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As large companies such as BP and Shell sell off oil and coal projects, smaller competitors in the energy field are buying these projects with the idea that the transition from coal and oil will take longer. The smaller energy companies bet that coal and oil will be the main source for energy for developing countries in Asia and Africa and that the underinvestment by the large companies will boost commodity prices. Numbers support their thinking as coal, oil and natural gas are expected to be source of 76% of global energy consumption in 2030. In 2019 this was 81%, according to the International Energy Agency. Because of the rising demand it means using even more carbon intensive energy.  India is making big strides in renewable solar yet the energy demand in the future will also jump further as India modernizes its economy. The trend is all in the direction of renewables yet the time it takes will depend on demand and the cost reduction of renewables with new technologies. ...

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Aizenman in this must-read describes the National Soda Summit and the presentation of one man Todd Putnam, a former executive from Coca-Cola that throws light on one of the truly important things that happened in the lives of Americans in the postwar period of development and growing prosperity. This is the development of marketing and advertising and its singular application in the case of Coca Cola to promoting sugary drinks. It is also related to what even business people describe as the single biggest problem in America. And it is happening at a time when the story is being repeated in developing countries such as China and India. Putnam describes the exhilaration, he and other Coca-Cola managers felt when the graphs at internal presentations showed Coke passing milk in consumption per capita in America. Several other facts stand out in Putnam's description of his experience- the ignorance on health issues among his marketing peers, the huge marketing prowess and dollars brought to bear once a goal such as increasing per capita consumption of sugary drinks was set- he was hired out of Purdue by P&G and worked at Disney before joining Coca-Cola- and the focus on the 12-24 demographic with 90% of all soft drink marketing targeted at this segment. What he regrets most is the focus on minorities who suffer some of the highest levels of obesity in America. No mention is made of the efforts underway in developing coutnries such as China and India which are seeing a surge in obesity rates and diseases such as diabetes. Coca-Cola says 41% of its sugary drinks are low calorie, but compared to milk, fruit juice and other healthier alternatives where does this rank? The cost to the nation's health care system alone would show that the performance of Coca-Cola's stock price over the postwar period came with a price tag that was never even thought about, when healthier alternatives as health drinks companies have found sell well when well marketed and formulated for different groups....

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The split of the global internet into three with the emergence of a closely monitored internet in China, and Google developing the Dragonfly version to enter China in cooperation with the government. The European Union will have its own version that rivals the U.S. with its own regulations and rules. Each has its large home base. A fourth base is in South Asia where a home grown internet is still to develop. The split will be based on home versions such as Baidu in China and Google, Bing, Safari in the U.S. and the EU version with different rules for privacy and protection. Openness, limits, regulation, government rules and control in home countries, will characterize the patterns in each. This Editorial Board article in NYT says the U.S. version may not end up being the best.

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India's central bank chief, Raghuram Rajan, points to the risks for developing economies from changes in monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Indian rupee lost about a fourth of its value in 2013 as the U.S. Fed announced plans to withdraw from its quantitative easing policies. Large depreciations in other developing economies, Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil, happened at the same time. Rajan and India's Reserve Bank increased the interest rate by half a percentage point in 2013 to deal with the impact on inflation as a result of the large depreciation of the rupee. The volatility of capital flows and sudden reversal in inflows of capital to developing economies leaves these countries exposed to sharp declines in economic growth. India's growth has slowed to 5%, larger than expected from the slower growth in the global economy in 2013, largely as a result of decreases in direct foreign investment and capital outflows.

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The asset price bubbles developing in many countries in 2010-2012 with loose monetary policy.

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Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar makes a 3 day visit to Saudi Arabia. He addressed diplomats at the Prince Saud Al Faisal Institute of Diplomatic Studies in Riyadh. He will co-chair with Prince Faisal bin Al Saud the first ministerial meeting of the Committee on Political, Security, Social and Cultural  Cooperation (PSSC), established under the framework of the India-Saudi Arabia Strategic Partnership Council. What is happening here is that the Saudis can build their own ties in the region as they choose what is best for the future, compared to the relationship in the past which was as a state mainly dependent on the US but which sorely lagged behind in educationally, culturally, in developing its own scientific and technology institutions to transition into the modern age. The relationship in the past also appeared to be rooted in the colonial period that had transitioned only half way out of the colonial period into the relationship built by America's FDR and succeeding presidents with the royal family and monarchy of Saudi Arabia. Under Mohamad Bin Salman it now gives Saudis an opportunity to make its own choices with the help of neighbors such as India, Japan, and other countries. It also strengthens the relationship with the US and the EU in unseen ways through the Saudi relationship with India, Japan and other countries. Bilateral trade is at $30 billion for FY22 April to December. India imports 18% of crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia. Indian imports worth $23 billion, Indian exports worth $7 billion to Saudis. About 2.2 million Indians are living in Saudi Arabia. During the pandemic India was the closest health ally of the Saudis.   ...

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Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is interviewed by Ashok Malik for the Economic Times in this videocast. On what India did right and lessons learned from addressing the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, inflation, Sitharaman says-Getting input and listening to people about what was needed and the pain, was critical in developing the financial plans. On the realization of India's potential in manufacturing, exports, and industrializing its economy, Sitharaman says-India's strength is its rule of law, so that the country is tolerant of criticism including of the prime minister, and there are democratic institutions that protect ordinary citizens, the business and other sectors. Also important is friend shoring as expressed by US Treasury Secretary Yellen alongside Sitharaman, that sees India as a favored destination for the US and the EU. The efforts to develop first rate infrastructure and logistics removes impediments to foreign investment. Training and education of workers is part of this effort to create a supply of trained labor for foreign investment factories in India. The competition between states is also part of this effort to build attractive locations for foreign investments in manufacturing in India. On 20th century financial institutions transforming into 21st century institutions for the IMF, the World Bank and other international financial institutions Sitharaman says- India has full support from all G-20 countries on debt crisis of countries in Asia and Africa, Latin America to change the way in which help is provided. And the skills are put in place to access financial markets on terms that help meet the aspirations of the people in poor countries or middle income countries, including some G20 countries such as Argentina. Sri Lanka she says, is an example where India is the governor and representing the country at the IMF and World Bank for its financial needs. India took up the interests of Sri Lanka with the G20 and the US, so that the loans are not delayed or given in ways that lead to the country exiting the program, unable to meet the aspirations for development of its people. Sitharaman says the G20 found complete agreement on 15 issues facing the world out of 17 issues, these two related to the war in Ukraine and that too from only 2 countries. This suggests that the media focus creating a general perception of lack of unanimity does not reflect what happened at the G20 meetings in India, and is distorted. What really happened is that all countries agreed on the substantial economic issues facing the world- of food insecurity, of development needs, and of climate change impact.  Sitharaman's responses showed optimism based on the hard work put in at the Finance Ministry and connected to all ministries and agencies of the government. And of a resilient attitude, of concentrated effort on the issues facing India and its partners in growth in the US and EU.  ...

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World Bank to raise 5.5 billion dollars for a fund to help developing countries use clean technology to combat global warming and climate change.

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Do you ever wonder how Japan keeps it streets so clean. There are no litter bins or street sweepers to be seen. This report in the BBC News looks at Japan's cleanliness ethic starting from school days for children growing up with the idea that clean is what you make happen with your own two hands and a broom. That is all it takes and a sense of personal responsibility infused into the culture from school days as children.  For 12 years of school life from elementary school to high school cleaning the school is part of the school routine for students. The social consciousness was developed in this way and children as they grow up learn to take pride in their cleanliness and in the cleanliness of their surroundings. This carries over to cleaning up the neighborhood.  In India's Swachh Clean India campaign their are street clean sweepers in addition to people themselves taking on the job of cleaning. This is ok for public facilities like railway stations underbridges and other public facilities, but for neighborhoods and schools making cleaning a part of the routine in schools is a good idea that needs to be universally adopted as part of Swachh India, Clean India campaign. This also holds true for all Asian and Latin American, African nations which could learn from the keeping the country clean efforts of Japan and more recently India. As India shows not having done this well before is no reason for discouragement, getting started and keeping it going, building public awareness and support is the key. This is particularly true for developing countries because it is easier to prevent illness and disease by increasing levels of hygiene and sanitation, saving hundreds of millions of dollars for large countries like India and Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, for days and productivity lost. It also pushes countries to the next stage of development faster through infrastructure development and quality of public services, quality of life.    ...

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A study by the national Petroleum Council which continues to emphasizes the energy constraints as developing countries expand and conservation lags behind in the USA.

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Efforts at Caltech and MIT to produce hydrogen based energy from light absorbing materials that combine sunlight and water vapor to emit hydrogen. Three innovation hubs have been set up by the U.S. Energy Department including the Joint Center for Artificial Photosynthesis at Caltech. The project has $122 million in funding from DOE. The research is especially applicable for a product that can be used to provide energy in developing countries - using existing resources and providing a small power station as it were for each home without the large energy needs of developed countries.

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Petrobras and the discovery 200 miles offfshore of the Tupi field with estimated reserves of 5-8 billion barrels of light crude oil. As Brazil is self sufficient in energy with its own ethanol industry helping substitute ethanol for oil at the pump, it can become a major exporter with this find. However even with Petrobras technology and expertise in offshore drilling its a challenge as the oil is 4.5 miles below the oceans surface, and involves drilling through 7000 feet of water and 17000 feet of sand rock and massive salt layer. Cost could approach $20 billion according to analysts with current inflation in oil drilling rig costs. It involves challenges like building floating liquefied natural gas plants. Gabrielli, the Petrobras CEO thinks Petrobras has the expertise to develop it on its own. If oil majors are given the chance to join in the development the investment terms will be ones that favor Brazil. Gabrielli pointed this out saying that Brazil had already incurred most of the risk in exploration offshore so the oil majors have far less risk and Brazil should invite them only on its own terms if needed. The Tupi field puts Brazil ahead of Canada in oil reserves and in the leagues of China and Nigeria, with new Brazilian reserves at 17.2 billion from the 12.2 billion barrels currently. Brazil has invested in refineries with 2 new refineries coming up in 2010 and 2014 to increase refining capacity by 40%. It is also investing to convert heavy crude oil into diesel and $8.6 billion to reduce sulfur at 11 refineries. The Tupi field will take about 7 years to develop. Similiarly the Kashgan field in the Caspian in Kazakhstan is also in difficult in this case icy and gases filled environment that will take years for a Eni led consortium to develop. When oil does come will the demand situation have changed with new conservation taking hold in the developed world and the cars in developing countries more like the Tata Nano at 54 miles per gallon consuming less gasoline? Even with increase in energy needs of developing countries, improved efficiency and new technology for conservation brought into developing countries could if not significantly reduce, at least moderate demand. To the point where prices drop from $100 a barrel to something more affordable to developing countries....

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The importance of microsavings in addition to microloans in poor parts of developing countries. In West Africa some businesses charge 40% to take deposits. In poor villages often money that sits around is spent on unnecessary things or gets wasted, especially when the savings can improve the lives of people there. Kristof talks about one family in rural Nicaragua that would spend alarge part of its savings $1.75 on three litre bottle of Coke. With Catholic Relief Services offering a padlocked woodbox in which villagers could put in one dollar or 50 cents, a culture of saving is developing. Now the Machado family buys Cke only once a week and the rest of the time puts the savings of$10 a month in the CRS box.

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China's efforts to build its own core technologies in chip production leads to a ban on American manufacturer Micron for supplying China's chip needs. This allows Chinese companies to fill the need as China pursues its own Made in China model similar to America's Made in America model that president Biden is taking up to catch up with Taiwan. The title is a misnomer as there is no clash as such with the US when countries are developing their own safer supply chains as the US is doing and working with its European allies on this. In fact the competition is with Taiwan, in an effort to correct a mistaken decision for the US under the pressure of laissez faire advocates in the US to not let the federal government support American chip makers that over two decades has created this huge gap with Taiwan. Laissez faire means to leave alone, which came at the wrong time when competing nations including Taiwan and South Korea were supporting their chipmakers aggressively and covertly and presenting their costs as something the US could not compete with. US president Biden has every intention to correct his and the Biden CHIPS Act is only the first step to do this.  ...

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With funding from the International Finance Corporation, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and other developing countries with shortfall in energy supplies are building offshore LNG terminals. The demand for LNG in these countries is expected to surpass the demand in developed countries.  IEA estimates show 90% of global LNG demand growth by 2022 coming from these emerging economies. Shortages of electricity in places such as Karachi and Dacca are the reason for the growth. Putting LNG terminals offshore is a viable and economical alternative. Petrobangla is completing a offshore LNG terminal by 2018 with IFC funding. Pakistan completed a floating LNG terminal at Port Qasim in 2015 for importing LNG from Qatar. This terminal alone covers 30% of the needs not met from domestic supplies in Pakistan for gas, according to Engro Elengy data.

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Obama's offer to Russian President Medvedev for the U.S. to back off from a new missile defence system in Eastern Europe in exchange for Russian help to stop Iran from developing longrange nuclear weapons. The U.S. argument is we don't need these interceptor systems if Iran ceases building its nuclear capability, and the U.S. system is designed for countries like Iran and not against Russia.

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Karabell points out that Egypt ranks 137 in the world in per capita income (behind Tonga) and a population in the top 20. Two thirds of the population is under 30 years of age. The young in Egypt have no future with high rates of unemployment and little of the industrial development that you see in other large developing countries such as China, India, and Brazil. The 30 year rule of Mubarak also stifled any opportunity for public participation in the political process. During that rule Mubarak consciously decided to not pursue rapid economic development, something China has done even though it has a lack of public participation in the political process. As a result Egypt simply fell behind while the rest of the developing world improved opportunities in education, incomes and job opportunities.

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Xiaomi, a maker of smartphones in China, traded for about US$2.15 per share on the Hong Kong stock market on July 9, 2018 after its IPO. Xiaomi was valued at US$43 billion, about half of the value that was expected. Reasons given by experts are that Xiaomi is one of a number of smartphone makers in the highly competitive Chinese market. Xiaomi has about half of its sales in India and other countries where it sells low cost smartphones with more value based on features included. Problems that it experienced in Brazil in connecting with national carriers made investors cautious about Xiaomi's market position in other developing countries. Limiting its profitability is its position as a hardware maker in a competitive market, without the profitability of other internet companies. Xiaomi surged in the last decade in China as a local producer of smartphones that provided features of more expensive brands at a lower price. It built a following as a quality local brand in China. ...

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The European Union Commission says Ireland must recover 13 billion euros in back taxes for giving tax preferences to Apple that are against EU rules. The EU Commission says Ireland allowed Apple to pay a corporate tax rate of 1% on its European profits in 2003, and .005% in 2014. The EU Commissioner says the use of Ireland as the place where Apple pays taxes on operations in Europe has no base in reality, as most profits are earned in other countries outside Ireland. Taxable profits of Apple "did not correspond to economic reality," according to Ms. Vestager, the EU Commissioner.  In the current environment where political upheaval is unsettling the democratic process in the U.S., Britain, Spain, France and Italy, as well as in Brazil and other countries in the developing world- because of deep recessions, and efforts to cut the deficits with deep cuts in state spending including in education and healthcare, basic services- the moves by companies to reduce taxes to these absurdly low levels such as .005% when other companies in the EU are paying 12.5%, is becoming increasingly unpopular. As pointed out in this BBC News article this sounds like the way Carnegie, Rockefeller and Vanderbilt operated during the late 19th century, and were seen as operating in a manner that was above the law. Janet Yellen pointed out at a Boston Fed Conference on inequality in Oct 2014 that the bottom half of the distribution or 62 million households in the U.S. in 2013, had a net worth of about $10,000, One quarter of these households had a net worth of zero dollars. The working class and blue collar workers in the U.S. provide much of the support at Trump rallies. Younger college educated people support Sanders, because of the situation of the working and middle class in the U.S., and a similar situation exists in Europe. It is for the sake of the democratic process and delivering services in education, healthcare, and other basic areas to all, that companies small and large need to pay their fair share of taxes, regardless of size, influence, or technological advantages. Today this is is seen by most leaders who draw public support as the right way forward for the U.S., Latin America, Europe and Asian countries, including proper allocation of resources to best serve the needs of working people. For example the 13 billion euros is equal to all of Ireland's healthcare budget, and 66% of its social welfare budget.    ...

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World Bank President Zoellick's view on 2010 for the global economy. As the IMF forecasts tend to be more of an extension of wht one sees today and less anticipatory of rapidly changing environments and dangers, the World Bank's Zoellick's personal assesssment carries weight. HE sees no longer a collapsing economy but complacency. He sees amultipolar economy and wants to see developing countries with 50% of the voting rights at the World Bank.

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Comments in an interview by the World Bank's new chief economist Kaushik Basu on problems for global job creation. He served as chief economic advisor to the Indian government for the last 3 years. He talks of the drying up of trade credit with the eurozone crisis that is hurting exports of developing countries. Basu also emphasizes the importance of addressing the unemployment problems in developed countries. The World Bank's annual development report shows 200 million people unemployed and seeking work globally. And 620 million youth-many of them women- are neither working or looking for work. He is on leave from Cornell University.

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Brian Deese and other economists remind us that the government is still not able to negotiate the prices of drugs with pharmaceutical companies something that government was instructed not to do under a Republican administration with a George W. Bush administration rule that has hurt millions of Americans since 2003. In fact December 3, 2003 may be a day of ignominy for Americans who face high cost of pharmaceutical drugs, and actions that send money from the pockets of government that would go into fixing aging infrastructure, and from pockets of ordinary Americans that would go into meeting the cost of living to improve ease of living. President Biden without the needed majorities in Congress was able to only specify certain drugs on which negotiation could take place. There is a need to cut pharmaceutical costs for the American public, there is a need to be like everybody else in the community of nations in Europe and Asia that pay only so much for pharmaceuticals not many times more. Making the US worse off than Indians and Chinese who can access these drugs and find it affordable for most of the people of 3 billion in these countries. The contrast makes one question what is a developed and a developing country as what has happened in the last 3 decades in America has turned this  question on its head- with irresponsible presidents and irresponsible Congress. ...

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The global financial crisis is expected to reshape the direction of globalization. Western finance will be re-regulated. Second as concerns about food security take prominence in countries like India and China inflation and how it affects food prices will result in governments taking an active role in this area. Thirs America will lose economic clout and intellectual authority. Emerging economies like Inida, China, Brazil and Russia and other countries are having a large influence on the direction of global trade now this will also extend to global finance. But even after the re-regulation of finance in western countries and changes also in emerging countries that are seen as necessary in the light of the global crisis, the global economy will still find the model of markets if carefully done and respect for individual initiative with a proper role of government but limited role, he attractive model to follow. Easterly comments on this for developing countries. See the link.

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The Sri Lankan economy, jobs and growth are affected by economic relations with India, loans and assistance from India, and from investment from India in the 2025 period. USAID plays very little part in jobs and growth. This is true of other countries.  In the past the USAID was seen as part of the activity of the State Department overseas yet kept separate so that aid would not be based on US diplomatic activity. Over time it became a place which supported what critics call bureaucrats pet projects in developing countries. Many developing nations have advanced in their development and no longer need USAID projects, this includes India, Indonesia, China, Vietnam, Brazil, Chile, and parts of Africa. Because development aid was at one time critical as in the period when John Kennedy came to office in the Cold War with the Soviet Union, many nations in Asia and Africa were just becoming independent there was a sense from that time that its acitvity and budget was somehow both independent of the State Department and sacrosanct. As a result it became a target of critics and did not advance the US interests overseas as the US Information Service, the VOA Voice Of America and other agencies have done. A country's development no longer depended on USAID. Why does it need to be separate when it should advance US goals and interests around the world which are benevolent- consider that it is the US that helped build up the Chinese economy and still provides it with a large market. ...

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President Obama picks Dartmouth College president, Jim Yong Kim, as the U.S. choice for president of the World Bank. Kim is a physician who co-founded Partners in Health, a nonprofit organization for providing health care to the poor. He was a former director of the Department of HIV/AIDS at the World Health Organization. Working with Partners in Health in Lima, Peru, mid-1990's, he helped establish a large scale treatment program for drug resistant tuberculosis. Such programs are being promoted in 40 countries since then. Under the leadership of Mr. Zoellick, the World Bank provided $57 billion in assistance to low and middle income countries in 2011. About $90 billion was raised in a fund to be used for aid to the poor in developing countries, including China and India.