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Yes millions of jobs created under Biden in 4 years- 19 million jobs. Yet the growth in jobs is uneven across counties and states in the US. A full 43 percent of counties have not fared as well with jobs not reaching 2019 prepandemic levels by the beginning of 2024. This includes Michigan with Wayne County having 2% less from 2019 levels. It includes Pennsylvania and the Pittsburgh area. It includes Wisconsin. Western and southern states did better with Arizona and Nevada going in opposite directions one gaining from investments in electric cars and green energy, and the other Nevada suffering from the hit taken by workers in hotels and hospitality.  NYT shows in graphical detail the situation today.

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With leading Republicans supporting Harris during campaigning in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania Harris asks people of America to choose country over party, saying-

“The coalition we have built has room for everyone who is ready to turn the page on the chaos and instability of Donald Trump. And I pledge to you to be a president for all Americans."

As leading Republicans campaigned with Harris in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Harris said she would go across the aisle to move forward America's national agenda and appoint Republicans to her cabinet for the Way Forward.

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Democrats win a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court and lose 2 Congressional elections in Florida with smaller margins in April 2025. It revives spirits of Democrats following a loss in the November 2024 elections.

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About 2.6 million eligible to vote people in Michigan and 3.5 million in Pennsylvania, and 1.3 million in Wisconsin did not vote in the 2016 election. The critical states this time are also Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and these three states went to the winner by less than 10,000 in Michigan, 20,000 in Wisconsin and 50,000 in Pennsylvania.  A NYT analysis of Census Bureau data for 2016 election reveals that most of these people who are eligible but do not vote have lost interest in both parties that show little interest in delivering for them. Many of them are shown to be lower income voters, voters doing 2 jobs, or voters struggling financially. Some are single child parents in today's social structures. Getting a small portion of this vote can make a difference in a close election.  From 1840 to 1900 the percent of voting age population that voted has been between 70 to 80%. By the 1920's this dropped to about 50%. And it has been around 55% since the period of the Great Depression except for elections in 1952 and 56 for General Eisenhower and 1960 for John Kennedy. Even Harry Truman's whistlestop train campaign in 1948 got only 51% out to vote. Even the Roosevelt FDR three campaigns in 1932, 1936 and 1940 got 52-58% of voting age population to vote. The highest of any election was the election that led to the Civil War in which Lincoln won where 81% of the voting age population voted. Is it possible that America was a relatively much more prosperous country in the period 1840-1900 before large scale immigration from poorer parts of Europe and then poorer parts of Latin America and Asia, and large scale urbanization. With ample land and independent farmers in the nineteenth century leaving less scope for the poverty that exists in urban areas and social decay in rural areas and small towns that is seen today. Resulting in a much more civic consciousness and awareness of America's future and destiny than exists today. By comparison voter turnout in India has increased to 66% in 2014 election and 67% in 2018 after alternating high and low between 50-60% since 1947. Some forecasts are for a high turnout in the U.S. in 2020 to exceed 60%. The bright side for democracy is shown by the 911 million people who voted in the last Indian election of 2018. ...

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Amy Goldstein spends time in Janesville, Wisconsin, in U.S. vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan's congressional district, and talks to local people to give a glimpse of life in Janesville after the closing of the GM plant and the 2008 financial crisis. She looks at the effects of long-term unemployment and cuts in services in communities such as Janesville as a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, while on leave from the national staff of the Washington Post. Ryan was first elected to the U.S. Congress in 1998, about a decade before the closing of the GM plant, and has been reelected to Congress each time for 7 consecutive terms. Goldstein says Janesville is typical of the communities across America that have suffered job losses- the loss of more jobs in manufacturing than any other sector, a greater impact of job loss for men than women, and a large impact on people who had less education but well paid jobs. As shown by the recent settlement for a Caterpillar plant in Joliet, Illinois, and across the U.S. manufacturing landscape, older workers who enjoyed higher wages are retiring with newer workers coming in at a lower wage, which is improving U.S. manufacturing competitiveness but also increasing the importance of education for higher paying jobs....

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The battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the North have 83% white voters in a national election compared to 69% nationwide. It is with white voters that Mr. Biden is doing better and according to three sets of data, and this could make it possible for Mr. Biden to win these states again in 2024. In Georgia and Arizona nonwhite vote remains sturdy for Biden, while the states are moving leftward, and this could tilt these states towards Biden, says this report. Biden is losing some support among nonwhite voters but this is happening in states such as New York where Democrats would have a smaller margin in their win. These changes are observed by taking into account the 2020 national and midterms results and combining them with insights from NYT/Siena polls in recent months.

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How do schools reopen during the pandemic. This report shows how schools and students struggle with reopening. The first part of the report looks at how one family in Wisconsin is coping with 3 children  2, 4 and 11 years old, from kindergarten to middle school. Only the middle school child is going back to school. Both parents work from home, have struggled to cope with kids at home. Lack of enough computer equipment restricts kids learning long distance, and concentration is also an issue. 

The rest of the report covers how schools are reopening in cities- Bangkok, Jerusalem, Tunis, Stockholm, Dortmund, Mumbai, Rio de Janeiro.

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The Times looks at local elections in Britain this week, and a swing to the Labor party of 700 seats given Labor's 15 point lead over the Conservatives. This is a dry run for the general elections that Keir Starmer is preparing for, as Britain ripped by crises like the rest of Europe and the US, faces another once in a generation period to decide what kind of a society to create for the future. The blue wall refers to former Labor party supporting constituencies that voted for Boris Johnson in the mistaken assumption that the  Conservatives could deliver for British workers and families. A similar situation exists in the US as president Biden seeks to gain traditional Democratic states such as Pennsylvania and the midwestern states such as Wisconsin, southern states such as Georgia, and western states such as Arizona.

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Would a generic Democrat do better? Mr. Biden's weakness is with less engaged voters says this analysis of a Times Siena poll showing less support in battleground states. One queer aspect of this poll is that Kamala Harris does slightly better because she does better with non white voters. Mr. Biden does well with white voters retaining all of his support achieved in the 2020 election with white voters. Another queer aspect of this poll is that a so called generic Democrat would win by large margins of over 5% in most of the battleground states over Mr. Trump, in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Another queer aspect of the poll is that Michigan has all three- the Governor's position, the State Assembly and other positions in the hands of Democrats who have performed well in the state.

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The president tells a Wisconsin rally that he is not going to let one 60 minute debate obscure three and a half years of hard work. In the ABC interview tonight he says he was sick and feeling terrible that night of the debate, that it was a bad cold not a serious condition. That he should have listened to his instincts while preparing. This episode will be remembered in history as one which showed  an irresponsible media owned by television magnates trying to assert their power on a president who remains popular with the American people, and has the vast store of experience, wisdom and the character to get America through an inflection point, through the challenges of climate change, loss of manufacturing and overconcentration of supply chains in China that previous administrations since Reagan including Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump had done little about. 

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Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) who seeks deeper spending cuts, Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) who sees Medicaid co pay for able bodied at 100% of federal poverty level as a "sick tax," Lisa Murkowski who differs on taxing providers, and other Congressmen and Women in the Republican party are opposing the new tax cut package of president Trump. Senator Rand Paul (R- Kentucky opposes the raising of the debt ceiling, and is also opposed.

Most of the main Medicaid cuts come after 2029 after Trump no longer is president, so that Republicans who want to see the shrinking of the Medicaid program so it meets only needs of the most needy, want to see faster cuts while Trump is president. And there are other Republicans in Congress who face tight elections and see big risks of losing their seats.

 

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Protests in Ohio, Indiana and Wisconsin over efforts by Republican governors to restrict rights of public sector unions.

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The University of Wisconsin increased tution by 5.5% for a number of years. University officials say a reserve fund of $650 million of the University of Wisconsin was built up with most of the funds coming from the tution increases. The reason university officials give for this is the $5 billion university budget, with only 20% provided by the state of Wisconsin. Shrinking support from the state led to the effort to build a reserve fund. The size of the fund and the lack of disclosure by university officials that tution increases were being used to build up the fund has led to strong criticism. Reports about the spending at the University of Minnesota and other universities show the lack of spending restraint at large universities in the U.S. Bureaucratic layers and debt servicing for new buildings take up large portions of the universiy budgets.

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The president of Ohio Christian University, Mark Smith, says there are six different faith groups out there in Ohio supporting Romney, and there remains a high level of intensity driven by a desire to protect religious liberty from an enroaching expansion of the state. He says the public fight of the Obama administration with Catholic hospitals and charities was seen as a threat by evangelical Christians. The evangelical vote makes up 30% of the vote in Ohio, 31% in Iowa, and 26% in Wisconsin.

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In this excellent report from the WSJ reporters talk to people in key counties in battleground states. Issues people see as important are covered to get a feel for how they think. The four topics on people's minds are-

1.  Business and the Economy

2.  Race and Policing

3. Climate

4. Agriculture and Trade

5. Coronavirus

President Trump has popular support for work on the economy, and in agriculture and trade. He faces criticism for the surge in the coronavirus cases during the second wave.

States selected for understanding people's views and thinking- In Pennsylvania, Philadelphia county. In Wisconsin, Sauk County. In Michigan Macomb and Wayne counties. In Florida Lee county. In Georgia, Peach county. In North Carolina, Watauga county. In Arizona, Maricopa county. Other states include Maine, Iowa, and Colorado.

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The WSJ editorial on the Wisconsin teachers and other public worker protests over legislation to take away collective bargaining rights for public workers.

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Kimberly Strassel says the choice presented in the 2012 presidential election with Romney's pick of Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, is between stagnation and national renewal.

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A WSJ/NBC poll of Sept 20, 2012 showing Obama with a eight percentage point lead in Iowa, and a five point lead in Colorado and Wisconsin.

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Kamala Harris and Tim Walz pick up support in the swing states from Michigan and Wisconsin to Minnesota and New Hampshire, from Georgia to North Carolina, and from Arizona to Nevada in different regions of the US. This happens through directly talking to the public one on one and with the unions and workers, workers families. The media's tolerance for misinformation and for not talking seriously about issues such as climate change, on whose side Harris and Walz are - that of workers and families- on the investments in manufacturing and infrastructure, investment in rural areas, that have changed the potential of the US economy, is amazing, simply amazing not to think about its credibility with the public. And the social media's appetite for misinformation as happened this week in Britain with the riots in the north and Prime minister Starmer calling them out - "social media is not a law-free zone" - shows the extent of the challenge the Nation faces. ...

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The US Senate races in 2024. See if you can connect the names to the state in US where the contest is being decided November 5. Bob Casey Jon Tester Tammy Baldwin Angela Alsobrooks Jacky Rosen Ruben Gallego Colin Allred Which is the big upset race? Who are the Independent Senators who retired? Answers- Casey- Pennsylvania, Tester- Montana, Baldwin- Wisconsin, Alsobrooks-Maryland,  Rosen- Nevada, Gallego- Arizona Colin Allred- Texas The big upset US Senate race in Texas, Colin Allred to unseat Republican Ted Cruz. Independent Senators retiring Joe Manchin- West Virginia, Krysten Sinema-Arizona. With their support Biden passed the Inflation Reduction Act, other major legislation to invest in the renewal of America's infrastructure, American manufacturing,  CHIPS and Science.   ...

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States with zero tolerance laws for marijuana use are Arizona, Utah, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Washington, Montana, Nevada,  Illinois and Ohio also restrict driving using marijuana. About 15 million people reported using marijuana in 2019 in the US, according to AAA.  And 15% of the US population uses marijuana up from 7% 10 years earlier, according to Gallup. Highway Safety officials at the state level say as lot of attention was paid into revenue coming to the state and not enough to highway safety for the legalization of marijuana use. 24 states legalized recreational use of marijuana, 39 states allowed medical use. States that legalized recreational use in the western US - Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Montana, Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, Alaska, Hawaii. In the Midwestern US- Illinois, Michigan. In the Southern US  Missouri and Florida, Maryland. In the northeast, Delaware, Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, Maine, Vermont, New Jersey, Maryland Washington DC,     ...

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Mitt Romney met with Billy Graham at his N. Carolina home on Oct. 11, 2012. The evangelical Christian vote in Ohio, Wisconsin and other midwest states looks to be the decisive factor in 2012 as it was in 2004.

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Hillary Clinton's presidential election strategy appears to be writing off core Republican states such as Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virgina, and focussing on parts of the midwest such as Ohio, Wisconsin, the East and the West. It would be different from the election strategy Hillary Clinton used in 2008 which made an appeal to white working class voters and worked to win votes nationwide, similiar to the two Bill Clinton campaigns which appealed to centrist voters. This may also be because Hillary Clinton is perceived in 2015 as a polarizing candidate by many voters in southern states, with little prospect of winning in these states, making the new strategy a safe fallback option based on Democratic strategies in 2008 and 2012. Jeb Bush's strategy as a candidate with positions that would attract some Hispanic voters, and working class voters, could pose risks to this Clinton election strategy.