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This report in the WSJ points to Democrats having won consistently 18 states plus District of Columbia adding upto 242 Electoral College votes in every election since 1992. Democrats need 28 more to cross the needed 270 votes. Republicans consistently having 13 states with 102 electoral College votes. Demographic changes in recent years have shifted to where Hillary Clinton may not need to devote resources to Colorado and Virginia because of a more favorable position there.  Carrying Pennsylvania with these 2 states would put Clinton over the 270 required. Vice Presidential candidate for Clinton, Senator Keane is from Virginia and is popular in the state.  Pennsylvania has a long history favoring Democrats. North Carolina has also seen demographic changes favoring Democrats. The Clinton campaign is focussing ads on these states as well as the swing states of Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire, as well as Georgia, Arizona and Utah which are becoming competitive for Democrats. By keeping up the effort in Georgia, Arizona and Utah, Clinton hopes to make Trump divert resources there. Other two swing states are Ohio and Florida, but this WSJ report says Clinton has to win only one of the four swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina to go over 270 and Trump needs all four. Of the 20 media markets Clinton or her super PACs have focussed their ads on 16 are in these 4 states. The Clinton campaign is looking at several alternative routes to 270 Electoral College votes, which gives it more flexibility to plan the campaign.  ...

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Compare AI models for versions v2 v3 by DeepSeek that cost $5.6 million with Anthropic AI model that cost $100 million+, and one gets the order of magnitude in cost for the new DeepSeek China model vs its US counterparts.  The hundreds of billions of dollars that OpenAI and big spenders such as Google, Meta, and Microsoft would have to drain capital markets would be a disaster for workers and families in the US and the standard of living, the infrastructure improvements that don't get done, and the investments in transportation and other vital needs such as schools, education and healthcare that directly impact the cost of living and the standard of quality of life in America and other countries. This is where competing models from China, from India, and from European countries can get us back to where we want to be to continue improving the cost of living and standard of living, quality of life in America for workers and families. This is the choice workers and families made in 2020 and in 2025, rejecting the wasted resources in wars that serve no purpose, and rebuilding the Nation's infrastructure, its water, schools, transportation, healthcare, childcare.  ...

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PM Modi talks about the changes since 2014 and the difference in India now compared to before 2014, during his visit to Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, a place that is close to his heart. His visit is for the "Garib Kalyan Sammelan" for the many schemes launched by his government for the benefit of ordinary people. "Before 2014 there were headlines in the newspapers, debates were taking place on TV channels regarding loot corruption and scams. But time has changed, now the talk is about benefit of government schemes. The World Bank too talks about ease of doing business in India. The Government prior to 2014 regarded corruption as a necessary part of the system. That government succumbed to corruption instead of fighting it. The country then was watching money for schemes being looted instead of going to the needy." With the combination of Jan Dhan, Aadhar and Mobile Modi said money was directly reaching the beneficiary account. Previous governments had accepted that money would not reach the beneficiary and development would be looted. "We have taken the initiative to make 100% benefits reach 100% of the beneficiaries. The government has taken the pledge for reaching the saturation of beneficiaries. 100% empowerment means ending the discrimination, every poor person gets the full benefit of government schemes." "Earlier there was compulsion to suffer because of smoke from the kitchen, today there is the facility to get LPG cylinders from the Ujjwala scheme. Earlier there was the shame of open defecation, today the poor have dignity of toilets. Earlier there was helplessness to raise money for treatment and hospitalization, today the poor have the benefit of Ayushman Bharat." PM Modi talked about how the Northeast was alienated before 2014, and now it was connected by heart and by infrastructure. During the pandemic India sent medicine and vaccines to 150 countries. India stretched out its hand to help other nations. India, he said, has shown that it not only has the potential, it is also a performer. International organizations are accepting that poverty is coming down and there are more facilities for the people. ...

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Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, asked financial markets to give time for individual countries to use political processes to come up with solutions. She said: "It would be ideal and it would be lovely from a market perspective if it was not just currrently but immediately signed, sealed and delivered, done deal, overnight. Unfortunately, for those of you who have the privilege of belonging to democracies, things do not happen in that way and things do take time and have to go through parliamentary processes."

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Ballmer is not able to answer the question about how by taking 2 companies that are slow moving you could combine them and get acceleration- except by saying that 2 people working on search would now be one person after integrating the 2 companies, and one person is freed to work on aspects of the emerging social media and work with other publishers. Is Ballmer too optimistic about such an integration of Yahoo and Microsoft when he says that we (both companies) have fantastic talent and fantastic assets, and this would just get Microsoft the breakthrough in search and advertising its looking for. The integration alone would take a lot of management time especially considering the different cultures. The comparitive freedom of the search companies and the more structured hierarchical approach, some would say regimented approach, at Microsoft. Could microsoft culture stifle Yahoo culture or would Microsoft end up changing its culture, which may be less likely considering that Microsoft and Ballmer are the ones integrating Yahoo. ...

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President Trump on a three day visit to the UK promised a free trade deal with Britain if it made a decisive break with the European Union. Such a free trade deal could take years, offer small benefits compared to the loss of the much larger trading relationship with the European Union. It would face hurdles in passage through Congress because Democrats controlling the House of Representatives see a decisive break with the European Union including the customs union arrangement as affecting the open border in Ireland risking the hard won peace in Northern Ireland.  Prime Minister Theresa May proposed a withdrawal arrangement that would keep the customs union arrangement but has failed to secure the support of a faction within her Conservative party that favors a decisive break from the EU. Such a break that Mr. Trump and Boris Johnson the leader of this faction -and a favored candidate to succeed prime minister May after her resignation- would reduce Britain's GDP over the next 15 years at the higher end of the range of 0.1% to 9% a year. A decisive break called a no deal Brexit with no arrangements or agreement for withdrawal with the EU, would lead to a loss closer to the 9% estimate. British experts to the EU are about $275 billion or 44% of its total exports compared to about $44 billion to the U.S., according to HMS Customs source, showing how important it is for Britain to maintain a close trading relationship with the European Union. British farmers would also face competition through agricultural imports from the U.S. in a free trade deal. During his visit Mr. Trump also stated the National Health Service, everything would be on the table in a free trade deal with the U.S.  Theresa May responded by saying that the NHS would not be open for negotiation to American corporate involvement. Public sensitivity is high on any change to the National Health Service. The trip of president Trump to London in which he supported Boris Johnson as candidate to succeed Theresa May, with discussions between Trump and Johnson for 20 minutes, and a visit by Nigel Farage to the U.S. embassy, and no meeting with Labour party leader Corbyn, only shows the widening of differences on the issue of British withdrawal from the EU making any deal for withdrawal even less likely. Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn now favors a second referendum on whether Britain should leave the EU.  ...

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The transfer of high speed rail technology by Kawasaki to China, starting with deals made in 2004. Kawasaki did this fearing that other competitors would win the business. It transferred the technology believing that it would be years or decades before China would develop its own capabilities and compete with high speed rail manufacturers in Japan and Europe. Kawasaki says the understanding was that the transferred technology would be used inside China, and not for export. China insists it has improved on the technology that was transferred with its own innovations, and it has the right to compete in the world high speed rail market. A high speed rail line between Shanghai and Beijing is being built using Chinese technology by China South Locomotive and Rolling Stock Industry Corporation (CSR), to cut the time from 10 hours to 4 hours. This is part of a network that will be extended to 9700 miles by 2020 according to the government's plan. As part of its export of high speed rail China Railway Construction Corporation is developing a high speed rail line connecting Istanbul and Ankara. China is bidding for contracts in Brazil and in the USA. The issue of transferring technology is becoming a sensitive one for Germany, Japan and the USA. It means transferring the technology as the price of getting a share of the Chinese market, but paying the price later on with competition from Chinese competitors in the same industry. China is developing its own civilian aircraft that would compete with the Boeing 737 and the Airbus 320. Min Zhu, special advisor for the IMF and former deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, told the Wall Street Journal CEO Council, that China's share of advanced machinery manufacturing could reach 30% of global exports by 2020, from 8% today. ...

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India's challenges in securing $1.3 trillion in capital over 5 years for infrastructure spending. This is needed including capital from the private sector to support government funding, so that India can build the infrastructure to create new manufacturing hubs that compete with China as the world's manufacturing workplace. The Biden administration's determination to compete effectively with China using is own supply chain in Asia, and the EU's plan to follow what the Biden administration does, is likely to create a new kind of environment by 2024-2025 that will create a steady flow of capital to India and other parts of Asia to finance this effort for rebuilding its supply chain. The Biden administration is seeking to build a culture change from the old culture pushed by Reagan type free marketers that delivered lost decades in manufacturing and jobs in manufacturing for the US. Biden's State of the Union message was clear- "Folks we're just getting started. We're just getting started." By 2024-2025 the Adani story may just be a footnote to this story as other manufacturers and investors pick up the infrastructure challenges facing the US, EU and India for a new supply chain for the Free World built around self-reliance. The Ukraine war and China incidents such as one that happened recently, will accelerate the rebuilding of the new supply chain on the part of the US and the EU with partners in Asia. And change decades old assumptions and trade relationships over months, not years. ...

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Angela Merkel left Germany dangerously dependent on Russia for energy supplies that may simply be shut off after maintenance on the Nordstream pipeline. She did even worse on China says this report in The Times that says that it leaves Germany on the hook for billions. There are $200 billion of German investments in China and German business concern is snowballing with new restrictions on operations in China and the deteriorating business sentiment. Worse the entire supply chain for solar energy and other renewable energy products to tackle climate change is dependent on Chinese components. Another failure to prepare for the future under different scenarios. And 46% of German business have supply lines that include components made in China. By grossly underestimating the risks of such dangerous dependence on Russia and on China, and ignoring warnings from the US, Merkel has hit Germany's new elected government of Scholz, Baerbock and Habeck with very serious problems that may take the next five to ten years to sort out. On energy and how to build a whole new supply chain in Asia with the US and its allies Japan, India and other countries. The ultimate irony was that Merkel felt that she was the leader of the free world, and a free world that excluded the US and India. Such is folly. And how she was presented as a good leader in the media is today hard to comprehend. ...

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DJT commenting on the prospects for peace in Ukraine on August 19 after the meeting with Putin in Alaska and EU leaders at the White House by August 18. He comments on Russia's problem with European peacekeeping force- “I don’t think it’s going to be a problem, to be honest with you. I think Putin is tired of it. I think they’re all tired of it. But you never know. We’re going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks.”

On the reasons for making this effort to get everybody together to the table- not a Peace Prize as the media says. As usual DJT says something few would expect to hear-

“I want to try and get to Heaven if possible. I’m hearing I’m not doing well. I really hit the bottom of the totem pole. But if I can get to Heaven, this will be one of the reasons.”

 

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Figures from Kiel Institute for World Economy show that European Union aid to Ukraine is nearly double that of the US- $187 billion for EU to $98 billion for US aid. The American Enterprise Institute conservative think tank also confirms EU aid is significantly higher. Trump said US was $250 billion to European Union $100 billion- completely the reverse of the facts. This is one aspect of the debate with Harris that was not fact checked to reach the 67 million watching immediately similar to the FBI correction on crime rates by David Muir.   "Look, we’re in for $250 billion or more because they don’t ask Europe, which is a much bigger beneficiary to getting this thing done than we are. They’re in for $150 billion less because Biden and you don’t have the courage to ask Europe like I did with NATO. They paid billions and billions, hundreds of billions of dollars when I said either you pay up or we’re not going to protect you anymore. So that may be one of the reasons they don’t like me as much as they like weak people. But you take a look at what’s happening. We’re in for $250 to $275 billion. They’re into $100 to $150. They should be forced to equalize.”   ...

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By settling for a 15% tariff Japan was protecting its other industries from the higher tariff of 24-25% proposed earlier. US industry has operated with no assistance from the US government and faces a financial markets structure in the US that is not helpful to American industry making long term investments that overseas makers with support from their governments are able to make. US workers suffered badly over three decades and the ineptitude of previous US presidents in protecting American workers from this situation. The Europeans and the Japanese, South Koreans know this and understand that the US plays the critical role in the free world and without it, without the workers and rural communities of the US, their way of life and freedom will suffer irreparable harm. Japanese PM Ishiba and its business organization Keidanren are focused on implementing the US Japan Trade Agreement mitigating any effects inside Japan. Japan was able to protect it's auto export model to the US from high tariffs settling for a moderate tariff of 15%. A similar agreement was accepted by Germany when Leyen accepted the 15% tariff on German car export model. For decades Germany and Japan have used their auto export model to take a large share of the US market, joined by Korean makers, putting American car makers and their workers at a disadvantage since the 1980's. This creates a level playing field in world trade and is in the interest of workers in the US. ...

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Biden delivers a rousing speech at the State of the Union to the US Congress yesterday. He touches on every aspect on every issue that is important for ease of living, for improving the lives of workers and families, for ordinary Americans, in every state of the Union. NYT says he made his case vigorously and unrelenting throughout the address, leaving no point in doubt on every issue of the action needed and the path to be taken for the American people and for America's leadership in the world.

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This WSJ report shows how retirement looks in America from the financial and lifestyle aspects. The median net worth for people 65-74 years is about $266,000 compared to an average net worth of 5 times that of $1.2 million for this group. This means wealth is highly skewed in America today with a small percentage of high wealth group pushing the average up this much- a result of neglect of American manufacturing that sharply reduced income and savings security of working families, and the impact of laissez faire policies of the administrations since the 1970's with financial crises hurting workers and families. The impact of wars was also borne heavily by workers and families with the neglect of infrastructure and public services in a misallocation of the nation's wealth.  Other points of note are the way time is spent today in retirement with less educational activity or volunteer work than one would imagine, and not enough time for exercize. Only a miniscule amount of time goes to volunteer work (.17 hours) or reading (.57 hours) compared to watching television (4.50 hours) for retirees. Exercize that keeps people healthy one would expect it to go up in retirement only shows .29 hours. Arts and entertainment or cultural activities only 0.05 hours, people are lonelier spending less time with each other with 0.57 hours for socializing and communicating. All showing how Americans in retirement can do better and live better lives by increasing the amount of time they spend in these healthy activities and less on television. Television which is also a sedentary activity takes up 3 times all the other activities essential for healthy living just mentioned combined. Little or no time is spent in meditation, mindfulness or mental wellness, as this grouped under prayer shows only .07 hours or just a few minutes a day.  Small changes that are made in the right direction would do much good for the quality of living for all Americans. Combined with an effort for the renewal of infrastructure and public services this would be an effort in the right direction, contributing to the well being of America.   ...

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French president Macron meets president Putin of Russia for a deescalation of tensions on NATO and Ukraine. Macron for the first time offers an approach that he calls the "Finlandization" of Ukraine. Finland maintained its independence as a neutral country in tensions between US and Russia.  President Biden says the US and Germany are united in their approach, and Nordstream 2 pipeline just completed to supply Germany with Russian gas will be shut down if Russia invades Ukraine. German chancellor Olaf Scholz says little during the crisis and is described as not "audible." Germany has fought two world wars with Russia and seeks a solution that recognizes Russian concerns about NATO yet one that is consistent with the alliance it has with America and concerns of its Polish and Baltic neighbors such as Finland, Sweden, and Lithuania. Meetings are planned for Olaf Scholz of Germany with president Putin of Russia in coming weeks, and with Ukraine in Kiev. ...

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India has one of the tightest lockdowns in the world, Google activity data around retail locations shows mobility down 55% compared to 18% in the U.S. Yet cases are surging and are at a high of 10,000 per day for the last week with deaths up from 600 a day to 1000. 

With consumers preparing for the long run there is less spending and more money going into saving. Sales of everything from shampoo to cars are down. Sales of Suzuki in India are down 83%, and smartphone sales down by 51% in the second quarter of 2020.

GDP is expected to be down by 7% for the fiscal year to March 2021 similar to GDP declines in Europe and the U.S. 

As consumer spending declines the government is planning increasing spending on much needed infrastructure.

 

 

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GE Vernova turbine maker Ford Motor and Dollar General retail replace Apple Tesla Google in stock market growth in June 2025. This is a healthy sign for the US economy.

Lower growth of 0.8% in the first two quarters was expected as the US recalibrates its position in the world economy as a manufacturing powerhouse. Inflation is moderate even with tariffs says Fed chairman Powell -close to 2.4-2.8 percent. Unemployment is low, with no layoffs and companies waiting to invest with the 3B Big Bold Beautiful Tax Cuts Bill provisions on expensing investments 100 percent provision. The attention is not on tariffs as agreements with UK will be followed by EU and Japan. Attention is on the Tax Cuts Bill compromise of Senate and House versions.

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Democratic Party U.S. presidential candidate Bernie Sanders tells a Georgetown University audience that Muslim nations should bear the biggest share of the burden of fighting Islamic State. He cites reports Qatar was spending $200 billion to host the Soccer World Cup in 2022 but providing little to bear the cost of fighting extremism in the Muslim world. Sanders says his focus in running is not on pursuing "reckless adventures abroad, but to rebuild America's strength at home." This contrasted with remarks by Hillary Clinton in New York the same day calling for the U.S. to lead the fight to defeat the the Islamic State terror network after Paris attacks in Nov. 2015, and putting forward a position that contrasts with that of the Obama administration.

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Glenn Kessler goes over the numbers cited by Romney and Obama and finds distortions on both sides. Which leaves voters with going by the records of Romney as governor of Massachusetts and Obama as president during 2004-2008, and their clearly stated policy committments on how they would approach healthcare, Medicare, Social Security, unemployment, incomes, and other issues uppermost on the minds of American voters.

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Steve Jobs of Apple never intended the iPhone to be used as an ubiquitous device that is there all the time with user attention riveted to it. A computer scientist, Prof. Cal Newport of Georgetown University, says the vision of the iPhone presented by Steve Jobs at the Mosconi Center in 2007 was very different from what it has become today. It was an iPod that could make calls, help you listen to music, not a device on which you had to constantly check emails, constantly be on the alert for messages, use for getting instant breaking news you didn't need all the time. At the time in 2007 the App store did not exist and Jobs by design did not focus on apps believing that whatever apps there would be would be better designed to be aesthetically good by Apple engineers. It was an iPod that made calls, a engineer on the team that developed the iPhone at that time tells Newport. Jobs vision was of an iPhone that did a few activities well- helping people listen to music , get directions, make calls. What he did not want to do was to change the rhythm of people's lives. Newport calls it a shame that this vision got somehow diverted and disrupted by what happened afterwards. We have become so used to the constant companion model that we forget its novelty, only a little over 10 years ago none of this existed. As a computer scientist writing about the influence of technology on culture Newport says it is important to remember the magnitude of this unintended shift, to know that Jobs got it right the first time and that it would be better for many of us to return to the minimalist vision for the phone that Jobs espoused. ...

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Lt. Gen Trainor and Michael Gordon describe the situation during the last months of U.S. presence in Iraq. President Obama is ambivalent about the size of the military presence he would like to leave, settling for 3000 troops and a few F-16's from a inital figure of 10,000. Obama sees the presidential election approaching and sets an objective of keeping it minimal. The military cooperation treaty with Iraq has to be approved by a Iraqi parliament with different factions in parliament not likely to approve it. Prime Minister Malliki decides not to move ahead. In the end no military cooperation treaty is signed after 8 years of war and a date is set for a complete withdrawal. Iraqi airspace is used by Iran to ship supplies to Syria's Assad regime, and the U.S. has less leverage in the region as the Arab world goes through a transition to popular government and elections. The Obama administration shifts most of its attention to Afghanistan where the U.S. has no vital stake in the long run compared to the Middle East region, with its large population, growing economies, move towards democracy and meeting the aspirations of hundreds of millions of young people. One Middle Eastern leader says the U.S. had no long term policy under the Obama administration for Iraq, and this applies also to the rest of the Middle East region, and mostly reacted to events as they happened. The Obama administration's committment to the war in Afghanistan, just as it focussed on winding down the war in Iraq, responded to the American public's waning support for the war in Iraq. It did not reduce the total cost of the conflicts because of the initial escalation of the war in Afghanistan and later slow progress towards a negoiated settlement to that conflict. A negotiated settlement is the best the U.S. could achieve, and the best desired objective considering the limited interests in Afghanistan. In Afghanistan most of the dynamics would be determined in the long run by the situation in Pakistan, and India-Pakistan relations, which the U.S. could influence constructively only through dialogue, promoting cooperation between the two countries, and economic relations....

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The relationship of former German chancellor Schroeder with Russian president Putin reflects personal experince with the deaths and destruction of the Second World War. Schroeder lost his father in the war. Putin is the only surviving child, born in 1952, of a mother who barely survived the siege of Leningrad from 1941 to 1944 when 641,000 Russians died of starvation in the city. His mother lost one child in the siege.

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The different views on Ukraine of the Republican party in the US are shown here in this WSJ report. The views range from Rand Paul, Donald Trump to Republican leadership in the Senate under Mitch McConnell. Mr. Trump is also seen as representing an older view of relations with Russia that may no longer exist after the full scale invasion of Ukraine. In this sense Russian tanks invading Ukraine is a watershed event like that of Prague in 1968 and Hungary in 1956. Old views no longer hold. The Cold War began with the Berlin Blockade in 1948- the response of president Harry Truman was the Berlin Airlift supplying the city of Berlin, and some such response is taking shape with the $350 million immediate aid to Ukraine that Biden promised on Feb. 26, within 48 hours of the invasion. The Hungarian revolution in 1956 set the stage for the Cold War after Soviet tanks entered Budapest. The West and the entire free world rallied in 1956 and again in 1968. Some such change is happening now throughout the free world. ...

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This group of 26 leading scientists from Australia, France, Britain and the US are calling for a new international full, open and unrestricted forensic investigation into the origins of the coronavirus in its original location of Wuhan. This happens as scientists on the WHO investigation team in Wuhan say they did not have unrestricted access to conduct their investigation. The Biden administration has restored ties to the World Health Organization after the Trump administration cut ties on this issue of transparency. The Biden administration says transparency is an essential condition for the US as it seeks to continue US participation in WHO. The US, India, France, Britain and other European nations have a long history of participation in WHO and were original founders. Recent flawed election processes at WHO and the lack of effective leadership from western foundations have led to the lack of effective leadership of WHO that prevailed in post war world for the first five decades of the organization. Much of that leadership was from western nations, India and Japan, during a period in which the pandemics were managed limiting their spread from the areas of origin. ...

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PM Modi's Jal Jeevan mission In India for clean tap water for 1.4 billion people even in the Himalayan regions can be seen in the context of water scarcity across the developing world in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with 1 in 2 persons facing water scarcity. And there is further the problem of contaminated water. It shows that it is possible if there is the will to do it and the resources dedicated to do it. Not only is it harmful and reduces health with diseases it considerably undermines women and girls in society. This is shown in ads for Jal Jeevan mission with a mother and her daughter on Indian television with the daughter telling her mother that PM Modi and the government have brought tap water to the village and it need not be carried long distances from wells, the mom incredulous till she realizes it is true and hugs her daughter. It may be the most memorable of television public service ads on Indian  television in a long long time and shows the immense changes in the world's most populous region even overcoming the challenges of the pandemic. ...