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The language and tone of the leaders says something about what is likely to be the outcome of the G20 summit. Its a first for significant participation, as countries as diverse as Russia, China, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and the Netherlands are represented. The credible positions of both sides, the US, UK and Japan, and the European side of France, Germany and the Czech Republic, well presented, provide for some serious discussion and negotiations. France's Sarkozy and Germany's Merkel want to see a global regulator that would reach inside the borders of the US with stricter regulation. Sarkozy calls this "nonnegotiable." And he said that he would reject an agreement that puts off stringent new regulations on banks, tax havens, and hedge funds. He said "the compromise has to come from all countries around the world." US President Obama said that if there is going to be renewed growth it can't just be the US as the engine, everybody is going to have to pick up the pace," at the same time saying that the US had to be concerned about its own deficits. The fact is that the US stimulus will mostly help a severely impacted domestic economy recover with social safey net payments to local and state governments and unemployment insurance, as well as targeted investments in infrastructure, education, energy and health care. It will not mean anywhere near the kinds of imports the US made from other countries, especially China. And Obama made that clear when he said the US will never return to that situation, where the US had become a "voracious consumer market." For the Germans the major market for their middle companies is China, and China has its own stimulus spending on infrastructure spending, which should provide for continued imports of machinery from Germany at a much lower level. Thus Germany and France see a strong tendency to call the source of the crisis and repeat that call till the US listens, and refer to the failure of free market capitalism in its unregulated form. And to insist on fixing it through a global regulator with strict and systemwide rules. So you hear this in Merkel's words, "the foundation for this finacial architecture must be laid now, that is why we seem to be so tough." While the vivacious Sarkozy talks of compromise, and a US gesture in regulation in return for Franc's gesture of joining NATO, the mild mannered Merkel is clear and focussed about her concern. She rejects the idea of linking stimulus spending demands of the Anglo-Americans with the Franco-German demands for global systemwide regulation. "This is not a bargaining chip," she says. The media may mistakenly report lack of consensus as a failure of the summit. But in the long run in the presence of good positions on both sides, it could lead to some tough negotiations even if continued at another meeting. And result in something serious, credible and lasting in its impact, rather than something that was easy and did not in Andy Grove's useful words involve "constructive confrontation." ...

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Questions about how Mr Geithner has handled his job at the New York Fed and at Treasury during the bailouts of financial firms. Were there close relationships with bankers, hedge fund managers, and others that compromised the Fed's ability to regulate the financial industry? Why was Geithner advocating loosening standards for the reserves financial institutions have to hold to insure against potential future losses, as late as 2007? Inherent in the design of the job of New York Fed President was a conflict of interest, as the institution is supposed to be a watchdog over the financial industry, but the President of the NY Fed reports to a board that is comprised of the heads of banks and financial instituitons. These financial leaders also participate in the selection of the new President. Geithner was a quick learner and a listener, who asked questions, but he was an outsider coming from work at AID, the IMF and Treasury. He is described by one bank executive Sanford Weill as "a baby face," and lacked experience in dealing with the financial industry. He was brought in by Rubin and Summers, two mentors at Treasury. These two had close ties to the financial industry, and did not question practices of overleveraging and risk taking in the financial industry. Was it too much to ask of Geithner, under the circumstances, that he would rock the boat and ask the tough questions about risk and leveraging. On the other hand did he miss things completely when he was asking for even looser capital standards for banks in 2007, less than a year before the crisis hit, which were never adopted. And was he too close to the financial industry and aggressive in the wrong sort of way when advocating in a meeting as President of the New York Fed, that the government back up all the debt in the financial system. Did he too casually overlook the conditions that could easily be put in place for the government to be able to recover some of the money put into the bailouts. And was he too close to Goldman Sachs, that he brought Goldman in for advice in the AIG bailout, even though there were conflicts of interest and money that would never be recovered from the $182 billion bailout of AIG, some of which went to banks including Goldman. If Geithner had seen some of the problems in risk taking why had he not supported FDIC's Bair in her opposing view for capital reserves, and government conditions on bailouts that enabled some recovery of capital put into failing financial institutions. And did he get too close to Citi, that at one point Sanford Weill tried to bring him in as CEO even when he was already President of the New York Fed. Does it go to show that -the very idea that this was even possible- the design of the New York Fed with the President reporting to the Board of the very same bank presidents that he was supposed keep in check, makes for an incomprehensible position of regulation at odds with the structure of reporting and selection....

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German chancellor Anglea Merkel selected her chief economic advisor, Jens Weidmann to head the Bundesbank, the German central bank. Weidmann replaces Axel Weber. Merkel prefers the quieter demeanor of Weidmann to the outspoken behaviour of Weber. Weber was Weidmann's tutor at the university, and at 42 is the youngest Bundesbank president. He headed the monetary analysis department at the Bundesbank and did a stint at the IMF, before joining Merkel's circle of close advisors. Weidman has a sense for markets and politics, and a close understanding of Merkel's policies. This would help Merkel as Germany sets the eurozone on a new path of reforms to build a firm foundation for the euro.

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A report from Roubini Global Economics says state and local government financial problems are not of a systemic nature and should not affect the U.S. financial system. The report sees defaults as isolated events. Still it says reforms will be needed only some of which have been made, and preventing a crisis will require real austerity. The report predicts $100 billion in muni-bond defaults over 5 years.

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How Martin Feldstein weighs the risks of inflation and of moral hazards in helping those who fueled the subprime crisis with their mistakes with the risks of a sharp downturn, and what thoughts he has on the issue of lowering rates just as the Bernbanke Fed prepares for its policy meeting September 18, 2007. He looks for a cut starting from the current 5.25% to 4.25% or even less depending on the situation as it evolves. Feldstein gives a measure for household wealth that will be lost and what will be lost in consumer spending as a result. His measure is for a 20% cumulative fall in house prices that would reduce household wealth by $4 trillion which would impact consumer spending by about $200 billion, thats about 5% consumers would spend more if they had that $4 trillion. This works out to about 1.5% of GDP which he suggests would tip the US economy into a recession. This is not counting the loss of access to spendable cash that the consumer has used for the last decade in terms of mortgage equity withdrawals which totaled $9 trillion this last decade and financed a lot of the sustained consumer spending, these mortgage equity withdrawals to finance spending would decline significantly in the new conditions. In addition with more defaults and falling prices in a vicious circle the process could accelerate quickly, further impairing the portfolios of banks and financial institutions causing some to collapse. ...

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After an emergency cabinet meeting and a vote in the Spain's Senate prime minister Rajoy imposed direct rule on Catalonia, dismissing the government of Mr. Puigdemont in Catalonia. He set local elections in Catalonia for Dec. 21. Rajoy was responding to a vote in the Catalan parliament with 70 in favor, 10 against and the rest abstaining, in favor of independence. As the BBC points out Catalonia has 16% of Spain's population and generates 25% of exports, 20% of foreign investment, leading to a feeling among Catalan people that they are sending resources to other parts of Spain. The vote was still far short of the large majority that would show Catalans overwhelmingly support Mr Puigdemont's move for independence. As the reality of the consequences of such a move- when the EU and other parts of Spain have shown little support -begin to be felt it is possible that new elections could bring a result like that in Scotland where the Scottish Nationalist party lost ground to the Conservative party in the recent British parliamentary election. It is significant that the BBC cites a recent poll which shows 41% of Catalans favor independence, 49% opposed. Particularly now that Catalans may have time to consider carefully the difference between redressing a grievance and making a complete break into an uncertain future outside the European Union. Also relevant is that Catalonia enjoys a high degree of autonomy, and that other parts of Spain including Mr. Rajoy's home region of Galicia also suffered under the Franco dictatorship. Even the Basque region has come to terms with the past from the period under Franco and has opted to be part of Spain. ...

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Cuts in Medicare payments for drugs is feared by the pharmaceutical industry, as Democrats take control of Congress.

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Krugman says there is cause for concern from May's U.S. jobs report of only 38,000 jobs added- low even with Verizon strike jobs added back in- compared to the 200,000 a month average since Jan 2013. One cannot read too much into one months report, yet the political uncertainty in a election year adds to the problem. The low interest rates near zero offering little possibility for rate cuts, make it difficult to come up with a policy response. Under a Clinton administration the infrastructure spending option would face Republican resistance.  It is not clear how a Trump administration would respond. Krugman says the jobs figure reflects a stronger dollar- a result partly of the Fed's plan to raise rates- that is hurting U.S. exports.

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Fisher and Taub of the NYT look at the populist politics in Europe and the U.S. following the French election first round. Trump won in the U.S. with the deep polarization of politics in the U.S.- leading to the Republican Party to decide to support him to avoid the result of four more years of an administration led by Democrats, and with the support of discontented voters in midwestern states with falling living standards. The situation in Europe is different as the mainstream parties have united in the past to block populist politicians with negative messages on immigration and an open economy. This happened in the Dutch election, by the co-opting of the nationalist message of populist politicians by mainstream parties and mainstream politicians, and is likely to continue in the French and German elections in 2017. Fisher and Taub point to another development that is happening- shifting the debate to ethnonationalism vs. open economies, which has happened with Brexit and the UK Independence Party. They cite the 2015 British elections in which UKIP won 13 percent of the vote, as having influenced prime minister Cameron to call for a referendum on Brexit, in a effort to revive the fortunes of the Conservative Party. In the end this resulted in the 52 percent vote supporting Brexit.  Another way of looking at the populist movement is that with Trump it called attention to trade and the way working class Americans were being marginalized especially in the industrial midwest. With this problem being addressed in a Trump administration and a reviving economy, the mainstream parties have an opportunity to reassert themselves. In Europe the AfD called attention to immigration issues, and the Merkel coalition government of CDU and SPD by making changes such as the deal with Turkey, and returning economic refugees, is able to assert the role of mainstream parties. In Britain the situation could be a result of a brash decision by a Conservative prime minister Cameron, in making a bad miscalculation, that has put Britain on a course that is likely not in its best interest. The Brexit referendum yes vote galvanized opinion by showing an endless stream of refugees in their advertising- a development following the opening of borders by Germany and Austria to address the plight of Syrian war refugees. That situation has passed and is unlikely to happen again as both the SPD and CDU parties in Germany have pointed out that this was a one time situation that they responded to following the exodus from Keleti rail station in Hungary under special circumstances. With this kind of perspective populist politics can be seen as reflecting other voices in a democracy, that are heard and responded to, yet keeping the sense of balance and openness necessary in today's global economy and societies. This is also the perception of Germany's outgoing popular president Gauck in his final address, pointing to the need to listen to other voices in a democracy, and the need for openness in a democracy, as well as democracies always in the process of Becoming and evolving to adapt to new situations in economy, society, and politics.     ...

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Former prime minister Nawaz Sharif faces a trial on corruption charges in Pakistan in 2018, just prior to new elections. The military and the judiciary both support the trial which involves payments for 4 upscale neighborhood London apartments owned by Sharif. 

Mr. Sharif's party leads in polls with about 36% support, higher than the next leading party Tehreek which has 24% support and is led by Imran Khan a former cricketer. The Pakistan People's Party of the Bhutto family comes in third. The result of this could be a weaker coalition government. The Supreme Court has banned Sharif for life from holding political office. Pakistan has seen governments toppled and military rule for half of its 70 years since independence. The rivalry with India and the role of the military has affected political institutions and democracy in Pakistan making peace with India difficult to achieve for any elected government.

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The terms of the debt restructuring deal with the bond swap in Greece become clear on March 9, 2012. In the deal with private bondholders -using collective action clauses to force remaining bondholders into the deal- about 96% of the 206 billion euros of Greece's bonds will be exchanged. Private bondholders held out throughout most of 2011, delaying the inevitable as Greece's economic situation became increasingly hopeless. This created a logjam with the German government, which insisted on serious private sector participation and bondholder haircut as the cost of poor lending decisions of the French, German and other European banks that made loans to Greece out of proportion of the ability of Greece to payback loans. Charles Dallara of the Institute of International Finance, negotiating for European banks, offered a 10% average loss on the bonds in July 2009. It was not until German Chancellor Merkel told Dallara at a late night meeting on October 27, 2011: "this is my last offer," for a 50% loss on the face value of the bonds, was agreement reached. The Greek debt swap that now takes place will give private bondholders a loss of 53.5% from the face value of 200 billion euros of bonds that they hold. The new Greek bonds issued in place of the old bonds include short-term bonds issued by the eurozone rescue fund at 15% of the face value of the old bonds, and a series of Greek bonds with maturity ranging from 11-30 years valued at 31.5% of the face value of old bonds. That even this 53.5% bondholder loss will not be adequate, as Greece's economy looks irretrievably damaged as it spirals downwards, is shown by the value of these bonds already trading in a hypothetical "gray market." The new 30 year bond is quoted at 17 cents and the 11 year bond at 22 cents. The questions remain about the stalling by the banks in taking the losses earlier- was this the wisest move considering the losses beyond Greece as the eurozone economy as a whole has suffered from the prolonged negotiations stretching through 2011, lurching from one crisis to the next? Even if the stalling was designed to give time for banks to repair their balance sheets, was this the best strategy, considering the damage inflicted on European economic growth. John Taylor of Stanford points out that the European banks delayed the unavoidable serious debt restructuring for too long, when insolvency was the real issue not illiquidity, and exaggerated the effect of contagion from the beginning- in John Taylor, WSJ, 2/22/2012, A Better Grecian Bailout. And John Cochrane of the University of Chicago, points out that French and German governments if they bailout French and German banks should do so openly and frankly rather than cover this up as bailouts of countries, because this would lead to serious questions about the poor lending decisions of the European banks and government supervision of the banks- in Cochrane, WSJ, 12/2/2010, 'Contagion' and other Euro Myths. As early as Feb. 2010, Cochrane was suggesting the forced exchange of new bonds with long debt maturities for exisiting bonds with short debt maturities, as short term debt was the major issue here. ...

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The way Mr. Partovi's idea of mixing keyword search with ads met with resistance at Microsoft, after Microsoft spent $265 million to acquire his company LinkExchage. Some of Partovi's bosses warmed to his idea of auctioning keywords but their eyes were glued to the prospects of display banner ads and did not think much of the search and ads combined together, like searching for a term and seeing the vendors of all kinds of related services who pay a fee every time someone clicks on their name. Bosses changed and the Keywords group was shifted to other parts of the Microsoft business ending up in software. A small trial was made but price of auctioning keywords was not set appropriately. Partovi's insistence was seen as resistance to the ordered way of doing things at Microsoft, and Ballmer in 2003 talked about "discordant and dissident directions" in the company, tendencies which he derided. Partovi's passion was seen as insubordination and finally in May 2000 with $1 million in revenue from Keywords comparing poorly with Microsoft's other online ad revenue, Keywords was shutdown. Partovi left Microsoft in July 2000. He shopped his idea around. Yahoo said it did not fit in with its plans, later buying Overture for $1.8 billion in summer 2003. Google talked to Partovi but declined, instead quietly building its own service. And Google launched its own service AdWords combining search and ads in October 2000. It was under pressure to come up with arevenue generating method.By 2002 Google was stealing advertisers from Goto.com that had pioneered the business of ads and search but lacked the advantage of having its own search engine. Microsoft also faced the same problem. In May 2002 AOL dropped Goto.com and teamed up with Google for paid search. By late 2002 Microsoft executive Yusuf Mehdi was visiting Goto.com and launched an effort to buy Overture the new name for Goto.com. But when in Spring 2003 Mehdi pitched buying Overture for $1 billion to Gates and Ballmer, both tore into the proposal saying that they could do it for less than the $1-2 billion price tag by doing it inhouse. By this time Google was already the dominant company in search ads and Overture was losing out. But even with hundreds of programmers Microsoft did not get its search engine ready till late 2004 and the search ad system in May 2006, about 3 years from the meeting with Mehdi. The resistance of founders to development of new products, is seen at HP for the personal computer which was later embraced, and at Honda where a new kind of engine had to be developed secretly without Soichiro Honda's knowledge. In both cases the product was developed successfully after initial resistance, but in the case of Microsoft the new ideas and people may have been smothered and development done to Microsoft's founders own inclinations for order, and treated the same way as its other products till it was too late. A factor not present to the same degree in HP and Honda's situation was the speed with which the internet developed and search engines like Google developed. So that in 8 years since its launch Google is firmly entrenched, and has 73% of search ad spending, with Yahoo at 13.3% and Microsoft a distant third. Google generated $5 billion in profits from this in 2008. By 2009 search ad spending is estimated to reach $12.3 billion....

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The Wyeth vs Levine ruling by the Supreme Court.

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Solyndra Inc. and what went wrong. Solyndra filed for bankruptcy in Sept. 2011, after investments of private and government capital of over a billion dollars. Of this $535 million was a loan backed by the U.S. Department of Energy, leaving taxpayers with large losses. When emails were being exchanged between Vice President Biden's advisor and OMB staffers on August 31, 2009, according to the Washington Post, Solyndra was already in trouble. OMB pleaded for more time to do due diligence and analysis of the company. A $535 million loan was approved just when the economics behind Solyndra's cylinder coated solar materials were being made obsolete by the existing technology of polysilicon cells laid out on a flat panel. At Solyndra's inception in 2005 the cylinder based technology held promise, as the polysilicon cells technology relied on polysilicon material which was costly to make. In 2009 China was investing heavily in the polysilicon technology and bringing prices down to where the material cost was coming down quickly-down as much as 80%. By the end of 2009, it cost $4.00 per watt to produce Solyndra's product, while the competing Chinese polysilicon product cost $1.00 per watt- today this is down to 75 cents for the polysilicon product. The Solyndra product was harder to manufacture and had more defective material that had to be discarded. It is in the midst of these sea changes in technology, costs, and the economics of the project, that the government pushed for and OMB approved the Solyndra loan of $535 million to build a new factory that could produce 500 megawatts. In 2010 the economics worked as it would be expected, leading to Solyndra sales of 65 megawatts. The original factory had a capacity with improvements of 100 megawatts. Solyndra lost $172 million in 2009 on revenue of $100 million. Private investors attitude to their investment changed in 2009. The Wall Street Journal quotes one investor who saw the government loan followed by an IPO as a way to exit and cash out. A press release by Solyndra in July 2009, stated the company had a contractual backlog of $2 billion, even as the economics of the Solyndra product were collapsing. Yet these orders were not firm orders but framework agreements. In Dec. 2009 the lead underwriters, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, made an initial filing for an IPO, which was cancelled by the board 6 months later when the new factory had to be closed. The private investors interests and the governments interests had already diverged by the time of the email pushing for the $535 U.S. government loan from McSweeney, Biden's domestic policy advisor, to the senior OMB staffer, cited in the Washington Post, Stephens and Leonnig, 9/14/2011. OMB and the White House staffers failed to see this and the bankruptcy outcome that seemed highly probable in August 2009, based on the economics and competitive technology and pricing. This does prove the often cited comment that the government is not good at choosing winners and losers when handing out money. It goes beond this to show the whole process of due diligence failing at agencies such as the Energy Department and the Office of Management and the Budget, where one would think technically qualified staffers could catch the problems and risks of a project that were so apparent. ...

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Ramon Fernandez is the head of the Treasury in France's Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Industry. He manages the work done behind the scenes in the eurozone crisis- helping France's finance minister Baroin, French president Sarkozy, Xavier Musca, the presidents chief of staff, and working with his German counterpart Jorg Asmussen. He is self-effacing and says he does what he has to do. His view on the euro is that it will be there ten years from now and stronger.

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Journalists of the Economist magazine describe the EU's problems and the British perspective on the issues facing the European Union.

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Consumer prices rose 0.4% in June 2013, in early signs that the policies of the Abe administration against deflation are working.

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Concern about stimulus spending for infrastructure. Are the best projects being funded? Are some projects that are shovel ready but not the ones we should be doing first going to get done before other essential projects. The lack of acoherent plan for rebuilding the nation's crumbling infrastrure of roads, bridges and highways. Martin Feldstein says that this recession will last longer than others, so the stimulus spending even if slow will show its impact in 2010 and 2011.

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Prof. Calomiris of Columbia University, says the U.S. Federal Reserve should increase the cash reserve requirement for U.S. banks to prevent a surge in inflation. He points out that excesss reserves at banks stand at about $1.5 trillion. He suggests the Fed should take early action to prevent a jump in lending and credit creation- a pattern seen in the past after several years of dampened credit and lending.