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German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht says Germany will send anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine. She said "we are working together with our American friends in training Ukrainian troops on artillery systems on German soil." 

The decision by Russia to launch a new offensive in the south and east of Ukraine after the stalling of the Russian forces near Kiev, has led to a shift in American policy to decisively counteract the Russian moves into Ukraine with weapons and training assistance. WIth both Republicans and Democrats determined to support president Biden in this decision, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Foreign Minister Blinken visited Kviv and then landed at Ramstein Air Force Base to coordinate the efforts from Germany.

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US Trade Representative Tai and India Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal will meet in New Delhi November 22-23 on Tai's visit to New Delhi, Seoul and Tokyo to strengthen trade and investment ties for Indo-Pacific region. Following Modi's meeting with Biden in Washington DC the discussions with Tai will reconvene the India US Trade Policy Forum in 2021, and push forward with the negotiations for the Investment Incentive Agreement to increase investment in development projects in India. All aspects of investment, trade and industry will be covered as India builds a closer relationship with US in its drive for economic development that also strives to achieve goals for renewable energy.

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One of the failures of presidents who preceded Mr. Biden, was to let the revolving door policy of letting private sector executives to join government and set rules that favored the companies they had connections with. This made it harder to tackle the problems of the 2009 global financial crisis triggered by corporate overleveraging and shoddy mortgages. It also left workers and families unprotected, failed to invest in rebuilding American infrastructure, and did not do enough for the middle class. The result was a recovery that failed workers and families- a challenge left for Mr. Biden to tackle and requiring vigilance to avoid missteps such as this one of letting banks and  large corporations write the rules they must follow.

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After the disaster of the Japanese Fukushima nuclear plant in 2011 following a tsunami and earthquake chancellor Merkel made the decision to close nuclear plants. Germany will close 3 nuclear plants in December 2021. Decommissioning will take 20 years and 1.1 billion euros per plant. In 2022 Germany will have only 3 nuclear plants in Bavaria, Baden-Wurttemberg, and Lower Saxony, equivalent to power of 4 gigawatts from 1000 wind turbines. Gas prices are up 10 fold in 2021 as Germany makes the shift to wind and solar. Economy and Climate Protection Minister Habeck of the Greens party in the new German government sees a continuation of the policy removing nuclear plants and shifting to wind and solar.

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The Spanish election produced a better than expected result for the Sanchez government. This report in CSIS shows that after a brief period Spain is returning to dominance of the Party Popular or the Socialist Party, the two governing parties in Spain, with smaller parties doing poorly. Both the PP and the Socialist Party are vying for support of a majority of 176 seats with the help of smaller parties. The VOX did not do as well as expected and a PP VOX party government looks less likely says this report. Even if a government with Partido Popular is formed it will continue most of Spain's foreign policy of supporting NATO and the EU. Mr. Sanchez formed a new government in 2020.

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Rishi Sunak's approval rating drops by 5 percentage points in just one week, and this after the Conservative Conference in Manchester where he announced plans on relaxing net zero plans and other policy. Sunak's approval rating drops to 20%. A poll taken after Starmer's speech at the Labor conference in Liverpool shows the Conservatives dropping to 24% and Liberal Democrats dropping to 9%. Labor has the support of just under half of voters in Britain today at 47%. 32% now feel Starmer would be the best prime minister compared to 20% for Sunak. After the Liverpool Labor Conference the percentage of people who thought Labor had a clear plan for the country increased by 6 percentage points.

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NYT's Keith Bradsher points out that weak sales in interior of China, and construction industry no longer supporting the economy, is leading to the new policy of pushing solar/EV's exports and sales overseas. These industries are state promoted with hidden subsidies of land, energy, and labor pool that the US lacks in similar subsidies- subsidies treated with theory arrogance in the US by economists who lack a grasp of the realities of manufacturing and trade. President Biden is freeing US industry from this stranglehold of weak economic theory that has too long beset US industry, by supporting American industry in every way possible, protecting and enlarging American manufacturing, and CHIPS technology scientific endeavors.

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France and Germany agreed to begin talks on a common nuclear umbrella in Jan 1997 as reported here in The Washington Post on Jan 25, 1997. 

The post cites Le Monde- "Our two countries see themselves exposed to the same risks. We are ready to open a dialogue on the role of nuclear deterrence in the context of European defense policy." Says the document signed by Germany's Helmut Kohl and Frances Jacques Chirac on Dec. 9, 1996. France had clashed with the US under De Gaule and De Gaulle had pursued an independent nuclear deterrent. Chirac took up this stance in 1996 with nuclear tests in French Polynesia and offered to share its nuclear deterrent with Germany.

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This NYT editorial describes U.S. president Obama's West Point speech as lacking substance and overhyped. Issues of how to tackle relations with a more assertive China and Russia were left unaddressed, and the increase in tensions in Asia and in Europe were left out. Much of the speech used platitudes without spelling out what the U.S. would do, such as saying that there was no question that the U.S. would lead, it was about how it would lead. Questions raised about Obama's handling of foreign affairs will not be addressed by this speech, says NYT. The WSJ editorial on May 29, 2014, expressed a similiar opinion, suggesting that many are asking the same questions about whether there is a policy or whether it is being framed by Mr. Obama's personal preferences to stay out of most foreign issues and focus on domestic affairs, even though this means neglect of issues in which the lack of U.S. leadership will have serious implications for the future. Was the address an attempt to gloss over these obvious deficiencies with Mr. Obama's rhetorical skills?...

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Jerome Powell, a Fed Governor, is the next choice for Federal Reserve chairman. He is a lawyer, and was Treasury undersecretary for financial institutions in the George H.W. Bush administration. He is an investment banker and also worked for the Carlyle Group. This is the first time in three decades that a choice is made outside of the economics profession. Fed policy for a gradual increase in short term rates is unlikely to change says the WSJ, as Powell was a close ally of current chairwoman Yellen. He is only different in that he is for a less burdensome regulatory policy at the Fed, to avoid what he calls an "ever increasing checklist," so that regulation is not seen as an answer in all situations.

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The immigration issue in alocal race for Mayor in the Chicago North Shore suburb of Waukegan. Here Hispanic organizations helped defeat a Democratic party mayor who had put ordinances in place that allowed the police to arrest people purely on immigration charges.

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Differences over Gaza policy in the ruling coalition in Israel lead to the reisignation of the defense minister Mr. Lieberman. The result could be early elections which Mr. Netanyahu called "irresponsible" considering the situation in Gaza and Israeli security.

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With about one fourth the population of California Michigan has done approximately 100,000 tests, compared to about 213,000 in California. This is about twice the rate of testing in Michigan- with the help of the U.S. government- compared to testing taking place so far in California. The lack of aggressive testing in California could also mean there is a lot that remains unknown about the extent of the spread of coronavirus in California. 

That Governor Newson ordered New York to shelter in place on March 19, 3 days after the stricter stay at home order in France on March 16 requiring a document to show police to go outside, shows California like the rest of the country was not that much different. Beaches were packed in California on the weekend of March 15. A lot remains unknown at this point about the spread of the virus. The urban sprawl areas in Michigan are as hard hit as Detroit.

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Peru is one more example of how the corruption scandals surrounding Brazil's construction firm Odebrecht is affecting other countries in Latin America. A former president Alan Garcia was found dead having shot himself to prevent arrest by police in Lima, Peru. Alan Garcia was one of 4 Peruvian presidents involved in a vast Odebrecht scandal involving construction contracts, alongside Pablo Kuczynski, Ollanta Humala, Alejandro Toledo.

A judge in Lima ordered Kuczynski be on preventive custody in a money laundering investigation. PPK or Kuczynski led Peru until 2016 until resigning in March 2018 after moves to impeach him over links to Oderecht. Garcia served as president for 2 terms 1985-1990, and 2006- 2011. In Brazil the Odebrecht scandal and the scandal in oil company Petrobras led to a change in government after elections that led to a win by Mr Bolsonaro over the ruling Workers party that governed Brazil for over a decade.

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Decriminalizing hard drugs led to all sorts of problems in Portland Oregon and citizens feeling unsafe with and increase in homelessness and increase in drug activity. Mike Baker talks to Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler about how a Proposition Measure 110 in 2020 decriminalized drugs with three fourths of Portland supporting it. Not anymore as most people still feel unsafe. Governor Gina Kotek has reimposed criminal penalties for possession of drugs. And Wheeler now supports expanding the police force. It is a three year experiment that went wrong also creating a sense that there a personal safety problem for ordinary residents of the city. The lack of behavioural facilities to help people affected added to the problem. This has lessons for all parts of the country, Wheeler also says the politics also went awry. Safe streets, safe neighborhoods is part of the infrastructure that America is building across the country under the Biden administration, safety and ease of living are what infrastructure and rebuilding America is about. And the perception of the need for good law enforcement and safe neighborhoods, safe transportation is now embraced across America. ...

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Powell and Rashbaum's interview with New York City Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly. Kelly changed the idea that crime was an everpresent fact of urban life in the heart of America's cities. He also considered increasing the number of officers alone as a political number not related to improving safety. Crime reduces the quality of life in inner city neighborhoods and in downtown areas and a safe city benefits all communities. Could this have been done without "stop and frisk" or had things deteriorated to the point that such measures had to be resorted to is the controversy surrounding the tactics. This had less to do with the increasing inequality in the city that the new Mayor De Blasio cited in the election, which was aggravated by the 2008 financial crisis and cuts in state and federal funding, which affected minority communities disproportionately.

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This WSJ picture essay report from Afghanistan shows life in different provinces, and the road north from Kabul to Herat on the Iranian border. It says that while the Taliban restrict freedoms, the end of the fighting brings peace to the countryside so long plagued by war, and relief for Afghans from endless war.  It also is year of a severe drought that is expected to cripple agriculture, the worst since 1980. It was just this kind of drought in 1972 that crippled agriculture leading to a famine in the country under King Zahir Shah. For some 300 years since 1700 the British kept foreign powers out of the British Empire's surrounding regions including Afghanistan and Tibet. That drought led to the King's brother-in-law taking control of the country in 1974, conducting a repression of Communist leaders who responded by action inside the military leading to 2 communist factions inside the military taking control. These factions fought for control and invited the Soviets into the country with a friendhship treaty. India under prime minister Indira Gandhi had just fought a war in 1971 to set up a free nation of Bangladesh out of the old East Bengal. It had to deal with millions of refugees from Bangladesh in 1971-72 when these changes were taking place in Afghanistan. British policy had maintained peace for so long but Indira Gandhi was not aware of the dangers from the ousting of a king who had ruled since 1933 and the wars that followed. Bringing Russia into Afghanistan after centuries of peace led to the first error America made fighting a proxy war in Afghanistan under the Reagan policy. After a brief period following a ten year struggle and withdrawal of Russia, the US entered Afghanistan in a 20 year conflict which led to the withdrawal this year. President Biden finally ended the war saying Afghanistan had never been united in its history. Because of the far flung provinces and mountainous terrain, the nature of the country, this is correct. It is also a graveyard of empires which is why the British carefully, rigorously carried out a policy of no foreign powers in Afghanistan and Tibet, both neighboring India, ensuring peace since 1700. ...

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The Washington Post points out the damage to civil society and the rule of law in Egypt in 2014-2015. It cites the Working Group on Egypt's conclusions that repression only works to increase the extremism in the region. A bipartisan group of seven senators including John McCain and Marc Rubio, in a letter to Mr. Kerry, the U.S. Secretary of State, says the U.S. foreign policy must always support human rights, political reform and civil society. It calls these core principles.

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David Kirkpatrick, former Cairo bureau chief of the New York Times, gives an account of how the Obama  administration was split in its support of Egypt's beginnings in democracy. Chuck Hagel at Defense, and John Kerry at State Department, sent signals to the military that were different from that of some other members of the Obama administration. General Mattis at Central Command blamed president Morsi's failure on his " imperious leadership." General Flynn headed the Defense Intelligence Agency at the time of president Morsi's ouster by the military. Both Mattis and Flynn later joined the Trump administration with Mattis at Defense.  This report says president Obama accepted the military takeover. President Obama aroused hopes for democracy at Cairo University soon after he became president but he was not able to develop a coherent policy and support within his administration for what would be a difficult transition to democracy in countries that for decades have been ruled by the military. President Trump merely continued the policy followed during the last 2 years of the Obama administration.      ...

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Jennifer Steinhauer of the NYT says the U.S. Congress is acting as a counter balance to  president Trump to maintain America's postwar policies common to both Republican and Democratic presidents and seen as part of core values- support for NATO and the mutual defense enshrined in Article 5 of NATO, support for the trans-Atlantic alliance. Senators in Congress are now voting overwhelmingly to support these values. This is seen in the manner the leading Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee sees his job- to retake the important role Congress and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee has historically played in making foreign policy. His view is that the committee he chairs had become a kind of debating society. It is also seen in the way Corker handled a Russia sanctions bill giving Secretary of State Tillerson time to seek improvement of relations, and when time had run out pulling together all members of the Senate to pass the Russia sanctions bill. That bill passed the Senate by 97 for and 2 against in an overwhelming show of support for Congress to make its own foreign policy moves.  ...

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Kevin Rudd maintained a strong relationship with China when he was prime minister of Australia, He writes this piece in WSJ on the internal debate on policy taking place inside China at the China Central Economic Work Conference. Discussions are carried out in a vaguely referenced manner leaning to one side or the other in these dialogues inside Communist party circles since the 1930's. Here the discussion is on how quickly the idea of reducing social and economic inequality, or Xi Jinping's idea of a common prosperity should be implemented.

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Laurence Meyer of Macroeconomics Advisors, a former Fed governor, says monetary policy will offset the effects of tighter fiscal policies and budget cuts. This is not stated explicitly he says, but Bernanke will counteract the effects of budget cuts and austerity policies by putting off rate hikes. The expiry in December 2011 of a compromise reached between the GOP and Obama to lower payroll taxes and offering business a tax break on capital investment will lead to a reduction in GDP by 1% in 2012, according to Mark Zandl, of Moody's Analytics. Pressure for budget cuts could add another half percentage point reduction in GDP, according to IHS Consultants. Bernanke will be mindful of these considerations as he considers any rate hikes in 2012.

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Jennifer Lind, associate professor at Dartmouth, says the right policy for the Abe administration is to follow Defence Minister, Itsunori Onadera's apology for Osaka Mayor Hashimoto's remarks about "comfort women" during the war period. Onadera said, Hasimoto had caused misunderstanding and mistrust in Japan's neighbors with his imappropriate remarks about the history of Japan, and emphasized previous apologies of the Japanese people. A senior Chinese delegate Zhou Bo of the Defense Ministry to the Singapore regional security forum, where Onadera made his statement, stated that Onadera's remarks pointed towards a optimistic future for the region. Editorials in the WSJ have consistently pointed out what Lind says in her op-ed- that the Japanese people support for the Abe administration is based on its efforts for achieving economic recovery and not for creating tensions in the region with neighbors. This also is evidently the policy of the U.S. government and its European allies.

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Israel's prime minister Netayahu and U.S. president Obama move further apart with serious disagreement on when to impose further sanctions on Iran for nuclear weapons development. Netanyahu accepts an invitation from Speaker Boehner to address the U.S. Congress in 2015. Republicans face a serious divide with the U.S. president with serious disagreements in domestic policy, including immigration, taxes, and ways of addressing increasing inequality.

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So much for political campaigning and talk of inflation, inflation comes in lower in September after DJT tariffs of 10-15% on EU, Japan and other trading partners. The higher tariffs on China are action needed to reduce trillion dollar trade deficits the world has with China, deficits that are economically destabilizing for the world economy, with supply chain concentration a serious problem. US inflation in September came in at 3.0 percent lower than expected.  One reason is that the headline numbers are high but in actual practice the tariffs are on average at 12.5% not 17% or 25% as headlines show. The tariffs vary by country and the US was careful to keep them at 10% for the EU and Britain and 15% for Japan, the key trading partners. China is an exception at 47% because it is US policy to reduce the world's 1 trillion trade deficit with China and cutting this is a major goal. For decades the US tried every possible way to bring it down to no avail till this effort with tariffs. Another is exceptions in products- for India this includes semiconductors, smartphones and pharmaceuticals. Another factor is that postpandemic inflation in 2021-2022 created higher profit margins in auto, retail and other sectors of the economy. As a result only 30-40% of the tariff gets passed onn to consumers. In autos only about 20% because buyers cannot afford the high prices. Some tariffs are still being negotiated and are a foreign policy tool to get India to stop funding Russia in the Ukraine war knowing that India was importing most of its oil from non-Russian sources till 2019. China is also funding Russia, that is true but the US can insist on exercising its leverage with Asian partners not China. With China the tariff on fentanyl and the overall 47% tariff- down from 57% after meetings in Busan, South Korea between Xi and DJT last month- shows the US takes the Chinese role in distorting world trade to its benefit seriously.  ...