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Iran's oil minister says Iran will return to its pre-sanctions production of 4 million barrels a day with the easing of sanctions, from its current level of 2.7 million barrels a day. OPEC keeps production at 30 million barrels a day for the group at its meeting in Vienna in December 2013.

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Did you know that SUV's are the second largest source of emissions after Power. We hear a lot about aviation which is much smaller but little about SUV's in the impact on climate change. SUV's make up about 40% of cars in Britain, and higher in the U.S. at 43%, 40% worldwide an astounding sixfold increase from 32 million to 200 million since 2010. People may even be driving an SUV and talking a lot about climate change.

Any savings from electric cars expected to grow from 2 million to 20 million by 2030  will be offset by more SUV's on the road. This is the view of the International Energy Agency in its recent report. Again all the talk about electric cars as a way to address climate change misses what is really happening in automobiles. Even in China the SUV's make up 42% of sales, and in India 30%. It is more profitable to make SUV's and they are harder to electrify adding 25% to energy consumed compared to cars. 

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India's broadband prices have dropped to the point where they are the lowest in the world. A UK comparison site shows 1 gigabyte of mobile data  costs $0.26 in India compare to $12.37 in the U.S. and $6.66 in the UK, and globally about $8.53.  Reliance Jio the company which dropped prices starting in 2016, says it is using voice and data on a spectrum known only for data use. Reliance Jio is using only one fifth of its capacity. and says is it is making more revenue per user than competitors. Competitors including Airtel and Vodafone have lowered prices reducing margins of as high as 30 percent to being barely profitable. Reliance Jio gives away its 4G feature phone JioPhone against refundable security deposit of $21, with plans of $1 a month. The handset supports Wifi and WhatsApp. India ha 1.17 mobile subscriptions, 55% in urban areas. Most broadband use now comes from Jio. Mobile data consumption has jumped in India in 2 years to more than 10GB per user per month, which is close to that in the U.S.    ...

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As Neil Irwin points out in the NYT the effects of the steel tariffs announced by president Trump are negligible on the U.S. economy- the impact of $30 billion in steel imports and $17 billion imports of aluminium on a $20 trillion economy. As Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross pointed out in a television interview it is the impact of a fraction of a penny on a food can, and tenths of one percent in the price of a new car.  What markets when settling down look at is the facts from how situations were handled from tariffs on solar panels to action on NAFTA. Twitter comments of Trump have not reflected actual policy as it was carried out as Neil Irwin points out. On tariffs for solar panels this has fitted in with action from preceding administrations says Irwin and also fits in with Trump administration policy to send a message when lower prices subsidized by foreign governments hurt U.S. producers. On NAFTA Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and other key economic advisers around Trump have acted along with the calls from prime minister Trudeau and contacts with Economics minister Videgaray of Mexico, to a policy of making some changes to NAFTA, very different from the calls for rejecting NAFTA made earlier by president Trump.   ...

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David Reilly points out that using the regulatory figures JP Morgan had exposure to Italy of $87.5 billion, to Spain of $57.5 billion, and an exposure of $390 billion for France, Germany and the Netherlands. This is as of Dec. 2011. This is higher than the netted figures given out by the bank. In his chairman's letter Dimon showed bank exposure to Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain of about $15 billion with potential loss in a bad situation of $3 billion. This is if portfolio hedges work. If for some reason they did not work as anticipated, the losses could be much higher.

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Increased funding for the Food and Drug Administration by the Obama administration. An additional $300 million as ben allocated. The budget request is for $2.35 billion for fiscal 2010, compared to $2.06 billion in the previous 2009 fiscal yar. Including user fees the budget request totals $3.04 billion for the 2010 fiscal year compared with $2.7 billion in the 2009 fiscal year. THe Obama administration proposes increased manufacturer user fees to pay for food-plant inspections and to speed the review of a[[lications for generic drugs and biologics drugs. Biologics drugs are derived from living organisms and are the industry's fastest growing part.

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Germany is building the new pipeline that connects the Wilhelmshaven LNG Terminal to its natural gas storage tank in record time in the midst of an energy crisis in Europe. The new 26 kilometer pipeline for  the LNG Terminal is being built in a few months when it would have otherwise taken 8 years. See Rani Bhandari, Managing Director of Open Grid Europe talk about the project in this video from DW.com to get a sense of how Germany is moving quickly to address natural gas needs for the winter. Click on Original article to see it.

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The European Union has adapted well to a cutoff of supplies of Russian gas. Alternative sources were quickly pulled together in a matter of months after the invasion and cutoff to tackle the winter of 2022-2023. Conservation was moved into high gear, renewable energy investment expanded, and alternative sources for gas established. Germany sought supplies of LNG from the US and Qatar and built gas terminal at Wilhelmshaven in record time of less than 6 months. Norway increased gas supplies to Europe and now provides one third of Europe's gas needs. German industry changed the way they used gas supplies to reduce usage and make it efficient.

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McCain's Plan announced in the debate with Obama moderated by Tom Brokaw was clarified further and looks more like the plan proposed by Hubbard in the WSJ. The government would step in and clear up the old mortgages and issue new 30 year mortgages at 5%. Taxpayer money would be involved, about $300 billion but the effect would be immediate relief to all homeowners, and the opportunity to stabilize home prices before a recession makes the situation worse with higher unemployment, more foreclosures. As much as 40% of all mortgages acccording to Deutsche Bank expected to go under water with home values dropping below the outstanding mortgages, and encouraging default in that situation. Lenders who made mistakes would get off without punitive price but even in the purchase of toxic assets by the government there is no certainty that private equity and other buyers of the assets from the government would not benefit. And the banks themselves could unload these assets at below their value to the Treasury because of asymmetric information, the lenders having a better idea than Treasury what these assets are really worth. And bad lending practices especially abusive ones can be prosecuted through investigation, the courts, and tough negotiations by the states and the government just as Jerry Brown obtained a settlement against Countrywide/Bank of America for $8 billion. And some of the people involved in the abusive practices and who benefited from them could have charges filed against them and end up serving time. The advantage of such a plan is that it would be decisive action and comprehensive action to see immediate effects of preventing whole neighborhoods being blighted across the nation, as most people underestimate the speed of this downturn from 6% to 16% home foreclosures from 2007 to 2008 and expected to hit as much as 40% of all mortgages in 2009 or 2010 absent any such action. Making what seems sensible letting lenders take the pain for their mistakes could then end up causing systemwide pain. When other ways of punitive action or shared pain or burden could be found especially prosecuting such behaviour and getting settlements through investigations and tough negotiations with the offending lenders. ...

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The German government's committee on the future of transport has proposals that call for fuel price hikes and electric vehicle quotas as Germany faces heavy European fines for not reducing transport emissions since 1990. This means the stretches of unlimited speed on the Autobahn roadways in Germany may now have speed limits. The proposals include limits of 80 mph on roadways and fuel tax rises from 2023, abolition of tax breaks for diesel cars, quotas for electric and hybrid cars that could get half of the emission cuts needed.

A series of diesel emissions cheating scandals have damaged confidence in diesel, and the lack of progress in climate change through less coal use has damaged confidence in Germany's climate change efforts. A new climate change law is planned.

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Tata has a couple of things going for it to make a car at a price under $2500- a different vision behind it and a longer term idea of the market and its opportunities for Tata Motors. This is a personal vision of Ratan Tata, the last in the series of Tata family members who have run a company that was at the leading edge of industrialization in India since British times in the closing years of the 19th century. He sees this as a way to bring a car that is affordable to millions of Indians, the average Indian, just as his father and great grand father were pioneers in India's early steps towards industrialization. This also will serve another purpose. It will provide momentum to India's manufacturing base by putting India's auto industry on its way to sell cars by the millions in the next ten years. The cost was a challenge to Indian engineers ingenuity. It would help them develop something from scratch from a clean slate, and as he hoped reinvent the car if possible. The cost also was doable in India because of the wages paid to Indian engineers and workers are different. The entire cost structure with suppliers like Bosch providing the engine also and internet purchases of parts coming under a completely different way of doing business, again a reinvent of things. And the skimping on a lot of basics like a radio is possible in the Indian context where the inital target market is the scooter family of which in India there are millions. People who would simply be waiting for such a bare bones car, not see it as such because it is a great advance over a scooter even in terms of safety. What most people who have never been to India would not be able to grasp is that a whole family of four can be seen riding on a scooter or motorbike in India on weekends in Indian urban areas. Tata's idea of the market potential is the way it can ride the next stages of increasing incomes in India. Once it has come up with this car it can come up with enhanced versions with an airconditioning and radio and so on, and still price it way below competitors with Tata's quality and brand name and innovative design. As long as Tata can sell all the cars it makes it can expand production rapidly. Tata's costs for engineering a top selling model may be only 20% of the $350 million it costs western companies, according to Alix Partners, with savings of $300 to $1000 per car right there. Labor costs are about $1.20 per hour in India, less than what auto workers make in China, this provides more cost savings. Tata plans to supply kits to dealers who will do the final assembly in small workshops. This distribution strategy will save Tata another chunk of costs, as about 20% of the car's cost is in distribution in the USA. ...

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India China Border and rail connection $40 billion project Chengdu to Lhasa 2025. The infrastructure brings China greater access to the western region of China some of it from the occupation of Tibet in the 1950's that now makes up territory the size of 80% of the contiguous US. India is rapidly modernizing it's side of the border with tunnels and bridges.  This situation is new. For most of history from 1000 to 1950's China had only a remote connection with the Tibetan and Indian border regions where nomadic tribes and Tibetans lived. Very few Chinese numbering by the hundreds or a few thousands may have visited the region as even under the British contacts were very limited with Tibet and border regions in the Himalayas. For China it is far from its major population centers in Beijing and Shanghai and Hong Kong, Shenzen. And it provides few advantages in spreading over a vast region that is remote and in high over 15,000 feet in the Tibetan and border regions. It is only the invasion of Korea and China by Japan in the close of the nineteenth and early part of the 20th century that has created the idea of having buffer regions that protect it from foreign powers. And this is what may happen over the next 50 years as the region goes back to what it was before the 1950's, but with modernization, as India does not seek to reach out beyond Himalayan borders into regions closer to China. ...

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Facebook's net income reached $1.56 billion in the fourth quarter of 2015, a jump from the $701 million reported for the prior year quarter. Mobile ad revenue made up 80% of Facebook's ad revenue. In 2014 the figure was 20%.

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The impact of the global financial downturn of 2011 on business in India's IT sector. With 80% of the sales of India's tech companies coming from markets in Europe and the U.S. firms such as Infosys are taking a cautious approach.

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Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, expert on debt crises, and author of "This Time is Different," says China is one of the best examples of the idea that this time is different, with the idea created that somehow China was impervious to the massive build up of debt. The debt is now over 250% of GDP, and this was possible for so long because of the high savings rate of 30% of disposable income and the millions of young migrants moving to cities to work in manufacturing. The growth of shadow banking, opaqueness in decisionmaking, unreliable data, use of local government financing vehicles, the bubble in housing with a large portion of loans tied to the real estate market, all combine to create serious problems that will take a long time to sort out. Rogoff says the crisis in Tianjin with the deadly explosions in the port area, and the government's inability to provide answers to questions from a alarmed public, only added to the uncertainty and loss of credibility. Rogoff says he hopes the trillions of dollars in reserves will provide China with the tools adequate to tackle the debt problems before they spread to other countries....

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President Obama's speech announcing the details of his executive order on immigration on Nov. 20, 2014, starts by saying he is not bypassing Congress or the Republicans. He says Republicans had the opportunity to pass legislation in the House that passed the Senate, or come up with their own bill. And still have an opportunity to come up with a bill he could sign into law that address the shortcomings of the current immigration system. In selling the bill to Americans he points out that this is not an amnesty, that the current system which allows immigrants here to stay illegally without paying taxes or any accountability is an amnesty. He points to deportation of millions as not an option, an out of the character of America. That deportation of criminals will continue and is up 80% in his administration, without mentioning that deportation under his administration for ordinary undocumented immigrants without any criminal record had reached a high of 400,000 a year under his administration, higher than under the Republican Bush administration. In fact it had reached such levels that Hispanic groups stated they would sit out the midterm 2014 elections and not vote for Democrats or Republicans, after providing a significant part of the winning margin for Obama in the 2012 presidential election. President Obama says he has the legal authority to prevent deportation, and that this is essentially what this executive order does- providing a temporary right to stay and work in this country to undocumented immigrants here living in the shadows who are here for more than 5 years, not a permanent status or citizenship. He cites other presidential decisions of the last 50 years, Republican and Democratic, that have integrated large groups of undocumented immigrants, including an executive order by President Reagan. And he refers to the Bush presidencies 41 and 43, where both father and son, considered Hispanic Americans "a part of American life," as good hard-working people deserving a chance to be Americans. The speech ends with an appeal to the compassion of Americans urging them to look at their own individual stories going back one, two or several generations, or Ellis Island where the early waves of European immigrants entered the country in the 19th century, and to immigrants from the period after the early British settlements in the 18th century. This is typical Obama, as much as the calculated decision to pursue a aggressive deportation policy was for the first 6 years of his administration, including the decision for "Dreamers" or young people before the 2012 election. "Scripture tells us, we shall not oppress a stranger, for we know the heart of a stranger. we were strangers once, too. And whether our forbears were strangers who crossed the Atlantic, or the Pacific, or the Rio Grande, we are here because this country welcomed them in." Over 2 million deportations in one of the most aggressive deportation policies of any administration, followed by an effort to stop deportations before the next presidential election, when the NYT had called his deportation policy "infuriating." ...

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The new price of the Leaf is $35,200 for the 2012 model year as more features were made standard by Nissan. The Leaf will now cost $27,700 after a $7,500 federal tax credit in the U.S. The higher price also reflects the stronger yen as the Leaf is made in Japan. Every Leaf is sold from a waiting list, with sales in only some states- including Arizona, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas and Washington. Nissan's marketing chief, Brian Carolin, says about 1000 vehicles a month will be sold for the remainder of 2011. The average customer of the Leaf drives the car with an all electric range of 75 miles, for 30 miles each day and charges it for 3 hours a day. Average household income is $140,000. The 2012 standard model comes with a cold weather package, heated seats, battery warmer and steering wheel, and a fast charging arrangement that gets it recharged in 30 minutes, instead of the 8 hours.

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Coorruption allegations for oil contracts in Algeria and other problems with prosecutors in Italy, are affecting the results of Saipem, an oil services provider in which Eni has 43% stake but lacks operational control. Saipem shares have fallen 50%, with second quarter net loss of $910 million, and expected net loss of $390 million for 2013. Eni shares are down 10%, with the Italy FTSE Mib Index showing no change.

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Ukraine was one of the poorest countries in the European Union in the last decade and was not growing as fast as other countries in Eastern Europe. One of the reasons it was looking to the west, the EU and the US, was to increase growth and boost incomes. A policy opposed by Russia.  This report in WSJ looks at the effort of a 41 year old economist Mr. Marchenko who heads the central bank. Ukraine's revenues only support 40% of government spending. Ukraine needs $3 billion in aid every month. The currency is down 20% in value and the GDP is expected to be 30% lower in 2022. He says every day and night it is a constant headache. The US and Britain were quick to help and provide steady aid. The EU and Germany with internal wrangling have not come up with $8 billion of the $9 billion in aid promised to Ukraine to rebuild the infrastructure that is being destroyed by Russia, and support the war effort to defend Ukraine. Even with $3 billion a month in aid Ukraine depends on printing money and risking further decline in the currency to pay soldiers, war needs, and meet basic spending needs. The plans are not just for 2022 but extend into 2023. Grain a key export is only now making its way out of Odessa with the UN and Turkey arranging the way out for grain ships. ...

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How a deficiency in trust is affecting the US effort to vaccinate its whole population in 2021. The US government took steps early to build vaccine supplies, and was one of the first countries with the UK to begin its vaccination drive. Then after 6 months something went wrong. The deficiency in trust led to about 80 million people many of them young, to avoid getting vaccinated. US president Biden said the country was losing patience with these people. He setup a vaccine mandate and required all employees in private sector in companies with more than 100 employees to get vaccinated. This applied to about two thirds of American workers. All federal government workers were also required to get vaccinated. Yet even after the vaccine mandate the number of vaccinations has not exceeded 900,000 a day. By contrast India was doing 20 million a day. By September 2021 the US had fallen behind all nations in the G-7 in percentage of people vaccinated with one or two doses, behind Italy, France, UK, Germany, Japan, Canada. Trust was also needed, not just vaccine supplies to make a vaccination drive effective. By September the US passed the 675,000 deaths that happened in 1918 pandemic. The deficiency in trust leads one expert to call it breakthrough without followthrough. Other experts see the entrenched social forces that had diminished American health and life expectancy since the 1970's also affecting the vaccination drive. ...

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The director of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy says he worries about the effect of automation on work performed by garment workers in countries such as Bangladesh. As machines become adept at performing the difficult tasks performed by humans, automation is spreading in places like Bangladesh. This report shows the Mohammadi Group which makes sweaters for H&M, Zara and other brands replacing 500 workers in its Bangladesh factory with 173 German machines. As wages grow in countries that made garment products such as Bangladesh, India, China and Cambodia are affected. A 2016 International Labor Organization Study predicts some Asian countries could lose as much as 80% of the apparel, textile jobs as automation spreads. This presents a huge problem for these countries as creating high skilled jobs is a challenge in these Asian countries. In Bangladesh where 2 million new jobs are needed each year to keep pace with increasing labor force, the 300,000 new textile industry jobs a year for 2003-2010 have shrunk now to about 60,000 a year, according to World Bank data.  The garment industry in Bangladesh provides 80% of the exports and 3 million  manufacturing jobs, reducing significantly the number of people below the poverty line. After a fire at a garment factory in Bangladesh the government set a monthly minimum wage of $64, an increase of 77%, with automatic annual raises. Factory owners moved to suburbs and used more machines to deal with labor unrest. Some garment workers became rickshaw drivers, a scooter type taxi in India. The Bangladeshi garment industry is continuing to be cost competitive by reducing costs through automation, increasing exports by 19.5% from 2013 to mid 2016, increasing jobs by 4.5% during this period, according to the local industry association figures.   ...

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More proof that China's real estate prices resemble the period of the bubble in real estate prices in Tokyo in the late 1980's. One parking space goes for $760,000 in Hong Kong in a luxury development.

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The portion of Treasury debt maturing in less than ayear has risen to 40%. In the fisscal year ending Sept 30 the Treasury held an auction on average more than once a day to finance nearly $7 trillion of new and maturing debt. A banking crisis is turning into a long term debt crisis.

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The U.S. trade agreement with Mexico is for 16 years, to provide business with a stable rules environment to operate in. It includes a clause for review after 6 years. The content made in the U.S. is increased to 70% from 62.5%. This has to be made by workers earning at least $16  an hour. Aluminium and steel going into the cars has to come from the U.S. helping push U.S. steel plant capacity utilization to 80%. Labor collective bargaining is strengthened in Mexico through new provisions, a provision supported by new Mexican socialist president Obrador. Free trade in agricultural products is maintained. $4.7 billion was added in help to U.S. farmers as aid for the effects of China's tariff retaliation. New rules are set for textiles, chemicals, and steel intensive products that set requirements to qualify for tariff free import into the U.S. This is intended to help bring more jobs and investment in these industries in the U.S.     ...

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Simon Denyer's interview with Vinod Rai, the Comptroller and Auditor General of India. Rai has persisted in uncovering corruption in India. He was appointed by prime minister Manmohan Singh from India's Finance ministry five years ago, and runs an organization with 63,000 employees with accountants in all Indian states. Reports by his agency have uncovered giving away of natural resources and telecom licenses worth billions of dollars. He describes the amounts involved as huge and attributes the increase in accountability of politicians and ministers to active citizens groups. The Indian media and Supreme Court have supported efforts to increase accountability. The CAG has constitutional protection. Rai sees the CAG's role as examining government spending to uncover irregularities and make it accountable to parliament. India is rare in this respect compared to China, Russia and other emerging market countries because of its vibrant media and democracy. A 2010 report uncovered corruption in giving away mobile phone network licenses and a 2012 report uncovered allocation of coal land without a competitive auction, with loss in government revenues estimated at $30 billion. The reports showed prime minister Singh aware of the irregularities but unable or unwilling to call for transparency and proper process. Rai's six year term expires in May 2013. ...