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Russian forces on the offensive in Ukraine with western tanks months away, says this story in the WSJ.

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Macron of France, Scholz of Germany and Tusk of Poland meet in Berlin to iron out difference on Ukraine. Macron calls for strategic ambiguity and a more efforts to support Ukraine.

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Retired General Keith Kellogg was in National Security roles in the DJT first term. He is the new DJT envoy to Ukraine and Russia with the goal of negotiating a settlement between Russia and Ukraine. He was chief of staff of the National Security Council in DJT's first term. And also the National Security Advser to vice President Mike Pence. The 80 year old veteran co-authored a paper for America First think tank which says- "The United States would continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen its defenses to ensure Russia will make no further advances and will not attack again after a cease-fire or peace agreement."  "Future American military aid, however, will require Ukraine to participate in peace talks with Russia."  This comes as Zelensky's popularity in Ukraine has dipped to 16% and Ukraine's people do not want him to run again for president. This is intended to draw Ukraine into peace talks as prolonging the war would lead to enormous losses for Ukraine's cities and the people of Ukraine, Kellogg told the Voice of America at the Republican Convention in 2024, and peace talks would end the war with Russia. ...

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Huge losses similar to parts of the war in World War II- and calls from the US president to stop the war in 2025 and talks in 2026.

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Ukraine's advances in the Kharkiv region and the problems facing the Russian army are shown in this report in the WSJ.

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Russia is seeking guarantees from the US that Ukraine will not join NATO. Russian concern is that NATO would put in missiles on countries along its border. A Russian buildup on its border with Ukraine continues with the prospect of an invasion. President Biden and president Putin of Russia will discuss ways to resolve the situation this week in a phone call.

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German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht says Germany will send anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine. She said "we are working together with our American friends in training Ukrainian troops on artillery systems on German soil." 

The decision by Russia to launch a new offensive in the south and east of Ukraine after the stalling of the Russian forces near Kiev, has led to a shift in American policy to decisively counteract the Russian moves into Ukraine with weapons and training assistance. WIth both Republicans and Democrats determined to support president Biden in this decision, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Foreign Minister Blinken visited Kviv and then landed at Ramstein Air Force Base to coordinate the efforts from Germany.

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The US is sending the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System to Ukraine to counter Russian artillery and long range rocket attacks in the eastern Donbas region. This is part of a new $700 million 11th military aid package to Ukraine. Germany will provide its IRIS-T system to Ukraine with radar to track Russian artillery, so that entire cities can be protected from Russian artillery attacks. The US has obtained assurances from Mr. Zelensky that the HIMARS US system will only be used on Ukrainian territory and not into Russian territory. Ukraine currently lacks this type of system that reaches for 45 miles for its midrange system, and it is seen as crucial for defending Ukraine, as Ukrainians are being forced back with Russian artillery attacks. Mr. Biden in an article in the New York Times said the US goal was simply to see "a democratic, independent, sovereign Ukraine," not to oust Mr. Putin, or seek a broader conflict with Moscow. Mr. Biden said that this aid will make a diplomatic settlement more likely, as it will strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position. ...

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Growing pressure from within the government from the Green party and the FDP, and from the CDU in the Opposition party, for Chancellor Scholz of the Social Democrats to allow Poland to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine to stall Russian advances. That could lead to a return to peace talks and a settlement is also the idea behind additional military support to Ukraine. Western powers also seek to prevent any further losses on the Ukrainian side and show support after attacks on its electricity infrastructure left most of Ukraine in the dark.

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US plans to keep up with Russian advanced artillery and rocket systems in the invasion of Ukraine by sending its shorter range MLRS rocket system to Ukraine. The MLRS has a short range system that extends for over 40 kms. compared to its long range that goes 186 kms. The US sees the sending of the shorter range MLRS as feasible and not the longer range. Denmark is sending its Harpoon system of rockets that would complement Ukraine's own Neptune system to protect a key Black Sea port of Odessa. US policy is designed to keep Russia from making any serious gains in the war which the US and European Union see as a unprovoked invasion. Popular sentiment in US and EU has backed up the Biden administration.

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The first of four German IRIS air defense systems shipped to Ukraine. The systems can protect an entire city from missiles approaching at altitude of upto 12 kilometres and a distance of upto 40 kilometres. It is designed to quickly boster air defense of Ukraine.

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Germany is taking on a larger role in helping Ukraine as the US Congress Republicans negotiate with president Biden on aid to Ukraine tied to action on the Mexican border. The surge in migrants is causing problems. Zelensky visits Germany as the European Union finally decides to sidestep Orban of Hungary and bring Ukraine into the European fold.

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Stephen Fidler of the WSJ lists 6 factors that will influence the direction of the war in Ukraine.  1. The weather. This will affect operations as muddy wet conditions will limit movement.  2. Bakhmut. Russia is using persistent attacks on this city as a way to show people in Russia that it is making gains in a political effort more than a military one. 3. Ukrainian offensives in the Zaporizhia region in the south. Since this report was written Russia has advanced its forces in this area as Ukraine still awaits western aid in the form of Leopard tanks and other tanks. Russia has called up 300,000 reservists and this is now making an impact in the Russian efforts to advance. 4. Russian defenses. Russian forces are dug in across a smaller front 550 miles instead of 700 after ceding some territory to Ukraine, of which 240 miles are river barriers. Trenches and excavations extend all the way to Crimean beaches. 5. Russian offensives using the 300,000 reservists that were called up and new discipline in the forces. Here experts say the reservists are not expected to do what trained Russian regular armed forces could not do. An attack from Belarus is seen as less likely as massing of forces there would be detected early by western allies of Ukraine. 6. Events outside Ukraine Russia is counting on waning support for Ukraine as Republicans in the House of Representatives raise the debate of the issues in this war and look for alternative solutions. French president Macron's views and German Social Democrats views are also against escalating the war, and are only taking steps for military support one step at a time to not let Russia be seen as coming out of this war as winning by staging an unprovoked attack on a friendly neighbor. ...

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Meet the warrior librarians of Ukraine keen on keeping libraries open and alive.

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A prolonged war increases world food insecurity says this report in DW.com, including a danger of famine in some parts of the world. Ukraine and Russia together provide about a fourth of the world's wheat and other foodgrains. Many Middle Eastern countries and African countries face food shortages.

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Narendra Modi of India visits Poland and Ukraine after visiting Moscow, the only leader to do so and who can talk to both sides, and who believes resolution of the Ukraine can only come outside of the battlefield. After a once in a century pandemic, and with the poor countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America needing trillions of dollars to rebuild their economies, the idea of war in Ukraine adding additional stress to billions of people all over the world, stressing food supplies, supply chains and cost of living, is unacceptable for Modi. He has made this clear to Putin in Moscow during his visit and is likely to do the same in Kviv, to create the conditions for bringing peace to this region and relieve world tensions, help rebuild after the pandemic.

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A sense that president Putin may have seriously "miscalculated" the scale of Ukrainian resistance and that he may not be getting the right information from subordinates. The conflict does not appear to be in Russia's long term interest, making it weaker with western sanctions.

For EU the shift away from Russian oil supplies shifts to supplies from Qatar and other nations and use of LNG terminals. The US and EU will likely see a more effective shift to renewable energy after the Ukraine war. Increased funding for defense in US and EU and the funding for social goals with a wealth tax planned in the US.

China also sees an impact on its economy and long term growth with sharply reduced access to western technology and research, and restructuring of supply chains to be shorter and focus more on South and Southeast Asia, less on China.

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UN sponsored talks taking place to let shipments of Ukraine grain to leave Black Sea ports. The way this would be done is by arranging a safe passage along a pathway that would be cleared of mines for ships to get from Black Sea ports to safer waters. This would still take weeks for the work needed to make this happen. Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia and other Middle Eastern countries are heavily dependent on Ukrainian grain and warehouses in Ukraine need to be cleared for the coming harvest. The head of the UN Antonio Gutierrez and president Widodo of Indonesia had talks earlier with Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelensky to arrange this safe passage for ships in the Black Sea from Ukraine. This would also reduce tensions between Ukraine and Russia and start the process for an end to the war.

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Defense experts in Britain say the part of the Russian army that is modern is not large, and the part that is large is not modern. The Russian advance attack in Ukraine has floundered, says this report in the WSJ. About 25% of the Russian army is made up of conscripts. The hundreds of billions of dollars spent on modernization of the Russian armed forces have been spread thinly, and dissipated also because of corruption and poor management.  The Russian encrypted communications did not work as expected leading to relying on open communications that could be intercepted or jammed. The Russian government and president Putin were still stuck on 2014 and did not realize the determined resistance and the desire for independence of the Ukrainian people. Ukraine is a technologically advanced European country the size of Germany with a population of 40 million, and Russia has an economy the size of Italy, factors that also played a part. The corruption and poor economic conditions in the border Ukrainian republics setup by Russia led many Ukrainians in the eastern border region to question any advantages from Russian rule. The user of poorly motivated conscript soldiers led to many generals and other officers to have to be present on the front lines leading to Russian officer level casualties. The use of antitank weapons supplied quickly from the European Union and the US, and use of small mobile units of Ukrainian volunteer and army forces to tactically destroy the front and rear of miles long convoys of tanks and armored vehicles - leaving the rest of the convoys trapped in between. Logistics also failed to resupply deep inside Ukraine as Russian forces depend on rail based resupply which could not happen without control of cities on the rail lines. The volunteer forces in Ukraine after 8 years of war since 2014 and the immediate assistance with antitank and other military assistance from US, and EU, played a part in the western response to the Ukraine crisis and president Putin's actions.   ...

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The vote in the Senate was 67 to 27 to move forward with the $95 billion aid package to Ukraine and Israel. The bill has $60 billion in military aid to Ukraine, and about $8 billion in economic assistance. $14.1 billion to Israel and $10 billion for civilians in conflict zones. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell leads a determined group of 18 Republicans in the US Senate that support efforts by Majority Leader Schumer to get a bill for Ukraine Israel Aid passed in the next few days. This would also include economic aid for Ukraine and humanitarian aid in the Gaza conflict. Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska says that deterrence is not divisible, American credibility is not divisible." This comes as former president Trump opposes the passage of such aid in Congress. This report says the former president says America's role should be only transactional, and to Russia the NYT reports he says he would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. President Schulz of Germany met with president Biden at the White House this week. After passage in the Senate it faces a challenge in getting enough Republicans to support passage in the House. ...

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In new developments German chancellor Scholz visits London and European Union president Von der Leyen visits Bucha and Kviv in Ukraine. Von Der Leyen is accompanied by Joseph Borell, the EU commissioner for foreign and security affairs. For the first time the European Union offers membership in the EU to Ukraine. In handing a document with a questionnairre to Ukraine president Zelensky she says- "This is where your path towards the European Union begins." Adding "It will not be, as usual, a matter of years, but rather a matter of weeks" to complete this step. The questionairre forms the basis of an opionion she said that gets passed on to the European Council this summer. Ukraine now becomes the first country in Europe to have fought a war and suffered from millions of refugees just to join the European Union. It also shows how much has changed since Angela Merkel left office with her policies that offered Ukraine no such prospect even as it integrated the German economy with the Russian economy and China's economy during 4 terms in office. Leyen said "Ukraine is marching towards a European future." Chancellor Scholz addressed the German parliament after the invasion and hundreds of thousands of people turned out in Berlin that day.  Europe is voting with its emotions having been completely shaken by this experience. Leyen writes " It was important to start my visit in Bucha. Because in Bucha our humanity was shattered." ...

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How the Ukraine war is shaping the arms industry is shown in this report in WSJ.

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Could S. Jaishankar borker a peace in the Ukraine Russia war. Mr. Macron thinks India's Jaishankar and Modi could help set up a peace agreement. Germany's chancellor Scholz visited Beijing and called for an end to the war with president Xi of China. Jaishankar India's most experienced diplomat with long periods as a diplomat in China, is expected to visit Russia for setting up the groundwork for a peace settlement even though its outlines are not evident at this time.