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U.S. president Trump's 2017 budget is an effort to reshape spending priorities by the Republican party. Apart from Medicare and Social Security all other entitlement programs from the days of Lyndon Johnson's Great Society are subject to cuts. Deep cuts to Medicaid and food stamps, including introducing work requirements. The philosophy behind it is that compassion will now be measured not by how large these programs are but by how much the government can get people "off these programs and back in charge of their lives,"  according to Budget Director Mulvaney.  The cuts are $616 billion to Medicaid and Children's Health programs, $193 billion in cuts to Food Stamps, $143 billion in student loans, $72 billion in disability programs. The overhaul of the Affordable Health Care Act is part of this change. The reallocation would put more money into infrastructure for $200 billion, and in tax cuts, $19 billion in a parental leave program and $29 billion for veterans programs, plus added spending on the military. William Hoagland of the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Republican who worked on budget issues says it will be politically difficult as the cuts to lower income groups come with tax cuts for small businesses and higher income individuals.  Beyond the policy priorities there is an area where both Republicans and Democrats are skeptical of the budget. This is how it impacts the U.S. debt. Under Congressional Budget Office estimates the U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP which rose to about 75% after the Great Recession starting in 2008, is projected to grow to about 85%. In sharp contrast the Trump administration estimates of the Office of Management and Budget are for it to drop to 65% based on rosier estimates of 2% inflation, 3% growth for the decade ahead. Experts say this is unlikely once the Fed raises interest rates and the unemployment rate currently at 4.4% leads to rising inflation, undercutting growth which has remained below 2% for a long period. These concerns are also voiced by Hilsenrath in the WSJ based on the experience of other countries such a Britain that cut corporate taxes without seeing an uptick in economic growth. ...

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Mr. Trump has decisively changed the Republican party. Most Republicans support Mr. Trump personally, less the Republican party. Mr. Lindsey Graham, a senator from South Carolina, says of the Republican party before Trump that it had become a bit staid, that we looked like the banker next door who may foreclose on your house. Mr. Romney epitomized that in his view. Gone are the views on deficits, on wars, and on imports and transfer of technology to China as being acceptable.  Five years from 2015 when Mr. Trump came into prominence with his new style taking on the establishments of both parties with a fierce disdain for convention, both the Bushes and the Obamas and Clintons, the Republican party is completely transformed. Registered Republicans are now 60% non college educated in 2020 compared to 50% non college educated in 2016. The Trump policies on trade putting American workers first and America first have a resounding popularity with this audience- this should be no surprise after decades of job losses and factories shipped overseas under the previous administrations for 2 decades. Most of these workers are not college educated and are white and had enjoyed a good standard of living with a high school education in American factories till the shift of American manufacturing to China destroyed good paying jobs and impoverished the American working class.  Only 30% of college educated people are registered Republicans in 2020 compared to 40% in 2016. Overwhelmingly about 90% of registered Republicans are white.  They are majority male and older but there is a significant about 40% female and 40% young population under 40 years of age. This might resemble the party put together by Missouri Congressman Harry Truman as he led the Democratic Party in 1948 with a majority of non college educated Democrats, fighting for American workers and America first in the cold war with Russia. Truman also had a rough Missouri farm language and accent comparable to Mr. Trump's rough style and language disdainful of the old establishment and new tech establishment. Both were heavily disliked by the media and both did not let this bother them in any way. Both liked facing large crowds as Truman showed in campaigning by train across the country and Trump has shown in campaign rallies run in his own way. ...

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A centrist 73 years, and mentor of Macron, the head of the Movement Democrate allied to Macron's Renaissance party is appointed to succceed Banrnier as PM of France. Macron hit a new low of public approval rating of 23% by Ipsos. Scholz of Germany is at 18% following reaching 65% in Jan 2022. Bayrou says-“I am fully aware of the Himalaya of difficulties that lie before us,” Bayrou says he would strive for a “necessary reconciliation” with Melenchon of France Unbowed party and Marie Le Pen of National Rally on the left and right of the centrist Macron. These are mere labels- both Melenchon and Marie Le Pen want to see higher public spending and no cuts in the Budget for 2025, Macron is not eager for cuts, Barnier wanted to cut the budget to cut the growing deficit but this is not a time to cut spending as investment is needed to grow the economy and meet needs for public services and cost of living assistance. Macron was taken by surprise by Barnier's approach leading to a no confidence vote and Barnier resigning.  ...

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Krauthammer says he favors the Boehner Plan because the two stage debt ceiling hike will give time for negotiations and public scrutiny of plans for entitlement and tax reforms. He is critical of the Reid Plan because more than half of the $2 trillion deficit reduction under the plan comes from not continuing surge spending in Iraq and Afghanistan for the next 10 years, which he calls outrageous and fictional savings. The lack of Obama's own plan even after setting up and receiving the report of the Bowles-Simpson deficit commission is a sore point for him and other observers, demonstrating a stark failure to lead. Tea party advocates will need a new mandate in 2012 where they control more than just the House of Representatives to push for their plan of aggressive deficit reduction and a balanced budget. Krauthammer sees the Obama stimulus, auto bailouts, health-care reform, financial regulation, and the current battle over deficit spending as a large Keynesian gamble which has failed to revive the economy. A choice on limiting government or a different set of policies should now be left to voters to decide....

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Krugman points out that a centrist solution is not the panacea it sounds. A lot depends on what it is and what is seen as centrist, if it really is centrist, and if it makes sense. A centrist proposal that leaves out tax expenditures but is different from the positions staked out by the factions on both sides of the political spectrum, and sounds moderate may not be the right solution.

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How politics is shifting in Germany as Die Linke a party of discontented Social Democrats and heirs to the East German Communists has 14% support in opinion polls and the public opinion is shifting in favor of more state involvement and protecting workers.

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This editorial in the WSJ after the New Hampshire primary, points out that the attacks by Republican candidates on each other instead of educating voters on Donald Trump, will only lead to them falling behind. During the Republican television debate the sharp exchange between Christie and Rubio hurt both candidates in New Hampshire. It says that one of Trump's important weakness is that one third of the voters who voted for Trump have reservations about him. Trump was also lagging behind in voter confidence in his ability to handle an international crisis. Ted Cruz was not able to win big with non evangelical voters in a state on the East coast, which would affect him as a Republican nominee in November 2016. It also points out that voter perceptions about Sanders are changing- voters may now see a "socialist" as electable, if Republicans can nominate a person with no serious credentials and a volatile temperament. Voters may also now see Clinton having electability problems of her own with the email controversy, and voter skepticism about her honesty and trustworthiness. The Democratic Party has shifted in the Obama years- with exit polls showing 7 of 10 Democrats in the New Hampshire primary saying they are liberals, and one fourth "very liberal." ...

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This Buttonwood column in the Economist after the British 2015 general election says the election results show serious dissatisfaction with the political class. Labor was never forgiven for the 2007-2009 financial and economic crisis, and the "lost decade" in terms of decline in real wages and no improvements in the standard of living since then. The SNP because it is not tainted by these actions did better as a fresh face and authentic voice in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats suffered from their participation in the coalition government and the austerity years. The Conservatives benefitted from the problems and the crisis of confidence faced by the other major parties. The column asks the question about whether austerity can ever be a vote winning strategy. And it points out that the Conservative party won 37% of the vote compared to 36% in 2010. Labor went from 29% in one of the worst results ever in 2010 to 31%. UK Independence Party gained 13% vote share with increase in English nationalism. Behind all this it says is the general disillusion with the political class in Europe. And the Conservatives should take care lest the dissensions in the party with the EU referendum lead to a divided party. ...

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Arne Duncan describes the improvements in K-12 education in two regions of the U.S.- the District of Columbia and Tennessee between 2011 and 2013, shown by the 2013 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP). The hard work of educators, parents and school officials is paying off and offers examples for other parts of the country, says Duncan. Lessons include facing the facts, not dumbing down by setting low standards. With higher standards Tennessee students were only 34% proficient in math and 45% in reading compared to the 91-92% with lower standards. Republicans followed up on the work of Democrats in the state. Soliciting feedback from critics and experts- the feedback was used to improve systems and learning to help teachers and students. Schools chancellor Kaya Henderson says improving teacher quality was critical, and so was academic rigor. Still Duncan says more needs to be done, this only shows the right direction for states lagging behind, and one should not get complacent. The other areas college enrollment and dropout rates need to be followed carefully. International PISA results still show the U.S. at 27th in math and 14th in reading of 65 countries- making this only the beginning in setting the future course for U.S. educational improvements....

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California's governor Jerry Brown has put forward his budget plan for fiscal 2013 showing a budget surplus of $851 million. Brown was able to get Proposition 30 passed in the November 2008 elections. Higher income earners pay more in taxes for several years and the sales tax is increased. An improved economy with unemployment down from 11.3% in 2011 to 9.8% in Nov. 2012 is helping with higher tax revenues. General fund revenues are expected to increase 3.3% to $98.5 billion in the 2013 fiscal year from $95.4 billion the prior year. Brown has accomplished a remarkable feat of balancing the budget for 2013 and still continuing to invest in education and healthcare. Spending will increase 5% to $97.7 billion in fiscal 2013 from $93 billion in fiscal 2012 with higher spending on education and health care and lower spending in other areas. Brown's path to achieving this was eased after Democrats won control of both houses in the the state legislature. Says Brown: "Right now, for the next 4 years, we'll be talking about a balanced budget, we're talking about living within our means... This is new." Even Republicans praise this effort from a veteran of California politics- his father was governor in the Kennedy years, and he was governor in the 1980's....

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Krugman questions Bair's idea of the aggregator bank buying up toxic assets of the banks because the government may be assuming these huge liabilities at taxpayer expense to shore up shareholders. He questions whether these banks will not continue to be the zombie banks, that they are today, if the so called toxic asets are priced in today's market. The idea that today's market prevents these assets being priced at fair value may be deceiving he says. As the economy deteriorates, these banks even after the government at great expense buys up "toxic" assets, may still be losing money and remain that way for years, essentially zombie banks. Better he says for the government to face up to reality and nationalize these banks and then do what the Resolution Trust Corporation did with the savings and loans in the 1980's, which is clean up these banks and sell them after fixing them to new owners. The government might end up with amuddle headed approach that looks like the Resolution Trust type of action but without taking over the banks end up with something else. All because nationalization is thought of among Republicans, Democrats and Obama's people as some kind of dreaded word, when these banks are already dependent on the government for survival....

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The purchase of F/A-18 aircraft by Germany capable of delivering nuclear weapons stationed in Germany is critical to keeping the nuclear deterrance and the "nuclear sharing" agreement with the U.S. Older aircraft, the Tornadoes are now 40 years old. Chancellor Merkel has supported the purchase but this is now being called into question by its junior partner in the coalition government the SPD.  Leaders of the SPD party say they would block the purchase of 45 Boeing Company made F/A-18 jets proposed by Merkel's defense minister. Under NATO's nuclear sharing agreement going back to the 1950's it is believed there are about 180 B61 tactical nuclear bombs in rope, some 20 in Germany and spread out over Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. President Trump has said the U.S. will withdraw from a treaty with Russia that limits the presence of nuclear missiles in Europe because Russia is not living up to the agreement. This could lead to an arms race. The issue is leading to the beginning of a fundamental debate about nuclear armanent and military spending of a type that has not happened in Europe since 1982 when a rebellion in the SPD over the stationing of nuclear weapons in Europe led to the ouster of Chancellor Helmut Schmidt.  The Christian Democrats view the purchase of the F/A-18 at a time when Russia is updating its nuclear deterrance as fundamental to NATO and nuclear sharing. The SPD's leaders say nuclear sharing does not mean the need to host nuclear weapons, and give the example of Canada, a NATO ally that does not have U.S. weapons on its soil. ...

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Germany's Constitutional Court says it will require some time to look into the issues related to plaintiffs complaints about the creation of the European Stability Mechanism on June 29, 2012, by a vote of the German parliament, and whether it is unconstitutional. Finance minister Schauble urged the court not to delay because it woud affect market perceptions about Germany's commitment to tackle the eurozone crisis. Petitions were filed with the Constituional Court by a group of academics led by Peter Gauweiler, a member of parliament from Bavaria, and a Social Democrat Herta Daubler-Gmelin, a former Justice minister on behalf of 12,000 citizens. The petitions say the creation of the ESM and the fiscal pact are unconstitutional because it forces parliament to cede powers over Germany's federal budget. Jens Weidmann, head of the Bundesbank, said a quick decision by the court is not likely to end the crisis, as this would not end without the necessary structural and economic reforms.

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A second term Trump-Vance will face uphill risks and a mess in economics from a Trumpian Republican party and Congress, says WSJ. WSJ Editorial Board says a second Trump term is not without risks. Tariffs cost 1.1% in annual growth in the Trump first term says WSJ, and it did have an impact on inflation. It would have had greater impact on inflation with the supply chain crisis of Biden's first term, had this supply chain crisis happened in Trump's first term. A second term Trump-Vance support tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports which would have a bigger effect on inflation and economic growth than of the first term. The key difference is that with tax cuts a basic rule for Republican policies Trump-Vance second term would not invest in infrastructure the way Mr. Biden has done and Biden will do so in a second term. As a result the economic growth is likely to be greater and inflation smaller under a Biden administration. Trillions of dollars in investment in the economy and infrastructure under Biden in a second term will be missing in a Trump-Vance tax cuts administration policy. And with it hundreds of thousand of jobs created each quarter will be missing in Trump-Vance second term. Add to this the level of clarity of stable economic policy under a Biden second term and contrast it with some of the chaos in economic policy of a Trump-Vance second term. The basic contradiction between tax cuts policy and the nation's need for infrastructure spending/rebuilding under a Republican under Trump administration will not go away, present a huge stumbling block. Chaotic policy could come from Project 2025 that says consider abolishing the US central bank Federal Reserve. This kind of erratic and unwise policy proposals are clearly not happening under Biden and Yellen. Another key difference is the cost to the economy of delays of several years in doing nothing for climate in Trump-Vance 2024-2028. Severe effects on climate if nothing is done could cause acceleration of climate negative costs which a future economy under Democrats would face, in reality the Nation would face. America's Business has taken a short term approach to climate change, when the time comes to pay the costs of short term thinking it assumes it is somebody else's problem- this happened with supply chain concentration in China the burden falling on the middle and lower classes, it would happen again with missing climate change action under Trump-Vance second term. ...

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There are problems with TikTok as social media app that are shown under The Enemy Within in Movement for Global Literacy of Lyrarc.com that relate to global literacy of children spending many hours on the app taking time away from homework and reading, when over half of American children 12-18  perform below basic requirements on reading proficiency tests. Similar loss of reading comprehension in UK and France. China can regulate its internet by restricting it in ways that won't hurt literacy in China. India has banned the app.  There are problems with TikTok that relate to literacy and cultural literacy that Democrats or Republicans or the Supreme Court have failed to bring up let alone address. These concerns should grow in the minds of Americans concerned about preserving the cultural literacy that has existed in the US for the last 200 years- it is about who Americans are as a Nation of immigrants from Europe of the Renaissance and the Modern World. US is a mix of population from European nations of 204 million, of a black population of about 48 million in 2025, 7 million native Americans, and Spanish speaking Americans of 62 million, Asian population of 25 million. The US is at a critical juncture in deciding what kind of a nation it will be. Will it lose it's basic character of a nation which draws its inspiration from European civilization's defining characteristics of the Renaissance, the evolution of science and democratic forms of government leading to creation of the Modern World. The 25 million Asians immigrated to the US for a large part seeking this kind of modernization of society from what they left behind and this is largely true of Spanish speaking immigrants and Spanish settlers who settled California, Texas and Florida as Spain settled the American colonies before the English and French. TikTok ban opposed decreased from 2023 to end of 2024 by 18% from 50% to 32%, according to Pew Research. Pew does not say that this is the result of growing use of TikTok by teenagers and children for entertainment by 12-15% in the period 2023-2025. Between 2021 and 2023 use of TikTok in the US increased by 12% from 21% to 33% from which we can extrapolate that it increased by about 12-15% between 2023 and 2025 if it is growing at the same pace. Politicians oblivious of the effects on cultural literacy in the US are allowing it to be embedded in the US in ways that hurt basic reading and cultural literacy skills. ...

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Jimmy Carter rejected an ostentatious presidency and DJT is a beneficiary says the Editorial Board of the Washington Post. It was Jimmy not James. Beige wool cardigan sweater was OK for prime time address. No chaueffeurs or limousines for staffers. Thermostats were turned down to 65 degrees during the day. Daughter Amy was enrolled in a D.C. public school. He had his cousin Hugh Carter Jr pinch pennies by cutting out unnecessary costs in the West Wing. House Speaker Mike Johnson reminded the public of these virtues of simplicity and thrift. Jimmy Carter carried his own luggage into Air Force One. "Hail to the Chief" was not performed when he entered the room. The Nation appreciated this as is so evident in the final tribute and the heart felt gratitude of the people of America. One sees little division in the Nation when it comes to goodwill for Jimmy from Thune and Johnson in the US Congress whose tributes speak louder than the politics. Senator Thune should know, he grew up in a two room home in South Dakota and understands simplicity. What difference does it make if he is  a Republican or Carter a Southern Democrat. ...

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Ukraine's conflict flares up again in Feb. 2014 with the flow of Russian arms and fighters into eastern Ukraine. The U.S., Germany and France call on Russia to respect an agreement made in September 2014 to end the conflict. Russian president Putin's proposal is for a new agreement that takes into account the new territory captured by the separatists, in effect creating a new conflict zone with which to influence the government in Kiev. U.S. Secretary of State Kerry says the great technology available today makes it possible to see the flow of Russian forces and arms into eastern Ukraine, refuting Russia's claims that it is not involved. Germany's Merkel and France's Hollande plan to visit Russia to discuss the crisis with Putin as the Americans consider sending arms to the Poroshenko government in Kiev. In Brussels NATO chief Stoltenberg announces the preparations for the new Rapid Response Force to counter Russia's aggressive posture in Eastern Europe.

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In the New York Times Interview January 2026 the US president says about international law- it all depends on what you mean by international law. Presumably saying that if it is ok under international law to send drugs in to the US that kill hundreds of thousands of young people a year as is happening with gangs in Mexico and Venezuela, Colombia, and this is not a problem under international law for a decade now, then there is something wrong. The local population in these countries also suffers from such gangs and crime and this destroys the rule of law in these countries. Not much appears in the BBC, The Guardian, the Times of London, and the NYT, raising this issue in the name of international law and the rule of law. This leaves the president of the US to take actions based on his own sense of what is morally right in the case of Venezuela. On Greenland DJT has this to say. There is a long term lease of bases in Greenland but ownership is critical for it's defense and for protecting the eastern seaboard of the US. This is nothing new as Secretary of State Seward sought to get Greenland along with the Alaska Purchase in 1867. US made offers in the 1900's. And in 1946 Democrat Harry Truman offered $100 million in gold for Greenland. Today as in 1946 in the words of the US Commanders in chief "it is completely useless for Denmark." Denmark is a colonial power from Europe and has done little to develop Greenland. Less than 60,000 people live in the harsh climate of Greenland and mostly Inuits tribes. The US can better develop Greenland and invest in it. “Ownership is very important,” Trump said, adding: “Because that’s what I feel is psychologically needed for success. I think that ownership gives you a thing that you can’t do with, you’re talking about a lease or a treaty. Ownership gives you things and elements that you can’t get from just signing a document.” On China and Taiwan DJT says- “This was a real threat … You didn’t have people pouring into China. You didn’t have drugs pouring into China. You didn’t have all of the bad things that we’ve had. You didn’t have the jails of Taiwan opened up and the people pouring into China,”  DJT also said that no criminals were “pouring into Russia”. ...

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Republican success with the blue collar vote and the failure of Democrats to attract those without a college degree. Republican gains came from areas that were older, less diverse and less educated, says Farnam. Republican support was not as strong on both coasts and in areas with Latino voters.

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The only way the Conservatives can form a majority to govern in Britain is by getting the support of the Democratic Unionist Party with its 10 seats, and this would still give Conservatives 328 seats in parliament, with 326 required for a majority. This very thin 3 seat majority could lead to a fall of the government if a couple of Conservative party members defected. Here Davies points out that though the Democratic Unionist party supports Brexit it is of a very different nature. The party is based in Ireland and originated with Rev. Ian Paisley. With its Irish roots it wants free movement of goods and people across the border with Ireland which is an EU member, access to EU funding and protection for farmers. Ireland has shown serious concern about the Brexit vote, and Northern Ireland voters voted against Brexit 56% to 44% for Brexit. This open border and EU support is close to what is currently in place. As Davies points out this puts the whole Brexit negotiating process in doubt, with no coherent position for Britain at all, leading to a collapse of the talks and no deal with the European Union. Another reason the doubts about Brexit are likely to grow is that a large part of the UK Independence Party support has disappeared, with UKIP getting 1.8% of the vote compared to about 11% in 2015 election. The combined vote of the parties that see Brexit as a priority for Britain was in fact about 45.1%, combining Conservatives 42.4%, Democratic Unionist 0.9% and UKIP 1.8%. The parties that did not see Brexit as a priority for Britain won over 50% of the vote this time- Labor 40.0%, Scottish National party 3.0%, Liberal Democrats 7.4%, according to BBC. Davies says the increasing uncertainty is bad for the British economy. In coming months doubts are likely to grow about whether the referendum was a priority for Britain, and how this is a distraction from the other serious issues facing the British economy to ensure a better future. ...