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France and Britain are at loggerheads over fishing rights in UK waters. UK will now have 4 Navy patrol ships protect its fishing waters in the event of a no deal Brexit. French and other EU fishermen get 60% of the fish taken from UK waters. UK exclusive economic zone extends 200 miles from the shore. Conservative ministers have doubled the total fleet of patrol ships from four to eight. During patrol in extreme cases a EU boat can be impounded and taken to the nearest EU port, otherwise it could be boarded and inspected.

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This report in the NYT looks at median household checking account balances of households in the lower classes, middle classes and upper income groups as they changed during the pandemic. The deep plunges are seen in the graph for the lower classes making below $30,000 and a jump of as much as 100% after every effort by the government to send in pandemic aid money. The income groups making over $70,000 also benefited from the government aid money by as much as 40%. Six months after the aid the household checking balances show sharp declines.

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Contrary to a lot of what is written Mr. Bolsonaro has regained popularity in Brazil with a new poll showing him with an approval rating of 37% (Datafolho), and a sharp drop in disapproval ratings. Bolsanaro has pushed for keeping lockdowns to a minimum and reopening the economy. Brazil has a large informal economy making it very difficult for people  in lower income situations dependent on work to survive. The aid of 600 reals a month ($110 a month) for the coronavirus relief is making him popular with aid recipients and the poor. 

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Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) who seeks deeper spending cuts, Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) who sees Medicaid co pay for able bodied at 100% of federal poverty level as a "sick tax," Lisa Murkowski who differs on taxing providers, and other Congressmen and Women in the Republican party are opposing the new tax cut package of president Trump. Senator Rand Paul (R- Kentucky opposes the raising of the debt ceiling, and is also opposed.

Most of the main Medicaid cuts come after 2029 after Trump no longer is president, so that Republicans who want to see the shrinking of the Medicaid program so it meets only needs of the most needy, want to see faster cuts while Trump is president. And there are other Republicans in Congress who face tight elections and see big risks of losing their seats.

 

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European banks borrowed 529 billion euros from the ECB in Feb. 2012 at interest rate of 1% for three years.This follows the lending by the ECB of 489 billion euros to European banks in December 2011. The total lending now exceeds $1 trillion under the European Central Bank's Long Term Financing Operation. It is designed to inject additional liquidity into the European banking system and shore up confidence in the economy. This time 800 banks applied for loans compared to the 523 banks in December. The actual amount of money going to banks is about 520 billion euros as many banks moved money from shorter term ECB loans to the three year loans under the Long Term Refinancing Operation. The operation helped bring down the borrowing rates on Italian and Spanish bonds- the rate on Italian 10 year bonds is down to 5.2% as of Feb. 28, 2012. Spanish and Italian banks were able to borrow at 1% from the ECB and buy Italian and Spanish bonds paying 5%. Intessa Sanpaolo bank in Italy doubled its borrowing to 24 billion euros. Smaller banks, including banks in Germany, participated in the February 2012 ECB lending, moving the number of banks up to 800 this time. VW's financing arm also borrowed under this operation so that it could provide credit to customers....

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Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Ali Sabry is interviewed by The Hindu. Ali Sabry says he is "very, very confident" about the Adani Group's investments in Sri Lanka's renewable energy potential, and any drop in Adani stock value is not affecting the projects. Sabry says the Adani Group is already investing in its projects, which include the $700 million Colombo West Container Port Project. He met with India's Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar in New Delhi at the Raisina Dialogue Conference. He was asked about his role as Foreign Minister after working as Finance Minister.  "It is still a mix of both, as I still have to carry out some of the responsibilities in debt restructuring and economic diplomacy, because the President is the finance minister, and naturally he cannot travel as often as we would like." "We are not out of the woods but stabilized right now, and what we are looking at next is recovery, for which we need investment. So right now, what we are interested in with India is how to collaborate and how to integrate with the Indian economy, particularly with South India, in terms of investment, people to people connection, more tourists coming in. So that's the kind of thing it is it's a win win situation for all." ...

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The Times concludes that neither Bolsonaro or Lula have the policies needed to put Brazil on the development and growth track. Both fell short of the 50% needed in the first round of elections. This election has been hotly contested in Minas Gerais and other states with the public evenly divided.

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Wind and solar energy are competitive without subsidies vs fossil fuels says IEA. A report in the Scientific American says wind and solar do not need subsidies to be competitive with fossil fuels. IEA shows wind and solar costs are about 50-60% of fossil fuels for new plants in 2025.

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Xi Jinping visited Hong Kong in 2017 and again this year. Jinping wanted to see Hong Kong integrated with mainland China after years of British rule and a transition period in which control remained with Beijing. This has happened after protests that sought to maintain Hong Kong's special status collapsed with huge differences on both sides. Jinping says "no country on earth would allow unpatriotic and even treasonous or traitorous people to take power." He stated his view on this trip that "political power must be in the hands of patriots." 2022 marks 25 years since the handover to China of Hong Kong by Britain in 1997. The period of transition set was 50 years. It could be said that the speed of China's integration with the economies of the US and Germany allowed by Clinton, Bush, Obama, Schroeder  and Merkel may have unwittingly determined the duration of the transition to integration with China from 50 to 25 years. In 1997 China was just beginning the transition to a market economy- 50 year seemed a long distance away.  The Clinton, Bush, Obama and Merkel years accelerated China's integration into the ports of Los Angeles and Hamburg for manufactured imports at a breathtaking pace eventually leading to the collapse of the relationship as American and European workers were ignored and communities depending on factories in parts of US and Europe were thrown out of work. With it collapsed the arrangements of Hong Kong as China by 2022 was economically already where it thought it would be in 2047. Shenzen region's economy's size exceeded the Hong Kong economy. China no longer needed Hong Kong as a entry point for foreign technology and capital. Hong Kong had lost relevance as a city state from the British period with British values for sons of the veterans of the Communist revolution of the nineteen thirties and forties, one of whom was Xi Jinping. ...

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Under a new law going into effect on Oct. 1, 2017 and supported by Angela Merkel's government, all social networks will be required to delete within 24 hours "all illegal content." This is an effort to take immediate action against hate speech, libel and other illegal content. Companies could be fined upto $57 million. Germany's Justice Minister Heiko Maas said "we cannot accept that social networks ignore our laws." Mr. Maas says the voluntary effort setup earlier had not worked as the social media companies were too slow. The law now means the networks will devote more resources, with Facebook increasing the staff for this purpose doubling it almost from 4500 to 7500, showing that the problem had not been addressed the way it needed to be. The new law details 22 sections of the criminal code that social networks need to enforce. Including laws banning libel, character defamation, hate speech, insults against religions, offensive statements and privacy violations. Britain's May and France's Macron have also called the efforts of the networks insufficient. A similar law in the U.S. before the 2016 election could have saved the country from many of the problems arising from illegal content being posted, including damage to the image of the U.S., inciting deep divisions, racial tensions, hate rhetoric and defamation leading to coarsening of public dialogue and debate.  During 2016 many European leaders were exposed to hate speech including Angela Merkel. The social networks were slow to respond and did not take their civic duty as seriously as they should have considering the grave damage to the social and political fabric of the U.S. and the European Union countries. The governments also took time to act, studying the problem carefully before taking action leading to further damage, one reason the current legislation was passed quickly and decisively. Experts say other countries will act following the German example to preserve civil dialogue and strengthen democracy. ...

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Downtown San Diego Towers owned by Irvine Company go for 50% of purchase price when office vacancy is at 35%. After buying 93000 acres of coastal Orange County in 1977 and building office towers in San Diego, David Bren now 93 years, is offloading most of his investments in San Diego at half the price paid for it. This and the quality of life and homelessness in the downtown area of San Diego is depressing prospects for the city which is now dependent on the biotech sector.

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Surprisingly very little can be found on the internet on how the relationship between Apple's Tim Cook and Foxconn started and how it evolved over the two decades- a key to understanding the two decade rise of Apple since 1998 when Tim Cook, an Alabama engineer, joined Apple's Steve Jobs to rebuild an almost demolished Apple. It is also key to understanding the rise of China in manufacturing to the point of excluding all other countries, including the US, for major investments. It is also key to understanding how the social relations have been disrupted in the US, how the US workers and families suffered from outshoring on this massive scale never before seen in the US for 100 years of the Industrial Revolution since Lincoln in the 1860's. This has not significantly changed to this day as the US goes into the midterms to elect a new Congress. Mr. Trump ruffled sentiment on this issue but had little action or results to show for it to reverse this. Mr. Biden is making some headway as the US elects a new Congress in November 2022 to take up the tasks to restore American leadership in manufacturing and in technologies that support advanced manufacturing from semiconductors to renewable energy. What happens now depends on many things. Mr. Cook talks about intuition as a main driver along with preparation and hard work in his project which has done little for America and the American people, in the sense of how its communities look like, and how its families live, as they are largely excluded from Cook's Apple project. Even as it employs about 3 million workers of contract manufacturers, for the most part in China with Foxconn. Total employees in the US are 37,000 mostly highly paid engineers and technical workers. The 270,000 working in what it calls its ecosystem are mostly workers in retail stores paid much lower wages. Of manufacturing there is little on the scale in China. Not since the days of Lincoln in the 1960's who fought a civil war so that the rights of labour in the US were protected as seen in his message to Congress in the 1860's, and through the Industrial Revolution for 100 years, has something like this happened in the US. It is not about some manufacturing taking place in Asia, it is the sheer scale that excludes America from significant manufacturing, about 300,000 workers in the US mostly in lower paid retail jobs, and 3 million in China with contract manufacturers that is an aberration from history. It is about delegating an entire supply chain in manufacturing that constitutes this huge aberration.     ...

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A new House bill would give the FDA new funding to finance more food inspections and hire more employees for ensuring nations food safety system works properly. Inspections would go up from 7000 to 9000 and 350 more employees would be hired. To help fund this $500 per facility would be charged to food companies each year in fees.

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Democrats are feeling hopeful that they can keep control of the Senate after passing the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. This gives Democrats something to show Americans that tackles issues of inflation, climate change, fair taxation, healthcare access. In addition the Democrats have passed bills on building America's advanced technology industries with the semiconductor bill, earlier infrastructure bill in 2021, and a bill to help veterans. By not supporting the Inflation Reduction Act with all 50 Republican votes in the Senate voting against it Republicans are now less hopeful of winning the Senate.

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Forty years after a canal around Utrecht's old town was turned into a 12 lane motorway, the Dutch city is replacing the motorway with its 900 year old moat. Utrecht old city is now surrounded once again by greenery and water rather than concrete and fumes of exhaust. Efforts to sideline cars and bring back healthier living with bicycles began in 2002. The city was born in 1122. In 2017 the city opened a 12500 bicycle park next to the rail station. The central Zocherpark has been restored to 1830's design. This should be an inspiration for other cities in Europe. It is also a reminder for other cities in America, in Latin America, Asia and Africa to be careful before they let motorways take over. Even in the waterfront of American cities such as Chicago and Seattle the motorways have taken much space where greenery and fresh air would make for healthier living. Some French cities have done what Utrecht has done, supporting the general trend to return these wide healthy spaces back to the people.  ...

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US-Swiss trade deal November 2025 for 15% US tariff in exchange for $200 billion in investment in US. This includes access to Swiss markets for the US. The agreement also will let in dairy products and chocolate to the US at 15% tariff to reduce cost of living concerns. Swiss dairy producers and chocolate makers are likely to bear most of the 15% tariff burden because of higher margins. The $2000 rebate to all Americans from tariffs is a good idea of the DJT administration to give Americans protection from the smaller share of the tariffs that are passed on to consumers that are not borne by the producers exporting to the US. Overall in that situation the US will benefit in the restructuring of world trade that the DJT administration will have accomplished without hurting American consumers and bringing large scale investment into the US for jobs and higher wages. This is the part of the DJT Deal that could help America rebuild its manufacturing and economy in new ways.  ...

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Congestion pricing has cut vehicles in central Manhattan (NY) district by 11% in 2025. One benefit it has made finding parking space easier. Peopel avoid taking the car if they can. Fee is $9 below 60th Street. It means safer quieter streets, easier walks, less traffic, and revenue for public transportation projects. 27 million fewer car trips say NY authorites were made compared to before the pricing was introduced. Traffic moves at speeds faster by about 4-5%, yet in the tunnels and bridges in NYC the morning commute traffic moves from 15% to 30% faster so it eases up a lot of traffic movement.  $550 million from revenue generated from the pricing can now be invested in the rail and subway transit with additional investments to upgrade it to make life easier for transit riders. This is improving quality of life for New Yorkers not just in the city district but in the outlying areas of NY state and NJ where 73,000 fewer cars leave every day for the commute into NY City. ...

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As the first military plane with 100 deportees from the US lands in Amritsar in the Punjab state, there is this reflection in India on why migrants decide to come mostly from Gujarat and Punjab two of India's prosperous states, and Gujarat a centre for industrial development under Vikshit Bharat 2047. Modi visits Washington Feb 12 for meetings with DJT.  Times of India says agencies that track illegal migrants report 90,415 migrants illegally entered the US from Mexico or Canada between October 2023 to Sept 2024. Half of the 90,415 migrants were from Gujarat. The two leading states for migrants are Punjab, Gujarat followed by Haryana, UP and Maharashtra.  In the Punjab this report shows business communities and urban professionals as part of the illegal migrant flow looking for better life- for reasons of governance, and social security, including people from well to do families. And not for reasons of job scarcity. And this is changing demographis with decline in population in Punjab with it being made up by migration from Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Bihar states into Punjab.     ...

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Bernie Sanders tells his supporters at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia that "immediately right now, we have got to defeat Donald Trump, and we have got to elect Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine." He says this campaign was not about just electing a president but about transforming the country. And for this he was planning to back about 100 candidates with similiar thinking across the U.S. He called on supporters to continue the campaign for social, economic, racial and environmental justice. Voters for Sanders were offended by the information shown in DNC email leaks of the bias against Sanders shown by DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who has since resigned.

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UN projections show median age of Chinese citizens will overtake that of Americans in 2020. Yet China's median income is only a quarter of that in the U.S. Life expectancy in China today is 76, very close to that in America. In 1960 a Chinese person born that year had life expectancy of 44 years.  China is aging at the pace of Japan, and a bit slower than South Korea, but wealth per capita was three times higher in South Korea and Japan than China when the aging accelerated. A Chinese woman fertility rate today is 1.6 compared to 4.6 in 1973. A prominent Chinese economist says in a recent report that median age in China in 2050 will be nearly 50 compared to 42 in America and 38 in India. WSJ cites figures showing China will have gone from 9 working age adults per retired person in 2000 to just two by 2050. So how to pay for retirement of all these workers today? Government spending on retirement is a tenth of GDP, about half the level in older wealthier countries, and increase in spending will impact growth. Today this is about 6.2% potential growth rate. It also pushes wages up with a shortage of workers in cities such as Shenzen and X'ian even with the use of new technology and robots in factories.  Solutions are to raise retirement age currently set at 60 years, increasing labor force participation of women as Japan has done, and increasing productivity. China has transferred 10% equity stakes in four state owned financial firms to the national pension fund to shore up its finances as estimates from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences show it running out of money in 2035. Traditionally children supported families in old age but the one child policy leads to situations where the child is working or in another city. In Suzhou near Shanghai, a retirement business sends 1800 helpers to private homes and 130,000 retired people, in a new trend. The city administration of Shanghai plans 400 neighborhood care centres for elderly by 2022, with health clinics, drop in facilities, and homes. 12,000 elderly people use one centrre in central Shanghai area of Changning. ...

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Brexit and Scotland's referendum both have similar consequences economically for Britain and Scotland. This hurts both countries in unwinding relationships built over many years, unwinding 44 year membership for Britain, and 310 year union for Scotland. Britain exports to EU are 45% of total exports, and for Scotland the number is 63% for exports to the rest of the UK.  Scots benefit about 1200 British pounds more for average citizen than a average citizen of UK, and pay 400 pounds less to the government. Scotland would start with a 90% debt to GDP ratio if it takes a proportionate share of UK government debt from the beginning of independence. Fidler correctly points out the economic risks to Britain and Scotland which are being ignored or not fully taken into account by politicians.

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The US is sending the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System to Ukraine to counter Russian artillery and long range rocket attacks in the eastern Donbas region. This is part of a new $700 million 11th military aid package to Ukraine. Germany will provide its IRIS-T system to Ukraine with radar to track Russian artillery, so that entire cities can be protected from Russian artillery attacks. The US has obtained assurances from Mr. Zelensky that the HIMARS US system will only be used on Ukrainian territory and not into Russian territory. Ukraine currently lacks this type of system that reaches for 45 miles for its midrange system, and it is seen as crucial for defending Ukraine, as Ukrainians are being forced back with Russian artillery attacks. Mr. Biden in an article in the New York Times said the US goal was simply to see "a democratic, independent, sovereign Ukraine," not to oust Mr. Putin, or seek a broader conflict with Moscow. Mr. Biden said that this aid will make a diplomatic settlement more likely, as it will strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position. ...

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Vinay Menon put Wellness and Yoga on a new pathbreaking pattern- making it part of team soccer. He is shown here with coach Tuchel at Chelsea when it won the Champion's League final in 2021 over Manchester City. He was with the Belgium team as it played in the World Cup in Germany. He says the big problem in India for 1.4 billion people is filtration. Having talent filter through the club level is important. 100 clubs are needed in India, says Menon. He is confident that India will one day be in the World Cup. The Modi government has put sports at the top of its priorities for the nation of over  billion people with new facilities and financial support for athletes and players. Modi personally met with athletes before and after the Olympic games in Paris and followed the athletes as they competed in the games. Indians watch European soccer on television and only cricket competes with soccer in fan support. When India competes at the international level in soccer it will be with huge audiences tuned in. ...

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One Big Beautiful Act passed in US Senate with Vance casting tie breaking vote. It renews the tax cuts from DJT's first term in office in 2017 and provides tax cuts to seniors, middle class, and small business. It provides 100% expensing for business to increase investment. Mothers get child care credit that is doubled, senior citizens over 65 years get a $6000 deduction. The seniors deduction means 88% of seniors will now pay no taxes on social security benefits from 64%. Medicaid changes so that able bodied Americans will have to put in 80 hours of work to qualify.  Note that the Medicaid program was becoming unworkable and unsustainable- starting with the idea of helping people unable to work and transitioning those who could work, it jumped to $228 billion cost in 2000 from $28 billion in 1980, ten times over 20 years. Going up to $918 billion in 2024, 4 times the 2000 level. Medicaid is now 62% of what Social Security costs, $918 billion compared to $1480 billion for Social Security. ...

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Fragmentation based on regions, has led to lack of economic development and enormous poverty in Asia over hundreds of years. The civil wars in Japan's history before the Meiji period, the civil war in China during the period between the wars with Japanese invasion and warlords controlling different regions, acted as barriers to development. The wars between different kingdoms with invasions across Afghanistan and the Punjab in India in the period before 1800, led to British divide and rule, and lack of investment in development by the British for 200 years. It created the fragmentation that acted as a barrier to industrial development and modernization, a barrier to the spread of education, science and technology in these regions. All three regions in East Asia and South Asia have Buddhist/Vedanta civilizations. All worked to create national unity before they could modernize and build societies based on advanced science and technology to meet the aspirations of their people in all regions of their countries. ...