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Closed vaccination centers in Rome soon after the Italian government with EU backing stopped a shipment of Astra Zeneca vaccines made in Italy that were being sent to Australia, show the extent of lack of clear direction in the EU on vaccination. Both the European Medicines Agency and the British Health and Medicines Regulatory agency have said that the Astra Zeneca vaccination of people has benefits that far outweighs any reports of risk from rare kind of blood clots. A professor of Imperial College, London, says that "the pause is a disaster for the vaccination uptake in Europe, which was already on slightly unsteady ground in some countries." 

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Brexit is now seen as based on some mistaken ideas that were presented to the public without much thought or seriousness. One of these ideas is that Britain would simply be free to sign its own trade deals with other countries. One such deal would be with a 1.3 billion people rapidly expanding economy like India. Yet India - Britain trade is very small today and is vastly overshadowed by EU - India trade relations. In fact the European Union is India's largest trade partner. By removing non tariff barriers and tariffs India's economy would expand by 1.3 % annually adding $25 billion to India's GDP each year, Ifo research shows. The EU would see 0.14% growth in GDP, a gain of 21 billion euros annually. Germany would boost its automotive and machine tools industries, and India its textile and services industries.  Many British companies manufacture in India and are not exporters. This situation is not likely to suddenly change with Britain able to strike its own trade deals. ...

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President Macron of France says with the president of Sweden Ulf Kristersson at the Swedish Defense Academy- "The EU has to make bold decisions to defend Ukraine, to preempt any US decision to withhold of reduce its support." Europe should have its own security architecture independent of the US and Russia. it says Europe's effort was inadequate when Russia had completely revamped its war effort, that Europe should not shirk its responsibilities for its own defense. That no matter what happens with Ukraine aid in US Congress, or no matter what happens in the US presidential election in November, Europe will have done what it needs to do for its own defense. In doing this he said Europe needs to stand by Ukraine. 

Sweden is about to join NATO. A recent report in WSJ is shown on this page about the advanced defense manufacturing capabilities of Sweden for fighter jets, artillery and other systems.

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Youth unemployment and forced migration plays a major role in the Nepal general election. Rapper music Balendra Shah 35 years wins in parliamentary constituency over ex-PM Oli and wins the Nepal general election. He formed the RSP party to voice student protests against PM Oli's government and corruption, which was forced to resign. His goal is to generate 1.2 million jobs and double the per capital GDP from about $1500 to $3000. Nepal reflects the general jump in aspirations of youth across the Indian region. 800,000 young voters voted for the first time.

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Slow progress of vaccination drives in the European Union has led to rising frustration. This is leading to action from the EU. The EU and Italy have halted export of 250,000 doses of vaccine bottled at a factory in Rome, that is part of the Astra Zeneca supply chain.

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British prime minister, Boris Johnson, who succeeded Theresa May, is bringing in Dominic Cummings as a key adviser. Cummings ran the campaign for Leave in Britain's 2016 referendum on leaving the European Union. Cummings now joins Johnson in trying to tackle getting Britain out of the EU in 3 months by an October 31, 2019 deadline. Cummings is also the man he will rely on if a general election ensues following its loss of support in parliament. At present there is only a 3 vote majority for Johnson's government in parliament and lack of support from moderates in the ruling Conservative party.

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Recent polls in Serbia show support for joining the European Union at 50% and those opposed 34%. President Boris Tadic says EU is no paradise, but joining the EU and adopting its standards will move Serbia forward. He is campaigning for presidential elections in Serbia on a outspokenly pro-EU platform.

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The Dutch parliament approves a free trade area with Ukraine. Netherlands was the last country to approve this agreement. Populists of eusoskeptic views won a referendum in April 2016 leading to the agreement passed by the other 27 countries of the EU being modified to accomodate the euroskeptics- who pushed the view of Ukraine as another corrupt country that Netherlands tax payers would have to support. The agreement for a free trade area for EU and Ukraine itself was a result of the popular sentiment in Kiev and western Ukraine in favor of closer ties to the European Union, that led to protests in 2013-2014 and the election of pro-EU Petroshenko as president. Russia opposed the move, leading to the support of a Russia rebel movement in the eastern part of Ukraine. The Dutch elections of 2017 led to Dutch voters supporting prime minister Rutte's effort to support the European Union in helping Ukraine with economic ties. This puts Netherlands back into the core EU nations such as France, Germany, Spain and Italy, that back Ukraine and oppose Russian moves. ...

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Efforts to ramp up the actions on stopping illegal migration in the EU after the US president describes the shaky situation in Europe. EU ministers agree on centralized list of safe states to return migrants- Bangladesh, India, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. EU plans to downgrade trade ties with countries that do not cooperate. The idea of return hubs outside the EU are proposed by Denmark. Denmark is now working with UK to help the UK develop a Denmark style policy that cuts down illegal migration after the unrest in Britain over asylum hotels. Failure to act quickly and have a comprehensive approach that works to reduce illegal migrants across borders can lead to governments such as the UK being voted out for other parties with strong anti-immigration stance as the mood shifts in Europe.

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As Britain goes to general elections in May 2015, one of the issues in the election will be new referendum on membership in the European Union promised by prime minister David Cameron. Cameron has said he will negotiate a better deal for Britain in the EU and hold a referendum by 2017. The last referendum was in 1975, in which two thirds of voters supported membership in the EU. British disapproval of the EU has increased with immigration from newer EU members since the 2008 financial crisis, and increasing unemployment. Some recent polls show 42% voting to stay in the EU, and 39% opting out, suggesting a close vote. Negotiations for better terms mean treaty change, which would be opposed by France. Germany's Merkel also opposes changes on the immigration rules that do not allow free movement of labor. Other EU leaders see Cameron's moves on the EU being an effort to counter the UK Independence Party's push for EU exit, as the UKIP could draw Conservative right wing voters in the 2015 general election. ...

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In EU elections the German coalition parties of SPD, Greens and FDP barely get the vote percentage of the CDU/CSU of 30%. The SPD 13.9%, Greens 11.9% and FDP 5.2%. This is the lowest showing of the SPD. Much of the problems come from the SPD socialist democratic party that seeks to bring more social democracy by building infrastructure, public services as Biden is doing in the US, yet is prevented from doing this with the presence of the FDP which is against spending and seeks budget discipline as the charter of its party. The Finance minister Lindner is from the FDP. As a result the SPD and Greens are not able to do what they prmised in the last election to invest in infrastructure and public services. A visit to Germany shows this with the Deutsche Bahn, the rail stations with a dilapidated look as if built in the last century, trains late with old technology and less investment in maintenance. Not much construction is seen and public transport looks haggard and old. Germany's constitution makes investment difficult and court decisions limit spending or finding other sources for investment, the FDP acting as a brake on spending. The far right AfD vote was upto to15%. Without investment and offering a new vision of a modern Germany even after managing the energy crisis of which some of the fault lay with the way Merkel allowed over dependence on Russian supplies of oil and gas, even then the CDU is getting more of the vote. Another reason is the CDU under Leyen taking a strong stand on Ukraine with the SPD's history of maintaining better relations with Russia limiting its role in this crisis. As a result Germany under Scholz labors on with no solution to current problems requiring spending and investment. The next parliament election is in 2025. ...

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Experts point to several factors favoring a lawsuit by the EU against Google. Google's dominance in Europe is higher than in the U.S., with Google used for 90% of web searches in Europe. The case is easier to build in Europe because the EU commission acts as prosecutor, and EU judges in Luxembourg rarely overturn the commission's major decisions. The EU competition commissioner, Margrethe Vestager, who took office in Nov.1, 2014, sees the need to give smaller internet companies room to compete with Google as a definite priority. She favors setting a legal precedent through a formal court process, and says that "citizens and companies should see that we are willing to go to court if that is the right thing to do."

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Fact checking Apple CEO Tim Cook's statements on the EU Commission ruling for $13 billion in back taxes, shows that CEO Tim Cook's statement that "we never asked for, nor did we receive any special deals," is not true. Ireland let Apple determine what it would pay in tax, and Apple had the benefit of loopholes in Irish tax laws, the fact check by experts shows here. Apple's Cook also says it would hurt investment and jobs in Ireland. Another NYT article showed that the entire healthcare budget of Ireland would be covered by the $13 billion, and 66% of its budget for social support services to the public. Apple has 22,000 employees in Europe and 6000 in Ireland in 2016. Based on the $13 billion owed in taxes, for every job in Ireland the cost to Ireland is 2.17 million euros, and for every job in the EU the cost is 590,000 euros. Apple could turn around and locate in some other place, other than Ireland, in which case Ireland does not get the 6000 jobs. This is Ireland's incentive to give Apple tax benefits. Only if all EU countries had common tax laws would it be possible to avoid this situation, and generate much needed tax revenues at a time of cuts in public spending in healthcare, education, and social services, and invest in infrastructure, worker retraining. The alternative is for the EU to look at other remedies. This is what the EU Commissioner Vestager did when she announced that this was a state subsidy and illegal under EU rules. Because the appeal by Apple goes to the EU Courts the appeal is difficult say legal experts. The EU courts look at the legal aspects of the ruling, was it justified, not at the overall aspect of the ruling by Vestager, as EU Competition Commissioner. This may be why there is so much outcry from Apple, and other digital companies.  ...

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In extended diplomacy Carney visits Beijing, China and says middle powers are seeking ways to interact and trade in a world of big power rivalry. His visit is followed by visits by UK's Starmer and Germany's Merz, and preceded by Macron. At the same time Merz visits Ahmedabad for a kite festival and signs a new trade agreement with India, followed by Leyen and Costa of the EU who sign a EU-India trade agreement for 27 countries of the European Union. All this suggests carefully planned effort in Europe to create new channels of trade and reorient existing trade relationships that will be more resilient with the US shifting to focus on Monroe Doctrine idea of the Western hemisphere as its region of influence and security. This report shows pictures of Starmer and Xi meeting at the Plough Pub in UK in 2015 and reflects on how this has changed 11 years later with China now  a dominant power with the world's 3rd largest economy and a third of world's manufacturing and logistics. How does this change the relationship with China in 2026 for UK and Canada, and the EU? At the same time Germany-India and EU-India relationship creates a 2 billion people market with capital, technology and labor potential to create the largest potential driven economic group in the world, combining EU's 20 trillion to India's $4 trillion economy and mutually complementing, which has potential to rival the US at $30 trillion by 2030 as India grows rapidly in the new EU/Germany/India market and the EU gets a new boost with the complementarity of the two regions by 2035. This suggests that something new is happening and Germany after a lot of soul searching have hit on something we should see blossom by 2030 in the way China has grown since that picture with Cameron of Xi at the Plough Pub in UK. A problem China faces as it continues to push exports is that EU/ India and US will take in less exports and there is only so much it can put in Latin American and African market, UK/Canada market leading to industries with massive oversupply. Major economic redirection may result from the Merz/Leyen/Costa visit and firming up trade agreements with India if the EU, Germany and India have the determination to seize this opportunity in the 21st Century. As Leyen said it has the potential to create a stable world with values of the Bible, the Bhagavad Gita, and Mahajima Nikaya of the Buddha supporting the industrial states that emerged from the Industrial Revolutions. ...

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A new EU law on transport biofuels would require that biofuels companies prove that their biofuel production and use reduces greenhouse emissions by at least 35% compared with production and use of traditional fossil fuel. That means rapeseed oil based biofuels pass with 37% emissions cut and corn based ethanol which only does 22% fails. No US corn based ethanol would be imported into the EU and it shows that in these policies the EU is way ahead of the USA. See the link to the Yale -Columbia survey rating countries record on greenhouse emissions and the environment where the EU is way ahead of the USA, and the USA lags way behind in many areas.

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The chairman of the high level group on Financial Supervision for the EU says central banks neglected their roles as guardians of financial stability. He is proposing asystemic-risks council with central bankers from all over Europe as members , and with the clear intent of overseeing financial stability. Jacques Larsiere's plan is part of the overhaul of the regulatory framework for the EU. It has been endorsed by the European Commission.

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The EU Commission's first Vice President, Frans Timmerman, says it is ready to act against Poland under Article 7 of the Lisbon Treaty that protects the rule of law and independence of the judiciary. This would strip Poland of its EU voting rights. Poland's new law lets the government appoint judges letting it control the judiciary.   Timmerman said the Polish laws are "a systematic threat to the rule of law."

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DJT says EU is dragging its feet in coming  up with a trade agreement with the US. DJT says he will put 50% tariff on the EU, changes deadline from June 1 to July 9 to give the EU more time.

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Turkish Opposition alliance leader Kilicdaroglu, a civil servant who has acted with humility throughout his career leading the Republican party founded by Kemal Ataturk in 1923, says he will bring Turkey back into the European fold. He would do this by strengthening NATO and Turkey's participation in NATO, admitting Sweden, and by seeking membership in the European Union. He tells a huge crowd in Istanbul:   "There are 5.3 million people who will go to the ballot box for the first time and cast their votes, and they want freedom and democracy... This fact is very important for us, for Turkey, for the European Union of which we are trying to be a member, and for western civilization." The last line "for western civilization" is striking as Turkey now and its younger generation sees itself as part of western civilization, of the EU and the US. Modernization of Turkey happened after Kemal Ataturk became president in 1923 and Turkey's identity has been forged as part of Europe in the twentieth century. It is now returning to its roots from the period before the Renaissance in Europe. ...

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France has made the health pass for coronavirus mandatory for leisure and cultural venues starting July 21. The health pass will be mandatory for having a coffee, eating at a restaurant, or shopping in a mall from the beginning of August. The health pass is already in use in some form in many European Union countries. Denmark and Austria are using it for 2 months. Germany and Portugal are using it regionally depending on where the epidemic is severe. Greece which has a surge of tourism in summer from other EU countries is making it mandatory starting July 16 for entry into shops and restaurants. It was the absence of  any form of constraints on behavior in places such as Croatia with high tourism in summer that increased the surge in Germany and Austria last summer. Italy and Ireland are planning to make vaccination mandatory following France as the number of cases from the variants increase. Establishments that are violators of the mandatory rule in France will be fined 45,000 euros and persons responsible having to spend 1 year in prison. The mandatory rule has significantly increased the number of people seeking vaccination in France.      ...