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Mr. Trump has decisively changed the Republican party. Most Republicans support Mr. Trump personally, less the Republican party. Mr. Lindsey Graham, a senator from South Carolina, says of the Republican party before Trump that it had become a bit staid, that we looked like the banker next door who may foreclose on your house. Mr. Romney epitomized that in his view. Gone are the views on deficits, on wars, and on imports and transfer of technology to China as being acceptable.  Five years from 2015 when Mr. Trump came into prominence with his new style taking on the establishments of both parties with a fierce disdain for convention, both the Bushes and the Obamas and Clintons, the Republican party is completely transformed. Registered Republicans are now 60% non college educated in 2020 compared to 50% non college educated in 2016. The Trump policies on trade putting American workers first and America first have a resounding popularity with this audience- this should be no surprise after decades of job losses and factories shipped overseas under the previous administrations for 2 decades. Most of these workers are not college educated and are white and had enjoyed a good standard of living with a high school education in American factories till the shift of American manufacturing to China destroyed good paying jobs and impoverished the American working class.  Only 30% of college educated people are registered Republicans in 2020 compared to 40% in 2016. Overwhelmingly about 90% of registered Republicans are white.  They are majority male and older but there is a significant about 40% female and 40% young population under 40 years of age. This might resemble the party put together by Missouri Congressman Harry Truman as he led the Democratic Party in 1948 with a majority of non college educated Democrats, fighting for American workers and America first in the cold war with Russia. Truman also had a rough Missouri farm language and accent comparable to Mr. Trump's rough style and language disdainful of the old establishment and new tech establishment. Both were heavily disliked by the media and both did not let this bother them in any way. Both liked facing large crowds as Truman showed in campaigning by train across the country and Trump has shown in campaign rallies run in his own way. ...

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BBC's Mark Tullly reflects on the period of coverage from 1962-1994 of South Asia. He says of Indira Gandhi that she took the democratic process out of the Indian National Congress party, and set up her sons as future leaders that was undemocratic. Here he reflects on that period in an intervew with the BBC after he left the BBC.  He has deep connections to the Indian period after 1800 as his great grand father on his mothers side was around 1840 in a part of Uttar Pradesh where British planters had farmers plant opium that would later be bought by planters for export. This coincides with the period when Britain in Hong Kong traded in opium as part of British trading in the emerging colonial culture British Empire. There is mixed legacy for Britain in India and China. The history of the Opium Wars in the 1850's and opening up of colonial ports ended with the 1900's revolution and the emergence of the CCP in China by 1950. In India the legacy was mixed bringing together this part of Asia into a new nation and bringing parliamentary traditions of Britain that provided the basis for good governance.  Tully is a softspoken thoughtful Englishman who revolted against British classical education in his youth and studied history and religion at Cambridge, made friends with the future bishops of Canterbury and Lincoln at Cambridge. He is not the Englishman of the Empire as his fondest memories are of the servants verandahs on the bungalows of Britishers and the smoke from their quarters, and the language. So it is a thoughtful view that he gives of the undemocratic nature of Indira Gandhi and mismanagement of the economy that could have changed if India had gone in a different direction under other leaders in the the 1990's. Why is this significant? China's modernization drive started in the 1990's. India's by the undemocratic nature and mismanagement under Indira Gandhi did not start its modernization till 2010, about 20 years after China, opening up a huge gap that is only now being corrected leading to problems for world security, US security, European security and Indian security. And delaying the aspirations of development of 1.4 billion people for 2 decades. Vikshit Bharat cannot come fast enough for both Merz in Germany and Leyen at the European Union, who last week and this week visit Ahmedabad and India for the Kite festival and for Republic Day 2026. ...

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India China Border and rail connection $40 billion project Chengdu to Lhasa 2025. The infrastructure brings China greater access to the western region of China some of it from the occupation of Tibet in the 1950's that now makes up territory the size of 80% of the contiguous US. India is rapidly modernizing it's side of the border with tunnels and bridges.  This situation is new. For most of history from 1000 to 1950's China had only a remote connection with the Tibetan and Indian border regions where nomadic tribes and Tibetans lived. Very few Chinese numbering by the hundreds or a few thousands may have visited the region as even under the British contacts were very limited with Tibet and border regions in the Himalayas. For China it is far from its major population centers in Beijing and Shanghai and Hong Kong, Shenzen. And it provides few advantages in spreading over a vast region that is remote and in high over 15,000 feet in the Tibetan and border regions. It is only the invasion of Korea and China by Japan in the close of the nineteenth and early part of the 20th century that has created the idea of having buffer regions that protect it from foreign powers. And this is what may happen over the next 50 years as the region goes back to what it was before the 1950's, but with modernization, as India does not seek to reach out beyond Himalayan borders into regions closer to China. ...

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This WSJ story shows how China started its steel industry from small beginnings when Chinese leader Deng visited a Nippon Steel plant in 1978. He made the decision to go big with Baosteel, with an investment of $6 billion, with the words- "if we do it lets do it big." This was 36 times the Chinese foreign exchange reserves at the time. From 4% of steel production, this went up and up, passing the U.S. in 1993, past Japan in 1996, and in 2018 producing three times the steel of U.S., Russia and China combined, producing 923 million metric tons of steel in 2018, or more than half of world production of steel. With steel China was able to build its automobile industry, shipbuilding, bridges, infrastructure, high speed rail network. This was done using global demand, subsidies from the government, cheap loans and tax breaks. Markets worldwide were affected by substantial excess production in China. From Baosteel the spread of the steel industry to all 23 Chinese provinces led to China accounting for 25% of world exports. By 2016 5 million workers mostly from the agrarian countryside were employed in the steel industry, helping China transform itself into an rapidly urbanizing and modern economy. It was a period when the rail network was tripled between 1975-2017, with shipping companies that ensured access to Australian coal and Brazilian iron ore. From 2011 to 2017 Chinese steel dropped global prices by 57% triggering closure of steel mills in EUrope and the U.S. About a third of trade complaints since 2001 by G20 countries against China are about steel. After entry into the WOrld Trade Organization Chinese steel exports rose to 8% of GDP from 2%. Subsidies, cheap energy, and shift of agrarian workers to cities. U.S. investigations around 2006 showed Chinese steelmakers subsidies covered 30% to 45% of the subsidized value of steel pipes exported overseas. China's steel prices were set 20-40% lower than the U.S. China responded to complaints saying it was trade protectionism. The WTO rules call for full disclosing of all subsidies. This was disclosed 5 years after joining WTO in 2001, and only for central subsidies. Local government subsidies were not disclosed till 2016- the U.S. says 15 years late. Still the Bush and Obama administrations failed to take action. In 2018 Mr. Trump seized on this as a campaign issue that resonated with American workers in manufacturing communities across the U.S. In 2018 November president Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports of Chinese steel. A six month probe by U.S. officials had already shown 40% of sales value came from subsidies for corrosion resistant steel from China. The U.S. Trade Commission imposed tariffs of its own from 39% to 241%, with the Trump tariffs of 25% coming as an additional tariff to tackle the trade surplus with China. Meanwhile in China the government is closing uncompetitive smaller steel mills and in 2016 it combined baosteel with Wuhan Steel to create a larger company, and consolidate remaining companies. Baosteel now provides the steel for CIMC to dominate the steel container business, and to make ship to shore cranes, and make the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge.  It also goes to show what can be accomplished from small beginnings for countries in the developing world from Asia to Africa and Latin America, with government and industry focussed on development and growth.   ...

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The global economic map is rapidly redrawing bringing US and Europe closer. The US has imported more goods from Europe this year than from China. In September alone says WSJ Germany exported 50% more goods to the US year over year with the weaker euro increasing the momentum. European FDI foreign direct investment in the US increased by 13.5% in 2021 to $3.2 trillion. US FDI to Europe increased by 10% to $4 trillion. There is a push on both sides of the Atlantic to increase local manufacturing, and to increase trade, and shift supply chains away from the overdependence on China.  

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For what a ruble buys in Russia , 2.7 times what a dollar buys in the US, Russia gets alot of bang out of its defense budget of $149 billion, about $401 billion (Purchasing power) compared to US $997 billion. Add to this Russia is now a war economy in the war with Ukraine and concentrates its forces in one theatre not four as the US spread out over Indo-Pacific, Europe and Middle East and Korean peninsula. This is the reason behind most of DJT's actions reflecting realities in defense. Shut down the Middle East theatre which is also what the American people want by moving everything in the direction of economic progress, turning down the revolutionary and sectarian ideologies that roiled Egypt of Suez, Iraq and Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan in the 60's and dragged the world into costly insane wars. And do this with the consensus of Russia, China and India. Wind down the war in Europe- accept the Russians as a Northern European power with a settlement of the Ukraine conflict, and let Germany lead Europe's defense. Manage the relationship in the Indo-Pacific with India and South and Southwest Asian investments in economic infrastructure that will offset China's rapid growth of the last three decades by incentivizing South Asia and South western Asia parts of which were called the Middle East by the Britons and now can be rengaged in the South /Southwest Asian group of nations led by the US. This is the policy for the next 25 years to 2050 that a Russia, Germany, US, China, India consensus sees as a constructive future for the people of the world.   ...

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Inflation is receding as an issue in the 2024 elections as the CPI index dropped below 3% in July as reported by the Labor Department. It was 2.9% lowest since 2021. Greg Ip says when Trump is saying bacon costs 5 times more now he needs to find another supermarket. That is the joke as Trump is really getting ripped off. Ip says bacon prices are up 18% since 2020 when Biden took office. Trump says at rallies grocery prices are up 70%, Ip says fact correction -up 21% since January 2021 not 70%. Trump says gas prices are $5.00 a gallon. Fact correction- gas prices are $3.75 a gallon and falling, says Ip. Trump wildly exaggerates. Trump says he will cut energy and electricity prices by 50% in 12-18 months. His answer "Drill Baby Drill." Experts cited by Greg Ip say even if new offshore and onshore leases are given, increase in supply is marginal and years away. Gas prices are determined by the world price determined by OPEC and Russia, says Ip.  Trump will increase inflation says this report because of tariffs he plans of 60% on imports from China and 10% from other places. That would increase inflation by 1.4 to 1.7% say analysts. Greg Ip of WSJ offers more clues. Inflation linked bonds see inflation dropping to 2.2% in 2025 instead of 2.6% predicted earlier. Jerome Powell at the US central bank the Fed and president Biden hav done their job well and are not letting up, continue to work on it diligently every day. ...

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Over the last 5 years 2021-2025 Americans who are more excited than concerned about AI has dropped from 18% to 10%, and Americans who are more concerned than excited has grown from 37% to 52%, in Pew Research surveys. Showing that self-interested tech companies such as Microsoft and OpenAI, Google are making loud claims for AI that do not reflect the views of the American people as a whole in 2025.

Americans by large margins in Pew Research believe AI will help in day to day tasks from weather forecasting to inventing new medicines. And by large margins of 40% Americans think AI will hurt ability to think creatively and form meaningful relationships and by 20% will hurt for making difficult decisions. This shows Americans -similar to people in China as reported- believe in using AI for ordinary day to day routine tasks, and are wary of AI and aware that AI's usefulness is limited to such routine tasks only.

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Global oil demand is expected to shrink in first quarter 2020, for the first time in 10 years, according to the International Energy Agency. China made up three fourths of growth in oil demand in 2019. The border closures, flight cancellations, and factory closures, are affecting Chinese oil consumption as a result of the coronavirus. China's growth in first quarter is expected to be 3-4% than a year earlier.

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Does a 10% reduction in tariffs on China with the October 30 2025 agreement- made in Busan South Korea at APEC meetings- make a difference for companies relocating from China? It only does for smaller companies who are stuck with Chinese sources. Larger American companies prefer to diversify their supply chain and continue to relocate part of their factories to Vietnam, India and other countries knowing that the tariffs game will end up with allies EU, Japan and India in the 10-15% tariff range as a concession to US for putting up with trade disadvantages and job losses 2000-2025. China's will still be at 47% in comparison and the fentanyl issue causing serious questions to be asked by the American people which have not been grasped in China or even in the US by companies and politicians.   Does it affect the urgency and general shift out of China? The fentanyl issue is unlikely to change and it is likely to do lasting damage to China's credibility to a degree that it not clearly understood in China, and even not fully grasped even in the US today because of the sheer size of the number dead- more young Americans dead from fentanyl than in the Korean, Vietnam and First World Wars combined. Other issues are technology that has been transferred without a proper assessment of the importance to national security, the need to shift the manufacturing base back home that US industries have inadvertently and carelessly shifted to China in the disastrous Bush and Obama years 2000-2016, and for the jobs, the wages, and cost of living concerns when supply chains are outside one's control. This article asks the question about tariffs on India and Brazil as being contradictory and showing a lack of consistency in tariffs. India is compared to China with India facing a 50% tariff because of Russian oil purchases, and Brazil a 100% tariff related to treatment of former president Bolsonaro even though US has a trade surplus with Brazil. One expects that at some point India and the US will come to an agreement that lowers the tariffs in a way that was done with the European Union to bring it closer to 10%. China's tariff to be sure is still around 47% dropping from 57% a concession for rare earths and for the upcoming elections and economic concerns not because of policy intent which has not changed on  strong action for fentanyl which is also part of the Appeal to the People in the DJT base.   ...

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The New York Times reports that comments from Obama administration officials describe an alarming loss of trust and confidence between China and the USA over the last two years. David Shambaugh, director of the China Policy program at George Washington University, says the administration had hoped to work with China on major challenges like climate change, nuclear nonproliferation, and a new global economic order. China, he says, has failed to step up and play that role. He describes the Chinese as responding as an increasingly narrow-minded, self-interested truculent, hyper-nationalist, and powerful country. Jeffrey Baker, a key China policy adviser in the White House, says China's responses reflected a sense in Beijing that China was a rising power and the USA a declining power, especially after the strong rebound of the Chinese economy after the 2008 crisis. The administration is determined to counteract that impression. Other factors complicate things. China is facing a transition to a new leadership in the next year. There are differences within the Chinese Communist party leadership ranks about the direction China should take. Trade and currency issues have come to the point where American public opinion is shifting greatly, with educated professionals changing their views on trade and currency matters. See the recent WSJ/NBC September 2010 poll on world trade, reported by Murray and Belkin in WSJ, Oct 2, 2010. The Obama administration cannot ignore the deep concerns of the American people on these issues. The House overwhelmingly voted in September to threaten China with tariffs on its exports if the Chinese currency, the renminbi, is not allowed to appreciate significantly enough (experts estimate that it is overvalued by 20%). It is not clear whether the Administration's rhetoric on this issue is to assuage public opinion in a business as usual manner, or expected to achieve substantative results to rebalance world trade. The G-20 summit in S. Korea leaves this change for well into the future- China with current account surplus of 5.8% of GDP in 2009 is expected to lower this to 4% by 2015. With the high jobless rate in the US and the large and rising current account deficit, the United States may have reached a juncture where this cannot be put off well into the future years. Other issues, the different foreign policy objectives, and differing perceptions of China and the US of each other, the relationship with US allies in the region, may create additional tensions. These tensions may be navigated by governments of both countries, but the shift in American public opinion on trade, currency and jobs issues will require tangible and real change. As trade tensions will only increase in the next two years with the lack of fiscal stimulus on the jobs front, and no significant change in jobs expected from the Fed's purchase af additional Treasury debt, and a sense that the mutual benefit in the trade relationship with China has been lost to America's serious detriment. China's position may be perceived as stronger than it really is from the faster rebound from the 2008 crisis, and may in reality not be as Jeffrey Baker sees it. As David Barboza has reported in the New York Times, and experts have pointed out, the huge amount of lending encouraged by the government has accentuated weaknesses in the Chinese economy. A significant amount has gone into real estate speculation and will only increase the bad loans on the books of China's banks. This happens at the very time that growth is expected to slow down and make it harder to absorb the bad loans, as was done in the past. ...

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UN projections show median age of Chinese citizens will overtake that of Americans in 2020. Yet China's median income is only a quarter of that in the U.S. Life expectancy in China today is 76, very close to that in America. In 1960 a Chinese person born that year had life expectancy of 44 years.  China is aging at the pace of Japan, and a bit slower than South Korea, but wealth per capita was three times higher in South Korea and Japan than China when the aging accelerated. A Chinese woman fertility rate today is 1.6 compared to 4.6 in 1973. A prominent Chinese economist says in a recent report that median age in China in 2050 will be nearly 50 compared to 42 in America and 38 in India. WSJ cites figures showing China will have gone from 9 working age adults per retired person in 2000 to just two by 2050. So how to pay for retirement of all these workers today? Government spending on retirement is a tenth of GDP, about half the level in older wealthier countries, and increase in spending will impact growth. Today this is about 6.2% potential growth rate. It also pushes wages up with a shortage of workers in cities such as Shenzen and X'ian even with the use of new technology and robots in factories.  Solutions are to raise retirement age currently set at 60 years, increasing labor force participation of women as Japan has done, and increasing productivity. China has transferred 10% equity stakes in four state owned financial firms to the national pension fund to shore up its finances as estimates from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences show it running out of money in 2035. Traditionally children supported families in old age but the one child policy leads to situations where the child is working or in another city. In Suzhou near Shanghai, a retirement business sends 1800 helpers to private homes and 130,000 retired people, in a new trend. The city administration of Shanghai plans 400 neighborhood care centres for elderly by 2022, with health clinics, drop in facilities, and homes. 12,000 elderly people use one centrre in central Shanghai area of Changning. ...

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Is a Win-Win possible for the US/Israel and Iran possible with the US/Israel strikes and operations started March 1, 2026. Not just for the American and Israeli people, but for the people of the Arab countries and for the people of Iran, and for the people of Russia. Greg Ip in the WSJ, Marc Thiessen in the NYT, and Bret Stephens of the NYT have looked at this in this way and offer an alternative view of what might happen, even though the tendency of the WSJ and the Washington Post is to be skeptical and the NYT with an opposition to all things DJT offering pessimistic version. First, all the anticolonial writings that were read by Khamanei in Moshaad are no longer the case as the US is no longer acting to secure some benefit to itself as the British and French colonial powers did for themselves or their oil companies in pre1960's Iran. Second the US truly wants to learn the lessons of 30 years of troubles in the region at every level of the DJT administration which is to extend a true olive branch to the subdued foe as it did to Germany and Japan under generals Eisenhower and McArthur. Third moderates in Iran could emerge as in Germany ( Adenauer) and in Japan Shigeru Yoshida who worked to adopt the 1947 Japanese Constitution under Gen. Douglas MacArthur. Behind the student protests and now national protests there is a realization in Iran that living perpetually under sanctions is not the way to live, that it can increase oil production, get investment in its industry, and raise standards of living, by doing something different. That nuclear weapons development, supporting movements overseas, perpetual conflicts with Arab states, these things have been tried and are not working. That this is the last chance to build a prosperous Iran before fossil fuels are replaced by renewable energy over 10-15 years and which will make it that much harder to modernize and develop Iran for the benefit of Iran's future 110 million people. The gap with India will only widen as India catches up with China, the way China caught up with Japan. It is better to accept that these anticolonial writings that emerged from decolonizing Arab North Africa applied to the British and the French, and that the world is a different place today as the Indians and the Chinese have realized modernizing ancient societies with ancient religions is possible with the help of the Americans and the Europeans, working with the Americans and the Europeans. Theodore Roosevelt says in his Autobiography that one should be careful to judge people as the best have some negative aspects and the worst have some positive aspects, an experience he described in his dealings with progressives and those who opposed changes. Adenauer and Yoshida had contacts and dealings with earlier governments defeated in the war, but wanted to search for an entirely different path for rebuilding their countries having learned from experience. A thoughtful moderate Iranian outcome is possible as happened in Germany and Japan and which is beginning to develop in Venezuela.   ...

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China's plan to limit smartphone use by children under 8 years to 40 minutes a day.

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China Merchant Port Holdings takes a 70% stake in the Hambantota Port project, in an agreement with Sri Lanka Ports Authority. It will handle the commercial operations of the port under a 99 year lease. This is part of the plan to convert the $6 billion Sri Lanka owes to China into equity. Hambantota port has losses of $300 million since 2011. China plans to invest $600 million to develop the port. The port project is a $1.12 billion lease to China. Sri Lanka's ports minister says the port will not be a military base for any country and will operate under Sri Lankan law. China is making the investment as part of its One Belt, One Road Initiative, which has aroused concern in Japan, India and Australia.

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China has over the last 10 years expanded its investments and trade with Latin America to match that with its earlier investment in Africa. China's trade and investment structures in Latin America are designed differently to correct for earlier mistakes in Africa where investments turned into a debt trap for African nations. This time China invested slowly in Latin America and created better terms for loan repayment. A look at the public debt to China as percentage of GDP shows for Brazil $30 billion is less than 1% of GDP of $2.174 trillion (World Bank). After the outcry on public debt to China of Pakistan and some African nations China has a different strategy and Brazil has a different strategy slowing borrowing and focusing loans on infrastructure projects with good returns on investment. Brazil total debt to China since 2005 is $30 billion with loan borrowings slowing down (China's strategy) in the last decade, and carefully arranged by Brazil. Contrast this with $26 billion owed by Pakistan to China on GDP of Pakistan of 338 billion in 2023- 7.7 percentage points. Sri Lanka owes $24 billion to China on $84 billion GDP of Sri Lanka- 28 percentage points.   ...

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Xi Jinping's effort to shift the economy of China more towards serving the interests of Chinese who were left behind in the boom years includes a shift away from coal, away from real estate for speculation, and away from reliance on trade with the US and Europe as a driver for growth. This is proving to be difficult as the pandemic has increased demand for Chinese exports making trade a bigger driver for growth than before the pandemic. Introduction of a property tax to cut into real estate speculation has been scaled down to trials in 10 cities.  China did not put stimulus checks in the accounts of its people the way the US did which has led to Chinese domestic consumption not rebounding the way it has done in the US. Figures for consumer spending in China for September show an increase of 4.4% from the year earlier far below the pace of 8% set for 2019. The lack of social security and other safety nets in China makes people to save even more today. Chinese savings rate was 40% in 2019, today it is 45.2% for May 2021, according to one survey. Personal consumption makes up 38% of China's GDP in 2020, it was 39% in 2019. In the US it went up in 2021 June to 69% compared to 67% by the end of 2020. Infrastructure and construction deepened debt problems in China, and expanding exports created trade tensions. Both these problems have deepened with the pandemic. As this report says Chinese exports have gone gangbusters. Problems in production in Vietnam and Malaysia have added to export surge from China. China's trade surplus with the world is now at $535 billion in 2020, and surplus with US increased by 7% to $317 billion in 2020 from 2019.  Chinese government policy is now for "common prosperity" to reduce inequality and spread wealth and income more evenly for all the Chinese people. This is taking time and Chinese government policy is now set for the long run with these short run problems. ...

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Foreign investment at high rates helped China build its middle class. In the first quarter of 2023 it dropped to $20 billion from $100 billion a year earlier. This means about $80 billion will be going elsewhere to increase incomes and the middle class through investments in the US itself, and in countries such as India and Vietnam.

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With a turnout of 80% Argentines voted in favor of the socialist Peronist party after just 4 years of government of centre right party Cambiemos, headed by Mauricio Macri, a former mayor of Buenos Aires. Alberto Fernandez was elected with 48% of the vote to Macri's 40%. People in rural areas and in  poorer parts of Buenos Aires were hard hit by the economic crisis and rise in fuel costs, giving the socialists over 50% of the vote. The failed economic policies of Mr. Macri with overborrowing building up debt of $115 billion in foreign currency denominated bonds, lack of prudent budgetary discipline, leading to inflation of 50% led to his failure to win a second term. A $57 billion bailout from the IMF which is highly unpopular in Latin America failed to stem the drop in the pesos value from 10 pesos to the dollar when Macri assumed office to 60 pesos by the time of the election. A drought in 2018 reduced exports of soyabeans, and a third of currency reserves about $20 billion were used by the central bank to defend the peso. The socialist administration returns to power under the leadership of Mr. Fernandez, a former the chief of staff of president Nestor Kirchner, Kirchner and Fernandez inherited a similar crisis resulting in deep depression in 2003. Mr. Fernandez left the administration after Nestor Kirchner's death in 2010 and Christina Kirchner headed the Peronist party till 2015 winning 2 terms in office as president. Higher social spending under the Peronist party and high commodity prices for soyabeans exports with demand from China helped restore the economy under the Kirchner administrations, later leading to higher budget deficits by 2015 that Mr. Macri inherited. A failure to adjust spending early followed by severe austerity cuts in fuel and electricity prices hurt the urban poor and people in rural areas leading to the return of the socialist party and the lost hope for Cambiemos (Lets Change) to free markets that Macri had generated in 2015. ...

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Idea that control over Straits of Hormuz is US goal is repudiated by DJT in his Address to the Nation, yet it finds its way into the media. There is no war for US to win, it is only about removing a nuclear and ballistic missile threat, nothing to do with oil. MAGA base, US public has rejected these wars in remote countries of the Middle East, when reindustrialization is the goal, not repeating the mistakes of Bush and Obama who by fighting these wars for 8 years in Iraq wasted resources and pursued policies that deindustrialized the Nation and weakened the heartland of America. Beyond limiting the threat of nuclear weapons and long range ballistic missiles that could hit US, Europe and other nations there is no other goal. US and DJT repeatedly pointed out that being self sufficient it does not need Iranian or Iraqi or Saudi oil. The president even said in his Address that the US wanted to supply other countries with oil as it produced more than Saudi and Russia combined, and not counting Venezuelan oil production ramp up expected by 3-4 million barrels a day. Behind this is the known fact that China and Japan get 90% of their imports from Hormuz Straits, so it is up to these nations and India and Britain to find solutions to Hormuz not the US. ...

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$2000 rebate to all Americans to help meet cost of living concerns is put forward by the US president. This would put the tariffs revenue to good use to achieve the goal of bringing back manufacturing and supply chains to the US using tariff policy. This is to counter other nations use of subsidies and other ways to put American manufacturers out of business in industry after industry for 30 years by pricing way below US producers. The rebate would offset the domestic effects on US consumers of products imported with tariffs, which are priced somewhat  higher because of the tariff even though most of the tariff is borne by exporters. The end result is the goal of bringing the product manufacturing for these products back to America, where manufacturing was shipped overseas through the shortsighted behavior of American producers since 1990, mostly to China. The WSJ takes no responsibility for this behavior of American corporations, and does not see this complete dependence of the US on overseas supply chains as a threat to America being able to conduct and independent policy for the Nation based on its own interests. For 30 years the WSJ and American economics profession has adopted the view that it does not matter if product after product is made in another country, or in only one other country as is the case with China as the sole manufacturing superpower in 2025. Who made China the manufacturing super power? Who ignored warnings of concentration of manufacturing in one place? It is these same economists and media such as the WSJ that have through their willingness to ignore these concerns even when it comes to advanced technologies that has made China the superpower in manufacturing it is in 2025. DJT and most of America is fighting a battle to bring these supply chains back to America knowing this is best for America and the American people. It is owing to this new spirit that once mighty industrial towns that had fallen to new lows are making a resurgence in the US- an example is in today's Washington Post report by Irina Ivanova with the title- An Old Manufacturing City sputters back to life, Nov. 11 2025. ...

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Cecilia Wang of Taiwanese parents with student visas in the 1970's calls it an 128 year American tradition, but is it really the case that it was one individual case for Chinese immigrant Wang Kim in 1998 case before the US Supreme Court where it made sense for the Court to let Wang Kim stay, just as it makes sense for someone in the country for over 10 years to stay in Britain. Birthright citizenship is something else entirely and history shows that forget birthright citizenship for Asians- for most of the 19th century and over half of the twentieth century till the 1960's American public and Congress opposed any form of immigration from Asia. It was only under John F. Kennedy who was Irish, had served in the Pacific in Asia, that the idea of giving Asians citizenship was given credibility and acceptance with the American public and in the US Congress.  Without JFK and LBJ this opening for Asian immigrants coming legally in large numbers for education would never have happened, not under Nixon-Ford-Reagan-Bush. And the modernization of Asia, of Japan, China, now India could not have happened without knowledge of new technologies in American universities gathered by these visitors who were also allowed to work and stay legally. For this reason common sense is a more valuable way to approach this. Misuse and misrepresentation would only create the feeling that Asian Americans- who have integrated into the fabric of America and whose sons and daughters have benefitted the most from the gracious invitation of JFK and LBJ- who are mostly highly educated and can draw on the best economic opportunities the Nation has to offer, want to see their own interests only, and not the Nation as a whole as it struggles to bring a improvement in the lives of the have-nots in today's society, the less educated, the low income workers often immigrants from Latin American countries, those struggling to make ends meet in this economy. ...

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China's total public debt was 95% of GDP in 2022, Japan's was 62% in 1991. It's population aging faster than Japan's with population declining in 2022, Japan's declining in 2008 twenty years after its bubble burst. China's per capita income at $12,850 in 2022, compared to Japan's at $29,000 in 1991. China is facing more difficult headwinds than Japan in many ways. There is also higher tension in trade relations with US and EU limiting export growth. There is also the policy stance of the Communist Party that sees rural areas left behind with about 35% people in rural areas and Xi is slowing growth to reduce disparities and housing construction led speculative growth. In Japan urbanization was 77% in 1991, compared to 65% in China today. 

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With surplus talent, lower longevity rates and a small industrial base economy China could work for decades with a 1950's policy of men's retirement age set at 60 years and women at 50 years. This is changing as society ages rapidly, people living longer and a large industrial base economy.