LyrArc Article Gist
Attacks from Iran on Saudi oil infrastructure leading to a loss of half of Saudi oil production is likely to be a problem for countries such as China, South Korea and Japan that have reduced oil imports from Iran and increased dependence on Saudi supplies. This was a result of tighter U.S. oil sanctions on Iran. India is also affected. About 30% of the lost production will be restored say Saudis.  The U.S. is less dependent on Saudi supplies and as Gerald Seib points out in a video in WSJ the U.S. has 3 reasons not to intervene on behalf of Saudis. The U.S. has increased its oil production from shale oil and is less dependent on Saudi oil. It is also becoming reluctant to engage in Saudi Arabia's wars such as the one in Yemen against Houthi rebels. There is also less support in Congress and in the country for supporting endless wars that originate from Saudi actions. A Trump tweet before his election campaign shown in WSJ makes this point about endless wars and the U.S. needing to be paid trillions of dollars for these wars. The conflicts in the region affect China and India where growth is close to 5% before any impact from oil price increases. Together Asian countries take in 72% of Saudi oil exports and China now imports more Saudi oil than Russian oil by a wide margin- in June 1.88 million barrels a day. Saudi oil makes about 19% of imported oil in India and 33% for Japan. Imports into India of Saudi oil are up 8% this year to 847,000 barrels a day in 2019. China is better situated than Japan with reserve supplies of 644 days of imports compared to 230 days for Japan. This why Japan has played a constructive role in reducing tensions between the U.S. and Iran and urged both sides to negotiate. China and India also have interests that converge in reducing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. As a first step president Trump removed his National Security Adviser John Bolton in preference for reduced tensions.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US Senate increases debt limit increase to $5.1 trillion from House 3B Tax Cuts Bill debt limit of $4.1 trillion in 2025. The Big Bold Beautiful Bill as the president calls it will also make the debt limit increase permanent to avoid the brinksmanship of earlier administrations. Republicans will pass this as they assume the mantle of working for the average middle class and working class household. Republicans have taken up the cause of small businesses in the US who are supported by this bill. The bill in the view of Treasury Secretary Bessent helps growth of the economy through its 100% expensing provisions, so that the capital expenditures spending of small and large businesses on equipment and buildings that is now held up will take place  rapidly in the coming year. The 3B Tax Cuts Bill does decrease the taxes of the higher income households, yet it also decreases the taxes of small business owners, and of people in the middle income range. Similar bills in the Reagan period led to a larger share of national income going to a majority of the population, and increasing growth and investment. This bill's expensing provisions goes a step further to release capex energies. During the Carter period before Reagan and the Biden period before Trump's second term the lower income classes were cheated out of their income's propensity for a better standard of living by inflation. Republican administration of DJT has focused on inflation to help working class people and focused on capital investment to generate the growth that will increase jobs. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The G20 declaration from Indonesia says that it "is essential to uphold international law and the multilateral system that safeguards peace and stability." It called the threat of use of nuclear weapons "inadmissable." It said "most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine." Overall this was a major step forward with meetings between Biden and Xi, Trudeau and Xi of China, and discussions that led to Macron of France announcing his intention to visit China to get China to mediate for peace in Ukraine. It sets the path forward after Covid pandemic for peaceful cooperation in places other than Ukraine and efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to a close. The midterms in the US Congress also set the stage for Mr. Biden to offer a stable US participation after the volatile Trump years in peaceful competition with China, and growth in India, Africa, and other parts of Asia and Latin America.

LyrArc Article Gist
China's military drills around Taiwan have an unintended effect of creating a shift in American and European sentiment on the overconcentration of US and EU investment in China. Business in Germany and in the US has operated for a long time in the Merkel and Bush-Obama-Trump administrations a if this overconcentration which hurt workers and communities in both the EU and the US did not matter as long as the interests of the individual companies was met. Mr. Biden's policy takes an entirely different approach to protect American workers, rebuild American manufacturing, rebuild infrastructure, and to build America's leadership in the world. The military drills only increase the awareness in America of the risks and dangers of the positions taken by previous administrations. Shifting sentiment to back president Biden's strong steps to rebuild America and American leadership.

LyrArc Article Gist
In this excellent report from the WSJ reporters talk to people in key counties in battleground states. Issues people see as important are covered to get a feel for how they think. The four topics on people's minds are-

1.  Business and the Economy

2.  Race and Policing

3. Climate

4. Agriculture and Trade

5. Coronavirus

President Trump has popular support for work on the economy, and in agriculture and trade. He faces criticism for the surge in the coronavirus cases during the second wave.

States selected for understanding people's views and thinking- In Pennsylvania, Philadelphia county. In Wisconsin, Sauk County. In Michigan Macomb and Wayne counties. In Florida Lee county. In Georgia, Peach county. In North Carolina, Watauga county. In Arizona, Maricopa county. Other states include Maine, Iowa, and Colorado.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Biden administration is the first administration in decades to do this to protect American industry and industry of other manufacturing capable nations such as India, in effect protecting a whole new supply chain that allows all to participate but non to dominate unfairly. The Bush, Trump, Obama administrations failed to do this. A concern most economists and many business leaders fail to understand to the great misfortune of America's workers and communities and workers and communities in other nations. As the US restricted flow of technologies in advanced chips to China to protect its tecnologies, China is investing $40 billion in mature chips. The Biden administration is now shifting its attention to mature chips technologies to protect American chip industry and prevent overproduction of mature chips in China for export leading to dumping of the product in the US and hitting the domestic chip industry hard.

LyrArc Article Gist
See the president respond in this video in the WSJ. He says look what we have done in getting all the legislation passed to rebuild the economy. It took all the wisdom, intelligence and experience to do what no president has been able to accomplish in the decades since the 1960's- to have the courage and wisdom to disengage from wars in remote parts of the world that started from the Reagan-Bush period that were carried on through the Bush-Obama-Trump administrations. And to use the contacts in the Senate developed over decades for bipartisan efforts to rebuild America with trillions of dollars in capital investment, the kind of rebuilding that took place in the Truman-Eisenhower and Kennedy administrations in the 1950's and 1960's following the war. After the pandemic similar to after the War in 1945, the whole world needs the leadership of America to set a new path, to faith in a better future.

LyrArc Article Gist
Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama campaign together in swing states such as North Carolina. Hillary Clinton capitalizes on the surging popularity of Michelle Obama, who has a 64%  approval rating, according to Gallup, 10 points more than president Obama, and above Hillary's 43 percent. Both women show a mutual admiration and sisterhood as they campaign together with rising crowd enthusiasm. For Michelle her unprecedented effort as First Lady is a result of the dirty campaign fought by Donald Trump to turn off voters to the political process, and her effort is meant to counter this. She says about this demeaning of women, "Enough is enough." Both women are drawn together with a campaign for a woman as president. And the slogan coined by Michelle has taken off  "When they go low, we go high." It has energized the very African American and millenial voters that have played an effective role in previous Democratic campaigns.

LyrArc Article Gist
Donald Trump says of Susie Wiles who transformed his campaign with quiet determined old style demeanor-

"Susie just helped me achieve one of the greatest political victories in American history. She is tough, smart, innovative, and is universally admired and respected. It is a well deserved honor to have Susie as the first-ever female chief of staff in United States history. I have no doubt that she will make our country proud.”

Suzie says-

"There are changes we must live with in order to get done the things we’re trying to do."

“In my early career things like manners mattered and there was an expected level of decorum." From Lincoln to Eisenhower there was this level of decorum.

"And so I get it that the GOP (Republican party) of today is different."

LyrArc Article Gist
Anxieties about illegal immigration and cost of living propel Trump to a win in the 2024 presidential elections. He wins more votes from younger people, from rural voters, and from Latinos, black people without a college degree. 

Paradoxically the end of the pandemic, vaccines, and improvement in health care may have led to voters focusing on the cost of living as an element that was not tackled under the Biden administration. Housing and grocery costs were allowed to surge and tech monopolies operated as before. Even union leaders were not fully convinced about Democratic support because of the changes in the Democratic party since Clinton. 

A general sense of unease about immigration was not tackled early on in the Biden administration first 2 years when the surge from Venezuela became evident following the collapse of its economy. 

 

LyrArc Article Gist
By large margins voters have favorable opinions of Harris and Walz. For 52% of the WSJ survey Harris has the right temperament to be president, for Trump this was 42%. 40% of voter sample have unfavorable views of Walz compared to 50% for Vance. 82% of the voter sample say they know enough information about Harris to make a firm opinion. Even though media presents it as people not so familiar with Harris. A big difference is seen in views about Project 2025- only 9% have favorable views of Project 2025 that would terminate civil servants, restrict abortion access, and end the Department of Education. 57% have unfavorable views of Project 2025, 53% very unfavorable views.

These are general trends. Harris is changing perceptions on her handling of the economy and cost of living by outlining her plans for specific action on housing, child care and food costs.

LyrArc Article Gist
European has a completely different perception of events in Europe than the US which has distanced itself. EU president Von der Leyen says- “A new era is upon us. Europe faces a clear and present danger on a scale that none of us has seen in our adult lifetime … We are living in the most momentous and dangerous of times.” And it is has the room in its budgets and the willpower to back it up without US help. $30-$40 billion in EU aid to Ukraine when US aid to Ukraine ended this week by the DJT Trump administration. Part of the $650 billion in new defense spending found in the space left from lower spending for decades of less than 2%, from an increase of 1.5% in spending on defense. And the $150 in loans from joint EU borrowing on capital markets.

LyrArc Article Gist
Infosys built its business on outsourcing by U.S. business. President Trump's executive order to "Buy American, Hire American" is changing the way it does business. Infosys plans to hire 10,000 software engineers in the U.S. by 2019. 

A big change is also coming from new technologies in computing that require small teams to work side by side with customers. This is best done by having software engineers in U.S. offices and not engineers in offices thousands of miles away. A president of Infosys says this is the new face of computing at Infosys.

LyrArc Article Gist
The first use of chemical agents in Europe since 1945 in the poisoning of a former Russian spy led to strong coordinated action by the European Union countries, Germany, Britain and France with the U.S. Trump administration. This NYT report shows how the action was taken and the meetings of Macron, Theresa May and Merkel that led to strong action. Because Russia is energy supplier to Europe and the Social Democrats in Germany as part of a coalition in Germany not favoring strong action earlier governments in the EU shied away from such action.

LyrArc Article Gist
Trump DJT efforts to seek discussions and agreement with Russia and China yields results in Israel- Iran war. Biden's single focus on Ukraine that put Russia at a distance, and failure to build dialogue with sincere disagreement with China as DJT has done, can be seen as a failure of US obligations as a world power. The DJT approach gives Russia and China an opportunity to reflect on their obligations as world powers, to their people and the people of the world, so that they pursue national aspirations keeping this always in mind uppermost.

LyrArc Article Gist
In September 2015 Jeb Bush's support in a WSJ/NBC poll drops to 7%. Walker drops out of the race. Trump and Carson are tied, and Rubio is the only elected official in double digits for the Republicans. Hillary Clinton's popularity declines following the email controversy.

LyrArc Article Gist
This editorial in the WSJ after the New Hampshire primary, points out that the attacks by Republican candidates on each other instead of educating voters on Donald Trump, will only lead to them falling behind. During the Republican television debate the sharp exchange between Christie and Rubio hurt both candidates in New Hampshire. It says that one of Trump's important weakness is that one third of the voters who voted for Trump have reservations about him. Trump was also lagging behind in voter confidence in his ability to handle an international crisis. Ted Cruz was not able to win big with non evangelical voters in a state on the East coast, which would affect him as a Republican nominee in November 2016. It also points out that voter perceptions about Sanders are changing- voters may now see a "socialist" as electable, if Republicans can nominate a person with no serious credentials and a volatile temperament. Voters may also now see Clinton having electability problems of her own with the email controversy, and voter skepticism about her honesty and trustworthiness. The Democratic Party has shifted in the Obama years- with exit polls showing 7 of 10 Democrats in the New Hampshire primary saying they are liberals, and one fourth "very liberal." ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Kristof of the NYT says the narrative about Hillary Clinton being dishonest is clearly overdone and inaccurate. He says the gaffes about the use of personal email server have unfairly created a distorted narrative. On changing positions on trade and minimum wage- this happens frequently with all the candidates. Some are glib enough for not being noticed, Clinton not a natural politician drawing attention. On Libya, and on Syria, Clinton is blamed for the President's errors and not given credit for pushback in league with Panetta, Gen. Kean and Gen. Jones, that has influenced changes made in 2016, and the president accepting blame for errors. In this instance Clinton has been far from shifty by publicly allying herself with Leon Panetta's position in "Worthy Fights," and Gen. Jones's remarks. Far from having erred on Libya and Syria policy, Hillary Clinton, like Chuck Hagel and others in the administration including Joe Biden, showed exceptional patience in dealing with the president, national security advisor, and McDonough in policy matters- when they were right but the country was weary of what were seen as futile global engagements in remote areas setting too high a bar for any action. Clinton rightly described this as a pendulum swinging too far in the opposite direction after the Bush/Cheney years. On young women and being "progressive" Hillary Clinton is from a older generation that experienced the kind of discrimination that young women fail to grasp, according to a recent analysis of University of Massachusetts polling survey results cited in the Washingon Post. A PolitiFact Pulitzer winning fact checking site shows 50% of the Clinton statments are either true or mostly true, compared to 49% for Bernie Sanders, 9 percent for Trump, 22% for Ted Cruz, and 52% for John Kasich. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The purchase of F/A-18 aircraft by Germany capable of delivering nuclear weapons stationed in Germany is critical to keeping the nuclear deterrance and the "nuclear sharing" agreement with the U.S. Older aircraft, the Tornadoes are now 40 years old. Chancellor Merkel has supported the purchase but this is now being called into question by its junior partner in the coalition government the SPD.  Leaders of the SPD party say they would block the purchase of 45 Boeing Company made F/A-18 jets proposed by Merkel's defense minister. Under NATO's nuclear sharing agreement going back to the 1950's it is believed there are about 180 B61 tactical nuclear bombs in rope, some 20 in Germany and spread out over Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. President Trump has said the U.S. will withdraw from a treaty with Russia that limits the presence of nuclear missiles in Europe because Russia is not living up to the agreement. This could lead to an arms race. The issue is leading to the beginning of a fundamental debate about nuclear armanent and military spending of a type that has not happened in Europe since 1982 when a rebellion in the SPD over the stationing of nuclear weapons in Europe led to the ouster of Chancellor Helmut Schmidt.  The Christian Democrats view the purchase of the F/A-18 at a time when Russia is updating its nuclear deterrance as fundamental to NATO and nuclear sharing. The SPD's leaders say nuclear sharing does not mean the need to host nuclear weapons, and give the example of Canada, a NATO ally that does not have U.S. weapons on its soil. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. Senator Ben Sasse suggests an alternative approach of simply repealing the Affordable Care Act called Obamacare and replacing it at a later date. This is endorsed by president Trump. This is the new Republican strategy in July 2017. Forty nine senators voted in favor of this repeal in 2015, when president Obama vetoed this legislation. Two more senators are expected to support repeal according to Ben Sasse.