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President Richard Nixon was named by a grand jury in 1974 but was never charged with a crime says WSJ. By the time he left office Nixon's reputation had suffered severe damage. NYT reports that this is different with Mr. Trump who seeks the nomination of the Republican party in 2024, raising a whole new set of issues of what is and is not appropriate behaviour for the office of the president of the US or for that matter any high office in the United States of America. Ultimately new standards will be set and the past few years make be looked back on as an anomaly in the history of the US.

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For the first time in three decades US economic growth will be much faster than China's. Second quarter 2021 growth in the US was 12.2% compared to 7.9% in China, and will continue to be much higher for five consecutive quarters. This report in the WSJ says it is the result of the US response to the Covid pandemic. The US vaccination drive, massive fiscal stimulus and near zero interest rates have helped, including the confidence generated by the $1 trillion infrastructure investments planned for this decade. Over the longer term Capital Economic estimates China's GDP around 2030 will drop to 2% growth with demographic decline, just as the demographic factors favor Indian growth to levels that China has seen in the last two decades. This was the plan and vision set out by the Indian prime minister for 2047, on the 100th anniversary of independence. For the future government help has helped US households accumulate $2.6 trillion in excess household savings, which Moody's estimates is 7 times that in China.  In the longer term gaps will have narrowed between Asia and Europe, the US, which is a good thing. More will need to be done in Africa and Latin America. Much of the talk about who leads ignores the local needs in cities and towns across all parts of the world for a better quality of life, better education, better nutrition, better healthcare, meeting aspirations of young people, and supporting hope for a better future. ...

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It is a major step to cut carbon missions in half by 2030. The Biden plan is to have majority of cars to be electric by 2032. It does not require a certain number of cars to be electric only requires carmakers to meet certain emission requirements overall and the carmakers then choose what the mix of gas, electric, hybrid would be. It also has concessions to workers unions and carmakers, and an understanding that there is resistance to buying electric when charging stations don't exist in adequate numbers and costs are high for electric. It does this by allowing accelerated development in 2030, 2031 2032 to do the job, as by 2030 enough capital investment and research will have happened to make this possible. This also seeks to not politicize climate change in the way the former president seeks to do as a realistic plan is needed and simply having no plan and eliminating the political opponent's plan and denying climate change is not possible in 2024 as in 2016, there is just too much happening in terms of floods and fires for people to not believe. Automakers and workers themselves believe that a plan is needed to fight climate change in 2024 even though these same automakers such as VW and large automakers in the US had a wait and see attitude in 2016. For the Biden administration listening to carbuyers, carmakers, auto workers and the general public to make the plan workable and meet real concerns is the best way forward in 2024. ...

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The European Union is making good use of the crisis in Ukraine to ramp up its shift to renewable energy. This WSJ report shows charts of where the EU is focusing its efforts from conservation, heat pumps, hydrogen, to wind and solar. Wind and solar show massive increases by 2030. By 2030 the European Union plans to increase wind and solar energy from 20 billion cubic metres to 170 billion cubic metres according to estimates from The European Commission shown in this graph by WSJ.

By the end of 2022 two thirds of Russian natural gas imports to the EU will have been replaced and by 2030 all of such imports will be replaced. 

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A 2024 Study by the International Trade Commission predicted that a 25% tariff on imports would reduce imports by almost 75 percent while increasing average prices in the US by about 5 percent.  As US companies have about half of the US auto market this would mean US auto manufacturers now have access to an additional 37 percent of the market by investing in auto plants in the US. US steel and aluminium plants will get additional investment to build these cars in the US. There is nothing new about this the US makers built plants in China. Germans, Japanese and Koreans took the US for stupid by keeping US cars out of their markets and thinking this could go on while by destroying US manufacturing it was  destroying America's middle class. It also gives the Germans BMW and VW, Subaru, the Japanese Toyota and Honda, Nissan, the South Koreans Kia and Hyundai, Chinese makers of EV's the option to Make in the USA and build plants invest in US manufacturing.  ...

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US- China trade relations 2025 and XI's rare earth minerals export restrictions response to US tariffs. DJT resonse was 100% tariff on China from 57%. After meeting Xi in Busan, South Korea, after the APEC meetings, US settled on 10% reduction in tariffs from the 57% tariffs on Chinese products down now to 47%. The 100% tariff was withdrawn by DJT and China's Xi settled on withdrawing restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals. The fentanyl tariffs are still in place and the WSJ editorial says not much is likely to happen on fentanyl action by China to stop exports of fentanyl that reach the US through Mexico. China says it will take in soyabeans exports. US signs agreement with Australia to develop alternative supplies of rare earth minerals. The WSJ says for tariffs action to work US should not tariff allies. Yet broad tariffs action was necessary as partners Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the EU, Canada and Mexico were also nations that created an unfair trade situation for the US. The US took action on all nations that take unfair advantage of free trade concepts to benefit them which also add to the credibility of tariffs as effort to restore fairness in world trade.  ...

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This report in WSJ looks at the impact of the 2018 Trump tariffs retained by president Biden as the US seeks to reduce its overdependence on Chinese imports and bring back American manufacturing. This followed misguided policies of previous administrations since Clinton that weakened American manufacturing strengths. Have the US tariffs on Chinese goods worked? The WSJ graph with information from US Census Bureau shows that imports from China in 2022 going down to the levels in 2007 of about 16-17% as a share of US imports, down from a high of 21% before the Trump tariffs halted a rapidly rising curve. Imports from Germany, South Korea and Japan in 2022 were down slightly hovering around 4.5%. Imports increased from Canada and Mexico, the US's traditional partners in North America, around 13.5% as a share of US imports for each country. Also increasing were imports from Vietnam. Some of the imports from Vietnam are Chinese products shipped through Vietnam to evade tariffs, and it is not clear whether the figures from Vietnam have been adjusted for this. President Biden is looking at different scenarios in an effort to tackle inflation. One supported by Janet Yellen, an economist at US Treasury is for the US to relax some of the China tariffs. Most economists in previous administrations including Yellen failed to understand what surrendering American manufacturing to China on the scale and speed that happened would do to communities across America that depended on factory jobs. The devastation of these communities has led to increased divisions in America, weakened American manufacturing, and led to outflow of technologies vital for national security and national well being.  Republican senators, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan are opposed to any relaxation of tariffs. Studies show the removal of the tariffs would have only a small impact on the consumer price inflation index reducing inflation by 0.26%. Lifting some tariffs on school supplies and summer bicycles as proposed by the US Chamber of Commerce would have little or no impact on the consumer price index for inflation. This is because the inflation is triggered by oil and gas price increases stemming from the Russian policies and invasion of Ukraine. This has also aggravated food and grocery costs  through blocking of agricultural imports from Ukraine. An additional factor was the increased demand after the pandemic easing in 2022, but that demand is already easing in July with glut in inventories at Walmart and Target, and excess warehouse capacity at Amazon. It would also send the wrong signal to China that the tariffs imposed by president Trump after a Section 301 trade investigation and based on improper loss of technologies to China are not being taken seriously by the US, says Republican Senator Hagerty of Tennessee. The Labor advisory committee to the US Trade Representative Katherine Tai also opposes any such move after the serious damage done to US workers and to US national well being and security. This happened under the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations with failed trade policies that ceded manufacturing to China. ...

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As tensions increase with Japan Xi turns to the US and has discussion on Ukraine and Taiwan with US president DJT. Xi looks for ways to build a better understanding with the US on a unification of China with Taiwan.  Chinese president Xi calls DJT November 23, 2025. In the background the US 28 Point Peace Plan for Ukraine is being discussed with Ukraine and the EU.

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Marek Belk, head of Poland's central bank, says Poland should prepare for impact of a general slowdown in the eurozone. Poland's economy is expected to grow at 4% for 2011, but experience a slower rate of growth in 2012. Poland's public debt is at 55% of GDP compared to 120% for Italy. Belka said the mistakes in Italy show it is important to stay ahead of the markets. The action taken in Italy on November 14, 2011, if taken 2 months earlier would have prevented the jump in Italy's borrowing costs. Risks facing Poland come from the fact that a large proportion of the nation's banking assets are owned by banks of other European countries- as much as 70% of Poland's banking assets. As a result if these banks experience difficulties the local branches could become orphans. Belka would like to see private capital in Poland be used to bring a larger share of the banking sector back in Polish hands. Belgian and Portuguese banks are considering selling their banking operations to Polish banks, and PKO Bank Polski SA, PZU SA are possible buyers. Poland's central bank has kept interest rates steady at 4.5%....

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The US imported $1 billion in enriched uranium from Russia in 2022, about one third of the enriched uranium used in the US. Most of the rest is imported from Europe. Senator Joe Manchin has a bill that would provide subsidies to develop America's nuclear enrichment industry. It was privatized in the nineteen nineties. Under a 1993 agreement seen as a de-escalatory gesture the US turned to depend on Russia for its enriched uranium. Russia had developed technologies for cheaper production. The de-escalatory gesture called Megatons to Megawatts turned over the industry to Russia in a way that the US transferred its manufacturing capacity in chip production to China. Plants in Wyoming and Ohio remain empty as a result, and the Biden administration is being urged to move forward with investments in US enriched uranium production for its non-fossil fuel energy production.

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Germany realizes that it had some advantages in exporting automobiles and machinery to the US, and the EU understands advantages it has in pharmaceuticals exports from Ireland and other countries. EU officials rarely mention this lack of an even playing field with the US. In this report by DW.com German and Austrian research groups say it is best that the EU nor respond to tariffs placed on the EU by the US. Under the 90 day pause to allow time to start negotiations the EU tariff is at 10%, with separate tariff on steel and aluminium, and on car exports. It shows the EU makes loud protests about the US Tariffs, yet knows the need for an even playing field in 2025. The EU and Germany are likely to join other nations Japan, South Koreea, Taiwan, Italy, Britain and seek negotiations with the US for fairness in trade.

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Most of the reporting on Ukraine follows the war. Questions are asked how will this conflict end? This report in Der Spiegel is one of the rare reports that looks at the Ukrainian economy with images and reporting from the ground that answer that question. If the Ukrainian economy is surviving in 2023 then Ukraine will continue long after a peace settlement is reached. It shows for instance that supermarket shelves are well stocked. It shows energy from half a million generators keeps the lights on and companies working in Ukraine. The steel industry is mostly destroyed yet the software industry continues to grow. Unemployment is 30% even after hundreds of thousands of younger Ukrainians are at the war front. Of about $62 billion promised by US and European countries about $31 billion has actually been transferred to Ukraine. The IMF has created an exception for aid to Ukraine with offices in Kviv and Brussels. All defense needs are covered from the Ukraine budget. Before the invasion in Feb 2021 defense took up 9% of the budget, now it takes up 42% of the budget. Another 16% for public security. For social benefits 16%, and another 26% for other expenditures. By having an economy that is functioning and life even in light from generators and solar energy, with supermarkets well stocked and providing office space for workers, with aid mechanisms working. Ukraine has already emerged as part of Europe, tried, tested and come through adversity of the worst sort. It is supposed to join the European Union, yet Der Spiegel says it is already tightly integrated into the EU. Its power grid was integrated with the EU power grid before the war, and nuclear power was sent to the EU from Ukraine before Russian attacks on the nuclear plant. Then transmission lines brought energy to Ukraine from the EU. The EU takes in 80% of Ukraine agricultural exports compared to 20% before the war. Even at the risk of lower prices and hurting farmers in Poland, the Polish government has allowed large imports of agricultural products into Poland. The close links with countries of the EU that share a border with Russia have increased. The problems now are that Ukraine after this war will have severe shortage of manpower. Already with the fall of the Soviet Union Ukraine lost about 8 million people and population was 44 million before the war. About 8 million people moved to Ukraine in the one year following Russian invasion. Of this 1.5 million stayed in Poland, the rest went on to other countries in the EU or returned. The countries such as Germany, Finland, Czech Republic have labor shortages of their own and encourage refugees to stay. Rebuilding is estimated to cost $131 billion. Yet as is evident in Poland after most of the damage from the second world war in Poland it was rebuilt using modern technology. Ukraine survives, its life goes on, is the message from Der Spiegel. In this way the war's outcome is already evident. Much of it comes from the European Union having sensed that attacks made with impunity would endanger all of the European countries when made by any dominant power. This is also what Cambridge historian Brendan Simms has shown about European history for the past 500 years in History of Europe- The struggle for Supremacy 1452 to the present. No one country says Simms was able to act with impunity and pose athreat to its neighbors as all other countries in Europe rallied to prevent this. This war is no exception.   ...

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With better control over the coronavirus than U.S. and Europe, South Korea is not rushing to buy the vaccines developed by Pfizer or Moderna. It is waiting to see how the vaccine rollouts work in other countries before buying the vaccine. South Korea is also looking at getting better price from manufacturers after the rollouts in the U.S. and Europe. South Korea is moving cautiously and has said it wants to get 10 million doses through the Covax initiative the main global effort to provide broad access to vaccines. Another 20 million doses would be secured from private companies. This is in contrast to the approach in Japan where the government has signed deals for purchase of 290 million doses for 145 million people for its population of 126 million. The money allocated is $6.5 billion and the goal is to vaccinate everyone by first half of 2021.  If it works this would prepare Japan for the Tokyo Summer Olympics to open in July, after 1 year delay. South Korea has the freedom to do this and wait to see what vaccine works best with least long term effects because their are relatively fewer cases there. A total of 313 new daily cases on November 18, lower than daily cases in a single county in the state of Michigan in the U.S. Moderna and Pfizer vaccines use anew kind of gene based technology that has never been approved to prevent infectious diseases. Other competition is the vaccine from Oxford and Astra Zeneca which uses an existing technology that is used in existing vaccines modified for use in coronavirus. The Oxford vaccine and a vaccine from Johnson and Johnson are expected to have a lower price. Because life is functioning very close to normal South Korea is in the unusual position of saying that its people have no reason to be anxious for vaccine procurement, as indicated by its deputy director of Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. Only three fifths of the population is the target for vaccination by fall of 2021. ...

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The German lower and upper houses of parliament, the Bundestag and the Bundesrat, passed legislation to end the use of coal by 2038. The phase out has two parts one is the legal avenue for reduction in emissions, the other is the regional economies of affected states. The government will provide 40 billion euros for restructuring economies, including reskilling workers and providing new infrastructure, for the effort. coal operators will also receive compensation if they announce plans for closure of coal plants by 2026.

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The US added 167,000 jobs in July 2023 from a month earlier, according to the Labor Department, less than 200,000 anticipated. Higher population numbers and higher labor force participation rates offset the increasing  number of retired people in the US. More people added to the population from immigration and more younger people participating in prime age under 54. This means the US is where it would like to be with the Fed not having to increase rates that much in coming months, says Justin Lahart of WSJ. The Labor Department increased its estimates of population by 867,000, and the labour force participation for prime age is up to 84%. These are good signals for the US economy, that there is room for more jobs growth and income growth with an unemployment rate at 3.5%, and less need for increasing interest rates by the Fed.

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Heat mapped sidewalk heat is shown in color images in the NYT for 3 US cities Phoenix, Sacramento and Portland. Phoenix one can understand but Sacramento and Portland are hard to grasp- such is the acceleration of climate change effects across the Us and in other parts of the world. Does one then sees anywhere in the NYT, WSJ, W. Post, the Guardian, on the television news channels any coverage of what each candidate for the next 4 years running the US government is going to do for climate change effects? Inaction on climate change would produce severe costs for the US economy which will drain its resources 2-4 years from now as the effects of climate actually accelerate when nothing is done. This could cost as much as a trillion dollars in 2028 if nothing is done for climate change under the former president.

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The US abortions increased by about 9% from 2017 to 2020 says this report in WSJ, going from 862,000 to 930,000 according to the Guttmacher Institute. Some states expanded Medicaid access to abortions and increased funding, leading to more services being added. Illinois for example had 25% increase which may have included women from Missouri going to Illinois. If the Supreme Court reverses Roe vs. Wade, the 1973 precedent that established the constitutional right to abortion, 25 states would restrict or prevent the access to abortion.

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The price of gas powered cars and EV's is closing, to about $5000 according to Cox Automotive. Tesla is cutting prices because of new competition from Japanese, Korean and German models in the US market. China's BYD is also in the global market with new battery technology that cuts cost. Batteries make up 40% of EV car cost. The cost of making EV's will drop to becoming the same as gas powered models by 2027 as companies get more experience in the new technologies, says Gartner.

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The US Labor Department will now require not just 401(k) administrators but also advisers for retirement plans called IRA's to follow the higher fiduciary standards of the 1974 ERISA law that aims to protect American retirees. When workers leave a company or retire they rollover their money into IRA's. This retiree money will now be protected with a high fiduciary standard as it should have been all along. In 2020 alone the IRS estimate is that $620 billion was rolled over to to such IRA's.

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The Senate election in Georgia with Governor Kemp running for the Republican party will show how much support there is for Mr. Trump's idea that the 2022 presidential election was stolen by Democrats. Mr. Kemp has avoided getting into Mr. Trump's contention that the election was stolen, preferring to focus on good governance for the state and local issues relating to the economy. Kemp is likely to be the Republican nominee for the election to the US Senate and is well positioned to win the Senate seat.

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With a win in the Kingswood byelection, a Tory stronghold, Britain's Labor party is now seeing a real shift of voter sentiment for a large majority in parliament in the coming general election. Britain entered a recession in Feb 2024 and the Conservatives have no solutions for the economy after many years in power, and 4 prime ministers in a constant change of leadership. Britain also lacks the resources that make it possible to have the kind of investment and scale of investment in the US that president Biden has launched.

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Sweden and Finland say they want to preserve their right of self-determination to join NATO. Russia will meet with NATO in the context of the NATO-Russia Council on Jan. 12, 2022, for discussions. Russia has given its list of grievances and demands to the US in meetings between Biden and Putin. The Western alliance and NATO aligned nations in Eastern and Northern Europe see standing firm together as the best way to counteract Russian pressures as it places 100,000 Russian troops on Ukraine's borders.

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US president Biden holds his first formal news press conference of 2022 on January 19. It comes at the end of Biden's first year in office. Biden's achievements include 200 million Americans vaccinated, and $1 trillion infrastructure bill passed with a direct impact on the nation's infrastructure gaps. A $2 trillion Build Back Better plan for building healthcare and education, and a climate change plan are next on the agenda requiring the president to increase support for national revival and addressing challenges of climate change.

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In a positive step for the US economy new Speaker Mike Johnson works with Democrats to get a two thirds majority in the House to pass the budget bill 336-95, extending government agency funding to February 2024. A bill for full year spending will come later avoiding shutdown talk and disruptions. Mike Johnson says- "I believe we can fight for principles and still do things simultaneously. When you have a small majority, it requires that some things are going to have to be bipartisan." 

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Utilities moved away from coal under the Trump administration. In 2024 energy from coal is three times costlier than energy from solar or wind. Coal is now being phased out as it now produces only 16% of the US energy needs from 50% under the Obama administration 2008-2016. First there was the shift to fracking natural gas from coal and now there is the shift to solar and wind. States needed by the two parties such as Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin are not coal producing states.