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Paul Krugman's response to Arthur Laffer's recent article warning of the dangers of inflation and rising interest rates, as the monetary base is rapidly expanded by the Fed. Krugman points out that there is one thing Laffer omitted to mention. This is the third time in history that a major economy is facing a liquidity trap, where interest rate cuts have reached their limit, and policymakers and the Fed have to use unconventional measures to keep the economy from a steep descent. Krugman says a rising monetary base isn't inflationary when the economy is in a liquidity trap . He cites facts that the monetary base of the USA doubled between 1929 and 1939, but prices fell 19%. Japan's monetary base rose 85% between 1997 and 2003 but deflation continued in Japan. To reverse course now would repeat the mistakes of that period. And he says the US was experiencing growth in 1937 and 1996, when policy makers reversed course pushing the economy back into a descent, whereas today the US is facing negative growth. ...

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The 10 year Treasury bond yields went up from 3.0% 3 months ago to 3.78% in April, according to Treasury International Capital data. The Fed is buying Treasurys to keep rates low, but its spending may be creating new worries about inflation. These worries may be pushing rates higher and threaten to choke off a economic recovery.

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With the decline of its hardware business making iPhones Apple is looking at other fields. It is launching cheap online TV subscriptions in streaming wars in competition with Netflix and others. Apple is launching a new TV streaming service Apple TV+ in 100 countries for 4.99 British pounds a month undercutting Netflix's price of 5.99 pounds. The new service will be started November 1, 2019. Disney plans a streaming service for 7 pounds a month starting November 12. This service is alongside iPhone 11 launch and anew iPad, a new iWatch. Buy any new Apple device and you get a 1 year streaming service free.  Sales of iPhones fell 14% in the April to June 2019 quarter to 39 million units. Samsung's business is growing by 4% to 75 million units and Huawei by 16% to 58 million units. Apple sees the need to increases its services business with a target of $50 billion in 2020. Apple sees itself more as a media and cloud services company as it makes this change. In markets such as India Apple's growth is limited by its failure to lower prices on new iPhones. In China it faces strong competition from Huawei. The trade tensions are increasing the strength of Chinese brands in the Chinese market. The market in U.S. and Europe is saturated after years of expansion. New iPhone models are costly and bring peripheral advantages such as more and better cameras and features such as screens that are not breakable- for the iPhone 11- not dimensions that are critical for making a costly purchase. After years of growth tech companies such as Apple, Google, Alibaba, Amazon are reaching a point where incremental growth is not what it used to be and most of the rapid growth behind them. Trade tensions are also limiting the outlook in the Chinese market, and pricing remains a major factor in the Indian market. Western markets are saturated. There are fewer and fewer substantial new ideas from these tech companies. ...

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Astra-Zeneca insists prescription drugs is an attractive business and remains focussed on that business, even as other pharmaceutical companies are reducing their exposure to prescription drugs.

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R&Dtalent is scarce in China and companies have to go to great lengths and to look at all the details to attract and retain good talent.

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The Wall Street Journal in a recent editorial called the European Union's June 2011 plan for Greece "the French Deception," because it favored French and German banks but made Greece's debt burden even less manageable. The Economist views the European Union actions with disdain and says they are sure to fail. It is skeptical whether the spending cuts will work because Greece's politicians are not likely to address the problems of poor tax and other payments collection, and is too interconnected with favored groups and lobbies to be able to take the needed actions. And spending cuts will fall hard on ordinary Greeks. Even with job cuts the sense is that it will fall not on full time civil servants with permanent contracts but people with temporary contracts. The Economist cites the example of items such as the overgenerous markup allowed for pharmacists that adds another 1.5 billion euros to the budget which will remain untouched as an example of many such items where the cuts will not fall because of strong lobbies and favored interests. The privatization scheme is deemed unrealistic because it expects to raise 51 billion euros in a crash sale of assets, which only makes it more likely that assets could fall into the hands of cronies with the right connections. The current efforts only make ordinary Greeks worse off with spending cuts and new taxes. The negative impact on economic growth of the austerity cuts creates the prospect for a deeper recession, political turmoil, and a debt default....

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The Congressional Budget Office says the U.S. is likely to experience "a significant recession" if Congress does not prevent tax increases and spending cuts setup for January 2013. If the Bush era tax cuts expire as scheduled at the end of 2012, these tax increases and spending cuts of $100 billion on military and other programs would reduce the deficit in the fiscal year ending Sept 30, 2013 to $641 billion from the $1.13 trillion level at fiscal year end Sept 30, 2012. The impact would be to reduce the budget deficit from 7.3% of GDP to about 4%. The result- a contraction in GDP by 2.9% in the first half of 2013, and 0.5% for the full year, and unemployment would rise to 9.1% at the end of 2013 from about 8% today. If Congress postpones the tax increases and spending cuts the deficit would be at $1.04 trillion or 6.5% of GDP and unemployment would remain at about 8% at the end of 2013. A 9% unemployment rate with the "fiscal cliff' means 2 million fewer jobs. Romney's plan is to extend all the Bush era tax cuts for 1 more year and no spending cuts till he has a chance to make hs own review on spending cuts in 2013. Obama's plan is for extending all Bush era tax cuts except for those earning more than $250,000- resulting in savings of $2 billion in 2013 and $824 billion in 10 years- and making smaller spending cuts than Romney....

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Russian and China sign a contract for Russian natural gas from undeveloped fields in Siberia during Putin's visit to Beijing in May 2014. The 30 year contract is for about $400 billion. China gets natural gas at prices about 25-40% below the current cost of importing liquefied natural gas from Australia, Qatar, Malaysia and other countries, according to RBC Capital Markets. For the last decade China and Russia have failed to agree on a price. In these negotiations a price was reached but is being kept a commercial secret. China imports large amounts of natural gas by pipeline from Turkmenistan at about $10 per million British Thermal Units (BTU's). Gazprom needs about $12 per million BTU's to break even. The two Siberian fields are the Kovykta field and Chayanda field which would remain undeveloped without the deal to supply China. Russia will spend about $55 billion for pipelines and infrastructure on its side, and China $20 billion. China's needs for natural gas were 170 billion cubic metres in 2013, growing to about six times consumption of about 30 billion cubic metres in 2000, according to China's NDRC. This is expected to reach 420 billion cubic metres by 2020. Currently 17.7 million metric tons come by pipeline mostly from Turkmenistan and 15.5 million metric tons of LNG mostly from Qatar and Australia, according to China General Customs Administration. The deal will put on hold higher cost LNG projects for Asian countries and make mores gas available at reduced prices in Asia, according to analysts....

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In this Agenda column Simon Nixon takes on the U.S. Treasury's criticism of Germany for its current account surplus of 7% of GDP in 2012, and not doing enough for the economies of southern Europe. The German government called it "incomprehensible." Nixon says it is better for the German economy to remain strong and to boost competitiveness and consumer spending in Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece. He says the low eurozone inflation of annualized 0.7% for September 2013, which prompted the ECB to cut rates by 0.25%, is healthy to the extent that consumer prices are declining to adjust to a decline in wages. The reduction in labor costs is a way to restore lost competitiveness, just as Germany did in the last decade. The criticism is considered by many economists to be misdirected, and seen as "incomprehensible" by Germans, as Germans ask what would the U.S. have them do- provide stimulus when the government debt to GDP ratio is currently 82%, increase wages and how would this help Southern Europeans. Focussing on Germany's current account surplus says Nixon, is obscuring the larger issues of increasing consumer and business confidence and spending in the eurozone, and increasing bank lending. The new ECB bank resolution arrangements and other changes including deposit insurance if done right should help the recapitalization and restructuring needed for restoring bank lending to support recovery. Spain is furthest along in regaining competitiveness, with changes in Portugal, Italy and Greece also supporting a gradual return to growth....

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Robert Shiller explains why price increases in U.S. housing are likely to remain at inflation adjusted 1-2 % a year in coming years. The Zillow-Pulsenomics Home Price Expectations Survey, incorporating 100 forecasters, and the S&P Case/Shiller Composite Index Futures, as of Dec. 2012, both show this modest growth for the next 5 years. The sharp price increases of 2012, with the S&P/ Case-Shiller 20 City Index up 9% from March to Sept. 2012, are seen as partly seasonal and not likely to last. Reasons he cites against the possibilities of another U.S. housing price surge are a more regulated housing market, wary buyers, lower economic growth, preferences for renting vs buying, and harder to rent detached single family homes. Recent housing price increases also include seasonal fluctuations and could moderate in coming months, says Shiller. History shows only one housing price boom in the U.S. in the last hundred years, with real prices increasing 68% from 1942 to 1953. By comparison the price surge in home prices from 1997 to 2006 was 86% in real terms, which was reversed almost entirely by 2012. The Census Bureau statistics show the home ownership rate declining to 65.5% in the third quarter of 2012 from 69% in the third quarter of 2006. Karl Case said in an op-ed in the NYT in 2010- the investment in a home was never meant to be a way to pay the bills and enjoy an artificially high standard of living, and only seen as a safe investment for most of American history. ...

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As Citigroup shares dropped to $3.77 a share last week abruptly losing 50% of their value in a week, the Federal Reserve, Treasury and the FDIC were in negotiations over the weekend with Citigroup. Mr Paulson had several discussions with Robert Rubin, influential executive and director of Citicorp. And Citicorp CEO Vikram Pandit spoke with regulators and lawmakers. The deal that was worked out is as follows. Under the deal about $306 billion of largely residential and commercial real estate loans and certain other assets, which will remain on the balance sheet, will be backed up by Citigroup and the government. Any losses will be shared in the following manner. The first $29 billion in losses on that portfolio will be Citigroup's responsibility. Any losses over the $29 billion will be shared 10% by Citigroup and 90% by the government. Of the government's losses Treasury will use $5 billion from the bailout fund, FDIC bear the next $10 billion in losses, and the Federal Reserve will guarantee any additional losses above this $15 billion. What will the government get in exchange? Citigroup will issue $7 billion of preferred stock to government regulators. In addition the government is buying $20 billion in preferred stock in Citigroup with all preferred shares paying a 8% dividend. The other aspects of the deal are that all dividend payments by Citigroup will be halted for 3 years, certain executive compensation restrictions, and Citigroup will put in place the FDIC's loan modification plan which is similiar to the plan it recently announced....

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Stanley-Becker of the Washington Post looks at the story of Horst Kasner, Lutheran pastor in East Germany, Angela Merkel's father. In 1954 when Angela was born, her father moved the family to East Germany, then called the German Democratic Republic. The family settled in 1957 near the town of Templin in the Brandenburg countryside. He had an idealism based on the Lutheran faith and believed at the time that it was possible to build a East German Protestanism that reconciled with the professed socialist ideals of the GDR. Over three decades that faith was tested and by 1990 Kasner was known for his dissent to the state repression practiced by the GDR limiting free expression and religious beliefs. He worried about the domination of economic thinking even in the churches after the reunification.   Angela Merkel was close to her mother, Herlind Kasner, who joined the Social Democrats after reunification. Her brother joined the Greens. Merkel joined the movement called the Democratic Awakening in 1989, which merged with the Christian Democrats after reunification. Horst Kasner died in 2011 about 6 years after Merkel became chancellor. Speaking at a church in Templin in 2014, Merkel said what she believes- "God created every human being. We should strive for perfection. But we can make mistakes." To some Merkel remains inscrutable, hard to make out. This may be because she retains some of the thoughtful way her father meditated on what life was about and how best to live it.  ...

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Japan's governing LDP party wins over two thirds of the seats in parliament in a snap election called one year before the end of the term in office. Prime minister Abe's popularity by summer 2017 dropped to about 30%, and yet with a divided opposition he managed to win the election with a large majority. The opposition led by the Democratic Party and Tokyo Governor Mrs Koike fragmented with the formation of new parties, Yuriko Koike's Party of Hope, and the Consitutional Democratic Party. Mrs. Koike failed to keep the opposition united with some missteps including asking for a loyalty pledge from candidates. This election win makes it possible for Abe to get a third term as leader of the LDP and eventually becoming the prime minister with the longest term in office. Abe had a poor start during his first effort as prime minister when he resigned in less than a year. This is a comeback for Shinzo Abe from that difficult period. Yet the constitutional changes to support Japan's Self Defense Forces with the growing threat from North Korea are not getting the same level of support. Opinion remains divided on that issue.  One aspect of this election is that very few women candidates are running for parliament. In contrast to the election in Britain with more women running for office and getting elected, in Japan's 2017 snap election less than 10% of candidates elected are women. ...

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This article on the main protagonists in the Conservative Party during the EU referendum in Britain shows how the narrow interests of a few Oxford educated politicians and their infighting has shaped the vote on Brexit. Gove, the Justice Secretary and Boris Johnson, former Mayor of London, have no idea what to do if they won in the Brexit vote. Both pull out of the leadership race after prime minister Cameron announces his planned resignation following a leadership vote in the party. Cameron and Osborne, the other two Oxford educated politicians, are caught up in the infighting in the Conservative Party which leads to Britain voting to leave the European Union. The article looks at the lives of the four male politicians who form an old boys club at one time and now are deeply divided with Cameron's wife Samantha and Gove's wife Sarah Vine once close friends, now along with their husbands no longer talking to each other. Also evident here is that Sarah Vine writing in the Daily Mail discloses more grief about all this messing up her social life than the way the vote to leave the EU will eventually affect the country's standing, its credit rating, and the economy, and how it affects the lives of ordinary British people. ...

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Opec cuts by 2.2 million barrels a day on December 17, 2008, and forward curve for Nymex crude oil prices which goes up $10 to $50.64 for the May 2009 contract and $70 from late 2012, offers liitle support in terms of higher oil prices. Some of it is explained by costs of storing oil on tankers and some of it by higher credit costs, and prices beyond 6 months do not have as much significance as the situation is uncertain. With Russia needing oil revenues and Iran and Venezuela also in the same situation, it looks increasingly unlikely that the strict reduction in production will hold. And things like higher inventories with a steeper downturn in 2009, can keep prices down for a long time.

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State run programs that help businesses to retain employees and avoid layoffs are a great way to operate during the lockdowns and gradual reopening. In these workshare programs workers work reduced hours and collect prorated unemployment benefits to offset lost wages. This avoids full layoffs. As the coronavirus is a temporary setback companies need their employees in a healthy economy. How to retain employees. Shift some of the cost of retaining employees to the U.S. or state governments funded by the federal government which comes in the form of unemployment benefits. Workers can then do shorter hours and get through this period.

Such programs are now set up by states in more than half of American states covering about 70% of payrolls. The problem is getting companies and employees to use this program. As of March 28 only 1% of 8.2 million employees have used the program, but it is growing.

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How taking sweep shots on the black soil pitch at Kotla where the ball tended to bounce low did the Australian batsmen in. Rahul Dravid and Rohit Sharma decided to remain calm and not keep changing the fielding. They decided to let Jadeja, Ashwin and Axar know that this was the best way to approach it. Australia lost wickets quickly after the Dravid Sharma huddle and decision to tackle the situation calmly, just when the Australian batsmen appeared to be settling in for a long run haul. Australia were all out for 113 from 62 for 1 wicket.

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The debate in the Constituent Assembly 1948 which let the draft words remain for the name of the country in Article 1 of the Constitution- "India, that is Bharat, shall be a union of states." Members expressed their thoughts on the inappropriateness of "India" and called for it to be clearly stated as Bharat, referring to India as the English name, or foreigner given name for the country. The movement of Gandhi that fought for and secured independence was based in the minds of the hundreds of millions of people as a movement for Bharat. 

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The US view of the response by India to a terrorist attack in Phalgam, Kashmir, Indian Union territory with strikes on terrorist camps. J.D. Vance US vice president says- “Our hope here is that India responds to this terrorist attack in a way that doesn’t lead to a broader regional conflict.” “And we hope, frankly, that Pakistan to the extent that they’re responsible, cooperates with India to make sure that the terrorists sometimes operating in their territory are hunted down and dealt with.” Vance was forced to cut short his visit to India after visiting Jaipur, Rajasthan in India when the terrorists with a history of aid from Pakistan killed 31 tourists in Phalgam, Kashmir. A long history of terrorist or militia trained in Pakistan has led to  terrorist incidents all over the world for the last three decades including the Kashmir and Afghanistan conflicts, the last having drawn Russia and the US into long wars which depleted their resources and led to loss of many lives. Yet much of the media remains oblivious of this in the US and Europe, and how it has led to the rise of China using this period of conflict under Bush and Obama since 2000, and the access to US, EU technologies and assistance. ...

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Getting savy employers to pay attention and getting employees to have a better sense of who they are, provides the topic of this article in the WSJ. It shows that different types of employee behaviour can be seen after two years of the pandemic, and employers need to pay attention to their needs.  There are ambitious employees and work to live types. Work to live advocates have put lifestyle and health as priorities learning from the pandemic. The great resignation and employers facing worker shortages have given them an opportunity to look for more flexibility in work life situations. Related to work to live type are double duty professionals of which women form the larger part. During the pandemic women took on more responsibilities for children with lockdowns and school closures. This also meant a more stressful life. All of these types of employees are now in the workplace. Employers can get better results by paying careful attention to worker needs. The types are not exclusive as double duty professionals also have the drive and the resilience to match ambitious employees in tackling new positions and responsibilities. The double duty professionals also share the aspirations of work to live advocates for a better work life balance that gives rest and relaxation, home and family, the importance it deserves for a full and complete life. There is one more type which is also part of the workplace that is entirely different. It is the disoriented new employee who has been left alone to find out about new responsibilities at work virtually without the necessary human contact. Related to this type is the desperate to connect type which is the type that has lived in relative isolation during the pandemic and is now hungering for human contact. There is also one more type closer to retirement that is the zest for life type that can be very productive in the workplace because of its experience and talent if given the chance. This type is not just there for the paycheck or career progress. Here the zest for life means the desire to connect with others and learn new things. Companies and management can accomplish more and be more responsive to needs of their employees by understanding these types and their different needs. Dorie Clark ,who teaches executive education at Duke and Columbia University ,says this is important for companies to retain talented employees and get the most out of them by understanding early on what motivates them. ...

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Spiegel Online's interview with Emmanuel Macron, on the TGV 8434 train from Bordeaux to Paris. He is joined by Mrs. Macron. Macron says he is aware that he does not have a bloc of core support like Ms. Le Pen, yet he says this means he will try that much harder for voters on the right and the left. He says their is no political renewal in the political class in France and that it remains closed. He says particular attention must be paid to rural France outside big cities like Bordeaux, Lyon, Marseille and Paris, where people have had a different encounter with globalization. On the European Union he sees the need to revitalize it by having a closer union focussed on countries that are interested in this. He sees the need for a joint finance minister and permanent head of Euro Group. This might be a smaller EU without countries such as Britain, and others who are not interested in a closer union. He does not agree with the idea that any member state of the EU can stop other member states from proceeding. Macron does not believe in moving to the right as in the Dutch election because he says people are "not idiots" and in France this has not worked for Nicholas Sarkozy, which has some truth to it as authenticity (and humility) matters to French voters. A personal approach worked for Fillon early on till the scandal over payments he received. Macron brings to this personal approach and relative youthfulness, his sense that he must appeal to all segments, rural and urban, educated and less educated, and at the same time be true to core values such as preserving the European Union, and authenticity in terms of views on Algeria. He also says he is aware he faces risks but that this is something he believes in deeply.   Macron has not hesitated to express his views on topics such as Algeria, calling it a crime against humanity, and later elaborating on what he meant. Macron says his movement En Marche is different in style and manner from the closed nature of French politics. He believes in transparency, term limits, and removing conflicts of interest in French politics, as a way to make a fresh start. The first round of voting is on April 23, 2017, followed by a second round of voting between two candidates.  ...

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This report from Brazil is of major relevance to India in its growth efforts, and for aging societies such as China. In many ways showing the price countries and the people pay when growth is mismanaged. A major crisis is hitting countries such as Brazil as fewer young people and young workers support an aging population of retirees. This is to be seen in the money allocated in Brazil's budget- only 3% goes to infrastructure, 3% to education, health gets 7%, and retirement system takes up as much as 43% of the budget. Increasing retirement obligations are nearly bankrupting the Rio de Janeiro state government.  At the core of this crisis is a steadily aging population that is happening now faster than in the developed world. Also part of this is the fact that fertility rates have dropped rapidly in Brazil, the rest of Latin America, and in China. It took just 27 years in Brazil and 11 years in China for fertility rates to drop from 6 to below 3, creating a situation where there are fewer young people to join the workforce as retirees live longer and the retired population increases. This report shows that it took 82 years for the fertility rates to drop from 6 to 2 in the U.S. so that the U.S. had a longer period in which to build up infrastructure.  Only 50% of Brazil's sewage is treated, and sanitation systems need investment. The average adult has about 8 years of schooling. An unfunded and unfundable social security system means infrastructure, health and public services such as transportation will remain unfunded for years to come. China's policymakers have done far better by building infrastructure rapidly yet face the same squeeze of aging population lower fertility rates as China's modernization continues. India needs to learn from such failures and successes in framing its own policies. Unrealistic giveaways or promises such as Brazil's retirement age of 55 and poor priorities of soccer stadiums in the northeast over sanitation, health, education, have a steep price. Good intentions are not enough as the Workers Party in Brazil granted pensions to farmers and informal workers without generating the sustained growth needed for funding the pension system, with $3 billion paid in and $36 going out for this added benefit.    ...

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Elections are won on messages that can be put in one line. FDR's in 1932 he stated clearly and applies to Biden in 2024- it has Abraham Lincoln's message from his writings. FDR said in 1932 "Give me your help not to win votes alone, but to win in this crusade to restore America to its own people." America in 2024 during the pandemic resembles America in 1932 during the Depression with widening gaps between the upper and lower classes and in opportunity for better life. Philip Bump in his Analysis in the Washington Post points out that the 2024 US election remains a referendum on the former president Trump. This is because as is already evident the voters have made up their minds, on Biden's side people that have decided they will not vote for Trump, and on Trump's side people who will vote for Trump. Biden has a stable vote when the election is referendum on Trump. Crime has come down so that crime is not so much of an issue. Immigration is also coming down and the Lankford- Biden immigration legislation did not pass to close the border as it was seen not attractive for the reelection bid on basis of immigration fears from the former president. Biden has take steps to close the border using executive action in the absence of Congress stalling on advice of the former president. The other issue is abortion and the selection of J.D. Vance for VP creates more fears about abortion bans for suburban women in all 51 states. Climate Change action is another issue and if stalled for 4 years it would cost the US upward of 1 trillion dollars to make up for action not taken till 2028. Donilon has said elections are fought on issues that can be put in one line for focus and concentration. For Democrats it is democracy in the words of FDR in his 1932 address: "Give me your help not to win votes alone but to win in this crusade to restore America to its own people." It is good to reflect and know that this is what president Abraham Lincoln would also have said knowing Lincoln's views from his writings on the this aspect of freedom in the Civil War in fighting the plantation economies of the Southern states. ...

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Based on this Washington Post sample of reader views on the presidential Debate, 4 of 5 readers in the sample are critical of the way the Post, NYT, WSJ are acting against the elected and popular transformative president of the US. What do Washington Post readers think of the way media magnates running Post, NYT, WSJ are trying to run the country in the face of a elected president who remains popular for the action he has taken on cost of living, climate change, manufacturing jobs, factories and supply chains, and is investing trillions of dollar in renewing America's manufacturing, Chips and science, and Infrastructure? Their campaigns are there for all to see against the president, even as the British election shows Keir Starmer of Labour saying "from 20 points behind to 20 points ahead," achieving a landslide even with only 2% increase in votes since 2019. Starmer too was written off just twelve months ago. The first letter is from Little Rock stating the Post, NYT, WSJ position. The second is from Linda Barnes of Ashland, New Hampshire, who faults the Post for not having the headline about "Disastrous debate performance by Trump who failed to answer most questions and lied relentlessly." Lauri Costello of Las Cruces, New Mexico, says every American would have benefitted from an in depth analysis of the debate rather than a focus on how each debater looked and spoke. Diana Hasuly of Ashburn, Virginia, says the debate was an opportunity to see two men's perspectives about the future of America, and the Post had done a great disservice to America, as have the NYT, WSJ and the Media in general, by not spelling what each man was offering America for the future. To take just three Climate change, manufacturing investment and jobs, infrastructure spending, Biden is getting so much done and has the plan for 2030, the former president has none, simply none and did not talk about this. Mark Parkhurst of Silver Spring, Maryland, says of the June 28 front page in the Post that the Post uses "falshoods" not "lies" when a lie needs to be called a lie from the former president. And says to be fair the Media needs to point out the actual achievements of president Biden not dwell on MAGA rhetoric. Is the Post or the Media in general overreaching, is it listening? What would Washington, Lincoln or FDR say?   ...