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China's housing developers are increasing the issuance of high yield bonds in 2013. European and American companies have issued $120 billion in junk bonds for Jan-March 2013. Chinese companies issued $8 billion to overseas investors for Jan-March 2013, increasing from $2.3 billion in junk bonds issued in the same period for 2012, according to Dealogic. Yields are dropping. In the U.S. yields have dropped from an historical level of 10% to 6% on junk bonds. The same pattern is seen for China's junk bonds. Yields for bonds issued by Chinese housing developers have dropped from 11-12% to 7-8%. Investors are taking on higher risks on these bonds and the current yields do not reflect higher risk, as the bonds are issued from overseas subsidiaries for foreign investors. As with the bankruptcy of Suntech Power, foreign bondholders could lose everything. These junk bonds are not backed by the company assets in mainland China, and local banks and creditors in China come first in getting their money back. ...

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British MP raises issue of Arab Gulf countries providing 37% of China's oil imports, excluding Iraq 27%, vs 11% from Iran and 20% from Russia- 2024 US EIA. Tom Tugendhat says China has to balance its interests in the region after the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, between Iran, Gulf monarchies, and Russia. China also faces a more credible choice of accelerating the development of renewable energy in the same way that India and the European Union face. US will act as a supplier of last resort  adding Venezuelan and other supplies but temporarily as the entire Middle East region poses quandaries for China, the US, and India, European Union. The quandary stems from the irreconciliable differences between religious sects in the region, post 1950 ideological and religious militancy,  in which neither China, India, the US, Russia or the European Union wants to get drawn into after 5 decades of bitter experience in the Middle East.

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Edsall in the NYT shows how mixed race neighborhoods are quietly emerging in the US in many states changing the way suburbs look now. It will also change the way Americans elect representatives to assemblies and the US Congress.

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Jonas Vinegaard of Denmark settles the race with a fast time working himself upto near exhaustion and adding 7 minutes to his lead during the trials in the 17th stage of the Tour de France. From 10 seconds in earlier stages of the cycling race in Basque Spain across the Pyrenees mountains and into France Slovenian cyclist Pogacar was only 10 seconds behind Vinegaard. With this time in the trials and putting up a great effort in the Alps near Geneva Vinegaard now has a 10 minute lead over Pogacar, enough for him to make it to Paris without the pressure that would otherwise be seen. Vinegaard shows a new kind of resilience, strength, strategy and skills that has endeared him with a new generation of cycling enthusiasts, with a humility that comes naturally for him.

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Because India is still largely rural with about 65% of the population in the countryside rural poverty is a matter of huge importance. In a country of a billion people this is easily about 600-650 million people the vast majority of the world's poor. Though low inflation in agricultural produce and in agricultural wages have increased concern for rural poverty in India there are changes in multiple dimensions that have raised the quality of living in a big way. There is a major thrust in government programs directed at multiple levels for clean India, housing healthcare, cooking gas, electricity, banking, in the rural villages. About 4 million homes are built annually with government assistance and investment in rural programs has more than doubled in the last 7 years.  The National Food Security programs NFGSA guarantees purchases of rice and wheat at very low prices -set at 2 rupees per kilogram of wheat and  3 rupees per kilogram of rice or about $0.03 per kilogram.  This reduces the pressure on migration to cities making cities less inhabitable and finding it hard to cope as in countries like Indonesia, Philippines and in Africa. It gives more time for urbanization to take place in a better way as more resources and infrastructure is created for urbanization. Some states in India are about 50% urbanized with Tamilnadu (Madras or Chennai),  and Kerala (Cochin, Thiruvanathapuram) in the south and Maharashtra (Bombay or Mumbai) and Gujarat (Ahmedbad) in the north west, are at about 50% urbanization rate. The low inflation rate for agricultural wages affecting farm incomes combined with contributions by rural people to complement government contributions for housing, healthcare,  reduces the mount of money available for consumer spending in rural areas, affecting the economy. A problem in the short run, but with synergistic changes across multiple dimensions pushing the country forward across urban and rural areas. With the huge urban infrastructure spending increases creating more space for economic growth across the country. There is a general sense that for development a multi dimensional approach is needed, and a rising tide lift all boats as India urbanizes like China has done in the last 20 years. ...

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Germany's Koch Institute says the number of patients admitted to hospitals is 2.68 in last week (October third week ) compared to December 2020 when it was 15.5. The national rate of cases per 100,000 reached 95. 100 per 100,000 was the benchmark for lockdowns but this no longer is the case as hospitalizations are down with the high percentage of fully vaccinated. 

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Issues of work-life balance are growing for doctors as more doctors ages 40-54 years face burnout or negative effects on health. Nearly half of doctors in the U.S. 40-54 years of age in a survey of 15,000 physicians report feeling burned out from work hours and administrative tasks. Younger doctors 25-39 years, and older ones 55-73 years also reported high rate of burnout at 38% and 39%. Overall for all physicians about half of all physicians said they would take a substantial pay cut to get a better work-life balance. What this survey and report by Medscape shows is that no age group, career stage, gender or specialty is immune to this problem, says Colin West, professor of Medicine and researcher on physician well being at the Mayo Clinic.

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Washington Post calls a Netherlands unrealized capital gains tax of 36% unfair. The legislation was passed in lower house of parliament. Unrealized capital losses could be used to offset gains in future years under this legislation. The US only taxes capital gains after they are realized and at 15% or 20% for long term gains and a 4% added tax for high income persons. The 36% tax would apply to all who own stocks or bonds not just the wealthy.

In Netherlands the average take of the ogvernment is 3%% compared to 30% in US. Healthcare costs are split 65% 45% between the government and average worker, and mostly all (84% of workers) get additional coverage. The value added tax rate VAT is 21% in Netherlands about 3 times the US sales tax of 6-7%. And the Netherlands is in the EU a relatively moderate tax country compared to France and UK.

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Swing in districts where Spanish is spoken at home for Democrats was large in 2025 governors races in Virginia and New Jersey, the swing was smaller in districts where English was spoken in districts where Hispanics make up a larger part of the voter base. This helped Democrats in the 2 governors races and was about cost of living and other concerns.

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Nine months of parental leave and government effort briefly boosted the birthrate in Sweden to above 1.6 and above the replacement rate, then by the 1990's it went below the replacement rate. Sweden now has parental leave at 16 months and extraordinary benefits for mothers and parents. This shows that once the birthrate drops below the replacement rate it stays below the replacement rate even after extraordinary government effort. This is true for Australia and other countries in Europe.

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Saudi Arabia continued to follow a policy of high oil production in 2016, and reported that it produced 10.67 million barrels a day in July 2016. Iran is producing at a pre-sanction level of 4 million barrels a day. 2017 oil demand prediction by OPEC is at growth of 1.15 million barrels a day. Experts says that the interests of Iran and the Saudis may be converging to reduce production as they face low oil prices. Iran needs to make large investments and Saudis face budget cuts with low oil prices. They point to this cooperation being temporary as there are issues of competing politics in the region, and beyond that both countries seek to expand their market share.

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A boost in supply in 2024 after the pandemic squeezed supply chains is likely to increase the US growth rate by summer to 4.9%. This is not expected to increase inflation which is down to 2.8% by November 2023, because of higher productivity and higher labor participation rate. The labor participation rate has reached a high of 83.5% not reached since 2001. The Fed sees this as a temporary jump in the growth rate that does not induce inflation so that no Fed action is necessary.

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Australian actor Hugh Jackman is shown here in The Guardian advocating working hard but not too hard, the idea being that if you work at 85% of your capacity, you will be more relaxed and perform much better. Sports athletes do this. In the French cycling race Tour de France some cyclists practice with much lighter routines to do their best the following day in the actual races. The idea is doing what brings out the best in you. There is also a principle behind this. Intel's founder Andy Grove called it the "slack" principle in which by having slack in your daily routine when something suddenly came up to be done one could accomodate it easily and not waste horrendous amounts of energy tackling the chaotic situation when one tried to do it crossing the 100% of your capacity to do it to reach 101% or 102%. At that point one is not at one's productive best but deteriorating in quality of work. The slack could be 5% leaving an additional slack of 10% for yourself to do things that give your mind a rest which is what sports athletes and productive workers do. In actual practice the work is done in less time with slack because you can concentrate better which means you are getting more done than before this 85% approach. ...

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Both the EU and US see another wake up call from China's position of on again off again diplomacy using rare earth as a bargaining chip. US and China separately and in coordination work to develop policy and actions to secure access to rare earth and technologies that is independent of China. China sees it's action on rare earth diplomacy as robust diplomacy in response to DJT tariffs, yet this is getting the US to move quickly to develop its own rare earth access including working with Australia, and taking action to support US industry. The European Union is not far behind in doing the same. This and the action taken by the US to restructure world trade for a level playing field, and getting Asian partners to acknowledge their abuse of the international trading system for two decades and accept some level of temporary tariffs is changing world trade. The US can regain the position it has held for the better part of the period 1900-2000, overcoming periods that included the rise of Russia and Japan after 1945. ...

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Inflation risks are a major concern of Bernake and the Fed making interest rate cuts rather unlikely in the near future.

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Analysts say expect some defaults of banks and financial institutions especially in U.S. oil producing states with oil prices below $50 a barrel in 2015.

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Ford and Hyundai are the bright spots as industry sales drop to aseasonally adjusted rate of 9.2 million vehicles accoring to Autodata. Ford sales declined only by 5% and Hyundai increased by27%. GM down 45% and Chrysler down 42.1%.Dealerships had a 29 day supply of cars and trucks at the end of August lowest since at least 1975 according to WardsAuto.com.