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Bill Keller reflects on Mandela's contacts with and one time participation in the Communist party. At the time the communists were the only organization with whites supporting the ANC, as the ANC was completely black. The result in shaping Mandela's thinking were positive in his views for a multiracial South Africa. Communist type liberation ideology has also hadicapped African countries including the ANC party in that it has failed to bring in new thinking and different views. Keller brings special insights into this behaviour as he covered both the Soviet Union 1986-1991, and South Africa 1992-1995, for the NYT.

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The Times describes key points in the freedom struggle of South Africa and the part played by Desmond Tutu. Tutu as much as Mandela played a critical role in reconciliation between Afrikaaner people and black people in South Africa. He coined the word "rainbow nation," and resolutely pursued racial unity in the face of the most difficult situations and oppression using the methods Gandhi had used in 1900 in South Africa.

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Young South Africans, the so called born frees- born after the end of Apartheid and free elections in 1994- are diillusioned with the African National Congress of Nelson Mandela. They are disssatisfied with the lack of jobs, a poor education system, and tired of the corruption scandals under former president Jacob Zuma. A recent IPSOS poll shows only 55% of 18-24 year olds supporting the ANC compared to 61% overall. Some polls showed support dropping from born frees to below 50%. Almost half of the 58 million people of South Africa are born frees. Their view is expressed by one mother of three living in a shack in Alexandra Township in Johannesburg. She says we tried the ANC but are still living in squatter camps and dirty places. Only the ANC's reach into rural areas, its superior organization, and lack of viable alternatives, are likely to keep the ANC back in power. The Economic Freedom Fighters led by Mr. Malema, a former head of the ANC youth wing is likely to double its vote to 12% from the last election.  ...

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Support for Mandela's African National Congress, the ANC, has dropped as it fails to manage the economy for growth to meet aspirations of young people. Support dropped to below 40% and a majority for ANC in parliament is unlikely in the upcoming election. The pandemic hit South Africa hard and the weak economy, lack of growth, high unemployment, are serious problems.

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Johnson and Johnson vaccine is 66% effective in a single shot, a 44,000 trial study has shown. Remarkably it is 85% effective in serious illness and prevents all deaths 28 days after it is given. It is also shown to be as effective in serious illness and deaths in South Africa and 57% effective overall. The South African variant was a cause for concern in the second wave in 2021.

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As this report in WSJ shows underreporting of coronavirus cases is a serious problem for Africa, and the figures from Africa's CDC, part of the African Union, do not show the magnitude of the problem. It shows that health workers in places from Yaounde in Cameroon to Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, to cities in Somalia, are reporting a situation quite different from what the CDC shows, with hotspots emerging in some places with little in the way of resources.

Only 1 million tests have been done and half are in SOuth Africa and Ghana. WIthout the testing it is hard to know how many cases there are. Capetown area in South Africa is emerging as a hotspot and hospitals are expected to be overwhelmed within weeks. Officially Tanzania a country with 56 million has 509 cases and 21 deaths, yet this contrasts with reports from health experts. Cameroon and South Sudan are also possible emerging hotspots in addition to Tanzania says this report in WSJ.

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The problem of lack of vaccine supplies in African, Latin American and South East Asian countries needs immediate attention. With vaccine supplies going unused in America and Europe because of vaccine hesitancy, all of Africa and much of Latin America, parts of Asia lack vaccine supplies.

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This report in DW.com shows pictures and podcasts from Africa's National Parks and Wildlife Centers. Africa's tourism industry brings in billions of dollars from international visitors with each traveler bringing in about $7000 to the local economy. Most affected are hotels, tour companies and small business. There is a sense that government could do more to protect small business in Uganda, Kenya,Tanzania, South Africa, Ghana and other countries. Also being considered is finding ways to shift focus from high paying foreign tourists to a a larger local visitor population in African countries. Today Serengeti National Park in Tanzania, Amboseli National Park in Kenya at the foot of Mt. Kilimanjaro, Kruger National Park in South Africa, Victoria Falls National Park in Zimbabwe, Sanganeb Marine National Park in Sudan, and Tassili n'Ajjer National Park in Algeria with Tuareg nomads in the desert deep in the Sahara, are some of the National Parks with few international visitors. Local are working in alternative occupations. There is a sense that a better focus would be to a less paying but dependable tourist influx from within African countries.  ...

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The problem facing Africa is whether vaccine supplies will run out before new vaccine supplies come from America, Britain and France. Only less than 1% of African people have been fully vaccinated out of a population of 1.3 billion people. US president Biden said America will provide 500 million doses of Pfizer vaccine to poor nations before the G-7 meeting in Cornwall, UK. Britain added 100 million and France 30 million doses. With new more transmissable variants out there Africa is in considerable danger today. The Delta variant from India has been shown to be about 70% more contagious than the Alpha variant from Kent UK. It is already the dominant variant for new cases in the UK. The new variants are now spreading in Africa. Cities such as Johannesburg, South Africa, and Kampala, Uganda are seeing a surge in cases. Another problem in Africa is that governments are increasingly reluctant to impose strong lockdowns because of the economy. Already it is believed that Africa's middle class has been severely affected during the last 18 months. ...

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The CDC Africa says Africa has recorded over 100,000 confirmed cases for a continent of 1.3 billion people, but as the WSJ reports on May 23 there is a high degree of underreporting. The number of cases the CDC says is about the same this week on May 22, as the cases were last week.The most cases are in South Africa at 19,000. 

Three countries have an increase of 100%, making it a situation that will need vigilance. So far 1.3 million tests were conducted. This report in DW.com contrasts with the WSJ report on May 23 which sees major problems developing in hotspots in Africa from Tanzania to Cameroon, in South Sudan to the Cape town area in South Africa. Cape Town hospitals are expected to be overwhelmed in weeks.

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A look at the graph showing inflation adjusted GDP growth in the South African apartheid years of 1980-1994, show GDP declines in 6 of the 14 years, with 3 years of decline in the last 5 years of apartheid rule. Which shows that the economy was suffering from a combination of world sanctions and the war with the African National Congress to defend apartheid. In 1996 an agreement was reached with the ANC to transfer power and end apartheid in South Africa. Some of the pressures against apartheid came from the business community's perceived interest in maintaining growth. This has been borne out by the graph showing the inflation adjusted growth in the years of ANC rule starting in 1995, which show a striking difference with growth between 4-6% for 1995-2008, high growth rates for 13 of 14 years, and slight decline in only one year 1998. This bears out the policy of business and a democratically elected government with respect for minority rights, and black-white-colored and tribal loyalties being reconciled to goals of economic growth and democracy. For two years Nelson Mandela head of the ANC maintained continuity in economic policies by retaining the white finance minister from the previous apartheid government. In 1996 Trevor Manuel who had little economic experience- who worked as an activist to organize protests against high bus fares and rents under apartheid governments- was made finance minister. He has been finance minister now for 13 years, and only resigned when President Mbeki resigned after losing the leadership election of the ANC. In the early years he controlled government spending to pay off South Africa's tremendous debt. He brought down inflation and built up foreign reserves. After the election of Jacob Zuma, another ANC veteran, supported by young black people, in September 2008, and his likely win in the current election, it appears that Zuma will retain Trevor Manuel. This ensures continuity in the face of the global recession, especially hitting commodity producers like South Africa. South Africa compares favorably with Nigeria in economic growth and modernization, spread of mobile phones, computers, literacy rates, but suffers from high unemployment, and low life expectancy. Pressures are increasing to do more for unemployment, address the crumbling infrastructure, and provide more help to the poor. Zuma has the support of the unions known as Cosatu and the Communist party, and of young blacks, in a country where one third of the population is under 15 years of age and over 40% of the population has mobile phones. South Africa has the largest economy in South Africa, is larger in land mass than Nigeria, has about 45 million people - a third of the population of Nigeria with 127 million population which has fertility rate of 5.6 twice that of South Africa- and GDP of 213 billion compared to $72 billion for Nigeria. Literacy rates are 82% for S. Africa and 68% for Nigeria, showing that higher literacy rates are lowering fertility rates and population growth. The figures are from the 2007 Economist pocketbook World in Figures. A strong press and media provides check on corruption which siphons away development funds in the public sector in commodity dependent countries like Nigeria. The private sector controls commodity exports of South Africa. So even with the relative lack neglect of the poor and unemployed in South Africa, and of health care, South Africa has done better overall than Nigeria. Average annual inflation was 5.1% in South Africa, compared to 15.7% in Nigeria, and this hits the poor the hardest. It goes to show that when it comes to modernization it helps to be inclusive, reconciliation oriented, and bring together all the resources of the country including a vigorous press and media, and business, regardless of color, race, creeds, faith, tribe or caste....

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The high unemployment rate in South Africa.

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Nadine Gordimer is a South African writer who brought up issues of racial oppression and bad administration under the Apartheid system, colonial Africa, and under the ANC. She is known for books like the "Conservationist" which depicted the life of a South African industrialist who tried to distance himself from the black tenants on his farm but found himself unable to control the events around him- with his wife and son leaving him and a flood damaging his farm. Through the stories she told of the ultimate hopelessness and futility of the system of colonial rule and of the Apartheid system segregating and isolating blacks in poverty.

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Lydia Polgreen and Marcus Mabry talk to black and white South Africans in Bloemfontein, the capital of the Afrikaaner Orange Free State. The National Party which started Apartheid as state policy in 1948 and the African National Congress were both founded in Bloemfontein. The accounts provide insights into race relations in South Africa and the growing gap between the economic condition of black and white people. After free elections and about 20 years of ANC governments under Mandela, Mbeki, and Zuma, progress has been made in primary and secondary schooling but most blacks are falling behind in the skills needed in a modern economy as shown by the widening income gap from $17,000 in 2001 to $30,000 in 2011. Less than 40% of South Africans socialize with other races, according to SA Reconciliation Barometer. 22% of whites and 20% of blacks live in racially integrated neighborhoods. 11% of white children and 15% of black children attend integrated schools. The result is a South Africa where a lot remains to be done after Mandela....

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The French British collaboration effort will bring a new vaccine to the global effort against coronavirus. This vaccine was expected in February 21. It will be ready by the third quarter of 2021 just as vaccine supplies are being ramped up. The Sanofi Pasteur unit and GSK Glaxo SmithKline are the two companies in this vaccine venture. This vaccine will address the problem of new mutations of the virus in the British and South African versions and can be stored at normal temperatures. 
 

The new vaccines will boost supplies just when the situation is bleak for vaccine supplies in Latin America and Africa, South East Asia, places left out in the vaccine race in advanced countries and in India. Britain has ordered 60 million doses. 

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For the regions hardest hit by the coronavirus and its variants- the US, Brazil, India, Europe, Russia, China and Africa, the researchers and the frontline workers in South Africa are doing an incredible job. This report by Stephanie Nolan in the NYT shows the work of researchers at KRISPS advanced medical research center and the frontline workers in South Africa, who are making a difference. Shown are researchers and scientists at KwaZulu Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform in Durban, South Africa on whom the world depends for stepping up the fight against the coronavirus- Dr Tulio de Oliveira, principal investigator of the national genetic monitoring network, and Saleem Abdul Karim, epidemiologist. On the frontline workers who visit patients homes to make sure immune compromised patients have access to their medications is Sizakele Mathe, community health worker. Stephanie Nolan has provided a much needed account of what work is being done on the frontlines to keep us all safe. ...

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Omicron cases are up in an almost vertical line on a graph with cases doubling every 2-3 days in the UK, similar to the pattern in South Africa during the beginning of the spread in South Africa. Since then early data in South Africa show the trend in the province of Gauteng, center of the omicron outbreak in South Africa in the Johannesburg area, has reached its peak. On Dec. 16 it recorded 27% of national infections compared to 70% the week before. Head of the National Institute of Communicable Diseases in South Africa, Michael Groome, says "we had areally dramatic increase in Gauteng, which has now leveled off."  Hospital admissions in South Africa show a different pattern than earlier hospital admission rates in previous waves, with only 1.7% of cases being hospitalized in this Omicron wave compared to 19% for the Delta variant wave at a similar point in the wave, says Health Minister Joe Phaahla. In UK as of Dec. 14, this WSJ report cites health authorites saying 73% of cases in London are omicron variant, doubling every 1-2 days, with omicron making up 41% of all cases in England. In the US the Centers for Disease Control show Omicron variant making up 2.9% of all cases in US as of Dec. 11, with highest concentration in New York, New Jersey of 13.1%. Proportion of positive tests went up from 3.3% to 5% in New York City. A convention in New York City, Anime convention at Javits Center, November 23, 2021, shown in a recent NYT report, could potentially have acted as a super spreader event in New York according to NYT though not confirmed, similar to football stadiums events in Italy in March 2020. Dense atmosphere and large crowds increase the risk of a super spreader event happening, say experts. ...

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Black and white pictures from The Guardian of the roles played by Sidney Poitier, who died at age 94, showing black people with new dignity and freedom during the fifties and sixties. The struggles of this period ended segregation in the US. The struggles from the fifties started the fight against Apartheid in South Africa. Sidney Poitier played a role in the emancipation in South Africa with the 1951 movie made from the classic book Cry The Beloved Country portraying the troubles of Apartheid segregated society. In 1996 he played the role of Mandela with Sidney Caine as De Klerk in the movie on the reconciliation and the end of Apartheid South Africa. Between these years he took part with Harry Belafonte in the March on Washington made by Martin Luther King in 1963. 

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Coronavirus positive cases over 20 million, with the hardest hit countries U.S., Brazil, India, South Africa.