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The Wisconsin Republican primary turns out to be the turning point for the Cruz campaign. Following his landslide win in Utah, Cruz wins in Wisconsin by about 14 percentage points, and begins the long journey to close a signficant part of the gap with Donald Trump. Cruz's organization, and the anti-Trump groups efforts, ad spending, helped Cruz in his win. Trump was handicapped by a series of gaffes including one on abortion- saying he would penalize women having abortions- alienating women. Cruz's margin for voters making up their mind on the day of voting, excluding early voting, was higher at about 17 percentage points. Closer media scrutiny of statements by Trump and policy implications, including foreign affairs, European policy, the nuclear issues, happened in the week before the Wisconsin primary. This happens late in the campaign. The weak media vetting of the main candidates Trump and Cruz being lost in the coverage of Trump's sensational statements and twitter comments about wives, for which the media has come under criticsim. ...

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WSJ's Chuin-Wei Yap provides a glimpse of life in Chengdu with the closing of the Panchenggang steel factory. The Chengdu Iron and Steel factory was started in 1958 under Mao's effort at industrialization. The city depended on the huge steel complex for jobs as generation after generation worked at the same factory. The factory was closed in 2015. Mr. Deng is a laid off worker who gets $24,000 in buyout following 26 years at the plant, and 1500 yuan or about $235 month for 2 years of unemployment benefits with required retraining classes. Economic uncertainty is faced by many laid off workers, worrying about children's college education, spouses doing odd jobs, including a pedicab run by Mr. Deng's wife. About 2 million workers in China work in steel factories, with production having reached extremely high level of overcapacity of 800 million tons. With the plant gone, the local hospital Panchenggang District Hospital, is restructured and bought by a private company, 115 doctors and other staff are offered buyouts....

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On June 30, 2008, oil prices hit an high of $140. Because of the opaqueness of the oil futures markets that help set the price of oil, very little is known about the different players in that market. Because of increasing demands for public scrutiny of such spikes in the market and its effect on the economy, the CFTC has released information about the players in oil trading and futures markets. This list for the period when the prices reached $140 in June 2008 include banks, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, private investment arms of wealthy individuals, and airlines. Investments related to million barrels of oil were made by 219 investors. The banks include: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley which have played a role in oil markets for a long time. BP and Delta Air Lines as users of oil products. It includes Yale University endowment fund, Singapore's government, hedge funds Brevan Howard and D.E. Shaw & Co., pension funds for Texas teachers, Cascade Investment LLC (the investment firm of Bill Gates), and the Danish pension fund ATP....

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Merkel visits China in August 2012 with a large trade delegation including heads of SAP, Siemens, VW and BASF. Germany's largest export market is in the eurozone, at the same time growth in exports has surged to China and India. Between 2005 and 2011, German exports to the EU countries increased by 24%, to the U.S. by 6.3%, and to China by 206%, according to German government data. German investment in China was 26 billion euros in 2011. By contrast China's investment in Germany is small- only about 1.2 billion euros. The impression is that large firms such as VW and Siemens make up most of the investment. In actual fact the German Chamber of Commerce in China says 5000 German companies operate in China, employing 220,000 people, and three fourths of this is from the German "Mittelstand," midsize family owned companies. The Foundation for Family Businesses, representing 400 German Mittelstand companies says it needs more help regarding intellectual property protection in China and is not as well represented in the German trade delegation....

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The WSJ's Latour, Browne, Tejada and Wei interview Lou Jiwei, chief executive of the China Investment Corporation (CIC), China's sovereign wealth fund. He says it is too early to talk about eurobonds as the financial arrangements necessary have still to be put in place. CIC is reducing its exposure to Europe. CIC is interested in infrastructure investments and sees infrastructure investment as the way out of the economic crisis for the U.S. and Europe. He has the most confidence in investing in China. Other locations are in emerging markets Brazil, S. Africa, Latin America. CIC's target is to have 50% of the assets in long term investments in infrastructure investments, commodities, real estate and direct investment and private equity, etc. and the other half in public securities. But this will pose challenges and CIC has not reached this level. It is learning from ATP, the Danish pension fund, Calpers, TRS, and CPP, the Canada pension fund. The portfolio is mark to market which creates pressures to reduce short term volatilities....

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S. Africa's slow progress in getting opportunites for black farmers and President Zuma's efforts to jump start this with a mentorship program. The program benefits S. Africa and white farmers as fewer young people want to stay on the land and farm. About 80% of farmland is white controlled, yet the number of white commercial farmers is declining rapidly, from 60,000 in 1994 to 37,000 in 2012, according to Theo de Jager, deputy president of Agri SA, a commercial farmer association. Jager says a new generaion of farmers from the black community has to fill the gap left by fewer white farmers. One of the problems is the high cost of the program and seed money for new black farmers. Since 2009 the government spent $122 million a year to support only about 1 in 10 farmers on redistributed land. The government has spent $730 million to buy white owned farmland since 1994. New farmers receive about $500,000 for equipment, seed and livestock. A mentor gets $600 per month.

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Even though exports are gaining in Iowa and overall it has benefitted from free trade, the wages in Iowa as elsewhere have suffered as companies pressed hard by global competition are reducing their wage. This is one way globalization is hurting workers in Iowa as it is hitting workers in other states. The two tier wage system at John Deere provides for lower wages for new younger workers. This is hurting incomes in the state. Because of these changes politically free trade is not very popular in the state and this reflects feeling acrss the country. The trend is to argue for protecting the wages of American workers by changing free trade agreements to include environmental and labor protections for oveseas workers so that this closes some of the gap between the wages here and overseas. The advantage to American workers of lower prices at a Walmart is more than offset by the lower wages as products are manufactured overseas and wage pressures are felt at home is the feeling reflected in some of the opinions expressed in Iowa....

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Karishma Vaswani of the BBC points out that most of China's economic growth came with the shift to a market economy made by Deng Xiaoping in 1979, when he announced that China would follow a program of "socialism with Chinese characteristics." By comparison the 19th Party Congress is more about stabilization, preserving the gains made so far after Deng's opening up of the economy to foreign investment and technological collaboration. The placing of thought of Xi Jinping into the Chinese Constitution is more about setting a path of stable direction by the Communist Party than of major changes. The gains in the economy have come with some costs that will have to be addressed by an aging society. Particularly the problems of air and water pollution that other economies in Asia and Latin America following their own development paths would now strive to avoid. An anti-corruption drive was part of this effort for stable direction as the problems of debt to GDP ratio of close to 270% with an aging society remain to be tackled. There is still a large gap between the upper middle class and the rest of China as a result of the rapid growth. In this sense Jinping's effort at the 19th Party Congress is more about restoring the credibility of the Chinese Communist Party as China tackles the next stage of growth needed to catch up with Japan or South Korea. ...

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Xiaomi is China's leading brand. It is very different from other companies in China and America. It is tightly controlled by its founder Lei Jun who has built a loyal following for the brand  through fan clubs and creating an enthusiastic following. Because the firm is run by founder Lei Jun it can make quick decisions to enter a market. Lei Jun was a computer science student in Wuhan in 1987 as China opened up to the world.  By 2017- in three years from being zero in the Indian market place in 2014- Xiaomi had become the largest smartphone company in India. The company was launched in 2010. Profit margins are thin about 1% in a very competitive pricing market.  Metrics are based on revenue per user of $9 per user from an installed base of 190 million smartphone users, spending 54 minutes a day using Xiaomi's app, game and other services, or 20% of the phone use time. Revenue per user comes from advertising, and from commissions on the apps and games it sells to its user base. In 2015 Xiaomi had a loss, in 2016 sales dropped, in 2017 new products led to a resurgence in the market with sales increasing 68%. As Xiaomi goes into its IPO, experts say much of the $10 billion from the IPO could go into reinvestment as Xiaomi reinvents itself and moves into other internet business. ...

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The average interest rate at big banks for millions of depositors is only 1-2% or 0.73% on average for banks, even though the Fed has put market interest rates at above 5%. This is true also in Europe for the gap in rates, and there are charges of profiteering by banks.

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PM Modi inaugurates the Sonmarg Tunnel in Sonmarg, J&K. The 6.5 kilometer tunnel connects Gaganir with Sonmarg. Located at a height of about 8700 feet it promotes connectivity all year round between Srinagar and Sonmarg, and builds access to Ladakh region. It will promote tourism and Winter Games in the region.

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Mark Hulbert points to the comparison of financial ratios in Dec 1999 when the Nasdaq Composite Index reached 4000, with the situation in November 2013 when the Index again crossed 4000. He cites the changes from P/E ratios for trailing earnings at 30 in 1999 compared to 20 in 2013 for the Nasdaq Index, Shiller cyclically adjusted P/E ratios at 44 in 1999 compared 24 in 2013, Price/Book ratios at 5.1 in 1999 compared to 2.6 in 2013, and Price to Sales ratios at 2.4 in 1999 compared to 1.6 in 2013. The broad market could still be overvalued says Hulbert, but the Nasdaq index shows tech companies not speculatively driven up in the way they were in 1999.

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Speaker Johnson says "all of us 100 percent support the principle behind it." 100% support means killing the key part of the Kids bill on protecting mental health. Republican Senator from Tennessee Marsha Blackburn is leading the fight for the Kids Online Safety Act. It passed the US Senate in a 91-3 vote.  Donald Trump Jr. says  “It's time for House Republicans  to pass the Kids Online Safety Act ASAP.” House Republicans are trying to water down a bill on social media (Facebook and others) by taking out duty of care language that social media companies want taken out. Lobbying by social media companies means Speaker Johnson is holding out even when DJT and Elon Musk, have joined 35 states Attorney Generals, and the Biden Administration's Surgeon General in a bipartisan effort to get the House to pass the social media legislation. Speaker Johnson says "all of us 100 percent support the principle behind it." 100% support means killing the key part of the Kids bill on protecting mental health. Limiting it to physical harm defeats the purpose of the legislation as the WSJ did an extensive investigative report series documenting the harm to mental health and mental health is what needs protecting.   ...

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Starmer of the UK's plan for Ukraine is clearly a stop gap plan in the chaotic manner in which DJT plan for disbanding NATO was conducted. This gives time for the Europeans to act. Meanwhile Leyen's EU -Leyen was Defense Minister of the Federal Republic of Germany- put out a $158 billion plan for funding defense. Merz of the CDU is clear how his coalition with SPD will act for independence from America on Europe's defense. Within weeks or months one can expect the Federal Republic take the lead for the defense of Europe, with the partnership of France, and the Nordic countries of Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and the UK. As Merz said clearly- “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA." European perceptions of recent happenings in the Ukraine war and the war's progression from the beginnings over three years will matter in 2025 as Europe, as Germany, France and Britain take on the role of bringing a fair peace to Europe that closes the war and does the reconstituting of defense architecture of Europe under new institutions that needed to be taken up in the 1990's after the fall of the Berlin Wall. ...

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Apple reports a slowdown in iPhone sales, with a less than 1 percent in increase in sales, for fiscal first quarter ending Dec. 26, 2015, over the prior year quarter. Revenue is expected to decline by 11% for the quarter ending in March 2016, over the prior year, first such decline in 13 years. Analysts say Apple will have to reduce gross margins of about 40% to increase sales. Apple CFO Maestri says Apple increased prices in some markets because of the strong dollar. When the stronger dollar is excluded from results for the quarter ending Dec. 26, 2015, sales revenue increased by 8% over prior year quarter, according to Apple. As Apple slows down its shares financial performance is stalled at about $100. Apple tried to present a different picture now that China sales are slowing down- it said that users had "engaged" with 1 billion Apple devices whether iPhone, iPad, Mac, or Apple TV, in the last 90 days, by downloading an app, song or movie. These services geneated $5.5 billion in revenues for the quarter ending in December, a 15% increase over prior year quarter....

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Election expert, Karl Rove, says following the win in the New York primary Trump has 845 delegates according to Associated Press, yet there are 950 delegates on the opposite side, putting the gap at 105 with the others. Trump has won 47% of the delegates upto this point, and needs to win 58% to get to the needed 1237 delegates for a majority. Rove, says Trump's threat to run as an Independent is an empty threat because of the filing date for running as an Independent for 12 states is well before the convention on July 18, 2016. By that date 12 states with 166 electoral votes will have already seen deadlines passed for registering as an Independent. The states include Illinois, Indiana, Florida, Texas. Michigan's date is during the convention. Registering as an Independent before the convention and some of the primaries would alienate his own voter base, says Rove. Another factor is that Trump would have to raise a significant number of signatures under the rules which is doable, but would create the impression of being in a spoiler role than a serious candidate....

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The difficult task facing Governor Jerry Brown of making the painful cuts in education, the state's university system and social services, as he faces a $15.7 billion gap in the state budget. The Republicans in the legislature have made it difficult for governors in the state to get the two thirds majority to increase taxes, and the Democrats have opposed the spending cuts, leading to chronic budget shortfalls. Governor Brown says unless temporary tax increases, including quarter percent rise in sales taxes and income tax surcharge on the wealthy are passed, California will have to make cuts of $6 billion in January 2013. This would include cuts in public schools and the university system. This would be in addition to cuts of $8.3 billion he has proposed for cuts in welfare, social services, and health care for the elderly. Experts say the political culture in the state is a problem, and is proving to be impervious to this governor's long years of experience and considerable skills. Jerry Brown says California, and the U.S. are both living beyond their means and need to take the medicine....

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The overheating economy in Turkey. Inflation could reach 7.5% by the end of 2011 according to Goldman Sachs. HSBC economist, Murat Ulgen, estimates the current account deficit could reach 8% of GDP in the the 12 months ending in March. Goldman Sachs economist, Ahmet Akarli, says the government has kept the fiscal and monetary stimulus for too long. The AKP party is expected to win elections in June 2011 elections and the growing economy is helping it win voter support. His estimate is that nominal wage growth is 18% a year, domestic demand is rising by 25% and credit growth is 30-40%. It is proving hard for the central bank to control capital inflows which is making monetary conditions far too loose. In 2010 the central bank cut interest rates and raised reserve requirements for foreign and local banks to slow capital inflows but this was ineffective. Now the central bank is raising interest rates. Consumer lending is at an all time high and raising reserve requirements is not working. Turkey's new central bank governor, Erdem Basci, says the seas are choppy and a storm may erupt at any time even though things are steady at this time. ...

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Pfanner and Chen of the NYT talk to Samsung executives in Digital City, Suwon, head offices near Seoul. After capturing about 40% of the smartphone market Samsung still remains for the most part a hardware based company with strengths in production, cost and efficiency. Samsung still remains dependent on the Google Android software. Competitors in China are making smartphones that compete with Samsung products and cost much less. There is also the awareness of the problems faced by Motorola, Nokia, Blackberry, HTC, having only a temporary advantage in the fast paced software driven industry. Samsung's software efforts include merging its research effort in mobile operating systems with an industry effort that includes Intel Corp called Tizen operating system. In 2011 Samsung hired David Eun, who worked for AOL and Google, as one of the executives leading its software effort. The Boxee startup for television software was acquired and a partnership setup with the Flipboard news reading app company. In Feb. 2013 the Open Innovation Center was opened in S. Korea, New York and Mountain View, California, The same year the Samsung Accelerator program was setup in Palo Alto and Chelsea for tech startups to make products exclusively for Samsung. ...

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The nuclear deal reached in the 2013 Geneva negotiations between Iran and the EU, U.S., Russia, France, Germany, UK and China, a diplomatic bloc named the P5+1. Iran gets sanctions relief that would bring in an additional $6-7 billion dollars. In return Iran agrees to increased International Atomic Energy Agency inspections of the heavy water reactor in Arak, to not start the facility or lead it with nuclear fuel. Earlier France had pushed for a complete dismantling of that reactor. Iran will cap its uranium enrichment to levels needed only for fuel in a reactor, of 3.5%-5%, and maintain its total low enriched nuclear fuel at the current level of about 6 tons for the six month period in which further negotiations will take place. As the EU representative put it, this provides the time and space to reach a serious deal. It does not ship out and destroy the estimated 19,000 centrifuge machines in Iran to produce nuclear fuel. A sticking point was Iran's insistence that it has a right to develop and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, which Iran says is part of the UN Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty....

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Obama outlined his views on fuel efficiency goals in his speech to the Detroit Economic Club in May 2007. The thinking of the new President on this issue developed in the last few years as he met with different environmental and conservation groups and studied what was happening in the area of energy. He has used Paul Volcker, Austin Gollsbee, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago, and Joshua Steiner, a former Treasury official with abackground in restructuring, as advisors during the bailout discussions. His speech at the Detroit Economic Club faulted the UAW for joining with management in continuing to stall development of fuel efficient automobiles as retooling costs were high and the companies were being required to support high retiree and health benefits costs. In effect the management-UAW staus quo of continuing to turn out the same mix of pickup trucks and SUV's and leaving the gap in small and medium sized cars without the necessary invesments to turn out winners, may have led GM into the situation it faced even before the credit crisis, when sales of larger vehicles just went over the cliff. ...

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DW.com looks at the elections in Senegal, Nigeria, South Africa and Namibia, with active civil society, and development efforts in Senegal, efforts to restore the popularity of the ANC in South Africa with new plans for land reform.  

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Unknowingly many people have ownership in gun manufacturers through their pension funds. Pension funds for public employees in Florida, Texas Wisconsin and Ohio have stakes of less than 1% in American Outdoor Brands, formerly Smith & Wesson, the manufacturer of AR-15 semiautomatic rifles used in mass shootings at schools and other locations. Even a reputed fund such as TIAA representing teachers has small stakes in this company, this report in the NYT shows. New Jersey is one of the states cutting out investments of state pension funds in gunmaker companies. New York state still has small positions in its teacher pension funds in these companies. AS this NYT report shows it is through the use of  broad stock indexes that pension funds end up owning these stocks even when they have not specifically picked out such stocks. Equally or more alarming as reported here is that funds such as Fidelity and Vanguard own large stakes in the gunmaker companies. Fidelity is reported as the top shareholder of Vista Outdoor, with 15% of the company, through actively managed funds.  Vanguard has a 9.5% stake in Sturm Roger, and a 8% stake in American Outdoor Brands. Black Rock and Capital Group also have stakes in gunmaker companies. This points to a larger culture problem in the U.S. as financial companies see this as " a social issue" whatever that is supposed to mean in the minds of investment managers, when it is really an everyday issue for parents and children. In a culture prevalent in parts of the country and American society that sees something as basic as guns in schools and other public areas as "social change" a spokesman for Vanguard can quietly say that "mutual funds are not optimal agents of social change," without arousing a response. ...

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How even vehicles once thought to be no in the popularity list are catching up in redesign. The Mitsubishi Outlander is one in the redesigned version, showing nothring is aat a standstill in the automotive universe.