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The Center for Economics and Business Research in London estimates GDP growth for the UK of 0.4% in 2012. According to Britain's Office of National Statistics the UK economy contracted by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to the third quarter.

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What is the Winter Fuel Payment in the UK? The Independent provides some answers. It was introduced in 1997 by a Labour government in Britain. It now provides 200 pounds to people over age 66, and 300 pounds to people over age 80. To get this payment pensioners and retired people have to be eligible for pension credits. This is possible if your income level is - Income at £11,343.8 a year if single, or a shared income of £17,313.4 for two or a couple is what qualifies one for this winter fuel allowance. The British energy authority says winter fuel costs will rise by about 300 pounds. This means a 500 pound hit to budgets of pensioners who are not eligible for winter fuel allowance under the Labour plan. The Labour plan is to do this because of the hole in public finances left by the Tories of 22 billion pounds. Starmer and Reeves say this is needed and the responsible decision. One million pensioners face a loss of Winter Fuel allowance and Age UK says: “Older people in this group often tell us they really struggle financially; the proposed change will make it even harder for them to afford to stay warm when it gets chilly. ...

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A NYT series on the forgotten men and women of the second world war includes stories on black women breaking the logjam of 17 million pieces of mail in Britain ready to be sent to allied soldiers in Europe. Read about Captain Adams from South Carolina who is the first black woman in the officer corps of the American Women's Auxiliary Corps, part of the American Army by 1944. By 1942 General Dwight Eisenhower had already found an equal role for black men in the war and American forces. He also included a role for black women in roles such as that facing Captain Adams whose unit made critical contributions to getting the mail to allied soldiers fighting in Europe. This included sorting mail in Birmingham, England, in difficult conditions, and in France as the Battle of the Bulge took place in France with heavy casualties, and after the war ended in 1945 in Rouen, France. Mail meant life and death correspondence between loved ones when there were no phones with connections we have today. In this sense it was a role that had great significance. These women worked 7 days a week, round the clock, in rotating shifts. It was an activity that meant as much to the army as anything else. ...

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A complete breakdown in negotiations between the U.S. and Russia happens after Russia continues its bombing campaign in Aleppo. About 275,000 people and 100,000 children are in the war torn area in northern Syria. The U.S. had called on Russia to stop the bombing campaign, but Secretary of State Kerry failed to persuade Russia to commit to a ceasefire. The result has been international criticism of the Russian role in the war, and speculation on what president Putin sees Russia gaining from this intervention in DW.com and other sites. 

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U.S. Secretary of State Tillerson calls Russia "incompetent" for letting Syria hold onto chemical weapons even after a deal to remove the weapons was made and implemented. Tillerson was also critical of Russian attempts to influence elections in France and Germany.

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Bank of England minutes for the Jan 8-9, 2014 meeting show officials saying "they saw no immediate need to raise the Bank Rate even if the 7% unempoyment threshhold were to be reached in the near future." This comes as the unemployment rate average in 3 months to November 2013 was shown at 7.1%, according to the Office of National Statistics. The rate declined from 7.4% in the previous three months. In August 2013 Bank of England officials said unemployment would have to fall to 7% before raising the Bank's benchmark interest rate. The Bank of England has set the bechmark rate at a low of 0.5% and the size of the bond buying program at 375 billion pounds.

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Department of Education invites controversy because of diversity programs and "transgender" as culture ignoring health risks. Established by president Jimmy Carter in 1979. Education in the US is run at the state level by each American state administration compared to UK where it is done at the national government level. It has one of the smallest budgets of any agency at 4%, Transportation is 1.7%, Agriculture 3.0%. Most of its work is overseeing $120 billion of federal grants and programs for public education through high school. It supports districts with low income students with $18 billion aid. Head Start program supporting 883,000 low income pre school children in 2022 gets federal aid from Department of Health and Human Services. National School Lunch Act of 1946 by Harry Truman is not affected as it is run by states,  federal aid comes from Department of Agriculture to 20+ million children. Republicans oppose spending about $1 billion to support Diversity program DEI initiatives and support for "cirtical race theory." There is opposition to "transgender." Britain's NHS had a commission look into transgender and says it poses health risks to children and young people. It also adds to anxiety of parents. Republicans are 53 -47 in majority in Senate- to scrap the agency Republicans need 60 votes in the Senate. The likely option is that they will pass a bill putting many of the functions in other agencies reducing its impact- between HHS, Treasury and Interior agencies. ...

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Prime minister Johnson of Britain is calling for a general election on December 12. This will be debated in parliament on October 28, and is expected to be rejected a third time. Mr. Johnson faces opposition from the Labour Party which wants to delay the election till it is certain that there is no Brexit without an acceptable deal with the European Union. Mr. Johnson heads a minority government that depends on the support of the Democratic Unionist party, the DUP, of Ireland. He also dismissed 23 Conservative rebel MP's from the Conservative Party headed by Mr. Hammond, a former finance minister under Theresa May who are leery of Mr. Johnson's willingness to go with a no-deal Brexit, if parliament does not back him. This puts Mr. Johnson 45 votes short of a majority in parliament. The new deal Mr. Johnson negotiated with the EU was done with concessions on Ireland and an open border, which was rejected by the Unionist party of Ireland. This deal passed in parliament but was rejected on its short timetable of less than a week giving MP's little time to look at the details.  The Labour party is also divided on going into an election before it is ready because it is behind by 10 points in the polls.  The reason the Johnson deal was initially passed in parliament was because 18 Labour MP's decided to support it pursuing a strategy of getting it rejected by passing amendments during final passage.    ...

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The Hindu's Piyush Pandey describes the fire sale of assets that is planned as the Reserve Bank of India pushes forward with the effort to clean up the balance sheets of Indian banks. Indian banks have an estimated 5 lakh crore of bad loans. Separately Crisil ratings agency cited the bad loans in the banking system as a hurdle that must be cleared for India to make the necessary investments in infrastructure in the next five year period 2018-2022. The Hindu's own review shows a startling amount of debt in the ten largest corporate business groups in India-  500,000 crore of debt to the banks. Anil Ambani's group alone owes 121,000 crores to the banks, with some of the businesses not able to service the debt. Canadian pension funds, Nippon Life Insurance and other foreign companies are taking stakes in business as this process takes place. The Mukesh Amani Group alone has increased the debt load as a result of the 150,000 crore rupees spent on Reliance Jio. Other investments that have led to losses is the steel business of Tata Group in Britain, which is down to zero value, says the Hindu. This report gives details of the fire sale for the other leading companies in India. ...

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Compared to chancellor Scholz Merz sets his goals and is clear about his goals. His active style is different from previous chancellors. His first meeting with Trump showed this personal style which is proving to be more effective than Merkel or Scholz. Merz had to wait for a long time in the private sector till Merkel retired to come back to politics. During Merkel's early years Merz challenged Merkel for leadership of the Christian Democrats party. Merkel's policy on migrants has proved to be a failure, and Merz is now in a position to take the CSU in a new direction closing the border and working closely with the US and Britain, Italy, on border enforcement. Merz is also unique and very different from the disinvestment period under Merkel which let German infrastructure deteriorate and fall apart, another failure of Merkel's years as chancellor. Merz's first action was to get close to a trillion dollars of new funding to rebuild defense and infrastructure over the next decade. Merz is head of a coalition with the SPD with SPD's leader Lars Klingbeil as finance minister. Scholz headed a coalition that was dysfunctional as the Free Democrats Lindner was opposed to investment in German economy from the outset. Under Merkel the Christian Democrats took no action to rebuild Germany, and were preoccupied with eurozone finances. ...

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The European Union was faced with a baseline tariff of 10% which after slow progress on negotiations is up now to 15%. EU frustration is evident in this story in the WSJ. But this could also be just a negotiating tactic of the EU. Bottom line the EU needs the US as Germany faces an assertive Russia. Germany is aware that France and Britain are further away than Germany from Eastern Europe and Russia.  Under chancellor Merz there is  much more rapport with the US than ever existed under the Merkel government or the Scholz government. Merz has disagreed with the sale of stake to COSCO in Hamburg port and many decisions from the Merkel period on immigration, being more aligned with the US in spirit. This was evident in the visit and meeting of DJT with Merz at the White House. DJT says even of Starmer of Labour that "I like him a lot." This could easily be said about the relationship between DJT and Merz. The decision by DJT on Patriots to replenish German supplies and by Merz to finance this and shift Patriots in Germany to Ukraine is a clear example of the path chosen by the two leaders for cooperation. German decisions will be driven by Merz in the direction of economic cooperation with the US with none of the condescending attitude that Merkel and even Scholz showed towards the US out of a lack of grasp of what is happening both inside Germany and the US, the need to rebuild the US and Europe after the trade disasters and lack of investment in the home base of 30 years. ...

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DW.com's Barbara Wesel describes the chaos in the Conservative Party and the British prime minister Theresa May's stubborn pursuit of Brexit. Speaking in the House of Commons Theresa May showed no flexibility to reconsider her decision to present a 558 page Brexit document detailing the negotiated agreement to parliament for a vote, even though it lacks the support of the Labour Party and prominent Conservatives in her government. Two Brexit Secretaries have resigned. The Transport minister resigned calling for a second referendum on Brexit. May continues to stick to her basic argument that she is following the wishes of the British people given in the first referendum. Even though she is Conservative MP for Maidenhead supporting Remain, and campaigned to stay in the European Union. Wesel says May has proved once again that she has an unrelenting stubbornness. Lacking even the ability to take into account the variety of opinions carefully presented in parliament from different angles by MP's. Once May has latched on to an idea there is no way she can be drawn off her course, and she has continued saying it is in "the national interest" at every turn without defining this in the particular context. The session in the House of Commons clearly showed Brexit's flaws, as in reality the Conservatives themselves have serious misgivings about the far right Brexiters push for separation without clear understanding of where this takes Britain and the British economy. The Labour Party sees this as an opportunity for a change in government. ...

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Google has launched a new project using technology to let users tour art galleries around the world. This was launched at Tate Britain in London. This is part of Google's latest interactive online resource called Art Project. This is a collaboration with 17 museums including three in New York - the Frick Collection, the Museum of Modern Art, and the Metropolitan Museum of Art. Visitors can examine in detail certain artworks selected by the museums- Van Gogh's 'The Starry Night,' Pieter Bruegel the Elder's "The Harvesters," and a painting by Bellini.

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Israelis from across the political spectrum say the nuclear deal with Iran in negotiations with the U.S., Britain and France, threatens Israel. Israel's nuclear experts say the 12 month breakout window for Iran to break the agreement and rush to develop a nuclear weapon in 12 months is not sufficient, because of the time it takes for detection and develop the response. Israelis have a deep distrust of Iran's intentions. On the other side of the Middle East the Saudis are also expressing serious concerns about the negotiations giving Iran enough leeway to keep the nuclear program and make a weapon at a future date. The proposed agreement creates further disagreement between prime minister Netanyahu and U.S. president Obama.

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“My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA." European perceptions of recent happenings in the Ukraine war and the war's progression from the beginnings over three years will matter in 2025 as Europe, as Germany, France and Britain take on the role of bringing a fair peace to Europe that closes the war and does the reconstituting of defense architecture of Europe under new institutions that needed to be taken up in the 1990's after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Republicans and DJT's perception of Europe as 27 states is likely to be false. Germany and France in the 21st century may just be stepping into a role that was prepared since the formation of the European community in the 1950's with Germany and France at the core of Europe. It may surprise many that Europe just steps into this role. And with it a reconstituting of the defense architecture of Europe that needed to be done after the fall of the Berlin Wall and not left to the vagaries of free market capitalism that have created the present situation. “It was not a spontaneous reaction to interventions by Zelenskyy, but obviously a manufactured escalation,” Merz of Germany has said recently of recent White House happenings.  “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” Germany's Merz says and means it even if it confounds the US, China and other nations. ...

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This WSJ editorial says despite his call for "hard-hitting sanctions" prime minister Cameron of Britain has not taken action to stop the flow of "dirty money" from Russia into the City of London. About $75 billion left Russia so far in 2014 in capital flight as the Russian elite shifts money overseas including to the City of London. France has a planned $1.6 billion sale of Mistral naval ships to Russia, and will need the British example to cancel this sale. Putin's strategy is to distance Europe from the U.S. In the EU countries opposing tougher sanctions are Germany, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Netherlands suffered the most with 193 Dutch citizens killed in the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine.

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The decline in the value of sterling, easing of monetary polcy, and fiscal policy stimulus measures, all are helping to stabilize the British economy. Because of its smaller manufacturing base Britain will see asmaller drop in GDP of about 4% compared to Japan and Germany where the drop will be in the range of 5-6%. Britain's strength in pharmaceuticals and aircraft industries which are relatively stable makes the impact less severe. But with government increasing its borrowing, 175 billion pounds or $254 billion in 2009 alone, public sector net debt is expected to go up from 40% of GDP to 80% of GDP by 2013-2014.

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Tempelhof airport is chosen as place for additional housing space for thousands of refugees arriving in Berlin in 2015. Berlin is expecting 40,000 refugees under the quota system. Housing space is hard to find to accomodate refugees arriving in large numbers in September 2015. The airfield has been preserved by conservationists as a place for children to play frisbee and as outdoor park space. Now the hangars at Tempelhof can be used to create housing space as winter approaches and tents become inadequate. During the Berlin Airlift 200,000 flights by the air force of U.S., Britain, Canada, Australia, South Africa, participated in sending food and medical supplies to the people of Berlin when the Soviets blockaded Berlin on April 1, 1948 till May 12, 1949. It was lifted when it was clear as much in supplies were delivered by air as before the blockade. As this time Germany takes on a similiar humanitarian challenge the memories of that period provide inspiration for the effort.

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Boris Johnson, Mayor of London, is critical of the British government's cuts in annual rent subsidies by 8%, or $3.2 billon, by 2014-15. London Councils, the umbrella group for London's 33 local authorites, says that 82,000 households in London will become homeless as a result of these cuts. Johnson told the BBC that the cuts will push renters to the suburbs- as has happened in Paris- and he will not tolerate a Kosovo-style cleansing of London. A labor party lawmaker in Leeds says that 15,000 families in Leeds will be affected by rising rents.

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Senator Tom Cotton says in this op-ed article in the NYT that president Obama's inaction in the face of a chemical attack by the Syrian government in 2013 badly damaged American credibility in the world. Failing to act to prevent the extension of the conflict to civilian areas in 2013,  had many adverse consequences- it showed the U.S. lacking the determination to prevent the use of chemical weapons, worsened the refugee crisis in Europe, created the conditions in which the pro Brexit camp could use immigration as a major issue, left the Turkish government without the support it had counted on from NATO allies and facing the brunt of the refugee crisis by itself as it took a downward course. The U.S. has long held the position of being a force that stands up for the basic rights of human beings, alone of all countries it has felt that it had to act when acts of this nature are committed. In this sense more was lost than just the credibility with other countries, in some ways the light shining on the hill could no longer be seen in the world, bringing on a sense that some dark cloud had settled in. ...

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Robert Lighthizer, U.S. Trade Representative, makes a passionate plea for the dignity of work in America, the founding principle for the society of opportunity that America has been and the reason it was settled by immigrants from Europe over 200 years. He points out that trade policy is not about geopolitics or about efficiency as others perceive, it is about what kind of society we want to live in. Is it about a society of opportunity? This is the foundation on which this American continent was settled by settlers from Britain and Europe, and the basis of the growth over two hundred years till the last four decades. From 2000 and China's entry into the World Trade Organization under president Clinton to 2016 the U.S. manufacturing base has shrunk with the loss of five million jobs, two million jobs lost to China in the period 1999-2011 alone. And 350,000 automobile manufacturing jobs to Mexico since 1994, one third of all U.S. automobile jobs. Without the initiative and hard work of Mr. Lighthizer both American workers and Mexican workers would be stuck in low paying jobs. The USMCA he negotiated changed all that by giving Mexican workers fair wages and American workers and manufacturing the opportunity for revival.  This view was also expressed by Intel founder Andy Grove, a founder of one of the first pioneer companies in Silicon Valley. Grove asked the question after seeing the outsourcing of production out of America and the condition of the American worker- he said for him it was about what kind of society he wanted to live in. It was all about the dignity of the American worker long ignored by economists who live in a world of theory and the elite that has lived for so long apart from the places where the fabric of American workers and working life was torn apart. It was a question that touched Andy Grove's heart just as it does for Robert Lighthizer and others who are fighting to make America a society of opportunity for the American worker and opportunity for the American people, for dignity in America. It also charts a new course for the French worker, the British worker, the Indian worker, as other countries learn from the American experience. We have covered Grove and Lighthizer from the early days of their leadership and wise reminders to the people of what America is and stands for. Lighthizer points out one huge error that makes the thinking of these economists and elite that have not listened for so long, more than a bit crazy, reckless and callous. He says there about half of 250 million adults who lack a college diploma in America. Historically manufacturing has provided stable well paying employment. Even if with investment in education they were taught to write software code, there aren't enough jobs for them. The combined total of jobs at Apple Google, Facebook and Netflix is 300,000 jobs. Never has so much been at stake for so many and defended by so few. ...

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Saudi Arabia and the UAE are emerging as large arms buyers. Saudi Arabia spent $80 billion on arms purchases in 2014, more than France or Britain, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The Emirates spent $23 billion, triple the amount spent in 2006. Qatar made a $11 billion deal in 2014 for air defense systems and helicopters. It is looking for F-15 fighter jets to replace its fleet of older Mirage jets. Lockheed plans to replace smaller Pentagon sales by increasing global arms sales to 25-30%, according to CEO Marillyn Hewson. It has setup a separate division for foreign military sales.

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The results of a Wall Street Journal analysis of 11 countries shows the risk of a stretched out period of stagnation in the economies of the USA, the UK and Japan. Jobs is a critical area in which this is apparent. In Japan employment is down 3.3% from December 2007, in the UK 2% lower, and in the USA 4.8% lower from December 2007. U.S. household debt is down from 131% in early 2008 to 122%, and poses a big burden. In the UK the household debt is larger than in the USA. And Japan's deficits are over 200% of GDP, creating an overhang that depresses jobs and growth. S. Korea, Taiwan and Australia have benefitted from the recovery since 2008 in China, India and the rest of Asia.