charles's visit to Hamburg does a lot for reflection on this part of history, at this time of war in Europe.

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Queen Elizabeth opens the Elizabeth Line in London and uses a 6 pound Oyster card. The Crossrail project crosses London from east to west and is the most important London transportation project of decades, the largest infrastructure project in Europe. The total cost 19 billion pounds with 5.1 billion pounds from the government. It was first thought of in the 1800's and part of a Rail study in 1974. 

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The US has become the world's largest gas supplier and provides a lifeline to Europe as it struggles with a cutoff of Russian natural gas supplies. The NYT looks at this remarkable development with graphs showing how this happened. This also makes it possible to lower the cost of gas for heating homes this winter in the US to ease the cost of living burden on US households.

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India registers an amazing comeback feat of 75% vaccinated with two doses on January 30, 2022, without the resistance to vaccination seen in US and Europe. For over a billion people this is nothing short of extraordinary. India's experience is similar to that in other parts of Asia and Latin America where people trust health authorites, after years of dealing with many diseases requiring vaccination in the last 50 years.

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In an intervew with WSJ's David Pearson, Tom Enders, CEO of Airbus, points to the changes at Airbus after improvements in governance in 2012, leading to a smaller role for the governments of France and Germany. One is the shift away from Europe. Compared to 2004 when Airbus orders were 50% from Europe, this has dropped to 10% in 2014. Airbus is also staying away from a 623 million euros loan from Germany for the new Airbus A350 widebody jet, because of pressure from the German government to allocate work to German factories. The same policy will be followed in future programs to rely less on government support. Enders does not want to be tied down to certain workshare agreements imposed by governments with the loans. In 2012 Airbus reduced the role of the German and French governments with a large increase in the percentage of shares traded on stock markets. In the past the funding was critical for programs. Today Airbus has 9-10 billion euros on its books because of booming sales.

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Portugal is Europe's largest bicycle maker, making many brands such as Rodi, FJ and RTE. Portugal makes 2.6 million bikes more than Italy at 2.1 million. Most of this is done in Agueda, a town 45 miles south of Porto. 60 factories employ 8000 people in Agueda.

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WSJ and NYT, Wash.Post exaggerated defense of Denmark's claims to Greenland. DJT says there is nothing in writing that says Denmark owns Greenland. The NYT, WSJ cite 1916 Treaty that transferred Danish West Indies to US for $25 million.  The agreement in 1916 said Denmark would extend its economic and political arrangements across Greenland, which was the status quo, but this did not give ownership of the island to Greenland. In 1947 US president Harry Truman offered $100 million for Greenland. This was a generous offer and would be around $1.5 billion in today's terms. The agreement of 1916 is superseded by Admiral Perry leading the US Navy's exploration of Greenland all the way to the north of Greenland at the Arctic northern most points in Greenland. The US planted its flag on Greenland at the time. DJT on Truth Social planting the flag is nothing new. Admiral Perry is never mentioned by NYT, Wash Post and WSJ, the television media and Google internet other AI, which gives the Denmark government an opportunity to misrepresent US claims to Greenland since 1890's and leave out Adm. Perry's discoveries in Greenland. By comparison a few Danish boats and Norwegian boats landed in Greenland. Worse it sets up the Europeans for actions that Scott Bessent says are "unwise". It is mainly Denmark and the Nordics who are in opposition, the rest of Europe has no stake in Greenland and would be better off with the US owning Greenland. Danes were a colonial power and cannot bring up the Greenland Inuit population of 50,000 smaller that what would fit into a baseball stadium as they had never sought to help the Inuits. As recently as 1803-1848 Denmark was struggling to abolish the slave trade in its colonies in the West Indies- it is something that can easily be looked up. It was the US with it's Declaration of Independence by Thomas Jefferson that laid out the vision of a free people which also fought the Civil War under Lincoln by the 1860's with loss of millions of lives for a free and fair society, something the European colonial powers failed to do. Denmark should accept the offer of $1.5 billion from the US consistent with the US offer from Harry Truman in 1947, and not use the European Union to create dissension within Europe as it has done so far in a misleading effort that does not serve the interests of Europe. ...

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One of the opportunities of this pandemic is that it offers a chance to think anew and act anew. Where in Lincoln's words "the dogmas of the past are inadequate for the stormy present, as our case is new we must think anew and act anew." Here Vladimir Putin offers his assessment of how the pandemic calls for a fresh approach to reviving De Gaulle and other postwar European leaders vision of Europe that spanned the entire continent culturally including Russia. He accepts mistakes have been made by all sides and the title of the article by Putin is "Be Open, Despite the Past." The Russian Embassy in Germany contacted De Zeit for publication of an article by Putin, and it can be seen as part of the Russian response to president Biden's effort to build a new cooperative relationship with Russia that is in the best interests of the US, Russia, Germany, the European Union and also of India which has a cooperative relationship with Russia. There is the danger that it could be seen as reported in The Times of London and comments posted seeing it against distrust built around Ukraine and Eastern Europe. The 670 Comments in Germany on De Zeit site on the article reflect a more German perspective of being a close neighbor that suffered so much from the war that left millions dead on both sides. One German commenter says his father and grandfather were forcibly recruited to fight in France and Russia and suffered much in wartime. The occasion is the 80th anniversary of the German invasion of Russia in World War II. Some of what Putin has to say- "We hoped that the end of the Cold War would mean victory for all of Europe. It would not be long before Charles De Gaulle's vision of a unified continent would become a reality, more culturally and civilizationally from Lisbon to Vladivostock." Russia has changed, Russians see themselves as European, as part of the larger European Union, culturally and civilizationally. This is not the old Russia of the Cold War or of the Soviet period. "NATO itself a relic of the Cold War, created out of a confrontation from that time." Not objecting to NATO but to the expansion of NATO to Russia's borders. But saying this has not got us anywhere where our heart not our brain says we ought to go. Lets try again to draw different conclusions from what we have seen. Its important to think anew because "we are all confronted with the common challenges of the pandemic and its extremely serious social and economic consequences." "The entire prosperity and security of our common continent are only possible through the combined efforts of all our countries, including Russia because Russia is one of the largest European states. Wed feel our inseparable cultural and economic ties to Europe." "We simply cannot afford to carry around the burden of previous misunderstandings, hurts, conflicts and mistakes. A burden that prevents us from solving current problems. We are convinced that we all have to admit and correct these mistakes. Our common and undisputed goal is to ensure the security of the continent without dividing lines. And to create a unified space for equal cooperation and collective development in the interests of the prosperity of Europe and of the whole world." President Biden was right to think anew and act anew in Geneva, and to "disenthrall ourselves" from old ways of thinking, and for rising to the occasion. Jill Biden said of president Biden's preparation for the meeting in Geneva- "Hell, he was overprepared," and it showed Biden's genuine feeling and effort that he owed it "in the interests of Europe and the world."       ...

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In the manner it has handled Omicron variant South Africa is a beacon of transparency and hope, and of scientific advancement, says this report in the WSJ. Stephanie Nolan in her reports in NYT which Lyrarc commended as exemplary, shows how South African frontline workers were fighting the pandemic, and other reports showed how the scientific community in South Africa was using its advanced labs working with the US and Europe to tackle the variant. This is the opposite of what happened with China, says Marc Siegel, clinical professor of medicine at NYU Langone Health.

 

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Inflation and asset price bubbles in India and China, and low inflation or near deflationary conditions in the US and Western Europe. With the US depending for about half of its growth on exports in 2009 and early 2010, according to Commerce Department figures, the tightening of credit by central banks in the high growth countries of Asia will crimp America's economic prospects.

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US president Biden authorizes $350 million in immediate military assistance to Ukraine. Western leaders now believe that NATO countries are at risk if they do not help stop the invasion, as it now appears that Russia seeks to restore a sphere of influence across Eastern Europe that existed under the Soviet Union. In 1956 Soviet tanks entered Budapest, Hungary. A situation reminiscent of that in Hungary is now taking place in Ukraine in 2022. Earlier the Russian view of Ukraine neutrality was accepted by western leaders- the situation has changed during the last week, as it is now perceived that Russia seeks to change the situation in Eastern Europe. This completely alters western Europe's and America's view of the situation in Ukraine. All this has happened in a matter of days, and in a few weeks. On the Russian side the invasion is not popular with street protests in Moscow and people on the street skeptical about the invasion and its objectives. The view is beginning to emerge that this invasion only breaks the fraternal ties between the Belarus, Ukrainian and Russian peoples that have existed for centuries. In this sense the politics and governments of the present are not relevant as much as the shared history. Ironically it is this shared history that Mr. Putin seemed to want to assert. Yet it ignored the fact that Ukraine also has a shared history with Poland and the Baltic countries and the desire for a different system of government is common to all the people's of the world. Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Indonesia and India; UK and Scotland or Ireland; Sweden, Norway and Denmark, Canada, Britain and the US; Hungary, Austria and Germany; all have a shared history yet the people in each country at different periods of history have made their own choices and decided what they would do as independent countries.  ...

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How do you setup a vaccine business. Consider Mr. Adar Poonavalla in the city of Pune in India. His company Serum Institute of India, remains family owned. Founded in 1966 by Cyrus Poonavalla, it produces billions of doses of vaccines for measles, polio and other diseases. It is expected to be one of the key sources of vaccines because of its expertise and the stocks of vials and other supplies that it has in stock for the next 2 years of vaccine production. It is working on a separate facility for coronavirus production that could turn out 800 million doses of vaccine at a price of about $13 a dose over 2 years. Serum Institute is working with 3 companies that are doing the research on the vaccine for coronavirus in the U.S. and Europe, and will play a key role in the manufacturing of vaccines. To respond to the question how do you setup a company to produce vaccines for the people of the world. This is what Mr. Poonavalla says- he will only work with ethical long term funds and sovereign funds because he does not want to be in the situation where he has to charge high prices to give them returns. Unlike most countries in the world, India is unique in making certain that most of the basic pharmaceutical drugs are available to over a billion people at a low cost. Serum's goal is low cost quality vaccine production so that over a billion people in Asia can be "protected from the birth onwards." As the U.S. and Europe and large parts of Asia, Africa and Latin America, face the second vaccine phase of the coronavirus response following difficulties in PPE, Ventilators, and Masks in the first phase, they can have confidence because of companies such as Serum and the research centers in U.S. and Europe like the one at Oxford University. ...

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The Dow Jones Average stock index drops by 800 points on August 14, 2019 with the ratcheting up of tensions in Hong Kong over autonomy protests, and the ongoing trade U.S. China trade dispute with more tariffs in September. Weak economic data from Europe exacerbated the situation. 

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The tech boom bust since 2000 that has hurt America and Europe and which also laid the foundations for the loss of manufacturing and technology to China, ceding American leadership and critical advantage, is shown here in the WSJ. The role of the finance sector  is explained here. That has added one more factor to the factor of endless wars in the Middle East, where American and European investment in healthcare, education and new infrastructure was somehow diverted away, and much of America's and Europe's resources wasted- or not turned to the benefit of the people of America or Europe.  One financial firm that rode the tech boom to the hilt finds itself with unacceptable losses except in a severe recession. Tiger Global Management was using tens of billions of dollars from pensions, endowments and rich clients riding on some of Silicon Valley's hottest stocks.  With the plunge in tech stock values including startups in which Tiger pushed into aggressively now facing large losses after hyper valuations, Tiger's hedge fund which managed $23 billion at the end of 2021 was down 52% in 2022. Another of its funds that managed $11 billion has lost 62%. WSJ says this wiped out two thirds of the gains Tiger has made in the tech stocks since its founding. In addition large writedowns are expected on its venture funds valued at $64 billion at the end of 2021, says WSJ.  WSJ says cheap money (money somehow diverted from infrastructure and funding manufacturing in China instead of the US now goes by the misnomer cheap money) reshaped Silicon Valley in the last decade, as pension funds, rich investors and celebrities turned to well connected money managers such as Tiger to put money in tech stocks and startups. This WSJ report says compared to Sequoia Capital and an earlier generation of venture companies Tiger Global is simply not interested in management of companies it invests in, taking a broad brush approach, using Bain Capital for research, and trying to haul in a large load of fish like trawlers at sea hoping for some companies to make big gains. Many pension funds such as Calpers California's public pension fund invest in Tiger with a $400 million investment. WSJ also reports that Tiger Global's venture funds do not reflect the realities of the tech business as venture stocks will reflect the drop over 2022 and 2023, including its ByteDance Chinese tech investment which will need larger writedowns. Tiger has also not hesitated to get into cryptocurrency which has loss of about $1.5 trillion dollars. It is of interest to note that Julian Robertson, hedge fund manager of the 2000 period (when Clinton-Bush were US presidents) who ran Tiger Management provided the impetus for Mr. Coleman, then 25 years old, for the start of Tiger Global. Julian Robertson closed his fund in 2000 during the dot com bust. Coleman hired a Blackstone analyst and started on the next cycle of tech with social media platform Facebook now Meta, followed by China's JD.com as investments in a new China boom were started. The end result is that during a period of Middle East wars under Bush and Obama, and building dependence on Russian oil and gas supplies under Schroeder and Merkel, China was the gainer as the US and EU lost much of its manufacturing and technology to China. During this period US and Europe neglected investment in infrastructure that would benefit the people of America in ease of living and quality of life. Just as money was wasted in wars much of the tech investment was wasted. The companies that added value over time were started long before and relied on sales growth and new products that revolutionized their field such as Apple with smartphones that started well before the nineteen eighties, Amazon with logistics and its own style of management, Microsoft from an even earlier era. Tech monopolies Facebook, Google, and others would not be missed much in terms of real progress for the people of America. The cost is many decades of ceding manufacturing and technology advantage to China by US and the EU led by Germany. China 2030 and the war in Ukraine with China's support have shown how fragile the foundations have been with weak political leadership and a finance sector running backwards in terms of America's and Europe's strengths in new infrastructure, better healthcare, services and education for the people of America and Europe. Leaving it to the Biden administration and a new coalition of Greens and Scholz in Germany to begin the task of rebuilding America and Europe on strong foundations, including the dignity of the workers and families, that makes who we are and what we believe in, and why the free world believes in us. ...

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Polls on Deutchland opinion trends show Merkel has gained support with her careful handling of Brexit, and the AfD has lost support. Only a month ago media reports covering the immigration issues had put AfD in the light of gaining using this issue. The infighting in the Conservative Party and the lack of any plans of ministers in the British government favoring Brexit for leaving the EU have Germans questioning this kind of politics compared to Merkel's promise of a "calm and composed manner" in dealing with issues of people's lives and the future of Europe. The extensive coverage in Germany of the vote for Brexit, the EU referendum in Britain, increased awareness in Germany of the benefits of the European Union. Merkel and other leaders offered their assessment of how the European Union has brought peace to Europe and improved the lives of the people during the pre Brexit media coverage. Now Infratest Dimap polls show the popularity of Merkel has increased to 59%. Compared to a June poll before Brexit things look better for Merkel-  the AfD Alternative for Germany has lost 3 percent of support dropping to 12 percent, the Christian Democrat party of Merkel is up by 2 percentage points to 34 percent in popular support, the Social Democrats also increasing support by 1 percent to 22 percent.The vast majority of people said the European Union provides security (74 percent) and prosperity (79 percent). Germans are skeptical about the value of referendums on such major decisions as EU membership because of swings in popular opinion such as that on immigration that swayed British voters- 49 percent saying parliament does better in these situations than a referendum, 42% saying referendums are better. For voters who said Germany was hindered by membership only 11% supported that proposition and 52% said the EU is beneficial for Germany. Over 75% actually favor more cooperation on refugees, data policies and energy, setting the prospect for a stronger European Union. Also proving the importance of responsible politics, and honest, flexible leadership, responding to people's concerns yet not pandering to swings in opinion for temporary advantage. A separate piece in the Guardian by Yonge points out that Cameron actually won only 23 percent of the eligible voters for Conservatives in the 2015 elections in Britain, reflecting a two decade slide. Brexit only made this failure widely visible, and did not escape the attention of the German people.   ...