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The Russian economy had GDP decline of 2% and was relatively not affected by the shutoff of imports of oil and gas from Europe in 2022. Gas exports to Europe began declining in the summer. The EU ban on seaborne oil from Russia and price cap went into effect in December 2022. Russia made a huge stimulus of 4% of GDP in 2022. The result is that only now in 2023 is the full impact being felt on the Russian economy.  WSJ reports that in January and February Russian exports of oil and gas revenue which makeup half of the budget fell by 46% year over year, while state spending jumped 50%. Analysts estimate that it would take a price of $100 for Russia to balance its books. Yet the Group of Seven price cap on Russian oil has brought it down to $50- the price the Ministry of Finance says Urals crude sold in February. This is a deep discount to the $80 price of Brent Crude, the US benchmark.  A bigger problem is the downward trajectory the Russian economy faces in future years. Worker shortages are severe for industry and a shift to wartime production does not add to productivity or productive capacity. The cut off from access to western technology and western financial markets will have a severe impact in the productive capacity for the economy, for oil and industrial production in the years to 2030. Russia needed to protect against the gradual shift away from fossil fuels to fight climate change by shifting the economy in a new direction using its access to western technologies not just China's technologies. Instead it now finds itself in a period of 1 year in 2022 when oil revenues surged with prices jumping from the war, and then a steady slump in all the inputs of development- supply of labor, capital and technology declining rapidly after 2023 as the costs of the Ukraine invasion are absorbed into the economy. As this report points out it is the social contract that similar to China's social contract of growth and improvement in standards of living that led to people having a large measure of confidence in the government. It was not fully grasped but it was the access to American and European Union plus Japanese technology, manufacturing, capital and markets that made this possible. With this absent the situation changes to put Russia, and China to a lesser extent as long as it trades with the west, on a different trajectory.  ...

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Scientific American says 8-11% impact larger emissions under the One Big Beautiful Act than the 61%-66% emissions cut under Biden IRA in 2035 over 2005. What is the reasoning behind DJT Republicans approach? 

Remember that the wealthiest House districts are now in the Democratic party and the working class, rural and poorer districts are now in the Republican party as shown in the recent WSJ analysis.  In this situation after  30-40 increase in the price of groceries, new and used cars, and housing costs 2019-2024 the argument is that American working families need relief. Another factor was the grasp of the fact that for climate change action to work China could not be allowed to build one coal plant a week (95GW of coal electricity capacity in 2024). In 2024 US represented only 12% of global emissions and EU only 6%, China, Russia, India, Brazil etc emitting the rest of 82%. 

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US Business has considerable apprehension about the former president in 2024 compared to its willingness to consider Trump in 2016. At the time executives from investment bank Goldman Sachs and heads of oil companies joined the Trump administration. This time US business and corporate interests are apprehensive about becoming the target of a tweet they might find the next morning under a Trump administration. They are not supportive of student loan forgiveness, but when it comes to the CHIPS and Science Act they see president Biden as effective and helping industry. Business leaders have a negative view on the Trump effort through appointment of 3 Supreme Court Justices of overturning decades old rights of women on abortion, and on this issue alone many will support Harris-Walz, overriding other concerns they might have. The visions of Harris and Trump are so vastly different with one calling climate change a hoax and hyping up social issues and infrastructure needs without any record of delivery when in office, and the other a strong position on climate change, wages and income, delivering on infrastructure and CHIPS that US Business. The result is that it leaves US Business with no better option in 2024 than to support the vision  that takes America forward. There are different sections of the business community which have different priorities.  Silicon Valley, and oil, pharmaceuticals because it profits most from light regulation which brings with it social costs is a special issue not addressed here. Other business, banking, automobiles, and a range of other industries have other priorities yet also see the need for the economy and the US to move forward with a different vision than one that simply ignores climate change, and fails to address child care, child poverty, wide disparities in wealth, and other issues facing of wages, cost of living facing most Americans.  ...

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Patrick Healy of the NYT says Super Tuesday in 2020 changed the way Senator Joe Biden of Delaware was seen by the country. With wins in 9 states he was seen differently and unified the Democratic party behind him, galvanizing support across the country. The 2023 State of the Union Speech offered another opportunity and Biden seized it talking about Medicare, Social Security, infrastructure and bipartisan work with Senators in Congress for 2 climate laws and the Inflation Reduction Act, cutting pharmaceutical costs in the face of corporate opposition and lobbying in Congress. So feisty was that speech that one has to go back to president Kennedy's first Inaugural in 1961 to see that kind of direct call to all those looking for the nation's future in the face of seemingly intractable challenges of the new Cold War, and of the lack of imagination, candor about problems and lack of action. The State of the Union in 2024 offers that kind of opportunity again and there is little doubt that president Biden will seize it to appeal to his countrymen again. ...

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Ford. will still make $8 billion to $11 billion this year even after losses of $3 billion in electric cars. By 2026 Ford says it will earn 8 to 9 percentage points in profit from EV's. Ford is basically investing in the EV industry now for the long run. It is also part of the effort to move away from fossil fuels. Government incentives and subsidies will help companies and buyers of vehicles make the transition to EV's to fight climate change.  Companies that have not invested in EV's such as Toyota risk falling behind in EV's at a time when climate change is a major priority for buyers and governments around the world. Toyota is moving to a new CEO who can better take up the challenge of EV's. Under the previous CEO Mr. Toyoda Toyota clung to a mistaken belief that hybrid cars were all that is needed to reduce use of fossil fuels. German, Chinese and US manufacturers are taking the lead in EV's and Japan has fallen behind.  WSJ has never favored government subsidies and is critical for this reason. Yet it is clear that in some situations such as fighting climate change, building infrastructure, and redesigning the supply chain, government has to take the lead. Eisenhower in the 1950's with a government led effort helped build the national highway system, the first in the world. Biden is making a similar effort on multiple fronts. The redesign of the supply chain comes after private industry without proper direction from the government over concentrated manufacturing in China with Japan as a supplier into China. Presidents Bush and Obama wasted time and resources better devoted to national priorities at home on wars in remote places such as Afghanistan and Iraq. President Biden wrapped up the war in Afghanistan and completely disengaged from an area that is of no constructive interest to America. Resources are now concentrated in the right way on real national priorities from manufacturing at home to fighting climate change, fighting the cost of living crisis and building better infrastructure for workers and families. ...

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Cheap abundant coal supplies support the Australian lifestyle and standard of living. Australia is a big exporter of coal. Here prime minister Morrison is shown with coal in his hand in parliament lauding its benefits to the Australian economy as a source of its wealth. Only now with floods, drought and fires is the real cost of coal becoming apparent to Australians. In elections in 2021 Mr. Albanese of Labour party replaced Mr. Morrison and promised changes. Mining interests and jobs influence key swing constituencies in elections leading to the impasse on climate change action. As one of the windiest and sunniest places in the planet Australia says the OECD is in a position to play a large role in renewable energy. This suggests that policy so far has been shortsighted. Worse it may have fueled the rise of temperature on the planet by providing cheap coal for China to grow at rates close to 12% for decades.

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This report on Danish wind energy company Orsted, looks at the journey of the largest developer of wind energy in the world from a company sending natural gas from North Sea to Europe to a joint developer with Denmark's Vestas of offshore wind farms. Last year Orsted, pronounced Ehrr-sted in Danish for the O and named after a Danish scientist, decided to invest $57 billion in offshore wind farms by 2027. It was not easy and the path required a bold vision and bold action to invest in wind energy for the long term even as debt piled up from losses in natural gas competing with coal, climate change committments were not yet strong, subsidies were required to make wind energy competitive, and debt was piling up. It would take a decade of hard work and technological innovation to produce wind energy that could outcompete coal and natural gas on cost without subsidies. The year is 2009 with the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. The predecessor company to Orsted was losing money in natural gas with lower cost coal energy generation in Europe at the time. Yet the mood was changing governments were willing to invest in renewables. In 2012 a new CEO Paulsen did a review of 12 businesses of this Danish energy company and decided wind energy was the only one with long term prospects. The Copenhagen Climate Change Conference created new awareness for the need to come up with a long term solution for energy that has no negative health effects and is renewable. That Conference set a goal of 20% for renewable energy by 2020 in the total mix for Europe up from 14%. Paulsen saw an opportunity in the crisis at the company then called Danish Oil and Natural Gas. The new company was called Orsted and the old divisions in fossil energy were sold to invest in wind farms offshore. The way Paulsen saw the situation was that the company had to take radical action whether it wanted to do so or not. By 2012 Danish pension funds were investing in large offshore wind farms of Orsted, taking a stake of as much as 50% in the Nysted wind farm. The Danish government which owned 80% of Orsted thought its projects were risky. Hard work with Vestas which builds the turbines in Denmark paid off in developing a huge new turbine that would bring costs down 65% comparing 2020 with 2012.  In 2018 the European Union was spending about 92 billion euros or $112 billion on energy subsidies including to wind farms. Britain also heavily subsidized offshore wind farms such as Hornsea 1 at about $198 a megawatt hour for 15 years double the electricity price in recent years. Windy conditions and shallow waters in the North Sea were favorable. Technology was being developed with Vestas which would reduce the cost each year. By 2016 Orsted was listed in Copenhagen. The remaining oil and gas business was then sold for $1 billion. The returns are less in wind than coal and natural gas- about 7-8% a year but the big thing is that there is certainty in this compared to coal and natural gas which are volatile and uncertain. The lesson companies are learning in renewables is that with solar and wind technology can. bring down costs, a lot of hard work and creative work lies ahead, that crisis can be turned into opportunity for companies that can be focussed enough to produce results. ...

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U.S. president Trump announces withdrawal from the Paris climate change accords, saying the U.S. will consider re-entering the agreement  or coming up with a new deal. He said "I was elected to represent Pittsburgh, not Paris." Trump said he was concerned about the environment, and avoided saying climate change scientific evidence was not correct. He based his concerns on the idea that China and India were getting an unfair financial advantage over the U.S. The U.S. had pledged under the Paris accords to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 28% from 2005 levels by 2025. The WSJ's Stokols and Ballhaus point out that president Trump had the option because of the nonbinding agreements committing nations to a broader goal of reducing emissions to combat temperature change of of 3.6 degrees F, to have modified emissions targets and still remained in the Paris accords. For Trump the motivation may have rested more on politics to shore up support in the Republican party which has largely opposed climate change targets.  ...

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This BBC report shows how much has changed with Germany's erstwhile leaders. From 1998 to 2005 Mr. Gerhard Schroeder was head of the German government. His ties with Russian leaders and Gazprom have led to severe criticism in Germany. He survived an effort this week to remove him from the local chapter of the Social Democrat Party. He now faces a loss of his office and staff and other privileges in the German parliament. The Budget committee of parliament says "he no longer upholds the continuing obligations of his office," says this report. Mr. Schroeder has filed a suit against the German parliament in the Berlin Administrative Court. This BBC report shows how things are changed in 2022- Merkel, Schroeder, Steinmeier and other politicians of the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats face intense public skepticism of their role in a situation where Germany faces a cold winter with gas rationing. It is the Greens with Robert Habeck who are faced with the hard work of finding the energy to meet the shortfall and to build back on renewable energy to fight climate change. Very little was done under the previous administrations it now appears, as the public looks back with regret. ...

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Failure of the COP28 summit agreement to call for the phaseout of fossil fuels. Oil producing UAE, Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries are seen as watering down the final agreement in their own interests ignoring the impact of climate change fires and drought, floods in 2023. The COP28 conference in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, is unusual in that it is taking place in a country that is a big producer of fossil fuels and has no immediate interest in cutting use of fossil fuels.

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The German government's committee on the future of transport has proposals that call for fuel price hikes and electric vehicle quotas as Germany faces heavy European fines for not reducing transport emissions since 1990. This means the stretches of unlimited speed on the Autobahn roadways in Germany may now have speed limits. The proposals include limits of 80 mph on roadways and fuel tax rises from 2023, abolition of tax breaks for diesel cars, quotas for electric and hybrid cars that could get half of the emission cuts needed.

A series of diesel emissions cheating scandals have damaged confidence in diesel, and the lack of progress in climate change through less coal use has damaged confidence in Germany's climate change efforts. A new climate change law is planned.

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U.S. president Trump is to announce U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 Paris climate change agreement. The process of withdrawing is one that takes 4 years to complete, putting off a final decision till after the presidential election of 2020.

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With the natural disasters following one after the other as hurricanes Milton and Helene have done in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, the dire disaster funding situation at FEMA in 2024 needs to be tackled. The Nation is throwing dollars in wasted spending with capital market misallocation at a time when no provision is made for climate change action in disaster relief. To compound the insult AI billionaires are asking for the equivalent of the GDP of many European nations to fund AI for profit.

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Gerard Baker in the WSJ says the abortion rulings of the Supreme Court and the Inflation Reduction Act, Climate Change bills have energized Democrats. He says that as the chances of president Trump running as the nominee of the Republican party in 2024 increased in August, the electoral prospects for Congress of the Republican party have diminished. He says the Mar-a-lago taking of documents by FBI and investigation are also now seen as part of national security issues.

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Raphael Glucksmann is emerging as a surprise for the Socialists just as Macron emerged out of the cabinet of Francois Hollande as leader of En Marche. Socialists and Democrats Alliance is the party group in the EU parliament that represents social democratic parties in Europe that govern in Germany, Denmark, Spain and are prominent in Sweden and France. Melenchon leads an alliance of socialist parties in France but has not done as well with moderates. Raphael Glucksmann is seen as a new voice for Socialists in France in upcoming elections. Migration has shaken up parties in Europe but this may be receding in importance as most of the socialist parties have shifted to strict policies to keep out migrants. This is happening in the US as Mr. Biden has closed the border with Mexico. Climate Change was an issue in elections helping the Greens in the last chancery election. As socialist parties and conservative parties adopt the Greens policies on climate this has reduced support for Greens from the peak in 2020. ...

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The U.S. government's National Climate Assessment report in November 2017 says observational evidence proves that human action is the main driver for climate change. It warns of sea levels rise as high as 8 feet by the year 2100. It shows damage from climate change that is already happening from a rise in the U.S. by 1.8 degree Fahrenheit of global warming since 1900. Trump has announced withdrawal by the U.S. from the Paris Climate Change Agreement that would cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 percent by 2025 compared to 2005 levels. The Trump administration is relaxing rules by the EPA that would have contributed to the goals of the Paris Agreement.

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Chris Buckley in the NYT today makes no mention of the Bo Xilai episode in 2012 and what this meant for Xi's future policy actions. Cheng Li calls it the most significant happening since the Lin Biao incident in 1971 and Tianmen in 1989. Brookings Institution offers this discussion of the Bo Xilai episode with Cheng Li, China expert on its economic and political elites. Cheng Li rejected the idea that China at the time in 2012 reflected "resilient authoritarianism," instead anticipating problems such as Bo Xilai emerging as a demagogue putting China in an ultranationalist and uncertain direction. This happened during the transition to a new team of leaders led by Xi Jinping in 2012. Xi could see the corruption in the CCP and the hypergrowth in China causing problems of irreparable environmental damage (now climate change), regional inequality, and offering an opening for demagogues to step into this mix of problems. Xi  acted devising policy shifts away from Hu Jintao and Wen Biao of the Bush-Paulsen era and pushing away from focus on rapid growth, shifting to counter inequality, unstable dependence on construction and housing, and excessive debt of that period. Little mention is given to this in NYT Chris Buckely's version of US-China relations in today's NYT (November 13, 2023). ...

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People of America reflect on what has the most promise for our future?  Critics have focused so much on delivery on one night to forget what was actually said. The president's message to Congress and the American People of last week is all there for everyone to read. It states what was said in the State of the Union in January 2024 on the floor of Congress with vigor not seen since the days of FDR in 1932. Critics could read the actual text of what Biden said in the debate, and they did nothing of that acting in ways that only the uneducated would do and manipulating information about the president's health in dishonorable ways. Polling is an uncertain business and may be all wrong depending onthe sample and what questions are asked. This was proven true in last week's results of the French election. Where are the people relying on polls who predicted RN National Rally on top when it ended up in third place. The pundits have not reflected on the meaning of the French election and the British election where parties that made cost of living action, fighting for working families, and infrastructure investment coming out on top. Who is going to fight for and take climate change action and going delinquent on climate change is that an answer the American people will make? Who has done the most for climate change action, health care and education? How does the US compete with China without investing at home a fight which president has fought with economic theory from the Reagan/Friedman era that let American industry wither while China took the lead in industry after industry?  ...

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It is a major step to cut carbon missions in half by 2030. The Biden plan is to have majority of cars to be electric by 2032. It does not require a certain number of cars to be electric only requires carmakers to meet certain emission requirements overall and the carmakers then choose what the mix of gas, electric, hybrid would be. It also has concessions to workers unions and carmakers, and an understanding that there is resistance to buying electric when charging stations don't exist in adequate numbers and costs are high for electric. It does this by allowing accelerated development in 2030, 2031 2032 to do the job, as by 2030 enough capital investment and research will have happened to make this possible. This also seeks to not politicize climate change in the way the former president seeks to do as a realistic plan is needed and simply having no plan and eliminating the political opponent's plan and denying climate change is not possible in 2024 as in 2016, there is just too much happening in terms of floods and fires for people to not believe. Automakers and workers themselves believe that a plan is needed to fight climate change in 2024 even though these same automakers such as VW and large automakers in the US had a wait and see attitude in 2016. For the Biden administration listening to carbuyers, carmakers, auto workers and the general public to make the plan workable and meet real concerns is the best way forward in 2024. ...

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After 3 decades the US is finally offering the scale and scope of infrastructure investment overseas that is needed. President Biden says $200 billion will be invested in infrastructure overseas over 5 years at meetings of the G-7 in the Alps south of Munich in Germany. Along with its partners and with government and private investments the size of the investment will reach $600 billion over 5 years to 2027. This will include projects such as $2 billion for solar energy in Angola, and a $600 million submarine telecommunications cable connecting France to Singapore.

It is a combination of direct government aid and private investment. President Biden sees Build Back Better World as the overseas version of his Build Back Better America for workers and families in the US for which Congress has authorized $1 trillion in infrastructure and climate change initiatives in the US.

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A study by Blanchard and Bernanke shows energy prices and supply chain constraints were key factors in creating the surge in inflation that happened in 2022. The Ukraine war played apart in raising energy prices . How much effect did president Biden's $1.6 trillion American Rescue Plan have on inflation? Bernanke and Blanchard say not what critics had suggested. Once energy prices were brought under control through the president's policies to $75 energy prices played less of a role in inflation. Supply chain effects also eased throughout 2022. The persistent effect remained the mismatch between supply and demand that is called The Great Resignation that came as a response from teachers, nurses, hospitality sector workers with low minimum wage on which it was hard to make a living. President Biden's payments to these workers gave them enough room to make a definite choice that they would not take the risks during the pandemic and the stress and opted for shifting to other jobs. Employers struggled to fill vacancies and raised wages in response. To reduce inflation the Fed opted to raise rates to slow the demand for goods and services in the economy which has led to a moderating of inflation from the high of 7% in 2022 to falling below 5% by April 2023. Fed chairman Powell's aggressive attitude to inflation was based on not letting an inflationary psychology set in, that could damage the interests of workers and families who had already suffered from the pandemic's effects. This is where we are today as the economy adjusts to the fight against climate change, investments in renewable energy and infrastructure, and efforts to reduce the deficit by president Biden in a way that reduces the widening gaps and social divisions in society.   ...

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The WSJ cites economic studies that show 60% of China's overseas loans are troubled in 2022 compared to 10% in 2010. China has scaled down the Belt and Road Initiative and is reorganizing the effort to introduce risk controls and reduce lending. China's preferred approach in an increasing interest rate environment is to extend the maturity of loans. Yet the climate change disasters and rising rates have put many countries into a highly indebted position. China no longer touts the Belt and Road as a way for developing countries to advance their economies and infrastructure development.

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Obesity in the US is as high as about 40% in West Virginia, Louisiana, and Oklahoma. It is lowest about 25% in Colorado, Vermont and Hawaii. About 22 states have obesity rate over 35%. Compare this with China which is seeing obesity increase from about 15% in 2023 to 20% in 2034. Real competition between the two countries starts with areas like health care coming out of the pandemic when looking at the true interest of both peoples instead of geopolitics creating a huge distraction from problems of health, climate change and education. Meat intake has tripled in China and a return to more vegetable and fruits and ancient grains is something that is needed badly, also helping tackle climate change. The states in the South and midwestern US have higher rates of obesity followed by northeast and western states. This includes in the South Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, Mississippi, Arkansas. In Midwest it includes Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa and Kansas. It is useful to note that this is in Voice of America news which is aimed at an overseas audience and this kind of information is not seen widely in US media. Robust food programs ae needed especially for people living in poverty. Health consciousness needs to be emphasized in all aspects of life and worklife, workspaces, living locations and transportation options all need to be devised around this. Bussel of the Robert Woods Foundation says even ten years back no state had over 35% of the population being obese. Clearly headed in the wrong direction with all the discussion in media run by billionaires on everything but what most affects the quality and ease of living of ordinary people. ...

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The increasing use of millet grains to substitute for wheat and rice is good for India as it copes with climate change. Millet grains are more resilient in the current heat waves that will continue for some time. Millet grains are also better from a nutritional perspective. The entire chain, planting season timing, irrigation and fertilization of crops, need to be researched and the research used to prepare for climate change with new agricultural practices, say experts. Nutri cereals such as jowar, raagi, bajra, have the physiology to be resilient and have lower water demands, higher tolerance for coarse soils and heat, says a professor of ecology at Columbia University. The UN has declared 2023 as the Year of Millets and PM Modi has also launched a campaign for greater use of Millet grains. Millet grains have a high level of iron, fiber and certain vitamins.  With obesity increasing in all countries  after the world moved away from these Millet grains and other ancient grains the time has come for a return to the more nutritious grains of the past. Only one or two generations ago in our families history these Millet grains and ancient grains were used widely resulting in better health and fewer of todays medical conditions. ...

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The problems that hit the UK economy with the announcement of unfunded tax cuts were worsened by very poor communications, the cavalier attitude of the new Truss government and finance minister Kwarteng, and a lack of experience, says this report in the WSJ.The toxic mix of inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the US, and the conflicting messages from the Conservative party with critics within the Conservatives calling the step misguided, had a strong impact on financial markets. Yields on British government bonds jumped beyond that of Greece and Italy, and the British pound fell with large drops in its value falling to 1.03 to the US dollar. Only the intervention by the Bank of England helped recover the pound to $1.11 and yields that went up from 3.6% to over 5% to drop back down to 3.8%. Many other countries face the same high inflation and rising interest rates in the US, so that poorly managed political situations such as the leadership race in the Conservatives party in the UK can have damaging economic consequences. This is a point of caution for other countries economies and governments says the WSJ. Italy's new government coalition has managed to keep expectations of major changes to policy to the Draghi government to the minimum in anticipation of economic problems that could emerge with differences with the European Union, and to avoid poorly managed communications. This is true of all countries in the world and a reminder of the importance of correct messaging in financial markets, and taking a prudent role of funding extra spending programs. This was also done in the $360 billion Inflation Reduction Act and Climate bill of 2022 by the Biden administration. where the dollar spending was adequately accounted for with policies considered prudent to tackle climate change, support badly impacted segments of society, and new infrastructure. This is a learning lesson for other governments. ...