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Kurdish and Iraqi element in the political volatility that has moved oil prices higher. Turkish Parliament votes to allow a military incursion into Iraq's Kurdish north by Turkey.

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On the Iraqi part of the oil equation. Iraqi production now is about 2 million barrels a day below peak capacity of 2.5 million barrels. A Turkish invasion could damage this source.

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The story of a Syrian Kurdish 4 year old child, Aylani, who died as a small boat making its way from the Turkish coast to the Greek island of Kos capsizes. The mother and two children are drowned and the surviving father tells the story of fleeing from Damascus, to Aleppo, to Kobani, as the war spread in the Syria-Iraq region. The father's sister in Canada sent $4000 to the parents for the perilous journey arranged locally.

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Crude oil reaches a high of $90.46 on the exchange pushed higher by sanctions by Bush on the Revolutionary Corps and some Banks in Iran, the threat to the oil pipelines from Kirkuk in Iraqi Kurdistan to Ceyhan in Turkey with its possible entry of Turkey into Iraqi Kurdistan, and statements to by the Secretary General of OPEC El-Badri that OPEC has no price band or target and is not worried by prices at $90 per barrel. Also aggravating the situation is lower oil inventories as winter approaches with IEA estimating a drop of 33 million barrels between June and September, contrasting with increases the past 5 years as Fall approaches.

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The partition of Iraq would have lead to increased ethnic conflicts and civil war which is what all sides in Iraq recognized. Sunch partitions lead to ethnic cleansing and even more hostilities. As Senor says here the partition would have involved expelling Iraqis from their home on a large scale. A bigger wave than the refugee situation before this from ethnic strife as it would now be official. Compare this to the partition of India. Once its official a huge wave of expelling begins and an official kind of ethnic cleansing occurs as hotilities increase and each of these partitioned areas starts to get outside help from neighboring countries and an arms race in the area begins and new fears are aroused. No question things were bad but it its to the credit of all the Iraqi parties and leaders that they had the good sense to act in the right way. As Senor asks what do you do with Kirkuk which is majority Kurdish but has a large Sunni population. Its also to the credit of Bush advisors and General Petraeus that they continued to persevere when things looked very dim. A further inflammation in Iraq would not affect people in Des Moines or Biden's Delaware so when things get really nasty its easy for an expert or politician in the USA or Europe to take some policy action and then leave leaving that region in Asia or Africa to bear the consequences....

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The Syrian war started with Arab Spring in 2011 and a popular uprising against the rule by a Alawite minority that came to power in a coup staged by the elder Assad in 1970, says this report on the civil war in Syria. The war dragged out over a decade with the northwest in the control of Kurds, and groups backed by Turkey. Groups backed by Turkey which want to restore Syria to its national origins before the current regime took Homs, Aleppo and Damascus in a week as Iran and Russia withdrew from the country following the war in Ukraine and the Israel conflict with Iran. The US has only a small presence in the country to protect against terrorist groups. One of the effects of the conflict is the flow of migrants to Europe through Hungary into Austria and into Germany during the Merkel years. The opposition to migration that led to the CDU's decline in popularity and to Brexit in Britain started with this flow of migration from North Africa and the Middle East conflicts emerging out of the Arab Spring. In Britain the migration was also from Poland and countries in Eastern Europe.  This led to Reform UK and the Brexit referendum. In the US it led to the Border becoming a major issue in 2016 with migrant surge from Mexico in the last years of Obama's second term.  The collapse of the Venezuelan economy, economic troubles in central America led to another surge in migration in 2021-2023 from these countries making the Border a major issue in the US in 2024, and giving DJT a second term in office in 2025.   ...