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A final settlement approved by Judge Rhodes for Detroit to pay banks $85 million to terminate contracts called interest-rate swaps.

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Boris Johnson wins an 80 seat majority for the Conservatives in parliament in the 2019 election. He gets a mandate for a quick exit from the European Union by the end of January 2020, and billions of dollars in public spending on infrastructure, the NHS, and public services. He gets an unexpected 364 seats in parliament after winning the support of working class voters hurt by the financial crisis and by industrial decline. Working class voters in the north of England and the Midlands decided to trust Mr. Johnson. The Labour party won 203 seats, its lowest total since 1935.  The British pound surged to its highest level since May 2018, and domestic stocks surged with their best day since 2010. Part of the optimism stems from the size of the win that gives Johnson more flexibility at home and more leverage with the European Union to negotiate Brexit that works best for Britain. Working class areas that suffered for decades with loss of heavy industry, decaying infrastructure and poorer public services put their trust in Johnson's pledge to spend more to revive these areas. Johnson called his government "The People's Government" in his victory speech and promised to spend $131 billion on infrastructure, the National Health Service, schools, and public services. Johnson said in the speech that working class families may- "only have lent us your vote. I am humbled that you have put your trust in me, and that you have put your trust in us. And I and we will never take your support for granted." The other big event in this election is the election win in Scotland of the Scottish National party winning 80% of the seats and seeking a referendum on independence. Mr. Johnson has stated that he clearly opposes this. In Northern Ireland a majority of legislators were elected who favor unity with Ireland. This sets up a constitutional struggle that Mr. Johnson faces in his first elected term in office.   ...

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When even the NYT, or the host of CBS television Face the Nation does it poorly, how are independent voters, and voters leaning Democrat or Republican, or leaning not vote, to have a clear idea of policies?  This review of Trump statements about Harris statements on red meat, ICE, law enforcement, fails to get down to the policies she has stated at Wake Tech in North Carolina and in other places before this. It also does not address the Trump plan to end tax on Social Security which would lead to about $550 going to seniors but lead to a cut of 25% in Social Security in 2032, defunding Social Security and Medicare. Immigration- the first thing Harris would do as president is to sign the legislation written by Republicans Lankford, McConnell with the backing of the party and agreed to by president Biden that will in effect close the Border with Mexico and fix the asylum policy, not done in three decades. Cost of Living- Harris policy on price gouging is for taking the action that companies follow and play by the rule on pricing, so that they do not take unfair advantage of the public. It is not about passing a law or fixing prices. This has been done in Texas and in Kentucky, other states. Restrict rent to 5% increases and increase the supply of new houses by building 3 million new homes, $100 billion to be allocated for fixing housing supply shortages.   ...

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Pressed by tariffs from DJT China is trying to become technologically sufficient, yet this comes at a considerable cost, says this report in WSJ. Made in China 2025 was put out in 2014 when president Xi was beginning his plans for the Chinese economy. It is 2025 now and a look at the nation's investment plans show China putting $250 billion a year in advanced manufacturing sectors from automobiles to solar panels and AI, says Centre for Strategic and International Studies CSIS in Washington. This is giving China an edge but at the cost of using up valuable resources and some wasted spending at a time of stagnant government revenues. China's new production needs new markets with overcapacity such as in the electric automobile industry. This overcapacity comes at a cost when the US and other countries are restricting imports from China with new trade policies. During the DJT first term in 2016 China pulled back reference to make in China 2025 but this was temporary and China's 2021 Economic Plan puts top priority to be self sufficient in Science and Technology. Industrial support for EV's went from $15 billion in 2019 to $45 billion in 2023 (CSIS). 48% of 11 million new vehicles were EV's in 2024 with BYD and Geely the main ones of 100 brands. In shipbuilding $132 billion was invested in 2010-2018 taking China from 5% in 1999 to 48% of total manufacturing of shipbuilding in 2025 worldwide. The same is true for manufacturing aircraft and chemicals. ...

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Every year India Youth Day is observed on the 12th of January on the birthday of Swami Vivekananda. Vivekananda 1863-1902 preceded Mohandas Gandhi in the first period of the Indian struggle for Independence from the British Empire. The book Hind Swaraj by Gandhiji which set the blueprint for India's independence struggle was inspired by and followed in 1909 only a few years after Vivekananda's death in 1902. Vivekananda also inspired Indonesia's Sukarno in the struggle for independence from the Dutch Empire during the 1930's and 1940's. The population of India and Indonesia which represent the height of the ancient Vedic civilization of South Asia is in 2025 1722 million. It also encompasses China Japan Korea and Vietnam with a population of 1750 million when we consider India as the centre of Buddhist civilization. About 3.5 billion people with a common heritage in ancient Vedic and Buddhist civilization. Matched only by Christian civilization with 1.0 billion people in the Americas and 750 million in Europe. Combined this is two thirds of the world population. Under the British, Dutch and French Empires India was kept separate from cultural and religious contact with Indonesia, Vietnam, China and Japan. There is a convergence of culture and religion in Asia in the 21st century first between India and Indonesia and Vietnam, and second between India and Japan, Korea. That convergence will grow between India and China in the rest of the 21st century as ancient but modern civilizations with a common history. ...

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Women have one of three positions in senior management in the federal government compared to one of six in corporate management. Women make up 41% of management positions at the Government Accountability Office, a federal agency that has women friendly policies including family friendy culture, daycare site at the Washington headquarters, flexible relocation policy, telework policies, and advancing women to positions even as they balance their professional and personal lives such as needs of children. It is not necessary to work 70-80 hours a week to advance to senior positions as in law firms. Susan Poling is a senior executive supervising 156 lawyers, and says in the beginning she was able to work part time to spend more time with her son and still have great things to do and be given higher responsibilities.

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Attorneys in al 50 states are investigating foreclosures. This will increase the uncertainty for banks in addition to other short term losses.

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After cellphone sales crumble by dropping 50% in the holiday season quarter compared to ayear ago quarter, Motorola cuts 4000 more positions.

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Bjorn Lomborg of the Copenhagen Consensus Center says about the decision by the Obama adminisration to stop contributing to World Bank financed coal power plants- including one in South Africa- does not take into account the simple fact that 1.2 billion people living in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia have no access to electricity. In the sub-Saharan region of Africa (excluding S. Africa) the entire electricity generating capacity is about 28 gigawatts, or about the same as Arizona with a population of about 9 million compared to 860 million in the region. He says China was able to lift 680 million people out of poverty with urbanization and industry powered by coal. There is no alternative to low cost fossil fuels for the poorer regions of the earth. This is why the International Energy Agency esimates fossil fuel generated energy to remain about the same percentage in 2035 as it is today- 81%. Shale based naural gas can make a difference for air pollution and China is begining to make the shift away from coal- for sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, this goal will take time. ...

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Jan Corzine, Governor of New Jersey has talked to governors from the states of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, New York, and Massachusetts about how best to execute an effective economic recovery stimulus program with the federal government. Here are the ideas they have come up with. The stimulus should cover five areas, infrastructure, countercyclical programs, housing, education, and middle class tax cuts. The principle to keep in mind is to take advantage of the strengths of the federal government and of the state and local governments. Infrastructure investment should be intelligent ones to modernize the capabilities of the country for the next phase of development and competition in the global economy and in making far reaching changes in transportation and energy for sustainable development in a global economy. A key point of Corzine's here is that safety net social programs will need to be shored up or the stimulus effects will be lost. Over the 2 years 2009 and 2010 he suugests the federal government boost its countercyclical spending by at least $250 billion. And it should do this by increasing the federal medical assistance percentages, federal share of Medicaid costs and other health care related programs such as reimbursement to hospitals for treating the uninsured, Temporary Asistance for Needy families, and child care grants. He proposes doubling the federal funding of unemployment trust funds under the Unemployment Insurance Modernization Act, with incentives to cover vulnerable low-wage and part-time workers who are often denied unemployment benefits. Corzine emphasizes this. That even if the Obama administration puts large sums into infrastructure spending, cutbacks in state and local safety net programs would cancel out much of the effect of the stimulus. The reason is simple while the federal government is adding to jobs on one hand, the states without the money would be cutting back jobs and services. This point will be critical in making the stimulus work. The other point Corzine appears to emphasize by quoting Roosevelt at Oglethorpe University in 1932, is that bold experimientation not clinging to rooftops in the flood, will be needed....

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Over 1 million people turn out across France in protests against pension reform that takes the retirement age from 62 to 64 years. Women feel more discriminated against in this reform. The prevalent age discrimination bias in France makes it harder to find jobs after 50 years, even harder after 60 years. There is a perception that the reform is not the first priority so soon after a pandemic with its after effects, and that other changes including age discrimination and the way it affects women need to be tackled before pension reform. The government lacks an overall majority, the eight unions are united in protests and possible strikes, creating a situation in which French president Macron needs to rethink his whole approach on addressing pension reform- when tacking the cost of living crisis and climate change, energy transition, are other priorities that need more attention at this time.

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TSMC founder claims American cost of chip manufacturing is an "exercize in futility," because American costs are 50% higher than in Taiwan. This is laissez faire economic theory at work, governments overseas subsidize industries. Laissez faire economic theory that became popular with the Reagan administration means the US cannot compete by supporting its own industry in advanced technologies.  Government of Taiwan covers costs at its Taiwan manufacturing plants through subsidies some of them hidden in cost calculations. As the Oregonian reports here Intel and other US and European manufacturing companies are already competing with TSMC, and the Biden administration now plans to support American chip manufacturing- to make America a leader in chip manufacturing that it was when and obscure student from Taiwan received his engineering degrees from MIT followed by training for two decades at Texas Instruments and Reagan's misguided economic theories allowed American technologies and manufacturing to be shipped overseas. ...

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 WSJ interviews Burton Malkiel 50 years after Malkiel published "A Random Walk on Wall Street," putting forward the efficient market hypothesis. That hypothesis he says is till more true than ever, that the market senses information and reflects what that information says in the stock price. This means one would do better than active investors by investing in an index that reflected the broader stock market with a wide ranging basket of stocks that reflected it. By 1974 Vanguard's Bogle started the first index fund for passive investing. It did not gain support till 2 decades later, yet today half of all US investing is in index funds. Malkiel supports the index fund investment and says equities play an important role even in retirement, and says the next decade will give returns closer to 5-6% for equities. He says the important thing is not fancy shots just hitting the ball back, not making mistakes. 

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A tipping point happens when a small push can create a large outcome. Energy experts say we are at tipping points for renewable energy because cost of renewables solar and wind plants is now lower than fossil fuel new plants. Another tipping point is when new renewable energy plants have less cost than old fossil fuel plants. Another tipping point is when storage and production of renewables cost less than new fossil fuel plants. The first is already here and the second and third points are being reached in 2023 and 2024. Another tipping point is the confidence point and this is when it is no longer necessary to use fossil fuels because the costs are just too high. Once this is reached renewables are the first choice around the world. The world is now reaching this confidence point. Germany's Energy and Economy Minister Habeck says Germany will be 80% on renewable energy by 2030.

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The trade agreement with Australia starts a process of taking India's exports far beyond the current figure of $400 billion and creating the jobs that come with it. It will double bilateral trade over 5 years to take it to $50 billion. This also shows the wisdom of India not joining the Comprehensive Economic Partnership pushed by president Obama.

The natural ties within the English speaking peoples and the common historical ties within the Commonwealth of Nations that include Australia, Canada, Britain, the Gulf Nations, and South East Asia provide a natural trade and economic region for India.  Next planned are trade agreements with Canada and Britain, and an effort to bring all the six nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council into and Economic Partnership with India, An agreement was also signed with the United Arab Emirates. Very important is a trade agreement with Germany and the European Union for close economic integration with Europe.

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About 85% of people in Portugal a country of 10 million people are fully vaccinated in October 2021, highest in Europe. Strict precautions for prevention such as social distancing and mask remained in place after the surge in January 2021 which led to deaths at a rate that was three times the peak rate in the US.

On October 1, 2021 the restrictions such as 30% limit on filling soccer stadiums were lifted. For the Benefica vs Bayern Munich soccer game restrictions were lifted leading to filled stadiums with vaccination pass mandatory. As people return to indoors in winter this could still result in increase in cases. Because Portugal depends on tourism and stadiums are filled to capacity there is the risk of a smaller surge. Cruise ships are back in Portuguese ports and tourists,are back in large numbers. Soccer fans, fill subways, leading to new concern about a limited spread of the coronavirus.

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Worldwide coronavirus vaccine development and distribution is covered in the The guardian. There are surprising results in a 2019 Lancet study about how strongly people in each country think vaccines are safe. Only 17% of people in Japan and Lithuania think vaccines are safe. Most of Eastern Europe, some western European countries, Russia and China are shown as countries where about half of the people have doubts about the safety compared to 87% in Bangladesh and Uganda. In India and most of Africa people think vaccines are safe says this report showing the Lancet study results in a graphic.

Vaccines once developed will require cold storage for distribution and adminstering the vaccine. Some vaccines may require ultra cold storage of -60 degrees  or -80 degrees centigrade which may be hard to find in many countries. Most of the cold storage containers available have already been acquired by countries.

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Key points from the prime minister's Independence Day speech on August 15, 2021, as reported in The Times of India. 

The prime minister concluded by saying that 25 years from now on the 100th anniversary in 2047 the aspirations of today will be presented as accomplishments by the then prime minister. He covered many topics relating to goals for India in the next 25 years, from the environment, small farmers, and infrastructure to hydrogen and renewable energy. The thread running through the entire speech was the aspirations of the Indian people, and of Indian youth, that are irreversibly set and that nothing could stop the Indian people from achieving these aspirations with the goals set high for the first time in 50 years. The impossible had to become the reality with hard work and calm, good humored resolve, not affected by the difficulties on the way.

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US president Biden announces a plan that makes it mandatory for all employers with more than 100 employees to require their workers to be vaccinated. The Labor Department's Occupational Safety and Health Administration will issue an emergency temporary standard for implementing the new rule. This will cover 80 million private sector employees. Businesses that fail to meet the standard will face fines of up to $14,000 per violation. Employers must also give workers paid time off to get vaccinated or recover from any side effects.

Federal government workers and contractors also must meet the new requirement or face regular testing. In all 100 million workers or two thirds of American workers will be covered. 

To meet testing needs the Biden administration is procuring $2 billion in rapid point of care and over the counter at home Covid tests, using the Defense Production Act for accelerated production.

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Lengthy conversations between Scholz, Macron and Putin for over 80 minutes on Saturday last week in which German and French leaders tell Russia that it is getting deeper and deeper into a situation that is bad for Russia. At the same time Scholz and his chief of staff Schmidt emphasize that Russia should not be winning the war. With Russian gains using artillery in the east the situation is again moving in a direction where additional US military assistance would be needed for Ukraine to defend itself. The WSJ Editorial Board says today that such additional assistance should be given to Ukraine.

Germany and France see a shortening of the war as a way to reduce the impact of a sharp recession. Macron and Scholz are making an effort to get Russia to talk directly with Ukraine to reach a settlement to end the war. 

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The Manhattan business district of New York City has office occupancy rate of only 50%, leaving half the office space unused and vacant. Only 9% of Manhattan office employees are in the office 5 days a week, 37% 3 days a week, says this report in WSJ. The business district is far from recovery. New York Mayor Eric Adams and Governor Kathy Hochul have convened a group of civic leaders to draft a158 page report called- New New York Panel. The New York Panel suggests turning some of the business space into parks and promenades for pedestrians to make the city attractive and the space livable with green areas. A new director of public realm would report to the mayor. New York City has suffered much from the pandemic. The old midtown and the old city is no longer the kind of attractive livable green space that people want to live in or get to.

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In the past no confidence motions against president Macron's government put forward by a group of left parties failed by 50 votes. Today's no confidence motion by the left parties led by Mr. Melenchon failed by just 7 votes. The vote for a separate no confidence motion of right parties led by Marine Le Pen failed by a wide margin. 19 members of the centrist Les Republicains with 61 members in the National Assembly voted against Macron's government. This means the government will find it harder to govern. A survey by French polling firm Elabe shows 65% of French people polled support the strikes against the pension overhaul. For Mr. Melenchon's coalition of parties this means it is drawing support from centrists in an effort to form the next government that addresses the issues of workers and families in the way president Biden is doing in the US.

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Should inflation be set at 2% or 3-4%? This decision affects jobs and zero interest rates hurt what retirees earn on savings.  Krugman says Americans were better off during the period under presidents including Kennedy-LBJ, Reagan right up to 2008 when interest rates were between 5-8%, and inflation of 4% was considered to be acceptable. Consider that about 90% of American retirees have savings of less than $100,000, and 50% have no savings at all after two decades of near zero interest rates. Krugman points out that Fed 2% inflation targeting is a mistake because the research is wrong and inflation of 2% gets you to near zero interest rates a third of the time, not 5% of the time as US Fed research incorrectly shows. Financial crises such as 2009 from lack of regulation of financial institutions and laissez faire policy led to zero interest rates that hurt average Americans.

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Bidenomics and how it works for America- you don't have to have a college degree and two thirds of the workforce doesn't have one, you don't have to move and most people can't move to costly housing locations like California or New York. America can build here at home in chips, aviation and advanced technologies in scale and discovery that it has in its heritage. And you don't have to move when factories can go up in all parts of America, rural areas, small towns, and in neglected factory towns from a different era of the 50's and 60's. This is what Biden is doing with trillions of dollars in spending with the help of some Republicans sharing his vision for American Renewal. Not just talk- just substance, results. And cost of living- inflation cut in half from 2022 to 4%.

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As climate changes the World Bank reports that 75% of India's urban populations, about 380 million people, work in jobs exposed to extreme heat, life threatening heat.This is the informal workforce that generates 50% of GDP, that works as street vendors, construction or factory workers, house help, auto rickshaw drivers, street cleaners, delivery people and guards. More people will be added- over 400 million by 2050 as India urbanizes further. The Guardian looks at the situation in Bengaluru that in year 2000 was still cool and leafy except for summer that was for for a few months March to May with temperatures peaking at 34 degrees centigrade. Now the summer heat happens earlier 34 degrees C. by February and 38 degrees C. by May. Then there is the heat island effect as the city  built from asphalt cement and metal heats up during the day and heats the atmosphere at night.