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Trump is getting the support of oil billionaires and oil and gas backers as he decides to ignore climate change completely in favor of "Drill, Baby Drill." Costs of not doing anything for climate change action would accumulate in the absence of action and it could cost the US upwards of 1 trillion dollars in 2028 to fix what was breaking and was ignored for 4 years.

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School enrollment in New York city for public schools has dropped from 1 million to 900,000 in 2024. Some families in NYC moved to South Carolina, and US birthrates are dropping. The migrant children fill this gap in city schools. Teachers have been adept at integrating children of different backgrounds. This is another side of the migration issue even as Biden has closed the border with Mexico for unlawful migration.

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US president Biden's State of the Union speech on Tuesday Feb. 7 is much awaited as he prepares for the 2024 election. Much of the major legislation including the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips and Science Act had bipartisan support. America is back and building better, and Biden hopes to continue his efforts in this direction, even as he faces a divided US Congress. Biden will also want to show the vigorous style of his leadership as America recovers its position in manufacturing, research and development, improves the lives of working families and tackles inflation.

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High levels of covid and RSV in the US are leading to health authorites saying wearing masks is needed to prevent it from spreading. Los Angles is likely to introduce a mask requirement for indoors by the end of December 2022. Carrying hand sanitizer and keeping wipes with you is a good idea because RSV spreads through touching infected surfaces. Vaccination for flu and covid is also a key prevention action. As most people are no longer wearing masks in the US the practice of wearing masks is becoming a good idea once again.

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The economy slows and China's central banks cuts two interest rates. No major stimulus is planned as in Europe and the US after record debt levels that have accumulated over the last decade of hyper growth. Youth unemployment reaches 19%. The drop in demand for oil from China with the slowdown leads to a drop in the price of oil to about $93 for Brent Crude in August 2022, providing some relief for oil price to the EU and US. China is the largest importer of oil and it takes in 15% of the world's oil supply.

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Greg Ip looks at the Chinese economy its strengths and and many weaknesses including debt and declining foreign investment in 2023, as president Xi visits the US this coming week. With a slowing economy, high youth unemployment and excessive debt, China remains a resilient economy because it has strengths in manufacturing. It would take the US the next decade to build up its manufacturing capabilities after neglecting this important field with mistaken policies for three decades under presidents Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Obama and Trump. President Biden is taking steps for this new manufacturing revival to take place.

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Patrick Chovanec of Tsinghua University, says the loan target for 2011, though smaller than 2010, will still be over one and a half times the money lent in 2008. Stephen Green, head of research for Standard Chartered, says if anyone is printing money, it appears to be China's central bank, not the US. During a meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing goals are being set for the next 12 months. One expert predicts the governmet may set official targets of 4% inflation (it is running at about 4.7% at this time) and 6.5 trillion yuan of lending in new loans in 2011, compared to 7.5 trillion in 2010. Questions remain whether China can manage a soft landing after the huge surge in lending and the continued asset bubble.

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One Big Beautiful Act passed in US Senate with Vance casting tie breaking vote. It renews the tax cuts from DJT's first term in office in 2017 and provides tax cuts to seniors, middle class, and small business. It provides 100% expensing for business to increase investment. Mothers get child care credit that is doubled, senior citizens over 65 years get a $6000 deduction. The seniors deduction means 88% of seniors will now pay no taxes on social security benefits from 64%. Medicaid changes so that able bodied Americans will have to put in 80 hours of work to qualify.  Note that the Medicaid program was becoming unworkable and unsustainable- starting with the idea of helping people unable to work and transitioning those who could work, it jumped to $228 billion cost in 2000 from $28 billion in 1980, ten times over 20 years. Going up to $918 billion in 2024, 4 times the 2000 level. Medicaid is now 62% of what Social Security costs, $918 billion compared to $1480 billion for Social Security. ...

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We give here what is left out in the review of US China relations in the NYT. In 2012 the Bo Xilai incident highlighted the dangers of China veering off its path of development in new directions with demagogic leaders.  The effects of hypergrowth in creating excessive debt, regional inequality and corruption, waste of capital allocation in China, and in the US alienating communities that lost factories to China and major parts of its manufacturing base. Misgivings about this path were becoming more pronounced in the minds of China's new leadership under Xi Jinping. None of this is mentioned by Chris Buckley in his review of US China relations.

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The European Union’s total defense spending increased by 30% from 2021 to 2024, to 326 billion euro or $341 billion. That is 1.9% of the EU’s GDP it's economic output, according to European Defense Agency. It is still short of 2%.  Britain will ramp up defense spending all the way up to 3% in 2027. Britain is short of defense equipment with transfers to Ukraine and with much of the defense budget going to maintain a nuclear deterrent. This leaves less for other defense needs. This report says most of the procurement for defense equipment goes to countries outside Europe.The Kiel Institute says 80% comes from outside EU. It is not mere shortage of funds it is the severe bottleneck from lack of defense manufacturing industry  that is putting Germany, France and UK in a situation where they are too dependent on the US. It takes years to build this capacity. Russia built it up during 3 years of war by going to a wartime economy and it now produces 4 times the ammunition Europe produces. The US did the same to match and exceed Russian capabilities and capacity, Europe lagged behind with unwillingness of Macron and of Scholz in particular to switch funds from needs in transport, infrastructure to defense. The debt brake Merkel to stop debt based infrastructure investment is what ails Germany. It has had two pernicious effects it created the AfD's surge by lowering economic growth and investment in public needs - housing, transport, public services. It worsened the SPD and CDU performance by not investing in security with no policies to return crime committing refugees to their home countries. A combination of aid and other assistance, diplomacy, secured the cooperation of countries to take them back. A strong display of action on removing refugees committing any offenses would have lessened the number of terrorism incidents. ...

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The Ethics Commission appointed by Chancellor Merkel following the nuclear disaster in Japan has recommended that the German government close all of its nuclear plants by 2021. Merkel said that Germany will end its dependence on nuclear energy and use nuclear as a bridge technology till other sorces are developed. Germany gets 22.6% of its electricity from nuclear energy, according to the Energy Ministry. It has 17 reactors, six of the boiling water type, a design used at Fukushima, and 11 using pressurized water. A former Environment minister, Klaus Topfer, heads the panel, with the other 22 panel members draw from the energy industry and nongovernmental organizations. While recommending closing the plants "to eliminate risks," the panel said it would also boost the German economy. It said "a withdrawal from nuclear power will spur growth, offer enormous technical, economic and social opportunities to position Germany even further as an exporter of sustainable products and services." Germany has already moved ahead in developing wind and solar energy sources, and is developing leading edge technologies and capabilities in the area of environment friendly alternative energies. Wind and solar energy and renewable sources already meet 16.5% of Germany's needs. Italy and Switzerland said they would not develop new reactors after the Fukushima nuclear reactor meltdown. Only Germany with its strong environmental consciousness across all parties is making a decisive break with nuclear energy. ...

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523 European banks borrowed 489 billion euros from the European Central Bank on Dec. 21, 2011, under the newly created Long Term Financing Operation of the ECB. This is designed to meet the financing needs of European banks which are shutoff from normal financing of selling unsecured bonds to private investors because of market anxiety. Much of this is for replacing other outstanding ECB loans, with analysts estimating about 190 billion euros of new liquidity being injected into the banking system. This also has the effect of reducing the borrowing rates for government bonds. In Spain the government sold 5.6 billion euros of government bonds at an auction on Dec. 20, 2011, with the interest rates dropping from 5.7% a month earlier to 1.7%. Small and midsize banks in Spain helped surging demand by buying the bonds to use as collateral for three year loans from the ECB at 1%.

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The vast Permian Shale Basin is becoming more of a factory with disciplined large producers in 2024. More than one third of the production is from three producers Diamondback Energy, Exxon Mobil and Occidental compared to 30 mostly wildcatter companies in 2014. These companies are not likely to increase production in the way smaller companies did over the last decade when they increased production by over 10%. 

Over the period from now 2024 to 2030 production increases will be limited by geologic limits, older shale fields. Most onshore basins outside of Permian in the US are actually declining in production and production there is at about 4 million barrels a day.

Total production is about 13 million barrels of oil a day under president Biden and will only reach 13.5 million barrels a day by 2030. Employment 200,000 at the peak in 2014 is now a little over 100,000.

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Estimates by the Congresssional Budget Office in January 2011 show the federal budget deficit in the US at nearly $1.5 trillion in 2011. The deficit would equal 9.8% of the US gross domestic product. In 2009 the budget deficit was $1.4 trillion or 10% of GDP. The CBO estimates show the debt held by the public increasing from 40% of GDP at the end of fiscal year 2008 to about 70% at the end of fiscal year 2011. Republican senators Orrin Hatch of Utah and John Cornyn of Texas called for a constitutional balanced budget amendment in an op-ed published in Politico.

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One needs to look at India -US relations over the long span 1900-2025  looking only at the long haul. In taking a look at the relationship in this way Gandhi's letter to FDR during the Quit India Movement from Wardha July 1 1941, and FDR's reply (with Churchill and FDR fighting Japan in 1941) ranks as memorable and long lasting, far likely to prevail as an idea that holds the imagination of it's peoples than the pulls and shifts of different administrations. Even in the  depth of the war against the Nazis in Europe, and the Imperial Japanese Army rampaging through China, Gandhi felt comfortable looking to America as a friend. Churchill was the antagonist at the time unwilling to let the British Empire fade, and FDR was a friend through the Second World War. Gandhi opens his letter to FDR saying "Dear Friend. I twice missed coming to your great country... I have profited greatly from the writings of Thoreau and Emerson..." And FDR writing back "I shall hope that our common interest in democracy and righteousness will enable your countrymen and mine to make common cause..." For India the powerful words of Cordell Hull his Secretary of State, were offered by FDR with unmistakable goals of freedom and democratic process for India. Eisenhower and Dulles support for Pakistan in the 1950's into 1970's, a period of China and India in the 1970's and 1990's shifting away from old economic arrangements, till India US under Biden 2020 where India as with FDR  was "the closest in the world" to the US, following China's shift to Communist rule and now competition with the US. Taking this long perspective India and the relationship with America will be determined by the 1.8 billion people of the two countries (with Indonesia 2.1 billion people), and the potential for this is vast and only growing by the year. There is a natural affinity and feeling that is only now coming into its own because of a shared responsibility, and a shared understanding, as parts of the former British Empire, separated in 1783 and 1947. And the mutual desire to build the modern world on the terms left by advances of science and technology combined with the ancient civilization of the Bible, Buddhism and the Upanishads. In this sense modern India is made with America and does not exist separate from America, and modern America forward is made with India and does not exist separate from India. ...

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The Modi administration's plans for clean solar energy and renewable energy production to reach 220 gigawatts by 2022, nearly doubling the capacity in 2 years from 135 gigawatts today. The message was conveyed at the inaugural address for the recent World Solar Technology Summit by the prime minister. The premier said that ISA is part of the "One World, One Sun, One Grid" project, which would be transformational for humanity.

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This report in The Guardian explains what a split Congress means in the US as the Republicans control the House and Democrats control the Senate in the midterms of 2022. This means legislative logjam says The Guardian.  The narrow majority also means there will be difficulty for the Republican Speaker to control the House with 3 newcomers from New York and others as moderates, and a mix of views within Republicans.

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Most people have not heard of Stellantis N.V. First there was Chrysler, then Fiat merged with Chrysler, now Fiat Chrysler merges with Citroen and Peugeot of France. The result is Stellantis N.V. with CEO Carlo Tavares. This group plans an investment of $35.5 billion in electric vehicles through 2025 and have 5 battery plants built in US and Europe. Tougher emissions standards worldwide are pushing car makers to make these investments in electrification of cars.

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Typhoon winds that exacerbated the floods in Beijing, China, are shown here in a BBC report. Recent floods in China and fires in Maui, Hawaii, show effects of climate change on opposite sides of the planet in August 2023. This is one more reason for the US and China to work with other countries in limiting the effects of climate change and focus on the important issues that require cooperation and mutual effort.

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With higher mortgage rates at 7% from 4% during the pandemic sellers and buyers are not moving forward. There is a sharp drop in US homes for sale by 14% in June over 2022, to 1.1 million homes, according to NAR. Home builders are building new homes to meet demand. Sellers often prefer to rent out existing homes and rent in their new location. Buyers preferring to rent with limited supply to choose from.

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Investment in the US in clean energy technologies reached $213 billion in the last 12 months through July 2023 after the climate law was passed by president Biden. The prior year it was $151 billion and the year before that $81 billion. Investment is growing fastest in electric car batteries, EV's, and in solar panels, slower in wind energy. This shows the Biden plan is working and will accelerate in the coming year.

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China imports from the US only $143 billion and much of this is soyabeans (US farmers), petroleum oil products (buyers in Europe and Asia), aircraft (Boeing). Farmers were compensated from the tariff revenues in the first term, oil products would be shipped to Asia and LNG to Europe to make up for loss of supplies from Russia. India will take up the Boeing production as it's economy expands to levels China, Japan had earlier. The action is a last resort as 490,000 lives were lost in 12 years from the fentanyl shipped raw materials from China and drug trafficking gangs in Mexico processing it in labs to ship across the long US border or Canadian border into the US. China and Mexico have not stopped the flow of fentanyl into the US. How much is 490,000 American lives worth? That is 5 times the lives lost in the Vietnam War and the Korean War combined of 100,000 lives lost in both wars. China exported $436 billion to the US in 2023 increasing by about 6% from prior year. Integrated Circuits alone were more than all US exports combined to China at $154 billion. Electric batteries another $80 billion. Computers and office machine parts were $54 billion. Where will China ship all these products. It is brave but it is easier to stop fentanyl flows out of China, and cut all the trade barriers, reverse state policy to dominate key industrial sectors in State Planning. The problem in the stock market response is that this is a trade war which it is NOT. It is about National Security if this is allowed to continue as Clinton, Bush, Obama have allowed to happen US is in real danger of becoming a second rate power in the world, at which point the world will become a dangerous place with India, China, Russia, Germany and other states having no constraints to create future wars without US to set some basic principles of world peace. UN itself would not exist without Cordell Hull and FDR. The world we know will be GONE. US Navy will not be able to build the ships it needs in USA if this deindustrialization is allowed to continue.    ...

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Failing states pose immigration issues in the US at the border with Mexico. With a collapsing economy there are 7.1 million refugees from Venezuela. Many have settled in Latin America. Others hundreds of thousands want to cross illegally into the US. As the US has no diplomatic relations with the US making harder to deport them. When Ukraine war started Ukrainians were kept from crossing from Mexico by setting up a legal path for them to come. 78000 Cubans, Haitians and Nicaraguans were crossing in December 2022, this dropped to hundreds by July by setting up a legal path for these people to get a work permit for 2 years legally. Venezuela will require a similar innovative solution at the border.

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The Affordable Care Act subsidies are basically a band aid approach to a fundamentally broken health care system in the US, says Washington Post Editorial Board on Nov. 1, 2025. The 22 million ACA subsidies will cost $350 billion over 10 years. Democrats have the government shutdown over this issue of extending Obama ACA subsidies where enrolment increased in the covid and Biden years with generous subsidies. The Washington Post looks at how we got here since 1945, decisions made about employer insurance plans that created a patchwork of plans from private sector and other plans outside it with perverse incentives and inefficient subsidies. It calls the system stupid, and politicians looking to the next 2 year midterm elections wary of addressing the whole problem in the proper way for a system that will benefit all the people of the US.

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US Senator Lisa Murkowski gets $25 billion for rural hospitals and assistance for Alaska in One Big Beautiful Act 2025. She was the 50th vote for the Tax Cuts Bill in the US Senate, without her vote the bill would not pass. Senator John Thune worked hard to get her on board. At about 1.30 am in the wee hours she agreed to support it only after getting $25 billion for rural hospitals and special allocations for Alaska healthcare needs, and other benefits for Alaskans including $25 billion for the Coast Guard. Places are spread far out in Alaska and patients have to be flown in to Anchorage for care. Alaska is a different place for health care including needs of native tribes. Lisa Murkowski is a rare senator with a passion to serve Alaska, and her concerns for disadvantaged people.