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This NYT story describes the origin of the Panama Papers with an anonymous email sent to Bastian Obermayer of the German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung- "Interested in data?" Obermayer, who had done previous investigations into money laundering and tax evasion, replied "Very interested." When the 5 member team of the Suddeutsche Zeitung could not cope with the torrent of data coming in, the International Commission of Investigative Journalism organized an effort that brought in about 400 journalists from 100 news companies in 80 countries to tackle the trove of data. This process went on for one year till the data was released in April 2016. In the first 2 months when Obermayer worked with a colleague, the two exchanged emails in the middle of the night at late hours, saying it was taking all their time.

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Internet penetration in India is increasing rapidly. India had 71 million internet users in 2009 by one estimate. Current estimates are of 80-100 million internet users. India's internet penetration as percentage of population of 5% is low compared to China which is at 28.9%, Brazil at 39.2%, and Mexico at 28.3%, according to figures from the International Telecommunication Union. Analysts expect the launch of third generation broadband networks will help increase internet use in India. One study done by investment bank Caris & Co. shows internet use growing to 180-200 million users by 2015. Most of the major internet sites are in news, job-search or match-making. Internet retail is just beginning to grow with online purchases of $1.4 billion in 2010 going up to $5 billion in 2012.

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As thrift is now an important habit for customers, a number of low cost items is what retailers are hoping to sell this holiday season, instead of a blockbuster gadget. Best Buy's executive in charge of looking at customers mindsets says frugality trend is the overriding sentiment and getting value for money is uppermost in the mind. The other factor in this years electronics is that they offer incremental technology and not the Nintendo Wii videogame console or Apple iPhone product that created a lot of buzz. Also most cosumers already have one of these products. An exception is the electornic book reader. And Best Buy is offering competitors to the Kindle by Amazon, for $200-$400, and launching new store sections to let buyer try them out.

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The consumer confidence index of the Conference Board declined to 61% in September 2008 and to 38% in October 2008 in a survey of 5000 households. THe index reache 100 in 1985 and 38 is the lowest its recorded since the index was started in 1967. The survey showed more than half the respondents worried about the job market deteriorating further. About 760,000 jobs were lost for the 9 months to September 2008, the Labor Department reports. And home prices declined 16.6% in August compared with a year ago for 20 cities, the biggest annual drop in the history of the Case Shiller Index, for Home Prices released by Standard and Poors. Phoenix and Las Vegas declined by 30% and Los Angeles,Miami, San Diego and San Francisco decline by 25%.

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Priorities from voting by 100 CEO's at the CEO Council the week of 17 November, 2008. Swiftly passing an internationally coordinated stimulus in excess of $300 billion was voted a priority of 7.1 on scale of 1 to 9 with nine the highest. Bolstering education for a competitive workforce came in second at an average of 6.9. Speedily stating a clear economic vision, appointing advisers, and sending a strong message about priorities and direction of economic policy, came in third with an average of 6.8. Making a comprehensive energy and environmental policy a top priority, creating incentives for consumers to become more energy efficient, came in fourth with a 6.6 average. A long term tax policy that encourages employment and job creation and enhancing global competitiveness came in fifth with an average of 6.0.

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The Ministry of Commerce in China conducts anti-monopoly reviews and sets rules for which divestments need to occur in merger arrangements. In the Pfizer merger with Wyeth, the Ministry required Pfizer to sell a Chinese swine vaccine business to Harbin Pharmaceutical Group.. The concern- Pfizer could control 50% of the swine vaccine business in China with some 500 million pigs. Five other merger and acquisition transactions have come under review. Coca-Cola's $2.4 billon acquisition for a Chinese juice maker is stalled. Novartis and Eli Lilly showed interest but the Ministry of Commerce preferred to steer things to a Chinese player. In future it is expected that rules will favor up and comig local companies over large foreign companies.

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Moody's senior analyst based in Beijing, Yvonne Zhang, says China's National Audit Office's estimate of the banks loans as part of China's total local government debt of 10.7 trillion yuan ($1.65 trillion) is understated. The Audit Office estimated bank loans to be 8.5 trillion yuan. Moody's says this is understated by 3.5 trillion yuan or about $540 billion. Moody's sees the delinquency ratio of these loans between 50 and 75%. With these figures it sees 8-12% of bank loans in China's banking system as non-performing loans.

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A presidential decree made in Feb. 2011 requires foreign companies to cut stakes in mining companies to less than 50%. Previously upto 80% ownership was allowed in mining companies by foreign companies. The regulations show that foreign investors with 100% of ownership of mines are required to reduce their stakes by 20% within 6 years, 30% by 7th year, 37% by 8th year, 44% by 9th year, 51% by 10th year, selling to domestic investors. The idea is to maintain a share in domestic ownership of assets. Mining contributes 12% of Indonesia's GDP.

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Sovereign funds should reach $8 trillion by 2011. China Investment Corporation has $200 billion. Much larger are Singapore $438 billion and Norway $367 billion, Abu Dhabi $875 billion, Australia has $50 billion and Alaska has $40 billion. And they are in a majority of the cases professionally run, can stabilize markets because they invest in the long term, often as in Norway's case push for better corporate governance, and invest in emerging markets. It could affect the dollar as their holdings of a declining currency may decrease and as they show preference for emerging markets.

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A $50 billion infusion from the Swiss central bank does not stabilize Credit Suisse. The next step is for the Swiss central bank to arrange for UBS bank to take over Credit Suisse. For many years Credit Suisse management has taken outsize risks. 

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The debate in France about the need for a new policy to boost manufacturing at home. The planned closure of a Bridgestone factory in Bethune in northern France in 2021 provides another example of the effect on local communities with closing of plants. The French government has pledged to relocate more production back to France. About 15 billion euros of a 100 billion euros package to fight the effects of the pandemic on the economy will go to relocate sectors and boost local manufacturing and jobs.

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Behaviours of young people going to beaches and bars, ignoring social distancing guidelines and not wearing masks is leading to a rise in the number of daily cases in Europe. This includes an illegal rave in a Berlin park. The incidence of coronavirus is now 19.6 per 100,000 people for persons ages 20 to 29 compared to 9.7 per 100,000 for the French population as a whole. Germany has recorded 900 new cases daily, France 1000, and Spain 2000 as a result of these youth behaviours during the last week.

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The large infrastructure investments in the high speed rail network - estimated at $300 billon- have increased the debt of the railway ministry to about 5% of national GDP in the 1st quarter of 2011.The high speed rail lines are not likely to be economically viable, with revenues not enough to pay for operation and investment costs. With the higher fares it would take 9% of monthly disposable per capita income of urbanites or 555 yuan ($86) to pay for the cheapest ticket on the 300 mile Beijing-Shanghai high speed rail line. This makes high speed rail less affordable for middle and lower income people in China. The acceleration of the program in 2008 with stimulus funds and the moving up of deadlines for completion have led to corruption, stress on suppliers, and overinvestment. The program suffered from lack of good financial management and supervision in the rush to complete the program. Lack of equitable access and affordability to income groups from a majority of Chinese people have left the impression that it was for higher income groups. Higher tolls on highways and now the higher prices on highspeed rail have left the impression among ordinary Chinese that all income groups are not being served by the large infrastructure investments....

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Amy Coney Barrett and Barbara Lagoa are two judges Mr. Trump is considering for appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court to replace Justice Ginsburg, as he proceeds to nominate a Justice "without delay." 

Barrett is a Judge who has served for 2 years on the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals. She is a devout Roman Catholic and a legal scholar from Notre Dame University in Indiana. Lagoa is a judge on the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals and the first Latina on the Florida Supreme Court. Trump's nominee is likely to be confirmed quickly by the Senate as Republicans have 53 members in the Senate from a total of 100 members. Democrats want the nomination to be done after a president is elected in January 2021.

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Thirty minutes after trading started at the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Jan. 6, 2016, circuit breaker mechanisms were triggered following a decline of 7%. This followed a similiar circuit breaker trigerring on Jan. 4, 2016. This time investor anxiety was over a devaluation of the renminbi by the government. This triggered a drop of 3.5% in Germany's DAX index and 2.2% in the S&P 500 index. Faulty communication and confusing signals to markets by the central bank PBOC, and securities regulator CSRC, also played a part in increasing investor anxiety. Similiar problems were seen in summer 2015.

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High unemployment and sluggish growth in hiring-only 1.1 milllion jobs added in 2010 and only 103,000 in December 2010, according to the Labor Department- will restrict profit growth. Industries such as airlines, food, construction and telecom that lagged the recovery, will continue to face difficulties. Airlines face higher fuel prices and labor wage pressures. Standard and Poor's expects profits for the S&P 500 Index companies to reach a 3 year peak in the ist quarter 2011, then move lower for the next 5 quarters. Earnings reached $22.62 a share for these companies, up 29% from one year ago.

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Burton Malkiel on the role of index funds in a well diversified investor portfolio.

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With more vaccines available from Pfizer and Moderna, and the poor SinoVac Chinese vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant, Brazil and other countries in Latin America and Asia are shifting away from Chinese vaccines. Brazil's federal government has halted negotiations for additional doses of Chinese vaccines. In the early stages in 2020 Chinese vaccines helped Brazil cope with the devastating rise in cases. The slow pace of vaccinations in US and Europe has freed up more vaccine doses of Pfizer for other countries including Brazil. From accounting for 80% of vaccines in Brazil early in 2020, SinoVac vaccines now make up only 35% of Brazil's vaccine doses. At that time Brazil bought 100 million doses of SinoVac vaccine which were delivered. The local producer of SinoVac vaccine, the Butantan Institute will no longer make Chinese vaccines. While Sinovac vaccines are effective at preventing deaths, the vaccines have a low effectiveness rate for symptomatic infections. ...

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This article in The Guardian looks at the role of British authorites in the Empire in the 19th and 20th century that led to famines. Under Lord Lytton in the 1870's and in 1943-44 in Bengal there were famines that were worsened by British policy. Throughout the 19th and the first half of the 20th century India's energies were sapped and its poverty deepened by the British effort to extract wealth from India through commercial policy and taxation. During the Napoleonic Wars Britain used its Empire in India to finance the war in a way Napoleon lacked.  .As can be seen in the British Residency park in Lucknow  British authorites focused their efforts on the Treasury of the collapsing Empires in India whom they replaced. The people seeing tax territories shifted from one foreign authority to another stretching over four hundred years with little difference in development needs being met. After a period of self-rule which struggled with development after Independence in 1947, India's largest state Uttar Pradesh with a population of about 300 million, is finally bringing sanitation, water, roads, housing and medicine to all parts of the state. ...

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Garlic, ginger, turmeric and similar products are vital for healthy living and healthy food. So it is surprising that so little has been done before the Trump tariffs on Chinese food dumped in the U.S. This BBC report by Pamela Parker says 1994 was when the U.S. confirmed dumping by China of garlic yet the tariff that was placed was of an ineffective type that could be circumvented. As a result the U.S. producers such as Vessey in California that produced garlic for 100 years and 5 generations decided to not produce it beside cauliflower and cabbage. Of the surviving producers one producer today in California produces 100 million pounds of this product that has value way beyond the actual dollars as vital for healthy food supplies in the U.S. In fact after reports of contaminated water supplies in China imports of ginger and other such food products have been shifted away from China.  It is well known that the industrial revolution in China came too quickly and at a large cost to the environment after 1990 including contamination of the water, rivers. For this reason it is stunning that the people setting trade policy in Washington could have ignored the vital need of U.S. meeting food needs for healthy living out of its own soil and trusted farming community. To not have done so and let producers of garlic or ginger or other such vital food products to sustain health to go out of business is nothing less than a part of the growing calamity of self inflicted wounds that have happened so far. At no time more compelling an issue as today in the pandemic. The truth is that when it comes to healthy food supplies it is vitally important, as important as national security. And local supplies grown in one's own state or country particularly for vegetables, herbs, and fruit, are very critical. There is no way to even compare product grown locally to product grown in any country where water supplies may be contaminated by rapid industrial growth. ...

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The Bank of England offered to swap 50 billion pounds of mortgage backed securities for 9 month UK treasury bills. But for every 100 pounds of triple A rated mortgage backed securities offered as collateral BOE will give the bank 70 to 90 pounds, so banks will have to pay the price.

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Discussion on the need for a new framework in which debt of developing countries can be restructured with relief from private creditors and China. This is particularly needed for countries in Africa. Finance ministers from G-20 countries have come up with a new process for restructuring debt of world's poorest countries. These countries owe billions of dollars to China's state owned lenders and western fund managers who bought dollar denominated bonds of African countries. Zambia is the latest case of a country defaulting on its debt during the pandemic. Zambia missed a $42.5 million interest payment on some of its $3 billion in dollar denominated bonds. Zambia is one of Africa's largest copper producers and is now in default. Debts are now 100% of gross domestic product. Zambia's default follows default on debt of Ecuador and Argentina, which restructured their debts, after a steep sell off of emerging market bonds. Lebanon defaulted in March of this year. ...

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Ed Finn, president of Barron's for 19 years from 1998 has observed the economy for decades and comes to the conclusion that the 2007-2008 banking crisis from Reagan style deregulation was the one principal factor the US economy and the people suffered from a lost decade that was extended to 15 years by the pandemic. This has ended under president Biden says Finn, with he says about 10% growth in S&P 500 every year since 2020 and expects growth at that rate for another 4 years under president Biden. What this says about ultra low interest rates is that it was bad for America and a result of the need for tackling the 2009 financial crisis. Interest rates need to be at the moderate level of about 4-5%, the level today, where savers are rewarded, retirees are rewarded, bondholders are rewarded, and excessive risk taking is penalized, says Finn. Moderate interest rates help mortgage holders and new companies start businesses. In short says Finn- this is the way a economy should be run. We were sold the idea of ultra low interest rates because no one wanted to talk about the bad effects of Reagan style deregulation that inevitably lead to lack of the financial oversight of regulatory authorites. Financial oversight by regulatory authorites needed for modern economies to run, whether this is the US, India, China, or any large European economy, it is an essential condition for stable long term growth that serves the needs of the people of every major economy in the world. The idea must be cast aside that economic policy must be determined by the swings in sentiment  every few decades in one direction to too little government from to too much government or reverse, and be determined by essential truths of how a sound and good economy is run. As the US enters 2024 what Powell a Republican, and Biden a Democrat, and the bipartisan group of Senators in the US Congress are saying is that we get it, and are with single minded determination making it happen. ...

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At the G-7 in Italy Biden says- "he (Putin) cannot wait us out." A ten year pact on defense is signed with Ukraine by the US. A $50 billion loan is made to Ukraine with interest from frozen Russian assets in the EU.