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"The whites are here to stay," a line in a paper prepared by Kissinger set the policies of the Nixon administration supporting Apartheid in Africa. NYT in this report on Kissinger points to his involvement of the US in the Angolan civil war on the side of South Africa as he did not understand the popularity of liberation movements. Kissinger was steeped in the Austrian and German politics of his original home country Germany from the Napoleonic period to 1914 covering Metternich in Austria-Hungary and Bismarck in Germany. He also failed to grasp the popularity of liberation movements in Indochina. As a result of these policies many many hundreds of thousands of lives were lost, which cannot be said of Secretaries of State before him. Jefferson, Madison and Adams, and Seward for Abraham Lincoln, Elihu Root for Teddy Roosevelt, Cordell Hull for FDR, George Marshall and Dean Acheson for Harry Truman, John Foster Dulles for Eisenhower, George Shultz for Reagan. Kissinger served only for 3 years and the lives lost are incredibly large. We think of Geroge Marshall and the Marshall Plan that rebuilt post war Europe, Seward's role with Lincoln in the Civil War, and Cordell Hull's fight for freedom of Asian countries including India under Gandhi.  And we can see why there are such strong opinions for Kissinger almost seeing Kissinger as a Napoleonic figure where power faced the hundreds of thousands of lives lost with complete indifference. There is the opening to China yet this happened simply because as a coincidence of events in China in 1970 after the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution led to Lin Piao incident and China seeking a connection to the US more than Kissinger's own policy or plans. David Sanger's account of his conversation with Kissinger simply says he just "shut up and took notes."  ...

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"For all my grandfather's travels, he structured his life so that he was home in Plains to teach at Maranatha on Sunday. It was central to his life."

"Every time I went to church with him it was packed. The line started before sunrise and I was always very thankful that I got to walk in with my grandmother."

Josh Carter in his eulogy to his grandfather Jimmy Carter, a Southerner who lit a little candle in America in 1976.

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This article in The Times says UK business has already moved to ESG, the idea that business is also about environment, social and governance, ahead of Thatcherite era cabinet ministers Rishi Sunak, Priti Patel, Liz Truss and Dominic Raab. This was evident during the Tory conference in Manchester.  Boris Johnson is moving in line with voters and ahead of his ministers who are aware of the changes in the conservatives appeal to voters. Johnson is not attached to any preconceived idea of what the Tories are about. His only concern is to be where voters are and think like the voters, this is where he is happy being. Voters in Britain today think business is more than being about profits. New polling by the Social Market Foundation shows changing attitudes in the Conservative party and its supporters. In 2016 48% of Conservative voters thought it was important to remove regulations and rules for business. In 2021 this has fallen to 27%. Today economic fairness is a big concern. Inequality was a concern for 15% of Tory voters, today it is 28%, higher than Tories concern about removing regulations. Business leaders have also moved on after the Brexit referendum and see the need for meeting a social purpose. Some business leaders think the Thatcherite thinking of some cabinet ministers is "decades out of date." ...

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After over two decades of focus on GDP growth targets, China under prime minister Li Keqiang is giving more emphasis to job growth and problems of air pollution, education, and quality of life indicators. Premier Keqiang tells a news conference in Beijing in March 2014 that China needs to create 10 million new jobs each year. More bond defaults can be expected as the financial system is being changed with new rules. Li says China will no longer be "preoccupied" with GDP growth targets. Li made the new priorities clear-"The GDP growth we want is one that brings real benefits to our people, helps raise the quality and efficiency of economic development and contributes to energy conservation and environmental protection."

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India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, who has decades of experience in foreign affairs and relations with China, says in his personal observation the border stand-off with China has "significantly impacted" public sentiment in India. Recalling the tense period after 1962 from memories as a child and a young person, he sees some of these memories coming back. This is a real danger for China says Jaishankar, as it will dissipate the carefully developed goodwill in India. Jaishankar was not only the longest serving Indian ambassador to China but also one who set up cultural contacts in 30 cities for Indian culture in China during the period 2010- 2013. Earlier during 1996-2000 he was Deputy Chief of Mission in Tokyo, Japan, and is married to Kyoko who is from Japan. His relationship with East Asian countries is a rare asset in India's foreign service. In Jaishankar's words- "We are being tested. I have every confidence that we will rise to the occasion and meet the national security challenge." This comes from experience tackling India China border disputes during his period as ambassador. One such situation can be mentioned. In 2013 the PLA encamped in India's Ladakh region in the Depsang Plains. A scheduled trip of premier Li Keqiang to India in 2013 was about to be cancelled before the PLA withdrew.  ...

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The question remains why the defamation law has remained a part of the Indian Constitutional law and the Indian  Supreme Court has upheld it. Under Britain there must be the sense that this would have put the unified subcontinental government at risk. Under India post independence this could be seen as an effort to keep the unified country India that emerged from the British Indian rule together as one nation. It may not be individual to individual defamation that underlies the spirit of this law. Its spirit may lie in keeping together as one nation a country with many languages and people after centuries of foreign rule by not letting the spirit that keeps it together be undermined in any way or form. Gandhi and the independence movement before Gandhi created the spirit for a new nation from many peoples and languages, this has now taken the form of timely delivery of the services and infrastructure that these peoples are entitled without any dilution of any sort, after all the hard work, sacrifices and aspirational effort of an earlier generation of leaders. ...

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Most newspapers in Britain talked about the need for unity of the Conservatives if they are to survive the failure of three prime ministers May, Johnson and Truss, and the complexities of Brexit. The Daily Mirror is skeptical and asks "Who Voted for You" in its headline. Brexit brings working class supporters who favor government support and higher spending in an alliance with  traditional Conservative party policies of cutting taxes and austerity cuts in spending. The result as Gerard Baker points out in the WSJ today is one of abject chaos ,as happened in the undoing of Liz Truss with her tax cuts for the rich, financial market chaos, and immediate resignation.

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China's prime minister Li Keqiang leads the task force tackling the coronavirus outbreak. He visits the city of Wuhan to calm anxiety and frustration about the outbreak. The lunar new year holiday in China which starts now is being extended to Feb 2.  Shanghai and Beijing city officials are advising returning workers not to return till February 9. The rural areas are a weak part of the link in the effort to stop the outbreak. Millions of workers return to cities after visiting homes in rural areas during this holiday period.

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This 40 minute IMF Video looks indepth into how far the Paris Agreement on Climate Change of 2015 has moved the world to address 1.5 degree change in climate? What is the situation in 2023 as we move towards 2030? NIcholas Stern of LSE says the peak of emissions will be reached by 2024 however the curve will not be pretty as the drop in the curve will be a small dip in emissions not steep drop that we need. Action is needed to accelerate.. Pilita Clark of the Financial Times conducts a discussion with Nicholas Stern of the Grantham Institute at London School of Economics, Bo Li Deputy Managing Director of IMF, and Zhou Xiaochuan who heads China's Boao Forum and formerly was Governor of the Bank of China.

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The Times takes a good look at Liz Truss, who she is, what are her good points and areas she will need to work on. It says Truss was ignored by Conservatives including Theresa May after  being brought in by Cameron as Environment Secretary in 2014. She comes from a intellectual family with her father a Math professor and her education at Merton College, Oxford University. She also had the opportunity to build on her economics and accounting background at Treasury, and at the Ministry of International Trade where she signed a number of trade deals for Britain.  What has changed her was her decision to learn and develop on her own after being ignored in the Conservative party. She shifted from Remain to becoming an aggressive supporter of Brexit and coming out decisively for Boris Johnson as prime minister.  She is willing to challenge the Treasury and others in the civil service when she feels she needs to. Her challenge says The Times is to develop the skills that are needed to work with others and take the country forward. One advantage she has is that she has confidence in her own experience and education to have strong personalities work in her team. Another quality that helps her is that she is not ideologically a conservative, so that she is willing to try new ideas to get the economy working and move Britain forward. And adding to that she has the depth that Cameron and Johnson lacked with her experience gained in parliament, at Treasury, in the International Trade ministry, and recently as Foreign Secretary. She may well be the underestimated candidate compared to a mostly predictable Sunak. ...

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Robert Kaiser, former managing editor of The Washington Post, reviewed this book on Joe McCathy in The Washington Post on August 7, 2020. It shows the link with today of Senator Joe McCarthy and Roy Cohn, the then 27 year old lawyer chief counsel of the senate subcommittee on investigation when Joe McCarthy became chairman in Jan. 1953. The book is-  Demagogue The Life and Long Shadow of Senator Joe McCarthy by Larry Tye. Roy Cohn passed on some of the methods used at that time to Mr. Trump. Kaiser points out that the senator Joe McCarthy assembled "a coalition of the aggrieved." Tye shows that it started with the junior senator from Wisconsin making a speech in West Virginia for Lincon Day dinner to the Republican ladies of Wheeling, W. Va. The senator used it to talk about threat of communists working in the State Department. He claimed there were 205 Communists. Today we know that this was just made up by McCarthy, at a time when Winston Churchill made the speech about the Iron Curtain in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union and a sense of shock in America at the People's Republic of China being formed in 1949 under CCP chairman Mao tse tung. McCarthy saw this as an opportunity to gain prominence and a Senate career. What is seen from this carefully researched book is that for a while it succeeded in putting many of the Nation's best leaders on the defense. This includes Harry Truman, Eisenhower himself who disdained McCarthy's and Cohn's methods, Gen George Marshall who was a mentor to Dwight EIsenhower, Joe Stilwell, and other military leaders who ran the 1940's war effort under Marshall in Europe against the Nazis and in China against the Japanese imperialists. On the domestic side it included the head of TVA and the new Atomic Agency setup by president Truman. Gallup said at that time of McCarthy's 38% support in the US following his censure in US Senate by 67-22  -even if it was known that McCarthy killed five innocent children they would still go along with him. Tye writes that in that atmosphere similar to the sense of shock at China's rise and America's loss of manufacturing and falling behind in infrastructure by 2016, in that atmosphere if one told a small lie or big lie it made not much difference in public's penalty or censure, then why not tell a whopper of a lie. This became the ethic for a while in 2016-2024 similar to the period till the collapse of McCarthyism in America by 1957 with McCarthy's death in 1957 and in 1960 the election of John F. Kennedy. What is forgotten is that Richard Nixon a young senator from California was part of the group in Congress, so that in some shape or form it existed and remained part of the Reagan efforts to push back against the Soviets that led to wars in Afghanistan and then Iraq sapping the Nation's energies and resources and with faulty economic theory allowed China to dominate key industries and outspend America in infrastructure investment, creating the kind of shock that led to the second McCarthyist decade under Mr. Trump. ...

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Liz Sly of the Washington Post provides this exceptional account of the different phases of the war in Syria originating in 2011 with the Syria democracy protests, suppression of protests by the Assad regime, civil war by 2012 , Russian intervention by Putin, the U.S. under Obama and France under Hollande on the sidelines in 2012-2014. The result is a breakup of Syria by 2014 with coastal areas under the Assad regime supported by Russia and Iran, the Kurdish controlled areas, areas controlled by various rebel groups, and the control of other areas by Islamic State which also gained control of Mosul in Iraq. France conducting an air campaign in Syria in 2015 in response to terrorist attacks originating in Syria. With a number of foreign countries involved in support of Sunni and Shia factions in the conflict, the Turks opposing Kurdish autonomy, the U.S. supporting Kurdish forces after withdrawal from Iraq under president Obama, the situation by the beginning of 2016 was much more complex than in 2011. The five year period led to a situation where half of the population of Syria of 22 million is displaced or turns into refugees, about 2 million in refugee camps in Turkey, and 500,000 seeking asylum in Germany and Austria. In Iraq an additional 2 million are displaced or refugees with the Sunni-Shia conflict. Understanding of the events and insights over these 5 years can be gained from the group- "Events for the democracy protests and the struggle for freedom in Syria." The intervention of foreign countries and the missing element of U.S. leadership in the region in 2011-2015 as the U.S. and France remain preoccupied with economic crisis, lead to a situation where most Syrians decide to leave the country entirely. ...

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This report in The Times take a look at the work Liz Truss has done as International Trade Secretary and now Foreign Secretary. Truss does not want Britain to become economically dependent on China. More than Johnson Truss is a UK Atlanticist who wants the UK to work with the US and the EU to build a western world that is entirely independent of China. Looking at her work and experience it would appear that Truss is the most underestimated of the candidates for prime minister, much more so than Sunak. She can be strident and aggressive but she has gone through a process of thinking and studying before that with a willingness to try new ideas. She come from an intellectual  family and one that was active in left wing activism. She studied at a comprehensive school in Leeds before going to Merton College Oxford  to study philosophy, economics and politics, and was willing to change her thinking when persuaded about a different course of action to get better results. She also gained the knowledge she needs to do her own thinking with experience first hand as Chief Secretary at Treasury, Secretary of International Trade, and as Foreign Secretary, getting trade deals with Australia and negotiating with other countries. Cameron, May, Johnson lacked this kind of knowledge and experience. And Sunak also falls way short of this kind of knowledge acquired and experience handling international assignments key to Britain's advancement after Brexit. ...

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WSJ Owen Fletcher's interview with Robin Li, CEO of China's internet search site Baidu Inc. Li describes his plans for growth. He sees opportunities in a landing page where Baidu builds its own content and integrates the content on the search result pages. The Qiyi venture is a online video streaming site with Baidu search users directed to this site when searching for such content. Advertising would show up on Qiyi. Baidu has started a Japanese search site. Li is a 41 year old engineer who worked in Silicon Valley before starting Baidu in 2000. Baidu now has 70% of the Chinese search market compared to Google's 24%. Li says he follows China's laws and has found that most search users are interested in terms other than the censored ones- in entertanment, lifestyle and business fields.

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With Britain preoccupied with Brexit, and the U.S. in a trade dispute with China, Chancellor Merkel remains the only western leader to visit and hold extensive talks with Chinese leaders Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping. She also visits other Chinese cities such as Wuhan and gives a speech at Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, in which she commented on the social credit system being implemented in China about the social creditworthiness of individuals and businesses.  Merkel sitting next to premier Li Keqiang in Beijing advocated "that conflicts be resolved without violence and that anything else would be a catastrophe." She called for a peaceful resolution of the situation in Hong Kong and for Hong Kong's rights to be "guaranteed." This is significant because the close cooperation between Germany and China is critical for China today to tackle the economic problems created by the trade disputes with the U.S.  Merkel has a close relationship with Chinese leaders and has visited China many times, giving her the confidence to talk to Chinese leaders without arousing any sensitivities about internal affairs of China. She is the only leader who can speak her mind to Chinese leaders, without offending them. When she used the word "catastrophe" she chose it carefully. It took decades for China to build the trust and relationships with Europe and the U.S. that it has.  Trading relationships matter for both China and western nations and are built on trust and good relations. With the Shenzen region growing faster than Hong Kong, and thinking like Beijing, China could tackle the situation in Hong Kong over a long period. ...

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The Standing Committe of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist party will have seven members including Li Keqiang, the new prime minister and Xi Jinping, the new president. Most of the other members are close allies of former president, Jiang Zemin, who began the now three decade old the modernization effort after Deng Xiaoping initiated economic reforms. This leaves a clear imprint on the Standing Committee of 86 year old Jiang Zemin. The incoming president Jinping is supported by Jiang Zemin, and this should make it less difficult for him to make economic changes say experts. Hu Jintao, the current president could not get his way in making appointments to the Standing Committee, except for selecting his protege Li Keqiang. Hu was able to select members for the 25 member Politburo who are likely to become members of the Standing Committee in 2017, when many of the current members in their mid 60's retire as required by party rules.

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Rachel Donadio and Liz Alderman of the New York Times interview Alexis Tsipras, leader of the Syriza party that is expected to win the June 2012 elections in Greece. He says his party calls for suspension of payments on loans for 3 years till Greece's economy recovers, and renegotiation of the agreements that require large layoffs in the public sector and other austerity measures.

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Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry said in a nationally televised debate with Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, Michelle Bachmann and Ron Paul, that "maybe it's time to have some provocative language in this country." He did not hesitate to call Social Security "a monstrous lie," and a "Ponzi scheme." He said making economic decisions on the basis of climate change science is "nonsense," saying Galileo got outvoted for a spell. And he had this to say about Obama, Rove and Bush. About Obama- "has some of the poorest intel of a president in the history of this country, or he was an abject liar to the American people." About Karl Rove- "Karl has been over the top for a long time in some of his remarks, so, you know, I'm not responsible for Karl anymore." And Bush- "I don't think America needs to be in the business of adventurism."

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"The most nervous time of my life is when I was waiting for my A- Level results," says Liz Truss in this interview in The Times with Tim Shipman. More nervous than now when she is running for the leadership of the Conservative Party says Truss. She really cares for education considering the time she talks about it. And childcare is something Liz Truss cares deeply about.

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This briefing in the Economist says China now faces a difficult transition to its next phase of development, in which the government is trying to change the model used by Deng Xiaoping of export led development to a consumption based economy. That model produced spectacular results between 2000 and 2015 when the middle class went up from 5% of the population to 25% of the population, as measured by people living on more than $20 a day in 2011 $ purchasing parity, as reported by IMF, EIU. The problem China faces is can this development stall if it fails to tackle problems in the next phase, with an aspiring group behind the new middle class left behind. Recent jump in the stock markets volatility, devaluing of the currency, and confusing signals sent by the government have hurt its credibility. Demographic issues with an aging population, the destruction of the environment with rampant development, and how to manage this next phase of development with respect for the constitution and the rule of law replacing the high corruption levels, are serious challenges. Experts say it will be difficult to manage a transition to the next phase of development without some degree of democratization. The rise of the internet and the social media have created more avenues for expression, which gives the government some guage of public opinion, especially in tackling pollution, mismanagement, and other problems. The government sees the need to manage things carefully, with rising unemployment posing a problem as growth slows and the government closes down inefficient manufacturing facilities. ...

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Lim Chow Kiat, chief investment officer of GIC Pte. Ltd, Singapore's sovereign wealth fund, says he sees returns on financial assets in developed markets being much lower in future years, including possible negative returns, because of a sharp runup in recent years and changing monetary policy. He sees more opportunities in emerging markets because of younger populations and opportunities from overhauls to economic structures and behaviour. He says he will still look for opportunties in developed country companies that have significant international expansion. GIC invested $1 billion in Indian online retailer Flipkart recently, $680 million in Bank of the Philippine Island, and $1.3 billion in the Time Warner Center building in New York along with Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.

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Current UK approval ratings show Labour losing a lot of support and would be he largest party but lead Tories by about 10 seats. Keir Starmer's unfavorability rating is about 61% and his favorability rating at about 27% by Ipsos in December 2024. Kemi Badenoch's is worse than Rishi Sunak and at negative 5% net approval (difference betwen approval and disapproval) approaches the negative 9% of Liz Truss. 

Reform UK of Nigel Farage could increase it's seats in parliament to 71 from 5 seats. Liberals would have close to Reform UK seats and Greens 8 seats. Labour according to one poll would have 256 seats to Tories 208. Labour could have a tiny majority with the help of Liberal Democrats compared to the landslide recently on 60% of eligible voters actually voting.

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Keith Bradsher visits Guangzhou, China, just as prime minister Wen Jiabao tells the National People's Congress that China is changing its priorities from high growth to sustainable development. As recently as 2007 GDP growth reached 14%! The minimum wage is expected to rise 13% each year under the five year plan. Even with the increase in wages owning an apartment is unaffordable in Guangzhou- a 1000 square feet apartment costs upward of $300,000, showing the extent to which the bubble in real estate prices affects young people who cannot afford to own an apartment. A new graduate with marketable skills such as computer engineering makes about $6000 a year, putting owning an apartmet beyond reach. Another change he notices today is that during visits to construction sites he does not see flood lit sites at night. This used to be the case because builders were scrambling to build. With government policies discouraging the property bubble there is no longer a need for work at night. The focus now has shifted to build low income housing....