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Shiller's ten year earnings P/E ratios for U.S. stocks are at about 24.5 in October 2013. By comparison Shiller adjusted 10 year P/E ratio for Greece is at 4, Italy and Spain at close to 10 and Germany at 15.6. The one year earnings P/E ratios in Oct 2013 are at 15.8 for U.S. stocks. Within the U.S. Shiller says, the sectors where P/E ratios are much lower than 24 are in healthcare and energy and industrials. Emerging markets are also much lower than 24 for the U.S., says Shiller.

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A report from the U.S. Federal Reserve on the impact of the financial crisis of 2008-2009 on the wealth of American households. Between 2007 and 2010 says the report the median net worth of American families went down by 39%, from $126,400 in 2007 to $77,300 in 2010. This had the result of putting Americans back to the level of net worth in 1992. Much of the loss in net worth was from asset value reductions. The median value of stock market based retirement accounts decreased by 7% to $44,000. The biggest drop was in housing values- falling by 42% to $55,000 in the three years. Americans are working down their debt- a quarter of families are debt free, credit card balances declined 16% to $2600 from $3100 from the period 2007 to 2010 of the report. Yet the median level of family debt remains the same as more families support their kids education by taking out college loans. Median income fell about 8% to $45,800 in 2010, with income losses especially large in the manufacturing industries as the U.S. manufacturing sector worked to improve competitiveness. Other factors supplement this picture. The burden of college loans increased to over $1 trillion for middle and working class families. With the burden of college debt young people were more likely to delay buying first homes, indefinitely dealying recovery in the housing market. Seniors on retirement see interest income from savings negligible with low interest rates and higher risk in a volatile stock market. ...

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Speaking at the annual meeting of Italy's banking association on July 11, 2012, prime minister Mario Monti calls the struggle he is leading to change the economic performance of Italy, and especially against structural vices in the economy, "a very tough war." He added that the plan to reduce Italy's borrowing rates with the agreement to use the ESM or EFSF, the EU's rescue fund, "must be consolidated both in its substance and the way it is communicated." Bank of Italy governor, Ignazio Visco, said the spread between Italian and German bonds and the borrowing rates approaching 7% for Italy compared to about zero for Germany and France, were "far above what would be justified by the fundamentals of our economy." Deputy finance minister, Vittorio Grilli, is taking over the role of finance minister which Monti had assumed earlier. Monti will lead a new economic and financial policy committee which includes Mr. Grilli and development minister Corrado Passera.

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Adam Parker, chief equity strategist of Morgan Stanley, sees the Standard and Poor's 500 stock index ending 2012 at 1167. Garry Evans, global head of equity strategy at HSBC, sees the S&P 500 stock index ending 2012 at 1190. This is down from the end of 2011 level of 1257. David Kostin, top equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, sees the S&P at 1250 at the end of 2012. Parker, Evans and Kostin, share concerns about the macroeconomic environment and Europe. Parker also sees weakness in bank earnings contributing to this level in the S&P 500 stock index. Parker view global macroeconomic factors determining 50% of the outcome, with weaknesses not only in Europe but also in China. His predictions for S&P earnings per share are at about $100 for 2012 and $103 for 2013.

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Hillary Clinton attacks Trump's policies in an address in Warren, Michigan, saying this was another version of failed trickle down economics. She called Trump's idea of taxing pass through entities such as small business reporting business income on individual tax returns at 15%, as a "Trump loophole." On trade policy Hillary Clinton said she would oppose the TPP or Trans- Pacific Partnership Trade Agreement that president Obama has supported. She put it flatly- " I oppose it now. I'll oppose it after the election, and I'll oppose it as president." And pointed out that too many companies have moved jobs overseas and "moved operations overseas and sold back into the U.S." after pushing for trade deals. The answer she said 'is not to rant and rave- or to cut us off from the world," in reference to protectionist policies Trump has supported. 

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Krugman cites Apple as the largest company in the U.S. in terms of its valuation but having only 43,000 employees in the U.S. He asks the question- why does Apple get most of its manufacturing done in China? Apple indirectly employs about 700,000 people at its suppliers, with most of them in China. Companies contribute to a country's economy by creating successful clusters of research, innovation and manufacturing. In Apple's case, to the great detriment of the U.S. economy, the manufacturing part is being done entirely overseas. If cost is the only factor for this, then the question remains how German manufacturing has managed to surivive and grow with wages that are higher than in the U.S.

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The appointments to key economic positions in the Jinping-Keqiang administration in 2013 reflect continuity and importance given to experience. Zhou Xiaochuan continues as head of the central bank PBOC, to keep an experienced person in the the event of a financial crisis. Lou Jiwei, chairman of the sovereign wealth fund, is now the new finance minister. Xu Shaoshi, minister of land and resources, is the new head of the National Development and Reform Commission, the economic planning agency. Xiao Gang, chairman of the Bank of China, one of four state owned banks, will be the new head of the securities regulator, China Securities Regulatory Commission. Zhang Gaoli, a member of the Political Standing Committee of the Communist party, and Wang Yang, party chief of southern Guangdong province, also join the economic team. Li Keqiang, the new prime minister emphasized the agenda for the next decade telling a press conference: "Talking the talk is not as good as walking the walk. We need to pursue market oriented reforms." This means giving the private sector and consumers a signficant role in the Chinese economy....

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Meet Victor Brown, one of the remaining 450 workers at Buick City, GM's sprawling plants in Flint, where in the 1980's 27,000 workers built GM cars. Victor Brown of Clio, Michigan, and O.C. Cooper do not want to leave, and have repeatedly turned down buyout offers from GM preferring to stay with GM even if it enters bankruptcy, and take their chances. Since 2006, GM has persuaded 60,000 of its hourly employees- about half of the total hourly workforce at GM in the USA- to take cash buyouts and leave. Cooper says, this is the only life he knows, he is 64, a machine operator at Flint North, a run down engine plant in Flint, Michigan. Every day for the 42 years he has worked here, he gets up, washes up, and drives to the plant. He can't imagine anything else. If he leaves he will give up $60,000, for apension half that amount, with no guarantee that its secure after a GM bankruptcy. Victor Brown is 55, a repairman with 36 years at GM, he is divorced and putting a son through college. A year ago he and others turned down a buyout offer for $62,500 to retire with all benefits, now this is down to $20,000, and a car voucher for $25,000. GM needs an additional 21,000 jobs to be cut and closing of 13 plants in its latest restructuring under help and supervision from the Obama administration. ...

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Japan's new LDP prime minister, Shinzo Abe, supports targeting the yen at around 90 yen to the dollar to support Japanese exporters. He sees this happening through monetary easing by Japan's central bank. At a rate of 85 yen to the dollar or above Japanese exporters would be in a position to become profitable and pay taxes. Abe says central banks around the world, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, are printing money to support their economies and increase exports. Switzerland and S. Korea pursued policies to keep their currencies from becoming too strong to support their exporters. China has managed its exchange rate to maintain export competitiveness. Exchange rate intervention has not been effective for Japan, and the focus now is on monetary policy and setting a 2% inflation rate target.

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Nocera looks at the lack of efforts to help homeowners under water in the Obama administration. Sheila Bair comments on Geithner's role, as Geithner's book "Stress Test" provides little detail on how the Obama administration addressed the issue. A story by Dougherty in the WSJ on April 20, 2014, points out that about 10 million households in America are underwater in 2014, and another 10 million households have only 20% equity in their homes. Unemployment statistics in the same issue of the WSJ show 7 million people taking parttime jobs because they cannot find work. These households are critical for consumer spending to support growth. The weak economic recovery could very well be one of the results of poor policy decisions by the Obama administration including this one, when other alternatives proposed by Sheila Bair and Martin Feldstein were offered repeatedly in 2009-2010. Here Nocera documents the efforts by Senator Durbin to give homeowners rights to go to bankruptcy court to provide ways to negotiate ways out of foreclosure....

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Several experts point to a dangerous change in the nature of unemployment in this downturn. Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute, says people are more likely to get stuck with unemployment now than at any time in the post war period. Andrew Stettner, deputy Director of the National Employment Law Project, says a larger share of the unemployed are not going to be able to go to the same line of work. They will need new skills, just like an auto worker in a permanently downsized industry would have to find new skills to make a product in the renewable energy field or health care. And the law as it currently stands does not help either. Because if an unmeployed worker looks for training or goes back to school he loses his unemployment benefits, something the Obama administration proposes to change. What this means is that many of the unemployed will end up as permanent job losers. Rob Valetta, an economist at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank says that throughout the the last 3 decades including good times, the unemployment pool is shifting towards permanent job losers. Lawrence Katz, a Harvard University economist, points out that once workers exhaust their unemployment benefits and don't get new training, they become disconnected to the labor market, and bascially end up on disability or become permanently unemployed. The statistics bear this out. In April 2009, 47.1% of the people collecting state unemployment insurance exhausted the usual 26 weeks of benefits without finding work, according to the Bureau of Laor Statistics, that is the highest rate on record. In December 2007, there were about 2 unemployed workers for every job opening, according to Labor Department data. In March 2009 there were five unemployed workers for every opening. Mark Beaupre, 49, of Providence, R.I. lost his $8 an hour manufacturing job an year ago, one of many manufacturing jobs he has held since the 1980's. His wife Cathy lost her customer service job a year ago. This couple who together made $50,000 a year, are now behind on their mortgage payments and have applied for food assistance. At a recent job fair in Providence he says three thousand people turned up and he could not even get into the parking lot. ...

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Friedman reviews Acemoglu and Robinson's new book, "Why Nations Fail." Acemoglu says that nations fail when wealth and opportunities are concentrated in the hands of few people, that a condition for societies to succeed is to create opportunities for more people. For this to happen it is important to create inclusive political and economic institutions. This is an important insight, but for Western society this is an insight as old as Adam Smith when he pointed out the importance of this aspect of western societies after the feudal period in his "Wealth of Nations." For Smith it was the failure to create inclusive societies that led to the gradual unravelling of societies in the river valleys of the Yangste and the Ganges, in China and India, of increasing poverty and the gradual disappearance of what constituted the middle class in India and China. Chapter 8 titled "Of Wages and Labor" in the "Wealth of Nations" makes specific reference to this.

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Indifference on the Republican side, and a sense that not much is going to get done on the Democratic side, as President Obama pitches a $447 billion second stimulus plan in a speech to both houses of the U.S. Congress on September 8, 2011. Dana Milbank documents the attitudes and skepticism with which members of Congress received the proposals- a general sense that President Obama was too weak and ineffective to get things done and has lost credibility. John Taylor, senior economic advisor on the Republican side pointed out in a Wall Street Journal column a few days before the speech, that the jobs proposals Obama and economic advisor Alan Krueger were presenting were similiar to old plans that have not produced results. Taylor viewed them as placing too much reliance on government and not enough on the private sector to generate economic growth and jobs.

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Richard Portes of the London Business School provides two good reasons why the EU's decision to adopt the French Banking Federation's proposal for rollovers with 10% interest costs is a serious mistake. It doubles the interest costs from 4-6% to 10% with 2% Greek GDP growth and makes debt servicing untenable. Portes says the real Brady Plan from the 1980's included a 35-40% bondholders haircut. Deals of this type have a precedent- in Mexico in 1988 and in Argentina in 2001 such bond exchanges were soon followed by deals that placed bondholder haricuts on creditors. The lesson from Latin America in the 1980's, says Portes, is that the burdens of servicing a debt of such proportions under onerous conditions only extinguishes the enterprise, investment and productive capabilities of the particular country trying to service that debt, making the debt even less serviceable. See the Wall Street Journal's editorial on this deal which it calls "The French Deception." The terms sound like Greek to the editors leaving a sense that French banks are only saying "gimme." The only benefit achieved may be putting off the problem and avoiding contagion to Portugal and Spain. Yet this is not that much of a benefit when one realizes that the problem has not gone away, and is likely to look much worse six or nine months from now....

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The PBOC makes a 0.25% cut in interest rates and a 0.5% reduction in bank reserve requirement ratios in October 2015, designed to lower financing costs for business and put more liquidity into the economy.

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For the Jan. to Nov. 2011 period Japan shows a trade deficit of 2.3 trillion yen. Analysts expect a trade deficit for the full year- the first since 1980 and setting a new trend as long as the yen stays at a high level. The yen is at 77 yen to the dollar in Jan 2012. Japan still maintains a current account surplus because of returns from investments overseas. The Bank of Japan reports that the economy is expected to contract by 0.4% for the current fiscal year.

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India's current account deficit of 4%- with imports exceeding exports of goods and services- and its small foreign exchange reserves of $293 billion as of April 14, 2012, place serious constraints on building a sizable energy fund to support additional imports of coal and other energy supplies. India is facing severe shortages of coal for the power industry. This places constraints on the country's growth rate. Finance Ministry officials and members of the Planning Commission are looking at setting up a $10 billion energy fund for securing additional supplies of crude oil and coal. Energy imports are placing a strain on India's finances and even the relatively small fund will need money from energy companies in the private sector.

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Portugal's foreign minister, Paulo Portas, resigns in protest against continuity of austerity measures signalled by the selection of Ms. Albuquerque as the new finance minister. Portas's party is part of the coalition of centre right parties in the administration of prime minister, Pedro Passos Coelho. Cuts in public employee pay and spending on health and education, income and sales tax increases, have cut the deficit to 6.4% of GDP by 2013 from about 10% in 2010. The cost of this is an economy that is shrinking more than expected- by 4.8% in 2011 and 2012, and an additional 2.3% in 2013. Unemployment exceeds 17% in 2013. The loan terms negotiated for the 78 billion euro bailout with the IMF and E.U. in 2010, were renegotiated so that the 3% of GDP target for the deficit for 2013 was relaxed to 5.5%. Portas's party and other leaders are calling for a further renegotiation to take into account the economic conditions in Portugal and boost growth. Portas's party opposed the effort to cut labor costs of companies with a large increase in worker social security contributions, a measure seen as counterproductive even by business leaders that was later dropped. In financial markets the 10 year Portugal bond yield increased 0.22% to 6.615%....

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Greg Ip of the WSJ cautions about thinking that the GDP growth of 3% is likely to be achieved with the Trump plan for a corporate tax rate of 15%. He says evidence from Britain and Canada- Britain reducing the tax rate from 30% in 2007 to 19% today, and Canada from 28% in 2000 to 21% in 2004- is disappointing. In Britain the increase in GDP averaged about 0.1% a year. Business investment increases with cut in corporate taxes, and the U.S. corporate tax rate is higher than other advanced countries such as Germany, yet GDP growth includes other factors, such as the business cycle, demographics, productivity growth, aging, technology, regulation, says Ip. It is better if the tax cuts are spread broadly over the population, and tax cuts are offset to a greater extent by savings in other areas, and that tax cuts promote productivity boosting investment, to create enough of a surge in growth above 2%.

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Finance Minister Joaquim Levy, a University of Chicago trained economist, is replaced by planning minister Nelson Barbosa, as the new Finance Minister of Brazil. President Rousseff faces criticism as Brazil's economy contracts and ordinary Brazilians feel the effects of fiscal austerity policies pursued under Levy. Former president Lula da Silva was critical of Levy's policies.