LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ editorial looks beyond Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. It says for decades during which China modernized its economy with US investment and technology, Chinese policy remained peaceful reunification and no set date. The US under this agreement for peaceful reunification agreed that it would follow One China policy and not follow the earlier policy during the Cold War of close defense ties with Taiwan. Now it appears from Chinese policy under Xi Jinping that Chinese plans are for reunification of Taiwan by any means and with a date of the next decade or even in the next 18 months, says WSJ. This is a change of previous Chinese policy says WSJ and the US response should be to act with a change in its policy to provide Taiwan with the ability to defend itself during an invasion of the islands around Taiwan or other invasion.

LyrArc Article Gist
China's military drills around Taiwan have an unintended effect of creating a shift in American and European sentiment on the overconcentration of US and EU investment in China. Business in Germany and in the US has operated for a long time in the Merkel and Bush-Obama-Trump administrations a if this overconcentration which hurt workers and communities in both the EU and the US did not matter as long as the interests of the individual companies was met. Mr. Biden's policy takes an entirely different approach to protect American workers, rebuild American manufacturing, rebuild infrastructure, and to build America's leadership in the world. The military drills only increase the awareness in America of the risks and dangers of the positions taken by previous administrations. Shifting sentiment to back president Biden's strong steps to rebuild America and American leadership.

LyrArc Article Gist
A sense that president Putin may have seriously "miscalculated" the scale of Ukrainian resistance and that he may not be getting the right information from subordinates. The conflict does not appear to be in Russia's long term interest, making it weaker with western sanctions.

For EU the shift away from Russian oil supplies shifts to supplies from Qatar and other nations and use of LNG terminals. The US and EU will likely see a more effective shift to renewable energy after the Ukraine war. Increased funding for defense in US and EU and the funding for social goals with a wealth tax planned in the US.

China also sees an impact on its economy and long term growth with sharply reduced access to western technology and research, and restructuring of supply chains to be shorter and focus more on South and Southeast Asia, less on China.

LyrArc Article Gist
What is not reported is that the US could accept a shift of some appliance production overseas, what it could not accept is the shift of its manufacturing base in industries it created in semiconductors and technology to Taiwan, China and Japan, South Korea. The economists of the previous administrations were clearly wrong, and the previous administrations did nothing but observe the slow destruction of America's industrial base. It will take 4 years of the DJT administration for the investments to be made in the US, the future administrations will continue this policy. Deng and Kellman in WSJ clearly understate the importance of the policy changes for America's Level Playing Field ALPF. It is easy to say Whirlpool and Harley Davidson won't be coming back strongly soon as the EU, Japan and South Korean makers of appliances and motorcycles will be able to absorb most or all of the 15% in tariffs. Yet it gives them a better  and level playing field to compete with foriegn makers. What is not shown here is that the tariffs will help increase investment in EU and Japanese , South Korean automakers in the US, and will increase with lighter regulation the opportunities for American automakers GM and Ford. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT plans an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports to the US for its role in not shutting off the fentanyl flows. This is part of overall tariff action on CMC countries for their role in the flow of fentanyl to the US for which they did not take the necessary action to close this.  Business in the US as expressed in the WSJ says the tariffs are wrong. Who is in the right? DJT says on his site "they are so-ooo wrong." Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary, calls the  DJT fentanyl tariffs on CMC (Canada Mexico China) as part of domestic policy. It is not economic policy but domestic action to protect the rights of Americans to live freely without drugs and gangs, without fentanyl flows in their neighborhoods just as China protects its neighborhoods and its people, the government fulfilling its most important  responsibilities for safety of its citizens, its families and children, the social compact itself. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
BYD electric car Chinese automaker has doubled sales in 2022 and is surging past Tesla in China. Most of its component makers are located in Shenzen which were not affected by the lockdowns in 2022, compared to its competitors VW and Tesla with parts makers in Shanghai area. BYD was a pioneer in making batteries for cars in China, which gives it a considerable advantage over VW and Tesla which source the batteries from outside.

Warren Buffett invested 210 million for 7.7% of BYD in 2008. Other US investors also invested in BYD.

LyrArc Article Gist
Action that needed to come ten years back is finally taken. The new US president DJT says- "I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular fentanyl, being sent into the United States – but to no avail. Representatives of China told me they would enforce their maximum penalty, including the death sentence, for any drug dealers caught doing this, but unfortunately, they never followed through. As a result, drugs are pouring into our country, mostly through Mexico, at levels never seen before. Until they stop, we will charge China an additional 10% tariff, on top of any existing tariffs, on all of their products entering the United States.”  "On 20 January, as one of my first executive orders, I will sign all necessary documents to impose a 25% tariff on all products coming into the United States from Mexico and Canada, along with addressing its ridiculous open borders. This tariff will remain in place until drugs, particularly fentanyl, and illegal immigrants stop invading our country.” ...

LyrArc Article Gist
GDP of the USA contracted by 3.8% in the 4th quarter of 2008. Excluding the inventory adjustment which is the inventory of products made but sitting on inventory shelfs, the GDP contracted by 5.1%. In the last week of January 2009 there were 70,000 layoffs in the U.S. in all sectors from trucks to technology. 2009 is going to get a lot worse which does not bode well for Detroit automakers and other industries, and for economies overseas like China and South Korea which are heavily dependent on exports, and in turn for Germany which is dependent on the Chinese market.

LyrArc Article Gist
Iranian missiles and drones flying low and close to the ground avoided detection by Saudi and American air defense systems. The missiles and drones hit Saudi oil facilities stopping about half of the Saudi oil production. Iranian cruise missile technology was used for the attack, according to U.S. officials. The attack also showed how vulnerable the oil supplies from this region are to disruption. The U.S. is not dependent on Saudis for oil as it has increased its production from shale. China, Japan, South Korea and India are dependent on Saudi oil supplies. Yet the U.S. is shouldering a greater burden for ensuring reliable supplies to Asian countries, something the Trump administration sees it should be compensated for. Tougher sanctions on Iranian oil hurt its economy, resulting in actions taken by Iran to disrupt Saudi oil supplies. The Saudi intervention in Yemen is another source of tensions in the region. The Trump administration says it is not interested in endless wars in the region, yet its tougher oil sanctions on Iran are pulling it into the conflict in unpredictable ways. China, India, and other countries had sought sanctions waivers to import Iranian oil, and see the sanctions as hurting oil supplies. India with limited supplies of its own was affected by the oil sanctions. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A gradual deterioration in people's confidence in government from illegal activities was the threat XI Jinping saw early by 2013, after over 60 years of a single party running China. It has affected his entire outlook on what China's policy needs to be for its long term interest in modernization. A reminder is this account by Chinese state media that says Tomorrow Group run by a Chinese Canadian illegally collected $45 billion in deposits. Illegal collecting of deposits is connected to collecting on false pretenses money for investment or real estate without proper licenses. Shanghai Intermediate Court says $100 million was given to government officials. This company was dismantled between 2016 and 2020 and was run by a 50 year old Canadian Chinese businessman. It included 4 insurers, 2 trust firms, 2 securities firms and a futures company. Other such scandals including for stock manipulation were revealed by 2016. Xi Jinping was made president in 2013. He realized the danger to China of the extent to which the country's economy was exposed to illegal activity in business and what this could do to the country if the Communist party- the only party that China has known since 1900 and Japanese imperialist invasion other than the Nationalist Koumintang party-lost the confidence of the people and failed. The Nationalists party collapsed because of such illegal activities that profited a small group of business people and led to deep discontent in China in the 1930's and 1940's, the period when the Japanese overran most of China and setup puppet regimes. Corruption Control in Authoritarian Regimes- Lessons from East Asia by Cambridge University Press points out that this type of illegal activity led to the delegitimization of the Nationalists party which ruled parts of China not overrun by the Japanese during the period 1920 to 1949. This led to defeat to the Communists in the Civil war with little that even US help under General Joe Stilwell could reverse shown in Barbara Tuchman's book Stilwell and the American Experience in China. The US had not chosen to work with the Nationalists under Stillwell's leadership and Stilwell was even asked to resign by the Nationalists because he protested these illegal activities that undermined confidence in the government and made FDR deeply uneasy about the relationship with the Nationalists. Xi Jinping understood very well that this could happen again if these types of illegal activities were allowed to continue leading to policies he has pursued since 2013. He grasped that this would leave China without strong leadership at a time that was critical for its modernization. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Federal prosecutors are working on a criminal investigation of China's Huawei Technologies Co. for allegedly stealing trade secrets from U.S. business partners. Huawei is the world's second largest maker of smartphones and the largest maker of telecom equipment in the world. One investigation looks at technology used by T-mobile to test smartphones. The Trump administration is aggressively following up on cases of technology transfer by Chinese companies and intellectual property theft.

Another investigation involves technology trade secrets of Micron Technology Inc. The U.S. Justice Department is taking up previous civil lawsuits related to technology theft and bringing up criminal cases.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. job growth slowed in February to just 20,000 jobs in nonfarm sector following strong gains in December and January. The 3 month average is 186,000 jobs created. Unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%. The figures are watched closely as Europe and China are showing slow growth. The European Central Bank said it will not increase interest rates till 2020 and announced fresh stimulus loans. The U.S. Federal Reserve is not expected to raise rates in the next few months. Economic output growth was 0.5% in the first quarter after 3% growth in 2018. Other reports show labor scarcity with wage growth outpacing inflation. 

LyrArc Article Gist
The Education Department has opened investigations into Harvard and Yale. This is part of an overall investigation of why U.S. universities have failed to disclose at least $6.5 billion in foreign funding  from countries such as China and Saudi Arabia, according to this report in the WSJ.  The Education Department described this in a document seen by the WSJ as " multibillion dollar multinational enterprises using opaque foundations, foreign campuses and other sophisticated legal structures to generate revenue." The document says these universities acted to actively solicit funds from foreign governments, companies and nationals known to be unfriendly to the U.S.

LyrArc Article Gist
The US central bank the Fed's Powell leaves interest rates unchanged July 30, 2025- as he waits to see what happens with inflation following tariffs action by DJT to level playing field with EU, Japan, China. A tariff of 15% is set in US Trade Agreements with Japan, EU and South Korea. Powell says the impact on US consumers will be minimal but not zero, with some effects expected even though EU, Japan and South Korea will not attempt to pass through the tariffs and risk the other benefits of trade access to the US market.

Overall both the European Union and the US have a good economy, with inflation at 2% and the the unemployment situation the best it has been in some decades near 6% in EU and near 4% in the US. 

LyrArc Article Gist
WSJ Editorial talks about so called "spending blowouts" of the Democrats in 2024. Are Republicans saying let the roads, bridges, airports, built in the 1940-1960's heyday of American industrialization as China and India's is now, let them crumble? What do the educated minds of the WSJ Board say about coal in China and India and their effects on their massive use multiple times that of US and EU in history, is it not damaging to the environment? And why the Chinese realized the health in North China with coal winter use was worse than in South China cut their coal use. Are they saying lets burn fossil fuels and ignore, and if investment has to be made in solar who is going to do it? Is it OK for Republicans that we just import from China all our solar panels indefinitely into the future? "Green New Deal" is just a perjorative term, policy has to be made thoughtfully and without prejudice or bias of any sort for the best that we can do for the American people, ignoring so called "right" or "left." Doing what is right, what makes sense, is a lot harder.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
McDonald's is seeing declining sales in the U.S. The percentage of people in the U.S. going to McDonald's declined by 12.9% in the 19-21 age group and was flat for the 22-37 years age group, according to Technomic. Younger Americans especially are seeking out healthier alternatives with emphasis on fresh food. Another competing trend is fast casual restuarants such as Panera Bread. Fast casual restaurants increased from 9000 to 21000 in the last 10 years, while McDonalds has remained at 14,000. Chipotle started in 1993 and now has 1600 locations. Five Guys has 1000 locations. Consumer Reports surveyed 32,000 subscribers and rated McDonalds as the last in taste of 20 burger chains. Consumer Reports gave as a reason millenials and younger consumers who will try hard to get the right food. Problems in Russia about sanitary conditions and declining sales in China after the government accusations about a key supplier using expired meat also add to problems. Increasing concern about healthcare and obesity also add to the search for alternatives and careful selection of meals, especially among younger educated buyers....

LyrArc Article Gist
Bradsher, Tankersley and Cohen say in this NYT report- US industrial policy under president Biden corrects the failures of the past. Chinese experts in Hong Kong say the US and Europe deindustrialized their economies with pursuing of policies called "neo-liberal" but basically Reagan era policies that Democratic presidents Clinton-Obama imitated. As they deindustrialized it created disaffection among the struggling lower and middle income classes making $35,000-$106,000 that were big losers in the process, creating threats to democracy as financial and tech, plus pharmaceutical sectors took control of the economy. China's success comes from three decades of mastering the ways of practicing industrial policy that it can support private companies with low cost land, additional subsidies that reduce the cost of production and provide a buffer to absorb losses so that it could dominate key industries. Policies where textbooks and economists trained in the US failed utterly and completely leading to dangers to US democracy that we see as opportunities for good paying jobs in manufacturing disappeared for middle and lower income households from 1980 to 2020. These economists trained in the US always said see lower cost Chinese made goods means lower and middle income people pay less, never saying that this means all opportunities for better paying jobs in manufacturing will be lost for these classes in society. The tech and financial sectors had close ties to the new arrangement that turned manufacturing over to China from the Reagan era to the Obama and Trump era. Apple and Tesla and many industries benefitted from manufacturing mostly outsourced to China. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The treaty of handover by Britain of Hong Kong under one country, two systems was flawed in the way it was negotiated. French commentators looking at the problem say the city is caught between its past in the British Empire and the new monolithic state that China represents. Under the British French visitors looked at the city and wondered how there was freedom but no democracy, people were just selfishly just interested in making money. Chris Patten, Britain's administrator of the territory tried but failed to get democratic process, During the negotiations in 1984 for handover the chief British negotiator, Percy Cradock, a former ambassador to China, tells the Australian Broadcasting Corporation that - In Hong Kong where there is such a disparity in strength between the two sides, you go for the best you can get, I take the simple view that half a loaf is better than no bread." Britain had very little leverage to secure a separate future for Hong Kong because it was small compared to much larger China resulting unequal negotiations. The same is true today as the best Britain could do is to get out a joint declaration with Australia and Canada saying that it did not approve the new security law, that it violated the treaty signed by Britain and China. The French view expressed by the editor of La Croix is that hasty poorly planned British exits- as happened in British India -have led to crises and conflicts for postcolonial generations, a legacy of British colonial rule. India and Pakistan still sorting out Kashmir, and India and China still fighting about the McMahon Line border area. The situation is very different for the U.S. which now has to respond in some way, and this comes as trade tensions and coronavirus tensions about its origins in China and the failure of Beijing to allow quick entry for an American team into Wuhan. This being for 7 weeks between Jan 6 request and February 16 permission. America sees this as losing 7 precious weeks to make up its own determination of the dangers when every week health experts say means saving or losing tens of thousands of lives. With loss of 100,000 lives the Trump administration has a sense of being misled. This French report in FR24 points out that the lack of a strong response from the U.S. would be something similar to letting the Berlin Wall happen without a response. Both sides in a situation where the territory of Hong Kong remained mostly about money and with a disproportionate influence of business interests similar to its founding under the unequal treaties of the 1850's. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China build its solar industry with huge subsidies, the US did not. From 2018 to 2022 the US solar industry suffered with lack of help from the US government under the Trump administration and the first year of the Biden administration. 30 US based solar companies shutdown in a bloodbath and many jobs were lost. Enter the climate law in 2022 under president Biden and in 2023 the US investment in solar reached $8 billion, three times what it was in the previous 6 years. 

LyrArc Article Gist
By drawing a comparison of China's aggressive flights close to Taiwan to the invasion of Ukraine, president Biden brings clarity to the US position on Taiwan. He says in Tokyo during his Asian trip that China "was flirting with danger" through its aggressive posture on Taiwan. President Biden made his remarks during a press conference with prime minister Fumio Kishida of Japan in Tokyo. This is what the BBC says about his remarks-  The US president began the press conference by directly linking the China-Taiwan situation to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, saying that the Russian president was "attempting to eliminate the identity of Ukraine." If there was rapprochement eventually between Ukraine and Russia and sanctions were not sustained, "then what does this signal to China about the costs of attempting to take Taiwan by force?" "They are flirting with danger already by flying so close and all the manoeuvres they are undertaking," Biden said, referring to increasing reports of Chinese warplane incursions into Taiwanese airspace. This suggests that the Asian trip of president Biden is bringing with it America's new Asia policy of building strong economic and defense partnerships in Asia. The US president also looks beyond today's conflict in Ukraine to an eventual rapprochement and end of sanctions as a possible scenario in Europe, and sees Asia as the region for America to build new supply chains that strengthen America and its partners, with a new partnership being formed with India, Indonesia and Vietnam, and with other ASEAN nations. In a way Biden and Republicans see the challenge from emerging powers in Asia as similar to the one from Japan in the thirties and the eighties, to be met with the combined economic strength of the US and Europe.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in ProPublica on October 13, 2020, by Lydia DePillis was written near the end of Robert Lighhizer's term as US Trade Representative.  Bottom Line: It is human behaviour that no country, no kingdom or group will give up its money advantages secured when the opposition was weak or disorganized till the last fight is fought. The British were not giving up India, a source of financing the war against Napoleon in 1800's and then the Industrial Revolution in 1850's, the Dutch were not giving up the financial advantages of their Spices Empire in Batavia (Indonesia). History has shown this. Once gained under a state capitalism Japan was not going to give up its financial advantages gained by the 1980's when the US was weak or disorganized, till the last battle was fought.  Lighthizer who for the relentless Japanese was equally relentless till the goal of fair and level playing field for America was secured. This is true for China today on Liberation Day. This entire report by De Pillis in 2020 shows the Chinese would be relentless in 2020 like the Japanese in the 1980's, the Dutch in Indonesia  in the 18th and 19th century and the British in India in the 19th century and 20th century. China turned Mexico and Vietnam into supply routes into the US market. It continued its efforts to gain US technology in other ways. USTR older officials from the Bush Obama years of failed negotiations with China and endless hours putting together minute details of agreements including the TransPacific Agreement of Obama were not going to like the new approach of Lighthizer so stuck were they with the old approach of no clear goal and not getting an even playing field from China. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The real estate bubble in China continues to grow even after th pandemic. Local governments depend on land sales for about 60% of their revenues. The government in Beijing also is unwilling to let prices decline too much because this could create unrest. As a result households have continued to add second, third homes in speculative investment. Unlike the U.S. where households invest in the stock and bond markets and residential property investment is one of several options, in China this is the only option people believe. The notion of continually rising prices is built into the mindset in China. This is happening even as those who do not have homes are still priced out of the market, and those with savings are pouring them into housing, more so as people save more in 2020. This can be seen in the vacant homes rising to about 40% for those buying second homes. People are also taking on more debt with consumer, mortgage and other debt of households getting close to 60% of the country's GDP, a high leverage ratio. This also means there is less capital to invest in productive investments in industry as more and more savings are tied up in housing with large vacancy rates meaning the housing is not even being used. Some of the speculative nature of this can be seen in this report in the WSJ for cities such as Tianjin, Shanghai and Shenzen. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Krugman points to the economic muddle that China is getting itself into. He says one way of looking at what is happening now with high inflation is that inflation is the market's way of undoing the currency manipulation that China has engaged in. By following aweak currency policy to protect export interests China has created an artificially high trade surplus. But this is now turning into a lose-lose proposition for both China and the US as market forces push wages and prices up, whittling away at any competitive advantage of China's weak currency policy. He says some estimates he has seen show that Chinese undervaluation could be gone in two or three years. Chinese consumers are asked to accept interest on savings limited to 2.75% and below inflation, with the spread designed to help banks earn their way out of bad loans made during the stimulus lending binge of 2009-2010. What is happening is a massive allocation of capital away from consumers to lending for state owned companies that have created overcapacity in many industries, and use part of this capital to engage in real estate speculation. Krugman says China may be on its way to some kind of crisis with collateral damage to the rest of the world as it is a major importer of commodities from Canada, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, and a major importer of high tech goods from Germany and the USA....

LyrArc Article Gist
A decline in German manufacturing driven by the decline in its large auto sector. This in addition to Germany's large investments in China under Merkel and Chinese lockdowns will delay a post pandemic recovery, says this report in WSJ. Germany is now shifting its investments to the US as shown by the new investment in a VW Scout brand restarted in the US.

LyrArc Article Gist
Savings for China and Japan by increasing oil imports at low prices could amount to about 1% of the economy for each country. Japan imports of oil are one tenth of total imports, and amount to $75 billion. At prices half of what they were before coronavirus the savings are about $40 billion a year. This will offset some of the drop in economic growth of about 3% in the year ending March 2021.

For countries where the coronavirus has been relatively controlled with manufacturing and infrastructure projects ready to go ahead the benefit is greatest. China expects to see about 7% decline in GDP in the first quarter resulting in minimal growth for the year as long as export markets in the U.S. and Europe remain weak. For India it depends on how long the lockdown continues and how quickly economic activity can resume under new conditions.