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ECB president Mario Draghi tells a newsconference on April 14, 2015, that the bond buying program is "proceeding smoothly." He said that he does not see scarcity in the bond market. The ECB plans to continue its purchases of government bonds and other debt at a rate of 60 billion euros a month through September 2016. He said the program of very low interest rates for a very long time "is fertile terrain for financial instability imbalances," but he did not see evidence of systemically large financial imbalances at this time. The ECB approach would be to tackle the risks by using its power as a bank regulator, not by changing monetary policy, said Draghi. He was optimistic about the initial results, saying "more accomodative monetary policy is being translated into better credit conditions, which is something we have not seen before." The euro is down to $1.06 and low oil prices have helped improve economic conditions, as well as ongoing structural reforms pushed by the EU and ECB. Draghi's forecast for economic growth in the eurozone is now up from 1% to 1.5% for 2015....

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Russian seaborne crude shipments are up 18% as of June 11 over the prior year, Iran's shipments up even more by 45%. The result is increased supplies even though the Saudis tried to increase oil prices by limiting production. China's economy is slowing and faces headwinds that will not go away anytime soon of debt close to 290% of GDP higher than US or Europe. And lower imports by the US and EU as they correct the mistakes of overconcentration in China. The European Union faces high inflation and a mild recession. This is cutting demand as supplies increase. It will help the Biden administration as it seeks to give all Americans a fair chance to improve their standard of living, by reducing the cost of living and investing in the economic potential of the country in a way no other adminstration has done in the last 40 years.

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Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama campaign together in swing states such as North Carolina. Hillary Clinton capitalizes on the surging popularity of Michelle Obama, who has a 64%  approval rating, according to Gallup, 10 points more than president Obama, and above Hillary's 43 percent. Both women show a mutual admiration and sisterhood as they campaign together with rising crowd enthusiasm. For Michelle her unprecedented effort as First Lady is a result of the dirty campaign fought by Donald Trump to turn off voters to the political process, and her effort is meant to counter this. She says about this demeaning of women, "Enough is enough." Both women are drawn together with a campaign for a woman as president. And the slogan coined by Michelle has taken off  "When they go low, we go high." It has energized the very African American and millenial voters that have played an effective role in previous Democratic campaigns.

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The final tally is Republicans 220 and Democrats 215 as all results are in for the 435 member House of Representatives in the US. This is the second smallest majority in US history- in 1917-19 Congress Democrats had  217-215 majority of 2 seats. Because DJT has appointed 3 US Congress members the GOP majority for months will be 217-215. Gaetz's and Waltz's districts are likely Republican but Elise Stefanik's in New York is uncertain. 

At 220-215 Republicans can lose votes of only 2 members of Congress. Washington Post says there moderates, vulnerable Republicans and retiring Congressmen who can express their concerns about legislation. About 12-20 Congressmen have scored less than 60% in Heritage Action's scorecard says Washingon Post. This means hasty,  or controversial legislation will face constructive opposition, be modified or rewritten to satisfy concerns of moderates.

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California gets 75% of its oil from imports and one third of imports from refineries dependent on Hormuz Straits. 20% of jet fuel comes from South Korean refineries, and 25% of gasoline from South Korean, Indian and Taiwanese refineries. This means things can get very tight if the war continues in the Middle East. This could happen as South Korean, Indian and Taiwanese refineries become low in their own stocks and export much less. California has not benefitted from the shale revolution in the Permian basin as pipelines do not exist for transporting that oil. Shipping oil on tanker ships from Texas to California costs more than shipping oil to California from Asian refineries. Over 20 years California lost 50% of its oil refining capacity by creating conditions averse to the oil industry, instead of adopting a two pronged approach of shifting to renewable energy with some flexibility for fossil fuels hat was adopted by the federal Biden administration, also run by Democrats. As a result Chevron which was California based for 144 years shifted its headquarters to Houston,Texas. There are no signs Governor Newsom, a Democrat is reversing his position to show more flexibility on fossil fuels during a transition phase to renewable energy.  ...

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Boeing makes the decision to make the next version of the Dreamliner, the 787-10, exclusively at its plant in the North Charleston area of S. Carolina. This is a non-union facility. Larry Loftis, Boeing's vice president and general manager of the 787 program, says the decision was made because it is not practical to ship by air the midbody section of the new plane which is 114 feet long, 10 feet longer than the 787-9. It would not fit into the modified 747 aircraft used to ship jet parts from one manufacturing facility to another. Currently this midbodysection is assembled in S. Carolina from pieces shipped by air from Italian and Japanese plants. Then flown to Everett, Washington or a S. Carolina assembly line for the final steps in the manufacturing process. Reliability and quality issues for the Dreamliner, and cost, are also better addressed by reducing shipment from one manufacturing facility to another. The decision to build this non-union plant in 2009 created strains with the labor unions. The 787-10 is 224 feet long, carries 320 passengers, one third more than the 787-8 and 15% more than the 787-9. It has a list price of 289 million. Boeing has 132 orders from airlines and lessors for this new version....

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Matt O'Brien points out that the Chinese currency may be overvalued as other currencies including the euro and the Japanese yen weakened. Since 2005 China let the yuan appreciate very gradually. As China's economic growth slowed in 2014 investor outflows have increased with an estimated $800 billion leaving the country. China has spent some of its reserves to keep it stable. Before the move the yuan was managed by letting it trade up or down 2% each day around a midpoint set by the government. The new setup keeps this but lets the market set the midpoint based on where it closed the prior day. This move was recommended by the IMF to help in the transition of the yuan to becoming a reserve currency. O'Brien points out that the soft peg to the U.S. dollar means the yuan appreciated 9.2% against the euro and 57.8% against the Japanese yen in the years 2013-2015, and this is happening as the U.S. Federal Reserve is planning to raise interest rates- the real trade weighted exchange rate being up 14% for the yuan in the last 12 months. The 8.3% decline in the exports for July 2015 over the prior year led the government to this action. The increase in investor outflows as a result will lead to further declines, with some estimates of the eventual decline in the yuan at about 10%....

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Petrobras remains stuck in 2016 with a huge debt load of over $125 billion and a slump in oil prices. CEO Aldemir Bendine is a career government banker appointed by President Rousseff in 2015, as she faces impeachment proceedings for a corruption scandal involving Petrobras. His 11 months in office have been marked by disagreements with the board, with Bendine walking out from one meeting. Petrobras has changed chairmen twice in the 11 months. Bendine's goal of divesting assets worth $15 billion in 2016 may not be achievable say analysts, with other oil companies also divesting assets. As an outsider Bendine faces skepticism from insiders in the company. A oil strike went on for weeks before workers won a raise, resulting in lost production.

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Beijing residents say they began to relax in wearing masks or not wearing them, not wearing masks properly, after 8 weeks with no cases. A vegetable and fruits wholesale market in Beijing, in southwestern district of Fengtai,  which supplies 80% of the fruits and vegetables to Beijing's 21 million people is now seen by health authorites in Beijing as the source of a new outbreak. 79 new cases are traced back to this market on June 15.  In Beijing restaurants and shops had reopened. Primary schools and other schools had reopened. Public health experts are looking at the possibility that the source is a cutting board for frozen salmon imported from overseas possibly Europe-. because of the DNA sequencing of the virus experts say. Contaminated seafood or meat is suspected as a source. China's CDC says the virus can survive on frozen meat or seafood for 3 months. Just when this new cluster was detected in Beijing, the city of Wuhan the origin city of the virus is permitting indoor sports and entertainment facilities reopen, and this WSJ report says Wuhan is making masks no longer mandatory outdoors. Beijing authorites have responded with mass testing, and contact tracing through neighborhood committees. About 100,000 people are organized by neighborhood committees to visit the city's 7000 residential compounds for contact tracing to identify people who visited the market and get them to test for coronavirus. This is the typical response in China to get large numbers of low level officials, workers and volunteers mobilized for contact tracing and testing. By June 14 about 76,000 people were tested - of this 13,000 are from the 29,000 who visited the market since May 30, according to Beijing government statistics. ...

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US-Swiss trade deal November 2025 for 15% US tariff in exchange for $200 billion in investment in US. This includes access to Swiss markets for the US. The agreement also will let in dairy products and chocolate to the US at 15% tariff to reduce cost of living concerns. Swiss dairy producers and chocolate makers are likely to bear most of the 15% tariff burden because of higher margins. The $2000 rebate to all Americans from tariffs is a good idea of the DJT administration to give Americans protection from the smaller share of the tariffs that are passed on to consumers that are not borne by the producers exporting to the US. Overall in that situation the US will benefit in the restructuring of world trade that the DJT administration will have accomplished without hurting American consumers and bringing large scale investment into the US for jobs and higher wages. This is the part of the DJT Deal that could help America rebuild its manufacturing and economy in new ways.  ...

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Nigel Farage is making a comeback in European Union elections in Britain. He led the Independence party and has formed a new Brexit Party to contest the elections. He says the Brexit supporters were deserted in the way the Conservative Party bungled Britain's leaving the European Union. As a result of loss of support for Theresa May with the mess created by repeated failures to pass Brexit deals in parliament, some polls show the Brexit Party surging to 34% of the vote inEuropean elections. The Conservative Party at 11%, and the Labour Party at 21%. The Liberal Democrats at 13%. The Conservative party fragments, and the Labour Party loses supporters to the Greens and Liberal Democrats. Another change is that some of the pro-Brexit supporters of the Labour Party in the middle and the north of the country may shift their vote to the Brexit party. The Conservative party's losses of support are a result of the failure of Theresa May to hold her party together. In the case of the Labour party even though it had 40%  of the vote in the last British election, it is faced with the fact that it has an odd mix of supporters. In the north and the middle of the country its working class support comes partly from Pro-Brexit supporters, and in the cities and London the support is from more liberal, better educated people. This puts both the main parties in the situation which they never thought they would be in.  Mr. Farage says its OK for Britain to leave the European Union without a deal. Prime Minister May has taken great pains to forge a deal, even a cross party deal with Labour if necessary. This has alienated the most fervent Brexit supporters in the Conservative Party who favor a no-deal Brexit. Much of this comes from caution that a no-deal Brexit would hurt Britain's economy and lower growth. A large majority in parliament believes a no deal Brexit would be disastrous for Britain. Nigel Farage does not have to deal with such distant matters as economic growth, the British pound and GDP.       ...

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Every day lost in the struggle with coronavirus is a big thing, which is why Itay's most affluent northern region has gone from being well equipped with resources of healthcare to seeing the health system overburdened to the point of disaster. This WSJ report shows why this has a lesson and an early warning for how the U.S. and other countries should design their response. It is also why the White House team that includes President Trump in the U.S. emphasized the plan for just the first 15 Days in the news conference at the Brady Room in the White House on March 16. It is saying the first 15 days are critical, not a day to lose.  It does not matter if you are an advanced economy with state of the art hospitals. Social behaviours must change, old rules rewritten and implemented throughout nations, quickly in days. Here WSJ shows lessons learned by Dr. Cereda at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania who trained in Milan and was in constant contact with colleagues in Milan and elsewhere. Many of the lessons relate to not overburdening hospitals and health systems and protecting health systems. This means mild to moderate cases are managed from home and not in the hospital, through massive deployment of outreach services and telemedicine. It means therapies can be delivered at home or through mobile clinics. The second major lesson from Italy is to protect healthcare workers and doctors. The entire White House team with Dr Faucci of CDC and Dr Brx, head of Infectious Diseases in the U.S. news conference of president Trump March 16, focused on the goal of protecting healthcare workers, doctors and hospitals, so they remained strong to take on the crisis. The second goal of the White House team is to protect the elderly with medical conditions. To do this only the most serious patients are treated in hospitals the rest for mild to moderate at home.  Studying the conditions in Bergamo and other parts of Lombardy and northern Italy, is helping U.S. medical leaders to prepare for the current nationwide effort, the 15 days plan announced by the White House. The lessons from the Papa Giovanni Hospital in Bergamo are important say U.S. medical leaders, including Dr. Brendan Carr, head of emergency medicine at Mount Sinai Health System in New York.  He says build capacity in hospital beds before we need it. Clear out hospital space and add new hospital beds.  ...

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DJT comments on Denmark's comments on its contributions to NATO overseas operations like the one in Afghanistan. DJT stated the facts about participants such as Denmark that made small contributions in numbers- DJT said on Fox News -We’ve never needed them. We have never really asked anything of them. They’ll say, they sent some troops to Afghanistan or this or that, and they did. They stayed a little back, little off the front lines.” About 41 Danish soldiers were killed in Afghanistan and about 800 Danes went in. DJT is probably talking about the  brunt of the action being taken by the US including the effects of road side bombs. About 2500 US soldiers died and 20,000 were wounded and the US took the brunt of the fighting. These were Bush-Obama wars that during that time distracted the Nation from the serious challenges that emerged later in drug cartels in Mexico that led to more deaths in the US than in the Korean and Vietnam wars and World War combined, and the deindustrialization of the US that began with the Clinton era decision to allow China to enter the World Trade Organization without any safeguards continued into the second term of the Obama administration. In the European media there is rarely any mention of the huge losses from drug trafficking into the US that requires action along the lines of the Monroe doctrine which also protect Europe from drug trafficking into the EU. ...

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Socialist justice politics in north eastern Indian state of Bihar led by Nitish Kumar (following Ram manohar Lohia)- with backward caste mobilization, mobilization of women, and evolution of ancient Buddhist lands into the modern world in 1980-2025. The state has a population of 130 million and an urbanization rate of 17% compared to India's urbanization rate of 37%. It is taking a new turn in 2026 as Nitish Kumar a ten term Chief Minister joins the Rajya Sabha upper house of parliament in New Delhi and his successor pushes forward a new rapid development agenda similar to another state Maharashtra with capital Mumbai.

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British prime minister Theresa May makes a bid for working class votes in the 2017 election, just as the Labor party under Jeremy Corbyn announces its own manifesto seeking working class votes. May has proposed increasing the minimum wage to 60% of median earnings by 2020, and increased funding for the National Health Service by 8 billion pounds over 5 years. Corporate taxes will be reduced from 19 to 17% compared to Labor Party raising it to 26% under Corbyn's manifesto. Some of the Labor Party's supporters in the north of Britain are leaving the party because of dissatisfaction with Labor's leadership.

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GST revenue increase is important because it finances healthcare, education, infrastructure building, jal ghar and cooking gas, Digital India initiatives, housing programs in a way that has never happened before and is needed for modernizing the Indian economy. The same approach is being taken by president Biden in the US to finance his climate and tax bill of $369 billion. It is the biggest climate action bill in history and revenues to finance renewable energy transition are coming from a 15% minimum corporate tax that is being agreed to by all countries in the world including US, Britain, European Union and India. Just today the WSJ the largest biotech company Amgen in the US paid 3.5% effective tax rate on revenues for 2013 when tax rate under federal law was 35%, and the IRS is working on getting $10.7 billion back in payments due over a decade. Much of Amgen's profits of $24 billion had been shifted to a location in Puerto Rico says a report in WSJ. The development work of the free world countries including US, EU, and India cannot happen without this. Without this the US, EU and India cannot even remain competitive with China or tackle national security threats. ...

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With an unemployment rate of 13% compared with 7% as the European average, and Spain having 3 million unemployed, the situation is serious. Spain's savings banks predict another 1 million may be unemployed to take the unemployment rate up to 18%. There are 5 million immigrants among the unemployed, as the immigrant population has risen eight fold in the last decade. The Zapatero government has a euros 33 billion public works programme that it hopes will lead to 25,000 new building projects by May to keep unemployment down. Unemployment benefits will run out for the first wave of jobless by December, 2009. The social safety net represented by the family support that is the backup during such times in Spain is weaker now, with many families having single parents.

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The effects of a health scare about chicken and hormones on China's internet sites is affecting sales of Yum Brands store outlets for Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) in China. As most of the stores are company owned compared to 11% in the U.S., this is having an outsized effect on Yum Brands performance. Fast growth in China can be an asset as well as a liability if not carefully handled. Food is an especially difficult field in China with careful management and control of supplies critical. The Chinese public is skeptical about government monitoring and checks of food supplies and pharmaceuticals after years of lax enforcement. Yum Brands has 5400 KFC and Pizza Hut stores in China, 14% of total global store outlets.

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The Oxford vaccine developed in partnership with Astra Zeneca aims to be the vaccine for the world. The partnership has said it will make 2 billion doses and will provide this without making a profit at about $3 for one dose. Serum Institute of India was the leading supplier of vaccines to the world before the pandemic. Now it is preparing to make 1 billion doses of the Oxford vaccine. Already Astra Zenca has setup agreements for manufacturing  in other countries, with about 24 manufacturing facilities in countries such as Brazil, Japan, and Australia. Arrangements are also made with Russia and Mexico. The Russian partner has capacity to make 1 billion doses of the vaccine. In May the U.S. agreed to buy 300 million doses for $1.6 billion and manufacturing facilities are already being setup in the U.S.  The U.S. and other governments are sharing the risks as Astra Zeneca is hiring other companies to build the manufacturing capacity and working with them to install the new machines and supply the vaccine ingredients. For this the U.S. has Operation Warp Speed a $10 billion vaccine initiative and its organization, including the military. ...

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Emily Baumgaertner takes on the critics of children's vaccines. A major health advancement in tackling polio, measles, mumps, rubella, diphtheria. The NYT says most Americans and doctors today have forgotten what a scourge these disease were in the last century. Polio one of the most serous killing or paralyzing half a million people worldwide in the 1930's and 40's. A scourge deadly as it happened suddenly in a day one could get paralyzed. US president FDR had polio which changed his whole life in the 1920's. In 1952 vaccines took this down from 22,000 in 1952 to just one in 1993.  Measles - the vaccine licensed in 1963. It is highly contagious. Tens of thousands hospitalized 400-500 died each year. It is 97% effective with 2 doses, its spread require 95% coverage rate. 16 measles outbreaks in 2024- about 300,000 children not protected, parents skipping it. Diptheira respiratory disease- 100,000 cases a year in 1920 to less than one today. One in 10 died from it says CDC. Vaccine TDaP. ...

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Peters and Wessel provide profiles of middle aged American men in 2014- as tech workers out of jobs as technology shifts and worker skills fall behind, younger men with masters degrees in fields such as public administration where it is hard to find jobs and workers lack retraining, and other men who lost jobs from globalization or the 2009 economic crisis. About one in 6 working age American men 25-54 are without jobs- about 10.4 million. Of this group two thirds are not looking for work either because they cannot find decent paying jobs or are too discouraged looking for work, and are not counted in the unemployment rate calculated by the Labor Department. About three quarters of the working age men not working have only a high school education compared to 55% with jobs. Wages for highschool dropouts have declined by 25% since the 1970's, and 15% for those without a college degree but having a high school diploma- some of these men are going back to school, others lacking retraining are too discouraged to look for work and depending on a spouse or government benefits. It is these people U.S. Fed chairpersons Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen have in mind as they shape Fed policies since 2009 to not leave them behind....

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Compare the presidential election spending in France and US one sees a huge, really huge difference. In France by law the first round it is limited to 16 million euros and second round to 22 million euros. Companies cannot donate and maximum donation is euros 4600 per year. All candidates must be given equal time by networks after official campaigns start usually March 28. If you get 5% of the presidential vote you get about 48% of the $22 million ceiling and if not only about 5%. Its a fairer system considering about $5 billion will be spent in US presidential election 2024. It keeps out lobbyists and donors looking for silent favors as the pharma industry and the tech industry in the US that has prevented any legislation on fair drug pricing or oversight of the monopolies of Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and others, taxation of profits of tech and fossil fuel companies, or passage of healthcare for all. Indian elections cost of 1.35 lakh crores or $13 billion in 2024 are also similar to the US with parties spending leading to much corruption in the democratic process and defeating its best character.  ...

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GM's relationship with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation is the singlemost important relationship for the company. Its 50-50 joint venture with SAIC has sales volume of 2.6 million vehicles, 30.5 billion dollars in revenue, and earned GM a profit of $1.5 billion in 2011 for operations in the Chinese market. In 2009 just before seeking bankruptcy protection GM gave SAIC 51% ownership in exchange for a $400 million credit line GM used for its Korean operations and $84.5 million. Now that GM has recovered it has sought to restore its 50-50 role in the partnership. In a new agreement reached with SAIC, Shanghai GM will be split in two parts- a sales arm which will book revenues in which SAIC will retain a 51% ownership, and a operating arm in which the old 50-50 partnership is restored. The operating arm is where the budget will be set, product decisions made, hiring done including the next CEO. Under the arrangement made before bankruptcy GM retained a call option to buy back the 1% stake, as long as SAIC was able to book revenue. VW also has a 50-50 partnership with SAIC. Shanghai GM has a 14% share in the Chinese market, with a 41% increase in sales since 2009, making it spectacularly successful for GM. This is the largest market share of any company in the Chinese market, with VW coming in second. GM and SAIC also operate a venture in India. ...

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48% of British voters see immigration as the most important issue, says Ipsos. And 31% say their local area is housing more than its fair share of asylum seekers growing to 61% of Reform UK voters. Reform UK is now leading party with 34% of the vote to Labour's 25% and Liberals 11%. The report in the WSJ on Augu 28 shows how the Labour government did not live up to it's talk on immigration. It also shows how the Conservatives and Boris Johnson failed by opening up non EU immigration from Asia on the grounds that it would bring in the brightest and yet dropped the basic college degree requirement paradoxically or carelessly. Lobbying from health care home care hugely increased migration for this field under Conservatives and is only now being reversed by Labour. Labour has been too slow and the culture of Britain and Labour has not changed enough to grasp the problem. Their are vested interests in Britain such as universities and home care health care that have influenced the conduct of policy so that migration on non-eu has replaced eu migration after Brexit, but not attracted the most qualified immigrants. The 4% of the British population that entered Britain after Brexit as immigrants, millions arrived and now when Labour is trying to bring this down faces a large number of dependent applications. University students are now bringing in their dependents at rates that have skyrocketed. ...

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What are the systemic effects of one of the automakers going out of business? It affects the whole supplier base. This is the case in the event of a liquidation of assets, closing Delphi and so on. This was mentioned by Wagoner as the alternative and not prepackaged bankruptcy with DIP set aside loan for warranty financing which some experts are advocating in combination with a government loan with strings attached including a change in management. Some of the strings are covered in a New York Times editorial reflecting public opinion on the democratic side on this issue, and that includes removal of current management of Detroit auto companies, and fuel efficiency targets raised higher than legislation passed recently under heavy lobbying pressure from these automakers. Contraction of automakers and job contraction should be differentiated from liquidation of assets. The contraction of automaker jobs not just at the Detroit companies but also at Japanese plants in the US is going to happen even with a government loan to Detroit as Honda is also reducing its workforce and this will happen at Toyota also. The carefully planned bankruptcy with carefully and fully addressed warranty and other issues could be made to work along with sufficient government loan money in the $50-$70 billion range in return for equity and other conditions, and its not clear why the management of the Detroit auto companies see it as impossible and not just difficult, when they are already facing considerable difficulties in this market and with public opinion. Rampell talks about how jobs lost are not recoverable, and this is fairly obvious considering that the Japanese and the Germans are unlikely to relocate in the same areas that Detroit has located its plants , and prefer to go and build green plants to specification, and hire very carefully so that workers with the Toyota or Honda frame of mind are hired to work there. This can change depending on individual circumstances but is what they generally prefer to do. Also its important to bear in mind that forecasts that are being used of 13-14 million vehicle market in 2009 are just guesses, it could turn out that the sales drop to something like 10 -12 million vehicles, in which case there will be contraction of jobs on a large scale even at the Japanese and Korean and German plants which there is even now but on a smaller scale. ...