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The new national security law put forward for Hong Kong in China gives key powers to Beijing to enforce national security In Hong Kong. A dedicated national security office will be setup in Hong Kong to make assessments, advise and supervise local authorites. This is seen as a move to unravel the legal autonomy Hong Kong had under earlier agreements with the UK that resulted in the transfer to China.

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British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab tells parliament the extradition treaty with Hong Kong is suspended immediately. Earlier Canada and Australia suspended their extradition treaties with Hong Kong. This follows China's tough new security law to quell protests in Hong Kong. Raab told parliament "we will protect our vital interests, we will stand up for our values, and we will hold China to its international obligations."

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Global oil demand is expected to shrink in first quarter 2020, for the first time in 10 years, according to the International Energy Agency. China made up three fourths of growth in oil demand in 2019. The border closures, flight cancellations, and factory closures, are affecting Chinese oil consumption as a result of the coronavirus. China's growth in first quarter is expected to be 3-4% than a year earlier.

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In a video interview the Indian army chief says the tensions at the India China border in the mountainous Himalayan region arise from different perceptions of where the border is, with each side patrolling the area based on its perception of the border. In random situations both sides are patrolling the same area leading to tensions. This has happened before and is likely to happen again. Cross border discussion mechanisms between the two sides have been setup to tackle the situation of patrols.

The Indian border is defined by the McMahon line for India, and set during British times. China has its own perceptions of the border and China was further away from the Indian border till it moved into Tibet in 1950.

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Inflation in China and rising wages are pushing up costs for American manufacturers. The pressure on China, most recently in Congress, is helping to push up the value of the yuan. This combined trend is making it attractive for some manufacturers to bring factories home to the U.S. A trend in the U.S. towards non-unionized labor and the new trend to a two-tier wage level- with lower wages for entry level workers- and the shedding of legacy health care costs, is creating a more cost competitive labor force in the U.S. This extends from older industries such as furniture and auto components to newer industries and technology. The new factories setup in the U.S. use technologies that require a smaller number of workers, in most cases less than half the number of workers that were employed earlier. This adds another element in cost efficiency, though it means fewer jobs are created with new plants.

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China's dollar for dollar retaliation on $16 billion of U.S. imports with 25% tariffs set to take effect August 23 excludes oil which was on the original list. China takes in about one fifth of the total U.S. oil exports, and in the space of 2 years has become the largest importer of U.S. oil. Experts say China could be shooting itself in the foot if it decides to place tariffs on oil imports from U.S. China is dependent on foreign sources for 70% of energy needs and this trend continues. Another reason say analysts is that by keeping oil out of this trade dispute there is more chance that China can continue importing Iranian oil through a waiver  after U.S. sanctions on Iran go into effect in November.

The U.S. also exports higher quality oil that is less polluting and a grade which is used in newer plants.

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China's sharp slowdown in growth to below 4% is likely to reduce inflation in the US, Europe and the rest of the world. This means less demand for oil and gas, other commodities, that China absorbed for the higher growth, in a degree that was disproportionate when compared to the needs of the rest of Asia, Latin America, Africa, the US and Europe. The inflation in other parts of the world with inflation now exceeding 10% in Britain, is driven by the war in Ukraine cutting off supplies of Russian oil, and by supply chain issues. Lower demand for fossil fuels in China could compensate for the loss of Russian oil supplies by adding that much oil and gas to oil markets. Supply chain issues are being resolved though this may take some time. And a new supply chain is being built that replaces the old one that was too stretched out all over the world without emphasis on making at home in the US and Europe, India and other countries. US shale oil companies have not invested in increasing production and this could change adding to oil and gas supplies. Moderating inflation and a winding down of the war in Ukraine could help the economies of the US, Europe, India and other countries. ...

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China's housing developers are increasing the issuance of high yield bonds in 2013. European and American companies have issued $120 billion in junk bonds for Jan-March 2013. Chinese companies issued $8 billion to overseas investors for Jan-March 2013, increasing from $2.3 billion in junk bonds issued in the same period for 2012, according to Dealogic. Yields are dropping. In the U.S. yields have dropped from an historical level of 10% to 6% on junk bonds. The same pattern is seen for China's junk bonds. Yields for bonds issued by Chinese housing developers have dropped from 11-12% to 7-8%. Investors are taking on higher risks on these bonds and the current yields do not reflect higher risk, as the bonds are issued from overseas subsidiaries for foreign investors. As with the bankruptcy of Suntech Power, foreign bondholders could lose everything. These junk bonds are not backed by the company assets in mainland China, and local banks and creditors in China come first in getting their money back. ...

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Atul Aneja looks at Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's comments on the India- China relationship in March 2018.  The comments by Wang Yi show an extraordinary effort by the Foreign Minister to push for better relations. He raises the need for greater dialogue and "mutual trust" to improve the relations. Wang visited India in December during the period of tense relations and the post-Doklam meeting between prime minister Modi and president Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS meeting in Xiamen. India's Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale visited China in Feb. 2017. A China-India economic dialogue is planned for April, 2018, preceded by visits of Commerce Minister Zhong Shan and Guo Yezhou, Vice Minister of the International Department of the Communist Party of China. Compared to the comments by both sides during the Doklam crisis there appears to be a significant change in policy. Wang refers to "more far-sighted leaders" who have realized the importance of the India- China relationship as that between the two largest developing countries each with a population of 1 billion.  In the context of events in early March with pressure from the Trump administration on trade with China- calling for China to come up with plans to reduce the trade surplus in 2018- and the growing influence of Mr. Lighthizer as a trusted advisor of president Trump and exit of Gary Cohn, this could be a strategic move.   ...

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China's population drops and fertility rates drop for a decade now- the median age is 40 years for China compared to 30 for India. Those who think India can never catch up to China lose sight of these factors- a 10 year gap is huge provided India can take it and run. India is moving from a corruption prone, governance deficit, investment deficit, engineers deficit, technology access deficit country to a country that is able to score well in governance, capital, labor and technology eliminating deficits in each sector the way China did.. The younger age China enjoyed in 1990 of 25 years median age when it started industrialization is now being transferred to India in 2026. Why is this important? A younger population with abundant capital, abundant labor, abundant technology access is the ticket to industrialization on a massive scale. India today is on the cusp of massive changes. What happens now is that the computerization and software is also getting more advanced that will accelerate India's Vikshit Bharat effort. This is why Chancellor Merz joining Modi at the Kite festival and committing Germany to a partnership with India, with it the European Union, is so significant today, as it will deliver for both India and Germany, Europe. China births drop from about 10 million to about 8 million and birth rate drops from 6.77 to 5.63 births per thousand people. China population now drops to 1,405 from 1,408 million people. Deaths rose from 10.93 million to 11.31 million.   ...

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How the surveillance state tries to solve the problems of modern living, keeping cities clean and livable, is shown here for the city of Hangzhou in China. With growth slowing Chinese society is evolving in a different direction with the government trying to solve the problems of modern living such as traffic congestion, food safety, missing children, and sanitation, using AI and sensor technology, and not promising a ever growing economy.

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After making headlines the issue of TikTok is no longer making news. Here is what has happened since- TikTok took the case to the Supreme Court after the Biden Administration's effort to bring it under US security with American ownership. The Supreme Court ruled in favor of the government. Social media helped Republicans and DJT in the election. DJT wanted TiTok to be an American company if it was to operate in US. China was opposed to this and would not allow ByteDance the owner of TikTok negotiate this-leading to an impasse. The DJT administration worked out a relationship  with China by September 2025 following tit for tat tariffs in May 2025. Xi's strategy was to put rare earths on the table after it had gained a 90% monopoly on rare earths processing technologies and supplies. Some supplies include a site in Greenland, so that the Greenland issue as opponents of US acquisition have made appear is not fiction. DJT Administration pulled back and negotiated a deal with China but realized how the US had left key gaps in its security which is why the Greenland issue came up in 2025. Similar to how Democrat president Harry Truman had done as the Soviets expanded influence in Greece and Turkey by 1948. Little of this making it to almost the entire US press and the entire European press, including Democrat Harry Truman's 1947 offer of $100 million ($1.5 billion in 2026) for Greenland, rights, title and ownership similar to Alaska purchase by Seward, and US Virgin Islands purchase in 1916 from Denmark.   The deal makes TikTok an American/ China investor run company with Byte Dance ownership of 20%, Oracle 15%, Silverlake US equity firm 15%, Abu Dhabhi (UK type) MGX 15%, and prior investors 30%. Prior investors are General Atlantic, SIG, Steve Case's Revolution with JD Vance having equity, Dragoneer, NJJ Capital. The company now valued at $20 billion based on 200 million US users. Yet this does not address the dangers and damage done by social media hours for youth in the US, endless hours from education shifted to phones and social media videos. Australia has banned it for under 16 year olds, UK parliament has voted to ban, French parliament has also voted for a ban, China has strict rules that protect its youth for use specifying hours and restrictions, leaving the US and India, Brazil vulnerable to dangers of social media. Strictly speaking You Tube is considered as social media even though it serves an information function, Facebook and TikTok are where a lot of the damage to education takes place in social media. US is entirely leaving its young people especially women unprotected. Once the fentanyl issue is tackled attention will again focus on these dangers to creating good citizens in the US  with civic education if democracy is to be preserved, something endless numbers of lobbyists- which even in Teddy Roosevelt's and FDR's, JFK's days have opposed- will again oppose.     ...

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Britain and India are seen as the most attractive destinations for foreign investment after the US, Germany and China. This is true after Brexit. In recent years Britain and India have made much progress in becoming investment destinations.

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US Russia relations improve in 2025. The new national security document of US put out by the DJT Administration says that Russia is not a threat.  It sticks to migration and western identities when facing civilizational erasure over next two decades as key threats to the US. It poses questions for the European Union, Germany and France, yet also offers away out of the "mess" in Ukraine with the Russians saying NATO was too close to their borders as the real issue, and the US not aligning itself with NATO reducing big power tensions including nuclear arsenal expansion. Germany rebuilding the Bundeswehr and it's military offers a rebalancing of the military situation yet is not the long term solution to the Ukraine problem, NATO limiting it's role and the US limiting it's role in NATO offers a solution that preserves the long term interests of Western Europe(Germany, France, Italy, UK, Spain) and preserves world peace and dialogue. It also promotes integration of India and Russia into the world trade and world economy as it diversifies from the dominance of China in world trade and the world economy of the last 20 years of free trade that deindustrialized US and Europe. What this national security document does not say is that China's dominance in world trade and the errors of the US, Europe, Japan, Russia, India in world trading relationships and their economic approach that made this possible is the central issue and calls for diversification of supply channels in the world economy. This shifts the direction of the world in a peaceful direction where the US, Japan and Europe, India can compete in economic growth and trade with China on equal terms. ...

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Samuelson says the bill in the U.S. Senate is symbolic because it allows companies to cite the undervalued renminbi as an illegal subsidy and have the Commerce Department impose duties on Chinese products. This would have to be done on a case by case basis, making it largely ineffective in dealing with the large trade deficit with China. He also cites the differences among economists that show a range between 1 million and 2.8 million jobs lost. The 2.8 million jobs estimate is from the Economic Policy Institute for the period 2001-2010. The 1 million is an estimate for 1990-2007, which estimates a loss of quarter of all manufacturing jobs. By WTO rules subsidies that are not targeted at specific industries or firms are allowed, according to lawyers. Which means China could appeal to the WTO, and impose retaliatory duties. In the meantime the trade deficit with China, with imports of $364 billion in 2010, and $86 billion in exports, would remain largely unaffected. This is the reason some Senators, including Republican Orrin Hatch (Utah), see this move as political posturing by President Obama and the Democrats, because the administration has no new proposals to address the trade deficit and the gradual erosion of America's manufacturing base. Samuelson cites Arvind Subramanium of the Peterson Institute, and his book "Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance." Subramanium says what is at stake is not a temporary imbalance in world trade a happened with Japan in the 1980's, but a gradual shift to a system of trade in which China has preferential access to raw materials (oil, grain, minerals), subsidizes exports in new industries as it moves upscale from shoes and textiles to automobiles, aircraft and alternative energy, and changes the very nature of the global trading system as it becomes the dominant trading nation in the world. By Subramanium's estimate China's share of global trade increased from 1.6% to 9.8% in the 2 decades from 1990 to 2010. In two more decades he estimates China could increase this to 15% of global trade, significantly larger than the U.S. In a response to Congressmen, businessmen and policymakers wary of starting a trade war, Samuelson says there already is a trade war as a "fixed" system of trade undermines America's manufacturing and industrial base. The only difference being that today only one side is fighting that war, and America is slow to grasp the implications or its policymakers are clueless how to respond....

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A big hurdle for local brands in China is the Chinese consumer's interest and respect for foreign brands. Asked about local brands buyers say they can't think of any, or say Chinese brands are shoddy in quality and value. Brands such as Haier in consumer appliances and Lenovo in tech are an exception. During the big surge in consumer sales in the last two decades Chinese companies producing local brands thought it adequate to simply imitate foreign brand names rather than take the difficult route of establishing the credibility of their own brand- an effort which might take years. Often the foreign name was changed slightly to keep the resemblance but mean something positive to Chinese consumers in the local language. Common are names such as Adidos, Hike, Cnoverse and Fuma for sneakers. Clio Coste keeps the connection to Lacoste with its crocodile logo. Coca Cola in Chinese is Kekoulele, translated to mean Tasty Fun. Only now are local companies giving serious attention to creating long term brand entity and image. The serious attention to brand names and branding comes at a time when China increasingly depends on consumer sales to power the economy with the decline in real estate and slower manufacturing. For the 11 months of 2014 retail sales were up 12 percent over the prior year period to $3.8 trillion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. ...

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The supply chain chaos that is not good for American or European companies is shown here and how it is good only for warehouses that store these products for long periods. In March just 7% of the sea shipments from Asia to North America arrived on time, for Europe this was just 6%. This WSJ report says even big companies can expect to pay 5 times the freight rate than in 2019. New trouble looms in the form of more lockdowns in China with its zero covid policy and wage negotiations with dockworkers in Los Angeles and Long Beach. Stockpiling is one way to ensure availability which means additional costs. Vacancy rates for logistics property are at 4% in the US and 3.5% in Europe. All this points to the need for reshoring and bringing manufacturing back home. Companies need to invest $1 trillion over 5 years to relocate all foreign manufacturing based in China that is for markets in US, Europe and other parts of the world. As companies make plans for the shift to bring manufacturing back home, half the money going into real estate is still going to logistics properties and industrial logistics in the meantime, says this WSJ report ...

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The 800 foot Chinese ocean carrier Zhen Hua 29 sails into Kingston, Jamaica, from Shanghai on the long route with 5 cranes in epic 3 months voyage through the Indian Ocean around Mozambique- the last of the globalization voyages. As globalization dims these are the last of these voyages. US policy is for its control of the Panama Canal, the Monroe Doctrine in the western hemisphere, pushing out a globalization that hurt American industry and jobs in the USA. China continues on with its surplus capacity make for export policy, the US wants out from these imports, and the EU is wary of imports dependence.  Gemany's Foreign ministry under Wadephul is forming a commission to investigate German dependence on China made products. This is the last of the globalization that started with Clinton, and went on with Bush and Obama, wrecking huge parts of the American industrial base. Cranes- no longer made in the USA, one by one, including ships- no longer made in the USA. The great shipyards of Britain and the US languishing in disrepair! ...

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The issues related to India's borders all hinge on Tibet says the Council on Foreign Relations. Sardar Patel and Nehru had differences of their own on whether the McMahon Line set by the British in a treaty with Tibet as an independent country was the border with Tibet or the border with China.  Between 1913 and 1950 Tibet was an independent country, with an Indian High commissioner in Lhasa between 1947 and 1950. After the Cold War set in and China and the Soviet Union fought to defend the rights of colonial peoples the U.S. and Britain did not recognize Tibet as a part of China. Nehru simply remained with the British status quo of the McMahon line as the Indian border with Tibet, without any clear acceptance  of the invasion of Tibet in 1950 by China, yet accepting the new status quo after the invasion, differing from Sardar Patel on the issue. This is why no clear picture emerges from looking at the official positions of the two countries, and a better understanding can be gained by looking at the border issue from the Council of Foreign Relations in the U.S.   Essentially the border issue is not beneficial for what it gives back to each of the two countries. China sees itself rejecting the period of its weakness during the Japanese invasion so that it reasserts its position to borders that stretch outside where Chinese people live. India sees itself rejecting the weakness during the British period and the early post British period during which India was occupied with the issues relating to partition of British India and the partition of Kashmir. This is why the Council on Foreign Relations can provide a better understanding from and independent perspective.  Both sides have little to gain. China by being at the Tibetan border puts itself in a position where it has little to gain being on the border with a large rapidly industrializing country with a population of over 1 billion.  At over 4000 metres or 20,000 feet the territory and landscape is not one that humans can adapt too in any way, except for a few military personnel doing their term of duty of 6-12 months from India or China. China is even further away from the border as it is a remote border from Beijing, Shanghai, Canton or Chengdu, thousands of kilometres when it is just 8 hours from Srinagar by highway to Leh, Ladakh, and the Nepalese border very close to the Bihar state in India. The very distance suggests remoteness, with customs traditions in the region very different from that in China, suggesting very little connection between Beijing near Mongolia and Tibet or Ladakh very close to India by road or rail. To get some idea how close the Tibet border is to India consider that Rasuwagadhi Fort border point between Nepal and Tibet is only 127 miles by road from Kathmandu. The distance by rail from the Indian border in Bihar to the Nepalese border is only 34 kilometres with a new upgraded rail connection. Being this close India is likely to upgrade infrastructure throughout the northeast region as it upgrades infrastructure, roads and bridges and rail throughout India at an accelerated pace for economic development.     ...

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Taiwanese contract manufacturer Hon Hai is moving quickly to address higher costs for workers at its manufacturing sites in coastal regions of China. After extensive media coverage of conditions at Foxconn factories, a number of suicides, and Chinese government policy that encouraged higher wages for workers in foriegn owned plants, Foxconn has moved to sharply increase wages at its plants. By the end of 2011 production in cities in the interior of China- Chengdu, Chongqing, and Wuhan, where costs are one third less- will be 25% of production, up from 10% in 2010. By 2012, this will be up to 50% of Foxconn's production, according to Yuanta Securities of Taipei. Hon Hai is lowering dividends to finance the shift. Fourth quarter 2010 earnings of Hon Hai were $742 million, down 26% over the prior year, even though revenues went up by 56% to $33.1 billon- reflecting the higher costs. Hon Hai's stock is down 20% in the past year on the Taipei stock exchange. Other locations being considered by Hon Hai are Brazil, Turkey and Slovakia. Brazil's President Dilma Roussef, said that Foxconn is considering a $12 billion plan for Brazil. Hon Hai is the only manufacturer of Apple iPads and one of two manufacturers of the iPhone....

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NYT reporting on the wealth of China's elite is followed by restrictions on journalists. Visa restrictions were eased for students, tourists and business travellers, but tightenend for journalists under the Jinping administration in 2014. This NYT editorial says NYT will not succumb to pressures from the U.S. or any government, including China, to change the high standards of reporting, and will continue to meet the fair reporting needs of its readers worldwide.

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Lou Jiwei chairman of China Investment Corporation met with Treasury officials in Washington to give reassurances that China's sovereign wealth fund would invest as a portfolio investor and be a good citizen when it comes to investing in the USA. He reiterated the pledge by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao that the Chinese government would not interfere in the operations of the fund, and that the fund would have its own corporate governance structure. He also met with officials of the IMF who are drawing up a code of "best practices" for sovereign wealth funds. Following the Chinese experience with the Unocal deal and the experience of Dubai in a deal to buy a company that manages USA ports, both deals falling apart on concerns in the media and Congress, the Chinese and the Persian Gulf sovereign funds have become more savy and aware of these concerns and tried to handle them better. They also point out that in the case of the financial institutions caught in the US mortgage securities crisis, it is these companies like Morgan Stanley and Citigroup that have come to them, to China, to Persian Gulf countries and to Singapore and other countries, asking them to invest for small stakes in the companies. Their line goes like this- if you have second thoughts about our investment we will invest elsewhere in other countries. Another facet of this is that these portfolio investments are spread out between many different countries sovereign wealth funds, and the possible influence is small in management decisions. China Investment Corporation has $200 billion in assets. Lou says that only a third would be invested to buy foreign assets, about $70 billion. The other two thirds would be used to support China's three large commercial bank balance sheets. ...

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Stephen Bosworth was appointed by Hillary Clinton as U.S. Representative for North Korea Policy. He is one of America's best diplomats who served in several postings overseas before becoming Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts. Prof. Drezner points to the work done by Bosworth in keeping dialogue with North Korea alive, till a solution can be found. He also cites Chinese analysts who say pressuring China comes from a worn playbook, that China would not agree to reunification on the Korean peninsula, to bring U.S. influence right up to its borders. South Koreans have been wary of reunification because of the decade long experience of integrating East Germany. As a result new solutions need to be found and the valuable work of diplomats like Bosworth is badly needed to keep dialogue alive for a solution to be found.

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China is going through a long period of debt reduction or deleveraging in which income is diverted to payoff debt and debt reduction. Debt has piled up at local governments, households, and the private sector during the period of heavy borrowing to expand the economy and build infrastructure. BIS data shows total debt in China at 295% of GDP in September 2022 compared to 257% in the US and 258% in the Eurozone. This report in WSJ says consumers are hoarding cash and refusing to take out new loans, private businesses are barely investing, and local governments are paring down debt for all expenses including worker's salaries and roads.

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The Waldorf was built in 1931 by Hilton Hotels founder Conrad Hilton. After a century of use it was outdated and needed major repairs. In 2014 Hilton decided to sell it and hired Blackstone advisors who said it would get about $1 billion. China had just allowed Chinese to buy foreign assets in 2014, and a Chinese founder of a regional insurance company Anbang Group offered $1.9 billion when Hilton knowing that China was keen in acquiring foreign assets priced it at $2 billion. In 2017 only three years later China decided to pull back from allowing private investments of this kind, Anbang's Wu was arrested for business practices. 2017 was the time when Xi at the 19th  Communist CCP Party Congress put forward his ideas for "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" and made it part of China's Constitution, and launched anti-corruption drive against corrupt business practices. The Waldorf was taken over in this drive by Chinese government. For 10 years China held onto the property and built 375 900 square feet condos in the Waldorf for $6 billion and 375 hotel rooms by the time it reopened in 2025. Was it worth it? Even if China could get $3.2 million for each of 375  900 square foot condos this would generate $1.1 billion. It would take 8 years to generate the remaining $900 million of the $2 billion paid for the Waldorf by Anbang's founder Wu if the Waldorf's 375 rooms were rented out for $1000 a night for 300 days. China would still be at a loss for $6 billion. This type of extravagant business investments characterized Japan in the 1980's and 1990's leading to the gradual stagnation in Japan's economy as other countries caught up in quality control and other production efficiency practices using new IT technologies. China looks to be following the Japanese example with infrastructure overbuilding. The US and EU will catch up in the next wave of investment in America and Europe by 2030 and other Asian economies such as India will also catch up with China. Investment productivity will play a part, new technologies will play a part, and a return of manufacturing to the US and EU, a build of India's manufacturing and logistics will play a part. ...