LyrArc Article Gist
Hillary Clinton narrowly loses the Michigan primary to Bernie Sanders in March 2016, as the Sanders campaign focusses on Clinton's support for trade agreements that hurt American workers and lead to loss of manufacturing jobs. About three fifths of voters in the Michigan primary considered this a major issue. Many less educated younger workers see their job prospects diminish and wages drop with free trade that hurts American manufacturing jobs. Bill Clinton signed the NAFTA agreement with Mexico, and as a member of the Obama administration Clinton supported the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement, later opposing TPP when she left the cabinet. Sentiment against trade that hurts manufacturing jobs in the U.S. is strongest in midwestern states such as Michigan, Ohio and Illinois. This was also a major issue benefitting the Liberals under Justin Trudeau who won in Canada's industrial Ontario province which has suffered hollowing out and loss of manufacturing jobs under the Conservative Harper administration. In the U.S. the issue goes back to the Clinton Administration for two decades. New jobs created by Apple, Google, and other tech companies pale in comparison with the industrial jobs created in another era that benefitted working class families. This issue and high unemployment or under employment, lower wages for working class families, was a major issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign. Widening wealth disparities, and lack of upward mobility, high tution and healthcare costs for ordinary families, dominated the campaign in the U.S....

LyrArc Article Gist
A vivid and amazing account of the the earthquake and tsunami that hit the city of Ishinomaki, Japan, 35 miles up the coast from Sendai. It tells the story of where different people were that day, and the hours of their lives before and after the tsunami. Hiroshi Kaneyama, is the mayor of Ishinomaki, who is in Sendai that day attending a symposium on commercialization of algae. He would drive up to a dark town filled with water, and no electricity, and find his way to a Red Cross hospital command center. Toshikatsu Kumagai, is a 34 year old newspaper reporter, who will find himself driving at 3.30 pm that day on a bridge over the Satagawa river, on the western side of Ishinomaki. He spots the first 19 foot wave and tries to make a run for it, racing towards a fence before he was swept away. He finds himself in a landscape that has become part of the ocean. He jumps on top of a plastic tub and is rescued by helicopter 18 hours later. Most of the students at Okawa Elementary School who lined up outside the school when the tsunami alarms sounded, were swept away. Taylor Anderson, is an American teacher who teaches English to Japanese students at 8 schools in this coastal town. She has been in Japan for over 2 years. At Mangokuura Elementary School, Anderson helps students ont the playground and then jumps on her bike heading down Route 398, Onagawa Highway, which runs along the coast, to her apartment. She will never make it, and her body is found washed ashore days later. In this city alone 2,283 bodies were found, 2,643 people were missing, 23,000 in shelters. The town of Onagawa with 10,000 people, near Ishinomaki, was washed away. And this is only one part of northeastern Japan hit by the earthquake and tsunami....

LyrArc Article Gist
Some of the crude rhetoric at Donald Trump rallies, and use of coarse language, according to the NYT. Working class and older Americans show their anger at a system that appears to have left them behind with slogans, stickers, T-Shirts. The idea of the wall figures in much of this and shows that the wall has become not jut about Mexico but a metaphor that captures this anger, that reflects this anger. Another aspect of the 2016 campaign is that those most vulnerable and most in need of help have not sought the comfort of knowing about programs to improve middle class and working class wages, incomes, to build infrastructure, create jobs, stop companies from shifting jobs overseas, plans for improving accesss to health care and education, to ask for specifics and delivery. This is the supreme irony of the 2016 election campaign that not enough attention is going to what will be done for the middle and working class, and what specifics will be delivered, in what time frame- which is essential for restoring the condition of the American middle and working class to where it was in the 2 decades after the Second World War. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ article provides a detailed account of the positions of Clinton and Trump on Wall Street, the financial industry, banks, Dodd-Frank, regulatory reform, 6 weeks before the U.S. presidential election.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Pakistan army and its anti India mindset is at the root of the problem Pakistan faces. The army has factions that support the Taliban. Its intelligence agency, the ISI, helped create the Taliban as a way to get strategic depth (as they called it) in Afghanistan, for it sees as a necessary perpetual conflict with India. And the failure in Pakistan, the crisis of Pakistan, lies in the failure of elected politicians, the failure of the army, to provide responsible government and peaceful relations with India and with Afghanistan. By pursuing a Hindu-Muslim conflict agenda, and a anti-foreigner agenda for Afghanistan, Pakistan has ended up undermining its own government, institutions, and sovereignty over tribal areas and the North West Frontier Province. The US by getting involved in the Hindu-Muslim conflict agenda, and the anti-foreigner agenda during the Cold War, by supplying weapons and aid for this to successive Pakistani military governments, now finds itself as the foreigner in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Pakistan army's anti-foreigner agenda, now that the Americans are the foreigners, is not something that even the army or the civilian governments can control. The only thing the army knows, and its raison-de-etre, is the protection of the state of Pakistan and an antiIndian, Hindu-Muslim conflict agenda. After 60 years of doing this since its founding the Pakistan army knows no other way. Failure to do what it is doing would remove it from its critical role as the most important institution in Pakistan, and relegate its officers and the army to a smaller role, with smaller committments of resources, a smaller army, and the loss of its privileged role in Pakistani society. This is the answer to Holbrooke's question to Pakistani businessmen, and civilian leaders, in Lahore recently, what is the crisis of Pakistan? And these businessmen and civilian leaders also touched on the army's role. For America as it sees the need to build a new economic partnership with Asia that would help revive economic growth, there is the need for deep soul searching. The Pakistan military sucks up resources that are so badly needed elsewhere, for the kind of construction the Obama administration sees for America, of roads, bridges, schools, new energy infrastructure. How can what is good and planned for America not be whats good for South Asia, for India, Pakistan, SriLanka and the entire region? The resources that are sucked up by the Pakistan military and its actions to foster aconflict atmosphere merely adds to the way resources are sucked for the military in India, when they are badly needed for development, economic growth, and the same kind of infrastructure building and education that the Obama administration plans for the US. Without correcting this flaw in its policies in South Asia the Obama administration cannot create a partnership with Asian countries that could play a critical role in America's own economic growth....

LyrArc Article Gist
It took a long time for the banks to understand what is in their best interests is in the best interests of the country's economy and homeowners, something Sheila Bair has been saying since the beginning of this year and implementing at IndyMac. Its just too costly for banks to use the foreclosure process to recover their money and it makes much better financial sense on the bottomline of banks and for the economy to make home payments affordable. Because the worse home prices get the worse the economy and banks do and nothing drives home prices down like foreclosures. The Bank of America settlement for Countrywide with state attorney generals to modify loans for 400,000 homeowners because of predatory lending practices also set the direction. Chase Bank is now using the Bair template to get the monthly payments down to an affordable level which is about 40% of the current payment by reducing interest rates and using a smaller loan balance and keep homeowners in their homes. Chase's plan will help 400,000 homeowners and will also help homeowners who are having difficulty making payments. It will put a 90 day hold on foreclosures till the program is put in place. Yet there is one problem. Only $350 billion of the 1.5 trillion in home mortgage it services are owned by Chase, the rest are owned by investors in the form of mortgage securities. It can do little for homeowners covered by these securites that are owned by hedge funds and other funds as a few of these funds oblivious of the overall interest including their own have threated to sue if loans are modified, and it would take some time to figure out who owns each security and what the terms are for modifying loans for that security. Its this part of mortgage securitiization that has slowed down a rational process of unwinding this problem throughout housing by making homeowners monthly payments affordable. And Fed's Bernanke did not come to grips with this point in his talk about mortgage securitization to UC Berkeley on October 31,2008, that mortgage securitization done in a way that make loan modification difficult is dangerous as it is today, and makes a crisis bigger than it otherwise would be, and turn a USA crisis into a global crisis through ricotcheting effects and a series of bad decisons....

LyrArc Article Gist
Mr. Vanderhei of Politico leaves to form a rival political coverage site called Axios, which has funding from Comcast Universal. The result of a rift between Mr Albritton, the owner, and the CEO, Mr. Vanderhei, is that many executives are now leaving Politico, putting it into a crisis. 

LyrArc Article Gist
David Welch of BW says the Cash for Clunkers program is a lemon, because it is underfunded and its noo narrow for car buyers to benefit. Only about 250,000 car buyers can benefit from aprogram of this size of $ 1billion. THe program is from August to November 1. Here is the faulty arithmetic if the goal is to stimulate sales. THe program pays $3500 to $4500 but this is place of trade in value. A carbuyer has to turn in a car getting less than 18 mile per gallon, but most cars get more than that. THe luxury models that get less than 18mpg would sell for lot more than $4500 in trade in value. And the old cars that get less than 18mpg and are worth less than $4500 in trade in value really old cars probably owned by buyers who at a time of economic distress and growing jobless numbers and credit card debt are not likely to be looking to make a purchase. Welch says it might even help sell more pickups if the really old pickups are traded in by buyers for new ones that get more mileage.

LyrArc Article Gist
The cash for clunkers program in turning in excellent results bothy in terms of promoting sales and in terms of the mileage improvement for the new cars put on the road. For Motor saw sales up 2.4% over same month 2008 and Hyundai 11% increase. In the light of this and the speed with wihich the initial $1 billion was used up and the $2 billion that was aded by Congress, and the success of the program in Europe, its hard to understand so little money has been allocated to this program as a part of stimulus spending. Senators Feinstein, Collins and Schumer are encouraged by the customer reaction to choose higher mileage vehicles. According to the Transportation Department, the average fuel efficiency of trade ins was 15.8 mpg, and the average fuel efficiency of vehicles traded in 25.4 mpg. Equally significant was that 83% of the trade-ins were trucks and 60% of new purchases were cars. The Ford Focus was the top selling vehicle. Dealers estimate they sold 250,000 cars with the rebate money....

LyrArc Article Gist
The House-Senate conference report contains $1 billion for the cash for clunkers program. It provides funding through the end of the current fiscal year September 30, 2009. It is expected to result in 250,000 better mileage cars being put on the road. Originally the House had voted in facvor of a $4 billion 2 year program. To qualify older trade-in vehicles must be driveable, insured by the same owner for at least one year prior to the trade-in, have been manufactured in the 1984 model year or later, and have a city-highway combined fuel rating of 18 mpg or less. Vouchers are baed on the mileage of the new vehicle compared with the old and can be worth upto $4500.

LyrArc Article Gist
Alan Blinder talks about the benefits of alarge cash for clunkers program and how it could be designed around what parameters and upon which it could be broadened or narrowed. One thing he points out is that it would help the economically challenged, though how these low income people would go out and buy new cars in the midst of deep recession and credit card bills, and other debt, is a question. The German customers were not in the debt situation many lower income Americans are. The alternative approach would be to broaden the program to give the middle class the benefits, and design it around giving a boost to the depressed auto industry and the midwest region. Such a program would need adequate financing like the $20 billion, Blinder says, and would include the possibility of turning in an old clunker for a Malibu or Impala or a Focus. Only focussing on small cars would not give much of a boost to Detroit car makers, which are focussed more on the middle and larger ends of the product line. From the cleaner environment perspective and carbon emissions perspective, the cars that are 13 years or older account for 25% of the miles driven, but 75% of the pollution from cars. This and reducing dependence on foreign oil suggest that the benefits of a well designed program or a combination of programs targeting different goals such as environment, boosting the Detroit car makers, and so on , could be well worth an investment of more than the $20 billion, Blinder suggests. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ editorial board opinion lists all the reasons for continuing the war in Ukraine without answering the question raised by Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg about- what US interest calls for losing an entire generation of Ukrainians and Russians young men to war? The US as a beacon of hope in the world requires asking this question. Kellogg is a 80 year old veteran who has seen hand to hand combat in Vietnam and survived, attended the US Army College in Kansas, and has decades of experience in the Army, and was National Security Adviser. The US should ask questions about what is its right role? NATO was started in 1949 against the wall coming up in Eastern Europe under Communism, the Warsaw Pact was formed to oppose NATO in 1955. Yet after the Warsaw Pact was  disbanded by July 1991 after the fall of Communism there was no effort to reassess forming a new architecture that is based on the new situation. Shouldn't NATO have been replaced after Warsaw Pact was no longer in existence? Russia was too weak in the 1990's and till 2010 and there was no one to make the case for a new defense architecture. And no effort to reconsider and see that there is no fallback to positions from the Cold War and before that to British Empire positions about protecting its dominions in India and Asia from Russia. Considering that Russia is the only major nuclear power other than US in 2025, and within the years of a pandemic that destroyed an entire generation of older people- American, Russian, Chinese and Indian.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Two US carrier strike groups and 17 naval ships prepare for joint exercizes with Japan's Self-Defense Forces off Okinawa in the first week of October 2021. In late September a British aircraft carrier group goes through the Taiwan Straits. China has flown aircraft near Taiwan's airspace before. On October 1-5 over a period of 4 days China sends 150 fighter, bombers and other aircraft near Taiwanese airspace. This situation is reminiscent of the situation in 1950-53 during the period of the Korean War when US president Harry Truman sent the Seventh Fleet to the Straits of Taiwan. In 1954 Chinese artillery started the shelling of offshore islands Quemoy and Matsu. This happened again in 1958 under president Eisenhower. At that point the US sent a naval contingent to the Taiwan Straits. The crisis was resolved through talks with China. Eisenhower then setup a joint defense agreement with Taiwan.  Here the Taiwan Defense Minister says China is capable of an invasion of Taiwan in 2021 but "it has to calculate what it would cost and what kind of outcome it would achieve." He also says that after 2025 "it would have lowered the costs and losses to a minimum." As US companies seek expansion in China the situation is changing rapidly in 2021 in the other areas.The US under president Biden sees the wars under previous presidents and the economic policies of not investing in American industrial strength have created risks for America in its role in the world. Biden seeks to restore American industrial strength through massive investments. It has been reported that Taiwan even considers the concentration of world semiconductor industry in Taiwan a way to assure the US dependence on Taiwan for semiconductors would lead to allied economic commitment to Taiwan in addition to defense commitments already given. In a sign of awareness of the distorted situation in semiconductor manufacturing that American companies such as Intel have allowed to happen, including ceding essential technologies in manufacturing semiconductors to other nations, the Biden administration has pushed to reverse these policies giving $52 billion in state aid. President Biden talked to president Xi of China in early September in a 90 minute call. This was aimed at easing hostility between the two countries. During that call the two leaders had agreed to abide by the Taiwan Relations Act, that states Taiwan's status should be resolved through peaceful means. It was passed in the US Congress in 1979 during the period when the US restored diplomatic relations with China. The situation today resembles that in the period after the Korean War into the late 1950's when China under Mao continued shelling of islands under Taiwan from the mainland. This makes the existing supply chains that make the US, Europe and India overly dependent on China,Taiwan, Singapore, for manufactured goods look antiquated and out of place. American companies such as Apple, GM, Black Rock and American financial companies are caught in a bind as they operate as if nothing is happening, when a lot has changed during the coronavirus pandemic. The Biden administration is pursuing its own long term policy for restructuring the supply chain for American industry. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Two Harvard economists, Lawrence Summers and Lant Pritchett, say China is likely to revert to the mean of average long term growth of developed countries after this spurt of growth is over. Growth is likely to slow to 6% by 2016, and revert to the mean of 2% for industrialized countries in the long term. Goldman Sachs banker Jim O'Neill, says the growth at a higher rate could be sustained because of urbanization. Summers does not rule out this outcome as he accepts a range of outcomes, with the most likely outcome being a reversion to the mean. The factors often cited for slowing growth are lower of productivity of capital as corruption and close connections determine where capital is allocated, misallocation of capital, large increases in credit in the economy since 2009 leading to bad debt in the financial system, aging society and demographics with increasing numbers of older people. Other reasons are the choices being made by Chinese leaders for slowing down to address the problems of air pollution and contamination of water supplies, inflation in housing prices, overdependence on exports, need to shift to increasing domestic consumer spending but unable to do this with the lack of spending power of large parts of the population because wealth is excessively concentrated in the upper ranks of society. The need to manage these forces ensuring some measure of stability depends on finding ways to reduce the growing concentration of wealth and power, in itself a challenge for the Communist Party elite. A combination of different factors with some still unknown factors are likely to play a part in this reversion to the mean for China, a situation encountered by every country so far in North America, Europe and Japan. This makes it even more important that each developing society structure its development around the most optimal goals with the least costs attached to the development....

LyrArc Article Gist
Rosa Ines Rivera, a cook at the cafeteria for the Y.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, with 2 small children, describes the protests over the increase by Harvard administration of the premiums charged on health insurance that now take up over 10% of the income. She says she lives in public housing with her parents as she lost her apartment because she is behind on the rent, and now cannot afford to pay the increase in premiums. About 750 workers at Harvard are on strike on this issue. She says dining hall workers want the current pay of $31,193  a year increased to $35,000 to provide a living wage that helps them afford medical care, because of the high cost of living in Boston.  To get some idea of the plight of workers who provide the kind of nutritious meals that a lot of students depend on for healthy living- Rivera says she takes in about $450 a week after taxes, or about $1800, rent is $1150, which leaves $650 for herself and two children for all food, and expenses in Boston. The $4000 in premiums for health insurance would be about 330 per month, leaving her about $320 for food and living expenses with 2 children. Why the need to bring up children in poverty in America, for generation after generation, after putting in a full day of work? ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Banking regulation in the U.S. after the Dodd-Frank legislation differs from banking regulation rules proposed by the Independent Commission on Banking in Britain. Britain has a much bigger financial sector relative to the size of its economy than the U.S., posing larger systemic risks. The commission in Britain is proposing structural changes that would separate investment banking from deposit taking at banks. Banks would have separate balance sheets for these two activities- and operate them as separate subsidiaries- even though they are part of one holding company. This means it would be harder to raise money cheaply for risktaking in investment banking. Under the Volcker Rule in the U.S., banks investment banking and deposit taking would not be separated in a structural separation- there would still be one balance sheet- only banks ability to trade with their own capital and run hedge funds would be constrained. Some banks have spun off trading operations in the U.S. and the the rules banks have to follow have not been clearly defined. Too big to fail is still a problem under current American regulation, though its effects are mitigated to some extent. As one expert puts it, its hard to regulate the banks because too much money is involved and the banks have the money and the lawyers to prevent or dilute new rules. The argument made by the banks in Britain is that universal international banking provides a public benefit and efficiencies. But John Vickers, the former chief economist of the Bank of England, and chairman of the Independent Commission on Banking, has a different view. He said recently, "it seems quite hard to identify and quantify real efficiencies as distinct from purely private gains."...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Economist points to Mexico's potential and compares it favorably to Brazil and China. Mexico's people are better educated and have higher standards of living than most developing countries including Brazil. Technical education is one of Mexico's strengths and it has good management talent. It suffered badly in the global financial crisis of 2008 because of the recession in the U.S., but it does not have to lower its sights and live with lower growth as the U.S. economy suffers a slowdown. As Chinese wages have risen, Mexico is looking better as a place to invest. And even as Brazil's credit markets getting overheated, there is much room for credit growth in the Mexican economy. Mexico could achieve a growth rate higher by about 2.5 percentage points according to one estimate, if it attracts more foreign investment and opens up the oil industry to foreign investment, implements reform for labor markets and opens up many sectors to competition. It needs to restricts the monopolies granted to businesses such as Telefonos Mexico run by Carlos Slim, as well as other cartels and monopolies to achieve higher economic efficency....

LyrArc Article Gist
Nicolas Tenzer, who teaches at Sciences Po in Paris, says that the new relationship between U.S. president Trump  and the French president Macron, is a result of Macron having the capacity to react quickly and follow his intuition. He says there is even a bit of seduction in this for the younger Macron to bring the older Trump back into the circle, knowing that Europe needed someone who could talk to the American president in a way that others did not choose to or just could not. This includes chancellor Merkel of Germany. The relationship started out awkwardly with Macron expressing some disdain after the Trump decision to withdraw from the Paris climate change agreement. Soon after the initial differences Macron's spokesperson Castaner said that it was an important task, that "of bringing the president of the United States back into the circle." It is an intelligent move and typical of Macron to move quickly and do things that make sense in the interest of the EU and America. On Bastille day the French are also honoring the U.S. for the sacrifices in two wars, and it made sense to bring the U.S. president in so that other differences could be set aside to work together on issues such as terrorism, mutual security, and trade. It is not uncommon to have seen such differences, and they were handled differently in the past. German chancellor Schmidt had a difficult relationship with president Jimmy Carter. Carter with his rural Georgia background as a peanut farmer was seen in the way Trump is seen in many parts of Europe. President Bush was also treated with skepticism in Germany, more for policies of going to war in Iraq.  For Macron it shows his uncanny ability to do things which for other people may not sound convincing. Being critical of the U.S. president may also have set the stage for a real relationship because it may have earned him the respect of being someone who had his views and was not hesitant to express them, just as he was on Algeria and other issues. And yet willing to have a friendly, open conversation with someone from a different background and with different views. At Lyrarc we singled out the Spiegel Macron interview on the fast train to Bordeaux, as something that showed him to be comfortable and calm  in unusual settings, and not affected by the magnitude of the task at hand or people's opinions. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Challenges facing McChrystal, his blunt assessment, who says his troops are in the situation of apowerful but stupid bull lunging after insurgents. More important to protect the Afghan population he says to his troops tna to kill insurgents. But do the people think this way or do they simply wnat to be left alone by both the Taliban and the American forces if they could speak their mind. See Intelilinks for ground reports including Kearns Goodwin.

LyrArc Article Gist
A poll done by the International Republican Institute, a nonprofit affiliated with the Republican party, of 3500 people across Pakistan found a couple of important things. The Republican Institute's goal is to promote democracy in the developing world. 1. Popularity of President Zardari at 9% and Nawas Sharif's at 55%. The US resumed contacts with Sharif, and Sharif is seen as able to bring the Islamic moderates to the American side. 2. Economic issues are what concerns Pakistanis most. Refugees are approaching the 1 million number according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. 3. 81% said the country was going in the wrong direction, Zardari was never elected and is incompetent and this could be the reason. But military is still unpopular, 77% want democratic rule, possibly with Sharif or some sort of combination of Sharif, lawyers movement, and Islamic moderates in charge. 4. From alow of 9% in January 2008, now 37% are willing to work with the USA against extremism. Could Obama's election and US support of Pakistan's effort to heal itself be apart of this change of heart? 5. 45% support fighting extremists in the tribal areas and the Northwest Frontier Province. And 69% say having the Taliban and Al Quaeda operate in Pakistan is a serious problem. If these poll results accurately reflect shifting feeling in Pakistan, American help to help Pakistan pull itself up by its bootstraps economically and unify the country under a democratic administration of Islamic moderates and people from other areas like the lawyers movement, could work. It also improves the prospects of pulling out of Afghanistan after the situation improves, and setting up an administration that comprises Islamic moderates and tribal representatives that keeps out Al Quaeda, and works to rebuild Afghanistan after seemingly endless years of war. These efforts would require cooperation of Iran, India, Pakistan and the US, and assistance of countries like Turkey, in creating an atmosphere that promotes peaceful development in the entire region. ...