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The Economist offers this exceptional account of how education makes a big difference in how two cities one hours train ride from London view exit from the European Union. Both have younger than average populations, are growing rapidly, and mostly white collar populations. Cambridge has one in two persons who have gone to university study, Peterbrough is predominantly a city of school leavers, one has many people who have studied till age 21, the other Peterborough where many people left school at age 16. Cambridge it shows is strongly pro-EU, Peterborough is euro skeptic. YouGov confirms the correlation with education of EU support, with the better educated graduates supporting EU membership 62% to 38%, less educated till age 16 43% supporting EU membership and 57% opposing. It says skills for a globalizing compettitive economy and the lack of these skills are creating two types of population with less and less room between them, not good for democracy, and something that will take decades of work to correct....

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Gerry Adams of Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland says in the NYT that some way has to be found to respect the vote of 55% in Northern Ireland in favor of remaining in the European Union. He says Northern Ireland and Scotland should not be made to leave the EU because of a different preference expressed in England and Wales. He points to one of the most harmful effects of the Brexit i- the return to a hard  border between the EU state of Ireland and Northern Ireland. This will affect the economic, healthcare, tourism, business and cultural links of Ireland in the north and south, and reverses the gains of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. He calls it a result of factional infighting in the Tory party, the rise of far right anti immigrant groups such as UKIP, and the Gove faction which never really supported the peace deal in Ireland that has brought two decades of peace. Adams says concurrent referendums for a united Ireland is one solution to this problem. Another is an All Ireland forum of political parties and civic partners to meet, and for the Irish Government to stand behind the Good Friday Agreement, so that the Brexit does not hurt the interests of Ireland as a whole. ...

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Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, is coming under increasing criticism for supporting the Conservative-Liberal coalition government's austerity plan, and for lack of efforts to fight inflationary pressures. On a major issue on which King has taken a clear stand- that the largest British banks should increase capital levels exceeding the international standards- not much has happened. Consumer prices in Britain were up at a 3.7% annual rate in December, and the government's austerity policies will also cause pain. In a recent speech King said that the Bank of England had limited ability to fight the higher unemployment and increased inflation. It was an admission of the limits of central bankers in the current situation. King said "a squeeze in living standards is the inevitable price to pay for the financial crisis and the subsequent rebalancing of the UK and world economies.

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Demographic trends and Muslim populations around the world. some of the fastest growing populations are in Pakistan, India, Nigeria. Slower growth in Indonesia. In Europe faster growth in Spain and France relative to other countries. The Muslim popullation in Europe will be about 10% in places like Sweden and France in 2030. Where multiculturalism has been denounced, in Germany the Muslim population grows from 5% in 2010 to 7% in 2030, and a little over 4% to 8% in Britain. In France it goes up from close to 8% to a little over 10% in 2030. This is from research and forecasts done by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life in January 2011. It does not suggest a huge problem especially if the Muslim populations are affected by the trend to democracy in their home countries and improving standards of living, and a move towards integration in the different societies in Europe.

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David Brooks of the NYT describes the approach taken by British prime minister David Cameron and his Conservative Party government to help the working class poor in Britain, and tackle the social roots of poverty. He says an American adaptation similar to this is badly needed in the Republican Party, with the candidates in the election providing solutions from an old rulebook. Only after Trump's popularity with appeals to less educated older Americans has the Republican leadership responded, with Speaker Ryan helping organize a forum on poverty under the Jack Kemp Foundation- emphasis was placed on education, work, opportunity and accountability for anti-poverty programs in the discussion moderated by Ryan and Senator Tim Scott. Less attention was paid to the other social aspects mentioned here by Brooks, and cited by Cameron when he described the inadequacy of traditional solutions from the right and left of the political spectrum. Cameron outlined the principles of his anti-poverty plans called "Life Chances Strategy," in a speech on Jan. 11, 2016, in north London, with the entrie transcript on the gov.uk website. Cameron acknowledged in the speech that social issues including single parent families, and other social problems such as long term unemployment, can make it harder for some people to use self-reliance and personal responsibility in a growing economy as a way to grasp opportunities. Cameron proposes a combination of economic, social and job growth strategies. His second term plans include 30 hours a week of free childcare for 3 and 4 year olds so both parents can work, parental maternity leave, expansion of Troubled Families Program, in addition to the introduction of National Living Wage, tax cuts, universal credit. In tackling social aspects of the problem Cameron cited the need for development in the early years of childhood, the huge importance of family, social connections and experiences, informal mentors, cultural experiences, broadenend horizons, that enable young people to acquire language skills, character and resilience. Second term projects include expanding reach of high performing schools to deprived areas, emphasis on core English, math, science, history, geography Ebacc skills, a 1 billion pound investment in the National Citizens Service by 2021, a plan to transform housing estates including rebuilding from scratch, additional 1 billion pounds to provide mental health treatment including treatment within 2 weeks in homes and communities. Throughout Cameron's "Life Chances strategy" is aimed at tackling not just the material dimensions of poverty, but also what he describes is broken in Britain- "the paucity of opportunity."...

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Macron is keen on making this trip to Britain his first overseas after the pandemic. Earlier during the pandemic Macron on May 17 visited a battlefield in northern France for a battle in which De Gaulle took part. On this trip he will go to Clarence House, home of Prince Charles, to commemorate the June 18, 1940 speech given by De Gaulle, a moment which gave birth to the French resistance.

Macron is eager to associate his presidency with memories of De Gaulle, the resistance and France during wartime, as it recovers from the pandemic. This also coincides with his meeting with Merkel, the German chancellor, after Germany announced the 500 billion euros grants to small and medium sized businesses in Europe as a show of solidarity and faith in the vision for Europe.

 

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Except in Britain where there is concern about the government's handing of the crisis in nursing homes most European leaders have improved their standing with voters with their coronavirus response. Public confidence has increased for Germany's Merkel, Italy's Conte, France's Macron, and Spain's Sanchez. France's Macron enjoys a personal popularity rating of 44% and satisfaction with his government's response has increased to 42%, after a decline in mid-April when there was a jump in cases. In Italy satisfaction with the government response is at 66%, and Conte remains popular. Mr. Sanchez's response to the coronavirus crisis in Spain is approved by 46% of voters. Most European leaders have shown unity and composure in the crisis, strengthening the community spirit in the European Union.

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The 32 billion pound bid by the Hong Kong Exchange for the London Stock Exchange is not likely to be viewed favorably by regulators. There is already a bid for the London Stock Exchange that is being reviewed. As The Times puts it "it provides a stern test of the British government's appetite for foreign acquisition of strategic assets."

The London Stock Exchange is making an all share offer for Refinitiv, with the strategy to build a financial data business. That would make Blackstone and Thomson Reuters major shareholders.  The Hong Kong government owns 6% of the Hong Kong Exchange. 

The London Stock Exchange has a long history and is a strategic asset for Britain so that the Hong Kong bid is seen as a bit strange considering that the strategy is different for Refinitiv.

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Corruption in Greece, just as the Greek economy burdened with some of the largest debt in the European Union. The threatens to weaken the EU with the prospect of Germany and other countries having to help Greece avoid adefault on its debt. This would only draw markets attention to other economies like ireland, Britain and Italy which are also burdened with large debt.

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The rate rigging for foreign exchange rates by major banks leads to a legal settlement in Nov. 2014. The Financial Conduct Authority of Britain fines major banks 1.1 billion pounds. CFTC of the U.S. fined the banks $1.4 billion, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency imposed a fine of $950 million, and Swiss regulators a fine of $138 million.

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WSJ's Greg Ip points out the realities on the ground for housing inflation- Austin 11% higher prices for housing 2020-2024, for NYC 20%, supply up 17% in Austin NYC only 3%. Austin avoided rent control route in elections even when prices were up 23% in 1 year, rent control freeze is not allowed in Texas. Prices eventually dropped as supply increased. This is a warning sign for NYC primary winner Mamdani's rent freeze and rent control in NYC. This is not to say that landlords have to get their act together and fix homes, and moderate pricing. It is to say that the supply of housing matters and adding supply to housing as the British Labor government is doing in Britain under a socialist/private enterprise oriented government matters. For this to happen a comprehensive policy is needed cutting time to build reducing permit times, and incentivising builders, as well as cutting costs, and building affordable housing. It is a reflection of the degree of desperation that New Yorkers- created by the same educated and the professional workers among them, the rich and the elites- that the vast number of young college educated people are now pushing free buses, rent freeze, and city run grocery stores. And so little discussion is taking place on the comprehensive plan to increase supply of housing and building the new infrastructure in a city where roads and pavements, whole neighborhood infrastructures are crumbling as in Brooklyn. So little discussion on creating a rising tide that lifts all boats. ...

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Keir Starmer of Britain gets the support and good wishes of Modi, Trudeau and Albanese in the Commonwealth, and of Scholz in Germany and the European Union, after his landslide win. Scholz said in Berlin of Starmer: "I know Keir Starmer personally. We have often met and spoken with each other. He will be a very successful prime minister, of that I am convinced." Spain's Sanchez talked about working together based on "the values we share." And Trudeau of Canada said "lets get to it my friend."

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Whether it is so called right or centre or left parties, their is a no nonsense approach to immigration in 2024. Across all parts of Europe from Denmark , Germany and Britain with socialist parties, to Italy and France with centre right, there is tough action on immigration. In the US both Harris and Trump are also taking tough action for law and order based immigration. With Harris calling for the swift passage of Republican Lankford's immigration legislation stalled in the US Congress that ends asylum loopholes and closes the US Border.

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Pope Francis makes atonement for the treatment of 150,000 tribal children from Canada's Indian tribes in Quebec and Ontario. These children were separated from their families in a program of forced assimilation that failed. Indian tribal people and the regions of Quebec and Ontario are only now coming to terms with the treatment of tribal people who inhabited this land for centuries before the first European settlers from Britain and France arrived in North America through the Atlantic ocean voyages. This scene is relevant as India's leaders including Mr. Modi select a tribal woman from Odisha (Orissa) Ms Murmu a school teacher in India's northeast to the position of president of the Republic of India. It was never thought of this way yet tribal people exist in Indonesia, Philippines and many parts of Asia. In India tribe population is 106 million and makes up anywhere between 8 to 30% of population mostly in the northeast and tribes are the dominant population in the border regions facing China in its occupation of Tibetan region. This shows there is a lot to learn in how to respect the dignity of the people in these regions especially now when with climate change  sustainable living is the first priority.  ...

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GST is to India what land sales were for China in its phase of rapid development and accelerated growth. It consolidated capital that could be then invested at the national and state levels on infrastructure, logistics for exports growth, creating a virtuous cycle of capital growth that could finance ever widening scale of development projects from metros, subways, rail, roads, bridges, airports, ports, logistics, tech related improvements. This was done in 2017 through a midnight session of parliament that passed the legislation needed. Years of endless discussion were turned into one session of implementing a single major tax system for India, transparent, digitized with new IT  Infosys playing a key role, and providing the pool of capital that has financed 5 years of development to take India past Britain as the fifth largest economy. Its pace of growth over 11% and accelerating with Maharashtra's GST growing at 24% in 2022-2023 over the prior year suggest that this will play a critical role in giving India a large pool of capital for growth. To be supplemented with foreign investment to make New India as a modernized nation. With an economy that will be exceeded only by the US and should catch up to China over the next 10 years. ...

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No one in Northern Ireland wants to go back to the sectarian clashes of the twentieth century says one resident of the region. Most people recall the divided barricaded border with watchtowers and helicopters with extreme anguish. All that was dismantled long ago. But Northern Ireland still looks to the outside for help. Will president Biden bring new investment in the region? Can the Sinn Fein and DUP be persuaded to work together with US participation. A new generation has moved away from the sectarian to the economic issues of the cost of living and provision of public services in education and healthcare across the region. This was affirmed by Sinn Fein winning 27 seats the largest bloc in the 2022 election where focus was on economic issues and the quality of life. Because of Mr. Biden's very personal connection to Ireland there is much hope in Ireland for a new chapter to be written again. There is also a different sentiment in Britain with Keir Starmer's experience as human rights adviser to the Northern Ireland Policing Board. Starmer attributes his decision to go into politics to this experience seeing the changes he could make in Northern Ireland from the inside. The switch to a government by Labour could come at a good time for Northern Ireland and for Scotland.  ...

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It costs about 8 million pounds for maintenance of St Paul's Cathedral. St Paul's Cathedral income declined by 90% as the pandemic led to fewer visitors and ticket sales. The government provides 3.3 million pounds from its culture recovery fund. Because this is not enough for maintenance, much less the 15 million pounds needed for the repair of the 17th century lead roof, one of England's best known cathedrals had to dip into and nearly exhaust its reserve funds. If this is the condition of St Paul's one can imagine what decades of misallocation of capital have done in the rest of the country. St Paul's Cathedral remained a defiant symbol of British resistance in the Second World War during the Battle of Britain.  The dean of the cathedral Very Rev. David Ison says "if we don't have the resources to pay for heating and lighting we may have to close our doors." Imagine closing England's most famous cathedral and symbol of its spirit for lack of funds. Notre Dame Cathedral by contrast in Paris is being renovated with $100 million euros donated by two French businessmen and $700 million pledged so far to rebuilding and renovation of Notre Dame. ...

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Italy faces tighter restrictions and a national lockdown at Easter for the coronavirus, Italians who were the first to go into lockdown on March 10, 2020, now think they will be the last to exit lockdowns. The mood in Europe is of frustration with the slow vaccination drive and the failure to procure enough vaccine supplies and to approve vaccines in time. The US and Britain have vaccination drives that are moving rapidly leading to a reduction in cases and deaths. In Europe new cases are rising since mid February 2021, and there is the spread of the new variant first detected in the UK.  The variants make up 70% of new cases in France says Health Minister Olivier Veran. ICU's in France are 80% full. Elections in France in 2022 and in Germany in September 2021 are leading to government reluctance to impose tighter restrictions. The government strategy is now being questioned. Only 30% of Germans now have confidence in chancellor Merkel's ability to make competent decisions. The CDU's partner in the government, the SDU socialists have even less trust with SDU getting less than 10%. There are signs of a third wave of coronavirus in Germany resulting from variants of the virus, slow vaccinations, and reopenings. ...

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Roger Mosey who worked as Director of BBC News, left BBC News in 2013 and is now the master of Selwyn College, Cambridge. Here he describes the problems the BBC faces and tasks facing it under its new director general, Tim Davie. Mosey sees the need to move power out of London. He is critical of the way the BBC has tended to narrow in its views and its failure to reflect the sentiment in the whole country for Brexit, attitudes towards the European Union, and also in its failure to reflect the sentiment in favor of Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" stance. In recent coverage Mosey says the BBC has not covered both sides of the story in the taking down of statues of Robert Clive to try to educate readers of who he was what happened and why there are different views on this in Britain, opting instead for following what is popular at the moment. He sees BBC as patronizing ordinary Britons who have views that may not coincide with that of people in London who have views on the hard right or hard left. In his view the best way to lose the rationale for BBC license fee is not to educate people on both sides of the story every time. ...

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See these really remarkable black and white pictures of what happens in a period of decay for industrialized economies as old industries die out- as happened in the UK,  in the US with communities left without hope. Only now with Biden and Starmer a new sense of purpose for the US and UK to correct what went woefully wrong- no plans for transition to new industries and outshoring of the nation's industrial base. This exhibition of 20/20 of photos taken by Kilip and Smith in black and white is at the Parr Gallery in Bristol, UK- you can see it here by clicking on original article right now. It is the failure to plan for the transition that has led the Conservatives from Thatcher onwards to the situation today, and a similar situation in the US from Reagan onwards. The haphazard transition has let China take the lead in new industries with government support. Only now is America under Biden making a real transition and backing up new industries for factory jobs with government support and planning for the next 10 years. Britain with the Conservatives in charge is without a clue and financially strapped- the mood in Birtiain is now for Labour under Starmer to right things the way Biden is doing in the US.  ...

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China's sharp slowdown in growth to below 4% is likely to reduce inflation in the US, Europe and the rest of the world. This means less demand for oil and gas, other commodities, that China absorbed for the higher growth, in a degree that was disproportionate when compared to the needs of the rest of Asia, Latin America, Africa, the US and Europe. The inflation in other parts of the world with inflation now exceeding 10% in Britain, is driven by the war in Ukraine cutting off supplies of Russian oil, and by supply chain issues. Lower demand for fossil fuels in China could compensate for the loss of Russian oil supplies by adding that much oil and gas to oil markets. Supply chain issues are being resolved though this may take some time. And a new supply chain is being built that replaces the old one that was too stretched out all over the world without emphasis on making at home in the US and Europe, India and other countries. US shale oil companies have not invested in increasing production and this could change adding to oil and gas supplies. Moderating inflation and a winding down of the war in Ukraine could help the economies of the US, Europe, India and other countries. ...

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BBC Transport correspondent Tom Edwards gives this report on the Elizabeth Line, the Crossrail project that connects London from east to west. He has seen the infrastructure project project from its inception in 2005, past the planned opening date of 2018, till today, through all the ups and downs for a project of this size and complexity. It is the largest infrastructure project in Europe. Most of the tunneling was actually done on time says Edwards, but signaling from stations, and software ran into problems along the way. There were some deaths inside the tunnels and some outside over ground with vehicle accidents. Edwards provides glimpses into the most advanced infrastructure project attempted in Britain for decades. Queen Elizabeth opened the Elizabeth Line at Paddington Station. Station ambient characteristics are also covered in the BBC in a separate article, each station having unique design from Berkshire to Essex. BBC videos and pictures show the evolution of the line, with new management team brought in after delays. At the end of May the new Elizabeth Line will be open to the public. It has been quite a journey says Edwards, with public skepticism over delays, and the pandemic's financial problems. It is surreal now says Edwards, to see trains whizzing through tunnels every 5 minutes. ...

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South Africa feels a sense of relief as omicron cases follow a pattern of very steep upward increase, followed by a short period of a month, and then a very steep decrease. Cases in South Africa with a population of 60 million, about the size of Britain, dropped from 27,000 at the peak to about 15,000 on December 21, 2021. The area around Johannesburg was hardest hit. The median age is 27 years in South Africa, 40 in UK and 43 in Italy. With younger populations in India and parts of Asia South African population demographic is closer to India than it is to Europe where populations are much older. Scientists do not want to extrapolate from the South African experience with Omicron for this reason. Immunity from vaccination and prior infection could be contributory causes to the less severity of omicron say NCID scientists. "In South Africa this is the epidemiology. Omicron is behaving in a way that is less severe," says Dr. Cheryl Cohen, of the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NCID). "Compellingly together our data really suggest a positive story of a reduced severity of omicron compared to other variants," he said at a conference with other scientists on Wednesday, Dec. 22.  ...