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Some estimates of the cost of the Iran War for the US are about $13 billion over 10 days of the war. US president DJT asks Congress for $200 billion to finance the war. Iran refuses to back down on the closing of the Straits of Hormuz. Much of the oil going through the Straits of Hormuz goes to Asia, 90% from Kharg Island in Iran goes to China. Oil from the UAE goes through the Straits to Japan and India.

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US inflation drops to 6% in February 2023 from 6.4% in January. It is the smallest increase since September 2021. Shelter costs rose at 0.8% matching the largest gain since the 1980's. Elsewhere costs increased at at a lower pace for food and gasoline, consumers paid less to heat homes, and prices for used cars, medical services fell. A significant impact on growth is shown for Europe from the drop in oil prices to $77 from a peak of $121 adding as much as 1 to 2 percentage points to growth. A similar impact is expected in the US by keeping prices of oil lower through increase in alternative sources of oil, US increasing oil production, and significantly increased investment in renewable sources. This will help reverse the effects of the Ukraine war on world food and energy supplies and prices through constructive action by the US and its partners in the European Union.

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Efforts to build air defense systems for Guam, American base 1300 miles east of the Philippines. China has stockpiled missiles that could reach Guam, says this report in the WSJ. There are 150,000 American civilians in Guam, which is an island the size of Chicago. As Guam is entirely American the US can operate from Guam in a manner that it cannot do from Okinawa or other bases in the Pacific, or in South Korea. About 50,000 Americans are based at Okinawa, Japan. US has 22,000 military personnel on Guam island. Guam played a critical role in the early days of the Pacific War with Japan and after it was retaken from the Japanese.

This is becoming important as the US faces the prospect of being able to help protect Taiwan's independence, and protect free navigation on seas in the Indo-Pacific region that extends from Africa to India and Australia and to western US.

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The German parliament will try to set an example by turning down thermostats to 20 degrees centigrade from 22 centigrade and turning off hot water boilers that provide warm water to the wash basins. There are 736 MP's and 5000 parliamentary staff in government buildings in the government district of Berlin.The CDU wants all ministries to follow this example. Only 63% of reserve supply storage is filled in Germany for gas that heats the country in winter and a cutoff of Russian gas supplies could happen at any time.

Chancellor Scholz says an average family of four could have energy bills this winter go up significantly calling it "social dynamite." One estimate is for it to go up by 2000 euros per year for a family of four. Vonovia, Germany's largest residential landlord says it will turndown thermostats to maximum of 17 degrees centigrade in winter.

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Turkey faces a economic crisis driven by high inflation and sharp decline of over 40% in the lira. The ENAgrup research group estimates inflation at 58% in November over the prior year, higher than the 22% official figures. ENAGrup estimates 50% inflation in October and 45% inflation in September. The steep inflation say experts is a result of an unconventional policy of president Erdogan to lower interest rates by 2%. In contrast the Russian central bank increased interest rates by about 3%, Brazil's central bank by about 6%. This report looks at two weak links for the lira and inflation prospects with graphs.  One is that the debt of Turkish banks is heavily in foreign currency debt with $82 billion due in next 12 months. A weak lira makes it harder to pay off these debts. Turkey's central bank net foreign assets taking into account all foreign currency liabilities is a negative $48 billion in Oct 2021, according to graphs shown in WSJ. The second is that Turkey's people are fleeing the lira. Nearly 60% of banking deposits are now in foreign currencies, according to data from Capital Economics. A sudden surge in requests to withdraw dollars by Turkish residents could make banks to draw down their foreign currency reserves. The government hopes that increase in exports could help Turkey in the crisis yet the situation today as shown by WSJ suggests a continuation of the current crisis of spiraling inflation and large drops in the lira's value. ...

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The extraordinary story of Nadhim Zahawi who came to the UK as a child fleeing Iraq in the seventies with his parents. His grandfather was the governor of the Central Bank of Iraq. He says he survived by coming to Britain as he might have been killed in the Iran- Iraq war of the 1980's. He started life in Sussex and studied at the University College of London. In 2018 he was made Education minister by Theresa May. He continued under Boris Johnson as Education Minister, and in 2020 took the position of Vaccine Rollout minister.In July 2022 he was appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer to replace Rishi Sunak.

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Most of the Aeroflot and Russian airlines fleet of planes are now grounded. The action was taken by the Russian government to prevent the seizure of Russian planes in overseas locations. 515 of 865 planes in Russian commercial airlines are under leasing arrangements, with companies leasing the planes seeking to repossess the planes as soon as possible.

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Not a cash sinkhole- Apple generates 25% of its revenue of 383 billion from the EU. A $13 bill tax bill is for taxes due and a $1.4 billion fine insignificant fine for Apple's size. Apple is not just device maker. Also an apps platform taking a percentage of revenues on its Apps store.

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Higher savings, covid assistance checks, and cheap credit led to higher consumer spending in the second half of 2020. This lasted through the higher inflation in 2022 when consumer spending outpaced inflation by two percentage points. The share of monthly income set aside for savings dropped from a high in April 2020, to 7.5% in December 2021, to 3.4% in December 2022. This is rapidly reversing with increase in mortgage rates and interest rates by the Fed to 4.75%, home and car sales the lowest in a decade. Inflation is at 5% year over year and wages up 4.6% in December year over year. The labor market is tight with about 10 million unfilled jobs and unemployment at 3.4%. Tech and other companies that overly expanded during the pandemic and are under antitrust oversight are laying off some employees. A recession is possible but this depends on how Jay Powell at the Fed reads the employment situation so that it brings down inflation but not so much that it hurts American workers. ...

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Large investments in infrastructure by president Biden with bipartisan support in Congress is having positive effects. New technologies and rising pay in the trades is leading to many young people joining it instead of the college route as the US rebuilds itself from scratch in the third decade of the 21st century.

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In his plain talk on Syria Trump said the primary message to Russia was: "You should have peace in Syria; its enough." This is the message foreign minister Tillerson is delivering in Moscow. He described the Russian support for the Syrian government as: "I think it's very bad for Russia, I think it's very bad for mankind, it's very bad for this world." He also described Chinese president Xi Jinping's response at a state dinner during dessert when Trump told him about the U.S. missile attack on Syrian airfield, as expressing the sentiment that it was OK considering the chemical attacks by the Syrian government on civilians and children. The closest any president gets to the plain talk given by Trump is during the period of the Cold War when Truman also had this kind of plain talking style to deliver the message that needed to be heard.

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Being able to do the yoga pose of standing on one foot for ten seconds or twenty seconds is very important for your health. The one legged prayer pose is one of the most important of the yoga poses and one that will be done everywhere on World Yoga Day.

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Tokyo has the reputation for being the city with the longest working hours. Overwork leading to death has a term for it in Japan- "karoshi." But this is changing. Recent studies show Mumbai as the city with the longest working hours per worker per year at 3315 hours. The Japanese government had a law passed this year limiting legal overtime work to 45 hours a month, with an extension in busy periods to 100 hours for a maximum of 6 months. Yet the culture is taking time to change, even though long hours often leads to low productivity. It does not mean productivity is high in Mumbai or Tokyo. Dublin, Ireland has one of the highest productivity scores, workers in Dublin worked 1856 hours a year and still created $84 in GDP every hour- compared to this in Mexico City the third hardest working city had only $18 in GDP per hour. This is calculated by dividing GDP by the hours worked. Occupational health psychologists say working longer hours can be less productive because of the drain on performance, resulting in poor concentration, memory and compromised problem solving and creativity. The lack of rest means resources are not replenished with rest, and can deteriorate physical and mental health. Singapore a fairly liveable city has the highest percentage of people working more than 48 hours per week, in a Kisi study. Suggestion for work life balance include taking holidays and short breaks, and switching off from work mentally, using mindfulness and meditation. Practicing self-compassion and prioritizing self-care is needed. ...

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Mexico replaces China as the U.S. top trading partner in the first half of 2019. U.S. imports from China fell by 12% and exports fell by 19% in first half 2019, according to Commerce Department. The total value of trade with China of $271 billion was less than the trade with either Canada or Mexico.

Mr. Trump said yesterday to China- "If they don't want to trade with us anymore, that would be fine with me. Until such time as there is a deal we will be taxing them." He went on to say he would place 25% tariff on additional $300 billion of Chinese goods on Sept. 1, 2019.

Meanwhile in first half 2019 the U.S. imports increased to 34% from Vietnam. Some of this could be Chinese goods transhipment through Vietnam. Japan, South Korea, India, Europe, all increased exports to the U.S.

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Studies at the University of Padova in Italy and by France's research agency INSERM show higher risks of dementia from retiring early. The INSERM study shows that for every additional year worked we reduce the risk of dementia by 3.2 percent. Retiring at age 50 is considered very, very poor decision, and before 60 very poor decision, as cognitive development, mood, and active engagement with work offering complexity, all relate to good mental health. Countries like U.S. and Denmark where people tend to work for longer than in France and Austria are shown to be doing significantly better in cognitive performance in a 2010 study published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives. The Italian study shows the longer you spend in retirement the higher the risks of cognitive decline.

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The US sends aircraft carrier group of the US 7th fleet with the aircraft carrier USS Reagan and destroyers on a freedom of navigation mission through the South China Sea. What is a freedom of navigation mission and what is the US goal? "Our presence in the Pacific is to demonstrate our commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific," says commanding officer of the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, Captain Fred Goldhammer. Seen on a map the Paracel Islands are far from China's coast. They lie on the waters further south in the South China Sea closer to the coast of Vietnam and between Vietnam and the Philippines. Till 1974 the Paracel Islands were part of Vietnam. In that year China took control of these islands after a war with Vietnam. The name Paracel is of Portuguese origin on maps in the 16th century. There are 130 islands or reefs with total area of about 3 square miles spread out over about 6000 square miles of ocean in the middle of the South China Sea near the coast of Vietnam. The French had  weather station there in 1932. After independence South Vietnam controlled the islands. In 1974 the islands were taken over by China from Vietnam. The result is that by taking over the islands China put itself in the position it is in Tibet. In Tibet it has put itself right across the Himalayas in a position that interferes with security on the border with India in the Himalayas that for centuries almost going back to Buddhist times 2500 years ago had very little and most of the time no Chinese presence. The passes in the Tibetan region are at heights over 15,000 feet that were mostly inaccessible except by yaks and other animals for transport for most of the 2500 year period. This is true also of the Paracel and other islands in the South China Sea as they are right in the middle of the seas of open navigation used by traders before the coming of the Europeans and for ocean going trade since 1500. Britain and the US have enjoyed free and open navigation in these oceans which connect past the Philippines into the Pacific to the Japanese islands and on to Hawaii and the US Pacific coast. What the US and European allies are saying is that the free and open navigation of the seas has always been the case for the last thousand years in the Pacific. The taking of the islands in 1974 by China from Vietnam now put it up against the US and European allies, and their Asian allies, as it interferes with navigation in the open seas essential for trade and travel between Asia and the Pacific. This is how the Chinese invasion of Tibet and the taking over of the Paracel Islands have put China into the position of interfering in the normally open and free areas in the Himalayas and the Pacific. This is where the Quad group shares a common interest in preserving what always existed in history-  a free and open Pacific and a free and open Himalayas. It brings together the US, Japan, India and Australia which stretch all the way from the Himalayas and the Indian Ocean uninterrupted all the way through Indonesia to Australia and Japan and the US. From the Mediterranean through Egypt into the Indian Ocean all the way to the Pacific and the US keeping free and open seas for trade and navigation. Or across the Cape of Good Hope into the Indian Ocean and the Pacific to the US. ...

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Geetanjali Shree win the International Booker prize for the best fiction novel translated from other languages into English. Her book Reti Samadhi is about an older woman coping with the effects of the 1947 partition of India and has what Geetanjali Shree calls the meandering mind of women spanning 725 pages in Hindi. "Woman are stories in themselves, full of stirrings and whisperings that float in the wind, that bend with each blade of grass," says Shree in the opening pages of the novel. Shree writes about a teenager who goes through the traumatic experience of partition as a teenager and experiencing depression at an older age decides to confront the experience by going to the place where it happened a second time. Shree is from Mainpuri, Uttar Pradesh (UP).  UP a Hindi speaking state is getting into the international field as the experiences of the region are being shared in other languages. It is now at the forefront of rapid development in India under the Modi administration and a state administration that sees India's largest state in an international context. Bringing Hindi, its tone and rhythm, and the style and exuberance of the author to a English reader, is a challenge that was handled well by Daisy Rockwell of the US. ...

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Demand slipping in Europe for German cars as China with overcapacity puts more cars into EU markets, including Germany. Millions of jobs may be at stake and many production facilities may need to be closed. About 3 million jobs in Germany are dependent on the German car market.

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A look at the Torrevieja plant for desalinated water in the NYT by Reed and Chaundler. The plant uses solar energy to cut the cost. Spain is a leader in this technology. The use of desalinated water is expecially useful in places like Saudi Arabia and the Emirates with plenty of sunshine for solar energy and demand for water in cities located near the sea.

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History is in your hands,” Mr. Biden tells the nation on July 24, 2024. “The power is in your hands. The idea of America lies in your hands. We just have to keep faith, keep the faith, and remember who we are.”

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Where does US president DJT get his "good genetics" for his health? It comes from his mother's side where for generations his grandparents and previous generations were fisherman on the shores of the northern British Isles islands. Specifically Tong, a village on the island of Lewis in Scotland. These were rugged coastlines where fisherman fought hard to make a living in the 19th century. His mother immigrated from Scotland to the US as a young girl seeking a better life. She later married a up and coming builder of homes in New York state.

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"Escalation" is the word used which ignores that more American lives have been lost to fentanyl and drug trafficking in the US over the last 15 years than in the Korean, Vietnam and First World War combined. How could this have been allowed to happen is a question for all Americans.

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Ways in which the war is affecting young men in Ukraine ages 18-23 years. Boys were not allowed to leave the country when they reached 18 leading to boys leaving the coutnry. Now the age is changed from 18 years to 23 years. There are more older people at the front in Ukraine.