LyrArc Article Gist
India faces tariff of 25% with policies of reliance on Russia for arms and oil,  Mexico Canada and South Korea face higher tariffs August 1 2025 as they are holdouts now that UK, Japan, EU, Indonesia, Vietnam have agreements with the US on trade.

LyrArc Article Gist
A 2024 US International Trade Commission report by David Riker of the effects on imports of 25% US tariff shows a 75% reduction in imports and a 5% increase in US prices.  It would lead to large new investments in the US auto industry in different states. Hyundai recently announced a $21 billion investment plan in the US and building of a steel plant in Louisiana. General Motors will increase investments in the US and expand production. Other Japanese companies will make large investments for a presence in the US market.

"A new 25% tariff on U.S. imports from outside of North America would reduce vehicle imports by 73.9%, increase average prices of vehicles in the United States by 5.0%, and increase variable profits from domestic production by 5.2%." David Riker, USITC

 

LyrArc Article Gist
As the August 1 deadline approached first the Japanese and then the Europeans who held out till the end sometimes treating the US with disdain and ridicule, realized that the US was dead serious about tariffs. Even the US business community tended to treat DJT tariffs with disdain not realizing that the tariff battles were first fought against Japan by Deputy USTR Robert Lighthizer under Reagan in the 1980's always to get a fair deal for the US. The recalcitrance of the Europeans and the Japanese can be understood by the non tariff barriers Japan placed on US products and the 10% tariff on US autos the European Union had in place for decades when the US only had a 2.5% tariff on German car imports.  The media in the US and Europe has utterly failed to tell the US side of the story. Here at Lyrarc we remain committed to bring out all the facts so that readers can better understand both sides. Initially the EU adopted an adversarial approach as shown in this report in WSJ by Kim Mackrael and Brian Schwartz. How is it that the Europeans and the Japanese took such a position when since 1980 there was no level playing field for the US on world trade clear for all to see? Not till late May as negotiations dragged on did Japan and the EU take stock of their own positions, DJT having to say US would impose a 50% tariff to get the EU to understand, saying "our discussions with them are going nowhere." In the end in Scotland Leyen and Sefovic for the EU accepted 15% tariff on EU imports to US. Akazawa of Japan had accepted this the week before. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The difference between US imports and exports is down from $418 billion in 2018 to $280 billion in last 12 months (August 2024 to July 2025) showing the impact of tariffs and policies of the DJT administration to level the playing field and for getting out of the trade deficits that hurt American jobs, workers, and communities. Tariffs of 20% for fentanyl issue and 125% made it 145% for import tariff on China after Liberation Day. These were lowered to 30% after trade talks. This where it stands today. 

The figure of $280 billion is higher because of transshipping by China through Vietnam- for transshipping the 20% tariff on Vietnam goes up to 40%. Another aspect of the figure of $280 billion is that it is last 12 months which reflects 5 months of the Biden administration, and the surge in imports before deadlines when DJT tariffs would come into place. Battery imports are up, smartphones, toys and apparel is down.

LyrArc Article Gist
For 2025 US stocks S&P 500 returns 19%, foreign stocks in Europe 36%. An extraordinary year for foreign stocks with Germany's big investments in the economy. Actually the average S&P stock was down 3.7%. It was the large investments in AI that propelled the US stock markets S&P 500 to the 19% gain.  AI investment may take a long time to be profitable and some companies may lose money yet the building of data centers creates demand for construction activity, and tariffs are bringing larger investments into the US economy. Media skeptical about tariffs led to many missing the surge in stocks. It was the same overseas after years of Merkel and limits placed in the constitution on needed spending, and the SPD coaltition struggling to get through FDP obstruction to investment spending. Chancellor Merz of CDU joined the SPD to make a big $1 trillion investment in German infrastructure and defense, and removed the constitutional brake on investment Merkel had unwisely put in, with so much of Germany's infrastructure and digital in bad shape. This pushed up European stocks that had languished under the austerity logic of Cameron/Johnson-Merkel. This also was missed by many as the old logic was suddenly and quickly taken out with Russia emboldened in Ukraine taking over much of the eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region. Defense is now a rapidly growing part of the German economy. 2025 was a year of sudden and rapid change in the world economy with tariffs, US investment deals, and Germany taking on defense and infrastructure, which few could predict. And in which the media created confusion by saying the opposite of what was required from investors. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
$2000 rebate to all Americans to help meet cost of living concerns is put forward by the US president. This would put the tariffs revenue to good use to achieve the goal of bringing back manufacturing and supply chains to the US using tariff policy. This is to counter other nations use of subsidies and other ways to put American manufacturers out of business in industry after industry for 30 years by pricing way below US producers. The rebate would offset the domestic effects on US consumers of products imported with tariffs, which are priced somewhat  higher because of the tariff even though most of the tariff is borne by exporters. The end result is the goal of bringing the product manufacturing for these products back to America, where manufacturing was shipped overseas through the shortsighted behavior of American producers since 1990, mostly to China. The WSJ takes no responsibility for this behavior of American corporations, and does not see this complete dependence of the US on overseas supply chains as a threat to America being able to conduct and independent policy for the Nation based on its own interests. For 30 years the WSJ and American economics profession has adopted the view that it does not matter if product after product is made in another country, or in only one other country as is the case with China as the sole manufacturing superpower in 2025. Who made China the manufacturing super power? Who ignored warnings of concentration of manufacturing in one place? It is these same economists and media such as the WSJ that have through their willingness to ignore these concerns even when it comes to advanced technologies that has made China the superpower in manufacturing it is in 2025. DJT and most of America is fighting a battle to bring these supply chains back to America knowing this is best for America and the American people. It is owing to this new spirit that once mighty industrial towns that had fallen to new lows are making a resurgence in the US- an example is in today's Washington Post report by Irina Ivanova with the title- An Old Manufacturing City sputters back to life, Nov. 11 2025. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US president DJT reaches a framework in discussions with Rutte of the Netherlands. This will form the basis of future negotiations and the US has withdrawn its 10% tariff on EU countries opposing the US on Greenland. 

LyrArc Article Gist
If the trade war escalates to the point at which president Trump imposes tariffs on all Chinese goods imported into the U.S. on Jan. 1, 2019, China could retaliate with its own tariffs and this might affect Boeing aircraft as well. The results would be to tip the economies of both countries into a recession, and affect Mr. Trump's best chances for reelection in 2020. This can happen as Mr. Trump has a great deal of confidence in his negotiating style. The negotiations so far have shown China misread the U.S. and Mr. Trump leading to a strong U.S. response.  There is also the importance of not losing face, Mr. Xi's domestic audience, Chinese industry that sees a fundamental change from state subsidies model as eroding its position and offering resistance, patriotic sentiment making it harder to meet U.S. demands. Fundamentally for Mr. Trump it is about U.S. trade deficit and changing the huge trade surplus of almost $1 trillion that China enjoys each year with the U.S. which has been and is no longer sustainable. Mr. Trump also has the backing of Republicans on this issue and Democrats cannot afford to be soft on this issue as it involves American workers and jobs are at stake. Both sides could be in for a protracted negotiation as Mr. Trump feels it is right for Americans to expect fair trade and technology transfer that respects American concerns. In addition the U.S. could sense that it exports less to China, is less dependent on exports than China, and as the party that is hurt by unfair practices insist on its position. After Japan agreed to U.S. demands that it reverse a huge trade surplus in the seventies in which Mr. Lighthizer was the negotiator its growth declined sharply and is economy stagnated. China may sense inside that this could happen to its economy. Today Lighthizer the U.S. negotiator and Trade Representative could also push hard because of he was able to convince Japan to change its course. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
President Trump tells Mexico to either slow the increasing flow of migrants from Guatemala or face higher tariffs on Mexico's exports to the U.S. For the first time in recent decades Trump uses tariffs as a tool of diplomacy to reverse policies of countries with which it is in an unfavorable position. For the first time Trump uses negotiations to convey America's position that when it comes to some issues such as migration or trade because of the slippage in America's middle class incomes the U.S. should be considered as the same as a developing country. So that no preference should be given to other countries to the detriment of people in the U.S. when it comes to jobs, incomes, and funding for social services. Mexico a developing country could no longer insist that Guatemalans should not find a home in Mexico just because it was a developing country, if its policies supported the flow of migrants from Guatemala to the U.S. as in the case of Mexican president Lopez Obrador.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
LDP Komeito alliance wins 47 seats. Sanseito nationalist challenging LDP  government wins 14 seats in Japan parliamentary election July 2025. A tariff of 24% on Japanese car imports are increased by DJT to 25% in frustration over slow talks about an agreement. Japanese prime minister Ishiba is unlikely to remain in office more than a few months after losing majority in parliament. This means more uncertainty in the talks with the US over reciprocal and car tariffs. With the nationalists challenging the LDP's stiad party politics the LDP does not want to look weak in defending Japan's national interests.

LyrArc Article Gist
10% tariff on Canada's exports to the US after Ontario Reagan ad misrepresenting trade facts is aired on television. The ad seeks to show US tariffs in the light of the Smoot Hawley tariffs of the 1930's, when the tariffs today date back to Reagan's use of tariffs when Asian partners (at that time Japan in the 1980's) followed unfair trade practices to the detriment of American workers and industry. The US Trade Representative who acted for Reagan was Lighthizer, the same USTR who worked for DJT in the first term to fight the unfair trading practices of China, and whose deputy USTR Jamieson is now the USTR in DJT second term negotiating with Asian partners. Tariffs ae being used as an additional tookl in the toolbox by DJT and Lighthizer/Jamieson to counter the unfair trading practices of other nations, which includes partners of the US such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and EU. It also includes nations such as Switzerland who ignored US interests in trade whie having open access to the US market. Most of these nations know that these practices harmful to world trade exist, only Canada, China and some other countries have pretended they do not exist and they are the so called "champions of free trade." These nations attempt to make DJT appear to be doing this on whim when this is an issue in trade relations between the US and Asian partners, the EU, and Canada/Mexico for the last 50 years. DJT pointed this out- “The sole purpose of this FRAUD was Canada’s hope that the United States Supreme Court will come to their “rescue” on Tariffs that they have used for years to hurt the United States,” Mr. Trump said in a social media post Saturday afternoon. “Because of their serious misrepresentation of the facts, and hostile act, I am increasing the Tariff on Canada by 10% over and above what they are paying now. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Does a 10% reduction in tariffs on China with the October 30 2025 agreement- made in Busan South Korea at APEC meetings- make a difference for companies relocating from China? It only does for smaller companies who are stuck with Chinese sources. Larger American companies prefer to diversify their supply chain and continue to relocate part of their factories to Vietnam, India and other countries knowing that the tariffs game will end up with allies EU, Japan and India in the 10-15% tariff range as a concession to US for putting up with trade disadvantages and job losses 2000-2025. China's will still be at 47% in comparison and the fentanyl issue causing serious questions to be asked by the American people which have not been grasped in China or even in the US by companies and politicians.   Does it affect the urgency and general shift out of China? The fentanyl issue is unlikely to change and it is likely to do lasting damage to China's credibility to a degree that it not clearly understood in China, and even not fully grasped even in the US today because of the sheer size of the number dead- more young Americans dead from fentanyl than in the Korean, Vietnam and First World Wars combined. Other issues are technology that has been transferred without a proper assessment of the importance to national security, the need to shift the manufacturing base back home that US industries have inadvertently and carelessly shifted to China in the disastrous Bush and Obama years 2000-2016, and for the jobs, the wages, and cost of living concerns when supply chains are outside one's control. This article asks the question about tariffs on India and Brazil as being contradictory and showing a lack of consistency in tariffs. India is compared to China with India facing a 50% tariff because of Russian oil purchases, and Brazil a 100% tariff related to treatment of former president Bolsonaro even though US has a trade surplus with Brazil. One expects that at some point India and the US will come to an agreement that lowers the tariffs in a way that was done with the European Union to bring it closer to 10%. China's tariff to be sure is still around 47% dropping from 57% a concession for rare earths and for the upcoming elections and economic concerns not because of policy intent which has not changed on  strong action for fentanyl which is also part of the Appeal to the People in the DJT base.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. strategy has shifted to keeping tariffs on Chinese imports intact as an enforcement mechanism to make sure China keeps to its commitments made in negotiations, says WSJ. U.S. trade negotiator Mr. Lighthizer sees the latest tariffs as leverage, and that tariffs would be removed only when China keeps its commitments made to the U.S. Initially Lighthizer opposed the move for additional tariffs imposed on September 1. Now he accepts the strategy to use tariffs as leverage. Mr. Trump told the Economic Club of New York that if no deal is reached in phase one then the U.S. will "substantially raise those tariffs, they are going to be raised very substantially." Because China is seen as not willing to provide written commitments with enforcement provisions the U.S. strategy has shifted to making the tariff removal an enforcement mechanism. President Trump has committed on the campaign trail to correct misalignment in trade with China. He makes the final decision in negotiations and use his negotiating style.  China sees making commitments on stopping all subsidies as affecting its sovereignty and its industrial model of state sponsored capitalism since opening in the 1990's to trade with the world. Both sides are looking for ways to gain the maximum concessions in Phase 1 of the trade deal as it is very uncertain whether any further progress can be made given the positions on each side, say experts. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Nathaniel Taplin of the WSJ says the tariffs put on $50 billion high tech products by the U.S. and retaliatory tariffs on $50 billion products are not about a trade war but a way both countries will negotiate setting out their two positions.  A look at the role of foreign firms in China shows China has access to new technology using these firms as a conduit and these firms are also generating more jobs, being highly productive. These firms Taplin says will set back their investments if no agreement is reached or if it is harder to bring Chinese made products into the U.S. At this time China badly needs this investment and technology access because of their dynamism compared to inefficient state run firms as it struggles under a massive debt load with very high debt to GDP ratio.  A major issue is job growth as companies getting foreign investment are much more effective in jobs generation, delivering 10% of all urban job growth from 2007 to 2016, using just 5.5% of total investment. Return on assets at 9% compares to 4% at state run firms. If this dynamism is reduced or affected in some way China could have to provide more unproductive debt buildup stimulus.  For these reasons China has good reason to make concessions, says Taplin. Trump administration will ask for greater semiconductor purchases, much looser joint venture or foreign ownership requirements, higher Chinese payment for U.S. intellectual property. For all these reasons this is not about a trade war but about serious negotiations taking place so that there is a level playing field in the next phase of competition in high tech between the U.S., China and the E.U. changing the dynamics of the trade relationship in ways that reverse the trends of the past. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Indian access to Canadian oil and gas uranium supplies in deals Feb 2026.  India Canada trade agreement negotiations planned. This happens as Canadian PM Mark Carney visits New Delhi, Feb 28, 2026. The problems created by Mark Trudeau's failure to work with the Indian government on trade and business relations, is now a thing of the past as both Canada and India look for new buyers and markets for trade following US tariffs.

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in The South China Morning Post in Hong Kong, gives insights into the Chinese position in trade war with the U.S.  China has its own internal groups which support China being able to take a leadership role in world affairs. Xi Jinping made giving China a prominent role in the world a feature of his presidency. China  has this internal audience and its own sense that China's resurgence was won with hard work and cooperation, plus dedication of the Chinese people. In the past Japan and South Korea also used state subsidized industries, and subsidies to gain leadership in key business sectors involving high technology. China would see this state subsidies model as its own model of development. From this standpoint the U.S. demands on subsidies as unfair competition could be seen as changing a key part of its economic model.  Asking China to put everything in writing and show tangible proof of enforcement as the U.S. insisted in talks, was too much for the Chinese side. China said trust us to do this, and lift the tariffs based on our verbal assurances. The U.S. having seen decades of no progress on this point, wanted tangible proof before tariffs were lifted. Added to the demands on subsidies were the demands for no more of what the U.S. calls stealing of U.S. technology through forced transfer of technology by U.S. firms as a condition to operate in Chinese markets. With the U.S. lagging in 5G technology and Huawei ahead the issue resonates on the U.S. side. Add to this Mr. Trump's key voter base includes the former Democratic party supporting workers who have shifted to him because of trade agreements and policies of Clinton and Obama that hurt American workers through seemingly endless closure of manufacturing plants from Chinese competition.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan, this report shows was in a weak position and was willing to concede- its auto industry could absorb a 15% tariff but the rest of it's economy must be protected. Any economic weakness would be exposed and conditions mght deteriorate in the Japanese economy by letting things go past August 1 and steep tariffs. Luttnick's idea of investment fund was supported by Japan for investing $400-$550 billion in the US with 50% of profits going to the US. Earlier NYT report by Ana Swanson shows the American side of the deal where Howard Luttnick, with experience as a bond trader and on Wall Street, came up with the unconventional idea of an investment fund knowing that the LDP facing elections and  fearing loss of  its majority was unwilling to give DJT what he wanted on some trade issues. Japanese negotiators decided that giving some way on auto tariffs accepting a 15% flat tariff on auto imports was one way to accomodate the Americans and protect other Japanese industries exports from steep tariffs. One would not know this from reading the WSJ, but DJT with Luttnick, Bessent and Greer as negotiators with Akazawa and Ishiba of Japan have won a historic and significant win for America in creating a level playing field in trade. It also sets a precedent for all other trade deals.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The US central bank the Fed's Powell leaves interest rates unchanged July 30, 2025- as he waits to see what happens with inflation following tariffs action by DJT to level playing field with EU, Japan, China. A tariff of 15% is set in US Trade Agreements with Japan, EU and South Korea. Powell says the impact on US consumers will be minimal but not zero, with some effects expected even though EU, Japan and South Korea will not attempt to pass through the tariffs and risk the other benefits of trade access to the US market.

Overall both the European Union and the US have a good economy, with inflation at 2% and the the unemployment situation the best it has been in some decades near 6% in EU and near 4% in the US. 

LyrArc Article Gist
More evidence in Commerce Department trade figures that president Trump's strategy of imposing tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods and renegotiating trade pacts with Canada, Mexico and South Korea was not sufficient to reverse the huge U.S. trade deficit. The international trade deficit in goods and service increased 19% in December from prior month to $59.8 billion. Excluding services that U.S. sells to foreigners such as tourism, intellectual property and banking, the deficit grew to $891 billion the largest on record.

Mr. Trump's tax policy of increasing the fiscal deficit increased growth in the U.S. at a time when the rest of the world economy was slowing leading to higher demand for imports, and the 4 increases in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve helped strengthen the U.S. dollar that pushed up imports.