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Nicholas Kristof says the strategy adopted during the Clinton administration of negotiations with the North and a partial lifting of sanctions worked better than the situation today. One criticism leveled at that agreement was that North Korea cheated and developed uranium weapon technology on the side. Yet says Kristof the situation is worse today. Under the "Agreed Framework" of the Clinton administration North Korea's Kim regime did not add to its nuclear weapons. Kristof says that policy of putting pressure on China has not worked. It would help if China did not transfer any technology to North Korea. Yet the basic policy of China remains in that it does not want renunification on the Korean peninsula that would put bring a U.S. ally on its southern border. The Bush administration and the Obama administration's policies did not lead to diplomatic progress and the world is a more dangerous place with North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile capability in 2017. Kristof says it is time to give diplomacy a chance to work. See Bosworth, for how a veteran U.S. diplomat has built channels to North Korea through many years of diplomatic effort.   ...

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SMIC China Shanghai and the latest chip making science and technology,  the competition with the US in chips science, is covered in this report in NYT. The Biden administration and vice president Harris are committed to keeping America's lead in science and technology by investing heavily and working with partners in the EU, South Korea and Japan. For the first time in decades the US is protecting its science and technology and its competitiveness, something that administrations since Reagan- Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Trump miserably failed to do.

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Iranian missiles and drones flying low and close to the ground avoided detection by Saudi and American air defense systems. The missiles and drones hit Saudi oil facilities stopping about half of the Saudi oil production. Iranian cruise missile technology was used for the attack, according to U.S. officials. The attack also showed how vulnerable the oil supplies from this region are to disruption. The U.S. is not dependent on Saudis for oil as it has increased its production from shale. China, Japan, South Korea and India are dependent on Saudi oil supplies. Yet the U.S. is shouldering a greater burden for ensuring reliable supplies to Asian countries, something the Trump administration sees it should be compensated for. Tougher sanctions on Iranian oil hurt its economy, resulting in actions taken by Iran to disrupt Saudi oil supplies. The Saudi intervention in Yemen is another source of tensions in the region. The Trump administration says it is not interested in endless wars in the region, yet its tougher oil sanctions on Iran are pulling it into the conflict in unpredictable ways. China, India, and other countries had sought sanctions waivers to import Iranian oil, and see the sanctions as hurting oil supplies. India with limited supplies of its own was affected by the oil sanctions. ...

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US President DJT says about the Monroe Doctrine on the White House site- "The American people- not foreign nations or globalist institutions- will always control their own destiny in this hemisphere."    DJT says about the Monroe Doctrine -"On December 2, 1823, the doctrine of American sovereignty was immortalized in prose when President James Monroe declared before the Nation a simple truth that has echoed throughout the ages:  The United States will never waver in defense of our homeland, our interests, or the well-being of our citizens.  Today, my Administration proudly reaffirms this promise under a new “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine:  That the American people—not foreign nations nor globalist institutions—will always control their own destiny in our hemisphere." The fentanyl crisis with more dead from drug trafficking in the US across all of the neighborhoods and communities of the Nation than the Korean and Vietnam Wars, World War 1 combined, is of very serious consequences for the White House and the DJT administration. It requires nothing less than the assertion of the Monroe Doctrine so that nothing like this happens again, or is exported from countries in this western hemisphere to dangerously affect the wellbeing of the American People. ...

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In escalating rhetoric President Trump says "my first order as president was to renovate and modernize our nuclear arsenal, and it is now far stronger and powerful than ever before." Adding "hopefully we will never have to use this power." This was received favorably in Tokyo as part of America's nuclear deterrence, and less favorably in Beijing. The North Korean government responded with a statement that it would consider an attack on Guam.

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This New York Times Editorial Board says the Indian border with Pakistan is a more dangerous place for escalation into nuclear conflict than North Korea. The lull and the calm after the initial hostilities is deceiving says NYT. It says the Trump administration needs to take an active role to reduce tensions and China needs to take firm action in opposing terrorist activities conducted from Pakistan into India. 

It also points out that even though this is seen as not possible there is still the need for India, Pakistan and Kashmir to talk about solutions that could work instead of just giving up and continuing as before. Without mentioning it NYT appears to be saying that other intractable conflicts have been resolved including in the Balkans (religious conflict), in Ireland (religious conflict), with the right kind of effort and determination, and men of goodwill on all sides.

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President Macron of France puts forward the basic building blocks for an agreement to reduce tensions with Iran. In a speech to the General Assembly of the United Nations he says that there should be negotiations between Iran, its regional neighbors, the U.S. , European countries and China. The Obama period nuclear deal of 2015 failed because of a lack of a comprehensive settlement and including Iran's neighbors in the region. Macron pointed out that the U.S. approach under president Trump of "maximum pressure" with tighter economic sanctions has produced a response from Iran of maximum pressure on its neighbors, including the attack on Saudi oil facilities with drones that took out half of the Saudi oil supplies. Macron put forward five issues for negpotiations to focus on: certaity that Iran never acquires nuclear weapons, solution to the Yemen civil war, a regional security plan that addresses other conflicts, ensuring security of maritime navigation especially in Straits of Hormuz, lifting of economic sanctions. He pointed out that "today we have a risk of serious conflict based on miscalculation and disproportionate responses." Mr. Trump even alluded to this when he told reporters after the dismissal of John Bolton as National Security Adviser, saying Bolton made Trump look like a voice of moderation. A lot depends on who are the advisers and whether moderation is exercised on all sides.  Macron, Merkel and Britain's prime minister Johnson met with Rouhani on the sidelines of the UN meetings to encourage dialogue. Countries likely to be severely affected by oil shutoff through the Straits of Hormuz are Japan, South Korea, India and China, and are quietly pushing for an easing of tensions.  ...

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This report in the Washington Post looks at the events leading to the firing of Stephen Bannon, the controversial advisor to the U.S. president. Bannon, a right wing populist, joined the Trump campaign in the late stages. Bannon is seen as one reason for the chaotic situation at the White House that White House chief of staff Kelly is trying to correct. Reasons for Bannon falling out of favor are his interference in the affairs of other departments, his opposition to Gen. McMaster, national security advisor, and an interview he gave to liberal magazine American Prospect, in which he openly derided Gary Cohn, economic advisor. In that interview Bannon contradicted the policy of the administration towards North Korea. 

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Noonan of the WSJ says it is important that cooler heads prevail in the Korean missile crisis. She says it is important that cool and calm voices prevail for the U.S.- the voices of the generals surrounding president Trump- McMaster, Kelly and Mattis. The statements by president Trump are seen as reckless. Any comparison to the Cuban missile crisis with rational players on both sides is refuted by Noonan. Krushchev and Kennedy cannot be compared to Trump and Kim Jong-Un. The U.S. had conversations with Ambassador Dobrynin and Foreign Minister Gromyko of the Soviet Union at the time, the U.S. has no contacts with the North Korean government. The situation is vastly different and as retired Gen. James Thurman, head of U.S. forces in South Korea 2011-2013, points out in a NYT report, the dangers of miscalculation are high.

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The Trump administration is looking at ways to protect U.S. automobile manufacturing by enforcing stricter environmental rules for automobile imports. The EPA is looking at whether VW which has 3.5% of the American market can be asked to meet stricter standards because the diesel emissions scandal gives the U.S. legal justification to set stricter emissions rules. VW has accepted that it used illegal software to evade government emissions tests. Such non tariff barriers are faced by the U.S. companies in Japanese, South Korean, Chinese markets. It is not clear how this would affect the 17.1 million cars made in NAFTA factories with parts made in one country and shipped for assembly in another country, between Canada, Mexico and the U.S.

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Efforts by president Macron to setup a meeting between Rouhani of Iran and president Trump in New York to reduce tensions of miscalculation and disproportionate response after the attacks on Saudi oil facilities by drones and missiles. Macron says the "maximum pressure" sanctions placed by the U.S. are resulting in Iran placing "maximum pressure" on its neighbors. The Yemen civil war is fought by proxy.  One outcome appears to be the Houthi rebels backed by Iran in Yemen announcing a unilateral ceasefire. And the Saudis announcing a ceasefire of their own. This gives the European Union, the U.S., Saudis, Iran, China and Japan, time to consider the implications of the counterproductive approaches of the different sides to give enough room for new talks. Iran nuclear deal, U.S. relations with Iran, and any new talks on these issues are now seen in a different way. The nuclear deal is now linked with other issues in the region, including building peace in the region. Countries that depend on oil flowing through the Straits of Hormuz such as Japan, China, South Korea, and India are now also involved as silent partners pushing for peace in the region.  ...

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Attacks from Iran on Saudi oil infrastructure leading to a loss of half of Saudi oil production is likely to be a problem for countries such as China, South Korea and Japan that have reduced oil imports from Iran and increased dependence on Saudi supplies. This was a result of tighter U.S. oil sanctions on Iran. India is also affected. About 30% of the lost production will be restored say Saudis.  The U.S. is less dependent on Saudi supplies and as Gerald Seib points out in a video in WSJ the U.S. has 3 reasons not to intervene on behalf of Saudis. The U.S. has increased its oil production from shale oil and is less dependent on Saudi oil. It is also becoming reluctant to engage in Saudi Arabia's wars such as the one in Yemen against Houthi rebels. There is also less support in Congress and in the country for supporting endless wars that originate from Saudi actions. A Trump tweet before his election campaign shown in WSJ makes this point about endless wars and the U.S. needing to be paid trillions of dollars for these wars. The conflicts in the region affect China and India where growth is close to 5% before any impact from oil price increases. Together Asian countries take in 72% of Saudi oil exports and China now imports more Saudi oil than Russian oil by a wide margin- in June 1.88 million barrels a day. Saudi oil makes about 19% of imported oil in India and 33% for Japan. Imports into India of Saudi oil are up 8% this year to 847,000 barrels a day in 2019. China is better situated than Japan with reserve supplies of 644 days of imports compared to 230 days for Japan. This why Japan has played a constructive role in reducing tensions between the U.S. and Iran and urged both sides to negotiate. China and India also have interests that converge in reducing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. As a first step president Trump removed his National Security Adviser John Bolton in preference for reduced tensions.  ...

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Limit China's involvement in your economies for reduction in reciprocal tariffs- this is the message from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who leads the negotiations with Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. The Trump statement read yesterday April 14 by Katherine Leavitt was as follows- “The ball is in China’s court. China needs to make a deal with us. We don’t have to make a deal with them. China wants what we have…the American consumer,” Leavitt said when reading Trump’s statement.  The idea is to reduce any leverage China has to ignore the US interests in restoring its lost industrial base shipped by American companies to China, in one of history's astonishing happenings that make economic theories useless. It is only a common sense and fairness that can provide a solution to this problem, the kind of fairness that the US has given throughout its history since 1800 to other nations. ...

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Jared Bernstein of the Economic Policy Institute points to trade barriers reducing competition and free trade that should raise an outcry when free trade and competition advocates focus alone on the Trump steel tariffs. He points to estimates that show $90 billion in additional costs to Americans from the barriers that prevent Americans from paying world market prices for surgeries and medical treatment, prices similar to what is paid in advanced countries like Germany, Britain and France. A bigger barrier in pharmaceuticals prices being sheltered from market competition worldwide costs a huge $370 billion in additional costs to Americans. These two costs in healthcare would help Americans by a magnitude compared to tax cuts that do not work for average Americans with the business tax cut going more into share buybacks than into increasing wages or capital investment in 2018.  Bernstein points to Neil Irwin's column in the NYT that flags statements such as Senator Mike Lee, Republican, that the steel tariffs are a huge job killing tax hike, as being misleading. Bernstein says two actions were never taken that would have used benefits of free trade to help affected communities that lost jobs in industries such as steel and textiles, other industries affected by foreign competition.  He lists these steps as sectoral employment training, apprenticeships ,and job creation efforts in the worst affected areas. Basically no one really knows what is good trade policy, the textbook concepts and theories are out of date when countries can subsidize particular industries such as steel and dump products into the American market. At a press conference on CSPAN with the Swedish prime minister Mr. Trump stated that China was exporting more than what is officially shown as there are transshipments from other countries, some of them with no steel mills.  As Mr. Trump stated at that press conference he was elected partly because of the worst affected communities- in places such as Michigan and other states in the midwestern U.S.- that suffered from unfair trade. Bernstein admonishes the economists and politicians, media, for the headlines that are misleading in showing that bad trade policy is being pursued and trade wars are being started. This deserves attention because the Trump administration and advisors such as Lighthizer who served in the Reagan administration seek fair trade, and the Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross successfully pushed for NAFTA trade deal renegotiation not the outright rejection of NAFTA that was mentioned in the election campaign. Ironically no one is helped by this trade rhetoric and misleading headlines. In fact the strengthening of the U.S. currency as the huge trade surplus of China goes into U.S. assets, and with the election of Mr. Trump, gives foreign competitors a continued advantage. And in fact Japan, South Korea, China, had a mild response to the tariffs as reported, because these countries are aware of global overcapacity created especially by China which produces 50% of the world's steel, and as China shifts to higher technologically value added products closing many older steel mills. ...

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As the trade problems with the U.S. escalate in tit for tat tariffs, China looks back at its history for parallels. The period of the "unequal treaties" imposed by the Western powers on China in the period 1850-1900, the Korean War of the 1950's, and other analogies that come up to people. Yet China's planners and leaders are looking at another situation the Plaza Accord of 1985 in which the western nations pressured Japan into accepting a significantly higher exchange rate to reduce its trade surplus and the Japanese yen appreciated by 50%. Japan cut interest rates from 5% to 2.5%, and introduced huge fiscal stimulus, banks opened up to lend vigorously. The result was a boom by 1990's followed by a bust that led to another decade of lending to loss making firms called "zombie" businesses, that led to a stagnant economy. This has persisted for three decades. This China sees as an unacceptable situation when China has still not achieved developed economy status in terms of per capita incomes. It fears getting into a middle income trap as the economic growth slows and the aging population makes a recovery more difficult.  The difference with Japan in the 1985-1990 period is that Mr. Trump lacks the kind of five nation economic coordination that put pressure on Japan. Today there are differing views on China in Europe and the U.S. and different policies. Mr. Trump is known for his style of deal making and could settle early, as feared by some Republican leaders in Congress who see in China a challenge to America's technological dominance. There are no calls to appreciate China's currency. Only calls for China to change its state subsidies model and put in writing and through laws that change the way of doing business that does not require American companies to hand over advanced technology. This is also a concern for Japan and the European Union countries such as Germany, and is something all nations try to protect in global competition. Japan is still facing the consequences in creating a new competitor in high speed train technology after building the first high speed trains in China and transfer of the high speed train technology by Kawasaki. The Household Survey by the Federal Reserve showing the financial fragility of 40% of American families shown on this page today shows how this situation is likely to evolve as working class families in the U.S. support a trade stance that protects American jobs and technology. Job losses over three decades and a $891 billion trade deficit in 2018 are seen as unacceptable to the U.S. in 2019. A stronger U.S. dollar helped increase the U.S. trade deficit by 10% in 2018, nullifying some benefits of Mr. Trump's trade actions. Mr. Robert Lighthizer was a negotiator in the trade dispute with Japan in 1985, and runs the negotiations with China with support from president Trump. This alone has kept the Japanese situation in 1985 uppermost in the minds of China's leaders as they try to come up with a way to settle the trade dispute with Mr. Trump.     ...

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Hilsenrath describes how the Federal Reserve missed the signs of the mortgage financial crisis of 2008, the bubble economy, and how low interest rates and other actions of the Fed to rescue the economy led to a situation which hurt savers. The lack of a serious plan for homeowner rescue as part of the actions by the government further hurt the working and middle class. The rescue also lacked credibility because the banks ended up becoming bigger than they were, and no action was taken in the U.S. which had been pushed by the U.S. in similiar situations overseas- for example on South Korean banks for overborrowing during the 1997 Asian financial crisis.  At the 2014 Boston Fed sponsored conference on Inequality, Fed chairman Janet Yellen described what she called the largest inequality in the U.S. not seen since the 19th century. The average net worth of the lower half of the distribution, said Yellen, of 62 million households, was $11,000, and a quarter of them had zero net worth. These were the shocking statistics that propelled two unlikely outsiders forward- Donald Trump to the Republican nomination for president, and Bernie Sanders who coming close to getting the Democratic nomination settled for a big part of setting the Democratic agenda supported by nominee Clinton in 2016. ...

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Western nations including Europe, Canada, Japan and South Korea, are members of the International Enerrgy Agency, which has 1.5 billion barrels in reserve. The IEA will release oil from its reserves to support president Biden's plan to release 180 million barrels over the next 6 months. OPEC that includes Russia plans to increase production by only about 432,000 barrels a day.  During the Trump administration Saudi Arabia and Russia were at odds on production levels leading to Russia increasing production to higher levels than OPEC would allow. This led to a temporary collapse of oil prices to levels as low as $30. To help the US oil fracking industry which could not operate at these low prices president Trump brought the two sides together into what is now OPEC+. The Biden administration has ties with both Iran and Saudis, and aims to revive the Iran nuclear deal, withdrew support for Saudi air strikes on Yemeni Iran backed Huthi rebels. In this geopolitical situation Saudis are reluctant to respond to US calls to increase production as they have done in the past. With climate change and the COP26 agenda in Glasgow there is a plan to shift away from fossil fuels such as coal and oil that are supplied by OPEC and Australia. This means that a shift away from Russian or Saudi oil is also a shift towards renewable energy such as wind and solar which is needed to combat climate change. The Ukraine war and efforts to wean Europe away from Russia sourced energy will accelerate the changes needed to tackle climate change, even though the US fracking industry will step in to increase production at oil prices at $100+ in 2022. After 2023-2024 the push for conservation and renewable energy from today's crisis and Glasgow COP26 commitments, sharp slowdown in China and renewable focused India is likely to bring down oil prices to reasonable levels for a transition period to renewable energy. ...

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The US and Japan are coordinating efforts to limit transfer of sensitive technology to China and increase trade and cooperation within the G-7 in high technology sectors. Efforts are being coordinated with South Korea. Janet Yellen says the IMF has overblown the effects on the world economy from the US decoupling from China. IMF reports have also in addition presented India incorrectly as a non aligned country, when it is a close partner of the US. In 2023 US is the largest trade partner of India.The US position is to limit flows of technology in sectors considered vital, and continue world trade in other areas with China. US is committed to friendshoring to India, Vietnam and other countries. Germany's three parties CDU, Greens and SPD are reversing close trade and technology links with China. This is also the policy of the Modi administration which seeks close trade and technology ties to US and EU. The shift is in response to what is really an overconcentration of the supply chain in China that happened as business in the US and EU and the Merkel and the Bush-Obama-Trump administrations failed to see the risks of overconcentration. And carried out misguided policies in trade and investment that are now being reversed by US president Biden, Kishida in Japan, and Modi in India. ...

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It is hard to imagine that one is even writing about this, as shocking as it is- the 4 or 5 minutes between a decision to launch nuclear weapons and the end of life on this planet earth as we know it. Here Sam Nunn, a U.S. senator who was part of the negotiations for arms control and who is the leading American in this field talks about the unimaginable danger. He says the strategy from the Cold War where Russia and the U.S. put their nuclear forces in a position to be launched within minutes, 4 to 5 minutes, is outdated and needs to be changed. Hillary Clinton described the issue in the television debate. Yet this was not discussed because of the nature of the 2016 presidential election with lack of serious discussion.  And both Nunn and Clinton emphasize that once the missiles are in the air they cannot be ordered to go back. Accidental error, judgemental error, informational error in which one side thinks the other has launched a missile, a firing by mistake, are possible. In this situation Nunn says Trump is temperamentally unfit, and Clinton is fit to take on the responsibility. Yet the question this raises is as Nunn signals- is anyone but God fit to make this decision to launch nuclear weapons. Nunn says it is outdated and wrong to have only a few minutes, as such a decision cannot be made in a few hours or days, much less in 5 minutes. Nunn brings up a discussion he had in Moscow when he brought this up with Russians and president Putin. Russian president Putin told Nunn that he was fully aware of this. Putin's response was- "Senator Nunn, at some point it becomes automatic."  Nunn does not clarify what this means, or what Putin means to say. For people on the planet it is not enough to have Reagan, Gorbachev, Clinton, as Nunn mentions being responsible people for a nuclear decision. The current state of affairs is simply shocking and the lack of attention to this is also shocking. Equally dangerous is that 20 countries have weapons usable nuclear material, and sophisticated hacking of command and control processes is another danger.       ...

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10% tariff on Canada's exports to the US after Ontario Reagan ad misrepresenting trade facts is aired on television. The ad seeks to show US tariffs in the light of the Smoot Hawley tariffs of the 1930's, when the tariffs today date back to Reagan's use of tariffs when Asian partners (at that time Japan in the 1980's) followed unfair trade practices to the detriment of American workers and industry. The US Trade Representative who acted for Reagan was Lighthizer, the same USTR who worked for DJT in the first term to fight the unfair trading practices of China, and whose deputy USTR Jamieson is now the USTR in DJT second term negotiating with Asian partners. Tariffs ae being used as an additional tookl in the toolbox by DJT and Lighthizer/Jamieson to counter the unfair trading practices of other nations, which includes partners of the US such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and EU. It also includes nations such as Switzerland who ignored US interests in trade whie having open access to the US market. Most of these nations know that these practices harmful to world trade exist, only Canada, China and some other countries have pretended they do not exist and they are the so called "champions of free trade." These nations attempt to make DJT appear to be doing this on whim when this is an issue in trade relations between the US and Asian partners, the EU, and Canada/Mexico for the last 50 years. DJT pointed this out- “The sole purpose of this FRAUD was Canada’s hope that the United States Supreme Court will come to their “rescue” on Tariffs that they have used for years to hurt the United States,” Mr. Trump said in a social media post Saturday afternoon. “Because of their serious misrepresentation of the facts, and hostile act, I am increasing the Tariff on Canada by 10% over and above what they are paying now. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” ...