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U.S. economic growth in the third quarter of 2020 was 7.4%. This is a record and the closest to this was the economic growth in 1950 which was 3.9% a little over half of that. This is the equivalent of 33% on an annualized basis.

The economy is about 3.5% smaller than when the pandemic started. This record is better than the one in 2008 financial crisis when over a period of one and half years the economy declined by about 4%. By 2021 the U.S. economy will have recovered to where it was back to its original shape if recovery proceeds at this rate.

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What US companies did not get early on is that as China's economy advanced local companies could make the same products for less and innovate to take a big share of the market. Ford exited China and GM took  $5 billion charge on its China business. Chinese makers of cars, EV's, laptops and cell phones have the major share of the market. In 2024 US companies chastened by their experience and failing to compete in China are reticent about tariffs impacting their market share in China. Other reasons China was growing at over 10% in the last year of Obama's second term. In 2024 China is struggling to reach 5%.  Following Covid, housing industry collapse, as US and Europe block China's exports, China's public is growing wary of spending. There are only 800 Americans studying in China in 2024 compared to 11,000 in 2019. There are 290,000 Chinese students in US. ...

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Khamanei as leader of post revolution Iran set up Iranian supported military organizations in neighboring countries such as in Lebanon (Hezbollah), in Iraq, and in Syria, in Yemen (Houthis), over two decades, but failed to make the gains that Asian nations in that period made by investing entirely every dollar in the homeland economy of Iran. By comparing with Asian nations such as South Korea/Japan/Taiwan/China and now India/Vietnam the entire region from Iran and Afghanistan, Pakistan, Persian Gulf, Egypt can be seen as having lost some vital decades of the early twenty first century, and the scale of the difference is nothing short of staggering.  China after suffering invasion from Britain and then Japan, after civil wars and the Korean War, after going through this for two centuries sought peaceful development in 1990-2025, working with Japan and Britain countries that caused so much suffering yet China sough rapprochement, patiently with humility, with incredible results.  Gandhi also sought rapprochement with Britain through the British Commonwealth and cherished institutions of parliament and science learned and gathered from Britain. This was woefully missing in West Asia. When considering the access to capital in fossil fuel sales, the region of West Asia around Egypt may be seen as having recorded the largest wasted capital in wars in world history in the period 1920 -2047 (with only 20 years left to 2047),  by which time India, China, Europe and the US will have shifted from fossil to solar nuclear and renewables and fossil will be no longer generating revenue flows. Very little time is left as development will be that much harder by 2047 without the capital and result being one of being left behind in this new world that is facing us all.  ...

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DJT arrives in Beijing China May 13 2026. Topics that will be discussed are - the Iran War and how to resolve it, trade with China, tariffs, and US Taiwan policy. China continues to run trillion dollar surplus in trade with the world with lower trade surplus with the US after DJT tariffs. From $295 billion in 2024 under Biden the new DJT administration with DJT, Bessent and Jamieson has lowered this to $202 billion by 2026. In that same period the world trade surplus of China has increased from $992 to $1.19 billion. It is not clear whether some of the drop in the US figures is from China sending product through channels to Mexico and Vietnam that is then shipped to the US. DJT showed results in his policies by lowering the trade imbalance by 32%, while trade imbalance with the rest of the world has worsened (increase in trade surplus of China) by 20%. What does this show? We can safely assume that excessive trade imbalances are not in either China, EU, or America's interest. China increases trade and political friction by doing so, and it leaves its own policy weak by overdependence on exports, too little effort to increase domestic consumption and living standards.  FOr the US and EU trade imbalances with China of over $1 trillion reflect misguided policy at the top by US and EU decision makers and governments. By exposing their manufacturing base they are losing valuable jobs by the millions and creating a situation where the few with good jobs in select industries live in large cities and the rest of the country in smaller towns and rural areas suffering from lack of amanufacturing base. This weakens the investment base for public services and leads to lack of investment ininfrastructure. This is called deindustrialization which the DJT and Biden administrations both fight hard to reverse for the last 10 years since the disastrous years of the Obama and Bush administrations 2000-2016. For this reason we can say a good Republican is as good as a good Democrat, a bad Republican is as bad as a bad Democrat, political labels are just that labels. The media in US and EU are on a wrong footing and still fail to cover this the way it should be covered to shake off the lethargy in public sentiment in the US so that a rapid drive to reindustrialize and build new new infrastructure on top of the old that was built after World War 1 can take place. In today's world India is stepping up with major infrastructure building just as the US and EU ramp up their rebuilding.  ...

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What the US wanted in the initial hours- use of Diego Garcia base and RAF base in Haverford Gloucestershire. UK's Keir Starmer first denied use of the bases and till he could verify US attacks were within international law. When Iran responded with a a barrage of drones and ballistic missiles 840 drones and 340 ballistic missiles and attacked the British base RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, suddenly Starmer saw the opportunity to justify US use of British bases on defensive grounds. DJT called the British response "very disappointing." Starmer told parliament-  "To be clear, the use of British bases is limited to the agreed defensive purposes; we are not joining the US and Israeli offensive strikes. The lessons of history have taught us that it is important when we make decisions like this, that we establish there is a lawful basis for what the United Kingdom is doing. That is one of the lessons from Iraq, and that there's a viable thought-through plan with an objective that can be achieved or has a viable prospect of being achieved.That is the principle that I applied to the decisions that I made over the weekend. This government does not believe in regime change from the skies." The situation Starmer faces domestically is that voters for Reform UK and Conservatives support full use of the airbases. Voters who vote for Liberals, Greens and Labour do not support use of the British airbases. Local elections in which Labour is seen losing a large share of its 2024 vote to Greens and Liberals is one factor the premier had in mind, in addition to issues in the war in Iraq.  Another is the consideration that Britain has a large presence in the Gulf from the days of the Empire when they were British colonies.Already in 24 hours 100,000 Britons have registered for help in the Gulf region. Britishers run much of the tourism, airlines and other business in the Gulf region as the Gulf states are small in area, with small populations and a large population from South Asia for certified migrant labor, and British managers at the higher levels. When Iran attacked UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia with drones and ballistic missiles it was clear that Britain was also being attacked though the attack on the RAF base in Cyprus was cited. ...

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A steady decline in the price of Brent crude from $115 to $92 in the period from June to October 2014. Slow or no economic growth in Europe, and declining growth in China was the main reason. A cut in oil price by Saudi Arabia in September with lack of coordination in OPEC to control supplies when prices are declining, and increasing supplies from the U.S., provided additional basis for price declines. This price decline comes as large energy companies invested heavily in mega-projects to bring more oil supplies when prices were up to $128 by mid-2012. Consulting company EY estimate is that there are 163 such mega projects worth $1.1 trillion underway, most behind schedule and over budget. The projects were based on oil prices being over $100. Oil field development costs are increasing rapidly. Douglas Westwood, a consulting firm, estimate is that productivity of upstream capital spending has fallen by a factor of 5 since 2000, declining by 5% a year, as oilfield equipment and services demand exceeds supply. Greater technological sophistication also adds to cost such as Shell's Nobel Bully platform for deep sea drilling. See link- Noble Bully. Oil majors are now cutting spending, and some planned big projects are on hold. About $300 billion in assets may be up for sale. Shell plans to cut spending by 20% in 2014, Exxon and Chevron 5-6%. Shale oil projects in America need about $57 to be profitable with an internal rate of return of 10%, by one estimate. Yet this is an average and does not reflect differing producer costs. This estimate does not reflect the high cost producers, some of whom need closer to $110....

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China's share of US imports reached 10% in 2019. It collapsed during the pandemic after 2019. It then recovered in February-March 2021 to about 15%, and surged afterwards to 42%, and is down close to 15% in November 2024. The incoming DJT administration is bringing back a focus on tariffs- a tariff as high as 60 percent is unlikely as American companies are likely to oppose this. A smaller tariff increase of 20-30% would bring the share of US imports from China back to less than 10% that existed in 2019. 

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Europe is importing natural gas for heating homes and industry like never before as it shifts imports from Russia to the US, says this report in WSJ. Shown here is the import of LNG from tankers at the LNG terminal in Cherniere, France. Between 2021 and 2022 imports of US LNG to Europe more than doubled. The WSJ shows how drilling for gas takes place in Texas and Louisiana. That gas finds its way through pipelines to places where it is converted into LNG by freezing and transported by tankers across the high seas to European LNG terminals like Cherniere in France. The shale gas comes from the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico and a basin in Texas and Louisiana. Technological advances enable drilling 2 miles vertically and then two miles horizontally to reach into shale rock containing gas. Impurities are taken out to get gas that can be sent through pipelines to liquefied natural gas storage locations on the Gulf coast of America. Tankers take the LNG to LNG terminals in Europe that distribute the gas to homes. ...

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WSJ provides a look into the electric vehicle manufacturing plants of Rivian and Ford Motor in the US as they scale up quickly to increase production.

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China has the largest shale gas reserves in the world. The U.S. Energy and Information Administration estimates this at 1,275 trillion cubic feet. Most of this is deeper in the ground than in the U.S. and will be harder and costlier to recover. China's goal is to reach 3.5 trillion cubic feet of shale gas production by 2020.

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Questions China faces on AI- 17% high youth unemployment and 200 million young people in the gig economy in low wage demanding work. Chinese Communist party wants to see a stable China that can pursue industrial progress for decades like the European Union and the US. For this reason it is not going to let this level of dissatisfaction with high youth unemployment and low wage demanding work for young people to go to the next level. For this reason it will carefully make investments in AI -not the hyper investments in AI that are taking place in the US. The competition with China is going to take place on many fronts, and the industrial bloc created by the EU with India and Nordics has a 15 year plan during which it and the US are likely to far exceed anything China does at a slower rate of growth. As in the US choices will have to be made in China, investment in one area means disinvestment in other areas that have equal or more priority. Today's capital markets are in complete dysfunction in the US operated by a few banks and tech company leaders, similar to the situation prevailing in pharmaceuticals and healthcare. Investment priorities and planning are needed. It is a major error to say US cannot plan that capitalism does not have planning, because it is absolutely true that planning goes on at every level in American companies with Xerox, IBM, Oil Companies and other large companies, all having a Long Range Plan as well as planning for individual projects and investments in plants. If a good infrastructure plan, project by project, state by state, and at the local level, is not put in place this will simply not take place. If no good reindustrialization plan, project by project, state by state, and at the local level, is not put in place, this will simply not take place. In that case the competition with China would surely be lost before it had begun. Yet that is surely not the case, as every good American company has a long term plan. And this plan looks at all the potential investments the Nation can and should make in priorities and in the interests of the Nation and the People. All have to compete for resources and AI surely would not get the lions share of resources in China, or in the US, in a fair and well run market system where planning rightly takes place, because it would displace the very basic structure of a fair and well balanced economy that serves the American people, or the people of European Union and India, or the people of China. ...

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GM stock was trading on the New York Stock Exchange at $29.97 on April 18, 2011. It has dropped from the $33 a share IPO in November 2010. To breakeven the U.S. government would have to sell its stake in GM at $53 a share. The government is planning to sell its stake in GM this summer according to informed sources. At the current price this would mean the government would take a loss of $11 billion. The IPO in November reduced the government's stake from 61% to 26.5%. Higher gas prices have reduced sales of trucks and SUV's and the sales incentives in January and February 2011 are expected to reduce earnings.

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Turkey's Erdogan negotiates with Sweden's PM Ulf Kristersson, setting three conditions for approving Sweden's entry into NATO. The first active anti-terrorist efforts against Kurdish groups in Sweden, the second lifting of a veto on sale of F-16 jets to Turkey by the US, and the third visa free travel for Turks in the European Union. A $6 billion deal with the US covers 40 F-16 jets sale to Turkey and the modernization of another 79 Turkish fighter aircraft.

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Exxon is looking for a big oil dealer in the shale patch in the US. It is considering the acquisition of shale company Pioneer Natural Resources with a market cap of $49 billion. Exxon wants to make use of its windfall profits of the last year to good use. An acquisition of Dallas based Pioneer would give Exxon a dominant position in the West Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico. Exxon made windfall profits of $56 billion in 2022 after the jump in oil prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Based in Irving, Texas, it is heavily invested in fossil fuel assets and its thinking is that fossil fuels are here for a long time as it has not made a significant shift to renewable energy. During the cutoff of Russian oil supplies Europe has depended on LNG supplies from the US and Qatar, and on Norway for increased oil and gas supplies. President Biden included drilling concessions in some of the legislation passed in Congress and Conoco plans to drill in Alaska. The transitional period has gained support in places like the US and Norway following the need to support the European Union and Germany in the crisis. This gives oil companies some time to sort out their future plans for renewable investments. ...

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Jay Powell at US central bank the Fed says economy is strong and stable in March 2025. He points to low unemployment at 4% and other improvements including in lowering inflation that show the US economy in good shape, in his comments at Congressional hearings.

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OPEC and Russian oil producers are planning to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels a day for each month through 2022. Demand is increasing with economic recovery and this will lead to higher oil prices. Oil prices are now $80 a barrel in October 2021. Shortages of natural gas and high prices are leading power generation companies to use oil in place of natural gas. This will increase demand for oil by 500,000 barrels a day. Oil export revenue was cut in half to $119 billion for Saudi Arabia in 2020 and Saudis want to see higher prices to make up for lost revenue. OPEC + that includes Russia decided to end a price war during the Trump administration and this time have designed a strategy that will gradually push up prices. In recent years shale oil producers in the US quickly responded to higher prices of oil and increased production. After the pandemic in March 2020 American shale oil producers in 2021 are not increasing production. This gives OPEC+ better ability to set oil prices at higher levels. ...

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The British Council in Colombo, Ceylon, as far back as the 1960's, has shaped the founder of Lyrarc.com's knowledge of Britain in shaping the ideas of the Modern World we know today, knowledge of its parliament and democracy, that are vital in shaping society in China, India, and other nations in Asia, Latin America and Africa to this day. For this reason the closing of the British Council facilities around the world to pay a loan it had taken years ago under the Conservatives during Covid, is to be seen as a major blow. This report in The Guardian is about fears the world's leading soft power agency, which is more than that a transmitter of ideas that shape the Modern World and all our democracies in Europe and America, Asia, other parts of the world, will disappear in a decade. The Madrid building which houses the British Council in Madrid at 13 Paseo del Martinez Campos in Madrid's Chamberi district, has been put up for sale to pay Covid era debt. About 5000 Spanish students attend classes in English and prepare for exams in 35 classrooms. Over the years hundreds of thousands of Spanish people passed through this building. 320 jobs will be lost, employees with passionate dedication who it will be difficult to replace. Another center in Barcelona also is expected to close. This comes at the wrong time when Britain needs to make its voice heard in the world, when a mediocre level of British parliamentarians and leaders since Blair and David Cameron have allowed this to happen. English language classes in Italy at the British Council are also being shut down. Paris building may also be sold, and shrinking operations in the Baltic Republics, Croatia and Austria. This will be a major blow to helping spread knowledge of British parliamentary traditions, its history and participation in shaping the Modern World we know today.  It is now hoped and this is a message to Labour's Andy Burnham who studied English at Cambridge, to restore Britain's image and the value of its parliamentary and other lasting contributions to the Modern World, to the benefit of all nations, to cancel this debt and give the British Council new leadership for the next 2 decades. Neil Kinnock, a Labour leader, and a chair of the British Council says- “The British Council does not want to make these cuts. They are being forced into it by the conditions required by the Treasury." “I sympathise very much with the staff, so does the leadership,” he said. The British Council had “camped out” in the Foreign Office for last three or four years and put up a “hell of a fight”. Kinnock said: “What the government should do is either find a way of cancelling the debt, or even rescheduling the debt. Because it’s to absolutely nobody’s advantage to lose the British Council.” A desperate effort to pay an outstanding £197m debt from a Covid-era Conservative government emergency loan on commercial terms, with interest to be repaid by September, is what is causing this massive destruction of a century old institution that belongs to Europeans, to Asians, and to the world at large for better societies through knowledge. Who runs Treasury in Britain? Rachel Reeves, who has no concept of the role constructive Britons have played for two hundred years from the time the British agent at Rajkot encouraged Mohandas Gandhi (Gandhiji) to study in London in 1888, a role that the British Council has played since its founding. His name Sir Frederick Souter, who wrote the letter of recommendation for Gandhi to enter the University College, London. Sir Dingle Foot, Solicitor General of the UK, another Labour leader, played that role for a youngster of 22 years at the University of Baroda in India, for Law School at the University of London in 1969, after years of educational experience at the British Council in Colombo, Ceylon. Now the founder of Lyrarc.com. We call upon Andy Burnham to make this one of is first priorities to put Britain First, and India, other European nations, the US, to assist in this effort, to preserve one of Britain's brightest contributions in throwing light on the brave scientific, educational and industrial endeavors that built the Modern World. ...

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The Economist cites figures showing Canada lost 500,000 manufacturing jobs since 2005, with employment in manufacturing down to 1.7 million by 2013. From 2000 to 2013 manufacturing's share of GDP declined from 18% to 10%. This situation is shown by the decaying manufacturing towns seen in Ontario. About 500,000 manufacturing jobs were lost between 2005 and 2013, as the price of oil increased to the $100-$120 range and the Canadian currency was overvalued, leaving the Canadian economy more dependent on energy exports. Some of the auto manufacturing supplier base has shifted from the midwest to southern U.S. states, reducing the attractiveness of Ontario for manufacturing investment. Overvalued currencies have hurt the manufacturing sector of commodity producing countries dependent on exports of mining products or oil, especially Brazil and Canada. The depreciation of the Canadian currency in 2014-2015 may not help, as many of these jobs are not likely to return.

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This BBC report shows how "awe" watching the forces of Nature can make us realize how small we are in the great shape of things and increase our sense of gratitude, improve our mental well-being.

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The European Union Commission says Ireland must recover 13 billion euros in back taxes for giving tax preferences to Apple that are against EU rules. The EU Commission says Ireland allowed Apple to pay a corporate tax rate of 1% on its European profits in 2003, and .005% in 2014. The EU Commissioner says the use of Ireland as the place where Apple pays taxes on operations in Europe has no base in reality, as most profits are earned in other countries outside Ireland. Taxable profits of Apple "did not correspond to economic reality," according to Ms. Vestager, the EU Commissioner.  In the current environment where political upheaval is unsettling the democratic process in the U.S., Britain, Spain, France and Italy, as well as in Brazil and other countries in the developing world- because of deep recessions, and efforts to cut the deficits with deep cuts in state spending including in education and healthcare, basic services- the moves by companies to reduce taxes to these absurdly low levels such as .005% when other companies in the EU are paying 12.5%, is becoming increasingly unpopular. As pointed out in this BBC News article this sounds like the way Carnegie, Rockefeller and Vanderbilt operated during the late 19th century, and were seen as operating in a manner that was above the law. Janet Yellen pointed out at a Boston Fed Conference on inequality in Oct 2014 that the bottom half of the distribution or 62 million households in the U.S. in 2013, had a net worth of about $10,000, One quarter of these households had a net worth of zero dollars. The working class and blue collar workers in the U.S. provide much of the support at Trump rallies. Younger college educated people support Sanders, because of the situation of the working and middle class in the U.S., and a similar situation exists in Europe. It is for the sake of the democratic process and delivering services in education, healthcare, and other basic areas to all, that companies small and large need to pay their fair share of taxes, regardless of size, influence, or technological advantages. Today this is is seen by most leaders who draw public support as the right way forward for the U.S., Latin America, Europe and Asian countries, including proper allocation of resources to best serve the needs of working people. For example the 13 billion euros is equal to all of Ireland's healthcare budget, and 66% of its social welfare budget.    ...