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The Ukraine war has serious side effects with food prices going up as much as 50% in parts of the world that include Asian and African nations and nations in the Middle East. Countries with debt or facing the aftermath of wars and conflicts fare much worse.  Coming after the problems created by the pandemic in the economy and health of many countries these nations are ill prepared for what is happening. 

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Prevailing bets in financial markets by investors are that inflation over the next 12 months will be 3.3%. This is also reflected in the way oil, copper and commodities markets prices are declining. Some of the decline comes from sharply slower growth in China of less than 4%. This means inflation is headed in the right direction, and circumstantial driven by the war in Ukraine and supply chain issues, and not embedded or structural, say experts. 

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One of the side effects of the Ukraine war is the gradually improving relations between the US and Iran. The US released some funds to Iran that were frozen. Here Iran responds by slowing down its buildup of near weapons grade nuclear fuel. In this way president Biden has tackled the difficult problem of Iran's nuclear program in a low profile way, one of the achievements of the Biden administration's foreign policy.

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The Hindu provides this look at the life and career of European Union president Ursula von der Leyen. Today Leyen is one of the prominent leaders in the European Union, and leads the fight against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Leyen has visited places destroyed in the Russian invasion such as Bucha and talked to refugees, mostly women and children She has stated on Twitter after proposing a complete ban on Russian crude oil to Europe- "we want Ukraine to win this war." After a mediocre performance as Minister of Defense Leyen took the position at the EU headquarters in Brussels, where her father had served as a civil servant. Her father was  elected as Minister President of Lower Saxony province after working at EU in Brussels. Leyen went to secondary school in Brussels. Studying economics at London School of Economics before shifting to medicine, getting her degree in 1991. She followed her husband to Stanford University, and after her return to Hanover in 1996 was elected to the state parliament in Lower Saxony in 2003. She joined Merkel's cabinet as Minister of Youth and Family Affairs in 2005, deputy leader of CDU in 2010 and Defense Minister in 2013. ...

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This report in WSJ says Mr. Musk's agreement with Twitter for the $44 billion merger had terrible timing. It comes with the future for social media companies becoming dimmer and the plunging shares in Tesla with the high inflation and the war in Ukraine hitting stocks.  It is striking that Musk around January 2022 before the invasion of Ukraine referred to Twitter as "the future of civilization," as reported by WSJ. This was typical of the hyperbole and talk typical of the last two decades that hyped up internet stocks. Musk said- "Having a public platform that is maximally trusted and broadly inclusive is extremely important for the future of civilization. I don't care about the economics at all." Twitter stock meanwhile has dropped to 20% below the price it came into public markets in 2013, now at about $35 a share. Mr. Musk agreed to buy Twitter at $54.20 a share about 50% more than it stands now. Twitter ad revenue outlook is dimming further as has happened at other social media companies and the company is now cutting jobs says the WSJ. ...

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The president says of the remarks by the former president about European countries that do not meet defense budget needs that Russia could then do what the hell it wants, that it was un-American and strange. Biden said- "History is watching. History is watching. History is watching. Failure to support Ukraine at this critical moment will never be forgotten." He also pointed out that most of the $60 billion in military aid will be spent in the United States, it will create American jobs, it will renew the defense infrastructure of the US that is needed. Senator Tillis, Republican of North Carolina also said this on the floor of the Senate in the bipartisan Senate. effort. The House of Representatives led by a small faction in the Senate has changed Speakers 3 times, and the new Speaker Mike Johnson from Louisiana lacks extensive experience and is in this role for a few months. He is now faced with deciding how to move forward even with president's call to have a vote immediately on the biparitsan approval in the Senate for $91 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan that passed 70-29 with 22 Republicans voting for. ...

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Faltering peace talks in Moscow December 2, 2025, after EU modifications of US/Russian draft developed by Witkoff with Putin adviser Dimitriev. Putin says European nations have modifed the plan and this is unacceptable to Russia. Putin says-

“All these changes are meant to do one thing. To block this entire peace process.” He said European nations were trying to hand Russia a strategic defeat. 

Because the proposals were drafted without Ukrainian involvement and involved conceding parts of eastern Ukraine there were serious doubts about the earlier plan from the EU and France, Germany, Britain.

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The US and European Union nations will move more production back home or build shorter supply chains closer to home for security reasons, says this report in FT.  The rebuilding of supply chains has begun and will continue for the rest of this decade. The coronavirus pandemic and the Ukraine invasion has only accelerated this move.

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At a time when the cost of living is increasing sharply with the war in Ukraine, and at a time when taxes are going up for ordinary British people, the Sunak story of non-dom status and not paying fair share of taxes in Britain is affecting the Conservative party's popularity. 

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Of the $2.8 trillion that is invested in global energy supplies in 2023, $1.7 trillion or 60% will be in renewable energy, according to the International Energy Agency. Every day $1 billion is invested in solar power, much more than in upstream oil projects. IEA's Birol cites president Bide's Inflation Reduction Act as a major step forward. The war in Ukraine has also has accelerated the trend to renewable energy and renewable energy technologies.

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Lael Brainard, Fed Vice Chair, is the new director of the US National Economic Council, which advises the president on economic policy and coordinates policy between executive branch agencies. The NEC director will now oversee the implementation of the infrastructure and semiconductor spending packages. WSJ says she may also have the task of managing the economic fallout from Ukraine because of her background growing up in west Germany and communist Poland as the daughter of an American diplomat.

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Two popular mayors today run the two largest cities in Turkey- Istanbul and Ankara. The two mayors Imamoglu and Yavas are part of the campaign of Republican People's party head Kilcdaroglu, which has a real opportunity to provide a new government in Turkey following the disastrous earthquake and high inflation in the economy. This would also strengthen NATO during a period following Russian invasion of Ukraine and bring Turkey closer to its historical relations with the US and EU.

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France's Macron argues that relations of the European Union with Russia that deteriorated with the Ukraine conflict should now be restored. He calls for closer relations with Russia, as Germany under Merkel continues with existing policy and a robust NATO. Merkel sees peace in the Balkans preserved by allowing Balkan countries into the European Union. Macron thinks this is not a good idea and has called NATO brain dead. Merkel and Macron now disagree on goals of NATO.

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The head of the European Union, Ursula von der Leyen, says Russia is trying to provoke a world food crisis by attacks on Ukraine ports and infrastructure, and preventing the export of 20 million tons of foodgrains. She said the EU was working to get these foodgrains out of the country. Mr. Scholz, the German chancellor on a visit to Africa, also pointed out that the Russian attacks were having serious effects with food shortages in many African countries.

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Starmer's visit to China and the result being halving of tariffs- it comes 8 years after Theresa May's visit 2018.  Starmer is following his intution  to set an independent course for Brtian's foreign policy. It makes sense as the US is using common sense in coming back to basics, to getting its own hemisphere policies right. How could there be a situation like that in Venezuela and Mexico as with the drug cartels operating as states within states- what would Teddy Roosevelt say about this? So we now have the Monroe Doctrine, the return of the Panama Canal, the restructuring of the oil industry in Venezuela, and other action. This also means Canada and UK, India, European Union can pursue policies that are common sense. It means for Britain a new openness with China after 8 years inward looking with Austerity, Brexit and Covid. For a smaller economy it makes sense for Britain to have agreements on trade as it signed with India, and now with China. Carney, Starmer and soon Merz will have worked out relations with China on trade and exchanges. For Europe and the US over concentration of making goods in China can be corrected while still engaging with China. For the EU the visits Germany's Merz made to the kite festival an India and Leyen/Costa of the EU following up with trade agreements are all part of common sense to not just reduce over concentration in China, but also to build a new partnership with India to form a 2 billion people market. All of which happened suddenly as European nations realized how to work out new arrangements following the war with Russia over Ukraine and China's support for Russia, taking up the cues from DJT common sense action in its backyard. "I'm a pragmatist, a British pragmatist, applying common sense," the prime minister tells BBC on the plane and says he wants to "make Britain face outwards again."  ...

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US and Iran accept Pakistan's mediation of the war with a 2 week ceasefire and opening of Straits of Hormuz- April 7 2026. The mediation by prime minister Sharif of Pakistan gave both sides in the war a way to back down. Both sides agreed to talks in Islamabad, Pakistan. As a partner of Pakistan, China may also have a role in setting up a settlement as China and Japan have the most to lose from the Straits of Hormuz being closed, oil prices rocketing up to $115 and higher, and even a prolonged shutdown of Hormuz Straits. Both China and Japan get 90% of their imports from Hormuz Straits. Oil prices drop to the $100 level from $115 after the announcement of talks in Islamabad. This is not a long term settlement. After the two weeks US president meets president Xi of China in Beijing shortly afterwards on May 14-15. It is likely that preparations for that trip will involve China and Pakistan working together to get the US and Iran to agree to an extension of the ceasefire. One outcome of this war is as Le Monde has noted- the unreliability of Hormuz supplies and shift to imports from US and Venezuela and other parts of the world for fossil fuels. And with this a renewed effort to reduce the fossil fuels needed by accelerating renewable energy supplies in Europe, India and China. More attention will also be focused on reducing the proliferation of nuclear weapons by all major powers. Removing US involvement in NATO may also turn out to be positive in some ways to bring Russia and US as nuclear powers to better working relationships, and reduce the nuclear arms race and weapons race. For Europe it means meeting needs of Ukraine and improving military capabilities. The overall result may be positive for all countries. The Middle East region will be seen as one in which no powers should get involved in and the Middle East will also find it has squandered its valuable oil dividend in five decades of wars and mismanagement and fall behind the rest of Asia and Europe, the US in economic progress and development. ...

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U.S. president Obama reinforces German chancellor Merkel's call for "a persistent presence in the Baltics," with a visit to Tallinin, Estonia, in September 2014. Obama told people in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia that he would work with the U.S. Congress to place more U.S. equipment in the Baltics and increase U.S. troop presence there. He stated the Baltics are "not post-Soviet" territory. Obama said at a concert hall in Tallinin about Russian support to separatists in eastern Ukraine- "It challenges the most basic principles of our international system- that borders cannot be redrawn at the barrel of a gun, that nations have the right to determine their own future. It undermines an international order where the rights of peoples and nations are upheld and cannot simply be taken away by brute force."

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US Russia relations improve in 2025. The new national security document of US put out by the DJT Administration says that Russia is not a threat.  It sticks to migration and western identities when facing civilizational erasure over next two decades as key threats to the US. It poses questions for the European Union, Germany and France, yet also offers away out of the "mess" in Ukraine with the Russians saying NATO was too close to their borders as the real issue, and the US not aligning itself with NATO reducing big power tensions including nuclear arsenal expansion. Germany rebuilding the Bundeswehr and it's military offers a rebalancing of the military situation yet is not the long term solution to the Ukraine problem, NATO limiting it's role and the US limiting it's role in NATO offers a solution that preserves the long term interests of Western Europe(Germany, France, Italy, UK, Spain) and preserves world peace and dialogue. It also promotes integration of India and Russia into the world trade and world economy as it diversifies from the dominance of China in world trade and the world economy of the last 20 years of free trade that deindustrialized US and Europe. What this national security document does not say is that China's dominance in world trade and the errors of the US, Europe, Japan, Russia, India in world trading relationships and their economic approach that made this possible is the central issue and calls for diversification of supply channels in the world economy. This shifts the direction of the world in a peaceful direction where the US, Japan and Europe, India can compete in economic growth and trade with China on equal terms. ...

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For 2025 US stocks S&P 500 returns 19%, foreign stocks in Europe 36%. An extraordinary year for foreign stocks with Germany's big investments in the economy. Actually the average S&P stock was down 3.7%. It was the large investments in AI that propelled the US stock markets S&P 500 to the 19% gain.  AI investment may take a long time to be profitable and some companies may lose money yet the building of data centers creates demand for construction activity, and tariffs are bringing larger investments into the US economy. Media skeptical about tariffs led to many missing the surge in stocks. It was the same overseas after years of Merkel and limits placed in the constitution on needed spending, and the SPD coaltition struggling to get through FDP obstruction to investment spending. Chancellor Merz of CDU joined the SPD to make a big $1 trillion investment in German infrastructure and defense, and removed the constitutional brake on investment Merkel had unwisely put in, with so much of Germany's infrastructure and digital in bad shape. This pushed up European stocks that had languished under the austerity logic of Cameron/Johnson-Merkel. This also was missed by many as the old logic was suddenly and quickly taken out with Russia emboldened in Ukraine taking over much of the eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region. Defense is now a rapidly growing part of the German economy. 2025 was a year of sudden and rapid change in the world economy with tariffs, US investment deals, and Germany taking on defense and infrastructure, which few could predict. And in which the media created confusion by saying the opposite of what was required from investors. ...

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A wonderful video on how Ukrainian refugees in Berlin are going back home some for a short time to see friends and their homes. Six buses go back and forth taking people in both directions every day says the bus driver for this bus company for Bonn to Kviv bus. There are 800,000 refugees from Ukraine in Germany. Some young women have family who are soldiers in hospitals who they will see. Most have not seen their homes for 3 months.

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Antonio Guterres was prime minister of Portugal from 1995 to 2002. As climate change action leader he plays an important role in 2022. He is interviewed here by The Guardian with a look at his role so far before COP27 opens in Egypt. Guterres became Secretary General of the United Nations in 2017. His leadership and visible presence is a source of reduction of tensions during the war in Ukraine and a source of renewed commitment during the climate change disasters of 2022.