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This report in DW.com presents a situation where supply of oil runs out as demand way exceeds supply as shale oils in US are depleted, and no new reserves are found. A story in WSJ last week reports that the salty water from shale oil extraction is injected back into reservoirs at a rate that creates serious problems in the Permian Basian of the US including East Texas. The IEA forecast in 2026 shows about 97 million b/d of production and demand slightly exceeding this in both 2030 and 2050 which would suggest defossilization has not taken place. Yet the US pullout from defossilization under DJT is sure to be reversed by future governments in as short as 3 years, and the current DJT policy is simply a response to the cost of living concerns of the majority of Americans. The scenario that fossil fuels will be required forever is promoted by the oil companies and by OPEC+ including Russia. But this situation will reverse as the cost of living crisis and the low wages and incomes, loss of factory jobs, low savings, health care inflation, is tackled under the DJT administration and the US economy becomes stronger with lower inflation.  This scenario of  steady oil demand can be reversed if China and India and Europe push ahead with renewable energy and technological change as is happening today, and will not be seriously impacted when the US joins the battle with its renewable energy push in 2028. This is not just an optimistic scenario, it is a balanced one as private industry in the US will sense this and move ahead with development of new technologies for renewable energy so as not to fall behind and to pioneer on their own. That is the history of innovation in the US for the last 100 years and will not change. ...

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The two waves of the coronavirus in India can be compared looking at the graphs and this report in the Times of India. The case volume and deaths in the worst hit state Maharashtra is shown here. The case volume increased by about 50% in the second wave but deaths were about half that in the first wave. Most of the deaths were in the people over 65 and most of the cases in the ages below 40 years. In the over 65 age only 5% have been vaccinated which means that medical management is still the best way of tackling the coronavirus. Vaccine supplies are the bottleneck and this is beginning to change- so that by August ample supplies of the vaccine should make the difference in bringing down cases and deaths.  Lockdowns are managed carefully so that the economy can recover in the second half of 2021 and in 2022.  Any assessment of the crisis management must take into account the speed of the response, its effectiveness, and keeping in mind the economic recovery needed following the pandemic. ...

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Steps the Modi government in India is taking in the 2020 Budget to tackle slowing growth include relaxing the fiscal deficit target from 3% to 3.5% of GDO, selling public sector companies to generate more funds, so that additional investment can be done in infrastructure, rural development, education and health care. Growth of the economy is expected to drop to 5% for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2020.  A weak banking sector with sharp decline in credit, and decline in the auto sales by 20%, have worsened the decline in growth.  Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman, the Finance Minister, said that this budget is designed to "boost Indian incomes, and enhance their purchasing power." The Indian slowdown comes in the middle of a global slowdown, with China's growth expected to be 4.9% in the first quarter of 2020. Growth was further weakened after the effects of the coronavirus lockdown on parts of China, disruption of supply chains, partial closure of businesses. ...

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Competing oligopolies or Competition? American capitalism in reality is a mix of both. Government's role in American economy shifting from higher in the Great Depression to low in Globalization and now back to supporting business to compete with China/India/Germany's Subsidized Capitalism. This WSJ piece that take a circle around the bases for a home run is in reality not a true reflection of America's management of it's economy over the last 200 years since 1825. There is a high degree of individualism, yes because it is a land that is forever expanding on sparsely populated Indian territory in the west starting under Jefferson and Washington at the Ohio/Pennsylvania frontier. By 1900 there is the emergence of the great corporations and monopolies, oligopolies with TR's busting of monopolies by 1920, and much of that structure is still there in 2025, with some obsolescence for changing technology. Oligopolies in information technologies simply absorb the small companies, and government is itself run by powerful lobbying as in the pharma industry to the sheer and alarming detriment of all Americans. ...

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Temperatures not seen or ever recorded by weather monitoring systems of 126 degrees Fahrenheit in New Delhi, India's capital May 30, 2024. This is 52.3 degrees Centigrade, with dangerous sweltering heat across all of northern India. Delhi's Lt. Governor called for paid leave for Delhi construction workers for 1-3 pm. Election rallies in India's general election drawing huge crowds even in such sweltering heat shows the impatience of the population of over 1 billion people with corruption and poor governance in some states and the efforts by prime minister Modi to ensure good governance and large investments for modernization of the Indian economy in infrastructure and transportation, logistics and manufacturing. It may be astounding to realize that voting still reached 68-71% of eligible voters in such weather conditions. India is the fastest growing economy in the world and now a beacon of progress in the middle of stalled efforts throughout Africa, Asia and Latin America following the pandemic, yet it too faces challenges from climate change just as severe as in the rest of the world with heat waves, floods and wildfires. ...

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The title of this BBC report is a misnomer as the content of the report is that India and the US are actively negotiating a Trade Agreement after some disagreements on Indian oil purchases from Russia bumped up from 2% before 2019 to about one third to 40% of its imports by 2024. This is being rapidly reversed and some estimates by consultants CLSA show India only made $2-3 billion from Russian discounted oil sales, a miniscule amount. On American interest in agricultural exports India can take in some products other than grain which it sees as important to feed 1 billion people and food security.  DJT says the "special relationship" between India and the US is important, and says "there's nothing to worry about. We just have moments on occasion". India has much bigger stakes in trade with the US. In fact it's growth into the third largest economy in the world means doubling or tripling its trade with the US and the European Union in the next few years. This would narrow the difference in GDP and per capita between India and China, as India and China started at the same GDP and per capita in 1950. Only in 1990 with China's trade with the US has the Chinese GDP and per capita income increased to create the huge gap with India. ...

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What does fast growth in the world's fastest growing economy, that is a key part of America's and the European Union's and Japan's supply chain look like. It is based on people inclusive development called Sab Ka Vikas Sab ke Saath, Gandhiji's idea of the last person in the line ever present and watchful of the task at hand. This Powerpoint of the blueprint of the Indian Budget  for 2024-25 from Nirmala Sitharaman and the Finance Ministry shows a visual of what the growth looks like for the farm, industrial, housing, health, education and other sectors of the economy. It is a journey just beginning under Vikshit Bharat with a target date of the 100th  anniversary of independence 2047. Here one can see the target of increasing capital expenditures for infrastructure and various development schemes by 11.1%. GST (one tax one country) tax revenues are expected to increase by around 12% which support this budget. Strengthening financial sector to bring investment back on track after the pandemic is one of the support pillars, so is deepening and widening tax base through the GST a uniform federal tax for the whole country. Another pillar is proactive inflation management- the story of how India tackled the cost of energy by accessing from different suppliers at the best price is told this week in Feb 2024 in the WSJ. Foreign Minister Jaishankar told the Munich Security Conference with Blinken and Baerbock in the panel that India with 1.4 billion people's future at stake should be seen as done the right thing, the smart thing. Inflation has been kept at about 5%, and key economic growth projected at 7-8% over the next decade with goal of becoming the third largest economy in the world. ...

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Canada, Australia, India, Brazil have some of the largest reserves of rare earth and critical minerals. Brazil has second largest reserves. This means the US can still change the current situation of a near monopoly on critical minerals by China in coming years by making the necessary investments early in these countries and in the US itself. Here is the situation in Brazil for rare earths. Brazil has said it will be open to investments that place a priority on rare earths processing within Brazil, not just rare earths commodity exports for processing in the EU or the US. China does most of the processing of rare earths in China, it imports heavily from Burma, Indonesia, Australia and Africa and does nearly 100% of the processing in China using research labs and production facilities funded by PRC government. Yet the search for and development of supplies of rare earths and critical minerals is still at an early stage so that with the necessary investments including in India, Indonesia, Australia, Brazil, in Africa, and in the US, the US and Germany, EU, India can change this situation by 2030. Brazil hold 21 million tons of reserves of rare earths, about a quarter of world rare earths reserves. Just in the last 3 years since 2023 3000 permits have been filed with Brazil's National Mining Agency compared to 500 in years before this. Australia and India are also catching up in rare earths minerals investment. Australian producers Viridis and Meteoric are doing advanced work in Pocos de Caldas mining area in Brazil. Canada is doing a project in Golas state. US company Rare Earth is putting $2.8 billion in Serra Verde. All this is being pushed forward by fast track investing supported by the DJT US government. Serra Verde historically sent rare earths in commodity form to China. Now DJT administration has setup private and public financing for a 15 year supply agreement to the US. Australia's Viridis can also get funding from IDFC operated by the US with discussions underway. Viridis's $360 million  Colossus project in Brazil sends rare earth in commodity form to a French-Belgian processing company in the EU. Brazil cannot afford to be too restrictive when it comes to processing- though that remains its goal -as Brazil wants to use its advantages in rare earths to increase investments and export earnings to support its slowing economy. Over time Brazil as part of this western hemisphere and as shown in "Brazil no Espelhos" or "Brazil in the Mirror" by Felipe Nunes, discussed in the adjoining piece on Brazil, is a part of the same social fabric of the Americas and its economic structure, its supply chains, its business, its democratic framework and processes. ...

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Daily coronavirus cases dropped to the lowest level since March 30, 2021. Cases on June 19 were at 58,000 and deaths at 1154 for India's population of 1.2 billion people. The only state with cases over 10,000 was Kerala, and close to 9000 was Tamilnadu. Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh were at over 5000. All these states are in southern India. Only Maharashtra with about 9000 cases was in northern India. The positivity rate in Maharashtra state was 3% and in Mumbai 2%.  The Indian government has a clear vaccine policy and it is for vaccine supplies and vaccination drive to be under the federal government. This puts responsibility in one place and makes it possible to achieve the target of vaccinating 1.2 billion people by December 31, 2021, with the federal government putting all the resources it can muster into the effort. The economy is also linked to how the vaccination supply effort and vaccination drive progresses in the next 6 months, so that the goal of vaccination is closely linked to economic recovery and progress for India as a whole. A good monsoon rainy season would also help the rural economy recovery. ...

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Any Asian conflict involving China would in a few months destroy Apple's value, CEO's would change quickly, and Apple policies change to shift entire production to India and the US in a rapid shift. Tim Cook would be seen as having gambled against America's interests, unresponsive and failing after repeated warnings.  Apple's goal of sourcing from India by 2027 a mere 26% of its iphones, means that a decade after USTR Lighthizer and DJT started the task of reshoring manufacturing to US and allies in 2016, the No. 1 outshoring company would still be making 75% of its dollar value iphones in China. A degree of overconcentration that would make no sense considering that Apple's 75% of manufacturing would be entirely at risk in 2027 after repeated warnings and inaction. The only option for Tim Cook in 2025 is to come up with new goals of shifting a minimum of 50-60% of its dollar value product manufacturing for iphones to India by 2027. . Tim Cook as Apple CEO has done little to prevent the overconcentration of manufacturing in China since 2016. About 10 years after DJT was elected to bring manufacturing back to India or close allies the simple idea of diversification was not implemented. Why? Having set up this system starting in 1998, a system that did not exist before that tiem when Steve Jobs hired Tim Cook with a winning formula to Make in China, a country just emerging from its Communist phase of failed state economy. By 2008 in 10 years the infrastructure was built in a backward largely agricultural economy that was rapidly modernizing under a market economy with state run capitalism under the Communist Party experiment. The Bush Obama 16 years were ones with America not responding to the challenge posed by this new system which could create huge surges in production capacity with focus on key technologies and flood markets. The next decade after 1998-2008 was one of rapid growth of this experiment which combined with design and engineering in the US generated few jobs in manufacturng in the US, but huge profits with huge margins fro a low cost base with a high image and technology innovation product. Lighthizer, Navarro, Jamieson had already sounded the alarm for American manufacturing and loss of jobs in 2016.  America's deindustrialization was becoming a bigger challenge by 2020 so that president Biden continued the policy of reindustrializing. In 2025 China 2025 Plan that was a warning in 2016 is already a reality with China flooding the world in solar panels, and ready to flood the markets overseas with electric cars. Apple may only get a reprieve, this exemption is not the same as the last one. National security is an issue, key technologies need to be protected. There is only one more opportunity to rebuild American manufacturing and keep promises.     ...

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Argentina, South Africa, Mexico, India, UK, European Union elections are taking place by June 2024 and US in November 2024. Yet it is misleading to lump them together. Much discontent is there to see as in the UK with cost of living, governance, time wasted on Brexit, India with lingering effects of the pandemic on rural voters, caste based voting. In India protest vote of lower caste Dalit voters in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, even with government support in forms of universal healthcare, food for poor households during pandemic extended, cooking gas, housing support, clean tap water, direct bank account deposit to accounts of poor and farmers. Yet in the states in the south and east in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh, and generally in the south the BJP vote count increased so that losses in the north were made up leaving the percentage of vote for India for Modi's BJP party at 37 percent in 2024 instead of 38% in 2019, losing the absolute majority 240 seats of 543 yet having campaigned heavily for partners who added seats 294 of 543. In the UK Keir Starmer may see some vote preference for Labor erode yet the Conservative record is in shambles even conservative experts will say, as in India where the opposition parties offer no prospects for the future and little track record for making India the second or third largest economy in the world which the BJP has set and shown to have achieved over 10 years by taking India to No. 5 in the world economies. ...

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The protest vote in Uttar Pradesh is just that a protest vote intended to get a message that the work of the Modi government to modernize and industrialize the economy needs to be accelerated to see its effects felt in rural agricultural areas of Indian states. Modi said yesterday- "If you work for ten hours I will work for 18 hours" showing that he sees the need for acceleration, even harder work ahead to modernize and industrialize India.  Disconnect with lower caste untouchable voters called Dalits and economic distress felt from the effects of the pandemic, decades of neglect that take time to correct in one of India's largest and least industrialized states Uttar Pradesh, led to prime minister Modi failing to get most of the 80 of 543 seats as it had done in three previous elections. Lower caste Dalits form 20% of the population, other lower castes another 40% of the population and 20% are Muslim voters. With this mix of voters and the time it takes to modernize and industrialize its economy in a state that was neglected for over 60 years the Modi government's best intentions have not delivered election results in the state in 2024 after the pandemic. Delivery on schemes for sanitation, clean running water, affordable housing, cooking gas for poor households, that have brought 250 million out of poverty nationally and about 40 million in Uttar Pradesh alone, was overlooked by voters, and younger voters. This does not change the path of modernization that countries such as China have taken and which require a strong administration with full public support working with industry and all parts of society to build infrastructure and manufacturing rapidly over 15-20 years. In China this happened from 1990 to 2010. In India this will take 2014- 2030 to achieve. In Bihar, UP, Orissa, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, in all these states with large areas of backwardness in development the only path to realize the aspirations of the people is the path offered for modernization by prime minister Modi. The protest vote of 2024 is then a way of saying to prime minister Modi that the level of development needs only to be accelerated to see its benefits for hundreds of million of people in rural agricultural areas. ...

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2014 Xi visits Gandhiji's Sabarmati Ashram as is shown in this picture in BBC News and is curious how the weaving is done by hand taking a try at it with prime minister Modi, both sitting on the floor Asian style. In 2020 China advances its troops in a part of Ladakh leading to a clash with Indian forces. What happened? India's resilience in the face of the pandemic and the bright future for its economy, greater integration with the American and European Union economies in its draft plan to 2030. A sense in China's leadership that India's modernization would follow in the same way that China's and South Korea's have followed Japan's modernization. A sense also that better relations with the US and the European Union would require better relations with India, as an indispensable condition. A sense also that the issue of Taiwan was a bigger issue and a core interest for China than the border disputes in the remote regions of the Himalayas. It just did not make sense to have a conflict with India in the priorities of China to 2030 or 2040. That India needed to be seen not through the lens of the British but as an ancient nation that had similarities with China and Japan from its Buddhist roots. ...

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G20 meetings in several Indian cities in 2023 include Srinagar. The meeting in J&K was a G20 Tourism working group meeting that will look at ways tourism can help boost the economy of J&K and create employment.

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NITI Aayog does much of the development planning for India. It's CEO Parmeswaran Iyer, says about one third of the population of 1.2 billion people has reached the middle class. The poverty level has dropped to about 16% of the population. He describes the steps taken to achieve this. First inflation control by keeping inflation below 6%- it was 5.7% in December 2022. The decline of loan rates for education, buying home and appliances to about 8%. Second the pioneering action of One Nation One Tax under GST that has saved Rs 18,000 lakh crore or Rs 12000 per household annual saving. To create small micro business in a country the size of India with a large informal economy action was taken. 120 million of 380 million beneficiaries are from the  middle class for PM Mudra Yojana who received Rs 7 trillion in collateral free loans. This is designed to provide non farm small loans of 10 lakh rupees (about $8000) to micro unit enterprises at the bottom of the development pyramid to encourage an entrepreneurial culture and micro enterprises. Non Performing assets (bad loans) or NPA were reduced from 11.1% of the banking system to 5.8% in 2022. This is critical to support future growth as banks that well capitalized can make the loans needed to support growth. In health and education  a large network of new universities and medical colleges, hospitals is being built. The Ayushman Yojana provides health screening to millions of people and aid is channeled to people for low cost generic medicines. It is the size of these efforts that is making the difference in the lives of ordinary people. For technological advancement the government has moved quickly on digitalization, and 5G implementation to be done by 2024. ...

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Andhra Pradesh on India's southeast coastline with 25 parliament seats and Bihar in India's north and east with 40 parliament seats and long history of being part of the BJP led National Democratic Alliance are now key to a five year term for prime minister Modi in India. Modi's BJP party won 240 seats out of 543 in parliament.  Chandrababu Naidu of Telegu Desam Party won 135 seats in the state Assembly election in Andhra Pradesh (NDA), all but 18 seats. It wins 22 of 25 seats in India's parliament (NDA). It also shows the wide swings in Indian elections that no party is safe. Telgu Desam Party (NDA)  won on the platform of a double engine government at state and federal levels to create jobs and modernize its rural agricultural economy. In the last 2019 election the Opposition YSRCP party won almost all the seats in the state assembly and in 2024 lost almost all the seats. In 1995 Telegu Desam Party joined Atal Bihari Vajpayee's BJP to form a government and during elections that followed for Vajpayee's 5 year term (1999-2004) he was part of the NDA. He has served three terms as chief minister of Andhra Pradesh, two terms before Telengana was formed and one term after Telengana split off from Andhra Pradesh. Andhra Pradesh is centered around the Vizag region on India's south eastern coastline and the cities of Vijayawada and Guntur with a 1000 kilometer coastline on Bay of Bengal. ...

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A heat wave over northern India with New Delhi recording temperatures never seen of over 50 degrees centigrade happens just as voters go to the polling places in May 2024. Results will be announced June 5 for parliament's 543 seats. Turnout is considered to be resilient in the face of the heat wave with only 20% of the voting seats having lower numbers of voters than 2019. The drop in voting was slight of 1.5 percentage points overall from 67.2% to 65.6%. The last phase starts June 1, and 485 seats have voting completed.This vote is all about development and delivery of infrastructure, jobs, and modernization, improving governance and rapidly developing the country held back for about six decades after independence during which Japan recovered from the war, and China rapidly modernized its economy, and India only setting the beginnings of recovery in the administration since 2014, with prime minister Modi setting the goal of a modernized country by 2047 or Vikshit Bharat. ...

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It is not a story that most people grasp or understand- the long term effects of the US immigration surge of 2023 and its source mostly from Venezuela. The  US Congressional Budget Office says labor force in 2033 ten years from now will be larger by 5.2 million people and younger as a result of the immigration surge in 2023 from about 1 million immigrants each year in the 2010's to 3.3 million. About 2.5 million crossed the southwestern border in 2023. Much of it the result of the collapse of the Venezuelan economy and its middle and upper classes leaving the country. This was worsened by the US sanctions on the Maduro government including under president Trump, say experts in an adjoining NYT article on the 7 million people who left Venezuela to go to Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Chile since 2012, then making their way up the Darien Gap to the US. Something that could have happened under a Republican president if the US Congress could not reach bipartisan agreement on correcting asylum and parole policy. As a result of this surge US Gross Domestic Product  in 2033 will be 3% larger. When the large Asian economies are seeing a aging workforce, Japan for the last decade and China now following Japan, the US labor force will be younger than it would be without this unusual surge in immigration of the last 2 years. The federal deficit will be smaller at 6.4% instead of 7.3% in 2033 as immigrants will pay taxes on income. Another aspect of this larger infusion of immigrants is that after the pandemic shut down immigration entirely there were severe shortages in the hospitality and restaurant, construction, healthcare industries. And with the trillions of dollars in investment that the Biden administration is making with more factories - this will absorb most of the immigrant surge by 2033. With some positive effects in the competition with rising Asian economies China and India. Particularly consider with the younger demographic India of 1.4 billion people. It will mean more factories can be built in the US and there will be workers for these factories in the US at wages that keep the US economy competitive years from now in 2033. This is a sobering aspect of the current situation viewed from what will be seen by America's younger generation. And under the bipartisan compromise in Congress correcting asylum and parole policy that was shut down by the former president, Republican senators understood very well that the immigration surge of 2023 would have some constructive effects for the long term, while its effects on the short term would be mitigated by Biden's commitment to close the border in 2024. This did not happen, yet the future for America's younger generation is bright under the Biden plan for massive investment in manufacturing and jobs in the US, and with the millions of immigrants needed to fill the jobs that investment will create by 2033. It will make America with a younger work force than Europe or China, only India having a younger workforce in 2033. ...

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The 28 Point Peace Plan offers a basis for further work to arrive at an agreement acceptable to Ukraine and to the European Union, is the view emerging at the G20 talks in Johannesburg, South Africa. The leaders of Finland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Italy and Spain met on Saturday, November 22 2025. Separately Leyen and the EU council president Costa meet with Meloni of Italy and Macron of France on Saturday after conversations with Zelensky on Friday.  British prime minister Starmer has this view of the 28 Point US plan negotiated with Russia-  “There is only one country around the G20 table that is not calling for a cease-fire, and one country that is deploying a barrage of drones and missiles to destroy livelihoods and murder innocent civilians.” Ms. Von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, says-  “Ukraine can count on us because this is not only an aggression against Ukraine, but it is an aggression against the principles of the U.N. charter." “It’s on European soil. Therefore, we will support Ukraine for as long as it takes.” Macron of France commended American efforts to reach a peace deal but said EU nations would work with Ukraine to map out a plan for way forward in 48 hours.  "What is at stake is Ukrainian sovereignty and European security.” It is this aspect of European security that may be the reason the EU and Germany may decide to modify the plan to offer a counter proposal on several points. One on limits to the size of Ukraine's defense forces to ensure its defense. Another on the stationing of forces by NATO in a peacekeeping role in Ukraine as proposed earlier. Third on the ceding of territory now in the hands of Ukraine so that these parts of Ukraine can remain independent after 4 years of ragged defense. Germany under CDU Merz and with Pistorius of SPD at Defense in a strong coalition government may be the deciding factor as Merz has already set the goal for the Bundeswehr to become the strongest army in Europe, with plans and action to prepare for this transition to defend European interests. It is true that Ukraine is at a difficult point yet if the Europeans see this as a "capitulation" and a US DJT deadline of one week to push this through Europeans may come up with a counter offer that includes these points that would make it clear that they are not an obstacle for peaceful resolution of this conflict. The history of Europe shows that in such situations with most of Europe on one side and Russia or some other major European power on the other side, eventual settlement ends up with all sides making some concessions, and in no way seen as "capitulation." Asian powers China and India have been pulled out of the conflict to a large degree in 2024-2025, with US shifting to a neutral position. Making this a purely European conflict with the Russian economy mobilized for wartime yet facing all the nations of Europe led by Germany, France and the UK in a transition towards military preparedness and unwilling to see any form of capitulation. In such a situation the larger economies and resources of the EU could effectively counter a Russian threat leading to a settlement that is better for all parties to the conflict.   ...

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India is storing as much oil as it can at today's low oil prices of about $20-$30 per barrel in May 2020. With India asking the U.S. to store oil from U.S. shale producers at its strategic petroleum reserve storage facilities in the U.S. Already its existing storage facilities of 5.3 million tonnes (39 million barrels) are full, and the storage capacity will be more than doubled with an additional 6.5 million tonnes (48 million barrels) to be built quickly. About 8.5 million tonnes (62 million barrrels)  are in ships on oceans around the world. Demand is only 20% during the lockdown but is expected to reach levels of 2019 by June 2020. Only about 20% of oil consumption comes from existing storage.   That Indian oil capacity is 39 million barrels of storage shows how little was done over succeeding administrations without national aspirations for a growing country with hundreds of million of young people, when the oil storage capacity today of 39 million barrels compares with over 500 million barrels for Japan and for China. A huge Indian government aid package of $280 billion for the economy can be offset by gains in other areas such as low oil price oil storage, and gains in supply chain manufacturing, increasing the size of the domestic market for local manufacturers with incentives and loans, and new rules for stressing local manufacturing for a self-reliant economy. ...

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Najib Razak of the UMNO United Malay National Organization who succeeded post independence leader Mahathir Mohamed of Malaysia is implicated in the1MDB scandal that also involved Goldman Sachs. $4.3 billion is estimated to be stolen from the Malaysian sovereign wealth fund. Razak is given a15 year jail sentence in a scandal that has rocked Malaysian politics and reduced confidence in Malaysia's investment for modernization. irreparable harm is done to the nation's British inherited institutions for law and order, responsible parliamentary government, following the long premiership of Mahathir, ethnic nationalist "putra" movement of the UMNO, and the governments that followed Mahathir including Razak. Similar problems have affected other countries with ethnic nationalist movements in Sri Lanka where corruption and mismanagement of the state finances and treasury led to lack of funds for essential imports, and in other countries in Asia. Corrupt practices and misuse of state funds intended for development became a feature of government in Indian states following the rule of the Indian Congress party under Jawaharlal Nehru, with ethnic nationalism creating ethnic states in India, and causing irreparable harm to development and modernization with lack of capital and policy decisions. This has led to the lag of modernization in India with China of about 10-15 years that also affects defense at the Himalayan border with China as China's hybrid state capitalist economy surpassed India and matched the US in 2 decades 2000-2025. Only now is India under responsible governance pushing to close the gap and modernize rapidly under a new government in it's third term. Much of the thinking that accompanied post independence decolonization is now under question with it's assumptions that decolonization alone would lead to development is debunked. Modernization as China and India has learned comes from the good and responsible use of abundant capital, abundant labor, and abundant management resources, abundant technological access, good policy and plans at the federal and state levels, and good sustained leadership from the top. ...

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Deteriorating China Iran relations as the oil imports from Iran for China face US tariffs of 25% on China's exports to US, and US economic relations far more significant for the Chinese economy. China gets somwhere between 1.4 to 1.6 million barrels aday from Iran (80% of Iran's oil exports) into Shandong refiners at $10 below Brent crude prices. Another 400 mbd comes from Venezuela to China. This means $30 billion comes to Iran from oil sales to China at $59 a barrel, and $8 billion for Venezuela from oil sales to China. This has financed much of the bellicose policies towards the US in the western hemisphere and in the Gulf region. Iran's bellicose policies in the Middle East, its nuclear policy, are now seen by China as a distraction and  detract from good economic relations with the US. China $400 billion oil deal 25 year cooperation agreement signed in 2021 was signed under the Biden administration and China today faces a completely different situation in 2026. Even China's relations with Russia are not the same as the US builds better relations with Russia. A wind down of the Ukraine war would change the situation completely and ensure peace in Europe including Russia, as the US works with the EU to meet future challenges having learned from this experience in Europe (Ukraine dividing Europe) and in the Western hemisphere (drug/ migrant. trafficking). When historians write this chapter of the inflows of capital from advanced West to Arab countries and the Gulf region they will write about the huge contrast between China/India's efforts to modernize and these nations where much of that capital was wasted in wars and conflicts and in grandiose projects that made no material difference to the standard of living and quality of life of the vast number of ordinary people. Once the oil dividend is gone with fossil fuels replaced with renewable energy by 2035-2040 this opportunity to advance is lost for the Arab and Gulf region. ...

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During the first term of the NDA government two programs were launched to restart the Indian economy- one was Make In India, and the other was Skill India.

This report in Indian Express looks at Skill India, its history and goals, and progress. 

For Skill India to meet its ambitious goals of training "a minimum of 300 million people by 2022" much remains to be done. The quality of training, the active participation of industry and manufacturing in the training, the setup of vocational training of high quality in schools, has to be the focus of new efforts. Lack of results in meeting the needs of unemployed young people, is also because of the lack of growth in the industrial sector. For this to happen getting rid of the problems of non-performing loans has to be speeded up, partly through recapitalization of banks, and partly through other methods. 

 

 

 

LyrArc Article Gist
So much for political campaigning and talk of inflation, inflation comes in lower in September after DJT tariffs of 10-15% on EU, Japan and other trading partners. The higher tariffs on China are action needed to reduce trillion dollar trade deficits the world has with China, deficits that are economically destabilizing for the world economy, with supply chain concentration a serious problem. US inflation in September came in at 3.0 percent lower than expected.  One reason is that the headline numbers are high but in actual practice the tariffs are on average at 12.5% not 17% or 25% as headlines show. The tariffs vary by country and the US was careful to keep them at 10% for the EU and Britain and 15% for Japan, the key trading partners. China is an exception at 47% because it is US policy to reduce the world's 1 trillion trade deficit with China and cutting this is a major goal. For decades the US tried every possible way to bring it down to no avail till this effort with tariffs. Another is exceptions in products- for India this includes semiconductors, smartphones and pharmaceuticals. Another factor is that postpandemic inflation in 2021-2022 created higher profit margins in auto, retail and other sectors of the economy. As a result only 30-40% of the tariff gets passed onn to consumers. In autos only about 20% because buyers cannot afford the high prices. Some tariffs are still being negotiated and are a foreign policy tool to get India to stop funding Russia in the Ukraine war knowing that India was importing most of its oil from non-Russian sources till 2019. China is also funding Russia, that is true but the US can insist on exercising its leverage with Asian partners not China. With China the tariff on fentanyl and the overall 47% tariff- down from 57% after meetings in Busan, South Korea between Xi and DJT last month- shows the US takes the Chinese role in distorting world trade to its benefit seriously.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
India is a frugal innovator producing satellites for space at a fraction of the cost. NASA sent Maven, a probe to Mars for $671 million, it cost India $74 million to send an orbiter to Mars. Yet India as one of the few space exploring nations has only 3% of the market. Invest India, India's investment promotion agency says this will increase to 10% by 2030. In March India's NewIndia state owned space agency sent three dozen space satellites for OneWeb into space after launches by Russia were stopped. In 2023 the US is the largest by far in the space sector economy. China and Russia are also in this space.