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US president Biden's State of the Union speech on Tuesday Feb. 7 is much awaited as he prepares for the 2024 election. Much of the major legislation including the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips and Science Act had bipartisan support. America is back and building better, and Biden hopes to continue his efforts in this direction, even as he faces a divided US Congress. Biden will also want to show the vigorous style of his leadership as America recovers its position in manufacturing, research and development, improves the lives of working families and tackles inflation.

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India's roadmap for the first of 25 years to 2047 shows key goals of Inclusive Development and Empowered youth, women and all sections of society in growth. It builds on the work since 2014 of Leaving No One Behind.  Sab Ka Saath, Sab Ka Vikas, Sab Ka Viswas, Sab Ka Prayas remain the key ideas behind it. With All, For Everyones progress, Confidence of All, Efforts of All. To provide essential nutrition as the floor foodgrains were provided to 800 million for 28 months and extended to Jan. 1, 2024, investing $31 billion. Building also on having achieved the doubling of per capita income to 2 lakh rupees, about $2500 since 2014, ensuring better quality of living and life of dignity for all citizens.

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This WSJ report on Elon Musk of Tesla shows him neglecting a healthy lifestyle and not paying enough attention to needed sleep and nutrition. Since taking over Twitter the 51 year old Musk is working even longer hours from 80 hours to 120 hours a week, says this WSJ report. This type of hectic lifestyle is not productive in the quality of work and comes with a personal cost to health. Musk's acquisition of Twitter acts as a serious distraction from running electric car maker Tesla.

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The economic crisis in Turkey in 2022 wiped out half of the value of the lira. Inflation surged. The war in Ukraine hurt Turkey as it is dependent on Ukraine for grain supplies. The surge in fuel prices and the weaker currency meant higher inflation and more of its scarce foreign reserves going to imports of oil and gas. Net foreign reserves dropped to $6 billion in July, coming back up to $26 billion by December 2022.  President Erdogan maintained close relations with Russia to have access to  Russian oil and gas. Turkey has increased exports to Russia by 45% including clothing, household appliances and electronics. Russia is considering postponement of $20 billion owed for natural gas imports. And Russia transferred $5 billion to Turkey in July for a nuclear plant, with $10 billion expected later on. This helps cover the more than $100 billion the Turkish central bank used in 2022 to support the currency Lira. Erdogan's foreign policy has been to act as an intermediary in a UN negotiation for opening the Black Sea shipments of grain from Ukraine and fertilizer exports from Russia. This helps Arab countries in North Africa including Egypt which depend on Ukraine for vital grain supplies.  Everything Erdogan does says a former foreign minister is designed to push up his poll ratings which have risen about 5 percentage points from a low of about 39% in January of 2022 to about 44%. Inflation at 57% in Jan 2023 is still hurting ordinary people in Turkey and the outcome of the May 2023 election after 20 years of Erdogan in power is uncertain.  ...

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India's 945 million voters today compares with 174 million in 1951, and 214 million in 1962. Not till 1962 was election turnout at over 50%. In 2014 and 2019 election turnout was at 66%. The Election Commission of India wants to see turnout at 75% by helping migrants and youth to vote. 

 

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Stock funds in the US which suffered decline of 18% in 2022 staged a recovery of 7.8% in January 2023. The Fed's ability to bring down inflation and the health of the economy, improving economic conditions in Europe, China, and India, provided supportive conditions.

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Ryan Gellert, CEO of Patagonia, hopes to demonstrate a different way of doing business that supports action to protect the planet from climate change, increases upward mobility in the US, and supports US democracy by distancing itself from socially disrupting social media. In Weekend Confidential WSJ talks to the CEO of Patagonia outdoor clothing retailer.

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State finances in the US are in strong shape with the federal stimulus and rapid recovery, says this report in the WSJ. US states will hold 136.8 billion in rainy day funds. This is 12.4% of total spending. Healthy reserves make spending cuts and laying off workers for local governments and states unnecessary in an economic downturn. This is a good sign for the US economy.

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Doctor are suffering from a "demoralization syndrome" says Eric Reinhart, physician at Northwestern University. He sites one study that shows universal access to health care in America could have prevented at least 338,000 deaths during the pandemic. Overwork comes from physicians retiring from the healthcare workforce in large numbers. In 2021 117,000 physicians retired and only 40,000 physicians joined the workforce. Another 20% will retire in 5 years. Burnout itself comes from a realization that the system is failing its people and you are working within it without the social and cultural narratives that supported previous generations of physicians. It is these narratives of honesty and service that are the essential parts of the human condition that are lacking without access to good health care for all the people and the education to promote good health.

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People at street protests in France are increasingly asking whether the pension reform from 62 to 64 years is that much of a priority in 2023 when people are just recovering from the pandemic and a cost of living crisis with high inflation and high energy costs stemming from the Ukraine conflict. The independent Pension Advisory Council stated "pension spending is not out of control, it is relatively contained." More people turned out than before in a second round of street protests by over half a million people in Paris. The reforms come down harder on women who worked part time to raise children. Age discrimination for jobs in France is widespread. The pandemic has created additional stress and burnout at work leading to early retirement in the US and other countries. Some of the pension changes are being used to finance an expansion of the military budget. Social justice is seen as at risk in France in a society that is socially fragmented.

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Turkey's elections for parliament and for president are on May 14, 2023. President Erdogan is running again after two decades in power. Turkey faces high inflation of over 57% which has created a serious cost of living crisis in Turkey. Erdogan has issued a wide range of stimulus measures- energy subsidies, a doubling of the minimum wage, pension increases, and a chance for 2 million retirees to retire immediately. A kilogram of tomatoes used to cost 8-10 liras and now costs 25 liras. Rents are going up with steep increases. Turkey has been hit hard by the war in Ukraine as it depends on Ukraine for grain supplies. A popular mayor of Istabul Ekrem Imamoglu from the Opposition is shown here as an alternative for president. Erdogan started his political career as Mayor of Istanbul with the military opposing him. His management of the economy helped him win two terms as president, which is now in a severe crisis.

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By 2024 Dholera Special Investment Region airport and the expressway linking Ahmedabad to Dholera will be operational, says India's Union Minister Piyush Goyal. Developed from scratch on vast stretches of land in the Gulf of Khambat 100 kilometres from Ahmedabad it is expected to be India's best manufacturing zone,  comparable or better than any manufacturing zone in China. It is part of the industrial effort to build world class manufacturing zones in India that fit in with the shift of manufacturing from China as part of the redesign of world supply chains to avoid overconcentration in any one part of the world.

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Michael Serpa braves the New England winters to train for summer bike rides in the Pyrenees mountains of France and Spain. In addition to physical and mental benefits there are friendships outside his work. He also does full body workouts in the gym to stay fit for the summer.

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A tandem 3900 bike ride from the Pacific coast of northern California to the Atlantic coast of Florida, as part of the first 3 months after retirement is shown here in the WSJ. An effort to clear the mind for retirement- the effects of cycling through the saguaros in Arizona, cresting a peak in New Mexico, and up coastal areas on the Atlantic coast. The scenery takes away many of the worries of retirement.

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Russia is planning an offensive in Ukraine, in the south and in the east, on multiple fronts.

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Higher interest rates and the peaking of car prices in 2022, the decline in used car prices, is keeping buyers away from car dealers.

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The US shoots down a Chinese surveillance equipment loaded balloon floating over the continental US after it gets into US territorial waters off the coast of South Carolina. The F-22 fighter jet at 58,000 feet shot the balloon at 65,000 feet over the Atlantic ocean. US president Biden waited till it was over the water so that the surveillance equipment could be retrieved from the coastal waters and examined.

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This report in The Guardian shows that ChatGPT is nothing new. The first version of this kind of generative AI was developed in 1966 at MIT by a computer scientist Weizenbaum, who called it Eliza. The buzz around it like that around ChatGPT was that it was thinking and acting on its own, the way humans like to think it did, but in fact Weizenbaum showed that it was simply code written to take what was given to the computer as input and spitting it out in a different way that made it look that it was acting on its own, when it clearly was nothing but parroting it out like a parrot. The issue of turning our world over to robots based on AI is controversial and even dangerous. A Japanese futuristic movie shows how the man who has written the code for the master computer that runs everything in Japan is disillusioned about it and finds himself in a nightmare world where the machine tries to isolate and eliminate the man who created it. Machines cannot think or have emotions like humans do and it is these emotions, rethinking, that the world depends on for its survival. Can anyone say that a machine would have made the decision that Chinese president Jinping just made in January of making a complete u turn and moving away completely from lockdowns into a complete opening with a plan that appears to have worked and is reviving China's economy following the street protests by informal groups including young women? ...

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A Mauritius connection that the WSJ shows is part of the Adani expansion story. WSJ says one of the largest shareholders of Adani Power is Opal Investment Pvt. Ltd. Adani Power shows Opal as an independent shareholder with no ties to Adani Power beyond its 4.69% stake in Adani Power. WSJ says its review of corporate filings shows that Opal was incorporated in the island nation of Mauritius by Trustlink International Ltd, a financial services firm with ties to the Adani family. WSJ says whether Adani family members or executives wield influence over Opal lies at the heart of allegations by Hindenburg Research of New York City. Companies without a free float of at least 25% of shares risk being delisted under rules set by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. WSJ says in the third quarter of the current financial year ending March 31 Adani family members and companies with ties to the Adani empire held 74.97% of Adani Power shares, according to corporate filings. And Opal's stake in Adani Power accounts for nearly 19% of the shares that Adani Power is required to float to independent shareholders. Off shore investment companies based on the Indian ocean island of Mauritius have limited requirements for corporate disclosures. WSJ says they play a key role in Adani firms' efforts to tap capital markets. ...

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Finance Minister Sitharaman says India's economic image and its macroeconomic fundamentals are not affected by the withdrawal of the Adani FPO. In the last 2 days alone she said, foreign exchange reserves had increased by $8 billion. She said Securities and Exchange Board of India has the authority and ability to see to it that "markets are regulated in prime condition."