LyrArc Article Gist
Arizona remains a state where the Republican and Democratic parties are very close. As Senator Krysten Sinema a Democrat, supported the Republican filibuster that required 60 votes for major legislation and thwarted some of president Biden's legislation to help workers and families in the US. Having alienated some Democrats she is now running for the Senate as an Independent. Her likely opponent from the Republican party is Kari Lake. Arizona is split three ways evenly for Republicans, Independents and Democrats. The question for Sinema says a Republican strategist is whether there are enough independents and soft Republicans who will vote for Sinema. Rep. Ruben Gallego is running for Democrats, Kari Lake for Republicans. Another question is whether Kari Lake's association with Mr. Trump could hurt Republicans in Arizona. Synema faces a difficult three way race as Democrats see her flagging support on key initiatives of the president as a serious problem.

LyrArc Article Gist
Savings for China and Japan by increasing oil imports at low prices could amount to about 1% of the economy for each country. Japan imports of oil are one tenth of total imports, and amount to $75 billion. At prices half of what they were before coronavirus the savings are about $40 billion a year. This will offset some of the drop in economic growth of about 3% in the year ending March 2021.

For countries where the coronavirus has been relatively controlled with manufacturing and infrastructure projects ready to go ahead the benefit is greatest. China expects to see about 7% decline in GDP in the first quarter resulting in minimal growth for the year as long as export markets in the U.S. and Europe remain weak. For India it depends on how long the lockdown continues and how quickly economic activity can resume under new conditions. 

LyrArc Article Gist
With more vaccines available from Pfizer and Moderna, and the poor SinoVac Chinese vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant, Brazil and other countries in Latin America and Asia are shifting away from Chinese vaccines. Brazil's federal government has halted negotiations for additional doses of Chinese vaccines. In the early stages in 2020 Chinese vaccines helped Brazil cope with the devastating rise in cases. The slow pace of vaccinations in US and Europe has freed up more vaccine doses of Pfizer for other countries including Brazil. From accounting for 80% of vaccines in Brazil early in 2020, SinoVac vaccines now make up only 35% of Brazil's vaccine doses. At that time Brazil bought 100 million doses of SinoVac vaccine which were delivered. The local producer of SinoVac vaccine, the Butantan Institute will no longer make Chinese vaccines. While Sinovac vaccines are effective at preventing deaths, the vaccines have a low effectiveness rate for symptomatic infections. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. government has said that there is enough evidence to start an investigation on the matter of imports of tart cherries from Turkey. Tart cherries are popular in agriculture near Traverse City, Michigan on the Great Lakes. About 300 million pounds were priced at revenue of $106 million in 2014 and today are priced lower to bring in $56 million. Prices dropped in 2019 from 2018 by over 30% with subsidized Turkish agricultural exports. After years of difficulty getting government to listen U.S. producers can bring fair competition issues to Washington D.C. The larger sweet cherry agricultural region is in Washington state with about $600 million for 345,000 tons in cherries. Michigan processors that pit, freeze and dry the tart cherries  normally destroy or freeze a percentage of the crop to maintain a stable selling price. A flood of imports changes price mechanism from operating for farmers.

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the Hindusthan Times on president Trump's 25% steel tariff on steel imports focuses on the trade deficit with China of $375 billion in 2017. It shows the trade deficit for the month of February 2018 citing data from China as growing rapidly in 2018 over the prior year by 45%, even as imports went up only by 6.3%. In looking at coverage in the U.S. on this topic many of the reports in the Washington Post and the New York Times were critical of the tariff without mentioning the size of the trade surplus of China. Hardly any reports mentioned the growth by 45% in the February 2018 trade surplus of China with the U.S. over the prior year.  This report cites a tweet by president Trump that China was asked to come up with a plan to reduce its trade surplus by $1 billion in 2018, only 0.27% of the trade surplus, which looks strange as this would do little to change the trading relationship except that it puts pressure on China to change the direction of the surplus that is growing because of the strengthening dollar and the growth in the U.S.  This suggests that even with the 25% steel tariff America's basic problem of the imbalance in trading relationship with China will continue.  The headlines critical of Trump for starting a trade war therefore look strange in this context and show how little this subject is understood or debated with facts. Even today textbook economics principles are cited after two decades of hollowing out of industry in the midwestern U.S. and in Ontario, Canada. This led to public sentiment shift electing a liberal Justin Trudeau in Canada, and an outsider real estate businessman Donald Trump in the U.S.  For Democrats in the U.S. the support of marginal additional gains in trade with president Obama's push for another free trade agreement in the TPP may have cost them theiir working class base and the election.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The first spread event for Omicron outside of South Africa is now known to be in Norwegian capital of Oslo. Some workers of renewable energy company Scatec SA returning from South Africa where the company has a solar panel project attended an annual holiday party. The party was at Louise an upscale Oslo restaurant, with 120 people all vaccinated, and tested the day before. More than half have tested positive for covid 19, with at least 13 having the new variant Omicron. Oslo municipal health department says it expects more Omicron cases among the 64 coronavirus cases as remaining workers get tested. The results so far are anecdotal and thin to be sure, yet they show none of the infected employees were seriously ill, says this report in WSJ, citing a company spokesman. The spokesman says people had different sysmptoms but none were severe. Tine Ravlo, assistant superintendent of the Oslo municipal government says- all of them are under isolation at home. And  for now they have what they describe as mild symptoms such as headache, cough, sore throat, and flulike symptoms.  Norway has 80% of population of 5.4 million people fully vaccinated. Mask mandates are in place again in Norway, private indoor gatherings limited to fewer than 100 people. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
When it comes to essential policy Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress can and will work together. A roughly $1 trillion infrastructure bill passed in the US Senate. Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell says there are issues that are popular with both Democrats and Republicans.  He said in an interview with the WSJ - "The American people, divided, sent us a 50-50 Senate, and a narrowly divided House. I don't think the message of that was, 'Do absolutely nothing.' And if you are going to find an area of potential agreement, I can't think of a better one than infrastructure, which is desperately needed." The infrastructure bill passed this week 69-30 in the US Senate. McConnell thanked president Biden for getting the Democrats ready to compromise to pass the bill. Biden's long experience in the US Congress compares with another US president, when getting Congressional action from both parties was needed. Lyndon Johnson had this type of long experience in the US Congress which enabled him to reach compromise with Republicans to achieve goals in civil rights legislation and in passage of Social Security during the 1960's. In this sense Biden is right for the 2020's when national rebuilding is the task before America. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Chief Correspondent of BBC News points out the dangers facing May and the British economy as the deadline of March approaches for invoking Article 50 to leave the EU and start negotiations. The possibilities of a "disorderly break" cannot be discounted, he says. There are many hurdles. The negotiations could get bogged down on the issue of settling outstanding obligations for which Britain owes 50-60 billion euros. Consumers will feel the effects of higher prices on their budgets as prices creep up. Already tech goods prices are reflecting the drop in value of the British pound. There is little solace to be found in the 6 months of steady economy following the Brexit vote as inflation has not hit consumers hard so far. Chancellor Merkel of Germany has said that there will be "no cherry picking" allowed in the negotiations. And the French right and former Gaullists have never concealed their views about Britain being on again and off again on the idea of Europe. The City of London, British business, and large parts of the Conservative Party do not favor Brexit, even the civil servants expected to implement it are skeptical, creating an additional layer of complexity and uncertainty and difficulty.Under a "disorderly break" Britain would revert back to the tariffs set under World Trade Organization arrangements. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Contrast the slow US vaccine export response with that of India, Russia, EU and China. Only in May 2021 after India's daily Covid cases were close to 400,000 a day did the US make a serious offer of vaccines to other countries in need of assistance. U.S. president Biden says that 80 million vaccine doses would be exported by the end of June 2021. The WSJ says citing Airfinity, a London research firm, as of May 10 more than 333 million doses of vaccine were produced by the US and only 3 million vaccine doses were exported. Contrast that with the European Union which has shipped 111 million doses overseas one third of its total production, Russia which has exported 27 million doses.  India has exported 66 million doses according to the Ministry of External Affairs website as of May 17, 2021. This includes 4 million doses to Brazil, 4 million to Nigeria. Within its own region Bangladesh received 10 million and Sri Lanka 1.2 million doses, Afghanistan 1 million. Mexico received about 1 million doses. In Africa the Democratic Republic of the Congo which has suffered from many epidemics including Ebola virus received 1.7 million doses, Nigeria 4 million doses, Kenya 1 million, Uganda 1 million. Of the 66 million about half of it is a direct grant assistance and Brazil, Mexico, Morocco received all vaccine as grant assistance, 70% of Bangladesh's is grant assistance. The list on the Ministry of External Affairs site of the Government of India shows 95 countries including many of the most struggling nations of Latin America and Africa, bringing hope to countries which are struggling to hold onto hope for a better life beyond the pandemic. Sending help overseas through vaccine supplies is suspended for the moment but will resume in July after India has pulled in all of its pharmaceutical manufacturing industry under a government guided effort to go all out. Never has so much help bringing much needed hope gone to so many countries of the world in the twentieth or twenty first century from a nation that is struggling to meet its own needs. The US in pursuing a US first policy of vaccinating all its citizens has not taken into account the need to bring this evolving vaccine technology into the hands of as many qualified pharmaceutical manufacturers as possible. This in a rapid response to expand manufacturing capabilities to meet world wide demand. The risks of not doing so were not taken on early- the very same way the virus spread in January to March of 2020 can be repeated as people travel around the world particularly for tourism, business family reasons. This risk takes on anew dimension of contagious mutations of the virus which are 50% more- the Indian variant being 50% more contagious by some estimates than the UK variant, which itself was estimated to be 50% more contagious than the original one.  The result a pandemic that stretches out indefinitely unless billions of doses are made in a short timetable to beat the timetable of Nature through the coronavirus. India is doing this for the first time with plans to produce billions of doses by engaging the whole of the Indian pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in the effort in a rapid response so that July to December would see 1.2 billion people vaccinated. The US effort, the European effort is left to the individual effort of pharmaceutical makers in the US and Europe, not a government guided effort to engage the entire pharmaceutical industry of the US and Europe in a rapid response timetable of 2-6 months.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China shifts its policy to allow 3 children per family after it sees the percentage of people in the population over 60 rising. This WSJ report show that the policy shift is being followed by changes in policies related to education with more equitable educational resources and reduced expenditures for education for families. Policies that were seen as making families hesitant to have more children.  Changes of the Mao era policy of one child, one family, are very recent. Not till 2013 has this policy changed, since its implementation after the Communist Party took over mainland China in 1949. In 2013 the government allowed families to have 2 children if one of the parents was an only child, and two years later in 2015 the policy was changed to allow 2 children per family. Only half of Chinese couples are willing to have 2 children, according to a study by the state backed All China Women's Federation. A once in a decade census shows 12 million babies born in China in 2020. In 2016 there were 17.9 million births. China's leaders noticed a change in the census for people over 60 as a percentage of the population, which was growing much faster than imagined from 13.3% in 2010 to 18.7% in 2020.  The perception of experts and Chinese couples in their thirties shows that the policy is seen as not enough to convince young couples to have another child. Typical is the situation of one parent cited in this report, a Beijing father of two. He says the policy has changed but it does not mean that he would have another child. He says it takes a lot of money and energy to take care of another child. It also affects the standard of living and education of the two children as he has already moved to a new 2 bedroom apartment to be near top schools in the Chinese capital. Another facet of this development is women in China postponing children to pursue their careers. Government policy is now to raise the retirement age with fewer people of working age to support the senior population. The percentage of the population of working age 15 to 59 years dropped from 70% in 2010 to 63% in 2020. Fewer people for working at Chinese factories and manufacturing. China's retirement age is now 60 for men and 50 for women, giving the government room to do this by bringing it up to western levels that are much higher in the US and Europe.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Galston cites a Federal Reserve Board of Chicago 2014 study showing setbacks for black people in achieving improvement in income status. Even for children born into middle income black families about 55% are expected to fall below middle income status compared to 36% for children of white middle income families. The problem is not just the gap as Galston points out but what it says for the declining income mobility for the white middle class when 36% are likely to see declining status and prospect for the future, and 23% will see no improvement. Overall it shows a lack of income and social mobility for whites and minorities alike compared to the past improvements since the 1960's, not a bright prospect and less hope for the future the way things are, and why so many of the establishment candidates and existing policies are being questioned by voters.

LyrArc Article Gist
DW.com looks at the Dutch elections on March 15, 2017, with an increase in support for right wing anti immigration parties. A look at a combination of polls put together by DW.com shows Wilders right wing anti-immigration party having about 15% support, the Freedom and Democracy Party of prime minister Rutte having 16%, and the Labor Party coalition partner having about 9%. The Dutch party system has about 5 parties each having about 10% of the vote including a Green centre left party, and parties with special interest causes. None of the other parties is expected to join Wilders anti-immigration Freedom Party to allow it to form a government, leading to a coalition between a number of parties in parliament or inconclusive result. Wilders still will have moved the debate in the Netherlands towards emphasizing Dutch identity. Dutch prime minister Rutte has called for immigrants not accepting or merging into Dutch culture to leave. A current exhibit at the Rijke National Museum in Amsterdam on the Afrkaaner story in South Africa gives some indication of how Dutch people now view the importance of their identity- scribbled on the walls as part of the exhibit were the large letters "I am Afrikaaner" and the exhibit showed a life size Dutch girl in the Hague wearing a dress in 1904 during the Boer War with a ribbon remembering Afrikaaners interned in British concentration camps. The tone of the exhibit was to show pride in Dutch identity, with a Gallery of Honor for Dutch heroes in the 17th century golden age of Dutch explorers and navy. Even though Netherlands is not expected to leave the EU the new government will likely show a shift towards Dutch identity within EU. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Russia stated at a meeting of OPEC oil producers that it would not accept cuts in oil production to stabilize the oil market. The coronavirus effects on the world economy have resulted in a sharp decline in demand for oil. This lack of an agreement among oil producers is leading to a steep drop of 30% in oil prices on March 9, 2020. The Russian position in talks was that it was too early for deep cuts considering that the  true impact of the coronavirus on the world economy was unknown, and that the loss of 1 million bbd from Libya had already reduced production. Experts say the Russians wanted to stabilize oil prices around $50 a barrel and the Saudis a bit higher. Under the OPEC agreement Russia would have to reduce its production by 1.5 million barrels per day (bbd), in addition to 2.1 million bbd from previous cuts that would be extended to March, which it found unacceptable. The impact of the double whammy of continued increase in coronavirus cases around the world and the drop in oil prices as a reflection of business confidence was also felt in world stock markets.  Russia's budget is less sensitive to oil prices than the Saudis. The Saudis need somewhere near $80 per barrel to breakeven. Analysts say Russia does not want to lose market share to American shale oil companies which do not have output cuts and benefit from lower oil prices. Shale oil companies in the U.S. are struggling in the present situation of low prices as many of them need $65 a barrel in price to breakeven. About 208 shale oil companies in the U.S. made bankruptcy filings since 2015.  The oil importing countries with increasing oil imports such as India will benefit from the drop in oil prices. Japan and other oil importing countries in Europe, Africa and Asia will also benefit as Russia and the Saudis go all out to increase production. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Taiwanese contract manufacturer Hon Hai is moving quickly to address higher costs for workers at its manufacturing sites in coastal regions of China. After extensive media coverage of conditions at Foxconn factories, a number of suicides, and Chinese government policy that encouraged higher wages for workers in foriegn owned plants, Foxconn has moved to sharply increase wages at its plants. By the end of 2011 production in cities in the interior of China- Chengdu, Chongqing, and Wuhan, where costs are one third less- will be 25% of production, up from 10% in 2010. By 2012, this will be up to 50% of Foxconn's production, according to Yuanta Securities of Taipei. Hon Hai is lowering dividends to finance the shift. Fourth quarter 2010 earnings of Hon Hai were $742 million, down 26% over the prior year, even though revenues went up by 56% to $33.1 billon- reflecting the higher costs. Hon Hai's stock is down 20% in the past year on the Taipei stock exchange. Other locations being considered by Hon Hai are Brazil, Turkey and Slovakia. Brazil's President Dilma Roussef, said that Foxconn is considering a $12 billion plan for Brazil. Hon Hai is the only manufacturer of Apple iPads and one of two manufacturers of the iPhone....

LyrArc Article Gist
Ford Motor Company's results in the second quarter of 2013 show sales up 15% to $38.1 billion. Profits were up to $1.23 billion from the $1.04 billion for the same quarter in 2012. Most of the profit comes from N. American market with $2.33 billion pretax profit in the second quarter of 2013, increasing from $2.01 billion in the same quarter 2012. Earnings in Asia were $177 million, after a $66 million loss in 2012 for the same period. Losses in Europe were down to $348 million from $404 million in the second quarter of 2012. Vehicles with a common platform strategy such as the Kuga in European market and the Escape in the U.S. market are part of Ford's strategy for maximum coverage worldwide are helping increase sales. Building of 7 new plants in China under a $5 billion investment plan and a 8th plant under construction have helped increase sales in China. As a result car sales in China increased 47% in the first half of 2013 to 407,721 vehicles, in a late effort to catchup with VW, GM and Toyota. Overall sales growth in the automobile industry in the U.S. provides about 20% of growth in U.S. GDP, according to Ford economists....

LyrArc Article Gist
VW opens a new plant in Russia to manufacture 150,000 cars in 2009. Russian sales of foreign brands went up by 65% in 2008. The sales there are 2.4 million vehicles. With the number of cars at 180 per 1000 people, compared to 552 in Germany, most cars on the road already 10 years old, and with a population 1.7 times the size of Germany's, the potential for sales in Russia are significant. VW plans to produce the Octavia and Passat models , later adding Polo and Skoda Fabia models. VW hopes to increase sales in Russia from 3.2% to 10% by 2010, to catchup wth Toyota which also opened a new factory near St Petersburg. In 2008 Toyota sold more than twice the number of cars sold by VW. See VW's progress in other areas in the link to Skoda. The Octavia which it will bring to the Russian market is a success story from VW's Skoda operations in Czech Republic.This is a lower cost vehicle compared with VW's other models. VW is one of the fastest growing brands in Europe, ahead of Toyota, and it does very well in Poland and in Eastern Europe. It is the leading brand in China, ahead of GM. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Frederick Taylor's engineering time standards for each activity are back now in retailing with H.B. Maynard now called OWO a company that devises engineered labor standardsfor every activity in the cashier line, from greeting to scanning and bagging. The idea is to monitor performance based on these standards. OWO says its methods can cut costs for labor by 5% to 15%. Stores like Limited, Gap, ToyR Us, TJX, Nike, Meijer supermarkets and others use them. If a cashiers falls below 95% of the standard he is watched by a manager and then he receives counselling, after which he may be transferred to a lowerpaying job or fired. Those who cannot handle the stress leave after a year or so on the job. Has OWO considered the impact on older customers who may simply decide not to shop at Meijer as cashiers may end up rushing them. Has it considred the impact on customers who now may not be looked in the eye with a friendly face. There is less talk between cashiers and it can speed up the line but wait there are fewer cashiers now so the waiting time may not change much as the whole idea is to cut labor costs by 5-10%. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Cai Fang predicts that by 2009 there would be a widespread shortage of workers, pushing up industrial wages. Figures from the UN Population Division show that China's working age population will decline in the years ahead. There are two things here that matter. The millions of people in a socalled surplus labor force that can be tapped so that industry can hire more people expand and grow without wage inflation, and second the working age population 20-29, younger people being preferred by employers for the long hours, single people who can stay in dorms and can be mobile to move near factories and do not have the restrictions of married people with children. The one child policy has limited the growth of the working age population. After rising by 1.3% a year according to the UN Population Division during the decade to 2005, the population of working age is expected to increase at an annual rate of 0.7% until 2015, and then shrink by 0.1% ayear until 2025. The surplus labor pool figures estimates vary from 150 million people to 200 million people, but the Economist estimates the true figure to be much smaller because government figures for the rural labor force include millios of migrants already in the cities and others working in rural industry not farming. The population of workers in ages 20-29 fell from 233 million in 1990 to 165 million in 2005. Because of this shrinking of supply of eligible labor especially considering the preference of textile and electronics firms to hire young women because they complain less and put up with long hours and for single men preferred by construction firms, Cai Fang believes that this preferred or eligible labor pool is shrinking to the point where it will be a problem in the years ahead. This will have the impact of shrinking the growth rate to around 7% sometime after 2009. Problems that remained under cover because of the Olympics will also become evident as 2008 winds down. Some experts argue that there are other factors that will contine to sustain the pool of available workers, but its this pool of preferred available workers that will be in short supply according to Cai Fang. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US Iran Memorandum of Understanding signed by DJT and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian, May 17 2026, with Pakistan as mediator. Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Qatar tried to bring the two sides together within Iran the RGC Revolutionary Guard Corps military and the president elected in 2024 (to tackle cost of living and other economic issues). and narrow their differences with the US. A key factor was China and the US president called China's actions "fantastic" in achieving the signed agreement to work out the details within 60-90 days of talks. Without China's help in imports and other assistance Iran's economy would be hard to sustain. China's own interests are best served by maintaining peace in the region as it continues to develop and modernize its economy. Russia also supported the agreement. Another contributor was India by setting an example for modernization and economic development as the true pathway for the people of West Asia, by bringing UAE, Egypt and other Arab nations in North Africa such as Morocco together in the direction of economic development and showing that cooperation in the region including with Israel is the best way forward. From the perspective of long term future of the region the presence of Modi and India at the G-7 meeting next to Macron and DJT shows there is now a G-8, with India joining Japan as two key Asian nations in the G-8. In this way the administration has achieved something that was never possible in either the old G-8 (that included Russia) under previous administrations after 2000. DJT's meeting with Putin in Alaska, and his visit to Beijing for discussions with Xi Jinping in 2025 and 2026, achieved the G-8 setting with India plus keeping China and Russia fully engaged in separate one on one arranged talks. This is a rare feat achieved in 2026 for the US, China, India and Russia, EU, Germany, that has never been done before to the lasting credit of the leaders DJT, president Xi, prime minister Modi, president Putin, and chancellor Merz- to their patience even in times of disagreement, their efforts to persevere when times were rough, and their foresight and wisdom in seeking agreement around what they shared in common.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
President Obama comments on the Trayvon Martin shooting saying- "Trayvon Martin could have been me 35 years ago." Trayvon is a black youth shot by police in a Florida gated community. Obama was critical of racial profiling and gun laws. Obama said three sets of experiences are shared by African American youth- being followed in department stores, hearing the click of car doors locking as they cross the street, or watching women clutch their purses nervously when they enter an elevator.

LyrArc Article Gist
President Biden gets his $1.9 trillion aid package through the U.S. Congress with 220 votes for and 211 against. All Democrats except one voted in favor and all Republicans voted against. Earlier the $15 minimum wage was dropped from the bill to get it through the Senate. Also kept were income criteria to prevent the $1400 check to individuals in households going to the most affluent income earners. The Senate vote was close - 50 to 49 in a party line vote. The Biden aid package comes on top of earlier aid under president Trump in 2020. This aid is likely to provide enough stimulus to the US economy to restore growth to levels that were there before the pandemic hit.

LyrArc Article Gist
As part of the trade deal with the Trump administration China agreed to buy $54 billion of oil and liquified natural gas from the U.S. by the end of 2021. This is showing up in U.S. oil making up 7% of China's imports by mid September 2020 from 0.4% in January. By the endo of October forecasts show U.S. exporting 700,000 barrels a day to China. The U.S. is displacing Saudi and Middle East oil as Saudi exports now make up 15% of China's oil imports from 19%. This also shows that president Trump's trade deals are working to help balance trade with China and remove the disadvantageous position the U.S. was placed in by three previous administrations.