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U.S. president Obama in his speech at the Democratic National Convention describes Hillary Clinton as someone "who has been there for us- even if we haven't always noticed."  He warned against "home grown demagogues," and said " there were no serious solutions to pressing problems" at the Republican convention that was "not conservative, and wasn't particularly Republican."  

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The Economist magazine says Mr. Trump's claim that he could fix things because he is an outsider is now quickly proving to be false. The lack of experience works against the Trump administration as it stumbles from one crisis to another. The tweets that were used to turn voter sentiment against opponents now work the other way. There are other problems that are noted here but not emphasized to the extent they need to be. Mr. Trump, as Peggy Noonan, a Reagan aide, has pointed out in the WSJ, risks alienating the very blue collar vote, and older voters whose interests he claimed to defend. This happened with the Ryan Republican House health care bill as millions of poor Americans approaching retirement were one of the worst affected groups. The Economist points out that the next project to tackle tax reform has the same possible consequences for the Trump blue collar base, as it says Republican plans for tax reform are seen as regressive. Tax reform has eluded previous administrations, and requires more experience in building coalitions which the Trump administration lacks in its confrontational attitude towards Congressmen on both sides of the aisle who disagree with him. Improving the U.S. trade position, infrastructure investment are other areas that the administration plans to tackle, yet the first 100 days show that the lack of experience and the lack of a calm composed mind is hurting the Trump administration, to the point of policies that hurt the very voters who put their faith in the Trump administration to improve things. A similar process is unfolding in Britain as it faces a Brexit negotiation that the Economist points out has been badly handled by prime minister Theresa May, and could lead to worsening the economy if no deal is reached because the European Union sees that it is not in its interest to do so, and Ms. May realizes only later that she has taken nationalist sentiment a bit too far for a European economic arrangement to work and provide mutual benefit. A continent wide economic arrangement that it was the wisdom of past leaders from Britain, France and Germany to support for over six decades is not easily undone by one vote, or one government. ...

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Hilsenrath describes how the Federal Reserve missed the signs of the mortgage financial crisis of 2008, the bubble economy, and how low interest rates and other actions of the Fed to rescue the economy led to a situation which hurt savers. The lack of a serious plan for homeowner rescue as part of the actions by the government further hurt the working and middle class. The rescue also lacked credibility because the banks ended up becoming bigger than they were, and no action was taken in the U.S. which had been pushed by the U.S. in similiar situations overseas- for example on South Korean banks for overborrowing during the 1997 Asian financial crisis.  At the 2014 Boston Fed sponsored conference on Inequality, Fed chairman Janet Yellen described what she called the largest inequality in the U.S. not seen since the 19th century. The average net worth of the lower half of the distribution, said Yellen, of 62 million households, was $11,000, and a quarter of them had zero net worth. These were the shocking statistics that propelled two unlikely outsiders forward- Donald Trump to the Republican nomination for president, and Bernie Sanders who coming close to getting the Democratic nomination settled for a big part of setting the Democratic agenda supported by nominee Clinton in 2016. ...

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Turkish Opposition alliance leader Kilicdaroglu, a civil servant who has acted with humility throughout his career leading the Republican party founded by Kemal Ataturk in 1923, says he will bring Turkey back into the European fold. He would do this by strengthening NATO and Turkey's participation in NATO, admitting Sweden, and by seeking membership in the European Union. He tells a huge crowd in Istanbul:   "There are 5.3 million people who will go to the ballot box for the first time and cast their votes, and they want freedom and democracy... This fact is very important for us, for Turkey, for the European Union of which we are trying to be a member, and for western civilization." The last line "for western civilization" is striking as Turkey now and its younger generation sees itself as part of western civilization, of the EU and the US. Modernization of Turkey happened after Kemal Ataturk became president in 1923 and Turkey's identity has been forged as part of Europe in the twentieth century. It is now returning to its roots from the period before the Renaissance in Europe. ...

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The author of the study Youth in Germany Kilian Hampel says, German youth after the pandemic have increasing stress about soaring housing costs, inflation, war in Ukraine, and fears about old age poverty. This is similar to what is happening in the US. This will be a factor in the European elections. Though a lot is written about far right parties. Much of the work that remains is about ensuring fairness, and equity, tackling inflation and building housing. This needs greater investment than Germany is today undertaking. Much of the Greens and Socialist party plans to invest in the last federal election were stalled when they did not get a majority and had to depend on the FDP which is too conservative for making the investments needed in the economy. In the US Biden forged abipartisan effort and invested heavily in Republican areas in the south and west. A similar task is needed in Germany including investing in the East and in education, healthcare and building new infrastructure. Rail, road, airport and bridge infrastructure in Germany is dilapidated and only by investing in it can the economy gain strength to meet the aspirations of young people. ...

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To truly grasp George Washington's thinking about "the preservation of the Republican form of government as justly considered deeply, perhaps finally staked in the experiment entrusted to the hands of the American people," one has to look at his Draft of the First Inaugural Address, 1789. We could not access this on either the Library of Congress or National Archives sites. George Washington said in this Draft- "I rejoice in the belief that intellectual light will spring up in the dark corners of the earth, that freedom of enquiry will produce liberality of conduct, that mankind will reverse the absurd position that many were made for the few." "If the blessings of heaven showered thick around us should be spilled on the ground or converted to curses, through the fault of whom they were intended, it would not be the first instance of folly or perverseness in short-sighted mortals... that no mound of parchment can be formed to stand against the sweeping torrent of boundless ambition on one side, aided by the sapping current of corrupted morals on the other."   ...

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US District Judge O'Toole of Massachusetts allows DJT Musk DOGE buyout offer to go ahead on Feb 12, after freezing it to have enough time to study it. The buyout offer originally expired Feb 6. It was accepted by 60,000 federal employees. Of 2 million federal workforce about 8% are expected to take it. It is seen as a way for people doing remote work and now required to come to office 5 days a week full time to take early retirement, sort of an off ramp for these workers. DJT says some of these workers may be doing other second or even third jobs. This is part of a Republican effort to reduce the cost of the large federal bureaucracy, and make it more efficient. One of many actions including action on budget discipline at agencies of the government. PPBS or Zero Based Budgeting, since the 1970's is one of the managemt ideas which involves justifiying every item in the budget every year to cut costs and cut unneeded spending. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has spent years identifying pet projects of bureaucrats that are in budgets but lack common sense. ...

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Gerson says Obama failed to use democratic processes in Congress in his first and second terms, no matter how difficult, working through the difficulties to reach some sort of comprehensive reforms on immigration. Problem with the approach taken says Gerson is that those who want legalization get temporary work permits, those who are looking for a temporary worker program as in agricuture are left without any solution, workplace enforcement becomes difficult, and this leaves Republicans out of the discussion on immigration.

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Friedman on the energy bill, why its watered down in response to efforts of coal-state democrats in the absence of any support from Republicans, and why he still thinks by setting a price on carbon emissions this bill put forward by Waxman and Markey is good for America and the world. The need for young Americans to mobilize support, and for President Obama to do the same. The bill's goal is to reduce carbon emissions to 17% below 2005 levels.

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The large 11 point margin for State Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz, a Democrat, shows the effect of the issues of women's rights to abortion and of democracy are having in the state. She promised to use the new 4-3 majority in the Wisconsin State Supreme Court to nullify Wisconsin's 1849 abortion ban and overturn the state's gerrymandered Republican friendly legislative maps. It also shows the changes in the midwestern states. In Chicago Brandon Johnson came from behind to win the Mayoral election calling for new taxes and a vast program of social programs, in addition to a community involvement effort to fight crime over a candidate that focussed on the crime issue and policing. Happening in the same week these two elections give president Biden  more confidence going into the 2024 campaign that people in the midwestern states understand Mr. Biden's approach of investing in people and infrastructure with higher taxes, and rebuilding American manufacturing and technology, protecting worker rights and incomes. ...

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Brooks describes the U.S. presidential campaigns of Republican Romney and Democrat Obama as very consequential but incredibly dull, an effort to get uninformed voters with a barrage of negative advertising. There is very little enthusiasm for either candidate in their parties and the only feeling motivating each party is that the other candidate and his policies would be a disaster. There is hardly any effort at intellectual innovation, bringing new ideas or thoughtful debate into the election campaign. With four months left before the presidential elections the situation appears likely to drag on in this way right into the final days, with each side running a well oiled media campaign around themes that cast the other side in a negative light.

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Turkey's constitutional amendment to centralize powers in the office of the president was approved by 51.2% of voters with 48.8% voters saying "no." About 85% of 55 million eligible voters voted in the election. It was seen as not offering a level playing field for opposition parties to organize and have freedom of assembly, after action taken by the president against the media and opposition following the coup attempt in 2016. The opposition Republican Party says about 2.5 million votes may have been compromised. Also showing the wide split in the country between urban and rural, a majority of voters from the largest cities of Istanbul and Ankara voted against expanding the president's powers. The constitutional amendment now becomes effective in Nov. 2019 after new elections. Turkey's electoral boards are adminstered by judges, yet the integrity of the system of justice has suffered from the dismissal of about one third of all judges since July 2016.

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The 2016 presidential election campaign is expected to lead to $10 billion in campaign spending. The Federal Election Commission is unable to take any action against campaign abuses with the commission deadlocked 3-3, with 3 Democratic members and 3 Republican members voting strictly along party lines and seeing any move by the other side as partisan. The members are not even on talking terms. Republican members see the issue in terms of First Amendment rights to free speech. The Supreme Court's decision in the 2010 Citizens United case affirmed First Amendment rights of free speech and unlimited fund raising to conduct election campaigns. The Supreme Court ruling considered corporations as associations of individuals and therefore entitled to First Amendment rights of free speech. The Court suspended the "electioneering communication" ban imposed by the Bipartisan Reform Act of 2002, allowing corporations and unions to engage in free speech electioneering during election campaigns.

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Many of the towns with manufacturing plants in 1992 have switched sides from Democratic in 1992 to Republican in 2016. This explains Donald Trump's success - he tapped into discontent with Democrats who supported trade agreements such as TPP and did little to take up the cause of workers in areas hit hard by foreign manufacturing and imports. It also explains why Republicans are now favoring protectionism and Democrats supporting free trade, traditionally the opposite was true.   As the U.S. manufacturing workforce diminished in size from 15% of the U.S. workforce in 1992 to 8% in 2017, it shifted from cities with unions to blue collar suburbs. Factories in traditional Democratic places were closed down and these cities ceased to be manufacturing centres. Pittsburgh ceased to be a major manufacturing centre as manufacturing jobs declined by 37000, and service industries increased by 168,000. This resulted in the manufacturing heartland going through Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, through Ohio and the Carolinas and into the deep South. In these places whites without college education took up manufacturing jobs and identified with the Republican party's focus on social issues and abortion restrictions. So big is the shift that labor unions that represented 20% of manufacturing workers in 1992 represented only 9% of workers in 2017, according to economists at Georgia State University. Bill Clinton won 49% of working class counties where workers were at least 25% of the workforce. By 2016 the 860 such counties were down to 320 about two thirds now gone, and Mr. Trump took 95% of these counties. The change is dramatic. Voters that identify Democrat are now from cities, more educated, and less likely to be identified as blue collar. As the economies of these cities has shifted to finance and service industries, these residents have not accomodated the conservative cultural views. and have shifted to embracing more immigration, LGBT, gay rights on social issues. Before there was one mention in the 1992 Democratic platform of LGBT says the Journal, now there is 19 mention of rights for LGBT. Republicans have now shifted from privatizing Social Security, and now support some infrastructure spending. Republican platform now calls for free trade that is fair trade. And this has support from the left and the right. Factory owners and factory workers are united in their opposition to free trade rules that hit American factories. Union leaders say the Democratic Party left us. The Democratic Party gets more support and identifies more with Silicon Valley- Mr. Obama's TPP trade agreement benefitted Silicon Valley more than it did auto plants. The change happened over many years and Mr Trump capitalized on this. ...

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Leonhardt points out in the NYT that Hillary Clinton actually won in the popular vote by a substantial margin, by more than 2 million votes and more than 1.5 percentage points. He says that Democrats need to pay more attention to the working class in midwestern states- the job losses, crumbling infrastructure, and the plight of communities such as Detroit, Michigan which suffered through the bankruptcies of Chrysler and GM, and again with the foreclosure crisis, the financial crisis of the City of Detroit. With a similar situation in the neighboring states of Wisconsin and Ohio, in places like Toledo and other parts of communities facing industrial decline. While the Silicon Valley centred region powered the economy in California, and the financial industry and real estate powered New York, older midwestern communities never really recovered from a long decline stretching over 2 decades. The result was the loss of faith in Democrats among union workers and young people, leading to the loss of Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan. For most of its history the Democratic Party was based on its union and working class base including a large number of white voters. Only under Obama because of his unique candidacy was the coalition so dependent on the minorities vote. Before minorities were part of the Democratic coalition, but not in the way under the Obama candidacy. A return to its historic and normal base among whites in unions and working class communities, liberals, minorities, is a way to go back to the historic and natural base of Democratic support. In a sense dependence on tech communities for election funding and the tech booms, globalization, may have distorted Democrats sense of their historic role as champions of the working class and middle class communities throughout the country. There is now an opportunity to restore this lost mission of protecting the interests of the middle and working class who have seen huge drop in net worth as reported by Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve at the Inequality Conference on October 17, 2014-"62 million households with a net worth of $11,000 for the year 2013." Poorly covered in the media and not made the utmost priority by Democrats (or Republicans). In the words of Janet Yellen, this was in the past several decades "the most sustained rise in inequality since the 19th century after more than 40 years of narrowing inequality since the Great Depression." She added the shocking words "by some estimates, income and wealth inequality near their highest levels in the past hundred years, and probably much higher than much of American history before then." Even discussion in the media goes back to the Obama coalition and treats it as a way forward for Democrats, when history shows it was different and the situation described by Yellen calls for a serious response. ...

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A new study by the Washington Post and the Kaiser Family Foundation shows partisan politics will affect the new president in the U.S. in 2013, to the point of making it difficult to govern.

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Senator Rubio, Republican nominee for Secretary of State, is given good points by the Wash. Post for helping negotiate a 2013 bipartisan deal on immigration that passed the Senate but could not pass in the US House of Representatives. And for his willingness to compromise.

On Ukraine and Eastern Europe after the invasion of Ukraine Rubio with Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Virginia) inserted an amendment into 2023 defense authorization bill that prevents any president from withdrawing from NATO unless two thirds of the Senate agrees.

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Kamala Harris to visit Arizona and the Southern Border today. Will call for tough border action and signing into law immigration legislation negotiated by Republican Senator Lankford that would close the Southern Border. Labour's Starmer is taking the same steps in Britain, so is France under Macron and Barnier, so are Northern European socialist leaders such as Mette Frederiksen of Denmark who want to see immigration stopped so that cost of living and the economy, childcare, issues of importance for workers and families can be addressed vigorously.