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Problems facing S. Africa include the high unemployment rate of 24% and the funding of social grant programs for the unemployed. As it stands today with the increase in population and the economy unable to create enough jobs, there are more people on the social grant program (similiar to welfare, disability and social security payments in the U.S.), than there are people working. Only 10% of S. Africans pay taxes which starts at 120,000 rand, or about $15,230. The numbers of people on social grant payments are growing at five times the rate of people added for income tax payments. And there is concern about the tax base's ability to sustain this in the future as population grows. The awards are now at 3% of GDP or $13.4 billion.

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Rich calls Obama's speech for all its apparent thoughfulness and logic, a failure in its mission of coming up with a way to tackle Afghanistan and Pakistan. It did not grapple with the real issue and complexity of these places. He says the rigorous analysis failed and what Obama is ending up with is a too clever by half holding action which lacks credibility becuase the Karzai regime lacks credibility, and the American people have serious doubts of the wisdom of increased involvement. Worse it lacks acredible exit strategy for all the emphasis on early withdrawal. Making some calculations with Petraeus's field manual Rich comes up with a force of 586,000 that would be needed for a proper counterinsurgency in Afghnistan for its population of 28.4 million. But America still would have only less than one fourth of this number in the vast mountainous terrain of Afghnistan, especially when the government it is backing has seriously alienated its own people. So isn't it just as possible that McChrystal and Gates have made a serious error, that the surge that worked in Iraq was based on apeculiar topography that is absent here, which means even more troops not awithdrawal is likely a year from now? He points out that, as Fred Kaplan had pointed out in Slate, that the idea that the coaltiion partners are increasing their share of the burden is an illusion, as America's new share of allied troops with the surge will be 70% compared to 50% when the Bush administration left office. But what he finds most disingenuous is the idea that there will be no sacrifices in economic terms for America, that life can just go on like before, even as the cost of the war will shortchange urgent economic priorities at home and even gut alot of the domestic needs. This was missing in the Obama presentation....

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Scott Shane says no one including Mr Obama talked about Pashtun-land or Pastunistan which comprises 12 million people in Afghnaistan and 27 million on the Pakistan side of the border. This is basically where the war is being fought and the bases are on the Pakistani side. He points to the risks for an exit strategy, as this means shifting the balance in America's favor, which depends mainly on getting the popular nationalistic sentiment support for the Pastun Taliban to erode. With aweak partner alienating the Afghan people the chances for eroding that popular support are not good. Just compare Maliki and the Shiite majority support for the government and Karzai's corrupt and unpopular government, and you see the difference between one surge and the other. Compare the localized fight in Iraq's Anbar desert type flat open areas with a vast mountainous area and popular sentiment of supporting fellow Muslims of the Taliban in Pakistan, and one can see that the two are vastly different. ...

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BBC's Europe Editor Katya Adler talks to EU officials and gives this assessment of how the situation in Britain after the elections looks from the European Union. The elections in France with pro-EU Macron winning with a large majority, the increasing support for Angela Merkel in Germany, the drubbing for the Five Star Movement in Italy, all point to increasing confidence in the EU, and willingness to let Britain sort its mess out while the EU focusses on more pressing issues. Adler calls the first day of talks on Brexit a Mad Hatters Tea Party, showing how Britain is seen in the EU as having a huge complicated mess to sort out. British politicians are seen from the outside as having ruffled up the electorate on migration, the European Court of Justice and other issues, just to make their own points and for their own ends, not necessarily having the best interests of Britain in mind.

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French president Hollande's approval ratings dropped to a new low of 12% in a survey by TNS Sofres. In 2013 Hollande's approval ratings dropped to 26% before increasing to 30% after the Charlie Hebdo terrorist attacks in Jan. 2015. The recent terrorist attacks, France's high unemployment rate, his appearance of being indecisive, and the new labor law, have increased Hollande's unpopularity. As a result his colleague in the Socialist Party, prime minister Manuel Valls, now plays an important role in the administration. Middle class workers 35-49 years are the group where Hollande does poorly. Former president Sarkozy's rating never dropped below 30%. Compared to Hollande, Merkel of Germany has an approval rating that is far better at 54% and Obama in the U.S. of 56%. Merkel has achieved this following the differences in Germany over letting in large numbers of immigrants, and Obama after 8 years in office and differences in the Democratic Party on trade and economic policy. Trudeau in Canada has an approval rating of 63%. ...

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France's Foreign Minister Ayrault says of Boris Johnson: "He lied a lot to the British. Now, he is the one with his back against the wall." He sees missing in Johnson the "clear, credible and reliable" person with whom he can negotiate. Ray Stegner, deputy chairman of Germay's Social Democrat Party says "May looks weaker after such a choice of personnel. Now he is negotiating Brexit. Enjoy the trip." In China he is seen as a celebrity not a serious person. Bildt, ZDF, see in this a part of British humor. Jurgen Hardt, foreign policy spokesman for Christian Democrats Party in Germany had a different take on Johnson- seeing this as an astute move because if the government one day comes to conclude that Brexit should not be completed then having Johnson on board to explain it to the people would guarantee support in her party and with the people of England. In her first speech May emphasized that she was a "Unionist." Her first important meeting was with Nicola Sturgeon of Scotland and made Scotland's agreement necessary before invoking Article 50. Her talk of "burning injustices" for the poor and the underprivileged also goes to address the root of the problems behind the Leave vote. By having Johnson on board she can focus on the issues that really matter and which were on the minds of people in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland- to ensure that the economic system works for all.   ...

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A sobering view of international conflicts looking at the ones in the English experience, with the Scots and the Irish. The conflict with the Scots actually went on from 1296 when King Edward I tried to claim the throne of Scotland with resistance from William Wallace and Robert Bruce, with terrorist tactics, frequent burning, looting and killing on both sides. And many battles that were inconclusive. The accession of Scottish person to the English throne as James I did not end it and it was'nt till 1745 till it ended. A referendum was held in the 18th century in Scotland and the commercial interests of Glasgow and Edinburgh prevailed in the end. Scotland saw the rich opportunities in trade and commerce from the expanding British Empire. Something that can be seen in exhibits at the Museum of Scotland in Edinburgh. In this sense political rapprochment fails when the time is not ripe, and when there are other changes in society and economy things can change enough to create an entirely new situation in which old conflicts simply take a backseat to something else. For Ireland the economic changes of the recent years creating a vibrant Irish economy gives Ireland enough confidence in itself to work with England, and set things on the path to peaceful development on the Irish isle. ...

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The role of the Judiciary in Pakistan in acting as a check on corruption in the Zardari government, and a check on the army's interference in Pakistan's democratic process. For the first time in Pakistan's history a peaceful tranistion between elected governments is planned in 2013.

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The U.S. House of Representatives votes 285-144 to suspend the debt ceiling till Feb. 7, 2014. The deal forged in the Senate by Democrat Reid and Republican McConnell passed in th Senate by 81-18. The U.S. stock markets closed with the DJIA at 15374, up 1.6% compared to Sept 30 when the government shutdown began. The Republicans opposing the passage outnumbered those supporting it 144 to 87 in the House of Representatives. Because this was a repeat of similiar failure to reach agreement and last minute deals in 2012 and 2011 the equity markets appear to have taken the conflict between the two parties in stride.

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Informed sources say Portugal will require 90 billion euros ($129 billion) in a bailout package from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Of this 10 billion euros will be needed in June 2011. Germany's finance minister Schauble, said the austerity program that is part of the bailout will be put together in the next 2-3 weeks with the help of the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the IMF. The bailout will probably be structured in several phases coming before and after June 5 elections in Portugal. The current Socrates administration and a new administration will share responsibility in negotiations for the deal. The opposition Social Democrats who are front runners supported by 39% of the voters and the CDS party with 7%, both support the current government's bailout request. A Social Democrats-CDS coalition is likely after the June elections. The leader of the Social Democrats, Pedro Coelho, is involved in the negotiations. The crisis came to this point after Portuguese banks-which were among the principal buyers of government debt- decided to stop buying additional governmet debt. This meant the government with low cash reserves had little chance of meeting the 4.9 billion euros in debt repayments in June, after a 4.2 billion euro debt repayment in April. The Portuguese government had preferred a bridge loan from the EU but the EU declined this request, insisting on austerity measures. A recent effort by the Socrates government to get an austerity package was defeated in Parliament, leading to Socrates' resignation. ...