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Wages remain stagnant, labor participation rate declines, and U-6 at 11.8%, as unemployment rate declines to 5.9% in U.S. labor market.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Dec. 13, 2016, that it would increase its benchmark short term interest rate by 0.25 percentage point, to between 0.50% and 0.75%. The increase will also be reflected in business and household borrowing costs. The Fed also announced its intention to make 0.75% percentage point increase in 2017, possibly in 3 quarter percentage point moves. The Fed's forecast is for the fed-funds rate to reach 2.1% at the end of 2018, and 2.9% at the end of 2019. The Fed's policy is based on a sense of strong labor market with unemployment falling, and says it is based on discussion at a 2 day meeting, and "in view of realized and expected labor-market conditions and inflation." This reflects a view that there is now not that much slack in the labor market, that further improvements could trigger higher inflation. Fed forecasts for inflation are for it to increase from 1.5% in 2016 to 1.9% in 2017 and to the target of 2% in 2018. The unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2016 is forecast to go to 4.5% in 2017 and remain at that level till 2019. Economic growth is forecast at a median annual rate of 1.9% in 2016, 2.1% in 2017, only a slight improvement from last forecast in Sept. 2016. Support for chairwoman Yellen's policy decision was unanimous. See the link on views of NYT's Binyamin Applebaum and Neil Irwin on how Fed rate policy and economic growth under the Trump administration is likely to play out, and Ian Talley's report on impact on exports with a stronger dollar in WSJ. These views also are in line with the Fed's forecasts and policy decision as they reflect the concerns of the Fed about inflation, and also reflect the Fed's view that growth will be close to 2% in 2017-2019, and not the 3-4% stated by Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Fed rate policies to keep inflation at about 2% tend to counter stimulus spending by the Trump administration and effect of tax cuts. The size of the stimulus and the tax cuts are also likely to be much smaller than stated because of Republican concerns about the deficit in the U.S. Congress, according to these views. The stronger dollar also has the paradoxical effect of making trade gains more difficult while increasing trade friction in tougher bargaining supported by Trump, making the higher growth targets harder to reach.   ...

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Orlando Patterson, a Professor of Sociology at Harvard, says Mr Obama is seen by inner city blacks as too remote from them and their lives to be a role model. And that he is more likely to influence the racial attitudes of middleclass blacks and younger white Americans. He sees constructive effort in policies for education, improved parenting in black families, and efforts to help disadvantaged white and minority families. But he does not see Obama in any way ending America's long ordeal with race.

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As the period of transition between administrations is a period when no action can be taken on the stimulus plan and 533,0000 jobs were lost in November, with the uncertainties facing the auto industry and more unemplyment expected as that industry donwsizes, and consumers overstretched, the Fed takes aggresssive steps. It reduces the target interest rate, an overnight bank lending rate called the federal funds rate, to between zero and one quarter percentage point. And it added that theat the Fed's policy will be to keep interest rates "exceptionally low " for some time. The 3 month Treasury bill rate, another borrowing rate has gone down to zero.

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Life expectancy was growing in the U.S. till 2010. In the three years 2015 to 2017 it declined each year. In 2014 the life expectancy in the U.S. was 78.9 years, declining to 78.6 years today. This is contrary to the trend in all G-7 countries where life expectancy is growing. Now it is seen as systemic- a factor common to all race, gender and ethnic groups. Part of this is a result of economic distress. People with less education are more affected and young people are also hit hard.

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Experts see strong growth in jobs in 2022. Employers added 431,000 jobs in March. This is the 11th straight month of job gains of over 400,000, the longest period of such growth since 1939. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, approaching the low unemployment rate of 3.5% in February 2020, just before the pandemic.

Low unemployment rate is boosting wages but not as much to keep up with inflation. The easing pandemic is also encouraging people to seek jobs. Many retirees are also coming back, and so are women. With 300,000 women joining the workforce in March 2022.

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How historically working class areas in Pennsylvania including Scranton vote in the midterms, and how Mr. Fetterman with his small town roots is able to attract such working class votes for his race against Republicans Mr. Oz, a TV talk host, is crucial to determining when and how working class families in America link up with Mr. Biden. This NYT report looks at Pennsylvania in late October 2022.

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The S.E.C. proposal for regulation of credit ratings agencies in the U.S.

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Friedman describes the achievements under two Obama initiatives- Race to the Top education initiative and the fuel efficiency for automobiles initiative.