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U.S. Fed chairwoman Yellen moves cautiously to raise rates in December 2015. The Fed raises the benchmark federal funds rate-its overnight lending rate- from near zero to between 0.25% and 0.5%. Yellen emphasized her cautious approach by saying "we have very low rates and we have made a very small move." This follows seven years of near zero rates after the QE program for monetary easing under Ben Bernanke, the previous chairman, following the 2008 financial crisis. The Fed plans to raise rates gradually and slowly over 3 years. With oil prices falling below $35 the prospect that inflation may fall well below the 2% target could put off further plans to raise rates. Yellen said the Fed would "monitor inflation very carefully," and if it remained at unexpectedly low levels the Fed would reconsider its outlook and respond with "appropriate policy."

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China's ginni coefficient at 0.5, has changed from 0.3 several decades ago, according to Li Shi at Beijing Normal University. A level above 0.4 is considered socially destabilizing. 150 million migrant workers from rural areas are denied access to benefits such as health care, education and pensions which are provided to urban residents. Migrant incomes are also affected by rising food prices. Estimates of per capita income are $935 a year for rural areas, up 13% in 2010, and $2,965 in urban areas, up 10 % in 2010. An economist at the National Economic Research Institute in Beijing says the income gap is understated because the incomes of families in the higher end are understated.

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This editorial in the WSJ argues against Trade Representative Lighthizer's move to increase the percentage of North American content in a vehicle so that it creates more jobs. Currently Nafta rules require 62.5% of a duty free vehicle be made in North America. Lighthizer wants to lower the content coming from Asia or Europe. This is not favored by Canada and Mexico and it makes Mexico less competitive than it is now.

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Republicans held onto 4 of 6 seats in recall elections following Governor Walker's spending cuts and restrictions on the collective bargaining rights of public sector unions.

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Lower amounts for financial aid available offset the lower rise in tution costs to leave students just as worse off as before with large amount of student debt in 2013-2014.

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The CEO of the New York Times and the former director general of the BBC, takes a look at the public discourse in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and in the Brexit campaign, and finds some troubling changes. The use of words that can eaily be picked up by Twitter and social media to attack opponents, the complete disregard for facts, and outright attempts to denigrate and destroy using rhetorical tactics, and a section of the public that has turned away from the facts or is disinterested in facts, is deeply troubling for Mark Thompson. When the public discourse fails, then the politics as a whole starts to collapse, says Thompson. We are children of the enlightenment, says Thompson, and were taught to look underneath statements to discern the truth. This is a crisis in public discourse. Worse it is one in which truth telling by people who say they are outsiders and tell it like it is, is not about telling the truth. Which is what makes it so dangerous. Thompson cites the statement by Michael Gove that "people in this country have had enough of experts," as another dangerous sign. He says it is time that experts make themselves understandable and talk in a way the public can understand. The media needs to explain issues in clear ways, and professional policymakers language of discourse needs to be conveyed in better ways that the public can grasp, in which the Brexit Remain campaign failed, says Thompson. Its important to acknowledge the problem, as the health of our democracies depends on finding solutions to what has happened in 2015-2016 to change the public discourse and let it deteriorate to unimaginable levels.  ...

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China's National Bureau of Statistics made an announcement in Beiijing that 51.27% of the Chinese people now live in urban areas. In 1949 the figure was 10.6%, in 1979 it was 19%. In the space of three decades China has urbanized rapidly. This has brought with it economic growth, infrastructure development and increased employment in the manufacturing sector as new workers moved from rural areas to the cities. With it also come major problems for the country and the leaders of the Communist party led government. Of the 691 million urban residents, 253 million are migrant workers- 37% of urban residents and 19% of the population are in this grey zone described as the "hukou" or household registration system. Under "hukou" these migrants from rural areas cannot access public services in the cities, and have rights to access them in their own villages where they are registered. Integrating these migrant workers who are different than their more affluent and better educated neigbors in the cities so that they become truly a part of the urban areas will remain a huge challenge for China. One of the ways China is addressing this is with the plan to build 36 million units of affordable housing for these migrant workers by 2016. Ever so gradually Chinese officials are relaxing the restrictions on migrant workers- such as Shanghai Mayor Han Zheng's announcement for allowing all migrant workers to rent subsidized housing in the outer parts of Shanghai and committing to "increase the migrant population's involvement in the community affairs, cultural life and show genuine care for them." Food security is another issue as more development on prime agricultural land means less land available for agriculture. Appropriation of agricultural land for industrial use is bringing the country down to the limit of 120 million hectares of agricultural land needed for self sufficiency in food, according to the Land Ministry. At the same time China's leaders want to avoid what the World Bank calls "the middle income trap," where a country reaches a level of modernization and urbanization, and then stalls at that level- the level being around $3000 per capital GDP, which is China's GDP per capita today, according to the National Bureau of Statistics in China. Li Keqiang, who takes over from premier Wen Biao, sees the building of affordable housing for migrant workers as a critical way to continue the urbanization process, and shift the country from its export focus by increasing consumption and the development of industries that support this. A slowing economy dominated by state owned companies focussed on a decelerating export model and an aging but still growing population- NBS says China's overall population was up by 4.8% in 2011 over 2010 and has reached 1.35 billion- presents a tougher set of challenges to the new leadership in China than was faced by the current leadership....

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Porter cites a report by Kai Daniel Schmid and Ulrike Stein of the Macroeconomic Policy Institute in Dusseldorf. The report shows the top 10% of Germans having 26% of the country's income before taxes and transfers in 1991. This increased to 31% by 2010. For the same period of about 20 years the bottom half of the population took in 17% in 2010 dropping by 5% from 22%. The growing income inequality in Germany is comparable to what has happened in the U.S. over this period.

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This NYT editorial points to the dangers lurking behid the jobless numbers. The House bill that passed recently for $154 billion to extend unemployment benefits- set to expire in Feb 2010- to June 2010, and increases aid to local and state governments. It also includes infrastructure spending and help for small business. But it does not do enough for young people whose joblesness is at all time high. For instance only 4 in 100 low income black students found work in Fall 2009 This according to a study by the Northeastern University Center for Labor Market Studies. According to the analysis done by this Center the employment rates among teenagers has risen four times faster than the rate among adults since 2000, and todayme over 65 are more likely to find jobs than youth of 16-19 years.

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Krugman points out that the federal tax rate for the top 1% is 34% in 2013, according to the Congressional Budget Office, because president Obama let the high end Bush tax cuts to expire. It is the number to remember says Krugman- 34. In 2008 the figure was 28.2. Under Hillary Clinton the average tax rate for the top 1% would go up by 3.4 percentage points, according to the Tax Policy Center. Some of this would help pay for the tution plan to provide access to the middle class to public universities. Under populist Trump, Krugman points to the elimination of the inheritance tax and tax rates going down substantially, and no such programs to promote the upward mobility that everyone is talking about, and no way to pay for a big infrastructure building effort for growth and jobs- upward mobility that is the focus of every candidate's election campaign including Sanders, Trump in appealing to older white working class families, Clinton, Ryan, Bush, and others in both parties.   ...

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Fletcher cites statistics from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics showing that between December 2007 and June 2010, private sector employment in Texas went down by 0.6%. During that period public sector jobs increased by 6.4%. Government employees make up about 17% of the workforce in Texas. The Texas economy gets a large amount of federal money because of military installations and NASA- $227 billion in 2009, according to the Census Bureau. By comparison California received $346 billon in 2009. During the recession period after the global financial crisis of 2008, Texas received $25 billion in stimulus money. Richard Fisher of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank acknowleges the federal money going into Texas, yet he points out the driving force in the economy of Texas is still the private sector. For the private sector there are several advantages to being in Texas. There are lower taxes- no state income tax and lower business taxes. The large supply of land for development and few land-use restrictions make development easier. Corporate efficiency was a key advantage cited by Fluor when it moved from Orange County, California to Texas. A growing energy sector has helped, along with the growing trade with Mexico. The housing regulations in the state have acted as a check on housing prices, and left Texas with less of the detrimental effects of the housing mortgage crisis than the rest of the nation, especially California and Florida. The governor of Texas, Rick Perry, says he is not against all regulation, and the kind of housing regulation in Texas certainly has played a good role for Texas. Perry's tort reforms have reduced the legal burden on business prevalent in the rest of the U.S....

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A study of the economies of the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. by the Brookings Institution suggests that states in the South may be facing a harder time recovering from high unemployment than the northeast and midwestern states. Of the ten states with the highest unemployment six are in the West and the South, including Nevada, California, and S. Carolina. Unemployment in S. Carolina is 11.1%. A researcher at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, says the better performance of the South in earlier years was driven by development and in-migration. This has abruptly ended. A Brookings Fellow, Howard Wial, suggests the possibility of California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida being depressed for a long time, while states in the Great Lakes region see a rebound. States and regions that are dependent on education, healthcare and energy, are doing better than others. In Pennsylvania, the Pittsburgh region with its emphasis on education and healthcare is doing better than Philadelphia. In New York, Buffalo and Rochester in the upstate region are doing better than the New York City metropolitan area. Areas around Akron and Youngstown in the rustbelt part of Ohio are recovering better than Tucson and Colorado Springs....

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Krugman has some legitimate concerns. Noting that 600,000 jobs were lost in February, 2007, which would mean several million jobs lost, anywhere from 5 to 7 million jobs lost in 2009. In the face of this generating 3.5 million jobs by the end of 2010 as Obama plans to do, looks like not having done enough, and letting the worst effects of the downturn go on. And the lack of a plan to resolve the situation of failing banks, which are only drawing more of the government's capital, leaves continued weakness in credit markets and the economy that will hurt the unemployment picture through 2009. So in spite of all the rhetoric and good intentions, the lack of experience in dealing with a crisis of this magnitude, political deadlock, and an element of trial and error, learning and observing, as the President and his advisors deal with the evolving crisis, leaves the American economy exposed to many risks.

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The slowdown in China, the collapse of oil prices, and depreciation in emerging market currencies, suggest that low inflation in the U.S is likely to continue in 2016. This will make it harder for the U.S. Federal Reserve under Yellen to increase interest rates in 2016.